Tampa: Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush anticipa que hablará de educación

El popular ex Gobernador de Florida ha dicho en Morning Joe (MSNBC) que esta noche hablará de la urgencia de reformar el sistema educativo, el tema insignia de su mandato como Gobernador. También está previsto que defienda a su hermano de las continuadas críticas de Obama.

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Jeb a Mitt: elige a Rubio

The Associated Press:

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush says he thinks Sen. Marco Rubio is ready to be vice president and that he has shared those thoughts with Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

(...) In an interview with The Associated Press, Bush says he pitched Rubio during a recent conversation he had with Romney. He says that Romney didn't indicate which way the search for a vice presidential candidate was taking him.

16: ¿está Jeb Bush posicionándose para una candidatura presidencial?

Reuters:

Ever since Jeb Bush left the Florida governor's mansion in 2007 with favorable ratings after two terms, speculation has swirled about his political future.

(...) When he said he supported a modest tax increase along with spending cuts to help reduce the federal debt, Bush joked, "This will prove I'm not running for anything." Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the presumed Republican presidential nominee, and the party leadership oppose any and all tax hikes.

Comments like these have only fueled speculation that Bush is positioning himself to run for president - in 2016. According to this scenario, his breaking with the party on issues such as taxes is meant to stake out a platform that will move it back to the moderate center and away from more divisive social issues, while also seeking more common ground on issues such as education and immigration.

The best argument for doing that, of course, would be if Romney, running on more conservative positions, fails to unseat President Barack Obama this year.

"Jeb Bush is following a pattern we see with ambitious presidential candidates," said Jamie Chandler, a political scientist at Hunter College, New York. "Just like Romney did in 2004, he's raising his public profile and increasing his speech activity now for a potential run in four years."

If Romney wins, Bush would be a likely cabinet candidate, perhaps as education secretary, said Chandler. But any presidential ambitions would have to wait until 2020. By then he would be almost 68, just a year younger than Reagan in 1990, the oldest U.S. president to be sworn into office.

Not everyone is convinced Bush has such a game plan. Some of the people who know him best say he is not that calculating. They say he is speaking out because he is deeply loyal to the Republican Party and worried about the issues he holds dear.

"It's more about helping the cause than helping himself. He will always call it the way he sees it," said Jorge Arrizurietta, a top Republican fundraiser in Miami and a former adviser to Jeb Bush. "I can't tell you that he's got a master plan, but there is a broad consensus in the party that Jeb should stay involved and consider a run at the right moment."

(...) Bush's conservative record in government gives him more "flexibility" to speak freely, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "He's got a record that's appealed to the base. That overrides any apostasy on the campaign trail."

Bush secured his bona fides with social conservatives in 2003 with his controversial order to reinsert the feeding tube of Terri Schiavo, a brain-injured woman who had been in a coma for 15 years. The family was divided over whether to keep her alive, but right-to-life activists pushed the matter all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Bush made his biggest mark as governor in education policy, securing a number of reforms with a conservative slant. He signed a measure giving public schools an annual grade based on student test scores and rewarded them with state funds accordingly.

He encouraged charter schools, which are publicly funded but typically run by private corporations, and instituted a statewide voucher program - later struck down by the state Supreme Court - that let hundreds of students in failing public schools enroll in private and religious schools at taxpayer expense.

The state has posted strong growth in reading and math scores, according to recent federal data, with most of the gains coming during the Bush administration.

(...) "Jeb wants to be a leader on the big issues of the day ... Whether he's influencing the 2012 debate or the 2016 debate, or even 2020, that's not the question," said Chuck Cobb, a close friend of the Bush family and former undersecretary of commerce in the Reagan administration. "Does Jeb want to be a leader? Yes. Does Jeb have to be the leader of the United States to do that? I think not."

(...) His education work gives Bush a platform to proselytize fellow Republican lawmakers and governors. He has been to a dozen states over the past 15 months to promote the "Florida formula," in the process establishing a network that would serve him well in a national campaign.

Bush "has turned into a kind of Johnny Appleseed of education reform, carrying ideas around the country and planting them wherever he can," said Chester Finn Jr., an education policy analyst and president of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, an education think tank in Washington.

One of those ideas, which resonates with the party base, is to aggressively promote the idea that teachers unions are impediments to reform.

Education could be a way for Bush to build political coalitions, since the cause of improving America's schools crosses party lines.

(...) Even though they have their differences, Bush has earned the respect of the Tea Party. "Jeb Bush is a very solid conservative and a likable guy. Many people like me wish he was president," says Florida Tea Party Chairman Everett Wilkinson, a Palm Beach County political consultant.

Some Democrats also admit to a sneaking regard for him. "I think he is the most dangerous Republican candidate," says Freddy Balsera, a public relations consultant in Miami and Hispanic adviser to the Obama campaign. "He's a real conservative who understands Latino voters better than even many Latino elected officials," he added.

Hispanic voters were deeply opposed to the war in Iraq and blame George W. Bush for the recession. But by 2016 that may be less relevant.

Certainly, Jeb's family remains proud of the Bush brand. His granddaughter, born last year, was named Georgia H.W. Bush.

"I know that there's Bush fatigue right now, but I think Jeb can overcome that," says Ros-Lehtinen. "I hope that he runs for president. I think that's where he belongs."

16: ¿Ha perdido Jeb Bush la ambición?

El ex Gobernador de Florida Jeb Bush, hijo y hermano de Presidentes, admitió ayer en el programa de Charlie Rose (CBS) que puede que su hora para ser Presidente haya pasado ya.

"No he tomado esa decisión, aunque suele haber una ventana de oportunidad por todo tipo de razones, y este (2012) era probablemente mi momento. Aunque no lo sé, dado lo que creo y cómo lo creo, no estoy seguro ni siquiera de si hubiera sido un candidato exitoso. Estos son tiempos diferentes que los de hace seis años (cuando dejó la política)."

Rose le recordó que muchos en el GOP creen que tenía que haberse presentado este año, pero Bush no quiere atormentarse pensando en ello: "Ya sabes, nunca se sabe. Es pura especulación y lo que sí sé seguro es que no tienes que preocuparte de lo que podrías o lo que hubieras."

Jeb Bush: la Vicepresidencia no está en las cartas para mí

Jonathan Karl (ABC) ha acosado hoy a preguntas sobre la Vicepresidencia a Jeb Bush en los pasillos del Capitolio, a donde el ex Gobernador de Florida ha acudido invitado por el Comité de Presupuestos de la Cámara de Representantes a dar una charla.

"(La Vicepresidencia) No está en las cartas para mí. No sé cuántas veces tengo que repetirlo. Lo he repetido durante los dos últimos años. He sido muy consistente," ha dicho Bush.

Preguntado sobre qué diría si Romney le llama, ha dicho que "(la llamada) no va a llegar. No soy candidato. No me lo va a pedir." Y ha vuelto a recomendar a Marco Rubio.

Jeb Bush apoya a Romney

Tampa Bay Times:

Said the former Florida Gov:

“Congratulations to Governor Mitt Romney on his win last night and to all the candidates for a hard fought, thoughtful debate and primary season. Primary elections have been held in thirty-four states, and now is the time for Republicans to unite behind Governor Romney and take our message of fiscal conservatism and job creation to all voters this fall. I am endorsing Mitt Romney for our Party’s nomination. We face huge challenges, and we need a leader who understands the economy, recognizes more government regulation is not the answer, believes in entrepreneurial capitalism and works to ensure that all Americans have the opportunity to succeed.”

Persiste el ruido en torno a Jeb Bush

POLITICO.com:

Mitt Romney’s tortured triumph in Michigan put him back in the GOP driver’s seat — but that hasn’t quelled the desire among some Republicans to trade up.

Yes, Republicans are still pining for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush despite his repeated and vehement refusal to be sucked into the 2012 Republican vortex.

And Democrats continue to cast a wary eye on a guy they see as more dangerous — and capable of connecting with middle-class and Latino voters — than Romney.

The Bush murmurs persist, even as a resilient Romney marches toward Super Tuesday with a commanding lead in cash, delegates and momentum over a sagging Rick Santorum.

“I have the perfect candidate — Jeb Bush. But he’s not running,” former George W. Bush chief of staff Andy Card told Charlie Rose on CBS on Wednesday, echoing the sentiments of many in his party.

“What Democrat would not worry about a popular leader from a critical state who sounds pretty moderate and can rescue the GOP from its anti-Latino death grip?” asked former Bill Clinton press secretary Mike McCurry, who said he’s yet to find a Democratic elder who thinks the GOP is truly “unhinged” enough to consider ditching Romney for Bush.

(...) “I used to be a conservative and I watch these debates and I’m wondering, I don’t think I’ve changed but it’s a little troubling sometimes when people are appealing to people’s fears and emotion rather than trying to get them to look over the horizon for a broader perspective,” Bush told a gathering in Dallas last Thursday, according to FOX News.

“I think that changes when we get to the general election — I hope,” added Bush, who has personally urged Romney to moderate his rhetoric on illegal immigration for fear of completely alienating Hispanic voters in states like Florida, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona.

That got the attention of conservatives including Ann Coulter, who slammed him of prepping for a campaign, and Obama campaign officials who found his timing curious.

Ana Navarro, a Republican strategist and a friend of Bush, said she saw the former governor last Sunday and he laughed off any idea that he’ll jump in the game.

But even Navarro couldn’t resist indulging in a little starry-eyed speculation of what might have been.

“Why is he a fearful figure? You know, anybody who knows Jeb Bush and who’s heard Jeb Bush understands there’s a certain inspirational quality to him,” she said in an interview.

“He is smart, he is scary smart, and he has got a national network of supporters that he could turn on with the flip of a switch. And nobody could hold Obama’s feet to the fire in the Latino community like Jeb Bush.”

That opinion has considerable bipartisan support. “Don’t buy the bulls—- about us not being worried about Jeb,” added a veteran Democratic operative. “He’s a tough matchup even if his last name is Bush.”

(...) “I think anybody who’s legitimate would make it a race with Obama at this point,” said a former adviser to Hillary Clinton in 2008. “If they did get someone who was reasonably grown-up now and — poof — we got a race. … And Jeb’s not just anybody, he’s got damned good skills, he can raise money and even people who hated his brother concede he’s the smartest Bush.”

Emerge el anti-Romney

Gingrich tenía que ganar o irse a casa. Romney podía sobrevivir a una derrota. Las únicas conclusiones definitivas que deja Carolina del Sur son que la nominación republicana sigue abierta y que 10 días, los que han transcurrido desde la primaria de New Hampshire y los que quedan para Florida, es mucho tiempo en política.

Romney ha pasado del cuarto puesto de 2008, a un segundo puesto; de un 15% a un 28%; de 65,000 votos a 167,000. Es una mejoría espectacular para un ex Gobernador de Massachusetts en Carolina del Sur. El problema está en la sospecha de que su mejoría se deba únicamente a que la inevitabilidad de su nominación y el voto útil han sido la línea argumental de la campaña durante gran parte de los últimos 10 días. Los resultados de ayer pueden cambiar la línea argumental de la campaña y hacer desaparecer esa percepción de inevitabilidad, ese privilegio o exención que ha tenido Romney hasta ahora sobre sus rivales. La paciencia puede no ser ya suficiente y puede verse obligado a adoptar una estrategia más agresiva.

No hay que subestimar la enormidad de la victoria de Gingrich en Carolina del Sur. Ganó en 43 de los 46 condados. Romney resistió sólo en Richland (Columbia), Charleston y Beaufort (Hilton Head). Santorum no fue rival en los condados clave del interior, Greenville y Spartanburg. Y los dos gastaron más dinero que Gingrich en la última semana.

Podría decirse que Gingrich ha sabido canalizar un doble descontento: el explícito con la Administración Obama y el velado con el establishment del GOP. Los republicanos de Carolina del Sur han encontrado en él un eficaz portavoz de su frustración con el gobierno federal y un persistente 9.9% de paro.

La misma frustración puede encontrarse en Florida, que vota el 31 de enero, con más de un 10% de paro. El conservadurismo cultural de la región del Panhandle y los blancos pobres de la "Redneck Riviera" que tienen el cuello enrojecido por el sol, están hechos a la medida de Gingrich.

Romney partirá con la ventaja de haber recibido ya más de medio millón de votos (un 31%) en 2008. Se apoyará en los supervotantes cubanos y en la potente maquinaria republicana de las zonas urbanas. También juega a favor de Romney que Florida sea un mega-estado con 10 mercados mediáticos distintos. Es imposible cubrirlo en 10 días sólo a base de town hall meetings y retail politics. Allí el dinero importa.

Aunque habrá dos debates. Y eso son cuatro horas de televisión gratis en prime-time. También surgirán nuevos temas de debate que en Carolina del Sur no han existido. Romney explotará la conexión de Gingrich con Freddie Mac y cuestionará la ética del ex Speaker para contrarrestar la presión sobre su declaración fiscal. Gingrich jugará con toda probabilidad la carta de la inmigración, un arma de doble filo.

Y quedan por resolverse algunas incógnitas: ¿Soportará Santorum las presiones que recibirá de uno y otro lado? ¿Qué harán Jeb Bush y Marco Rubio? La respuesta de Mitch Daniels al discurso sobre el Estado de la Unión de Obama el martes, ¿abrirá un debate sobre si debería presentarse a las elecciones para parar a Gingrich?

Votantes de NH están siendo sondeados sobre Jeb Bush

The Weekly Standard:

My better half stumbles across some interesting reports from people in New Hampshire:

"So a writer I follow who lives in New Hampshire just tweeted:

@publicroad: I live in NH & just got a robocall polling me about what I think about Romney vs. Gingrich vs. *Jeb Bush*.

Other folks are reporting the same polling is taking place in New Hampshire."

It's far from crazy to think it's too late to enter the race. As the boss recently explained, "We REALLY do not know who the GOP nominee will be."

Escenario para nuevos candidatos (III)

Nate Silver:

I think there is a small but nontrivial chance that the Republican nominee could be someone like Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty or Chris Christie.

(...) The motive is pretty simple: Republicans are dangerously close to having none of their candidates be acceptable to both rank-and-file voters and the party establishment. It’s not quite clear what happens when this is the case; there is no particularly good precedent for it. But since finding a nominee who is broadly acceptable to different party constituencies is the foremost goal of any party during its nomination process, it seems distinctly possible that Republicans might begin to look elsewhere.

(...) Say that Mr. Gingrich survives this onslaught, as he certainly could. He wins Iowa and then either wins New Hampshire or finishes a respectable second there. He continues to lead in national polls of Republican voters, as he does now.

What happens then? One scenario, obviously — probably the most likely scenario — is that Mr. Gingrich wins South Carolina, and he wins Florida, and he holds on to win the Republican nomination.

But Mr. Gingrich might nevertheless be considered an unacceptable choice by much of the party establishment. That would put us in uncharted waters. There hasn’t really been a case in the past where a candidate who held the national polling lead after New Hampshire was considered unacceptable by the party elite. Most of the time, instead, the establishment (as measured by endorsements) and the rank-and-file (as measured by support in national polls) have agreed upon a candidate by that point in time.

There have been six cases, meanwhile, in which there was no clear front-runner after New Hampshire. These are discussed briefly below.

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1972 Democrats. Edmund S. Muskie, the clear favorite of the party establishment, won both Iowa and New Hampshire. The performances were perceived as disappointing, however, and Mr. Muskie was at only about 20 percent in national polls (still good enough to put him in a rough tie with Hubert H. Humphrey). A third candidate, George McGovern, who had helped to design the reformed nomination rules and cagily exploited them by dominating in caucus states, won the nomination despite taking only about 25 percent of the national popular vote.

1976 Democrats. Party leaders were extremely slow to endorse any candidates in 1976, but Jimmy Carter surged to the national polling lead after wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. Although Mr. Carter was a relatively obscure figure who was not beloved by the party establishment, he nevertheless took the nomination. This is among the more favorable precedents for Mr. Gingrich, although it differs slightly from this year in that there was no consensus among the establishment about who to support in lieu of Mr. Carter.

1984 Democrats. Walter Mondale was the clear favorite of the establishment and seemed headed for an easy nomination after a dominant performance in Iowa. The favorable media attention to Gary Hart’s second-place showing, however, give him momentum that he rode to a win in New Hampshire, after which he drew into a rough tie with Mr. Mondale in the national polls. Mr. Mondale eventually prevailed in a close race.

1988 Democrats. Michael Dukakis, the eventual nominee, had won New Hampshire but had lost Iowa to Dick Gephardt. Mr. Dukakis was roughly tied for the endorsement lead with Al Gore, and was roughly tied in the national polls with Jesse Jackson. Thus, Mr. Dukakis was in the strongest overall shape, although he was not dominant in any one category so the nomination took some time to sort out.

2008 Democrats. This was a strange case. Hillary Clinton regained the national polling lead following her comeback win in New Hampshire. However, Barack Obama — who had once considerably trailed Mrs. Clinton in party support — unveiled a series of key endorsements from senators like John Kerry and Claire McCaskill in the week just after New Hampshire, making the question of who had the party establishment’s support ambiguous.

2008 Republicans. John McCain pulled into the national polling lead after his win in New Hampshire, although it took further wins in states like South Carolina and Florida before endorsers (who had long been split between Mr. McCain, Mr. Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson) closed ranks around him.
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Although there are some loose parallels to this year in the 1972 and 1976 Democratic primaries, none of them involved an acute conflict between the establishment and the rank-and-file of the sort we have this year between Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich. It is not a year like 2008, when the Democrats had at least two broadly acceptable nominees, in which you’d expect to see a brokered convention or a dark-horse candidate emerging. Instead, it’s a year like this one in which all the choices are unacceptable to some degree or another.

There are deterrents, of course, to a candidate like Mr. Bush or Mr. Ryan entering the race late. Most notably, there is no guarantee that they would succeed. If they tried and failed, that could be an unmitigated disaster for the Republican Party, undermining its eventual nominee. But the odds of a dark-horse candidate or brokered convention will increase to the extent that any of the following conditions hold:

1a. Mr. Gingrich leads the delegate count, but does not have more than about 50 percent of delegates.

1b. Mr. Gingrich holds more than 50 percent of delegates but is involved in a significant gaffe or scandal at some point later in the campaign.

2a. Mr. Romney has performed poorly enough in the early states that he is no longer viable.

2b. Mr. Romney is viable but his unfavorability ratings have considerably increased to the point that he no longer qualifies as a consensus choice.

3. A factional candidate like Ron Paul holds 10 or 15 percent of the delegates.

All of these conditions seem plausible based on what we know right now, which is what leads me to believe that a brokered convention is plausible as well.

Escenario para nuevos candidatos (I)

Rhodes Cook, del Center for Politics de la Universidad de Virginia:

The elongated layout of the nominating calendar this time provides the opportunity for a late-starting candidate to emerge. Should Mitt Romney stumble badly in the January events in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, another establishment Republican could enter the race in early February and still compete directly in states with at least 1,200 of the 2,282 or so GOP delegates. Many of them will be up for grabs after April 1 when statewide winner-take-all is possible.

Similarly, should non-Romney alternatives led by Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry fall flat in the January contests, there would be time for the conservative wing of the party to find a new champion to carry its banner through the bulk of the primary season.

In some respects, the layout of the 2012 primary calendar resembles that in 1976, starting in the dead of winter with events in Iowa and New Hampshire and building to a crescendo with California in early June. That year, President Gerald Ford and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan battled delegate for delegate until Ford prevailed at the convention that summer in Kansas City. It was the most closely contested and longest-running Republican nominating contest in the last 40 years.

On the Democratic side, the “back-loaded” arrangement of the primary calendar encouraged two late entries in 1976, Gov. Jerry Brown of California and Sen. Frank Church of Idaho. Each won several spring-time primaries. But they mounted their campaigns too late to offset former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter’s long lead in the delegate count.

Eight years earlier, Sen. Robert Kennedy of New York was a far more successful late starter. He entered the Democratic race after the New Hampshire primary and proceeded to run off a series of high-profile primary victories, culminating with a winner-take-all triumph in California in early June. Had he not been shot the night of his California victory, Kennedy might have gone on to wrest the nomination from Vice President Hubert Humphrey. As it is, Kennedy’s unfinished campaign is one of American history’s more intriguing “what ifs.”

To be successful, a late-starting campaign needs to feature a candidate with considerable fund-raising and organizational ability who is capable of quickly grabbing national attention. Charisma helps, as does a campaign message that can evoke widespread support. Robert Kennedy fit the bill in 1968, and there are arguably a few prominent Republicans on the sidelines this time who could mount a competitive, late-starting candidacy in 2012. These could include one of the establishment non-candidates who Republican elites pressured to enter the race earlier this year, such as Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Rep. Paul Ryan (WI), ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (although Christie has already endorsed Mitt Romney). The entry of any of these Republicans would cause waves, and because of their high profiles they would have little trouble raising money or attracting establishment support. On the other hand, if Romney gets off to a strong start in January’s opening round, then there might be pressure on the right to enlist former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to pick up the anti-establishment baton.

The long intermission next February — there are no primaries selecting delegates between Florida on Jan. 31 and Arizona and Michigan on Feb. 28 — provides a natural opening for major changes in the Republican nominating contest to take place. It gives time for active candidates to reassess their campaigns and for prospective candidates to make their move.

The main problem calendar-wise for late-starting candidates is there is often a lag time of two to three months between a primary filing deadline and the primary election itself. As a result, a candidate that jumped into the race early next February would still be too late to get his or her name on the ballot in all the primaries through early April, roughly 20 states in all. In these states, a late starter would have to be creative — “adopting” the Uncommitted line, for instance, in states where they are listed or mounting write-in campaigns in states where they are permitted.

But a late-starting candidate would be able to compete in caucus states immediately, where filing deadlines are rarely an issue. There will be fully a dozen states, plus territories, that will be holding their caucuses from Feb. 4 on. They will be offering a total of roughly 450 delegates.

And a candidate that entered the Republican contest in the wake of the Florida primary would be able to enter at least 15 primaries from April 24 on. It is a number that includes delegate-rich New York and Pennsylvania on April 24, Indiana and North Carolina on May 8, California and New Jersey on June 5 and Ohio on June 12. Taken together, this late array of primaries offers roughly 800 delegates, many of them to be awarded on a winner-take-all basis.

In addition, candidates that fall by the wayside as the primaries unfold often release their delegates, providing another significant pool for late-starting candidates to woo.

In short, the “new look” Republican nominating schedule for 2012 offers scenarios that the “front-loaded” calendars of the recent past could not. The likelihood of the usual quick knockout is reduced, while the prospect of a long slog for delegates is enhanced. And who knows, the latter could feature a late-starting candidate or two, adding another unique twist to a Republican presidential nominating campaign that has already displayed considerable fluidity.

Kristol insiste en que no es tarde para nuevos candidatos

Bill Kristol:

It's not out of the question that someone else could still present himself in mid-December to the citizens of Iowa (Hi there, Mike Huckabee! Hello, Sarah Palin!). Or, if Iowa (January 3), New Hampshire (January 10) and South Carolina (January 21) produce fragmented results, and the state of the race is disheartening to Republicans, a late January entry by another candidate isn't out of the question, either. Couldn't Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio win the January 31 Florida primary as a write-in candidate in such circumstances?

With a splintered field in a turbulent time in an Internet age, there are more possible outcomes in today's politics than are dreamt of in the philosophy of inevitability.

Convención abierta y candidato de consenso. ¿Posible?

The Washington Times:

True, it has been generations since a presidential nominating convention actually made that decision, although, admittedly, this idea pops up every four years. The last contested GOP convention that went beyond the first ballot was 1948, when Thomas Dewey was chosen on the third ballot - and went on to lose to Harry Truman. For the Democrats it was 1952, when Adlai Stevenson was chosen also on the third ballot - and went on to lose to Dwight Eisenhower. The longest was the Democratic convention of 1924 that went on for more than two weeks and took 103 ballots to nominate John Davis, who lost to Calvin Coolidge.

There may be a pattern there. As G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young point out in their insightful Dec. 6, 2007, article “What if the conventions are contested?” “It is no coincidence that brokered conventions ended after networks began to televise them. The 1952 convention is instructive. Actually settled on the first ballot when Dwight Eisenhower beat Robert Taft, the intraparty brawling that preceded the Eisenhower victory appalled thousands who watched it on TV.”

In fact, hotly contentious conventions - whether the GOP in 1912 or the riotous Democratic Chicago convention in 1968 - often augur poorly for the general election. But whether good news or bad, five odd features of this season’s GOP primary process suggest inconclusiveness.

First is the much-mentioned weak front-runner, Mitt Romney. He has consistently commanded about 25 percent in the polls. Is that a floor or a ceiling? Conservatives urgently want to nominate an undoubted and solid conservative. With Republican primary voters increasingly conservative over the last generation, it would be curious if the GOP nominated the least perceived conservative two times running - first Sen. John McCain in 2008 and then Mr. Romney in 2012.

Second, equally paramount with nominating a conservative, GOP primary voters urgently want to defeat the incumbent, and they hold that passion more powerfully than we have seen in living memory. The conviction that the incumbent is plunging the nation into soon-to-be-irreversible, statist decline is driving the voters both to want to choose the most electable candidate and to make sure they pick a candidate with the conviction and capacity to radically reverse course and re-establish traditional, conservative American values and programs.

But do those strong feeling help Mr. Romney - seen by many as the most electable - or do they hurt him because he is not seen as committed to his conservative policies? Will the wild voter preference swings for and then away from various true conservative, non-Romney candidates continue as the voters feel this election is too important to make a quick - and possibly, wrong - choice?

Third, unlike previous primaries, the candidates announced late, they are underfunded - even Mr. Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry - there is little advertising and there are smaller state campaign operations with fewer paid and volunteer staff members.

Fourth, perhaps most important, with constant cable television debates drawing very high viewerships, talk radio, Internet and social media, this is the most nationalized and earliest primary process we have ever seen.

(...) Fifth, consider also that the GOP changed its winner-take-all rules. Now, any state that holds a primary or caucus before April 1 must award its delegates on a proportional basis, rather than the winner-take-all method. This means that a front-runner with, say, a 38 percent plurality in a six-way split field will get only 38 percent of the delegates instead of 100 percent. This will keep second-tier candidates in the hunt and deny the front-runner the steamroller effect that usually delivers a de facto winner in the GOP by February.

And here is the kicker. If we do go into the August convention with no candidate holding a majority of the delegates, then the door is open to nonprimary candidates being nominated after the first inconclusive ballot. Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee or others could get in the race. Or a brilliant speech by Newt Gingrich could take the convention by storm.

Break out the Nicorettes and flavored vodkas. We could be in for a modern version of smoke-and-whiskey-filled rooms in Tampa next August.

Newsmax:

Elements within the Republican Party are dreaming of a deadlocked convention that will hand the GOP’s standard to a Jeb Bush or a Chris Christie, candidates they believe are best suited to make Barack Obama a one-term president.

Under the scenario batted around by party leaders and pundits, the top tier candidates battle it out state by state, dividing up the wins and delegates until they stumble into the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla., in late August with no winner. Deal making fails to crown any of the candidates and the field is opened up.

Former Florida Gov. Bush, New Jersey Gov. Christie or Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels gets the nomination, upsetting nearly 60 years of presidential nominating history.

“Yes, I have heard such talk from a few senior Republicans, including one officeholder,” University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato told Newsmax. “Why? They are dissatisfied with the field and hope that at a convention, a deadlock would produce a stronger nominee, such as Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, or the like---a candidate who didn't want to run but would be willing to undertake a short general election race.

“I have said the same thing to each one: This is a pipe dream with at best a tiny chance of happening.”

Regardless, the thought has piqued the interest of political correspondents, talk show hosts and the former head of the Republican National Committee Michael Steele.

(...) NBC correspondent Andrea Mitchell wondered who would carry the conservative flag if “Cain implodes.”

“Could it be Newt Gingrich? I would suggest he has so many flaws from his record that that would be a hard sell,” she said. “Is there a scenario? And you know the rules far better than anyone, Michael. Under these new rules, is there some sort of scenario where at the end of the day there could be a brokered convention – but could Jeb Bush come into it or someone else at the end of the day?”

Steele replied that for that to happen you would have “to have a scenario where you have two maybe three people going into the convention that are close in the delegate numbers.

“But what would happen in that situation is that the pressure would be on to really gravitate to one of those folks, to have a fourth person or third person come out of the blue and get the nomination would just upheave the whole thing. Because then you're having a conversation about a Jeb Bush coming in in August to run for the presidency in November.”

Se solicitan más candidatos

Jennifer Rubin escribe hoy en el Washington Post:

Another option is that someone could still get into the race. No, it’s not too late. For sake of argument, suppose Jeb Bush or New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie got dragged into the race. Does anyone doubt that either one of them could raise money, quickly rise in the polls, make a splash at debates and win one of the critical early primaries? Or, if you don’t like those choices, maybe another governor (e.g., Ohio Gov. John Kasich, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell). Perhaps one of the candidates who tested the waters and declined to run could have a change of heart, if he or she were “drafted” in some fashion.

The biggest argument for another candidate is Perry’s failure to close the deal. He’s turned in two very spotty debate performances and refused to put nettlesome issues to bed by disclaiming imprudent comments and ill-thought-out positions. He hasn’t presented any proposals, relying purely on his record (albeit a very good one) in Texas. Right now he’s collecting the lion’s share of the not-Romney votes, but if there were another not-Romney who had a solid record, was a familiar face and could present a compelling agenda, wouldn’t a lot of Perry’s support melt away?

In short, it’s a false choice that Republicans are being asked to make at this stage. It may be that they accept either Perry or Romney at some point, but they don’t have to. Not now. The only thing standing between the GOP primary electorate and a better choice is the misguided belief that there is no alternative to the current crop. Well, that and someone who is willing to make a “sacrifice”of a few months to see if he can capture the nomination and give his party a better shot at the presidency.

We just went through a weekend of tributes to the sacrifices of servicemen and women and their families (not to mention ordinary civilians caught up in an attack on America). In light of those sorts of sacrifices, it really too much to ask for one of these Republicans to give the presidential race a try? Good grief, they surely can’t imagine that they will endear themselves to Republican voters if they sit this one out and President Obama is reelected, do they?

Ocho razones para que Jeb se presente

Rich Lowry, del National Review, expone ocho razones por las que Jeb Bush debería presentarse en 2012:

(...) 1) It’s a wide-open field for a nomination that’s worth having. Rarely do you get such a convergence of a beatable incumbent president with a wide-open field to challenge him. Obama is slightly below 50 percent in the polls, with a real weakness in the middle of the country, and he’s saddled with a recovery that has yet to produce substantial job growth. Yet there is no true frontrunner in the race to challenge him. It’s hard to imagine an environment better suited for a heavyweight like Jeb to make a run.

2) 2016 is too late I. By 2016, Jeb will have been out of office ten years. No doubt he will have made many contributions to the cause in the interim, but by then his main credential — his governorship and its accomplishments — will seem like yesterday’s news. Right now he has the feel of an elder statesman of the party while his time in office is still fresh.

3) 2016 is too late II. By 2016, a bumper crop of Republican talent will be poised to storm the national stage. Marco Rubio not only will be the hot new thing out of Florida, he’ll be seasoned. Chris Christie will be ready. A host of senators and governors — freshly minted in the 2010 elections, so it’s too soon for them to run now — will be ready to go. Jeb will not be such a predominant figure in such a robust field. The crop of prospective GOP candidates this time reflects the downdraft in Republican fortunes in 2006 and 2008. Jeb would loom all the larger for it.

Continúa (...)

McKinnon: "Jeb 2016"

Mark McKinnon, el demócrata responsable de los anuncios televisivos de todos las campañas de George W. Bush desde que era Gobernador de Texas, prefiere mirar a 2016 más que a 2012, y piensa en Jeb Bush.

(...) Despite the obvious legacy issues—his last name is a four-letter word to some—the Bush brother who actually grew up wanting to be president is a true policy wonk with proven executive, crisis management, and leadership abilities, and the former Florida governor’s favorability is still high. “He’s a serious conservative, with a seriously positive case for what he wants to do for America. He’s not just a ‘Party of No’ guy,” says best-selling author John Heilemann. And Jeb cracked the door open the other day. While insisting he isn’t looking to run for president in 2012, the second Bush son said he would never say never when asked about 2016.

The first governor ever re-elected in Florida’s history, Jeb focused intensely on reform of education, the budget process, civil service, and health care. These are issues that need to be addressed on the national level. He appeals to the establishment and the Tea Party movement. He was an early backer of Marco Rubio, interestingly against the GOP establishment. And almost universally favored among Republicans in the all-important electoral state of Florida, he also has crossover appeal among Democrats and independents.

Jeb, really John Ellis Bush, is an innovative thinker and genial reformer. And he opens the GOP Big Tent wide. As an exchange student teaching in Mexico, where he met his future wife, Bush gained fluency in Spanish. His support among Hispanics is strong; he won the majority of the Florida Latino vote in 1998 and 2002. He has publicly disagreed with Arizona’s contested immigration law, and he now serves as co-chair of the new Hispanic Leadership Network, a Republican effort to attract Hispanic voter support.

While 41 was gentle, 43 tough, Jeb, or “45,” as he someday may be called, is smart. The question here: Will America see the man, or reject dynasty? And if not, there’s always “47”—George P. Bush. (...)

Rumores sobre Jeb Bush

Matt Lewis en Hot Air:

(...)Having said that, I am starting to hear rumors that Jeb is telling potential prominent supporters to “keep their powder dry,” meaning not to endorse or support any 2012 candidates until they check back with him. (...)