Team Huntsman se burla de Romney

En twitter:

@Jon_HuntsmanUSA: Before cutting into his turkey, @MittRomney took a poll on whether he should eat white or dark meat. #rebelromney

hace 11 horas

@Jon_HuntsmanUSA: Yesterday, after taking a poll on whether to eat white or dark turkey, @MittRomney was bold and chose ham...the poll winner. #RebelRomney

hace 1 hora

Roemer visita al movimiento Occupy DC

El Gobernador Buddy Roemer visitó ayer a los ocupas de la plaza Franklin McPherson de Washington DC. Maldijo a los lobbyistas y llamó a ocupar sus oficinas.

Thune ofrece su apoyo a Romney (video)

Feliz Acción de Gracias

Siguiendo la tradición, el Presidente Obama ha indultado a dos pavos que tendrán la suerte de no ser sacrificados y podrán terminar sus días tranquilamente en una granja o zoológico. Los elegidos de este año se llaman Peace y Liberty y son vecinos del gran estado de Minnesota. En la ceremonia sólo ha estado presente Liberty.

Thune ofrece su apoyo a Romney

El Senador John Thune, material presidenciable hasta que hace unos meses tomó la equivocada decisión de no presentarse, ha participado hoy en un mitin de Mitt Romney en Iowa para darle públicamente su apoyo.

No se ven mal juntos...

ARG: Gingrich lidera en Iowa

The Argo Journal:

American Research Group Iowa 2012 GOP Caucus Survey

•Newt Gingrich 27% {8%} [8%] (12%)
•Mitt Romney 20% {21%} [18%] (17%)
•Ron Paul 16% {12%} [14%] (3%)
•Michele Bachmann 6% {15%} [21%] (9%)
•Herman Cain 6% {6%} [2%] (0%)
•Rick Santorum 6% {2%} [5%] (2%)
•Rick Perry 5% {14%} [2%]
•Jon Huntsman 3% {1%} [3%] (0%)
•Undecided 11% {15%} [10%] (8%)

¿Hacia una convención abierta?

Howard Megdal plantea el caso en Salon.com:

A combination of the lack of strength within the current field, the inclinations of current GOP primary voters, the recently changed 2012 GOP rules, and even the best interests of the party itself all point to a strong possibility that there will be no presumptive nominee ahead of the convention.

Let’s start with the field itself. Mitt Romney has been the likeliest nominee in the eyes of many, given his stellar fundraising and organization. He finished second to Sen. John McCain, the 2008 nominee, and his challengers have self-destructed, one after another. Despite antipathy from some within the party, why shouldn’t Romney be next, just like McCain or 1996′s choice, Bob Dole?

The reasons are legion, of course. Since John McCain was defeated by Barack Obama, GOP politicians from Charlie Crist to Mike Castle, Lisa Murkowski to Jane Norton have discovered that even in statewide campaigns, it is nearly impossible to win a Republican nomination without earning the love, or at least avoiding the enmity, of the far right.

Romney has certainly internalized that lesson, dutifully signing Grover Norquist’s pledge and repudiating Obamacare in the strongest possible terms. Yet his tenure as Massachusetts governor, complete with a healthcare reform program that served as a template for Obama’s Affordable Care Act, serves as a deal-breaker for the conservative voters he’ll need when Iowa starts voting on Jan. 3, 2012. Romney remains stuck at about 25 percent in the polls, meaning three out of four Republicans reject him. With six weeks to go, Romney is running out of time to convince the voters to fall for him, and not for lack of trying.

Nor has the predicted stampede of GOP establishment heavyweights to Romney’s side come to pass. George Will called Mitt Romney “the pretzel candidate” last month; Bill Kristol declared in his most recent column that Romney was not “inevitable” but, in fact, very “evitable.”

Less noticed, but no less important, is the new GOP voting system, which is set up for early primary and caucus states to vote first, followed by all other proportionally allocated delegate states next. From April 1 on, the winner-take-all primary and caucus states will vote. That means a weak front-runner can earn victories in early states without taking a commanding share of that state’s delegates, while several challengers can lose, but still rack up a decent delegate total.

Ron Paul, for instance, is often overlooked by the media as a factor because his ceiling of support in the polls appears to be between 10 and 15 percent. But since his floor of support isn’t far below that, he will be able to pick up a chunk of delegates who won’t be available to Romney. The same will be true for Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry if they stay in the race — and the latter has plenty of cash still on hand.

For the very earliest states, this was true in 2008 too. The early primaries and caucuses allocated delegates proportionally, so winning them meant less in terms of amassing convention delegates, and more in terms of building a sense of momentum for the next round of voting in states that were nearly all winner-take-all. For example, McCain’s 5-point win over Romney in New Hampshire on Jan. 8, 2008, yielded only a 7-4 delegate edge. But his victories later that month in South Carolina by 3 points and Florida by 5 points captured 75 of the two states’ combined 81 delegates.

No such mechanism exists for any candidate in the 2012 race. Thanks to the new GOP rule, any primary or caucus held before April 1 must allocate delegates proportionally.

So when McCain won nine of 21 states on Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), with more than 50 percent of the vote in just three of them, the winner-take-all system gave him 608 of the 1,081 delegates at stake on the day. That meant total delegate haul — more than 56 percent of those available — was greater than his share of the vote in any single state that day. It also meant he received more than 57 percent of the delegates he’d need to be nominated in a single day. The result? Mitt Romney quickly called it quits, while Mike Huckabee continued on, but without any real attacks on McCain. The GOP race was over on Feb. 5.

This year will be different. The first winner-take-all primaries are Maryland, Wisconsin and Washington, D.C., on April 3. That means 1,163 of 2,380 delegates will be selected before a single winner-take-all primary is held.

The mathematical implications are stark. Take Missouri, for example, which votes on March 17, 2012, meaning its delegate will be allocated proportionally. Back in 2008, Missouri was winner-take-all. On the GOP side, John McCain edged Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney in a tight three-way contest, 33 percent to 32 percent to 29 percent. Despite the narrow win, McCain took all 58 of Missouri’s delegates.

Fast forward to 2012. If Mitt Romney performs as well in Missouri as McCain did in 2008, a big if, he would gain fewer than 20 delegates from the state. More to the point, the candidates collectively known as “Not Mitt Romney” would gain 38, making Not Mitt Romney the big winner.

But Not Mitt Romney won’t be on the ballot, right? Well, yes and no. Several candidates who aren’t Mitt Romney are likely to be on the ballot in all 50 states. If a majority of the party agrees on nothing more than Not Mitt Romney, the real Mitt Romey cannot enter April with a majority of delegates. If Romney is able to climb to even 30 percent nationally in the pre-April states — something he hasn’t done in a single national poll — and wins a corresponding percentage of the vote, he would still have only 349 delegates. That means he would need to capture 868 of the 1,217 winner-take-all delegates to capture the nomination through the primary process. His only hope is that the other candidates have dropped out.

But why should they? The Not Mitt Romney candidates would need to win just 350 delegates after April 1 to deny him a majority of delegates. How Romney avoids that fate is even less clear. Even he wins every state in the Northeast and the West where he is strongest, he still has a big challenge.

Romney is a tough sell in the South and the Midwest. In Ohio (66 delegates, June 12), for instance, Romney trailed Herman Cain last month, 34 percent to 19 percent; he was the second choice of just 13 percent of other voters. Romney lagged in third place last month in West Virginia (31 delegates, May 8), Nebraska (35 delegates, May 15) and North Carolina (66 delegates, May 8), trailing both Cain and Gingrich. In those states polls show Romney winning 16 percent, 13 percent and 17 percent of the vote, respectively. Those four states alone represent 187 of the 350 the Stop Romney forces will need — again, assuming Romney can even manage 30 percent of the vote through March 31.

There will be another 386 delegates chosen by voters in seven states: Wisconsin (42 delegates, April 3), Indiana (46 delegates, May 8), Arkansas (36 delegates, May 22), Kentucky (36 delegates, May 22), South Dakota (28 delegates, June 5) and Montana (26 delegates, June 5), and California (172 delegates, on June 5) where he trails Gingrich. The Not Mitt Romney forces would only need to win 163 (42 percent) to deny Romney a first ballot victory.

And, if they do, why exactly would the party leaders step in to save Romney’s nomination? Rather than settle for a nominee incapable of generating enthusiasm, they could use the convention to find a candidate more in tune with the Republican voters.

The GOP leadership and the rank and file would have the opportunity to nominate a compromise candidate who hasn’t been in the race at all: John Thune, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush, someone who can cite Romney’s unpopularity and moderate record as the basis for breaking their previous vows not to run. Suddenly, the Democrats would face a fresh conservative face who would receive just two months of scrutiny before Election Day.

And running against a president saddled with mediocre approval ratings, whose reelection prospects seem largely buoyed by his uninspired opponents, the Republicans would go into the general election with a sense of dynamism, not disappointment. A brokered convention in Tampa is shaping up the GOP’s best-case scenario.

Fuerzas anti-Romney se reunieron en secreto en Iowa

CNN:

Representatives for leading social conservative groups in Iowa held a secret meeting Monday as part of an effort with one main goal: find and support a Republican presidential candidate who can stop Mitt Romney in Iowa.

The idea: avoid splintering the conservative vote in the state by rallying around one GOP rival who could win Iowa's Jan. 3 caucus and then challenge Romney in New Hampshire and the other early voting states.

(...) Multiple sources have described to CNN details of the meeting and the general effort.

The meeting, the group's first, took place in a private office building in Des Moines on Monday. In attendance were representatives from the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, The Family Leader, the group Iowa Right to Life, and a representative for the Iowa chapter of Concerned Women for America. Some pastors from prominent Iowa churches also attended the meeting.

The effort seems limited to Iowa, with no apparent outreach to similar groups in other states.

While the concerns have been voiced before, what appears to be new is the meeting itself and organizers' hope for like-minded groups to come together against Romney, at least in Iowa.

Sources say there were about 20 to 25 people present at the meeting and that another meeting is planned for Monday of next week.

The effort is said to still be in the discussion phase. Participants were said to have narrowed their focus down to four candidates: Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

TeleResearch: Ron Paul, primero en Iowa

Tomadla con cautela porque la encuesta ha sido encargada por el comité de acción política del candidato.

RevolutionPAC:

Post-debate: Bachmann en On The Record (Fox News)

Post-debate: Cain en On The Record (Fox News)

Post-debate: Gingrich entrevistado en CNN

Debate en Washington, DC

Por primera vez en lo que va de campaña, Mitt Romney tiene en los debates un contrincante que está a su altura. Situado en la parte central del escenario y con más minutos que nunca, Newt Gingrich volvió a hacer una demostración de aptitudes. Mientras Romney se limita a ser eficaz, con respuestas competentes pero convencionales, para Gingrich cada pregunta representa una oportunidad para plantear un sesudo análisis de cada tema y elevar el nivel general del debate.

Aceptando con naturalidad que, debido a su nueva condición de front-runner, es el candidato al que se quiere poner a prueba, Gingrich evitó el tono provocador con los moderadores y fue el más acompasado en sus respuestas. Estuvo bien hablando de independencia energética, aportó interesantes matices al debate sobre los recortes presupuestarios en Defensa y sobre Irán, y entró en una discusión filosófica con Ron Paul sobre la competición entre libertades civiles y seguridad nacional.

Incluso se permitió el lujo de ir en contra de la ortodoxia conservadora en inmigración, considerando inhumano deportar indocumentados que lleven más de 25 años en el país. Es una posición potencialmente peligrosa en una primaria republicana, pero la insertó en el ámbito de los valores familiares (redadas que separan a menores de sus padres) y no fue tan lejos como Perry en su día defendiendo una política muy específica (becas).

Romney ofreció lo acostumbrado, un discurso republicano ortodoxo. Abogó por un aumento en el gasto militar, denunció que los recortes automáticos están minando la capacidad de autodefensa del país, y defendió sanciones contra Irán aunque dijo ser consciente que pueden encarecer el precio de la gasolina en EEUU. En inmigración, dijo estar en contra de cualquier forma de amnistía que pueda animar a otros a entrar ilegalmente en el país.

El ex Gobernador de Massachusetts tuvo algo menos de protagonismo que en otros debates y su desempeño fue menos dominante. Pero volvió a exhibir su habilidad para convertir muchas de las preguntas sobre política exterior en respuestas sobre política doméstica y contrastar sus posiciones con las del Presidente Obama, reforzando la idea de que, mientras no le demuestren lo contrario, la elección general es cosa suya y de Obama.

Rick Perry confirmó su cambio de estrategia. Ya no ataca a Romney. Ataca a Obama. Fue un outsider que se manifestó en contra de dar más cheques en blanco a Pakistán y pidió la dimisión del Secretario de Defensa Leon Panetta. Pero la política exterior no es lo suyo, a veces pareció demasiado simplista, y se puso a la defensiva cuando los demás candidatos rechazaron su idea de establecer una zona de exclusión aérea en Siria.

Algo parecido ocurrió con Herman Cain. Le falta autoridad en política exterior. Volvió a insistir en dejar las decisiones en manos de sus consejeros.

En cambio, Jon Huntsman tuvo su mejor noche. Estuvo competente y razonable, fue por momentos capaz de dominar alguna conversación, entrando incluso en un animado intercambio con Romney sobre la reducción de tropas en Afganistán, supo vincular la política exterior con la política económica, y fue crítico con la Ley Patriótica.

La actuación de Ron Paul volvió a ser difícil de valorar. Hizo gala de cualidades positivas, como la autenticidad y la lucidez, y alguna de sus ideas puede ser atractiva para el electorado republicano general, por ejemplo la crítica a que los pobres en América tengan que contribuir a los ricos de otros países. Pero lo de abandonar a Israel a su suerte o acabar con la guerra contra la droga lo sitúan lejos de una gran mayoría de republicanos.

Michele Bachmann fue la más combativa del pelotón, reprendiendo a sus rivales cada vez que tenía ocasión. Y Rick Santorum propuso una vigilancia más estrecha a los ciudadanos musulmanes.

El debate nos dio la oportunidad de volver a ver a leyendas de antiguas administraciones republicanas, como Ed Meese, Paul Wolfowitz y David Addington, que como miembros del AEI o la Heritage tuvieron ocasión de hacer preguntas a los candidatos.

Un sondeo mostrará mañana a Ron Paul en cabeza en Iowa

RevolutionPAC:

Congressman Ron Paul is leading by a significant margin in Iowa, according to preliminary results of a new TeleResearch poll.

Revolution PAC, the Super PAC formed to support presidential candidate Ron Paul, has received early data from the commissioned Iowa poll. The TeleResearch survey is the first to incorporate disaffected Democrats and Independents who will not vote to reelect Obama and will instead crossover to participate in the Iowa Republican Caucus, as well as likely Republican caucus-goers.

Survey sample size is approximately 2,900, with almost 700 likely Republican caucus-goers. Indiana’s TeleResearch Corp., which has been polling voters for more than 18 years, reports that the margin of error is less than 3%.

Factoring in both Republican caucus-goers and disaffected Democrats and Independents who’ve indicated that they will participate in the Iowa Republican Caucus, Ron Paul leads at 25%, with an approximate 4-point advantage over Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain.

Factoring in only Republicans voters, Ron Paul is in a three-way dead heat for the lead, with Paul and Cain tied and Gingrich trailing by 1 point.

¿Quién es más capaz de derrotar a Obama? ¿Romney o Gingrich?

Weekly Standard:

Each of these two leading GOP candidates certainly has his strengths in an electoral vein. Romney consistently fares better than Gingrich among independents — the block of voters who will likely decide the election — while Gingrich’s support among the Tea Party could help energizing the party’s base, which in turn could influence independents (who are generally more apt to rally behind candidates who have the enthusiastic support of others — a fact that seems to be particularly true for GOP candidates across the years).

Nearly a year out from the election, none of these poll numbers are remotely etched in stone — perhaps especially in Gingrich’s case, since his movement of late has been so evident. More important might be what each of the candidates would emphasize versus Obama, and how well he would emphasize it. Romney has consistently focused on the economy, saying that “fostering job creation through economic growth” will be his “top priority from his first day in office.” Meanwhile, Gingrich says that his top priority is “repealing Obamacare,” adding, “I think that’ll be the campaign theme in September and October of next year.”

The Family Leader hace la primera criba: descarta a Romney, Cain y Paul

Des Moines Register:

The conservative Iowa group the Family Leader has announced it has narrowed its endorsement to four possible candidates:

• Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich
• U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota
• Former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsyvania
• Texas Gov. Rick Perry

(...) Here are some of the problems with candidates that won’t get the nomination that the group outlined:

RON PAUL (A U.S. representative from Texas): Each individual of the seven member voting Board of Directors expressed many positives of Ron Paul. The stumbling block for the board regarding Paul dealt primarily with “States’ Rights” as it pertains to the sanctity of human life and God’s design for marriage.

HERMAN CAIN (A former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza): Regarding Mr. Cain, the board cited a narrative of questions versus clarity on the key issues of life, marriage, foreign policy and presidential readiness.

MITT ROMNEY: (Former governor of Massachusetts who declined to attend Saturday’s forum): The board did not give consideration to Governor Romney.

Bachmann en Late Night (NBC)

Continúa: Parte 2

Una escena retrospectiva

Debate de los candidatos a la nominación demócrata de 1992 (emitido por NBC el 15 de diciembre de 1991, y reemitido por C-SPAN).

Kellyanne Conway: amplia ventaja de Gingrich en SC

POLITICO.com:

There's no doubt the Newt Gingrich surge is real, and it's apparently spreading to South Carolina - with new private polling showing the former House Speaker leading Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, another southerner, by a 2-to-1 margin.

The numbers from Kellyanne Conway's Polling Company show Gingrich getting 31 percent, while Cain gets 17 percent and Romney gets 16 percent. No other hopeful cracked double digits (Rick Perry was the closest, with 6 percent).

In the second-choice balloting there, Gingrich did best, 22 percent to Cain's 18 percent, and Romney's 16 percent. Perry is in fourth place, at 12 percent, among "second choices."

Huntsman lleva ya más de 100 eventos en New Hampshire

El Gobernador Jon Huntsman está siendo el candidato más activo en New Hampshire.

Desde que hace un par de meses trasladó su cuartel general de Orlando a Manchester, ningún otro candidato está trabajándose New Hampshire como Huntsman (a excepción de Romney, claro). La pasada semana celebró su evento número 100 en el estado.

Está actuando a lo Estes Kefauver: participa en town hall meetings a un ritmo casi diario, aceptando cualquier pregunta, visita cafeterías, desayuna, come y cena de cara al público, y se presenta en todos los foros en que lo invitan. Y sus últimos eventos reciben más público que cuando empezó.

Aunque muy lentamente, los sondeos también empiezan a registrar su actividad en el estado. A pesar de que a nivel nacional sigue en la cola, en New Hampshireya empieza a moverse en torno al 10%, acercándose a las alternativas más viables a Romney.

Video: ayer estuvo respondiendo a preguntas del público en el Norton's Classic Cafe de Nashua.

14º debate del año

Wolf Blitzer (CNN) moderará esta noche un nuevo debate republicano en el DAR Constitution Hall, a pocos pasos de la Casa Blanca, en Washington, D.C. Algunas fuentes señalan que será el primer debate presidencial que se celebra en la capital federal desde uno de los debates entre JFK y Nixon en 1960, aunque no estoy seguro de si esto es cierto.

El debate está patrocinado por The Heritage Foundation y el American Enterprise Institute (AEI) y tratará temas de seguridad nacional, política exterior, y economía. Se da la circunstancia de que tendrá lugar a pocas horas de que se cumpla la fecha límite para que el "Supercomité" del Congreso alcance un acuerdo sobre el plan para reducir el déficit, de modo que ese asunto puede tener un lugar importante en la discusión.

Participarán los ocho candidatos habituales: Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, Perry, Romney, y Santorum.

A partir de las 8 pm (hora de la Costa Este) en CNN.