sábado, 31 de diciembre de 2011

DMR: ligera ventaja de Romney; Santorum subiendo

Des Moines Register:
Mitt Romney tops the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in the closing days before the Iowa caucuses, but Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are poised within striking distance.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.

“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.

Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.

Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 602 likely Republican caucusgoers, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In the final two days of polling, 302 likely caucusgoers were interviewed, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

Rounding out the field, in results from the full, four-day poll: former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 12 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 11 percent, and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, 7 percent.
Mañana publicarán un análisis más completo de los resultados en DesMoinesRegister.com/caucus.

Muchos indecisos en Iowa

First Read:
*** Observations from the ground: After talking to Iowa Republicans at Romney and Rick Perry events in the Hawkeye State, you realize that there are still A LOT of undecided voters. They like many of the candidates, and wish they could take the good aspects of each and make into the perfect nominee -- Romney’s business experience, Perry’s straight-talking persona, Santorum’s strong conservatism, Bachmann’s fighting spirit, and Gingrich’s intellect and grasp of history.

Most of those who spoke with First Read have it down to two or three. Those thinking about voting for Romney are concerned about a Paul win or the chances of beating Obama in November, but there isn’t a lot of enthusiasm for him (even though he’s getting big crowds). For those thinking about Perry or Santorum, they like their values. And for the people who were once leaning toward Gingrich, they are now pushing away. At both the Perry and Romney events, Iowans said he has too much “baggage” and has “spent too much time in Washington.” (Sounds like those attack ads resonated, no?)

La buena fama de la encuesta del DMR

A las 8 de esta noche (hora de la Costa Este) sale la última encuesta del Des Moines Register sobre el Caucus de Iowa. Y aunque a su responsable, Ann Selzer, le gusta repetir que, en los tres días que faltan hasta el Caucus, las cosas pueden cambiar, y los indecisos están ahí, el sondeo del Register casi siempre ha acertado el orden de los candidatos, como podemos ver en estos gráficos de las últimas tres elecciones, vía correctnicity.com:

Para que nos hagamos una idea de su importancia, el campaign manager de Obama, David Plouffe, recordaba de este modo en el libro The Audacity of Hope (vía Taegan Goddard) el día que salió la encuesta definitiva del DMR hace cuatro años:

"Back at the office, our press staff kept refreshing the Register website. The Register poll never, ever leaks -- which is very rare with polls -- nor does the paper's staff send it out to the campaigns a few minutes before they post it on their site. Everyone gets the results at the same time. I was told later that throughout the evening hundreds of thousands of people across the country were frantically hitting refresh on their browsers to update the Des Moines Register website."

Eventos de campaña en directo

C-SPAN emitirá hoy tres eventos en directo:

A las 11:30 am: Perry estará en una cafetería de Fort Dodge, Iowa.

A la 1:15 pm: Ann Romney hará campaña por su marido en Ottumwa, Iowa.

A las 6 pm: Santorum celebrará un rally de Nochevieja en Ottumwa, Iowa.

El resto de eventos, y también esos, se pueden seguir en CNN Live. No han publicado la programación para hoy pero estoy seguro de que lo darán casi todo. De hecho, ahora están emitiendo un acto de Gingrich.

Lucha de poder en Team Perry

Their explanations for the nosedive come against the backdrop of a campaign riven by an intense, behind-the-scenes power struggle that took place largely between a group of the governor’s longtime advisers and a new cadre of consultants brought on this fall. In the end, the outsiders won out — and ever since have marginalized Perry’s longtime chief strategist while crafting a new strategy in which the Texan has portrayed himself as a political outsider and culture warrior.

In a series of interviews with POLITICO, sources close to the campaign depict a dysfunctional operation that might be beyond saving because of what they describe as the political equivalent of malpractice by the previous regime.

“There has never been a more ineptly orchestrated, just unbelievably subpar campaign for President of the United States than this one,” said a senior Perry adviser.

Perry’s steep plunge from frontrunner to butt of jokes was chiefly the result of his own embarrassing verbal stumbles, most notably his insta-classic “oops” moment when he couldn’t recall the names of the cabinet departments he wants to eliminate.

Yet the view of the outsiders who took over Perry’s campaign is that the candidate was set up for failure by an insular group led by Dave Carney, the governor’s longtime political guru, which thought they could run a presidential campaign like a larger version of a gubernatorial race and didn’t take the basic steps needed to professionalize the operation until the candidate was already sinking.

“They put the campaign together like all the other Perry campaigns: raise a bunch of money, don’t worry about the [media coverage], don’t worry about debates and buy the race on TV,” said a top Perry official. “You have to be a total rube to think a race for president is the same as a race for governor.”

Because Perry had never been defeated in his career in state politics — and came from behind to crush Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in last year’s Texas gubernatorial primary — his Texas operation projected an air of supreme self-assurance and indifference to outside advice.

Carney, a longtime GOP strategist who worked for Bush 41’s presidential campaigns, declined to comment for this story.

“I don’t think so,” he said in response to an email asking to get his side. “Not much good can come from process stories like this.”

In a blistering indictment, sources close to the operation describe a new team that was stunned to arrive in October and find a campaign that wasn’t executing the most rudimentary elements of a modern presidential campaign: no polling or focus groups, no opposition research book on their own candidate to prepare for attacks and debate prep sessions that were barely worth the name.

Continuar leyendo (...)

Guerra de carteles en Iowa

Estos días Iowa se está llenando de carteles de candidatos sin ningún tipo de regulación. Destacan los de Mitt Romney y Ron Paul que han repartido decenas de miles por todo el estado. Parques, jardines, cunetas, campos de trigo, depósitos de cereales, portabebés, cualquier lugar vale para colocarlos.

Perry atrae multitudes que no se traducen en votos

CBS News:
Rick Perry's events have taken a turn for the crowded. He'll arrive, typically, to find that a coffee shop built to accommodate 75 people is crammed with up to twice that many, spilling out the door and jammed into every available corner.

The crowds are excited, too. They'll murmur "mmm-hmms" and exclaim "yeahs!" as he winds through his stump speech, breaking into loud applause when he calls for a balanced budget amendment, a part-time Congress and the end of Obamacare. Despite the excitement and enthusiasm, though, the Texas governor remains very firmly stuck in the middle of a race for third place in the Iowa caucuses with Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.

The problem? The enthusiastic crowds he draws are made up heavily of the fabled undecided voters in this cycle. Voter after voter at his events will tell you they like Perry. But they also like Santorum, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, and Rep. Michele Bachmann. And while Perry's numbers have crept into the mid-teens in recent weeks, there's still disconnect between his increasingly large crowds and somewhat stagnant showing in the polls.

"The question is whether these crowds are really representative of his level of support across the state and thus there's some movement that polls haven't picked up yet, or whether instead these are simply curiosity-seekers wanting to see part of the carnival," said Drake University politics professor Dennis Goldford.

The good news for the Texas governor is that his poll numbers have improved since his November doldrums when he could barely break 10 percent. Perry isn't denying that he's drawing big crowds of undecided voters. But he's convinced he's breaking through.

"What I'm feeling, what I'm seeing what I know is happening is they're leaving and I know they're going to be caucusing for us on the third of January," he told CBS News/ National Journal.

Memo de Gingrich: quedar 3º o 4º en IA y ganar SC y FL

Fox News:
Newt Gingrich predicted he would finish maybe third or fourth in Iowa, but he didn't expect the possibility of fifth place.

A new NBC/Marist poll in Iowa shows Gingrich at 13 percent behind Mitt Romney at 23 percent, Ron Paul at 21 percent, Rick Santorum at 15 percent, and Rick Perry at 14percent. Only Michele Bachmann, also a former frontrunner, is behind him at 6 percent

Still, even before the NBC poll was released, senior strategist Kevin Kellems circulated an internal memo reassuring the staff that they are "about where we always thought we'd be at this point in the race. In fact, we are in a stronger position than necessary at this stage."

The memo, obtained by Fox News, underscores what the campaign considers Gingrich's "long-term brand strength" as the reason he will prevail to win the nomination.

"We have a strategic advantage over the rest of the field, including Romney - due to Newt's long-term brand strength as well as regional strength in South Carolina and Florida," Kellems wrote. "He's been around long enough and has been tested; people know Newt. Note, for example, that he was the only man among the GOP presidential candidates to make Gallup's annual short list of most admired Americans, which was released this week."

In the days before the Virginia ballot fallout, Newt Gingrich painted an elegant picture of his path to the nomination.

Gingrich said that after finishing in the top "three or four" in Iowa and "top two" in New Hampshire, he would go on to win South Carolina and Florida.

"From that point on I think it becomes a pretty easy race," he said.

But his ability to execute his blueprint for winning was thrown into question after his campaign failed to make Virginia's Super Tuesday primary ballot, and amid polls indicating the former House Speaker's plummet in Iowa -- early signs of a campaign with its wheels falling off -- his campaign spokesperson boarded the press bus Wednesday giving reporters a ballpark figure of Gingrich's 4Q fundraising numbers -- a figure Fox News' Carl Cameron had reported two weeks before.

It was an effort to change the story line of a campaign in free fall.

Mark Halperin entrevista a Rick Santorum

El Senador Santorum explica dónde está y cómo ha llegado hasta donde está. "Lo dije hace un mes. Teníamos que tener fe en la gente de Iowa, que cuando llegase la hora de la verdad... tendríamos nuestra oportunidad."

Dice que tiene una "super organización" en el estado y que espera quedar entre los tres primeros.

Newsmax compra 30 minutos para Gingrich en la tv de Iowa

The New York Times:
His cash-short campaign unable to buy much advertising of its own, Newt Gingrich’s well-financed allies are coming to his rescue in Iowa, securing large chunks of airtime across the state.

Newsmax, the conservative magazine and Web site, will show a 30-minute special on Mr. Gingrich throughout the weekend in all of Iowa’s major television markets. The program is hosted by Michael Reagan, son of the former president, and makes the case that Mr. Gingrich is the strongest candidate to carry forward Ronald Reagan’s legacy.

“Millions of dollars in negative ads have been spent against him,” Mr. Reagan says. “But let’s discuss the real Newt Gingrich.” Soft music then starts to play and the camera cuts to a black and white photograph of Mr. Gingrich as a boy.

A second major player in conservative circles, Liberty University, the evangelical institution founded by Jerry Falwell, is also giving Mr. Gingrich some help in Iowa, running 30-second commercials in which Mr. Gingrich extols the virtues of a Liberty education.

(...) Christopher Ruddy, Newsmax Media’s chief executive, said he was inclined to feature Mr. Gingrich in the program because the former speaker was one of only two candidates who agreed to participate in the debate Newsmax planned to host with Donald J. Trump. Mr. Trump pulled out of the debate, and Newsmax canceled it after most of the candidates balked.

“We’re very supportive of Newt,” Mr. Ruddy said Friday. “Newt never asked it, nor did we ever have to do it. But we do feel that Newt really is the conservative standard-bearer right now.”

Mr. Ruddy said the special would run 200 times over the weekend in all of the state’s major media markets, including on stations in Omaha and South Dakota that reach into parts of Iowa.

Newsmax and Mr. Ruddy have soured on Mitt Romney after endorsing him in 2008, when it called him “the Reagan candidate” on its cover.

Mr. Ruddy’s feelings now? He said Mr. Romney has been too dismissive of Newsmax, whereas Mr. Gingrich has not. “So we have a comfort level with Newt. Woody Allen says 85 percent of success in life is just showing up. Well, Newt shows up.”

Santorum en Marshalltown, Iowa

(hacer click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

Ron Paul en Perry, Iowa

Ron Paul en Political Capital (Bloomberg)

Dice que espera quedar entre los dos primeros en Iowa.

viernes, 30 de diciembre de 2011

Gingrich en Happening Now (Fox News)

Explica su caída en las encuestas de Iowa como el resultado de 8 millones de dólares invertidos en publicidad negativa en un pequeño estado. Señala que hasta un 45% de todos los anuncios emitidos en Iowa han sido ataques contra él. Pero promete mantenerse en positivo y dice que en los últimos días su campaña ha contactado con 40,000 potenciales votantes en el estado.

Santorum en Happening Now (Fox News)

Habla de política exterior y economía desde Des Moines.

Perry en America Live (Fox News)

No se quiere mojar cuando Megyn Kelly le preguntan en qué posición tendría que quedar en Iowa para poder decir que lo ha hecho bien.

Romney y Christie en West Des Moines, Iowa

Buena asistencia de público en un acto al aire libre y sin cubiertas en un día de frío, lluvia y viento en la Iowa central. Es una señal tranquilizadora para Romney, del que se dice que puede ser uno de los más perjudicados si hace mal tiempo en la noche del Caucus, por eso de que sus votantes son más pragmáticos que devotos.

El candidato ha estado acompañado por un Chris Christie que no para de hacer méritos para ser running-mate si Romney es el nominado.


Our Destiny PAC, el Super PAC de Jon Huntsman, hace un llamamiento a los votantes de New Hampshire para que paren al "camaleón" (más conocido como Romney).

El anuncio plantea un escenario, de momento no demasiado realista, en el que Romney y Huntsman son los únicos candidatos que siguen en pie.

NARRADOR: "Subieron, cayeron (imágenes de Pawlenty, Bachmann, Perry, Cain y Gingrich). Dos candidatos serios permanecen (imágenes de Romney y Huntsman). Uno dispuesto a decir cualquier cosa, a ser cualquier cosa. Uno que realmente puede hacer el trabajo. Jon Huntsman tiene el mejor plan económico, historial de empleos, y experiencia en política exterior. Hará fuerte a América. Un estado puede parar al camaleón. Vota Jon Huntsman."

La encuesta del DMR saldrá en plena Nochevieja

Political Wire:
The much-anticipated Des Moines Register Iowa Poll will be out Saturday night.

Gingrich llora al recordar a su madre

*¿Os acordáis de esto?

"American Optimism"

Con este anuncio que se emitirá en los mercados televisivos de New Hampshire y Boston, Romney contrapone un mensaje romántico y optimista al discurso descreído de la Casa Blanca de Obama.

Hay mucho del libreto de campaña de Reagan aquí. Un mensaje liviano y optimista, que simplifica la realidad y le hace a uno sentirse mejor, en un tiempo de malestar en que se le exigen sacrificios a la clase media y el ocupante de la Casa Blanca (Carter) se defiende diciendo que podría ser peor.

GOBERNADOR ROMNEY: "Esta elección es más que sustituir a un Presidente. Es una elección para salvar el alma de América. Todavía creemos en una América que saca lo mejor de todos nosotros; que nos desafía a cada uno de nosotros a ser mejores y más grandes que nosotros mismos. Es hora de que este pesimista Presidente se aparte y deje que el optimismo que construyó esta la más grande nación de la tierra, construya un futuro mejor para nuestros hijos. Si creéis que las decepciones de estos últimos años son un desvío, no un destino, entonces os pido vuestro voto."

Santorum en The Ed Show (MSNBC)

Ed Schultz (MSNBC), una especie de intento de némesis de Rush Limbaugh en la izquierda, le ha realizado una entrevista asombrosamente justa y objetiva a Rick Santorum.

Incluso ha destacado alguna de las cualidades positivas del candidato en la presentación: "En campaña, Rick Santorum es digno de admiración. Es muy versado, capacitado, y muy fuerte en sus convicciones... hay pocos en campaña que lo hagan mejor en el contacto personal."

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

We Ask America: Romney 24%, Santorum 17%, Paul 14% en Iowa

We Ask America:

*Este sondeo es sólo de republicanos (889 republicanos que tienen pensado participar en el Caucus), por lo que los números de Ron Paul pueden estar por debajo de la realidad.

Una escena retrospectiva

(hacer click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

Nos vamos a 1996. Es noche de Caucus republicano en un distrito variable de Cedar Rapids, Iowa. La gente se ha reunido en la sala de una iglesia metodista cuyas paredes están decoradas con carteles de candidatos, destacando los de Buchanan, y entre el público llaman la atención las camisas rojas de cuadros que distinguen a los seguidores más devotos del Gobernador Lamar Alexander.

El resultado en este recinto será: Lamar Alexander 83 votos, Bob Dole 81 votos, Alan Keyes 60 votos, Pat Buchanan 50 votos, Steve Forbes 50 votos, Phil Gramm 14 votos, Richard Lugar 11 votos, y Morry Taylor 3 votos.

Por qué Romney puede ganar el martes, y por qué puede perder

First Read:
*** Splintered Tea Party support (and why Romney could win this thing): A second storyline is that the divided conservative vote in Iowa creates a path to victory for Romney. In last month’s NBC-Marist poll of Iowa, Gingrich had a large lead over Romney (and the other GOP rivals) among Tea Party supporters. But in this new poll, Tea Party supporters -- who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers -- are splintered. Santorum gets 20% from them, Romney and Paul get 17%, Gingrich 16%, Perry 15%, and Bachmann 10%. So six candidates are WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR among Tea Party supporters. Simply stunning. “This is the Romney dream scenario,” Miringoff says. “When you look at the Tea Party and conservatives, they are all splintered.” And it explains how Romney getting 25% of the vote on Tuesday -- the exact percentage he received when he finished in second in Iowa four years ago -- could put him in first this time around.

*** A lack of enthusiasm for Romney (and why he could still lose): So while Romney might benefit from a splintered conservative vote, his support isn’t the strongest. That honor goes to Santorum with 59% strongly supporting him. Next is Paul at 54%, then Perry at 52%, and Romney comes in fourth at 51%. Iowa voter Carolyn Erickson told NBC News yesterday that she is leaning toward Romney because her preferred candidate -- Bachmann -- is unlikely to win. "Even though I love Michelle Bachmann and would like to see her maybe be vice president or whatever, I just don't think that she has a chance.” So the danger for Romney is that people who are leaning to him (because of electability, etc.) don’t show up on Jan. 3.

¡Ron Paul pasará el fin de semana en casa!

After a stumping all day Friday in Iowa, Rep. Ron Paul heads home to Texas to spend New Year's weekend with his wife. The Paul campaign tells CNN the congressman, who's making this third bid for the White House, resumes campaigning in Iowa Monday morning.

Meanwhile, after an event in Iowa Friday morning, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney makes stops in New Hampshire Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, before returning to the Hawkeye State Saturday afternoon. He campaigns in Iowa all day Sunday. Romney is making his second bid for the Republican nomination.

Eventos de campaña en directo

En CNN Live (en las ventanitas de la derecha se selecciona lo que se quiere ver).

07:30 AM Race to 2012: Huntsman in New Hampshire
GOP presidential candidate Jon Huntsman addresses a Rotary meeting in Bow, New Hampshire.

08:00 AM Race to 2012: Gingrich’s Iowa bus tour
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich meets with potential caucus voters at a golf and social club in Des Moines.

09:05 AM Race to 2012: Romney and Christie team up
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie joins GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney at a campaign rally in West Des Moines, Iowa.

01:00 PM Race to 2012: Perry campaigns at pizza parlor
GOP presidential candidate Gov. Rick Perry holds a meet and greet with voters at a pizzeria in Waterloo, Iowa.

02:00 PM Race to 2012: Christie campaigns for Romney
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie joins Ann Romney at a campaign event in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

03:45 PM Race to 2012: Perry’s Iowa meet and greet
GOP presidential candidate Gov. Rick Perry holds a meet and greet with potential caucus voters at a restaurant in Waverly, Iowa.

04:00 PM Race to 2012: Paul holds town hall
GOP presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul hosts a town hall-style meeting in Sioux Center, Iowa.

04:00 PM Race to 2012: Santorum’s football party
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum hosts a college football bowl game watch party in Ames, Iowa.

05:55 PM Race to 2012: Romney’s spaghetti dinner
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney hosts a spaghetti dinner in Merrimack, New Hampshire.

06:00 PM Race to 2012: Gingrich goes to the soda shop
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich meets with potential voters at a coffee and soda shop in Creston, Iowa.

09:00 PM Race to 2012: Gingrich continues bus tour
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich talks with potential caucus voters at a restaurant in Shenandoah, Iowa.

El sujeta sillas

Se llama Garrett Jackson, es miembro del staff de Mitt Romney, y ayer le tocó ser el encargado de sujetar una estrecha silla que el candidato utilizó para ganar altura durante un mitin en Mason City.

NBC/Marist: Romney y Paul, parejos en Iowa; Gingrich 5º

NBC News:
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are running neck-and-neck in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is surging and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich collapsing just four days before the state's Jan. 3 caucuses, according to a new NBC News-Marist poll.

Romney drew the support of 23 percent of likely caucus-goers in Iowa – identified based on interest, chance of voting and past participation – ahead of Paul, at 21 percent.

They are followed by Santorum at 15 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann at 6 percent.

The poll numbers, which are similar to those published in a recent CNN/Time survey, represent a reversal of fortune for Gingrich, as well as an improvement for Santorum and (to a lesser extent) Perry.

“More than half of [Gingrich’s] support has evaporated,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.

Miringoff adds that the millions of dollars in negative TV ads targeting Gingrich – from a pro-Romney Super PAC and the Paul campaign – have played a major role in this erosion, with 35 percent of likely caucus-goers now saying he’d be unacceptable as the GOP’s nominee. That’s a 19-point increase from last month.

¿Y si Santorum gana en Iowa?

Nate Silver:
First, Mr. Santorum does not just have momentum, but he has it at the right time — at a point in the campaign where conservative voters may be behaving tactically as they try to determine which candidates from among Mr. Santorum, Mrs. Bachmann, Mr. Gingrich and Rick Perry are most viable. Mrs. Bachmann in particular appears to be vulnerable because of a combination of soft polling and the defection of her Iowa campaign co-chairman, Kent Sorsenson. If Mr. Santorum were to pick up half of Mrs. Bachmann’s previous support, he would essentially be in an three-way tie for first place with Representative Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.

Second, Mr. Santorum is consistently showing good favorability numbers in polling of the state, and he also is frequently mentioned as voters’ second choice when pollsters ask about this. Second-choice preferences are not as important in the Republican caucuses because Republicans do not have a viability threshold in the Iowa caucuses, as Democrats do. Nevertheless, this increases Mr. Santorum’s potential to perform better than projected, particularly in light of potential tactical behavior on the part of voters.

Third, Mr. Santorum, who has strong support from evangelical voters, is the type of candidate who has traditionally overachieved his polls on caucus night.

Fourth, Mr. Santorum by all accounts has a strong infrastructure in Iowa. He therefore could have a strong turnout with plenty of volunteers who will vouch for his campaign on caucus night.

Our model currently gives Mr. Santorum a 7 percent chance of winning the caucuses, while the betting market Intrade gives him a 9 percent chance. I suspect that both estimates are too low.

But suppose that Mr. Santorum wins Iowa. What happens to his campaign then?

It might be instructive to compare Mr. Santorum’s position to that of another social conservative, Mike Huckabee. Mr. Huckabee was in a much stronger position outside of Iowa than Mr. Santorum is right now, polling at about 17 percent in national surveys at this point four years ago. Mr. Santorum, by contrast, is at only 4 percent support nationally in the latest Gallup poll. That Mr. Huckabee was not able to capitalize on his Iowa victory, despite seemingly being in a more advantageous position to do so, is one reason to be skeptical of whether Mr. Santorum would be able to, either.

With that said, there are two factors that Mr. Santorum has going for him that Mr. Huckabee did not. First, whereas Mr. Huckabee’s win had been expected in Iowa for some weeks in advance of the caucuses, Mr. Santorum’s would be a come-from-behind victory, something which has historically been associated with a larger post-Iowa bounce. Second, Mr. Santorum could potentially benefit from consolidation in the field if other conservative candidates like Mrs. Bachmann and Mr. Perry were to drop out of the race after a poor finish in Iowa.

Thus, it is a possibility that the Republican nomination could boil down to a two-way race between Mr. Santorum and Mitt Romney. Perhaps Mr. Paul would also be a factor in such a race.

Romney amplía su estancia en Iowa tentado por la victoria

Wall Street Journal:
Mitt Romney on Thursday signaled increasing confidence he will finish strongly in Iowa's Republican presidential contest, scheduling more time in the state ahead of Tuesday's caucuses.

Mr. Romney until recently had hedged on whether to make an all-out effort to win the caucuses, fearful of raising expectations only to make a poor showing. That outcome could sap momentum before the next contest, in New Hampshire, where Mr. Romney is heavily favored.

But his crowds and polling numbers have been strong lately. An event in North Liberty on Wednesday evening attracted roughly 600 people, much more than some earlier appearances in the state.

Mr. Romney, who has been dividing his time between Iowa and New Hampshire, recently said he would spend New Year's Eve in Iowa and scheduled a 10-stop tour of the state that begins Saturday and closes with a caucus-night party in Des Moines.
Hoy cumplirá con algunos compromisos en New Hampshire, y mañana volverá a Iowa con la intención de quedarse hasta recibir los resultados del Caucus el martes por la noche, con fiesta incluida. Es la conducta propia de un candidato que está compitiendo por ganar Iowa.

Por ejemplo, hace cuatro años, McCain, que competía por el tercer puesto en Iowa, hizo una valoración de los resultados desde New Hampshire. Abandonó Iowa varias horas antes del Caucus.

Crece el público de Romney en Iowa

El miércoles atrajo a 600 personas en la pequeña North Liberty, y ayer volvió a atraer a cientos en Ames (en la foto).

Romney en Ames, Iowa

En verano, cuando era un frágil front-runner, no quiso estar en Ames. Ayer, cuatro meses después, tuvo un recibimiento triunfal en una fábrica local. Allí repitió el discurso de tono patriótico que está utilizando estos días: recitó un verso de 'America the Beautiful', citó a los Padres Fundadores, contrastó EEUU con Europa, y habló de ideales y oportunidades. Un mensaje optimista que coincide con el reciente estado de ánimo del candidato.

Santorum empieza a sacudir a Ron Paul

A medida que surge en las encuestas de Iowa, Rick Santorum vigoriza sus ataques contra Ron Paul. Durante un acto en Muscatine, el ex Senador puso en cuestión la eficacia legislativa de Paul, señalando que en 20 años en el Congreso ha logrado pasar sólo una ley, y alertó a los votantes del peligro que supondría su elección para la seguridad nacional, indicando que pretende desmantelar la US Navy.

Perry en Cedar Rapids, Iowa

En una clara señal de que su campaña no va como esperaba, el Gobernador Perry centró ayer sus ataques en Rick Santorum. En un encuentro con votantes en una cafetería de Cedar Rapids, cuestionó sus credenciales conservadoras en asuntos fiscales por haber asignado a su estado fondos para proyectos especiales que para los conservadores son el símbolo del gasto excesivo.

(hacer click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

Bachmann en The Situation Room (CNN)

Bachmann cuenta que Ron Paul ofreció dinero al ex chairman de su campaña en Iowa, Kent Sorenson, para que se cambiara de bando.

Gingrich en The Kudlow Report (CNBC)

El Speaker Gingrich comenta una reciente encuesta que habla de triple empate en Iowa, y dice que su campaña saldrá de allí con suficiente fuerza para competir después en New Hampshire y, sobre todo, Carolina del Sur. "No creo que un moderado de Massachusetts funcione muy bien en Carolina del Sur," ha dicho refiriéndose a Romney.

jueves, 29 de diciembre de 2011

Gallup Daily: Romney recupera el liderato nacional


Bachmann despide (o pierde) a su directo político en Iowa

ABC News:
Bachmann’s Iowa political director, Wes Enos, who like Sorenson joined her campaign in its first days, released a statement under Ron Paul’s letterhead refuting Bachmann’s assertion that Sorenson had been paid to go. Sorenson and Enos both say the state senator decided to back Paul because he had many friends on that campaign, and believed Paul has the best chance of winning.

According to Bachmann spokeswoman Alice Stewart, Enos “is no longer with us,” but she would not confirm whether he’d been fired for insubordination or left on his own accord.

She said her campaign’s organization was strong and she had registered 95 county chairs for caucus night. She said the Paul campaign went after Sorenson after she dealt Rep. Ron Paul a blow in the last televised debate, hammering him on national security issues.

¿Hay miedo a Ron Paul? (VI)

Un video comparativo en el que podemos ver lo que los grandes medios de comunicación decían sobre la importancia del Caucus de Iowa hace cuatro años, y lo que dicen este año desde que Ron Paul pasó a liderar las encuestas.

Santorum en America Live (Fox News)

El Senador Santorum se ha defendido del anuncio de radio de Rick Perry que le acusa de apoyar la asignación de fondos especiales para su estado.

"Si miras la Constitución, la Constitución otorga al Congreso el poder sobre los fondos. El Congreso es el que se supone que gasta el dinero, así que la idea de que las asignaciones para proyectos especiales están de alguna manera contra la Constitución es símplemente incorrecto basándonos en los hechos... He defendido mis asignaciones de fondos en el sentido de que estoy orgulloso del dinero que reservé para cosas que eran prioritarias en mi estado."

"20 to 1"

Winning Our Future, el Super PAC de Gingrich, defiende a su candidato de los ataques en este anuncio que lanzará en Iowa.

NARRADOR: "El establishment republicano quiere elegir a nuestro candidato. Cuando un conservador con principios tomó el liderato, ellos gastaron veinte veces más que Newt Gingrich, atacándolo con falsedades. Los conservadores necesitamos a alguien que ha luchado por nosotros. Newt equilibró el presupuesto federal, reformó la asistencia social, recortó impuestos, y creó 11 millones de nuevos empleos. Newt se enfrentará a los jueces radicales y luchará contra el aborto. No dejes que el establishment republicano liberal elija a nuestro candidato. Newt Gingrich."

PPP: Romney 36%, Paul 21%, Gingrich 13% en NH

Public Policy Polling:
PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds everything pretty much as it was a week and a half ago with one exception: Newt Gingrich's support continues to plummet in the state, allowing Ron Paul to move into a clear second place.

Mitt Romney continues to have a solid lead in the state with 36% to 21% for Paul, 13% for Gingrich, 12% for Jon Huntsman, 7% for Michele Bachmann, and 3% each for Buddy Roemer, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum. Every candidate is within 2 points of their standing when PPP polled New Hampshire 2 weekends ago with the exception of Gingrich, who has dropped from 17% to 13%.

There's little to suggest anyone could come from behind to defeat Romney in New Hampshire. He has the best favorability numbers in the state at 63/32 and 78% of his supporters are strongly committed to him, higher even than Paul's number on that front. 44% of voters think he has the best chance of beating Obama with Gingrich the next closest at 11%. 40% think he has run the strongest campaign in the state, with the next closest Paul at 15%. And there's a sense of inevitability about him- 47% think he will win the state 13% for Paul with no one else in double digits. Romney's even winning the Tea Party vote 26-20 over Gingrich, a feat he's not managing in too many states.

Paul's second place standing in New Hampshire is being driven by the same groups he's doing well with in Iowa: young people and non-Republicans. With voters under 45 Paul actually leads Romney by a 27-24 margin. But Romney is destroying Paul 46-11 with seniors, accounting for most of his overall advantage. With non-Republicans, almost 40% of the vote in New Hampshire, the race is very close with Romney at 27%, Paul at 24%, and Huntsman at 21%. But with actual Republican voters Romney has the 42-19 advantage.

"Win Iowa"

Perry solicita el voto en lo que parece su último anuncio en Iowa.

GOBERNADOR PERRY: "Hola, soy Rick Perry. Hemos viajado por todo el estado, me habéis dado una lección de humildad con vuestra dedicación. Desde cafeterías, town halls, iglesias, hemos hablado sobre el futuro de nuestros hijos. Conocéis mi historial: crear 1 millón de empleos mientras el resto de la nación perdía 2 millones, me he resistido a la guerra de Obama contra la religión, y he propuesto un Congreso de tiempo parcial, recortando su sueldo, haciéndolos responsables. Me siento honrado de tener vuestro apoyo el 3 de enero. Soy Rick Perry, un outsider que revisará Washington."


El nuevo anuncio de Perry es una variación del último, en el que criticaba a los Congresistas que se presentan a Presidente.

NARRADOR: "El zorro protegiendo el gallinero es como poner a un Congresista a arreglar Washington. Una mala idea. Sus años en el Congreso nos han dejado con deuda, rescates financieros. Los Congresistas ganan 174,000 dólares al año. Nosotros pagamos la factura. Necesitamos una solución."

GOBERNADOR PERRY: "Es por eso que he exigido un Congreso de tiempo parcial. Recortar su sueldo a la mitad, recortar su tiempo en Washington a la mitad, recortar su personal a la mitad, enviarlos a casa, que consigan un empleo como todo el mundo."

Guía para Iowa y NH

NBC News publica esta guía en pdf que contiene datos de interés sobre el Caucus de Iowa y la primaria de New Hampshire. Guardadla.

Ron Paul minimiza la polémica de los newsletters

"Hubo muchos momentos en que no edité los artículos completos y otras cosas fueron añadidas. No estuve al corriente de los detalles hasta muchos años después. (Las partes ofensivas) fueron sentencias que fueron añadidas, ocho o diez sentencias. No fue un reflejo de mis opiniones en ningún caso."

Dice que él sólo estuvo a cargo de la parte económica de la publicación.

¿Hay miedo a Ron Paul? (V)

Dick Morris en Fox News describe a Ron Paul como "la persona más liberal y de la izquierda radical que se ha presentado a Presidente en los últimos 50 años."

Huntsman en The Early Show (CBS)

"En Iowa cortan el maíz. Los Presidentes se eligen aquí en New Hampshire."

Este cañonazo contra los votantes de Iowa lo ha lanzado Jon Huntsman en The Early Show.

Romney puede ir añadiendo a su saco a ese 3-5% que las encuestas le auguraban a Huntsman en Iowa.

Gingrich en Fox & friends

El Speaker Gingrich dice que derrocará al régimen de Irán aplicando una estrategia empleada por Reagan, Thatcher y el Papa Juan Pablo II en los años 80, no basada en lo militar, sino en la psicología, la política, y la economía, porque cree que los iraníes menores de 40 años odian a su régimen.

Otro líder evangélico pide a Bachmann que se retire

El Reverendo Gary Gordon ha sido el último líder evangélico en pedirle a la Congresista Bachmann que retire su candidatura para que los conservadores sociales puedan unirse detrás de un sólo candidato.

Rasmussen: Romney abre su mayor ventaja sobre Obama (6 puntos)

Esto puede tener un impacto psicológico muy favorable a Romney entre los indecisos de Iowa.

Mitt Romney has now jumped to his biggest lead ever over President Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup. It’s also the biggest lead a named Republican candidate has held over the incumbent in Rasmussen Reports surveying to date.

The latest national telephone survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters favor the former Massachusetts governor, while 39% prefer the president. Ten percent (10%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Ningún republicano ha hecho nunca doblete en Iowa y NH

The Fix:
Since 1976 — the birth of the first-in-the-nation status for Iowa and New Hampshire — no non-incumbent GOP candidate has scored the daily double of winning both states back to back. Not one.

A quick history lesson: In 1980, George H.W. Bush won the Iowa caucuses but Ronald Reagan won the New Hampshire primary. In 1988, Bob Dole won Iowa and Bush won New Hampshire. Eight years later (1996), Dole won Iowa again but Pat Buchanan emerged victorious in New Hampshire. In 2000, George W. Bush was the prohibitive favorite for the nomination and won Iowa but watched as Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) cruised to a New Hampshire win. And, in 2008 former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee won Iowa but McCain took New Hampshire and, eventually, the nomination.

Perry lanza publicidad contra Santorum en la radio

Lo acusa de haber apoyado en el Senado asignaciones para proyectos especiales.

Iowa: tres nuevas encuestas, tres resultados diferentes

Rasmussen proyecta un empate técnico entre Romney y Paul:
•Mitt Romney 23%
•Ron Paul 22%
•Rick Santorum 16%
•Newt Gingrich 13%
•Rick Perry 13%
•Michele Bachmann 5%
•Jon Huntsman 3%

Survey of 750 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants was conducted December 28, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
Insider Adavntage da un triple empate:
•Ron Paul 17%
Mitt Romney 17%
Newt Gingrich 17%
•Rick Santorum 13%
•Michele Bachmann 12%
•Rick Perry 10%
•Jon Huntsman 3%

Among Registered Voters Who Will be Voting in Iowa's Republican Presidential Primary.
American Research Group da ventaja a Romney:
•Mitt Romney 22%
•Newt Gingrich 17%
•Ron Paul 16%
•Rick Santorum 11%
•Rick Perry 9%
•Michele Bachmann 8%
•Jon Huntsman 6%
•Buddy Roemer 1%
•Other 1%
•Undecided 9%

Survey 600 of likely Republican caucus-goers (473 Republicans, 123 Independents, and 4 Democrats) was conducted December 26-28, 2011. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID: 79% {78%} Republican; 21% {22%} Independent.

Encuesta de CNN/TIME subestima los apoyos de Ron Paul en Iowa

Nate Silver:
The new CNN poll of Iowa contains a methodological quirk that is worth bringing to your attention and which will probably result in the survey underestimating the support for Ron Paul.

The issue is that CNN’s Iowa poll was conducted by using a list of registered Republican voters and registered Republicans only:

Sample was drawn from the complete list of registered Republican voters provided by the Iowa Secretary of State.

What’s wrong with using a list of Republican voters for a Republican caucus poll? The answer is that it’s extremely easy for independent and Democratic voters to register or re-register as Republicans at the caucus site. Historically, a fair number of independent voters do this.

"Freedom And Opportunity"

Romney hace un alegato final de un minuto en su sexto y último anuncio en Iowa.

GOBERNADOR ROMNEY: "Cuando generaciones de inmigrantes miraban hacia arriba y veían la Estatua de la Libertad por primera vez, sabían algo por encima de cualquier duda: que venían a un lugar en el que todo es posible, que en América sus hijos tendrían una mejor vida. Yo creo en esa América. El espíritu de iniciativa, innovación, vanguardia, y el todo es posible, impulsaron nuestro nivel de vida y economía más allá que la de cualquier otra nación. Y en la campaña que viene, los ideales americanos de oportunidades y libertad económica necesitan una defensa clara y que no se disculpe. Y es mi intención hacerla porque lo he vivido. Simbolizamos la libertad, la oportunidad y la esperanza. Los principios que hicieron de esta nación grande y un poderoso líder del mundo, no han perdido su significado, nunca lo perderán. Soy Mitt Romney, creo en América, y me presento a Presidente de los Estados Unidos."

Eventos de campaña en directo

En CNN Live (en las ventanitas de la derecha vais seleccionando lo que queréis ver).

08:50 AM Race to 2012: Romney talks to voters
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney discuss jobs and the economy with potential caucus voters in Cedar Falls, Iowa.

09:00 AM Race to 2012: Santorum’s Iowa town hall
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum holds a town hall-style meeting in Coralville, Iowa.

10:00 AM Race to 2012: Gingrich visits campaign office
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks to supporters and reporters at his campaign office in Sioux City, Iowa.

11:00 AM Race to 2012: Bachmann talks to reporters
GOP presidential candidate Rep. Michele Bachmann speaks to reporters in Des Moines. She may discuss the departure of one of her advisers.

01:00 PM Race to 2012: Santorum holds town hall
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum hosts a town hall-style meeting in Muscatine, Iowa.

01:00 PM Race to 2012: Ron Paul’s Iowa town hall
GOP presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul hosts a town hall-style meeting in Perry, Iowa.

01:30 PM Race to 2012: Gingrich hosts town hall
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich holds a town hall-style meeting in Storm Lake, Iowa.

04:00 PM Race to 2012: Paul holds town hall
GOP presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul participates in a town hall-style meeting in Atlantic, Iowa.

06:00 PM Race to 2012: Gingrich makes hotel stop
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks with supporters at a hotel in Denison, Iowa.

06:30 PM Race to 2012: Romney rallies supporters
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney holds a campaign rally for supporters in Ames, Iowa.

07:00 PM Race to 2012: Huntsman in New Hampshire
GOP presidential candidate Jon Huntsman hosts a town hall-style meeting in Wolfeboro, New Hampshire.

08:00 PM Race to 2012: Santorum’s Iowa campaign rally
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum hosts a campaign rally for supporters in Davenport, Iowa.

08:00 PM Race to 2012: Gingrich goes to the vineyard
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks to potential caucus voters at a vineyard and winery in Carroll, Iowa.

Aparte, en C-SPAN podéis ver un town hall meeting de Rick Perry en Cedar Rapids, Iowa, a la 1:30 pm.

Ron Paul enseña a posar a un perro

Después de un rally en Des Moines, el candidato posó para la foto con sus seguidores (y sus mascotas).

El presidente de Team Bachmann en Iowa se pasa a Team Paul

El hasta ahora co-presidente de la campaña de Michele Bachmann en Iowa, el legislador estatal Kent Sorensen, se ha pasado al bando de Ron Paul a sólo cinco días del Caucus. Lo ha hecho porque considera a Paul "el más conservador".

Esto pasa cuando un candidato tiene el momentum y el otro no.


El Super PAC de Romney vuelve a atacar a Gingrich. Al parecer, lo siguen considerando como el rival más peligroso a largo plazo. O tal vez se han dado cuenta de que Romney es la segunda opción de sus votantes.

NARRADORA: "¿Notas cómo algunas personas cometen muchos errores?

(clips de Gingrich admitiendo que comete errores)

"Hasta ahora Newt Gingrich ha admitido sus errores y ha volteado sobre formar equipo con Nancy Pelosi, inmigración, Medicare, asistencia sanitaria, Iraq, atacar a Mitt Romney, y más. ¿No hemos tenido bastantes errores?"

Ron Paul en Des Moines, Iowa

Rally con veteranos de guerra.

Romney en Clinton, Iowa

Gingrich en Mason City, Iowa

(hacer click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

Los Romney en The Situation Room (CNN)

Mitt y Ann Romney hablan sobre la lucha de ella contra la esclerosis múltiple.

Ann Romney cuenta que ella animó a su marido a volver a presentarse a la Presidencia.

Santorum en The Situation Room (CNN)

Wolf Blitzer le hace su pregunta favorita: ¿Votaría a Ron Paul si fuera el candidato republicano?

El Senador Santorum dice que "absolutamente". Matiza que le preocupa que "Ron Paul entre el primer día y retire todas nuestras tropas y deje un enorme vacío en el mundo", pero añade que tiene confianza en que existen formas de ejercer suficiente presión sobre un Presidente para evitar que tome ese tipo de decisiones.

Perry en On The Record (Fox News)

Perry habla sobre el último anuncio que lanzó describiendo a sus rivales como insiders de Washington DC.

Bachmann en The O'Reilly Factor (Fox News)

Bachmann descarta que Ron Paul pueda ganar porque es demasiado "peligroso por su política exterior". Dice que quiere ser "la dama de hierro de América".

Huntsman en The O'Reilly Factor (Fox News)

Eric Bolling interroga a Huntsman sobre su supuesta moderación y sobre por qué cree que puede ganar en New Hampshire.

miércoles, 28 de diciembre de 2011


Red, White, and Blue Fund, el Super PAC de Rick Santorum, ha pagado 250,000 dólares en espacio publicitario en la tv de Iowa para lanzar este anuncio en la recta final de la campaña.

NARRADOR: "Por toda Iowa hay un conservador con principios uniendo a los republicanos. Rick Santorum. Entregado defensor de los nonatos. Líder decidido en la lucha contra el Islam radical. Reformador valiente con resultados. Rick Santorum está preparado para enfrentarse a Barack Obama y restaurar la grandeza de América. Está probado y preparado para liderar. Rick Santorum, un conservador de verdad en el que América puede confiar."

"Believe in America"

Citizens for a Working America, un PAC conservador con sede en los suburbios de Washington DC, creado el año pasado para ayudar a candidatos republicanos en las midterms, también se suma a la campaña pro-Romney con el lanzamiento de un anuncio de 30 segundos en Iowa.

NARRADOR: "Mitt Romney siempre ha sido un hombre con un plan. Con la economía americana en apuros, el plan de Romney puede traer empleos a Iowa. Apoya una enmienda de presupuesto equilibrado, recortar el gasto inmediatamente en miles de millones de dólares, y recortar impuestos de modo que la gente pueda volver a trabajar. Infórmate sobre este exhaustivo plan para conseguir que América funcione otra vez, visitando MittRomney.com y volvamos a creer en América."

Romney sí votaría a Ron Paul

Se lo ha dicho a Wolf Blitzer (CNN) en su autobús de campaña.

Gingrich confía más en Carolina del Sur que en Iowa

En una entrevista con la NBC, el Speaker Gingrich rebaja expectativas de cara al Caucus de Iowa. Dice que espera quedar tercero o cuarto el próximo martes pero pronostica que lo hará mejor en Carolina del Sur.

"Todo aquel que ha ganado Carolina del Sur ha sido el nominado... Nuestro mayor equipo (de campaña) está en Carolina del Sur."

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

CNN/TIME: Romney, cómodo en NH; atención a Santorum en Iowa

Romney now leads the pack with support from 25% of likely Iowa caucus-goers, while Paul boasts 22%, both posting a five-point gain since early December. While Romney’s lead in Iowa is tenuous, his continued strength across the board raises the possibility that the establishment front-runner could win his party’s nomination in a clean sweep.

Bolstering that possibility is the collapse of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who led in Iowa with 33% less than a month ago, but has seen his front-runner status disintegrate under a torrent of negative advertising and now claims just 14% support. Some of his voters have scattered, providing small bumps to Romney and Paul as well as Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Texas Governor Rick Perry. But the biggest beneficiary of Gingrich’s collapse appears to be former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who’s rocketed into third place with 16%, a dramatic 11-point climb in three short weeks. Santorum now leads among born-again Christians, and is tied with Paul and Romney among self-described conservatives and Tea Party supporters. The surge by Santorum, who’s quietly made stops in each of Iowa’s 99 counties and won the endorsement of some of the state’s top evangelical leaders, only adds suspense to next week’s caucuses, the outcome of which remains incredibly unpredictable.

The race in New Hampshire, meanwhile, appears to have settled. Gingrich’s boomlet has subsided in the Granite State as well with his support there falling 10 points to 16% in the last month. But rather than splintering, almost all of those voters have swung to Romney, who maintains a commanding lead there with 44% backing, up nine points over the same time period. The rest of the field has remained static. Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman, who gained some traction in recent months, failed to catch fire, merely edging up one point to 9%. And even as Paul has moved to the front in Iowa, his New Hampshire support remains at 17%, second to Romney and now ahead of Gingrich, but still far off the lead.

"Main Street"

Nuevo anuncio de Gingrich en Iowa.

Se puede leer en pantalla, "refrendado por el arquitecto del plan económico de Reagan." Se refiere a Arthur Laffer, el gurú de la economía de la oferta, que recientemente ha dado su apoyo a Gingrich.

SPEAKER GINGRICH: "Si oyes que los altos niveles de desempleo son lo habitual, simplemente di 'tonterías'. Podemos creas millones de empleos ahora mismo. Mi plan incluye la revocación de las leyes que suben impuestos y estrangulan los negocios, recortar impuestos de manera que América sea otra vez el mejor lugar para invertir y crear empleos, y desatar el poder de nuestra industria energética. Ese es sólo el comienzo. Trabajando juntos podemos reconstruir la América que queremos y poner a la gente a trabajar otra vez."

Romney es menos polarizante que Gingrich y Obama

Gallup revela que Obama es un Presidente extremadamente polarizante que genera hoy mayor intensidad negativa entre los republicanos que intensidad positiva entre los demócratas.

En el GOP, Gingrich es el candidato más polarizante, el que genera reacciones partidistas más fuertes. Por contra, Romney es el menos polarizante, generando una intensidad negativa entre los demócratas inusualmente baja para un front-runner republicano, lo que lo convierte en el candidato con mayor potencial para extender sus apoyos más allá de las líneas partidistas.

Gallup Daily: Gingrich pierde su ventaja nacional

Romney 25% (24%) [23%]
Gingrich 25% (25%) [26%]
Paul 11% (11%) [12%]
Perry 8% (8%) [8%]
Bachmann 5% (6%) [6%]
Santorum 4% (3%) [3%]
Huntsman 1% (2%) [1%]

Una escena retrospectiva

(hacer click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

En este video podemos encontrar la explicación al sorprendente segundo puesto del pastor Pat Robertson en el Caucus republicano de Iowa en su edición de 1988.

Estamos en el 18º recinto del Caucus, en una escuela de primaria de Cedar Rapids. La chairwoman del Caucus en ese recinto, Eileen Oliphant, sigue el procedimiento habitual y pregunta a los allí reunidos a quién quieren nominar para la Presidencia.

Un hombre se levanta y habla a favor de Jack Kemp. Otro hombre dice que quiere hablar a favor de Pat Robertson. La señora Oliphant le dice que, según las normas, tiene que dar su nombre y dirección. El hombre lo hace y añade que le llamen "Tony". A continuación, ofrece un sentido discurso pidiendo el voto para Robertson. Poco después, la señora Oliphant invita a los presentes a votar (el proceso republicano es como un straw poll).

"Señora presidenta," dice Tony, señalando el pasillo, "tenemos 15 personas más, ¿qué quiere hacer?"

Vemos cómo acuden más personas a la asamblea y vemos al tal Tony, con buenos modales pero con vehemencia, pastoreando a los votantes y distribuyendo papeletas. Tony está en todas partes.

Cuando la señora Oliphant y sus colegas cuentan los votos, hay 65 para Dole, 53 para Robertson y 44 para Bush, a pequeña escala más o menos la misma proporción que habrá a nivel estatal.

Nadie esperaba que Robertson se colara entre Dole y Bush. Se daba por hecho que Dole y Bush se repartirían las dos primeras posiciones. Pero Robertson desplazó ni más ni menos que al Vicepresidente de los Estados Unidos. Y todo gracias a la apasionada dedicación de cientos de personas como este Tony que en diferentes recintos actuaron prácticamente como lo suelen hacer los whips legislativos en el Capitolio.

El Boston Herald apoya a Romney

Boston Herald:
We have referred in the past to the clown car nature of the Republican field as ego-driven candidates like Donald Trump flirted with the process only to be followed by the often engaging but deeply flawed candidacies of Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and finally Newt Gingrich.

It has been an entertaining several months, but really now, does anyone see even the remotest possibility of any of those folks taking the oath of office on the Capitol steps come Jan. 20, 2013?

So this is no longer a parlor game. Beginning Jan. 3 in Iowa this is very real indeed.

And there is only one candidate in the Republican field with the integrity, the experience, the organizational strength and the intelligence to beat Barack Obama and that man is Mitt Romney.

But perhaps more to the point, there is only one candidate who can put this nation back on the path to fiscal sanity and restore it to its central role on the world stage. That candidate is Mitt Romney.

Now we are more aware than most of our former governor’s reputation for being, well, a bit stiff. But this is a contest for what we used to call Leader of the Free World (before Barack Obama downgraded the job), not Mr. Congeniality or the guy you’d most like to have a beer with.

We don’t need a buddy in the White House; we need a leader — one who can work with a deeply divided Congress and a deeply divided nation.

Romney as governor of a thoroughly Democratic state actually managed to get things done during his tenure. That may be a blot on his record to those in the Republican Party who put ideological purity above all else, but in our book that’s actually a plus.

Among those accomplishments was health care reform — sure, call it Romneycare — but it works here for us and Mitt Romney has nothing to be ashamed of for having secured the best piece of legislation he could. And let’s not forget he did it with the threat of a universal health care bill headed for the ballot at the time and rising costs for treating the uninsured. It wasn’t as he would have crafted it, but it was a decent compromise.

It is not, as Romney has repeatedly said, the solution for other states — only a president who believes he has a monopoly on truth and righteousness (like the current one) would presume to impose his will on the entire nation.

Continuar leyendo (...)
El del Herald es un endorsement importante para Romney. Primero, porque es un periódico de línea editorial republicana con eco en algunas zonas de New Hampshire, y segundo, porque en 2008 apoyó a McCain.

Cómo desatascar el atasco Bachmann-Perry-Santorum

Nate Silver:
The most interesting thing about the latest polls in Iowa (which are the basis for our forecasts) is that they essentially show a four-way tie for third place among the Republican presidential contenders, with Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry all projected to receive between 11 and 14 percent of the vote.

This is especially interesting because these candidates, with the partial exception of Mr. Gingrich, have very similar platforms to one another. They are hoping for support from many of the same demographic groups, especially evangelical voters, and have struck many of the same themes in their attempts to appeal to caucus-goers.

If these candidates could somehow combine forces, they could very easily win the caucuses. Even if you exclude Mr. Gingrich from the group, Mr. Santorum, Mrs. Bachmann and Mr. Perry collectively have about 34 percent of the vote, well above the projected figure for either Ron Paul or Mitt Romney, the candidates leading the polls.

I cannot recall another instance in which you had a configuration of candidates quite like this one. I’m sure there have been cases in the past where you had a multi-way tie for second or third place in advance of a primary or caucus. But probably not one in which the candidates involved in the deadlock were so similar, or when they were each within striking distance of first place.

Is there any way to break the tie between them? That’s exactly what the conservative group The Family Leader was trying to do last week: pick one of these candidates and hope to build some momentum behind them. However, the group hedged on its endorsement, failing to throw its full support behind any of the candidates, although two influential members of the group later endorsed Mr. Santorum.

(...) There are extremely strong incentives for supporters of Mrs. Bachmann, Mr. Santorum and Mr. Perry to behave tactically, throwing their weight behind whichever one appears to have the best chance of finishing in the top two. What that means is that if any of these candidates appear to have any momentum at all during the final week of the campaign, their support could grow quite quickly as other voters jump on the bandwagon.

This is also a case in which the polling may actually influence voter behavior. In particular, if one of these candidates does well in the highly influential Des Moines Register poll that should be published on New Year’s Eve or thereabouts, that candidate might be a pretty good bet to over-perform polling as voters use that as a cue on caucus night to determine which one is most viable.