viernes, 30 de septiembre de 2011

Decisión de Christie, en un 50-50

Según dice la CBS:
Republican insiders familiar with Christie's thinking about a presidential bid are now putting the odds of him running at 50-50, telling CBS News there's a "decent chance" he will get in. If Christie rules it out, as one insider said, it's because he will see too many potential roadblocks in his path to the Republican nomination.

Huckabee desmiente que esté valorando entrar en campaña

"No estoy manteniendo reuniones, no estoy hablando con nadie, estoy contento con la decisión que tomé."

Dice que le llamen sólo "si alguien viene y pone 50 millones de dólares frente a mí y dice, todos los demás han renunciado y aquí tienes el dinero para empezar.'"

El rápido desmentido de Huckabee contrasta con el silencio de Christie. Desde que el New York Post publicó su historia hace ya más de 24 horas, ningún portavoz de Christie ha salido al paso.

Romney competitivo en, ¿Connecticut?

Public Policy Polling:
Connecticut isn't a place that would go on anybody's list of swing states but Barack Obama is in a statistical tie with Mitt Romney there, leading only 47-45.

Obama's poor showing in Connecticut is mostly a function of his own unpopularity. Despite having won it by 23 points in 2008 his approval numbers are now under water at 48/49. That represents a 17 point net shift in the wrong direction since PPP last polled the state in March- at that time Obama's approval was a positive 55/39 spread. The decline has come because he's unpopular with independents (41/53) and also because an unusually high 20% of Democrats disapprove of the job he's doing.

Romney's favorability is 41/42, not great numbers but better than he is doing in most states. In the head to head with Obama he takes independents by 12 points at 48-36 and gets crossover support from 14% of Democrats while losing just 9% of the Republican vote.

The competitiveness in Connecticut is limited to Romney. Against the rest of the Republican field Obama leads by double digits- it's 12 points against Rick Perry at 53-41, 13 against Ron Paul at 51-38, 16 against Newt Gingrich at 54-38, and 19 against Michele Bachmann at 55-36.
Connecticut es una base tradicional del establishment republicano (Greenwich, Yale, etc.) pero no es un estado competitivo en una elección presidencial desde 1988, cuando se lo llevó George Bush por unos cinco puntos.

Huckabee también estaría reconsiderándolo

Según ha podido saber Reuters:
Mike Huckabee has been approached by Republican and conservative activists unhappy with the current crop of presidential hopefuls and he is considering entering the fray, two sources who have spoken with Huckabee told Reuters.

The former Arkansas governor, who made a splash by winning the Iowa caucuses as a candidate in 2008, announced last May on his Fox News show that he would not enter the race.

But the conservative Huckabee, who appeals to evangelical Christians and is seen as an effective campaigner, is taking another look at jumping in, said the two sources, who are close to Huckabee. They spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity.

"He is entertaining the request for conversations about it," one of the sources said. "I do not think it is a complete 100 percent 'I'm reconsidering' but he hasn't shut the door on it."

One of the sources said Huckabee was urged to enter after the recent stumbles of Texas Governor Rick Perry, who appeals to a similar right wing of the Republican party.

Fotos de campaña: bajo el mismo techo

Demócratas y republicanos del municipio de Bonhomme, en Missouri, arrendaron el mismo edificio como centro local de operaciones de campaña en 1964. Divideron el edificio por la mitad y cada bando colocó en su lado los carteles de sus candidatos locales y presidenciales. En la foto vemos a una mujer negra y un hombre blanco colocando carteles de LBJ y Goldwater, respectivamente.

Florida adelanta su primaria a enero; lío a la vista

St. Petersburg Times:
Florida agreed to withstand party penalties and formally shook up the primary calendar Friday and officially set Florida's primary date for Jan. 31.

The legislatively dominated committee rejected a Democratic motion to set the date for Super Tuesday, March 6, and accepted a plan to make Florida's primary on the last Tuesday in January.

"Florida has more voters than all of those states combined and has an incredible amount of diversity. It is a reflection of the national interest and Florida ought to be an earlly state,'' said Sen. John Thrasher.
El tío Bill estaría orgulloso de la rebeldía de Florida.

Romney y Huckabee, juntos

Enemigos mortales hace cuatro años, parece que han remendado su relación, y Mitt Romney será el invitado del show de Huckabee este sábado en Fox News.

Andrea M. Saul publica un par de fotos tomadas durante la grabación del programa.

Huckabee parece que se haya comido a Chris Christie.

Hay tiempo y espacio para nuevos candidatos

Es lo que cree Walter Shapiro, uno que cuando algunos todavía no habíamos nacido ya estaba cubriendo campañas presidenciales:
This weekend in Little Rock, Bill Clinton and an all-star cast of political alumni will celebrate the twentieth anniversary of his formal entry into the 1992 presidential race. But the candidate decision that did the most to bequeath Clinton the Democratic nomination did not occur until December 20, 1991. That was when New York Governor Mario Cuomo decided not to board the chartered plane waiting at the Albany airport to whisk him to New Hampshire to file his last-minute papers to enter the first primary.

That’s right—Cuomo got to wait until late in the Christmas shopping season to decide whether to run for president. Despite the frustration of the press corps at his Hamlet on the Hudson act, Cuomo’s prospects in the February 18 New Hampshire primary were bright. As Jack Germond and Jules Witcover wrote in their chronicle of the 1992 campaign, Mad as Hell, “Mario Cuomo was not Bruce Babbitt forced to ride a bicycle across Iowa in 1987 trying to win a little press attention … Cuomo was a national figure whose campaign from the start inevitably would draw heavy television network and newspaper coverage.”

What gives this Cuomo retrospective currency is the conventional wisdom that it is already too late for Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, or even the eternally dithering Rudy Giuliani to enter the GOP race. Somehow 60 days to the New Hampshire primary was long enough back in 1992, when social media referred to chatty local TV anchors. But in an age of Fox News (launched in 1996), Facebook, Internet fund-raising, and non-stop political coverage, the new political orthodoxy is that 100 days is insufficient for a candidate unless you are Napoleon mounting a comeback. Why is it that faster-than-ever political communication automatically dictates an elongated campaign season?

(...) There is certainly an opening for another top-tier GOP contender. The press is already showing signs of boredom with the Mitt Romney versus Rick Perry smack-downs—especially if they drag on until April or May. GOP voters give off a whiff of dissatisfaction with both Perry’s competence and Romney’s chameleon history. With the erratic Newt Gingrich again scoring in double-digits in national polls and pizza magnate Herman Cain suddenly getting a burst of attention, a none-of-the-above narrative is gaining traction in the Republican Party.

(...) There is an illusion that starting early prepares a candidate to craft deft responses to attacks on weak spots in his political record or his personal life. In truth, almost every campaign scrambles when it is on the firing line. Months of campaigning did not prevent Barack Obama from flailing in 2008 when Jeremiah Wright’s sermons suddenly dominated the headlines. Back in the fall of 2000, George W. Bush, the embodiment of a tightly scripted candidate, was blindsided when the press unearthed a drunk-driving arrest in Maine. If he enters the GOP race, Christie will undoubtedly have some rocky moments, but it is questionable whether starting early would have made that much difference in how the fledgling New Jersey governor responds.

Make no mistake, some deadlines matter in presidential politics like the precise dates for getting on primary ballots. Although the entire GOP primary calendar is in flux, the best guess is that the deadline for filing for the Florida primary will be Halloween, with other early states like New Hampshire following soon after. While Henry Cabot Lodge did win the 1964 New Hampshire GOP primary on a write-in vote, resorting to that pencil-based strategy would be a daunting price for, say, Christie to pay for his indecisiveness.

The enduring truth is that weird things can happen when voters are dissatisfied with the choices they are offered in the presidential primaries. Late in the 1976 primary season, Democrats yearning for an establishment nominee like Hubert Humphrey tried to organize an ABC (Anybody But Carter) movement. As a result of these machinations, Jimmy Carter lost 10 primaries in May and June to Frank Church and Jerry Brown, two candidates who only began actively campaigning with the first crocuses of spring. The stop-Carter effort ultimately foundered, but it is an enduring reminder of the power of buyer’s remorse in presidential politics.

Every signal suggests that politics this year is as unsettled as the overall national mood. Jump-starting a campaign was certainly not a panacea for Tim Pawlenty, who might actually be an intriguing figure in the GOP race if he had entered it about now. Some year some candidate is going to reinvent the rules about starting early, which really only date back to George McGovern in 1972 and Carter in 1976.

In a 21st century media age—when images can be forged in minutes—it may matter less when you get in the presidential race than what you do when you get there. Sometimes I think that the Republicans just might nominate the first conservative who rescues a kitten from a tree while the Fox News cameras are rolling.

Ron Paul: más de 5 millones en el tercer cuarto

Wall Street Journal:
Rep. Ron Paul’s presidential campaign raised at least $5 million during the past three months, campaign spokesman Gary Johnson told Washington Wire.
Es más que en el segundo cuarto (4.5 millones).

Qué podemos esperar de la recaudación del tercer cuarto

First Read:
*** Needing a boost: With the 3rd fundraising quarter ending today, all eyes are on Rick Perry's first finance numbers. It's been a rough couple of weeks for the Texas governor, but a strong fundraising showing -- say in the neighborhood of $15 million since announcing his bid in mid-August -- would give him a much-needed boost and would solidify his chances of competing financially with Mitt Romney (who raised $18 million last quarter). More than that amount would signal some SERIOUS fundraising chops for Perry, while less than that would be considered trouble for him. Back in June, Tim Pawlenty had a rough debate performance and followed up with a poor fundraising number ($4 million-plus). The question for Perry: Can he post a total that doesn't draw any comparisons to Pawlenty? Right now, Perry World is simply promising more than $10 million.

*** Expect the Romney and Obama hauls to be smaller than last quarter: Besides Perry, the other big players are expected to post fundraising numbers less than what they raised in the 2nd quarter. It's not surprising, after all: In 2007, most of the major candidates (Obama, Romney, and McCain) had lower numbers in the 3rd quarter, which includes the usually slow month of August. (An exception was George W. Bush, who raised $50 million in the 3rd quarter of '03.) Per the Boston Globe, Romney's camp “is on pace to raise between $11 million and $13 million” (down from $18 million last quarter). The campaign would not confirm those figures to First Read, saying: “We are going to raise considerably less than what we did in our first reporting period, but we will still meet our finance goals for this quarter.” Meanwhile, Obama's re-election campaign says it's expected raise a combined $55 million for the campaign and the DNC -- less than the combined $86 million last quarter. One big reason why, per the campaign: Several fundraisers were canceled during the debt-ceiling negotiations.

*** On the Bachmann, Paul, and Huntsman hauls: As for the rest, Bachmann said yesterday that her campaign “will probably be reporting even more than we have brought in before,” NBC’s Jamie Novogrod reports. (Bachmann raised just more than $4 million last quarter.) But Bachmann’s fundraising costs a lot to maintain (direct mail), and the Iowa Straw Poll was EXPENSIVE for her, so pay attention to her cash on hand. Paul reportedly will bring in $5 million for the 3rd quarter. And don’t expect a good number from Team Huntsman; there’s a reason why the campaign moved its headquarters from Florida to New Hampshire.

Note: The campaigns have until Oct. 15 to file their 3rd quarter reports to the Federal Election Commission.

Michelle Obama de campaña en el super

Michelle Obama fue fotografiada con visera y gafas de sol mientras hacía la compra en un supermercado cualquiera de Alexandria, Virginia, suburbios de Washington DC.

No penséis que va cada semana y que de pronto la han pillado.

"Thank You Governor Perry"

Team Romney insiste en flagelar a Perry con la inmigración.

Obama, muy vulnerable en los estados morados

The Daily Caller:
ThePurplePoll, conducted by Purple Strategies, surveyed the so-called “purple electorate” in “the 12 states that are most likely to determine whether President Obama will win re-election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin.”

Obama has some trouble in those states, but neither Romney nor Perry (the two frontrunners and the only two candidates surveyed) is particularly well-liked.

Taken as a whole, 53 percent of voters in the “purple” states said they disapprove of the job Obama is doing as president, while 41 percent approve.

Perry and Romney, however, both have upside down favorability in the states. Twenty-four percent of voters said they had a favorable view of Perry, while 44 percent had an unfavorable view. Romney’s numbers were slightly better, with 32 percent saying they had a favorable opinion of him and 39 percent saying they had an unfavorable opinion.

Matched against Obama, Romney would lead 46 percent to 43 percent in the states, according to the poll. Among independent voters, Romney leads Obama 48 percent to 39 percent.

Obama, however, has a narrow lead over Perry in the swing states, taking 46 percent to Perry’s 44 percent. Among independent voters, Perry trails Obama 41 percent to 46 percent, performing significantly worse than Romney.

Obama polled highest in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin — the states that make up “the heartland.” His approval rating there is 46 percent approval, and 47 percent disapproval. In the three states he leads Perry by 9 percentage points and Romney by 4 percentage points.

“The southern swing,” made up of Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, is where Obama is the weakest. His approval rating is just 39 percent, with 54 percent disapproval. He trails Romney by five points, and ties with Perry.

El Star-Ledger confirma que puede que Christie se presente

El Star-Ledger de Newark, periódico de mayor tirada en New Jersey, confirma lo adelantado por el NY Post:
Gov. Chris Christie is seriously rethinking his months of denials and may launch a campaign for the White House after all, a source close to the governor said tonight.

In the last week, Christie has been swayed away from his earlier refusals to run by an aggressive draft effort from a cadre of Republicans and donors unhappy with the GOP field, said the source, who was not authorized to speak publicly and requested anonymity.

Christie has a small window of opportunity to make his final decision, and some political experts think he has only days to declare.

(...) At a campaign rally here today for Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Christie continued to criticize Obama’s leadership, but ignored several questions from reporters about whether he would seek the White House.

Santorum en On The Record (Fox News)

Gingrich en The News Hour (PBS)

Habló de su 21st Century Contract with America.

jueves, 29 de septiembre de 2011

En Trenton empiezan a creérselo
One of the top Democrats in New Jersey tells Salon that the Trenton world is suddenly treating a presidential candidacy by Gov. Chris Christie as a real possibility.

"It's more serious now," Richard Codey, who served as acting governor from 2004 to 2006, said in a phone interview Thursday afternoon. "Definitely. No question about it."

A story in Thursday's New York Post -- written by Josh Margolin, a former Star-Ledger political reporter who is well-connected to Christie World -- claims that urgent pleas from Republican luminaries have helped convince him to rethink his long-standing opposition to running.

Among New Jersey politicos, Codey said, the sense is that "it's more likely that he'd run today as opposed to two weeks ago. When you've got Nancy Reagan, Barbara Bush and all those Republican bigwigs calling you, saying you've got to do it for the party, you've got to do it for the country -- it's intoxicating. A lot of people would get drunk off that."

"I think as each day goes by and more and more people ask him to do it, the more flattered he is ... and it makes him more likely to do it than not, in my opinion," Codey said.
*Trenton: capital administrativa del estado de New Jersey.

Huntsman se recluye en New Hampshire

La realidad está transformando lo que empezó como una ambiciosa campaña nacional, en un esfuerzo regional.

Huntsman ha anunciado el cierre de sus oficinas centrales de Orlando y recortes de personal para establecerse en New Hampshire con recursos más limitados.

Es una buena decisión porque su despliegue de medios hasta ahora no se correspondía con el verdadero alcance de su candidatura. Y sólo puede volver a crecer a partir de New Hampshire.

The New York Times:
Jon M. Huntsman Jr. is moving his presidential campaign headquarters to New Hampshire from Florida, aides said Thursday, a decision that underscores that his path to the nomination is wholly dependent on trying to score an upset in the nation’s first primary.

The Huntsman campaign has been focusing intensively on New Hampshire for weeks, all but abandoning the three-state strategy that once included South Carolina and Florida. But the decision to close the Orlando office and relocate the staff to Manchester signals a new sense of urgency and is part of what one adviser characterized as a “course correction.”

The news was delivered to campaign workers in Orlando by senior aides on Thursday afternoon. The move will include staff layoffs, aides said, to eliminate duplication and focus limited resources on organizing efforts in New Hampshire.

Romney anunciará entre 11 y 13 millones; Paul, 5 millones

Es lo que adelanta el Boston Globe a un día del cierre del tercer cuarto del año.
Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney is on pace to raise between $11 million and $13 million for the latest fund-raising quarter, a haul that would be much lower than the $18.2 million haul he brought in during the previous three months, according to a source familiar with the campaign’s finances.

Romney’s strong performance in a trio of recent debates had helped his fund-raising by motivating his existing supporters, but it was not enough to move some of the fence-sitters over to his camp, according to the source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the campaign has not publicly released its numbers yet.

(...) Romney aides have predicted that his top campaign rival – Texas Governor Rick Perry – will raise more than he will, even though Perry has been in the race for only six weeks.

(...) Representative Ron Paul, the Texas Republican, is planning to report at least $5 million, according to campaign manager Jesse Benton.

(...) Romney raised $18.2 million during the first fund-raising period after he announced his candidacy in the spring. That was far more than any of his rivals.

But it appears that Romney will be behind the pace that he set during his first presidential campaign, in 2008, when the former Massachusetts governor was relatively unknown on the national stage and was competing with a strong field of fundraisers.

It’s a signal either that the down economy is causing donors to contribute less, or that the GOP financiers are still not sold on Romney.

During the first six months of his last campaign, he raised $35 million and also loaned himself $8.8 million. During the first six months of this campaign, he appears on pace to raise about $31 million. The millionaire former venture capitalist hasn’t loaned himself any money during this campaign, and won’t do so this quarter, according to Gitcho.

Independent outside groups have also been raising money for both Romney and Perry and are expected to play a major role in the primary race. An outside group dedicated to helping Romney, Restore our Future PAC, reported raising $10 million during the first six months of this year.

Bachmann no tiene dinero para pagar las facturas

New York Post:
Insiders are whispering that the Tea Party darling’s financials are grim and she may be out of the race before she makes it to the Iowa caucus in February, even though she has a strong base in the state. Sources tell us say Bachmann’s skeletal staff are holding their collective breath until the deadline to disclose her fundraising report on Oct. 15. Meanwhile, we hear a computer vendor has called her campaign headquarters threatening to shut down the power due to an outstanding bill. Sources say she had about $400,000 at the beginning of September, but also stacks of bills.

“She should have been focusing on big donors about three months ago,” a source said. “She’s only cultivated low dollar donors with direct mailings and that’s hurt her.”

But at a rally in Virginia yesterday, Bachmann declared that she does not intend to back out of the race. “We intend to be the comeback kid in this race,” she said. Her rep said, “None of that is true.”

Fotos de campaña: en el metro

Publicidad electoral de Jimmy Carter en el metro de Nueva York, en 1976.

Christie, "considerando seriamente" presentarse

Tranquilos, no es un déjá vu. Es una información del New York Post de hace un rato.

Según fuentes de su entorno, algo habría cambiado en las últimas horas después de que hayan intervenido en el asunto Nancy Reagan, George W. Bush y Henry Kissinger, y Christie tomará una decisión la próxima semana.
After months of hedging, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is giving serious thought to jumping into the ring for a GOP presidential run -- and could make his decision next week, The Post has learned.

The announcement may come as soon as Monday, said sources familiar with Christie’s thinking.

The renewed consideration about a White House run came after prodding this week from some Republicans he idolizes, including former First Lady Nancy Reagan, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, and former President George W. Bush, sources said.

“It’s more than just flattering,” a source close to Christie said, adding they helped convince Christie that he not only could win, but that he has what it takes to be president.

(...) Christie pals said the pol’s “mind-blowing” experience at the Reagan library in California Tuesday changed his thinking.

“We need you. Your country needs you to run for president,” one woman pleaded after Christie’s moving speech there.

Yet when the governor first arrived at the Reagan library, he was still telling his inner circle he was a definite “no” for a presidential run -- and planned to make that clear in his appearance.

Something changed that night, sources said.

Behind the scenes, sources said, the discussions about running took on a more serious and “surreal tenor,” as the encouragement from Reagan, Kissinger, Bush and others began to sink in.

Even Christie’s wife, Mary Pat, has warmed to the idea of becoming First Lady after months of discouraging a run.

She originally thought a presidential campaign would upend their family. But she got a phone call from former First Lady Barbara Bush, who reassured her the challenge is manageable, said a source close to the Christie family.

Mary Pat Christie now is committed to supporting whatever her husband decides, the source said.

Insiders say Christie is ready to put a presidential campaign together “pretty fast.”

And he’d have to, since filing deadlines for key primary ballots are just weeks off.

Months ago, his top advisers roughed out a finance plan that could be put into play immediately, insiders said.

The heightened buzz has Washington Republicans worked up too.

SurveyUSA: Romney y Cain, mano a mano en Florida

In the Florida Republican Primary for President, Mitt Romney at 27% edges Herman Cain at 25%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa. Rick Perry finishes 3rd with 13%, others further back. The Primary is tentatively, and controversially, scheduled for 4 months from today, on 01/31/12,

Romney is strong among older voters, women, moderates and in Southeast Florida. Cain is strong among men, younger voters, Tea Party members, affluent voters and in Northeast Florida. Perry is strong among those who say they are "very conservative," among those who attend religious services regularly, among Evangelicals and in Northwest Florida.

Newt Gingrich at 6%, and Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, effectively tie for 4th place. Jon Huntsman, in 7th place, finishes ahead of Rick Santorum.

Perry pierde apoyos pero Romney no los gana

Nate Silver analiza los últimos sondeos nacionales:
Mr. Perry led in the CNN poll, the first one released after the debate, but his numbers slumped in the Fox News and YouGov polls. He averages about 22 percent of the vote across the three surveys, down materially from 28 percent in polls conducted between his first debate on Sept. 7, and Sept. 19.

However, any gains for Mr. Romney — in an absolute rather than relative sense — are hard to perceive. He averages 22 percent in the surveys, up only nominally from 21 percent before.

Instead, the candidate making the largest gains is Herman Cain, the Georgia entrepreneur who won a straw poll in Florida over the weekend. He’s up to 13 percent in the surveys, more than doubling the 6 percent that he had before.

The other candidate to make gains is Newt Gingrich — up to 10 percent from 7 percent.

The numbers for Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann have slipped somewhat, however. Mrs. Bachmann in particular, who was in the double-digits in many polls at her peak, is now down to about 5 percent of the vote. And a separate poll of Iowa voters shows her having fallen behind Mr. Romney there. (Although I wouldn’t put as much emphasis on that one because the pollster in question, American Research Group, has a dubious track record.)

Certainly, one way that Mr. Romney could win is if the support among the more conservative portion of the Republican electorate were divided among several different candidates. With the decline in Mr. Perry’s numbers, the landscape has become more favorable for him.

Mr. Romney’s odds of winning the nomination would improve, moreover, if his main opposition came from a candidate like Mr. Cain rather than Mr. Perry, since there is a much larger gap between the two in areas like fund-raising and establishment support. (Although I would not discount Mr. Cain’s chances entirely.)

At the same time, you have a candidate in Mr. Romney who has run a very good campaign, who has performed well in the debates, and who leads in fund-raising and endorsements — but who is still barely above 20 percent in surveys, and has made only marginal gains as a number of his rivals have stumbled.

Mr. Romney has emerged — or re-emerged — as the favorite; I’d give him roughly even odds of winning the nomination. But it’s unlikely to be a smooth and linear path, and the alternate hypothesis that Republican voters are determined to pick someone more conservative than him has some support in this data.

That’s not to paper over the problems of Mr. Perry, who entered the race in a strong strategic position and has failed to make much of it. It’s possible, moreover, that the fallout of the Sept. 22 debate is not yet fully realized in the surveys; Mr. Perry performed somewhat worse in the Fox News and YouGov polls than in the CNN poll, which postdated it by a couple of days.

In general, however, I’d caution against using terms like “momentum” when discussing the nomination race (or polling results under most other circumstances). We’ll be publishing a separate article on this shortly, but there’s not much evidence of serial correlation in polling data: candidates who decline from one period to the next are just as likely to rebound as to see their numbers continue falling.

Note, for instance, that the candidates to have made the largest gains recently, Mr. Cain and Mr. Gingrich, had numbers that were going in the other direction before that. And at this point four years ago, there were plenty of negative stories circulating about the polling trajectory of Barack Obama and John McCain.

Giuliani envía un emisario a NH para evaluar apoyos

Associated Press:
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani dispatched a key emissary to New Hampshire on Wednesday to gauge their interest in his possible presidential bid.

One of the mayor's closest political advisers, Jake Menges, hosted private meetings with a host of key Republicans in the state, including Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas, likely gubernatorial candidate Kevin Smith, Congressman Charlie Bass and GOP activist Stephen Talarico, owner of Manchester Harley-Davidson.

"Jake said to me, 'Just keep your powder dry for another few weeks,'" Talarico told The Associated Press.

(...) Smith, a Giuilani supporter in 2008, said he met with Menges in a Manchester coffee shop Wednesday afternoon.

"They were just gauging my thoughts about whether there's room for his candidacy," Smith said. "I told them that my sense, based on the calls for (New Jersey Gov.) Chris Christie to get in, is there's still some discontentment among Republicans and there could be a spot for another candidate. That being said, time is certainly winding down."

Menges did not indicate a timeline for Giuliani's final decision.

Christie sabe exactamente lo que hace

Washington Post:
No, Christie didn’t say he was running. But he also didn’t say he wasn’t running. And that makes all the difference at the moment.

(...) Here’s why that answer matters: Given the amount of attention Christie has gotten since Texas Gov. Rick Perry imploded in the second half of last Thursday’s Orlando debate, he and his political team knew a) that every word he uttered in the Reagan speech would be parsed by the national media and b) he would be asked by someone about 2012.

If he really wanted to totally rule out the prospect of bid, Christie could have simply said something to the effect of: “I am so flattered by all of the calls for me to run. It’s a tremendous honor. But my answer is still ‘no’.”

Contrast how Christie is handling the renewed speculation about a national bid with what Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan did last month when his name resurfaced as a potential candidate. Within days, Ryan was out with a statement saying: “While humbled by the encouragement, I have not changed my mind, and therefore I am not seeking our party’s nomination for President.”

That Christie has not chosen to do the same is, um, not by accident. That said, it also doesn’t mean he is running for president. It simply means he isn’t ready to kill off the idea just yet.

The “why” behind Christie’s refusal to refuse is far tougher to figure out. Among the possibilities:

1) He wants to raise his national profile (and more national money) and knows that the second he — finally, finally for real this time — rules out running, his capacity to do both things drops drastically.

2) He is genuinely reconsidering the race and want to buy himself some time to sort through the details. By keeping the door open — even a crack — he knows that the chatter will keep up both in the activist and donor community. And, whether or not he means to do so, you can bet Christie’s equivocation will make it harder for the likes of Perry and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney to close the deal with still-on-the-fence major donors in this final week of the third fundraising quarter.

What we know: Christie is up to something. He has proven himself to be a very savvy manipulator of his public image during his first few years in office and has a political team — led by Mike Duhaime who managed former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s 2008 presidential bid — that is well-versed in how the presidential game works.

Put simply: Accidents do not happen at this level of politics. They just don’t. That Christie didn’t rule out a run on Tuesday was not an honest mistake. Now we wait to see what it all means.

Romney en Manchester, NH

En una rueda de prensa anterior a un town hall meeting con votantes, el Gobernador Romney se refirió a la posible candidatura de Chris Christie:

"Chris es un gran amigo, un gran tipo, un hombre de lo más original. Es un Gobernador al que me gustaría ver en más escenarios políticos, y quién sabe, puede que se presente. Sería divertido que se presentara."

Durante el town hall meeting se refirió a las palabras de David Axelrod que horas antes había descrito la campaña de re-elección de Obama como una "lucha titánica". Romney aprovechó para hacer un paralelismo entre el barco de Obama y el Titanic: "el capitán del barco ha ido distraído, si no ocupado o dormido la mayor parte del viaje."

Herman Cain en The Situation Room (CNN)

Herman Cain se ha dado cuenta de que su buena suerte depende de la desgracia de Rick Perry, más que de la de ningún otro candidato, porque compiten por los mismos votantes, en los mismos estados.

"Hoy no podría apoyar a Rick Perry como el nominado por una serie de razones," le dijo ayer a Wolf Blitzer, apuntando a su visión de la inmigración ilegal como la principal razón.

Huntsman en On The Record (Fox News)

Fox News: front-runner Romney; Cain triplica apoyos

Sondeo nacional de Fox News:
The new poll found Cain’s support has nearly tripled among GOP primary voters to 17 percent.

That’s up from 6 percent before this month’s debates, and puts him in what is essentially a three-way tie with Perry and Romney.

Cain has benefited not only from his debate performances, but also significant media attention after winning the Florida Republican Party’s straw poll on Saturday.

Perry now garners 19 percent, a drop of 10 percentage points from a month ago. That puts Romney back in the top spot with the support of 23 percent. Last month Romney was at 22 percent.

Newt Gingrich recovered some ground and now stands at 11 percent. Ron Paul receives the backing of 6 percent now compared to 8 percent before the September debates.

Bachmann registers 3 percent support, down from 8 percent in late August and a high of 15 percent in July.

The nomination preference question included only the names of announced candidates.

The order is similar when GOP primary voters were asked which candidate they have the most in common with: Perry tops that list at 17 percent, followed by Cain at 14 percent, Romney at 12 percent, Bachmann at 10 percent, Gingrich at 7 percent and Paul at 6 percent.

Bachmann en la Liberty University

La Congresista Bachmann habló de valores personales y responsabilidad, provocando alguna ovación y algún que otro amén del público cuando se refirió a su conversión al cristianismo y recordó que solía poner la alarma a las 5 de la mañana para levantarse a leer la Biblia.

No hizo ninguna referencia a sus rivales republicanos. Se concentró en rechazar la agenda de Obama.

miércoles, 28 de septiembre de 2011

¿Por qué no Mitt Romney?

David Frum defiende en The Week que el candidato que los republicanos necesitan lo tienen delante de sus narices.
Attention, Chris Christie fans. If you are looking for a Republican nominee who could actually do the job of president, who does not repel independent voters, who can survive a 90-minute debate without saying anything foolish, why the hell not Mitt Romney?

For three years, Republican activists, strategists, and donors have tried to find a plausible alternative to Romney, and again and again they have failed. For about 15 minutes, that alternative seemed at last to have materialized in the form of Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Perry still leads the national polls and is still raising money. Yet it's hard to miss the loud hiss of air escaping this particular balloon.

So maybe it's time to reconsider the long-standing frontrunner — the candidate who was more than conservative enough for party conservatives back in 2008 — and to rediscover his good points.

(...) There's no such thing as a perfect candidate. It's hard to predict who will and won't make an effective president. It's natural to repine over the candidates who actually exist and yearn for the candidate who is only imagined. Yet in this cycle, it may be the case that the best choice for Republicans and the country is the one that has been waiting there all along.

Kristol a Christie: no se trata de ti, se trata del país

Bill Kristol sigue llamando a filas a Christie con un nuevo artículo en Weekly Standard:
Christie’s answer is eloquent and sincere. But—if I may say so, and I say so with some diffidence—it seems incomplete.

Is it right, as Christie says, that “the reason [to run] has to reside inside” him? Doesn’t the reason reside more importantly in the crises the country faces? The reason fundamentally has little to do with what Chris Christie feels in his heart. It has everything to do what he thinks the nation needs. If he thinks he can benefit the nation, he should run.

It’s one thing for someone who has never run for office—a Colin Powell or a Bill Bennett or a David Petraeus—to decide he’s just not cut out for elective office, and to choose not to embark on that course. But Chris Christie—like Paul Ryan and Mitch Daniels, to mention only two others—already holds elective office. If any of them honestly thinks he could win the nomination and the presidency, and would be a better candidate and a better president than the rest of the Republican field—and if there are no show-stopping medical or family issues—doesn’t that public official have some obligation to step up to the plate?

You don’t have to “feel deeply in [your] heart” that you’re called to run for president. You have to think you’re the right man for the job. And, if that’s the case, you have a duty to your country to step forward.

It’s not about you. It’s about your country.

Límite Halloween

El 31 de octubre es la fecha límite para los nuevos candidatos que quieran competir en Florida. Naturalmente, pueden renunciar a hacerlo e inscribirse dos semanas más tarde en New Hampshire o hacerlo cuando les apetezca en Iowa. Incluso esperar hasta el año nuevo como se hacía antiguamente e inscribirse en grandes estados como NY, California, Ohio o Pennsylvania, pero no sería realista.

Possible presidential hopefuls like former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie may have more on their minds than trick-or-treaters and costumes this Halloween.

The date usually associated with candy-seeking children this year also marks the deadline to file to get on the Florida Republican primary ballot, likely to be held on January 31, 2012. It is the first of many deadlines candidates must meet in order to appear on the ballots in various state presidential primary contests.

The filing deadline for South Carolina's GOP primary is the following day, November 1. Other states with November filing deadlines include Michigan and Missouri, which require candidates to file paperwork by the 15th and the 22nd respectively.

In New Hampshire, state law says that the filing period ends the third Friday in November, which is the 18th, but Secretary of State William Gardner has the authority to change the filing period to accommodate an earlier primary date. The Granite State was tentatively scheduled to hold its primary in February, but will likely hold its contest in January to defend its first-in-the-nation status.

December marks at least three state filing deadlines: Tennessee (the 6th), Oklahoma (the 7th), and Texas (the 12th), all of which will hold primaries on March 6, 2012, also known as Super Tuesday.

At least two other Super Tuesday states have filing deadlines in early 2012. Massachusetts has a January 6 deadline while Vermont's deadline is January 9.

Arizona, which recently moved its presidential primary to February 28, also has a January 9 candidate filing deadline.

Caucuses, which are run by state parties, do not have the same rigid filing procedures as primaries, which are usually run by the state. The Iowa Republican caucuses, for example, have no official candidate filing deadline.

Newsmax entrevista a Rick Perry

El Gobernador admite que fue inapropiado decir que los que se oponen a las becas estatales para hijos de inmigrantes ilegales "no tienen corazón", pero se mantiene firme en su política migratoria, recordando que en Texas sólo 4 de los 181 miembros de la Legislatura votaron en contra de esa legislación porque, según él, no es un asunto migratorio sino educativo.

También se reafirma en su oposición a la construcción de un muro fronterizo, excepto en áreas metropolitanas.

Padre de Christie: "creo que derrotaría a Obama"

National Review:
Bill Christie, Gov. Chris Christie’s father, tells National Review Online that his son will make the final decision about a presidential bid. But as the governor mulls, he can count his father as one of many Republicans who would support him, should he jump into the presidential primary. “I know he’d be a great president,” Mr. Christie says. “He has always been a leader. I think he would beat [President] Obama.”

But don’t get too excited. “I’ve never asked him if he’s going to run,” Mr. Christie cautions. “I trust if it’s going to happen, I’d be hearing it from him. I tell him, just let me hear any good news, but let me hear it first, or at least before you announce it to the world.” Christie’s brother, Todd, he notes, is “very close to him and might know more than me. I don’t try to get into it.”

Of course, Mr. Christie doesn’t mind the chatter. “It’s been a great experience,” he laughs. “It’s good to be the father of someone who’s respected. I’m enjoying it. I’m into politics.” The key thing about 2012, he says, is ousting Obama, and whether it’s his son or someone else as the nominee, he is interested in helping the country move in a more conservative direction.

Reflecting on the boomlet, Mr. Christie is surprised, and flattered as a father, about how intense it has become. “You never expect what’s happening,” he says. “It’s like a pipe dream. It was really quick. In some ways, it’s fulfilling and rewarding to see that this has happened. The thing I love about it is, Chris is a smart guy, he deals with people well, and he doesn’t take a lot of B.S. Sure, there are those who say the ‘New Jersey’ style won’t go over across the country. But I think that’s wrong. I think most people like the approach. Like Reagan, you sit and listen, but when you’re asked to contribute, you lead.”

PPP: Romney, arriba en Florida

Public Policy Polling:
Mitt Romney continues to lead the way in Florida with 30% to 24% for Perry, 10% for Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, 7% for Herman Cain, 6% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Jon Huntsman, 2% for Rick Santorum, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

Perry had a poor debate performance in Florida Thursday night and our results suggest that the negative coverage he received from that did hurt him some in the state. We started this poll on Thursday night before the debate and in those interviews the race was neck and neck with Romney at 33% and Perry at 31%. But in interviews done Friday-Sunday Romney's lead expanded to double digits at 29-19. More telling might be what happened to Perry's favorability numbers after the debate- on Thursday night he was at 63/23 with Florida Republicans. Friday-Sunday he was at 48/36. Perry's poor performance may or may not prove to be a game changer nationally but it definitely appears to have hurt his image in the key state where it occurred.

(...) Moderates in Florida prefer Romney by a 32-15 margin over Perry and those describing themselves as 'very conservative' give their support to Perry by a 32-24 spread over Romney. Romney winning with the middle and Perry winning with the far right is what we find in pretty much every state. Romney's winning overall because he's up 36-24 with those identifying as 'somewhat conservative.' This really seems to be the swing voting bloc within the GOP electorate for this year. For the most part Perry's been leading that group in our polling since his entry so it's a very good sign for Romney that they may perhaps be swinging back in the other direction. Ultimately these voters who are conservative but not really far right/Tea Party types will probably determine who wins the nomination.

Other notes on Florida:

-People probably don't need another reminder that straw polls are meaningless in terms of broader implications but Herman Cain was at 14% when we surveyed Florida in June and now he's at 7%. His victory Saturday was hardly indicative of growing support in the state.

-Florida might be the best symbol yet of Michele Bachmann's fallen star. In June she was in 2nd place at 22%. Now she's dropped 16 points and is in 6th place at 6%. You almost wonder if she's even going to make it to Iowa with those kinds of numbers.

-If the Republican race was down to two people by the time Florida votes, Romney would lead Perry 45-36 in a head to head.
Hoy también han salido los resultados de una encuesta de American Research Group sobre el Cacucus de Iowa que coloca a Romney en cabeza, seguido de Bachmann, y Perry en tercer lugar.

Los que seguís esto de las encuestas sabéis que ARG acostumbra a desmentir a las demás firmas. No hizo ninguna encuesta anterior en Iowa desde la entrada de Rick Perry, por lo que no nos permite comparar resultados. Habrá que esperar a que otras firmas publiquen su primer sondeo de Iowa posterior al último debate para ver si realmente hay un vuelco a favor de Romney.

Fotos de campaña: primera tentativa

R. Reagan Speaks Crowd Seen Thru Mirror
(Foto: Corbis)

4 de agosto de 1968, en Miami: con el público que lo escucha reflejado en el espejo, el Gobernador Ronald Reagan habla en una reunión conjunta de las delegaciones de Utah, Wyoming y Montana, un día antes del inicio de la Convención Republicana. Sentados junto a él están el Gobernador Stanley Hathaway, de Wyoming, y el Gobernador Tim Babcock, de Montana, dos de los primeros reaganitas.

La foto refleja el primer esfuerzo activo de Reagan por conquistar la nominación republicana.

Reagan se movió con mucho cuidado en los primeros meses de 1968 porque, a pesar de tener un gran seguimiento nacional, todavía era un Gobernador novato. Dejó que oficiales locales conservadores, orientados por F. Clifton White, responsable de la nominación de Goldwater en el 64, inscribieran su nombre en las papeletas de media docena de estados, pero no hizo campaña activa. Obtuvo el 11% en la primaria de Wisconsin, el 22% en Nebraska, el 23% en Oregon, y un victoria unánime en la primaria de California donde Nixon renunció a competir por miedo a un revés. Se hizo además con el apoyo entusiasta de algunos colegas gobernadores del Oeste Montañoso.

Sin hacer campaña, y gracias a su amplio margen en California, Reagan ganó las primarias de 1968 en voto popular con 1,696,632 votos, frente a 1,679,443 votos de Nixon y sólo 164,340 de Rockefeller. Pero Nixon concertó el apoyo de cinco veces más delegados porque trabajó activamente, acudiendo a las convenciones estatales y enviando emisarios a los comités locales.

Reagan no empezó a organizarse en serio hasta esos días previos a la convención. Ya era demasiado tarde porque Nixon llegaba con los delegados necesarios para ganar en una primera votación.

Para Reagan el único modo de imponerse pasaba por convencer a las delegaciones sureñas, infestadas de antiguos partidarios de Goldwater que apoyaban con mucha desconfianza a Nixon. Pero sería imposible porque Nixon tenía al Senador Strom Thurmond ejerciendo un mando casi militar sobre el ejército de delegados sureños. Thurmond apreciaba más a Reagan que a Nixon, pero creía que todo lo que pusiera en riesgo la nominación de Nixon sólo favorecía a Rockefeller, que tenía más delegados apalabrados que Reagan.

"Un voto por Reagan es un voto por Rockefeller. Si queremos ganar, los conservadores no tenemos otra opción que votar por Nixon. Debemos dejar de utilizar nuestros corazones y empezar a utilizar nuestras cabezas. Estoy poniendo en juego mi prestigio. Creedme. Me encanta Reagan, pero Nixon es el único."

300 de los 348 delegados del Sur fueron pragmáticos y no abandonaron a Nixon.

La ambigüedad de Christie congela la campaña

First Read:
*** All signs still point to “no,” but he has a few weeks to change his mind: A Republican close to Christie told First Read that you could interpret those last words as him reconsidering. Yet time is running short; the folks around Christie are very aware that he only has a few weeks to change his mind and make a White House run -- with filing dates coming next month.

Look, all signs still point to a “no” for Christie (successful presidential runs usually take months, if not years, of preparation). But you get the sense that Christie feels it would be insulting to the Republicans asking him to run to not take a little more time to make up his mind. He technically has a few more weeks because he has to either get on the plane or leave it running on the tarmac. But Christie playing Hamlet also cuts against the brand he’s tried to cultivate as governor: If he’s a straight-talking politician, where was the straight talk on a White House bid last night?

*** Freezing the field: The news that Christie is reconsidering and has a few weeks to decide on a White House run couldn’t have come at a worse time for current GOP front-runners Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. It freezes the field, and might make it a little more difficult to raise money in these final days of the 3rd fundraising quarter. (If you’re a GOP donor who finds Christie appealing, and you think there’s the chance he might get in, you’re not cutting a check to either Perry or Romney.)

Team Romney rebaja expectativas sobre la recaudación

"En el primer periodo del Gobernador (Romney) en la campaña (hasta el 31 de julio), recaudó 18 millones de dólares. No vamos a alcanzar esa cifra este trimestre. Esperamos ser superados por Rick Perry en recaudación."

Son palabras de Eric Fehrnstrom, asesor de Romney, citadas por

Romney en Morning Joe (MSNBC)

Todo lo que dice y hace el Gobernador Romney parece orientado a apuntalar su halo presidencial. Hoy ha dejado otra ración de detalles dirigidos al electorado general en Morning Joe.

Ha dicho que Obama ha fallado en la prueba de liderazgo por no saber estirar el brazo a la oposición, y ha asegurado que, si es elegido Presidente, él piensa mantener una línea de comunicación abierta con los demócratas con reuniones regulares.

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Florida amenaza con trastocar el calendario de primarias

Florida is expected to move its presidential primary to the last day in January 2012, a move likely to throw the carefully arranged Republican nominating calendar into disarray and jumpstart the nominating process a month earlier than party leaders had hoped.

Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon told CNN on Tuesday that a state commission exploring potential primary dates is likely to choose January 31 to hold the nominating contest.

If that happens, it would almost certainly force the traditional early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada to leapfrog Florida and move their primaries and caucuses into early- to mid-January.

"We are expecting to meet on Friday from 11 to 12, and I expect that they will pick January 31 as Florida's primary date," said Cannon, who helped select members of the nine-member commission.

States are required to submit the dates of their primary and caucuses to the Republican National Committee no later than Saturday, but most states are expected to choose their dates by the close of business Friday.

Florida's move would directly violate RNC rules that forbid any state other than the first four "carve-out" states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina -- from holding a primary before March 6.

States that ignore the RNC rules are subject to losing half of their delegates -- party representatives who ultimately choose the nominee -- to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida, next August.

Huntsman en Morning Joe (MSNBC)

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Obama defiende su plan económico en Denver, Colorado

Exhorta al Congreso a aprobar la legislación.

Christie en la Reagan Library (discurso completo)

Continúa: Parte 2

Palin en On The Record (Fox News)

La Gobernadora Palin reapareció con una enorme bandera en el pecho pero no aclaró nada sobre lo suyo.

Ambiguo Christie

Dejó ver que su corazón o su cabeza no están por la labor de presentarse, pero no fue tan rotundo como nos tenía acostumbrados. Hubiera sido fácil decir "no me presento." Pero no lo hizo. Hace meses lo repetía sin cautela. Ayer, en cambio, no quiso pronunciar esas tres simples palabras.

PREGUNTA: "Le he escuchado esta noche, es usted un orador poderoso y elocuente. Sabe cómo decirle al pueblo americano lo que necesitan oir, y digo esto desde el fondo de mi corazón, por mi hija que está aquí y mis nietos que están en casa: sé que New Jersey le necesita, pero de verdad le imploro. No estoy bromeando, quiero decir esto con todo mi corazón. No podemos esperar otros cuatro años hasta 2016, y de verdad le imploro, como ciudadana de este país, por favor señor, reconsidérelo. Le necesitamos. Su país necesita que se presente a la Presidencia."

(Aplauso del público)

GOBERNADOR CHRISTIE: "Déjeme decirle esto, porque ha habido mucha gente que me ha pedido eso durante las últimas semanas y meses, y esto es todo lo que diré sobre ello esta noche -- Escucho excáctamente lo que dice, y siento la pasión con la que lo dice, y me emociona... Sólo soy un chico de New Jersey que se siente el más afortunado en el mundo por tener la oportunidad de ser el Gobernador de mi estado... No es una carga (que le imploren)... La verdad es que alguien que tuviera un ego suficientemente grande como para decir, 'oh por favor, por favor, dejen de pedirme que sea el líder del mundo libre. Es una carga. Si pudiera parar.' Quiero decir, ¿qué clase de loco egomaníaco tendrías que ser para decir 'paren, paren'?... Es extraordinariamente halagador, pero de igual modo, ese sentido mensaje que me ha transmitido tampoco es una razón para hacerlo. Esa razón debe residir dentro de mí... Le agradezco lo que dice y lo tomo, escucho y siento cada palabra."

martes, 27 de septiembre de 2011

La ruta de Bachmann

Keith Nahigian, campaign manager de Michele Bachmann, traza en este video las líneas generales de su estrategia para ganar la nominación republicana: victoria obligada en Iowa, competir pero no dominar en New Hampshire (esto significa hacer un esfuerzo mínimo), y concentrarse en ganar Carolina del Sur con la ayuda de los tea partiers, los conservadores sociales, y los votantes que priorizan la Seguridad Nacional.

Lo más interesante es que implícitamente admite que en Iowa sólo le vale ganar. Ni segundos ni terceros puestos. Si no gana está fuera.

Hasta la entrada de Perry esta ruta parecía más que factible para Bachmann. Pero con Perry dentro, y puede que con Cain progresando, la cosa se le complica.

Romney se apoya en Wall Street; Perry en la red de Barbour

A tres días de la fecha límite del tercer cuarto del año, Romney y Perry están hoy en la Costa Este vaciando los bolsillos de los generosos donantes. Romney está en Nueva York, seduciendo a antiguos donantes de Obama en la industria financiera, y Perry en Washington DC, pidiendo dinero a lobbyistas y abogados.

Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has raised more than twice as much money from Wall Street as Barack Obama -- an edge gained in part by luring away at least 100 donors, mostly investors, who backed the president in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The former Obama donors are helping the former Massachusetts governor lock up Wall Street dollars as Romney races to financially outpace primary rival Texas Governor Rick Perry in advance of the Sept. 30 third quarter deadline for campaign fundraising.

“It’s going to be very hard for the president to bash the rich and create jobs at the same time,” said Anthony Scaramucci, 47, founder and managing partner of New York-based SkyBridge Capital LLC that manages $8 billion, who has switched support from Obama in 2008 to Romney. “I don’t think the country is about class warfare.”

While Romney works the financial services industry, Perry is picking up support from prominent Republicans who had planned to back Republican Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, had he run.

Perry and Romney are holding competing fundraisers today, as they try to bank closing cash for reports that historically have established the candidate pecking order in the run-up to the early primaries or driven some hopefuls from the race.

In 1999, five candidates -- including former Senator Elizabeth Dole, a North Carolina Republican -- abandoned their bids after failing to keep financial pace with former then- Governor George W. Bush of Texas. Bush reported raising $57.7 million through Sept. 30 compared with Dole’s $4.8 million.

Perry’s event in Washington, with members of the host committee each agreeing to raise $10,000, will be held at the Willard InterContinental Hotel, which is situated two blocks from the White House. Supporters who donate $1,000 can attend a general reception. Among the Willard event organizers is Kirk Blalock, a senior aide to Barbour in 1994 when he was chairman of the Republican National Committee, and Dirk Van Dongen, president of the Washington-based National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors.

Blalock and Van Dongen each raised at least $100,000 for Bush in 2004 and at least $500,000 for Republican presidential nominee John McCain in 2008.

Later, Perry will attend a reception at the home of Mary Ourisman, a Bush supporter and former U.S. ambassador to Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean.

Romney has scheduled a $2,500-a-head breakfast at the Essex House overlooking Central Park in New York City. It’s being organized by a host committee that includes top executives of Goldman Sachs Group, KKR & Co. LP and Blackstone Group LP. (BX) For $500, Romney supporters can attend a general reception after the breakfast.

Among the organizers of Romney’s event today is Scaramucci, who gave $4,600 to Obama in 2008.

“You need a turnaround specialist in Washington right now,” Scaramucci said in an interview. “You have to cut and cap the growth of the government, but at the same time you need to figure out a way to put the private and public sectors in balance to stimulate the economy. Governor Romney has done that.”

Scaramucci is one of at least 100 former Obama contributors who have given to Romney’s 2012 campaign, according to a Bloomberg analysis of data provided by the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington-based research group that tracks political giving. They have helped Romney, founder of the Boston-based private equity firm Bain Capital LLC, raise $2.3 million from the securities industry sector, compared with $857,000 for Obama.

"¡Eres el Anticristo!"

El Presidente Barack Obama hablaba esta mañana en una recaudación de fondos en West Hollywood, Los Angeles, cuando un hombre del público se ha puesto a gritar repetidas veces "Jesucristo es Dios". Mientras era reducido por los agentes del Servicio Secreto, le ha gritado a Obama, "Eres el Anticristo".

Lo más curioso es que se supone que para estar ahí ha contribuido a la campaña de Obama con al menos 250 dólares.

Fox News: Christie no se presenta

Fox News Insider:
Fox News has just confirmed that New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has officially announced that he will not seek the presidential nomination ahead of the 2012 election.

Stay tuned.

Palin, a sólo días de tomar una decisión

New York Times:
Ms. Palin, a one-time Alaska governor, is reportedly just days away from deciding whether to run for president.

In the meantime, her Twitter feed and Facebook page have gone silent for the last 10 days. Her Web site has not been updated recently. And Ms. Palin has not appeared on Fox News for a week, since before the last Republican presidential debate.

In a letter to donors late last week, Tim Crawford, the chief of her political action committee, wrote that Ms. Palin was “on the verge of making her decision of whether or not to run for office.”

Mr. Crawford noted that “someone must save our nation from this road to European socialism,” and asked for money as a way of demonstrating support if she throws her hat in the ring. He gave no clue to her decision, though he added that time is “running out.”

In fact, the political clock is ticking away. Ms. Palin now faces serious deadlines in October that, if missed, could keep her name off the presidential primary ballot. The first of those comes on Oct. 15. By that date, Ms. Palin’s election team must deliver a letter of candidacy to the secretary of state in Utah if she wants her name to appear on that state’s ballot.

Utah is by no means a critical primary state, especially in a race that features two Mormon candidates, not to mention the former governor of the state. Ms. Palin could decide that she does not need her name to appear.

But Florida comes next. By Oct. 31, that state’s Republican Party must deliver to state officials the list of candidates who are running for president there. It is a ballot she has to be on if she wants the Republican nomination.

(...) If Ms. Palin tells them she is running, aides will move quickly to incorporate a campaign committee, probably in Delaware. They will have to find a headquarters building. (An aide promised it would not be inside the Washington Beltway.) Calls will be placed to 15 or 20 wealthy supporters to begin preparing for a fund-raising blitz.

And she will have to quickly change her status at Fox, which has already forced out two other contributors (Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum) for pursuing the presidency. A spokeswoman for Fox News said Ms. Palin would be treated similarly if she makes definitive steps toward setting up a campaign.

Any of those moves would leak out quickly, and the people around Ms. Palin know it. When Ms. Palin formed her political action committee, it quickly became public knowledge.

Hermano de Christie: "no se va a presentar"

Newark Star Ledger:
Christie's brother, a well-connected Republican fundraiser, said the governor hasn't changed his mind.

"I'm sure that he's not going to run," Todd Christie said. "If he's lying to me, I'll be as stunned as I've ever been in my life."

Fotos de campaña: el candidato inactivo

Averell Harriman Walking With Harry Truman
(Foto: Corbis)

El Gobernador Averell Harriman y el ex Presidente Harry Truman recorren la Quinta Avenida de Nueva York rodeados de reporteros, a comienzos de 1956. Se dirigen a desayunar al apartamento de Harriman en la calle 81.

Truman, en aquella época la figura más influyente del Partido Demócrata en su condición de único ex Presidente vivo, "Mister Democrat" para la prensa, había volado hasta NY para convencer a Harriman de que se presentara a la Presidencia. Nadie en el partido confiaba en que ninguno de los dos únicos candidatos anunciados, Adlai Stevenson y Estes Kefauver, pudiera ser competitivo frente a Eisenhower en noviembre.

Averell Harriman Holding His Hat
(Foto: Corbis)

"Quiero decirles que este sombrero está en el ruedo," anunció el Gobernador Harriman mientras levantaba su sombrero fedora ante 200 personas reunidas en el Hotel Statler de Manhattan, el 9 de junio de 1956. La expresión "throw hat in the ring" significa lanzarse al ruedo, en este caso al ruedo presidencial.

Hasta entonces, Harriman se había definido a sí mismo como un "candidato inactivo", un concepto inventado para dejar claro que, aunque renunciaba a competir en las primarias, estaba abierto a ser nominado en la convención. Su estrategia se apoyaba en la esperanza de ser elegido en una convención dividida, presionando con el endorsement de Truman y el enorme poder de la delegación de Nueva York.

Christie puede parar los rumores esta noche, si quiere

First Read:
*** The Christie buzz increases: Even though you have to take Chris Christie at his word that he isn’t running for president, the presidential buzz surrounding him is only increasing. Tonight, the New Jersey governor delivers a speech at the Reagan Library at 9:00 pm ET. The title of the speech is buzzworthy, too: “Real American Exceptionalism.” Per Christie’s office, the governor’s remarks will use Reagan's “transformative leadership to depict how the United States’ role and significance in the world is defined by who we are at home.”

(...) Either Christie is having fun with all of this speculation, or something is afoot. The former is the more likely situation, but Christie probably needs to give one more unequivocal “no” to stop the speculation -- especially after Kean’s comments. He can EASILY stop this tonight, if he wants to; he’ll have a large forum to do it.

"They Agree"

Romney responde a Perry con la inmigración.

Este web ad acusa al Gobernador de Texas de compartir posición con demócratas como el propio Barack Obama o el Gobernador Martin O'Malley, de Maryland, sobre las becas para hijos de ilegales.

Perry: ¿más de 20 millones en su primer cuarto?

The Dallas Morning News:
Sometimes money talks better than the candidate, and a good bottom line would demonstrate Perry's political prowess. Word inside the Perry camp is that online fundraising is beating expectations and that he raised $20 million in only three days in his initial funders in Texas and Oklahoma.

¿Ahora o nunca?

Ari Fleischer, ex Secretario de Prensa de la Casa Blanca, nos cuenta en twitter uno de los argumentos de LOS RECLUTADORES para convencer a Christie:
The money people are telling Christie he can’t win re-election in New Jersey, so he needs to run for President of the United States. It’s now or never, they’re telling him.
Es un riesgo real en un estado, New Jersey, en el que los demócratas registrados superan en medio millón a los republicanos registrados. Además, los demócratas convertirán a Christie en objetivo prioritario para intentar cortarle el camino antes de llegar a las presidenciales de 2016.

Perry trata de tranquilizar a sus seguidores de Iowa y SC

As he faces growing scrutiny about his conservative credentials, Texas Gov. Rick Perry called grassroots activists in the key early states of Iowa and South Carolina on Monday evening to address his record and take questions.

The Perry campaign conducted two "tele-town halls," dialing into the homes of targeted GOP voters across both states and asking them to hold for the governor, according to a South Carolina Republican source who received one of the calls.

Perry was introduced on the South Carolina call by former South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson, Perry's campaign chairman in the state.

The candidate immediately set about defending his record on three issues that have come to define his campaign in recent weeks: immigration, Social Security, and his 2007 executive order mandating that school girls be vaccinated against the sexually transmitted human papillomavirus (HPV), which can cause cervical cancer.

"He said, 'You all have heard a lot of things out there, so let me set the record straight,'" said the source who was on the South Carolina call. "I was struck by the fact that he started out on defense instead of offense."

(...) Dawson, Perry's South Carolina chairman, confirmed that the town hall took place Monday and called it "a general rally-the-troops call."

Perry spokesman Mark Miner said Perry also conducted a tele-town hall in Iowa, which will hold the leadoff contest of the GOP nomination next year, to deliver a similar message.