Balance de las Primarias Republicanas de 2012

Ayer concluyeron oficialmente las primarias presidenciales republicanas de 2012 con la esperada victoria de Mitt Romney en Utah con el 93% de los votos. El ex Gobernador de Massachusetts se llevó los 40 delegados en juego, sumando un total de 1,512 delegados, según Associated Press. Supera en 368 delegados los 1,144 necesarios para salir nominado en la primera votación de la convención, y es probable que se haga también con una mayoría de los delegados de los candidatos que ya han renunciado a competir en la convención (Santorum, Gingrich y Huntsman). El único competidor que sigue en activo, Ron Paul, suma 158 delegados.

Por delegados,



Por estados ganados,



Romney (37 estados): Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nueva York, Carolina del Norte, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Dakota del Sur, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Virginia Occidental, Wisconsin y Wyoming.

Santorum (11 estados): Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Dakota del Norte, Oklahoma y Tennessee.

Gingrich (2 estados): Georgia y Carolina del Sur.

Por voto popular,

Gobernador Mitt Romney - 9,620,460 votos
Senador Rick Santorum - 3,898,874 votos
Speaker Newt Gingrich - 2,713,417 votos
Congresista Ron Paul - 2,039,214 votos
Gobernador Jon Huntsman - 84,693 votos
Gobernador Rick Perry - 54,769 votos
Congresista Michele Bachmann - 41,333 votos
Gobernador Buddy Roemer - 28,008 votos
Herman Cain - 13,629 votos
Gobernador Gary Johnson - 4,364 votos

Gingrich en Lancaster, Pennsylvania

En la cena anual del GOP del condado de Lancaster.

(click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

Gingrich en The Situation Room (CNN)

El primer reto de Romney: cómo integrar a los rivales

POLITICO.com:

Rick Santorum

(...) So the question for Romney becomes this: How does he bring Santorum and his supporters inside the tent at a moment when he also wants to appeal to a broader, general election audience? It could prove a tricky task.

Some high-profile conservatives are warning Romney not to marginalize Santorum.

“If they want to be successful, they have to figure out a way to incorporate him into the campaign,” said Family Research Council head Tony Perkins, noting that Santorum “could’ve held this thing out even longer.”

That may mean prime time at the GOP convention this summer.

“I think he should have a very prominent role there,” Perkins said.

But even before Santorum left Gettysburg on Tuesday, some senior Republicans were fretting about the specter of Tampa being hijacked by one of the losing candidates and their supporters.

“We can’t let somebody who’s a better performer upstage Romney,” said one influential party leader, recalling GOP conventions in 1976 (Ronald Reagan) and 1992 (Pat Buchanan) when the nominee’s message was stepped on by his chief primary opponent. “We can’t have another shrill speech like what Pat did in 1992 with our gender gap.”

Newt Gingrich

(...) Gingrich has made clear, in both his public comments and in a private meeting with Romney, that he’s realistic about his chances and is remaining in the race to have his voice heard.

That means Boston must make him feel loved — or at least respected.

“I think Newt wants to be part of the campaign,” Bell said. “He clearly wants to make his peace and help lead the crusade against Obama. Romney can accommodate that, and tell him they’ll listen to anything he has to say about the platform.”

(...) Still, some in the party fret about giving the often-undisciplined Gingrich too much of a high profile in Tampa, worrying he’ll veer off message from the podium.

“Can you imagine Gingrich being told to vet his speech through Romney’s campaign staff?” asked one senior Republican.

Ron Paul

(...) Paul has at least two other interests: the ambitions of his son, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), and the fate of his agenda. The first can be taken care of with a convention role. The latter is more delicate.

“It’s not a quid pro quo thing, but [Paul] should know that the issues he raised in the primary, especially on monetary reform, will get attention,” said Bell. “Romney should make clear he’s open to looking at different options at the Fed.”

The other issue with Paul: how to tame his youthful supporters, few of which have any allegiance to the GOP.

Romney officials will have to spend some time and money in the next months minding state Republican conventions to ensure that the actual delegates elected to be on the floor in Tampa are truly loyal to him.

“You don’t want to have closet Ron Paul delegates there,” Donatelli said. “We had to spend at least a half-million dollars after John McCain was the presumptive candidate on state convention stuff just to make sure real McCain people were elected as delegates.”

Gingrich en Hannity (Fox News)

Gingrich en Fox News Sunday

"Creo que hay que ser realistas, (Romney) es por lejos el nominado más probable," ha reconocido Gingrich. También ha admitido que su campaña sufre de falta de fondos, pero de momento descarta la retirada.

Ha reconocido el mérito de Romney a la hora de construir una maquinaria electoral potente, y se ha mostrado dispuesto a trabajar duro para él cuando consiga la nominación formal del partido, si promueve un programa conservador sólido.

Santorum y Gingrich, en conversaciones

Mark Halperin:

Pennsylvanian confabs in North Virginia with conservative leaders.

Talks about the path forward, with Gingrich's future on the agenda, including a possible unity effort to stop Romney.

Santo source, responding to speculation: "He is NOT dropping out before Pennsylvania."

GOP source adds Santo and Newt have met face-to-face at least twice in the last few weeks and have also had some VERY long phone calls recently.

Rasmussen: Santorum 42%, Romney 38% en Pennsylvania

Rasmussen:

Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum holds a four-point lead in his home state in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the upcoming Pennsylvania Republican Primary.

A new statewide telephone survey finds that 42% of Likely GOP Primary Voters support Santorum, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney picks up 38% of the vote. Texas Congressman Ron Paul earns seven percent (7%), and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is at six percent (6%). Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

PPP: Romney adelanta a Santorum en Pennsylvania

Public Policy Polling:

Mitt Romney's taken the lead in PPP's newest poll of Rick Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania. Romney has 42% to 37% for Santorum with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%. The numbers represent a dramatic turnaround from when PPP polled the state a month ago. Romney's gained 17 points, going from 25% to 42%. Meanwhile Santorum's dropped 6 points from 43% to 37%, for an overall swing of 23 points in the last four weeks.

Pennsylvania Republicans are expressing major doubts about Santorum's viability both in the primary and the general election. Only 36% of GOP voters think Santorum has a realistic chance at the nomination to 54% who believe he does not. And when it comes to matching up against Barack Obama in the fall only 24% of Republicans think Santorum would provide their best chance for a victory while 49% think that designation belongs to Romney.

Santorum's favorability numbers haven't really changed from a month ago. He was at 64/30 and now he's at 62/31. But Romney's seen quite a bit of improvement in his image, perhaps reflecting growing acceptance that he will be the nominee. His favorability has improved a net 16 points from +6 (46/40) to +22 (57/35).

Romney's made huge in roads with the groups that have tended to fuel Santorum's success. What was a 37 point lead for Santorum with Evangelicals is now only 10 points at 44-34. What was a 32 point advantage for him with Tea Party voters is now only 6 at 41-35. And in the greatest sign that conservatives are starting to really around Romney a little bit, what was a 51 point deficit for him with 'very conservative' voters is now only 11 points at 44-33. Romney's leading in Pennsylvania due to strong support from seniors (46-32), men (44-35), 'somewhat conservative' voters (50-36), moderates (39-28), and suburban voters (48-31).

Obviously the race is still tight enough in Pennsylvania that Santorum could yet win...but the momentum is going completely against him and it looks like Romney will have the chance to strike a final crushing blow on April 24th.

Recuento de delegados

Romney hizo pleno de delegados en DC y Maryland. En DC se llevó los 16 delegados que estaban en juego + 2 superdelegados que ya le habían prometido su apoyo. En Maryland se hizo con toda la delegación (37 delegados) gracias a su victoria estatal y en todos los distritos electorales.

En Wisconsin se lleva al menos 30 delegados (18 por la victoria estatal + 12 por su victoria en cuatro distritos); Santorum se lleva al menos 6 delegados por su victoria en dos distritos; y todavía quedan 6 por determinar.

El total de delegados, según Associated Press, quedaría así:


* Se necesitan 1,144 delegados para ganar la nominación.

Por estados ganados,

Triple victoria de Romney

Wisconsin:

Mitt Romney 305,740 votos 42.5%
Rick Santorum 270,686 votos 37.6%
Ron Paul 83,969 votos 11.7%
Newt Gingrich 43,893 votos 6.1%
Otros 14,804 votos 2.1%

Maryland:

Mitt Romney 116,922 votos 49.1%
Rick Santorum 68,848 votos 28.9%
Newt Gingrich 25,967 votos 10.9%
Ron Paul 22,649 votos 9.5%
Otros 3,632 votos 1.5%

Distrito de Columbia:

Mitt Romney 3,122 votos 70.2%
Ron Paul 535 votos 12%
Newt Gingrich 477 votos 10.7%
Jon Huntsman 312 votos 7%

Romney ha gastado cuatro veces más que Santorum en Wisconsin

ABC News:

Candidates and their allies have poured serious change into the Wisconsin airwaves. Romney and his allies have spent upwards of $3.1 million on TV ad buys, according to a source tracking GOP ad buys. For comparison, Santorum and his allies have spent roughly $717,000 on TV ad buys, a margin of about 4:1.

Romney and Santorum aren’t alone on the airwaves. The Super PAC supporting Newt Gingrich- Winning Our Future- made a small ad buy in the Badger state- $120,381, according to their FEC filings.

Though it’s much smaller than the amount spent in Wisconsin, the pro-Romney Restore Our Future Super PAC has also spent money in Maryland. The group has spent $436,204 on ad buys in the state, according to their FEC filings.

WAA: 8 puntos de ventaja para Romney en Wisconsin

We Ask America:

PPP: Romney se encamina a una doble victoria mañana

Public Policy Polling:

Mitt Romney looks to be headed for another pair of victories in Tuesday's primaries. Maryland is likely to be a blow out with Romney at 52% to 27% for Rick Santorum, 10% for Newt Gingrich, and 9% for Ron Paul. Wisconsin should be a good deal closer. There Romney's at 43% to 36% for Santorum, 11% for Paul, and 8% for Gingrich.

Romney's starting to have some success with groups that have generally been key components of Santorum's base over the last two months. For instance he leads with Tea Party voters in both states, 43-34 in Maryland and 46-38 in Wisconsin. He's also becoming more competitive with Evangelical voters, leading 43-36 with them in Maryland and trailing only 47-35 with them in Wisconsin. In the states where Santorum's been victorious he's generally won Evangelicals by a much wider margin than that.

The only thing keeping Santorum competitive in Wisconsin is the state's open primary. He actually trails Romney 50-36 with Republican voters but 40% of those saying they're likely to vote are either independents or Democrats and with those folks Santorum leads 37-32, making it more competitive overall. If those non-Republicans don't actually end up turning out Romney can expect to win by a wider margin.

Among voters who decided 'in the last few days,' 9% of the Wisconsin electorate, Santorum leads Romney 52-27. That makes you wonder whether Paul Ryan's late endorsement of Romney was much of a game changer.

Newt Gingrich might not be ready to leave the GOP race for President, but the party base is ready for him to. In Wisconsin 63% of voters think he should drop out, while 27% think he should continue on. In Maryland it's 57% who believe he should drop out to 33% who believe he should stay in.

Gingrich, Romney y Santorum en el FFC de Wisconsin

Los tres candidatos han hablado esta mañana en un foro de la Faith and Freedom Coalition de Wisconsin.

Rasmussen: Romney 44%, Santorum 34% en Wisconsin

Rasmussen:

The numbers have moved little over the past week with Mitt Romney still holding a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum in the closing days of the Wisconsin Republican Primary race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Wisconsin shows Romney with 44% support to Santorum’s 34%. A week ago in Wisconsin, it was Romney 46% and Santorum 33%.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul both pick up seven percent (7%) of the vote from Badger State Republicans, virtually unchanged from the previous survey. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

A Ron Paul le ha costado 500,000 dólares cada delegado; 30 dólares el voto

National Journal:

Whether the race is nearly over or not is a choice for voters and candidates to make. But what's been spent by whom and for what tells us something about the four remaining campaigns -- where they are, where they have been and how they have fared.

That eye-popping headline is right. Texas Rep. Ron Paul has spent $496,461 per delegate. He's spent $30.35 per vote. He's the most profligate candidate in the race when it comes to return-on-investment (ROI to Romney).

Or is he?

The Paul campaign says they've spent wisely and will prove it over time (back to that in a minute).

The Paul math goes like this: According to his latest filing with the Federal Election Commission, Paul has spent $32,766,465. He's received 1,079,753 votes for a cost-per-vote total of $30.35. He's won 66 delegates for a cost-per-delegate total of $496,461.

Doug Weed, a senior Paul adviser offered the following:

"The delegate counts, such as those promoted by the New York Times and The Associated Press are pure media fiction. So your delegate-per-dollar is skewed. For example, they (NYT and AP) say the delegate count in Iowa is Santorum 14, Romney 12 and Paul 1. We have one delegate in Iowa? Hmm. I don't want to reveal too much, but our delegate strategy is doing just fine and it is worth every dollar."

Maybe so. But the raw numbers based on available delegate counts don't look good for Paul.

Romney's cost-per-vote (CPV) total is $16.18. His cost-per-delegate (CPD) is $118,218.

The math: $66,793,395 spent with 4,127,917 votes and 565 delegates.

Santorum's CPV is an amazing $4.56 cents. That's just over a quarter of Romney's and about a seventh of Paul's.

Santorum's CPD is $50,873.

He's spent $13,023,588 and won 2,850,546 votes and 256 delegates. Imagine if Romney or Paul were this efficient? Imagine if the federal government or a private business was this efficient?

"Clearly, Rick Santorum has proven that among the GOP presidential contenders he has been able to do much more while spending much less," said chief strategist John Brabender. "Isn't that exactly what we are asking the next president to do?"

Brabender said this is the crux of why Santorum won't quit. He seems to have a point. Would anyone in politics who had done this much with so little just chuck it? Would that candidate tell supporters who made something out of almost nothing to just give up and go away? Some might. But most wouldn't. Brabender said Santorum will not. At least not yet.

What about Gingrich? Maybe shedding one-third of his staff and charging $50 a photo will bring new efficiency. He'll need it.

Gingrich's CPV is $8.91. Gingrich's CPD is $139,830. Here's the math: $19,716,106 spent for 2,212,001 votes and 141 delegates.

These numbers don't include Super PAC funds spent on behalf of the candidates (either for them or against their rivals).

Gingrich en On The Record (Fox News)

NBC/Marist: Romney 40%, Santorum 33% en Wisconsin

NBC News:

In Wisconsin’s April 3 Republican contest, the former Massachusetts governor gets support from 40 percent of likely primary voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a particular candidate. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum gets 33 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul gets 11 percent, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gets 8 percent. Seven percent of respondents are undecided.

The poll – conducted March 26-27 – is consistent with the findings of a recent Marquette Law School survey, which found Romney leading Santorum by eight points. The Wisconsin race follows a familiar pattern: Romney holds the advantage over Santorum among liberal and moderate Republicans (43 percent to 24 percent), conservatives (42 percent to 33 percent), non-Tea Party supporters (42 percent to 31 percent), and those who earn $75,000 or more annually (47 percent to 32 percent).

Meanwhile, Santorum leads among very conservative primary voters (42 percent to 33 percent), strong Tea Party supporters (40 percent to 32 percent), and evangelical Christians (40 percent to 29 percent).

So far in all the GOP contests where there has been exit polling, Romney has won in every contest where evangelical voters have accounted for less than 50 percent of the electorate. And he has lost in every contest where that number has been higher than 50 percent. The evangelical percentage among likely Wisconsin GOP primary voters, according to the NBC/Marist poll: 41 percent.

La reunión con Newt fue un acercamiento informal, según Romney

ABC News:

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney confirmed reports Thursday that he and Newt Gingrich met secretly in New Orleans the day before the Louisiana primary.

But Romney played down the importance of the meeting between the himself and Gingrich, who earlier this week scaled back his campaign and laid off staffers.

“We’re pretty much in regular communication between the different campaigns and I said hello to Newt,” Romney told Sean Hannity in a radio interview. “Nothing new, nothing exciting except we keep a friendly discourse open.”

A source close to the Gingrich campaign confirmed the meeting happened early on Friday morning at around 6:30 a.m. at Romney’s hotel in the French Quarter district of New Orleans. Gingrich was staying at a hotel about 30 minutes away from Romney’s hotel and met with him before heading to the southern part of Louisiana to campaign in Port Fourchon.

“We do meet from time to time and I’m sure that the Speaker meets with Rick Santorum as well but we don’t go off and report the discussions,” Romney said. “But they are friendly and we discuss the issues, we discuss the way forward but we don’t reveal our secret campaign strategies.”

Gingrich campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond told ABC News that he was not the source of other reports that the two candidates had met, however, “Newt does speak Santorum and Romney on a regular basis.”