2012

ARG: Gingrich y Romney en cabeza en Alabama y Misssissippi

2012-03-12T12:46:00.005-04:00

Lo que se juegan los candidatos mañana en AL y MS

2012-03-12T11:07:00.003-04:00

*** Big stakes on Tuesday: After the weekend contests where Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum fought to a delegate draw -- with Santorum winning Kansas, and with Romney winning Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands, and more delegates out of Wyoming -- we now turn to Tuesday's primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. And the stakes, once again, are pretty high for the candidates.

Romney sneaking out a win in either of the contests would prove that he can win in the South and that conservative GOP voters are beginning to coalesce around his candidacy. But losses in them would confirm that Romney continues to have problems with these voters and -- more importantly -- that the primary season will last through April if not longer.

For Santorum, wins in both Alabama and Mississippi would prove that he's the chief conservative alternative to Romney, and that he has the momentum to keep this race going. But losing them would suggest his campaign is running out of gas.

And for Gingrich, winning both states would keep his candidacy alive, but losses in these southern states would reveal that he’s become a political zombie, propped up solely by Sheldon Adelson and the pro-Gingrich Super PAC. Those are the stakes for tomorrow.

Romney: estamos ganando estado a estado

2012-03-12T09:16:00.003-04:00

"Estamos atando la nominación. Estado a estado, delegado a delegado. Estamos ganando," ha respondido el Gobernador Romney a sus rivales en Fox & Friends desde una cafetería de Alabama. "Si yo soy un front-runner débil, ¿en qué convierte eso a Newt Gingrich? Porque voy muy por delante de él."

Santorum cree que derrotará a Romney en la convención

2012-03-12T08:50:00.003-04:00

Entrevistado en Today (NBC), el Senador Santorum dice que lo importante no son las "matemáticas," sino la "visión." Pronostica que si es capaz de impedir que Romney alcance los 1,144 delegados, será capaz de derrotarlo en la convención de Tampa. "Vamos a ver en breve que el candidato conservador va a crecer... y si vamos a la convención, este es un partido conservador."

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Gingrich piensa en Perry

2012-03-12T07:55:00.004-04:00

Fox News informa que Gingrich planea ofrecerle la Vicepresidencia a Rick Perry con meses de antelación para unir el voto conservador, pensando en una convención abierta.

Sources close to the Gingrich campaign say preliminary "what-if" conversations are underway that could lead to a Gingrich-Perry ticket being announced prior to the Republican National Convention at the end of August.

Gingrich insiders hope forming a predetermined ticket with Perry will unite the evangelical, Tea Party and very conservative voters that make up the core of the GOP.

As discussions got underway, a spokesman for Texas Gov. Rick Perry released a statement saying, "Gov. Perry thinks Newt Gingrich is the strongest conservative to debate and defeat President Obama and truly overhaul Washington. The speculation is humbling but premature."

El movimiento recordaría al de Reagan con Schweiker en el 76, en aquel caso para atraer el apoyo de los delegados liberales, que resultó ser un fracaso.

Llama la atención que la información se filtre cinco meses antes de la convención, cuando el candidato tiene poco más de 100 delegados. Puede que sea un gesto dirigido a los conservadores de Alabama y Mississippi.

Mejor preparado para la larga distancia

2012-03-12T07:46:00.002-04:00

ABC News:

If and when Romney locks down the GOP nod, this weekend’s voting will mark a case in point as to how. Romney was decimated in the biggest contest held Saturday, in Kansas, with Rick Santorum securing an outright majority in a four-way field, and Romney struggling to hit 20 percent.

But Romney appears likely to walk away from the weekend with about as many delegates in his column, and possibly even more. Romney won overwhelmingly in the U.S. territories of Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the Virgin Islands; add that to the final set of caucus contests in Wyoming, and Romney got to wash out his big loss in Kansas.

That means a handful of contests where turnout is rivaled by class presidency elections in midsize high schools may end up being responsible for selecting the party’s nominee. To cite one example, 181 individuals attended the Guam Republican convention, according to the territory’s party. (In Kansas, turnout topped 30,000.)

Wins like this weekend’s did not happen by accident. Romney’s was the only campaign to prepare for the long haul of the race with detailed legal and structural plans for how to win delegates in every obscure corner. That work is now paying off, as the battle for 1,144 Republican National Convention delegates slogs on.

PPP: "too close to call" en Alabama y Mississippi

2012-03-12T07:32:00.004-04:00

Public Policy Polling:

Tuesday looks like it's going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich's net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It's a similar story in Alabama where Santorum's at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney's at only +13 (53/40).

The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as 'very conservative' and Romney's getting only 26% with them. But he's still in the mix because Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify as 'very conservative,' Romney's at just 24%. But again he remains competitive overall because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and Gingrich at 31%.

It's not really clear who, if anyone, has the momentum in these states. In Mississippi folks who've decided in the last few days go for Gingrich over Santorum 37-29 with Romney at only 15%. But in Alabama the late deciders go 38-29 for Romney over Santorum with Gingrich at 23%.

About all we know is that Ron Paul won't win any of these states on Tuesday...the other three candidates all have a shot in both of them.

Gingrich en Brandon, Mississippi

2012-03-12T07:30:00.002-04:00

(click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

Gingrich en Fox News Sunday

2012-03-12T07:22:00.002-04:00

"Creo que ganaremos los dos (Alabama y Mississippi). Estamos haciendo una campaña muy agresiva en ambos estados," dijo el Speaker Gingrich. Predijo que Romney no alcanzará el número de delegados necesario para salir nominado, desencadenando "una conversación de 60 días sobre qué va a pasar."

Gingrich en Face The Nation (CBS)

2012-03-11T12:15:00.002-04:00

El Speaker Gingrich ha reiterado su decisión de llegar hasta el final, hasta la convención de Tampa, pase lo que pase el próximo martes. Ha dicho que espera hacerlo bien en Alabama y Mississippi, aunque ha evitado entrar a valorar si son o no victorias obligadas para él. "Son estados que quiero ganar. Creo que tenemos buenas posibilidades de ganar."

Santorum en Meet The Press (NBC)

2012-03-11T11:38:00.001-04:00

El Senador Santorum ha argumentado que, a pesar de la actual ventaja de Romney en delegados, sus números están lejos de ser definitivos.

"Esto no es una fórmula matemática. Esta competición tiene montones de dinámicas... Ganamos Iowa por apenas 34 votos. Pero ayer celebraron sus convenciones (de condados). Vamos a ganar una vasta mayoría de delegados en Iowa pero nadie lo incluye en sus cálculos. Nos tienen ganando por un voto. Ese no va a ser el caso cuando los delegados de esos caucuses sean realmente elegidos. Los números van a cambiar dramáticamente."

Ha dicho que intentará hacerse con la victoria en Alabama y Mississippi el martes, pero que no será nada fácil porque son un "durísimo campo de batalla" en el que parte con la desventaja de enfrentarse, por un lado, a Gingrich en su "patio trasero," y por otro lado, a "Mitt y el establishment."

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Las Grandes Llanuras, el talón de Aquiles de Romney

2012-03-11T10:40:00.005-04:00

Nate Silver (New York Times) compara el procentaje de votos recibido por Romney en los condados suburbanos de todas las regiones del país, y destaca que el comportamiento del electorado suburbano en las Grandes Llanuras (región en la que Santorum ha cosechado casi todas sus victorias, la última ayer en Kansas) y en menor medida en el Sur, es muy diferente a la del electorado de características similares en otras regiones del país.

Más de la mitad del electorado de Paul en KS cabía en un auditorio

2012-03-11T08:03:00.004-04:00

En la imagen de arriba, vemos un mitin de Santorum en Kansas que atrajo a unas pocas decenas de personas. En la imagen de abajo, más de 2,000 personas ocupan un auditorio de Kansas para escuchar a Ron Paul. En el Caucus, Santorum recibió 15,290 votos y Paul recibió sólo 3,767 votos. Conclusión: los votantes que acuden a los mítines son una minoría ociosa; el grueso del electorado se limita a votar.

PPP: triple empate en AL; MS entre Gingrich y Romney

2012-03-11T07:51:00.001-04:00

Public Policy Polling adelanta en twitter:

Alabama looks like a 3 way tie with maybe slight advantage Romney...but it's just the first round of calls.

Mississippi looks like it's between Gingrich and Romney with Santorum falling well back.

Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV: Illinois, como Ohio

2012-03-11T07:40:00.002-04:00

Chicago Tribune:

Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney's campaign has long considered Illinois to be in its win column, but a new Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows the candidate has some work to do to make that a reality.

The survey found Romney slightly ahead of Rick Santorum, 35 percent to 31 percent — within the poll's 4-percentage-point margin of error. Trailing far behind were Newt Gingrich with 12 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul with 7 percent. Another 16 percent were undecided.

There's room for movement ahead of Illinois' March 20 primary, however. Fully 46 percent of voters said they could still change their minds before the election.

(...) Illinois was expected to be a firewall for Romney after Tuesday primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, a pair of southern states where he's lowered expectations. There are typically more moderate GOP voters in Chicago's suburbs, and Romney's campaign has some operational depth here.

And the poll showed Romney is doing well in the suburbs. In Cook County, he leads Santorum 39 percent to 30 percent. In the more heavily Republican collar counties, Romney held a 39 percent to 27 percent edge.

But Santorum holds a 35 percent to 29 percent advantage in the 96 counties outside the Chicago area, where Republican voters tend to be more conservative. The Illinois poll results mirror the suburban-rural dynamic that played out in Ohio on Super Tuesday, where Romney gained a close but needed victory last week.

Recuento de delegados

2012-03-11T07:26:00.005-04:00

Santorum se llevó el premio gordo del sábado, Kansas, pero Romney sumó unos pocos delegados más que él con sus esperadas victorias en Guam, las Islas Marianas del Norte y las Islas Vírgenes, mas un puñado de delegados en Wyoming y Kansas.

Según Associated Press, el total de delegados quedaría así:

* Se necesitan 1,144 delegados para ganar la nominación.

Romney se lleva 7 delegados de las Islas Vírgenes: Paul se lleva 1

2012-03-11T07:17:00.004-04:00

The Washington Post:

The Republican Party chairman in the U.S. Virgin Islands says Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney has won the territory’s GOP caucus.

Chairman Herb Schoenbohm says Romney can count on seven delegates from the Virgin Islands. He already had three superdelegates before Saturday’s caucuses and he picked up three more in voting in St. Thomas and St. Croix. After the vote, an uncommitted delegate switched to Romney.

Ron Paul got one delegate, and one delegate remains uncommitted.

Wyoming reparte otros 6 delegados

2012-03-10T18:43:00.004-05:00

The Northwesterner:

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has picked up three of six delegates at stake at Wyoming on Saturday but still trails former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the state.

Santorum won delegates at caucuses in Park, Platte and Carbon counties, while Romney won a delegate in Johnson County.

Sublette and Lincoln counties had yet to vote Saturday.

Twelve delegates were up for grabs in Wyoming this week. Romney has won five, Santorum three and Texas Rep. Ron Paul one. A tenth delegate is uncommitted.

No preguntéis. No entiendo las convenciones de Wyoming.

Santorum celebra su victoria

2012-03-10T18:39:00.001-05:00

Ha recibido los resultados mientras hacía campaña en Springfield, Missouri.

Santorum gana el Caucus de Kansas

2012-03-10T18:21:00.006-05:00

Con el 100% escrutado:

Santorum 15,290 votos 51.2%
Romney 6,250 votos 20.9%
Gingrich 4,298 votos 14.4%
Paul 3,767 votos 12.6%

Santorum ha ganado en los cuatro distritos electorales del estado, incluido el tercero (condados de Wyandotte y Johnson, suburbios de Kansas City y Overland Park). Pero no se lleva la delegación completa porque Romney ha superado por los pelos la barrera del 20%. Santorum se lleva 33 delegados y Romney 7. Al parecer, los superdelegados de Kansas (3) sí tienen la obligación de apoyar en la convención al candidato que ha ganado el caucus.

70% escrutado en Kansas

2012-03-10T15:42:00.004-05:00

Con el 70% escrutado:

Santorum 8,883 votos (53.4%)
Romney 2,810 votos (16.9%)
Gingrich 2,581 votos (15.5%)
Paul 2,194 votos (13.2%)

Resultados: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com

47% escrutado en Kansas

2012-03-10T15:07:00.004-05:00

Con el 47% escrutado:

Santorum 4,325 votos (53.8%)
Gingrich 16.8% 1,355 votos (16.8%)
Romney 16.8% 1,350 votos (16.8%)
Paul 11.5% 927 votos (11.5%)

Resultados: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com

Pase lo que pase el martes, Gingrich descarta la retirada

2012-03-10T12:41:00.001-05:00

ABC News:

Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich says he won’t be dropping out of the race for the nomination anytime soon, even if he loses the Southern states Mississippi and Alabama on Tuesday.

“We’ll clearly do well enough to move on and I think there’s a fair chance we’ll win. But I just want to set this to rest once and for all, we’re going to Tampa,” Gingrich said in an interview with The Associated Press.

ASU: Gingrich 21%, Romney 20%, Santorum 17% en Alabama

2012-03-10T12:33:00.004-05:00

The Montgomery Advertiser:

The support for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is increasing in Alabama and he is in a virtual dead heat with former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney headed into the state's presidential primary on Tuesday, according to a poll released Friday by Alabama State University. The support has waned, however, for former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

About 20.7 percent of likely registered Republican voters surveyed said they would vote for Gingrich compared to 13.8 percent who said they would vote for him in February, according to the poll conducted Monday through Thursday.

“According to our poll results that ended last evening, Gingrich is coming on strong in Alabama and his numbers are still rising,” said Thomas Vocino, director of the university’s Center for Leadership & Public Policy, which conducted the poll of 416 people. “His support was declining five weeks earlier (according to the center's February poll) and now Gingrich appears to be the comeback candidate at the expense of Santorum and Romney.”

Santorum led the four remaining Republican candidates in a poll conducted by the center in February. Santorum's numbers climbed from 9 percent on Feb. 2 and increased to 22.7 percent by March 1, according to polling data from the university. But, in the most recent poll that concluded on Thursday, Santorum's support had dropped to 16.7 percent among those surveyed.

The support for Romney, the national frontrunner, was steady at between 16 percent and 18 percent in February and increased to 20.2 percent in the most recent survey.

There are still a sizeable number of undecided voters in the Alabama Republican presidential primary, 27.4 percent, according to the university poll.

(...) The poll did not ask those surveyed about U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. About 15.1 percent of those surveyed did answer "others."

Romney gana los 9 delegados de las Islas Marianas del Norte

2012-03-10T12:28:00.003-05:00

WCVB TV:

Republican Mitt Romney won the Northern Mariana Islands caucuses early Saturday, picking up nine delegates as well as his second victory of the weekend in a distant U.S. territory located on the other side of the International Date Line.

The former Massachusetts governor garnered 87% of the vote in a non-binding presidential preference poll conducted at the caucuses. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum was a distant second with 6%, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul who each received 3%.

"I was so pleased to talk with Mitt Romney yesterday and it was clear from that conversation he will not forgot us here in the [Northern Mariana Islands]," said Gov. Benigno Fitial, the chairman of the local Republican Party and head of the Islands' delegation to the Republican National Convention in Tampa. "I encourage the hundreds of thousands of Pacific Islanders living in the Continental U.S. to follow our lead and please support Governor Mitt Romney in the coming months."

Earlier this week, Romney's son Matt campaigned in Saipan, the territory's largest island, and in Guam, which also held caucuses Saturday. Romney picked up all nine delegates from that event as well.

¿Podría Santorum llevarse todos los delegados de Kansas?

2012-03-10T08:24:00.006-05:00

Para conseguirlo, tendría que ganar todos los distritos electorales y mantener a sus rivales por debajo del 20%. La clave la tendrá el voto suburbano del tercer distrito (Kansas City, Overland Park, Lenexa, Shawnee y Olathe).

Nate Silver nos lo explica:

Kansas’ Third Congressional District is different than the others; it features Kansas City, Kan., along with well-off suburbs like Overland Park that are socially moderate, and it narrowly voted for President Obama in 2008. The suburbs of the Third District have excellent schools and lots of upscale retail stores and are not altogether different from the nicer suburbs anywhere else in the Midwest, like in Oakland County, Mich., or the more well-to-do parts of Cuyahoga County, Ohio, places where Mitt Romney has done well so far.

The other three districts are conservative and solidly Republican. We’ll have more to come on Kansas’ political geography, but the basic takeaway is that Mitt Romney could fairly easily win the delegates in the Third District, while the other three districts and their nine delegates are likely to wind up in Rick Santorum’s hands.

Kansas’ remaining 25 delegates are allocated proportionately, although candidates are required to receive 20 percent of the vote statewide to qualify for their share. Mr. Santorum seems almost certain to meet that threshold and Mr. Romney will probably do so, although he did not meet that standard in the Minnesota caucuses, where he got just 17 percent of the vote; he also got just 25 percent of the vote in the Missouri “beauty contest” primary, despite Newt Gingrich not being on the ballot.

Ron Paul might be something of a toss-up to get his 20 percent of the vote. He got just 12 percent in the Missouri primary although he did much better in the Minnesota caucus, 27 percent.

One reasonable outcome could be something like Mr. Santorum with 45 percent of the vote, Mr. Romney 27 percent and Mr. Paul 18 percent, with Mr. Romney just barely edging out Mr. Santorum in the Third District but losing the other three. That would produce a fairly lopsided delegate allocation of 28 for Mr. Santourm and 12 for Mr. Romney, with Mr. Paul just missing the cut-off for being awarded proportional delegates.

(...) To repeat, Mr. Santorum looks like the favorite in Kansas, but there’s a wide range of outcomes, from Mr. Romney getting an extremely strong turnout in places like Overland Park and narrowly taking the state, to Mr. Santorum holding both Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich below 20 percent of the vote and sweeping all 40 delegates. I wish we did not have to equivocate so much, but prudence dictates that sort of caution given what we have seen in other caucus states.

Hoy vota Kansas

2012-03-10T06:52:00.001-05:00

Los caucuses de Kansas se reunirán a las 11 am (hora de la Costa Este) en 90 sitios habilitados alrededor de todo el estado, y terminarán a las 2 pm. Los votos se contarán allí mismo y se harán llegar los resultados al cuartel general del partido. Se espera que los primeros resultados (CNN / NYT) empiecen a publicarse hacia las 2:30 pm y que hacia las 5 o 6 pm ya sean definitivos.

El GOP de Kansas calcula que es posible que se alcance una participación de en torno a los 50,000 votantes. Se entregan 40 delegados: 25 se reparten proporcionalmente entre los candidatos que superen el 20% del voto estatal; 12 se entregan de tres en tres según el ganador en los cuatro distritos electorales del estado; y los 3 que quedan son superdelegados no comprometidos.

Romney gana los 9 delegados de Guam

2012-03-10T06:26:00.002-05:00

CNN:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won the unanimous vote among Guam Republicans to pledge all nine of their delegates to his presidential campaign.

The vote was passed Saturday by all 207 of the 215 registered Republicans in attendance at their yearly convention.

"I am grateful to have won all nine delegates in Guam," Romney said in a statement after the vote. "The people of Guam have always stood bravely for America and the values we hold dear. Today we stand together in our efforts to secure the future that this nation deserves."

Guam's delegates represent less than 1% of the 1,144 votes needed to win the Republican nomination. While the delegates of the pacific island are unpledged, the unanimous support ensures that all nine will vote to nominate Romney at the national convention this August in Tampa, Florida.

Ron Paul en la Universidad de Kansas

2012-03-10T06:22:00.001-05:00

Continúa: Parte 2 / Parte 3 / Parte 4

Gingrich en Hannity (Fox News)

2012-03-10T06:15:00.001-05:00

Santorum en John King USA (CNN)

2012-03-10T06:14:00.001-05:00

Romney no hará campaña en Kansas

2012-03-09T15:04:00.003-05:00

The Washington Post:

The former Pennsylvania senator figures to do well in Saturday’s voting as he looks for a post-Super Tuesday victory to help him collect delegates to the party’s convention and chip away at the lead built by the front-runner, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Santorum enjoys strong support among abortion opponents who are a powerful constituency within the Kansas GOP, including leaders of Kansans for Life.

Romney received a boost when Kansas GOP icon Bob Dole, the 88-year-old former U.S. Senate majority leader and 1996 presidential nominee, urged fellow Kansans to support him. But Romney wasn’t expected to visit before Saturday’s caucuses, possibly hurting his chances of picking up some of the state’s 40 delegates.

Santorum planned an event at a former Union Pacific railroad depot in Topeka, followed by a rally at a Wichita airport before leaving the state to campaign again in the South. His wife, Karen, was holding a cookies-and-coffee reception at his state headquarters in downtown Wichita.

Rasmussen: Romney, en cabeza en Mississippi

2012-03-09T14:53:00.002-05:00

Rasmussen:

Rasmussen Reports’ first Republican primary survey in Mississippi shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading his closest competitors by eight points. A new statewide telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in the Magnolia State shows Romney with 35% of the vote, while former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich each draw support from 27%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with six percent (6%). One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

Team Romney: si ganamos Alabama, sentenciamos las primarias

2012-03-09T11:09:00.002-05:00

POLITICO.com:

An official with Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign told supporters in an email that the former Massachusetts governor is within 1 point of victory in Alabama and can “end this process” by winning the state on Tuesday.

In a message obtained by POLITICO, regional political director Michael Joffrion asked Romney volunteers in Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia and Virginia to pitch in for next week’s elections – and close out the 2012 primary season.

“I know everyone is exhausted and still scattered brained from Tuesday. With that said, I need a HUGE favor. We are within one point here in Alabama. A win in Alabama will end this process,” Joffrion wrote.

He continued: “I am hoping we can get our folks in TN, NC, GA, and VA energized for just a couple more days and crank some calls into Alabama. Your respective states are pointed in here right now. Let’s plead with our volunteers to make some GOTV calls here.”

Es la misma situación que esta semana en Tennessee. Si ganaba, disipaba dudas en el Sur Profundo y liquidaba la estrategia de sus rivales. Pero los resultados estuvieron muy lejos de parecerse a los sondeos.

Rasmussen: triple empate en Alabama

2012-03-09T11:05:00.002-05:00

Rasmussen:

Alabama Republicans are up to bat next, and right now it’s a near three-way tie going into next Tuesday’s primary.

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Alabama finds Newt Gingrich barely ahead with 30% support to 29% for Rick Santorum and 28% for Mitt Romney. Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with seven percent (7%) of the vote. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.

El poder creciente de los Super PACs

2012-03-09T08:20:00.004-05:00

Hace cuatro años no existían y este año están alterando la mecánica de la campaña.

El Gobernador de Mississippi apoya a Romney

2012-03-09T08:14:00.002-05:00

Gobernador Phil Bryant, de Mississippi:

"Necesitamos a alguien que pueda ganar esta campaña. Creo que Mitt Romney es el candidato republicano que puede ser nominado y puede derrotar a Barack Obama. Es tan simple como eso. Quiero ganar."

Puede no llegar a los 1,144

2012-03-09T06:36:00.005-05:00

RealClearPolitics:

March

The rest of this month is absolutely brutal for Romney.

Great Plains: Kansas. Assume Santorum wins here by a margin roughly equal to that in North Dakota, and wins all the state’s districts except for the 3rd (Kansas City).

South: Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana. This could go either way between Gingrich and Santorum. Let’s assume that these states have roughly the results of Tennessee, while acknowledging that they could look like Georgia. Romney will probably still win the Birmingham districts in Alabama and the New Orleans districts in Louisiana, but other than that will likely be shut out.

Midwest: Illinois, Missouri. I think the former is fertile ground for Romney, but let’s assume that it is close, like Michigan and Ohio. We’ll have him split the districts 10/8. It’s hard to see Romney running any better in Missouri’s caucuses than he did in the primary, so let’s give the caucuses to Santorum with the same margins as North Dakota.

West: Hawaii. Give this to Romney, at the same rate as Alaska.

Miscellaneous: Northern Marianas, Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa, Puerto Rico. Anyone’s guess. Let’s divide evenly among the candidates. Puerto Rico is winner-take-all, so give that to Romney (who has run well with Latinos so far this cycle).

Note that Romney wins only two contests in actual states under this scenario. That is a serious momentum-sapper. Gingrich may have dropped out by this point, or become a non-factor, but since his votes probably go to Santorum, it's probably not relevant to our Romney-centric analysis here.

Rough delegate totals: Romney, 522; Santorum, 314; Gingrich 128; Paul 91.

April

Northeast: Maryland, D.C., New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware. Obviously, this is a nice stretch for Romney. There are some question marks here: Who is voting in the Republican primary in Jose Serrano’s 95 percent Obama district in New York? Anyway, we will model New York, D.C., and Maryland after Vermont; Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware more like Massachusetts (understanding that we’re probably being too generous to Romney with the latter and not generous enough with the former).

Midwest: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Again, assume Wisconsin is similar to Ohio, basically a tie. I think Santorum probably wins Pennsylvania.

Rough delegate totals : Romney, 704; Santorum, 389; Gingrich, 132; Paul 101.

May

South: Texas, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas. We’ll model the last three like Tennessee, though Santorum could run even better in these three than he did in the Volunteer State. The other two are anybody’s guess. Since I’d been so generous to Romney in the Northeast, I went ahead and modeled these like Tennessee. But given the strong Republican Party establishment, as well as the surfeit of wealthy suburban districts in both states, Romney really could over-perform. We’ll hedge somewhat by giving Romney 50 percent of the congressional districts in Texas, which assumes that he runs well in the suburban districts as well as the Latino districts, but that the relatively low turnout in the latter districts costs him the statewide win.

Midwest: Indiana. Modeled like Ohio/Michigan.

Great Plains: Nebraska. Modeled like North Dakota.

West: Oregon. Modeled like Washington state, though it isn’t as urbanized, and Romney could have a tougher time here.

Rough delegate totals : Romney, 845; Santorum, 575; Gingrich, 161; Paul 183.

Note that we’re almost done with primary season, and Romney only has three-fourths of the delegates he needs.

June

There are only six contests left at this point: California, New Jersey, South Dakota, Montana, New Mexico and Utah. New Jersey and Utah are obviously Romney-friendly, while South Dakota and Montana are Santorum-friendly. California is probably Romney-friendly, as is, probably, New Mexico, but California divvies up almost all of its delegates by congressional district.

I’ve said this before, but who is voting in a Republican primary in Maxine Waters’ district? I honestly have no clue whom they would favor -- and there are a lot of districts like this in California. The whites who vote in the Central Valley districts are culturally similar to Southern whites, and the mountain districts are awfully conservative as well. We’ll give Romney 42 districts, but this is probably giving him too much benefit of the doubt.

So what’s the bottom line here? Romney ends up with 1,071 delegates, still short of the nomination. Now, there are a few important caveats. First, there are 114 unpledged RNC delegates, who can vote for anyone. Second, there are another 86 delegates in states that have already voted that have yet to be allocated. Romney will probably get somewhere between a third and half of these delegates.

So a brokered convention is still a long shot, but (1) note how long it takes Romney to get into range; and (2) recall that we’ve perhaps been too generous with Romney in our delegate allocations in New York, Texas and California, especially after the brutal March he is likely about to have.

Super PAC de Romney anuncia más gastos en AL, MS, IL y LA

2012-03-09T06:23:00.004-05:00

ABC News:

On Wednesday, the Romney-backing super PAC Restore Our Future reported big purchases of TV time in Tuesday’s primary states of Mississippi and Alabama, as well as Illinois and Louisiana, which hold primaries on March 20 and March 24, respectively.

It was once unthinkable, according to conventional wisdom, that the Republican primary would stay competitive long enough for a heated battle over the heavily Democratic Illinois. However, Restore Our Future is spending more money there than in any other upcoming state–likely because ads in the Chicago media market are expensive.

Restore Our Future reported new spending of $901,438 in Illinois, $425,165 in Louisiana $680,385 in Alabama, and $581,183 in Mississippi.

No es Romney, es el cambio de reglas

2012-03-09T06:16:00.001-05:00

National Journal:

But just four years ago, another Republican moderate faced very similar problems as Romney, without getting nearly the amount of grief: John McCain. As this election's establishment candidate, Romney's performance has been remarkably similar to McCain, who had locked up the nomination at this time four years ago.

All told, Romney has won a larger share of the vote than McCain in 14 of the 22 states that have held binding primaries or caucuses so far. McCain has only performed better in eight (South Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Ohio/Vermont/Idaho - which held their primaries after McCain locked up the nomination). Romney ran well ahead of McCain in Florida (46 percent to 36 percent), Iowa (25 to 13 percent), Michigan (41 to 30 percent), New Hampshire (39 to 37 percent) and even out-tallied McCain in the senator's home state of Arizona (47.27 percent to 47.17 percent).

Like Romney, McCain didn't win a single Southern state on Super Tuesday, losing them all to Mike Huckabee.

I don't remember all that much grumbling, post-Super Tuesday 2008, of how weak a nominee John McCain was, even though he faced the same dynamic that's plaguing Romney - winning over the establishment, but struggling with the most conservative voters. If anything, that's even more animated this election cycle, with an ascendant and outspoken base dogging the frontrunner.

In reality, the main reason why Romney doesn't have this nomination close to locked up is because of the changed rules governing the nomination battle. Most states are awarding their delegates proportionally, rather than the winner-take-all system that most states adopted in the 2008 presidential contests. Even if Romney won every state so far, he'd still be far short of the 1,140 delegates necessary to officially clinch the nomination.

That's little consolation for the Romney campaign, which isn't expecting to wrap things up until the spring. But it should give some much-needed perspective to much of the commentariat, which is treating Romney's campaign as a historic failure. In reality, he's doing about as well as the Republican candidate with all the momentum at this time four years ago.

Una semana en la campaña de Gingrich

2012-03-09T06:09:00.000-05:00

Romney en Pascagoula, Mississippi

2012-03-09T06:07:00.001-05:00

Gingrich en On The Record (Fox News)

2012-03-09T06:01:00.000-05:00

Santorum en Piers Morgan Tonight (CNN)

2012-03-09T05:58:00.000-05:00

Santorum tiene cinco días para noquear a Gingrich

2012-03-08T18:17:00.002-05:00

First Read:

Rick Santorum's long-term campaign strategy is to upend the trajectory of the GOP primary, and snatch the Republican presidential nomination away from Mitt Romney.

But his more pressing, immediate concern involves winning on Saturday in Kansas, and on Tuesday in Alabama and Mississippi, by which he could finally push Newt Gingrich out of the race.

Santorum would still face long odds to become the Republican nominee, but any march to Tampa would be less impeded if Newt Gingrich were to exit. But the former speaker has suggested he won’t voluntarily drop out of the race before Tuesday, but by describing both contests as “must-win” affairs, he opened the door to being forced out by virtue of a loss in either state.

"The ability for conservatives to win the Republican nomination is greatly diminished by Gingrich in the race," said Stuart Roy, an adviser to the Red, White and Blue Fund, a pro-Santorum super PAC. "That's why we're investing in Mississippi and Alabama. We can win, and a win in either state would show the need for Gingrich to leave."

To that end, the super PAC went on air with ad buys in both Mississippi and Alabama totaling more than a combined $1 million. Their spot goes after both Gingrich and Romney, whose numbers with Republicans in both states are judged to be, at a minimum, positive enough that he might be able to squeak by in one of the contests if his campaign were to compete aggressively.

Santorum se queda fuera de la primaria de DC; no es elegible para 10 delegados en Illinois

2012-03-08T10:03:00.004-05:00

ABC News:

Rick Santorum’s ballot problems keep getting worse.

The candidate failed to appear on the ballot in Virginia on Super Tuesday, losing his chance to win 46 delegates. He also may have lost his chance at more than a quarter of the delegates in Ohio, after he failed to qualify full slates of delegates in a few congressional districts. (Ohio has not yet finalized its delegate allocation.)

In the coming month, Santorum will face similar problems in Washington, D.C. and Illinois.

Santorum will not be on the ballot in D.C.’s primary, a true winner-take-all contest on April 3, costing him a chance at the District’s 16 allocated delegates (out of 19 total).

His failure to qualify in the nation’s capital hints at organizational challenges.

Compared to Virginia, where Newt Gingrich also failed to meet relatively weighty requirements — and also failed to appear on the ballot — D.C.’s qualification standards are meager.

By Jan. 4, candidates had to either collect 296 signatures and pay $5,000 to the D.C. GOP, or forgo the signatures entirely and pay a higher fee of $10,000—a new option passed by the D.C. Council and signed by Mayor Vincent Gray in late December.

Santorum’s campaign did not pay the fee, nor did it request a petition for signatures, according to a board official. In fact, the Santorum camp made no contact with the D.C. Board of Elections, the official said.

Mitt Romney, by contrast, sent his son Josh to drop off 700 signatures at the D.C. elections board, in person, three weeks before the deadline.

In Illinois, Santorum failed to file slates of delegates in a handful of congressional districts, similar to the shortcomings he faced in Ohio. The former senator will, however, appear on Illinois’s statewide presidential-preference ballot in the March 20 primary.

The failure to file slates of delegates in some districts will cost Santorum the chance to win 10 delegates, out of the 54 allocated at Illinois’s congressional-district level. Another 15 Illinois delegates will not be awarded to any candidate in advance; those delegates can support whomever they choose at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla., this August.

Santorum quiere un mano a mano con Romney

2012-03-08T09:46:00.004-05:00

En su primera visita a Mississippi, el Senador Santorum hizo un llamamiento al voto útil de los conservadores que todavía dudan entre él y Gingrich:

"Os pido que me apoyéis, que os unáis a mí, que trabajéis conmigo en los próximos días en Mississippi. Si ganamos Mississippi, esta será una competición entre dos personas. Y si es una competición entre dos personas, nominaremos a un conservador para Presidente. Y si nominamos a un conservador para Presidente, ganaremos estas elecciones."

Gingrich comprueba el precio de la gasolina

2012-03-08T09:39:00.001-05:00

En una gasolinera de Pell City, Alabama.

ASU: Santorum 23%, Romney 19%, Gingrich 14% en Alabama

2012-03-08T07:37:00.003-05:00

Press-Register:

A new poll released on the eve of Rick Santorum’s first campaign visit to Alabama shows the former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania leading in the state Republican Party presidential primary.

The statewide poll conducted by Alabama State University’s Center for Leadership and Public Policy showed 22.7 percent of likely Republican voters supported Santorum, who is scheduled to make campaign appearances Thursday in Huntsville and Mobile.

Former Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney trailed Santorum with 18.7 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich, the former Speaker of the House from neighboring Georgia, with 13.8 percent.

The telephone poll of 470 likely GOP voters showed 29.8 remained undecided and 15 percent saying they intended to support other candidates. The poll did not ask voters whether they supported Ron Paul, the Texas congressman seeking the GOP nomination.

The poll was conducted March 1, prior to the Super Tuesday vote that helped establish Romney and Santorum as leaders in the race for the nomination, with Romney holding a total of 415 delegates and Santorum with 176.

Steve Bridges (1963-2012)

2012-03-08T06:45:00.001-05:00

Hace unos días murió Steve Bridges, el mejor imitador de Presidentes. Sirva esta entrada como tributo.

Por qué Gingrich no debe retirarse

2012-03-08T06:33:00.002-05:00

The Washington Post:

Gingrich, not surprisingly, is having none of the dropout talk — insisting that he would drop out of the race if he thought Santorum could beat Romney and then best Obama. Except, he doesn’t. “I think each of the three candidates has strengths and weaknesses and that this is a very healthy vetting process,” added Gingrich.

Gingrich is right. He shouldn’t drop out of the race. At least not yet. Here’s why.

A quick look at the calendar for the rest of March tells the story. The marquee contests next Tuesday are in the South when Alabama and Mississippi are set to vote. (Hawaii also votes that day.) Louisiana holds it caucuses on March 24.

Gingrich has already made clear today that he will focus all of his time and resources over the next few weeks in the South, skipping the Kansas caucuses — set for this Saturday — in the process. “Everything between Spartanburg all the way to Texas, those all need to go for Gingrich,” said campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond.

If Gingrich can win in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana — and, to be clear, that’s a big “if” — he will have stockpiled enough delegates in the most reliably Republican region in the country to give himself a bit of bargaining power with the eventual nominee.

So, let’s think about this from Gingrich’s perspective for a minute. If he drops out now, he is playing kingmaker to Santorum who, according to the hard facts of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s delegate advantage, is unlikely to wind up as the nominee.

If he holds out and can score wins in the deep South over the next three weeks — not entirely out of the question — then Gingrich is in a position to cut a deal with Romney who will be looking for ways to consolidate support and close out the nomination by then.

And, under the latter scenario, there is an outside chance that Gingrich re-emerges (again) as the conservative alternative to Romney. It’s not likely to happen but given the unpredictability of the Republican presidential race to date, no one should feel good about making hard and fast predictions about where this thing is headed.

Another few weeks in the race has the possibility to do Gingrich a world of good when it comes to his bargaining power when he ultimately decides to bow out. He’s smart to stay in.

Karen Santorum habla de su vida con Rick

2012-03-08T06:27:00.000-05:00

En la CBS.

Santorum en Lenexa, Kansas

2012-03-08T06:11:00.000-05:00

Gingrich en Pell City, Alabama

2012-03-08T06:07:00.001-05:00

Gingrich en Montgomery, Alabama

2012-03-07T16:47:00.000-05:00

Memorándum de Team Romney: insalvable ventaja de Romney

2012-03-07T11:50:00.004-05:00

Memorándum de Rich Beeson, director político de Team Romney:

Super Tuesday voting significantly increased Governor Romney’s delegate lead and makes it increasingly difficult for any of his opponents to catch him. To date, Governor Romney has won more than 50% of all delegates awarded and now holds nearly 40% of the 1,144 delegates needed to win the nomination.

Yesterday’s six wins come on top of five consecutive wins leading up to Super Tuesday. Governor Romney now has more than twice as many delegates as Senator Santorum and four times more than Speaker Gingrich. He has won twice as many states as Senator Santorum and seven times more than Speaker Gingrich. Governor Romney won 60% of Super Tuesday states. By contrast, in 2008 John McCain won only 41% (9 of 21) of the Super Tuesday states.

Neither opponent succeeded in closing his delegate deficit, and the calendar ahead offers them dwindling opportunities to close the gap. Looking at the weeks ahead, the remaining 34 contests have turned into a steep uphill climb for Governor Romney’s opponents due to his 245-delegate lead and the rules for allocating delegates. Here is a look at the situation they face:

There is only one Super Tuesday. Super Tuesday (and its 437 delegates) was a one-time opportunity for Governor Romney’s opponents to diminish his delegate lead and claim any kind of “comeback.” They failed yesterday, and the calendar now only offers incremental opportunities to make headway.

Few large delegate prizes remain. Only two remaining dates offer more than 200 delegates each: April 24 offers 231 delegates, and June 5 offers 299 delegates. Neither provides significant pick-up opportunities for Senator Santorum or Speaker Gingrich. For example, on April 24, more than 40% of New York’s 92 bound delegates will be allocated proportionally, and the remainder will be allocated on a winner-take-all basis to the first-place finisher in each of New York’s congressional districts. Delaware (17 delegates) is the only state on April 24 to award its delegates on a statewide winner-take-all basis. Among the June 5 contests, only New Jersey (50 delegates) awards its delegates on a statewide winner-take-all basis.

The allocation rules prevent large delegate gains. Only four of the remaining 34 contests award their delegates on a statewide winner-take-all basis. The four statewide winner-take-all states (Utah, New Jersey, D.C. and Delaware) are unlikely to offer Senator Santorum or Speaker Gingrich victories. In fact, Santorum isn’t even eligible for any of D.C.’s delegates because he failed to qualify for the ballot there. Even if Senator Santorum or Speaker Gingrich win one of the 30 remaining states, Governor Romney is still likely to finish second, thus taking a considerable portion of the delegates.

Primaries begin to dominate the calendar. Before Super Tuesday, nearly half of all contests were caucuses, but now only 7 of the remaining 34 contests are caucuses. These contests require a national organization that Governor Romney’s opponents simply don’t have.

Super Tuesday dramatically reduced the likelihood that any of Governor Romney’s opponents can obtain the Republican nomination. As Governor Romney’s opponents attempt to ignore the basic principles of math, the only person’s odds of winning they are increasing are President Obama’s.

Romney en Squawk Box (CNBC)

2012-03-07T11:48:00.000-05:00

¿Por qué Romney no despega?

2012-03-07T10:06:00.000-05:00

First Read:

*** Why is Romney unable to pull away? The answer to that question continues to come down to ideology. According to the exit polls in Ohio, Santorum easily won among very conservatives (48%-30%) and overall conservatives (41%-35%), while Romney won the other ideological subgroups (somewhat conservatives, moderates/liberals). Santorum won Tea Party supporters (39%-36%), while Romney won Tea Party detractors (45%-30%). And Santorum ran up the score with evangelicals (47%-30%). Given that kind of very conservative resistance we’ve seen in other contests -- Iowa, South Carolina, Michigan, and Ohio -- it’s a tribute to Romney that he remains on track to winning the GOP presidential nomination. But it also explains why he’s unable to pull away from his under-funded and less-organized opposition.

Pueden impedirle ganar

2012-03-07T09:32:00.004-05:00

The Daily Beast:

It’s far from over. Despite claiming six state wins last night and upping his delegate count to 404, Mitt Romney still does not have a lock on the nomination—or even a clear path to claiming it if his opponents don’t leave the field.

Consider this: If Mitt wins every remaining all-or-nothing state but one, and half of the remaining proportional delegates, he would likely still fall short of the magic nomination number of 1,144—which would force him to rely on unpledged delegates, the Republican version of the infamous Democratic superdelegates in 2008, to claim his party’s mantle.

Even if Mitt somehow won every delegate in every coming contest, he still wouldn’t clinch the nomination until Oregon’s primary on May 15.

And if Romney only musters 40% of the proportional delegates going forward—equivalent to his share of the popular vote total to date—it would mean the first Republican race undecided when the convention opened in a generation.

In a press briefing later today, the Romney camp is expected to argue that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have no chance of claiming the nomination, comparing their uphill climb to the extended delegate fight between Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008. This is true, but it purposefully misses the point. Santorum, Gingrich and Paul individually have no real path to winning the delegate fight—but collectively they are positioned to deny the nomination to Romney and kick the contest to the convention in Tampa, where all delegates are released after the first ballot.

(...) On Saturday, 40 delegates in socially conservative Kansas are up for grabs. That’s followed next Tuesday by joint primaries in Alabama and Mississippi where nearly 90 combined delegates are at stake. Romney—who has never done well in the deep South, losing in Tennessee last night by nearly ten points—seems unlikely to win any of these states.

After those states, there are successive showdowns in Missouri, where Santorum won a beauty contest primary by more than 20 points last month as well as Illinois and Louisiana. Finally, the month ends with Potomac Primaries of Maryland and DC along with Wisconsin’s nomination contest on April 3. The big delegate prizes of New York, California and Texas loom ahead, with the final primary – fortuitously for Romney, Utah – scheduled for late June.

(...) The delegate math shows that the earliest this contest could be mathematically over is May—and the latest, Utah in late June or even August in Tampa.

Unless Santorum, Gingrich or Paul can be prematurely pressured out, this contest will go on. Momentum drives the story line, but math drives the delegate count, and that may be all that matters in this year’s proportional fight for the Republican nomination.

Obama pierde 15 condados y 1 delegado en Oklahoma

2012-03-07T09:01:00.003-05:00

El héroe que ha logrado esta hazaña se llama Randall Terry, un activista anti-aborto de 53 años, arrestado por la policía más de 40 veces por alteración del orden público. Tendrá un delegado en Charlotte.

Associated Press:

President Barack Obama collected the most votes in the Oklahoma Democratic primary, but lost in 15 counties.

With 98 percent of precincts reporting Tuesday, Obama won 57 percent of the vote. Four other candidates combined for 43 percent of the vote, including anti-abortion activist and Operation Rescue founder Randall Terry who received 18 percent of the vote.

According to Democratic Party rules, Terry is eligible for a delegate since he won more than 15 percent of the statewide vote. Terry beat Obama in 12 counties, mostly in western Oklahoma. Terry acknowledges he can't win the presidency but says he hopes to cause Obama's defeat in the fall.

Oklahoma earned the nickname "reddest of the red" states after Obama's failed to win a single county in the 2008 presidential race.

Recuento de delegados

2012-03-07T06:54:00.009-05:00

Según Associated Press, Romney ganó anoche por lo menos 212 de los 437 delegados que se repartían; Santorum ganó por lo menos 84; Gingrich por lo menos 72; y Paul por lo menos 22. Quedarían todavía 47 por adjudicar, incluyendo superdelegados.

Georgia: Gingrich 46 delegados, Romney 13 delegados, Santorum 2 delegados.
Ohio: Romney 35 delegados, Santorum 21 delegados.
Tennessee: Santorum 25 delegados, Romney 10 delegados, Gingrich 8 delegados.
Oklahoma: Santorum 14 delegados, Romney 13 delegados, Gingrich 13 delegados, Paul 1 delegado.
Virginia: Romney 43 delegados, Paul 3 delegados.
Massachusetts: Romney 41 delegados.
Vermont: Romney 9 delegados, Santorum 4 delegados, Paul 4 delegados.
Idaho: Romney 32 delegados.
Dakota del Norte: Santorum 11 delegados, Paul 8 delegados, Romney 7 delegados, Gingrich 2 delegados.
Alaska: Romney 8 delegados, Santorum 7 delegados, Paul 6 delegados, Gingrich 2 delegados.

El número total de delegados de cada candidato quedaría así:

* Se necesitan 1,144 delegados para ganar la nominación.

Por estados ganados,

Romney (14 estados): New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, Maine, Arizona, Michigan, Washington, Wyoming, Virginia, Vermont, Massachusetts, Idaho, Ohio y Alaska.

Santorum (7 estados): Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri (sólo primaria), Colorado, Tennessee, Oklahoma y Dakota del Norte.

Gingrich (2 estados): Carolina del Sur y Georgia.

Resultados del SuperMartes

2012-03-07T06:28:00.002-05:00

Ohio

Romney 453,927 votos 38.0%
Santorum 441,908 votos 37.0%
Gingrich 174,606 votos 14.6%
Paul 110,633 votos 9.3%
Otros 13,799 votos 1.2%

Georgia

Gingrich 417,364 votos 47.4%
Romney 225,926 votos 25.7%
Santorum 172,votos 19.6%
Paul 57,125 votos 6.5%
Otros 6,872 votos 0.8%

Tennessee

Santorum 204,978 votos 37.3%
Romney 153,889 votos 28.0%
Gingrich 132,142 votos 24.0%
Paul 49,782 votos 9.0%
Otros 9,378 votos 1.7%

Oklahoma

Santorum 96,759 votos 33.8%
Romney 80,291 votos 28.0%
Gingrich 78,686 votos 27.5%
Paul 27,572 votos 9.6%
Otros 2,990 votos 1.0%

Virginia

Romney 158,050 votos 59.5%
Paul 107,470 votos 40.5%

Massachusetts

Romney 260,509 votos 72.1%
Santorum 43,614 votos 12.1%
Paul 34,575 votos 9.6%
Gingrich 16,756 votos 4.6%
Otros 5,927 votos 1.6%

Vermont

Romney 22,533 votos 39.8%
Paul 14,407 votos 25.4%
Santorum 13,401 votos 23.7%
Gingrich 4,608 votos 8.1%
Otros 1,665 votos 2.9%

Idaho

Romney 27,514 votos 61.6%
Santorum 8,115 votos 18.2%
Paul 8,086 votos 18.1%
Gingrich 940 votos 2.1%
Otros 17 votos 0%

Dakota del Norte

Santorum 4,510 votos 39.7%
Paul 3,186 votos 28.1%
Romney 2,691 votos 23.7%
Gingrich 962 votos 8.5%

Alaska

Romney 4,225 votos 32.6%
Santorum 3,762 votos 29.0%
Paul 3,105 votos 24.0%
Gingrich 1,834 votos 14.2%
Otros 32 votos 0.2%

Romney: paso a paso, puerta a puerta, hasta la victoria

2012-03-07T06:27:00.000-05:00

Santorum: una gran noche

2012-03-07T06:25:00.000-05:00

Gingrich: hemos sobrevivido a todos los esfuerzos para pararnos

2012-03-07T06:24:00.000-05:00

Ron Paul: la causa de la libertad va sobre ruedas

2012-03-07T06:20:00.000-05:00

SuperMartes: Gingrich gana GA; Romney gana VA, VT, MA, ID, OH y AK; Santorum gana TN, OK y ND

2012-03-06T14:58:00.046-05:00

TV: CNN / CNN Live / C-SPAN.

Resultados de Georgia: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

Resultados de Ohio: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

Resultados de Tennessee: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

Resultados de Oklahoma: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

Resultados de Virginia: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

Resultados de Massachusetts: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

Resultados de Vermont: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

Resultados de Idaho: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

Resultados de Dakota del Norte: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

Resultados de Alaska: CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Actualización 11:45 pm -

CNN se atreve a pronosticar que ROMNEY GANA OHIO porque "todo indica que mantendrá su actual ventaja." La ventaja es de menos de 6,000 votos (425,149 votos de Romney frente a 419,330 votos de Santorum) con un 91% escrutado.

Otros medios son más prudentes.

Actualización 11:34 pm -

IDAHO VA PARA ROMNEY, según NBC.

Por estados ganados, la cosa queda de la siguiente manera.

Romney: Virginia, Vermont, Massachusetts y Idaho.
Santorum: Tennessee, Oklahoma y Dakota del Norte.
Gingrich: Georgia.

Ohio está "too close to call": con el 91% escrutado, Romney gana por entre 5,000 y 6,000 votos (0.4%). El problema de Santorum son las ciudades. Cleveland y Cincinnati le van a privar de la victoria, como lo hicieron Detroit y Grand Rapids la semana pasada.

Y Alaska sigue pendiente.

Actualización 11:15 pm -

Parece que Romney terminará ganando el voto popular en Ohio. Después de ir por detrás toda la noche, con el 87% escrutado, se ha colocado en cabeza con 5,500 votos de ventaja.

La decepción de la noche para Santorum es Georgia. Con el 95% escrutado, no alcanza el 20% necesario para entrar en el reparto de delegados (se queda en el 19.6% de momento).

Y la gran decepción para Romney es Tennessee. Sólo ha ganado un condado, Davidson (Nashville), y por un 2%. Esperaban hacerlo mucho mejor. Confirma sus problemas en el Sur Profundo.

Actualización 10:47 pm -

85% escrutado en Ohio y Romney a 2,000 votos de alcanzar a Santorum...

Según la ley, si el margen en Ohio termina siendo inferior al 0.25%, habría recuento automático.

Actualización 10:39 pm -

Con el 81% escrutado en Ohio, Romney se acerca a Santorum. La ventaja del ex Senador es ahora de sólo 6,000 votos.

En Team Romney siguen confiando que el condado de Cuyahoga (con la mitad de sus votos sin contabilizar) les termine dando la victoria.

Actualización 10:25 pm -

La CNN declara a SANTORUM GANADOR DEL CAUCUS DE DAKOTA DEL NORTE.

En Ohio, con el 70% escrutado, Santorum ha ampliado ligeramente su ventaja sobre Romney a 15,000 votos.

Actualización 10:22 pm -

En Idaho, territorio mormón, parece que no habrá sorpresas. Con el 9% escrutado: Romney 76%, Paul 10%.

La última frontera, Alaska, es la última esperanza del pobre Ron Paul.

Actualización 10:11 pm -

Santorum va encaminado a dar la sorpresa en Dakota del Norte. Con el 51% escrutado ya, gana por 12 puntos (39%-27%) a Paul. Romney tercero con el 25%.

Actualización 10:03 pm -

Con el 59% escrutado en Ohio: Santorum 38%, Romney 36%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 9%. Unos 10,000 votos de ventaja de Santorum sobre Romney (254,000 frente a 244,000).

En Team Romney repiten que en el condado de Cuyahoga (Cleveland), el mejor condado de Romney, es donde más votos faltan por contar.

Pero en el NYT calculan que Santorum es ahora mismo el favorito para ganar por un pelo el estado, si se mantienen los niveles de participación de hace cuatro años:

If you weight the 2012 margins between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney as reported so far by the 2008 turnout in each county, it suggests that Mr. Santorum's margin might narrow slightly, but that he is perhaps the slight favorite to hold on; that method would have him winning statewide by 1.2 percentage points.

Obviously that is very close and there are some problems with this method. A handful of small Ohio counties haven't reported results at all, for instance, and the assumption that turnout will be proportional to 2008 is not necessarily correct. But it looks like Mr. Santorum has the slightest of edges here.

Actualización 9:48 pm -

Rick Santorum está superando las expectativas en los caucuses de Dakota del Norte sin apenas organización. Con el 14% escrutado: Santorum 40%, Romney 26%, Paul 25%.

Actualización 9:40 pm -

Santorum ya ha hablado y Romney acaba de salir. Lo de Ohio tiene toda la pinta de ir para largo, y no quieren esperar a hablar cuando la gente se haya ido a dormir en la Costa Este, como les ocurrió el día del Caucus de Iowa. Se han coordinado para hablar los dos en prime-time.

Con el 33% escrutado en Ohio: Santorum 38.9%, Romney 35.7%. Nervios en Team Romney aunque repiten que faltan por contar votos en sus mejores condados.

Actualización 9:27 pm -

Con el 97% escrutado en Virginia: Romney 59%, Paul 41%.

Es un resultado sorprendente que no está claro si se debe a la baja participación o a la resistencia anti-romney. El caso es que el último sondeo anterior a la primaria le daba a Romney el 69% y a Paul sólo el 24%.

En delegados, que al final es lo que cuenta, Romney se llevará por lo menos 43 delegados, y Paul parece que se llevará sólo 3.

Actualización 9:10 pm -

CNN y NBC dicen que SANTORUM HA GANADO OKLAHOMA. Con el 30% escrutado, gana por 7 puntos (34% frente a 27% de Gingrich y 27% de Romney). Contra lo esperado, Oklahoma parece más igualado que Tennessee.

Actualización 9:00 pm -

El recuento va lentísimo en Ohio. Hace hora y media que han cerrado las urnas y todavía vamos al 11% del voto escrutado con una igualdad máxima: Santorum 38%, Romney 37.2%.

Podría ser la primaria de Ohio más igualada de la historia. Hasta ahora lo era la victoria por 2 puntos (42%-40%) de Gary Hart sobre Walter Mondale en la primaria demócrata de 1984.

Actualización 8:40 pm -

NBC proyecta la VICTORIA DE SANTORUM EN TENNESSEE. ABC le sigue y hace lo mismo. Era una victoria obligada para Santorum, pero es buena señal que se haya producido temprano, 40 minutos después del cierre de las urnas y con apenas un 1% del voto escrutado. Puede que sea mayor de lo que indicaban las últimas encuestas.

Romney sigue sin ganar en el Sur Profundo.

Actualización 8:33 pm -

Con el 84% escrutado en Virginia, Ron Paul se mantiene por encima del 40% y Romney por debajo del 60%. Es el mejor resultado de Paul hasta ahora. Lástima para él que el sistema de reparto de delegados en Virginia no sea proporcional a nivel estatal. Tendrá que ganar algún distrito electoral si quiere llevarse algún delegado.

Actualización 8:25 pm -

Sondeos a pie de urna de CNN en Ohio y Tennessee.

Ohio muy igualado.

Tennessee pinta bien para Santorum. Habría ganado entre hombres y mujeres por 9 y 5 puntos, respectivamente. Habría ganado claramente entre los "muy conservadores" (47%-19%) que constituyen el 41% del electorado. Y habría perdido por poco (35%-31%) entre los "algo conservadores" que serían el 32% del electorado.

Actualización 8:05 pm -

Associated Press, NBC y ABC declaran que ROMNEY HA GANADO MASSACHUSETTS, el estado del que fue Gobernador. Lo esperado. Suena Sweet Caroline en su cuartel general, como en el SuperMartes de hace cuatro años en el cuartel general de Hillary.

ABC dice también que Santorum "lidera" en Oklahoma, aunque no se atreve todavía a declararlo ganador.

Actualización 7:55 pm -

En 5 minutos cierran las urnas en Massachusetts, Oklahoma y Tennessee. Lo que más nos interesa es Tennessee...

Actualización 7:50 pm -

Paul se mantiene por encima del 40% en Virginia con el 33% escrutado.

Los caucus han empezado a las 7:30 en Dakota del Norte. Paul está dando su speech en un recinto de Fargo.

Con el 1% escrutado en Ohio: Romney 38%, Santorum 37%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 7%.

Sondeo a pie de urna del New York Times en Ohio:

Con estos números ganaría Romney. Destaca su enorme ventaja (de 21 puntos) entre los jubilados, que suele ser un colectivo electoralmente muy activo por lo que deben ser una porción importante del electorado en la primaria (27%).

Actualización 7:37 pm -

ABC se atreve a declarar a ROMNEY GANADOR DE LA PRIMARIA DE VERMONT.

De momento, con el 4% escrutado en Vermont: Romney 35%, Santorum 27%, Paul 27%, Gingrich 8%.

Actualización 7:30 pm -

Cierran las urnas en Ohio.

Los rumores hablan de una victoria de Romney por 3 puntitos.

Actualización 7:20 pm -

NBC y ABC dicen que ROMNEY HA GANADO LA PRIMARIA DE VIRGINIA. Lo esperado. Lo raro era que no lo confirmasen a las 7 en punto.

Con el 4% escrutado en Virginia: Romney 60%, Paul 40%. De momento, Paul por encima de las expectativas.

Actualización 7:12 pm -

Sondeo a pie de urna de la CNN en Georgia: Gingrich 45%, Romney 26%, Santorum 20% , Paul 8%. Santorum está en el límite del 20% que cualifica a un candidato para aspirar a ganar algún delegado. Podría quedarse con las manos vacías, salvo que a nivel de distritos consiguiera algo. Romney puede pescar delegados tanto a nivel estatal como a nivel de distritos en el área metropolitana de Atlanta si, como parece, Gingrich no sobrepasa el 50%.

Actualización 7:04 pm -

Sin esperar resultados oficiales, Associated Press y NBC News, entre otros, declaran que GINGRICH HA GANADO LA PRIMARIA DE GEORGIA. Eso indica que los sondeos a pie de urna señalan una victoria contundente del ex Speaker en su estado.

De momento no se tiran a la piscina en Vermont y Virginia.

Actualización 7:00 pm -

Pensábamos que la primera victoria de Ron Paul podía llegar en Maine pero no llegó, pensábamos que podía llegar en Washington pero no llegó. ¿Llegará hoy? El candidato dice que tiene la vista puesta en Alaska, Idaho y Dakota del Norte.

Actualización 6:55 pm -

Dentro de 5 minutos cierran las urnas en Vermont, Georgia y Virginia.

En Virginia, como se esperaba, ha habido una participación anémica debido a la presencia de sólo dos candidatos (Romney y Paul) en las papeletas. El Richmond Times Dispatch informaba que, en el ecuador de la jornada electoral, en un colegio del sur de Richmond, se habían presentado 75 de 3,000 posibles votantes.

Actualización 6:27 pm -

Más de un tercio de los votantes en Ohio son católicos, según informaciones preliminares de sondeos a pie de urna. En 2008, los católicos fueron sólo un 26%.

Santorum es católico pero depende más del voto evangélico. Hasta ahora Romney ha sido el ganador del voto católico en todos los estados.

Mejor noticia para Santorum puede ser que el 63% de los votantes se declaran conservadores (un 31% muy conservadores y un 32% algo conservadores). Es un electorado más conservador que el de Michigan. Pero son más los conservadores fiscales que los conservadores sociales.

En Tennessee, el tema de conversación está siendo la alta participación que se está registrando en los condados más afines a Romney (suburbios de Nashville).

Actualización 6:15 pm -

Los Romney han vuelto a casa por unas horas. Han votado en Belmont, el suburbio de Boston donde viven.

Actualización 5:00 pm -

Romney y su Super PAC han gastado 8.4 millones en los estados del SuperMartes. Le siguen Gingrich y su Super PAC con 3.3 millones. Santorum y su Super PAC han gastado 1.6 millones. Ron Paul sólo 102,000 dólares... ¿qué hace este hombre con todo lo que recauda?

Casi la mitad de lo gastado por Romney y su Super PAC (4 millones) ha sido en Ohio. Santorum y su Super PAC han gastado cuatro veces menos en Ohio, 900,000 dólares.

La mayor inversión del Super PAC de Gingrich ha sido en Georgia: al ex Speaker le va a costar 1.3 millones ganar su propio estado. El Super PAC de Romney ha gastado 2 millones en Georgia.

En Tennessee, el Super PAC de Romney se ha dejado 1,4 millones, el Super PAC de Gingrich 600,000 dólares, y Santorum sólo 200,000 dólares.

En Oklahoma, Gingrich ha sido quien más ha gastado, seguido de Romney.

Y en Vermont, Ron Paul se ha gastado 55,000 dólares, que es más de la mitad de todo el dinero que ha invertido en el SuperMartes. Aunque Idaho y Dakota del Norte sean mercados más baratos, donde ha podido comprar más espacios publicitarios por menos dinero, no deja de ser curioso que haya puesto tanto en Vermont.

Actualización 3:10 pm -

Un homenaje romántico a Georgia, una tierra que un día fue para el hombre blanco un mundo idílico de magnolias y abedules.

Escribió Margaret Mitchell: "Hubo una tierra de caballeros y campos de algodón llamada Viejo Sur. Aquí en este precioso mundo, la galantería hizo su última reverencia. Aquí se vio por última vez a los caballeros y a sus bellas damas, al amo y al esclavo. Búsquenlos en los libros, porque ahora no son sino el recuerdo de un sueño, una civilización que el viento se llevó."

Gerald O'Hara: "¿Pretendes decirme Katia Escarlata O’Hara que la tierra no significa nada para ti? La tierra es lo único que vale la pena de trabajar, de luchar, y hasta de morir por ella, porque es la única cosa que perdura."

Escarlata O'Hara: "Ay papa, hablas como un irlandés."

Gerald O'Hara: "Estoy muy orgulloso de ser irlandés, y no se le olvide señorita que usted también es medio irlandesa; y para cualquiera que tenga una gota de sangre irlandesa, la tierra donde vive es como si fuera su madre. Pero tú eres todavía una chiquilla, también llegarás a sentir este amor por la tierra, siendo irlandesa no hay modo de librarse de él."

Actualización 3 pm -

Cada candidato pasará la noche electoral en un estado diferente:

Mitt Romney en Boston, Massachusetts.

Rick Santorum en Steubenville, Ohio.

Newt Gingrich en Atlanta, Georgia.

Ron Paul en Fargo, Dakota del Norte.

Los Romney en la parte de atrás del avión

2012-03-06T14:56:00.002-05:00

Mitt y Ann Romney han dedicado unos minutos a los chicos de la prensa mientras volaban de Ohio a Massachusetts para votar.

Geografía electoral del SuperMartes

2012-03-06T11:47:00.006-05:00

Chris Stirewalt (Fox News) analiza el mapa del SuperMartes.

Qué es una buena noche

2012-03-06T09:31:00.004-05:00

First Read:

*** What would be a good night for the candidates, delegate-wise: Here’s what the NBC Political Unit would see as a good or better-than-expected night for all the candidates.

For Romney, it would be winning between 200-220 delegates (with 35-plus in OH, 20-plus in GA, 15-plus in TN, and 10-plus in OK)…

For Santorum, it would 115-130 (with 30-plus in OH, 20-plus in GA, 25-plus in TN, and 25-plus in OK)…

For Gingrich, it would be 70-80 delegates (with 20-plus in TN, 35-plus in GA, 10-plus in OK, and any delegate from Ohio).

La presión es para Santorum

2012-03-06T09:28:00.001-05:00

First Read:

*** The pressure’s on Santorum: But make no mistake: The pressure is on Santorum tonight. Romney could lose Ohio and still win the GOP nomination. But if Santorum loses the popular vote in the Buckeye State, it’s hard to see how he’ll be a factor come April or May. And no matter what, Romney is going to win the math race tonight -- by virtue of Santorum and Gingrich not being on the ballot in Virginia, and because he didn’t file a full slate of delegates in some Ohio congressional districts. Chew on this: It is possible that Santorum could win in both Ohio and Tennessee, but Romney could win a majority of tonight’s delegates (213 out of 424). That outcome would create a math problem for Santorum and a perception problem for Romney. And given how this campaign season has gone so far, isn't this the most LIKELY outcome?

Tennessee, el único estado en el punto de mira de tres candidatos

2012-03-06T08:53:00.004-05:00

The Globe and Mail:

While the delegate count is all that really matters, the significance of who wins which states and why will give the candidates and their strategists plenty to pore over on Wednesday morning. And no state may be as interesting to analyze as Tennessee.

Ohio (where Mr. Romney needs another Rust Belt win) and Georgia (where Mr. Gingrich hopes a victory keeps him in the hunt) have captured most of the attention. But Tennessee is home to the only three-way race and whoever wins there can rightly brag about it.

Lo que hay que saber del SuperMartes

2012-03-06T06:55:00.002-05:00

Georgia (primaria abierta)

Horario: 7 am - 7 pm

76 delegados: el ganador del estado se lleva 3 delegados por su victoria. 31 delegados se reparten proporcionalmente entre los candidatos que superen el 20% del voto estatal. Y otros 42 delegados se entregan por distritos electorales; si un candidato supera el 50% en un distrito, se lleva 3 delegados; si no es así, se reparten 2 a 1 entre los dos primeros.

Qué se espera: una victoria del hijo favorito Gingrich. Romney y Santorum compiten por superar el 20% para acumular delegados, y por ganar algún distrito si es posible (sobre todo Romney). Además de eso, está el incentivo de evitar quedar tercero para al final de la noche poder proclamar que se ha quedado primero o segundo en todos los estados.

Ohio (primaria semi-cerrada, sólo republicanos e independientes)

Horario: 6:30 am - 7:30 pm

66 delegados: 48 delegados se reparten entre los ganadores de los diferentes distritos electorales; el ganador de un distrito se lleva todos los delegados que corresponden a ese distrito. Y 15 delegados se reparten proporcionalmente entre los candidatos que superen el 20% estatal. Luego hay 3 "superdelegados" no comprometidos que pueden hacer lo que les da la gana en la convención.

Qué se espera: Se espera un resultado igualado con Santorum y Romney peleando por la victoria. Puede darse el caso de que el ganador de la primaria no sea el que más delegados sume porque es un estado lleno de contrastes, con algunos distritos muy urbanos y otros muy rurales.

El voto republicano de Ohio está en los suburbios de las grandes ciudades: los condados de Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Summitt (Akron) y Stark (Canton), en el noreste; el condado de Franklin (Columbus) en la zona central; y los condados de Hamilton, Butler, Warren y Clermont en el área de Cincinnati, en el suroeste. Luego están las vastas áreas rurales en todo el sur, y también en el Oeste, alrededor de la Interestatal-75 que va desde Dayton hasta Toledo.

Si Romney es más fuerte en los suburbios moderados, y Santorum en los pueblos rurales habitados por protestantes fundamentalistas y católicos conservadores, la clave puede estar en aquellos suburbios que sean más conservadores, y esos son los de Cincinnati.

Tennessee (primaria abierta)

Horario: 7 am - 8 pm

58 delegados: 28 delegados se distribuyen proporcionalmente entre los candidatos que superen el 20% estatal. Otros 27 delegados se entregan por distritos electorales; si un candidato gana dos tercios del voto en un distrito, se lleva 3 delegados; si gana menos de dos tercios, entonces se reparten 2 a 1 entre los dos primeros. Hay 3 superdelegados no comprometidos.

Qué se espera: es una victoria obligada para Santorum si quiere seguir siendo la alternativa a Romney a nivel nacional. En 2008, más de siete de cada diez participantes en la primaria fueron cristianos evangélicos. No parece un electorado propicio para un mormón, pero las últimas encuestas indican que Romney, apoyado por el establishment estatal (el Gobernador Bill Haslam y el Senador Lamar Alexander), puede ganar. Si Santorum pierde en Ohio y Tennessee, quedará noqueado, y es posible que Gingrich termine siendo el último obstáculo para Romney en estas primarias.

Virginia (primaria abierta)

Horario: 6 am - 7 pm

49 delegados: 13 delegados se los llevará el ganador a nivel estatal. Y los otros 33 delegados se repartirán por distritos electorales, con la regla del winner-take-all. Hay 3 superdelegados no comprometidos.

Qué se espera: sólo compiten Romney y Paul porque Santorum y Gingrich no reunieron las firmas exigidas para inscribirse. Se espera una victoria cómoda de Romney, que podría incluso superar el 70% y llevarse casi toda la delegación. El peligro para Romney puede estar en la falta de interés por la primaria, que limitará mucho la participación, y el mayor entusiasmo de los seguidores de Paul.

Oklahoma (primaria cerrada, sólo republicanos)

Horario: 8 am - 8 pm

43 delegados: 25 delegados se reparten proporcionalmente entre los candidatos que superen el 15% del voto estatal, salvo que alguno de ellos supere el 50%, en cuyo caso se lleva los 25 delegados. Otros 15 delegados se reparten por distritos electorales; Oklahoma tiene 5 distritos y cada uno entrega 3 delegados; si un candidato gana más de la mitad del voto en un distrito, se lleva los 3 delegados, y de lo contrario, se reparten proporcionalmente. Hay 3 superdelegados con libertad para apoyar a cualquier candidato.

Qué se espera: Santorum esperaba superar el 50% para llevarse todos los delegados, pero los sondeos lo colocan en los 30s. Su victoria no debería correr peligro porque ha sido el único candidato que ha visitado el estado en la recta final de la campaña. Para Romney no tiene valor estratégico, y Gingrich ha enviado a cuatro representantes a hacer campaña en su nombre, pensando más en superar el mínimo exigido para sumar delegados.

Massachusetts (primaria semi-cerrada, sólo republicanos e independientes)

Horario: 7 am - 8 pm

41 delegados: 38 delegados se reparten entre los candidatos que superen el 15% del voto estatal. Los otros 3 son superdelegados que están apoyando a Romney.

Qué se espera: victoria aplastante del hijo favorito Romney. La única duda en Massachusetts está en si alguno de sus rivales superará el 15% necesario para arañar algún delegado.

Vermont (primaria abierta)

Horario: 7 am - 7 pm

17 delegados: 14 delegados se reparten proporcionalmente entre los candidatos que superen el 20% del voto estatal. Luego hay 3 superdelegados que están obligados a apoyar al candidato que gane la primaria.

Qué se espera: Romney es el favorito para ganar todos los estados de Nueva Inglaterra, también Vermont. Aunque el exceso de confianza puede ser peligroso en un estado tan pequeño. Potenciales votantes de Romney pueden no ver la necesidad de ir a votar, si creen que ya está ganado. Además, la primaria es abierta y algunos sitios web liberales como Daily Kos están pidiendo a los demócratas que voten por Santorum.

Idaho (caucus)

Horario: 9 pm - 10 pm

32 delegados: en Idaho se aplica la regla de la viabilidad para adjudicar delegados. Como suelen hacer los demócratas en Iowa, hay varias votaciones, y los candidatos se van eliminando. Los delegados se reparten por condados, y si un candidato supera el 50% de los delegados por condados, se lleva los 32 delegados del estado a la covnención nacional. Un lío.

Qué se espera: Idaho es tierra de vascos (3% de la población), pero es sobre todo tierra de mormones (casi el 30% de la población). Todo lo que no sea una victoria fácil de Romney, sería una enorme sorpresa. Ron Paul cree tener posibilidades.

Dakota del Norte (caucus)

Horario: 7:30 pm - 10 pm

28 delegados: a diferencia de lo que pasa en la mayoría de caucuses, en Dakota del Norte el voto de preferencia presidencial sí es vinculante y se utiliza como referencia para el reparto proporcional de todos sus delegados.

Qué se espera: Ron Paul ha hecho más campaña que nadie, ha convocado las mayores multitudes, y ha recibido más donaciones que nadie en Dakota del Norte. Tiene planeado visitar personalmente los caucuses y hacer de Fargo su cuartel general para esta noche. Habrá sólo unos 50 lugares de reunión de votantes a lo largo del estado, así que no deberían ser difíciles de cubrir para una campaña bien organizada como la de Paul.

Alaska (caucus)

Horario: 8 pm - 12 am

27 delegados: al igual que en Dakota del Norte, en Alaska el voto de preferencia presidencial es vinculante. 24 delegados se reparten proporcionalmente y los otros 3 son superdelegados no comprometidos.

Qué se espera: Romney envió a uno de sus hijos a hacer campaña en Alaska, Santorum grabó mensajes para las radios locales, y Gingrich hizo un tele-town hall meeting, pero sólo Ron Paul se molestó en visitar el estado. El Alaska Dispatch predijo hace días una victoria de Ron Paul. Romney cuenta con el apoyo del establishment republicano estatal.

Romney en Youngstown, Ohio

2012-03-06T06:27:00.000-05:00

Ron Paul en Idaho Falls, Idaho

2012-03-06T06:26:00.000-05:00

Santorum en Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio

2012-03-06T06:23:00.002-05:00

Gingrich en Kingsport, Tennessee

2012-03-06T06:23:00.001-05:00

Romney en The Kudlow Report (CNBC)

2012-03-06T06:16:00.000-05:00

Gingrich en Hannity (Fox News)

2012-03-06T06:14:00.000-05:00

Historia del SuperMartes

2012-03-05T17:41:00.001-05:00

Domenico Montanaro (NBC) repasa la historia del SuperMartes.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

CNN: empate en OH; Gingrich, cerca del 50% en GA

2012-03-05T17:03:00.004-05:00

CNN:

Georgia

Gingrich 47%
Romney 24%
Santorum 15%
Paul 9%

Ohio

Romney 32%
Santorum 32%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 11%

Suffolk: Santorum 37%, Romney 33% en Ohio

2012-03-05T14:47:00.002-05:00

Suffolk University:

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (37 percent) leads former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (33 percent) by a narrow margin, according to a Suffolk University poll of likely Republican Primary voters in Ohio. Newt Gingrich (16 percent) was a distant third, and Ron Paul struggled (8 percent) in single digits with 6 percent undecided. The race is too close to call, as the top two candidates are within the statistical margin of error.

“The magic number in Ohio tomorrow night is thirty-nine,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “The candidate who gets to thirty-nine percent will win the state in what could be a rather late night of election returns. It’s now down to which candidate gets his supporters out to the polls.”

Santorum led 44 percent to Romney’s 27 percent among those who already have cast ballots, but among those who have yet to vote, Santorum’s margin was only 3 points, 36 percent to 33 percent.

Thirty-three percent of likely voters said that Santorum hews closer to their political beliefs than the other three GOP candidates. Gingrich was seen as having similar beliefs to their own by 22 percent; Romney by 19 percent; and Ron Paul by 10 percent.

On the flip side, Romney was seen as the candidate who has the best chance of defeating President Barack Obama by 44 percent of respondents, while 18 percent chose Santorum; 15 percent, Gingrich; and 2 percent, Ron Paul.

Rasmussen: empate en Ohio

2012-03-05T14:44:00.000-05:00

Rasmussen:

Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney are tied in Ohio with the Super Tuesday primary vote just 24 hours away. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Ohio shows Santorum earning 32% support to Romney’s 31%. The survey was taken Sunday night. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul run far behind, each with 13% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided.

Gingrich quiere más debates

2012-03-05T11:59:00.003-05:00

En Fox & Friends, el Speaker Gingrich ha hablado de la subida del precio de la gasolina, principal preocupación del votante en las últimas semanas, ha vuelto a atizar a los medios de élite, y ha revelado que mañana por la noche desafiará a sus rivales a un debate para la semana que viene en Mississippi o Alabama. "No creo que Romney símplemente pueda esconderse detrás de millones de dólares en anuncios pagados."

Santorum: resistimos

2012-03-05T11:47:00.003-05:00

El Senador Santorum ha sonado a perdedor esta mañana en Fox & Friends:

"Están gastando seis veces más que nosotros en cada estado. Es destacable que lo estemos haciendo tan bien. Nos están golpeando con llamadas automáticas, publicidad por correo y anuncios de televisión, y estamos resistiendo porque tenemos un mensaje y el Gobernador Romney no lo tiene... Y tenemos muy buenas sensaciones sobre Tennessee y Oklahoma... Estamos resistiendo y haciéndolo muy bien."

¿Qué hay en juego mañana?

2012-03-05T10:08:00.003-05:00

Chris Cillizza (The Washington Post) utiliza gráficos para explicar el SuperMartes y su impacto en la carrera por la nominación republicana.

We Ask America: triple empate en Tennessee

2012-03-05T09:52:00.005-05:00

We Ask America:

It appears that a late surge in Tennessee by Mitt Romney has closed the early lead that Rick Santorum had just days ago.

Does the plot of this movie sound familiar to you?

While not enough people pay attention to the delegate-heavy Volunteer State (we plead guilty), this beautiful, politically sophisticated area of the nation is important in the election juggernaut. And Romney’s machine appears to have clawed the former Massachusetts governor back into the game after being reportedly down by double digits.

Here are our findings from Sunday’s calls:

Date: 3/4//2012 - Participants: 1,023 Likely GOP voters - Margin of Error: ± 3.06%

Romney 30%
Santorum 29%
Gingrich 29%
Paul 12%

Mientras Santorum anda liado en Ohio, Gingrich estará hoy todo el día en Tennessee. Puede convencer a los últimos indecisos y dar la sorpresa, o fraccionar en partes iguales el voto anti-Romney y permitir al ex Gobernador de Massachusetts ganar el estado con el 30% del voto. Ojo.

Eventos de campaña en directo

2012-03-05T08:18:00.004-05:00

Romney y Santorum pasarán esta víspera de SuperMartes en Ohio. Gingrich estará en Tennessee. Y Ron Paul en Idaho.

CNN Live emitirá en vivo los siguientes eventos:

08:25 AM America’s Choice 2012: Romney meet and greet
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney meets with potential primary voters in Canton, Ohio.

09:30 AM America’s Choice 2012: Santorum rally
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum holds a campaign rally for supporters in Miamisburg, Ohio.

12:05 PM America’s Choice 2012: Romney town hall
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney holds a town hall-style meeting in Youngstown, Ohio.

01:00 PM America’s Choice 2012: Gingrich in Tennessee
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich participates in a Republican women’s luncheon in Kingsport, Tennessee.

02:00 PM America’s Choice 2012: Santorum in Ohio
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum participates in a campaign rally in Westerville, Ohio.

04:00 PM America’s Choice 2012: Gingrich rally
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks at a campaign rally in Alcoa, Tennessee.

06:30 PM America’s Choice 2012: Romney in Ohio
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney participates in a town hall-style meeting in Zanesville, Ohio.

06:30 PM America’s Choice 2012: Santorum campaigns
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum speaks to supporters at a campaign rally in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio.

07:00 PM America’s Choice 2012: Gingrich rallies supporters
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks at a campaign event in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

Quinnipiac: Romney 34%, Santorum 31% en Ohio

2012-03-05T08:02:00.002-05:00

Quinnipiac University:

The Ohio Republican presidential primary remains too close to call, but former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has the momentum, and 34 percent of likely Republican primary voters, to former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum's 31 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is a 10-point shift from a February 27 Ohio survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Santorum with a 36 - 29 percent lead.

In this latest survey, men split with 33 percent for Santorum and 31 percent for Romney. Women back Romney 38 - 29 percent. Self-described conservatives, a strong base of Santorum support in earlier surveys, are split with 35 percent for Santorum and 33 percent for Romney.

"To borrow from the book of Berra, Yogi that is: It's deja vu all over again for Gov. Mitt Romney. Just as he did in Florida and Michigan, Romney has erased a sizable deficit a week before the primary to grab the momentum in the final 24 hours," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling institute. "A week ago, Quinnipiac had Sen. Santorum ahead by seven points, now it's Romney by three - a 10-point swing in seven days. The margin makes the Ohio race too close to call, but Romney is the one with the wind at his back."

Santorum prueba las costillas ahumadas al nogal de Corky's BBQ

2012-03-05T07:07:00.003-05:00

Una parada obligada en Memphis, Tennessee.

Encuestas finales de PPP en Ohio, Georgia y Tennessee

2012-03-05T06:52:00.003-05:00

Public Policy Polling:

The news is good for Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich and bad for Rick Santorum in PPP's final polls of the three biggest Super Tuesday states.

In Ohio, Romney leads with 37% to 36% for Santorum, 15% for Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul.

In Tennessee, Santorum leads with 34% to 29% for Romney, 27% for Gingrich, and 8% for Paul.

In Georgia, Gingrich leads with 47% to 24% for Romney, 19% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.

A week ago Santorum had a huge lead in Tennessee, a decent sized one in Ohio, and seemed like he had a good chance for second in Georgia. Now he's barely holding on in Tennessee, ever so slightly behind in Ohio, and seems doomed for third in Georgia.

Romney's fortunes have swung the other direction. What was looking like a runner up finish in Ohio is looking more like a win with each passing day. He has an outside chance at pulling off an upset win in Tennessee. And it looks like he'll finish a solid second in Georgia.

The news for Gingrich is good too. It's been expected he would win Georgia, but it looks now like he could even hit the 50% mark. And he's pulled within striking distance of Santorum and Romney in Tennessee.

-In Ohio, late deciding voters are breaking toward Romney. He leads Santorum 40-28 with those who have made up their minds in the last few days or the last week. He's also going into election day with the lead. He's up 41-34 on Santorum with those who have already voted- that cushion from early voters helped put him over the top in Michigan last week. Romney's most important group of supporters in Ohio is seniors, with whom he has a 51-28 lead.

-In Tennessee, Santorum's saving grace may end up being early voters. 25% of the electorate has already voted and with those folks he's at 39% to 32% for Romney and 23% for Gingrich. Also working to Santorum's considerable advantage in Tennessee is that we find an electorate that is 66% Evangelicals, and they support Santorum 39-27 over Gingrich with Romney at 25%. As in Ohio, the late momentum is on Romney's side. He's up 38-34 on Santorum with those who've decided in the last few days or the last week, so if that continues on through Tuesday he'll have some chance at the upset.

-In Georgia, Gingrich is basically winning every group of the electorate. 66% of Republicans in the state have a favorable opinion of him to only 27% with a negative one. And although he now lives in Virginia, he's still embraced as a native son. 71% of voters consider him to be a Georgian to only 22% who do not.

Romney recita la balada de Davy Crockett en Knoxville, TN

2012-03-05T06:36:00.005-05:00

El Rey de la frontera salvaje es un héroe muy popular en Tennessee.

Born on a mountain top in Tennessee
Greenest state in the land of the free
Raised in the woods so he knew every tree
Killed him a bear when he was only three
Davy, Davy Crockett, King of the wild frontier...

Romney en Atlanta, Georgia

2012-03-05T06:33:00.000-05:00

Ron Paul en Achorage, Alaska

2012-03-05T06:32:00.000-05:00

Atiende a la prensa después de un rally.

Santorum en Oklahoma City

2012-03-05T06:29:00.002-05:00

(click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

Rasmussen: Santorum 34%, Romney 30% en Tennessee

2012-03-04T16:32:00.001-05:00

Rasmussen:

Just two days before Super Tuesday, the Republican primary race in Tennessee has become a two-man competition between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. The first Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in Tennessee shows Santorum attracting 34% of the vote, while Romney earns 30%. Polls from other firms have previously shown Santorum with a large lead in the state.

Santorum en Fox News Sunday

2012-03-04T16:23:00.001-05:00

Gingrich en cuatro talk shows domingueros

2012-03-04T16:23:00.000-05:00

En Meet The Press (NBC).

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

En Face The Nation (CBS).

En This Week (ABC).

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En State of the Union (CNN).

Ron Paul en dos talk shows domingueros

2012-03-04T13:13:00.001-05:00

En Face The Nation (CBS).

En State of the Union (CNN).

NBC/Marist: Santorum 34%, Romney 32% en Ohio

2012-03-04T11:02:00.000-05:00

NBC News:

Two days until Super Tuesday and the pivotal Ohio Republican presidential primary, Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney are running neck and neck in the Buckeye State, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll conducted Feb. 29 - March 2.

Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator, gets the support of 34 percent of likely GOP primary voters, and Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, gets 32 percent.

They’re followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 15 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 13 percent.

“I just think it’s going to very close,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, says of the Santorum-Romney race in the state.

That contest in Ohio – one of 11 on Super Tuesday – is significant for both Romney and Santorum. A Romney win, following his victories last week in Michigan and Arizona, would cement his front-runner status and keep him on his path (no matter how rocky it’s been) toward capturing the GOP presidential nomination.

But a Santorum win would signal that his close second-place finish in Romney’s native state of Michigan wasn’t a fluke, and it would likely ensure that this Republican nomination battle remains competitive — perhaps through April and maybe even June.

In Ohio, a majority of likely GOP primary voters view Romney as the Republican candidate with the best chance of defeating President Obama in November. And a plurality sees Santorum as the true conservative in the field and as the candidate who best understands their problems.

What’s more, Santorum performs better with the most conservative voters (Tea Party supporters, evangelical Christians, those describing themselves as “very conservative”), while Romney does better with more moderate voters and those who aren’t Tea Party supporters.

Yet by a 57 to 36 percent margin, these likely GOP primary voters prefer electability over ideology.