Giuliani se descarta

POLITICO.com:

Rudy Giuliani announced at a Long Island Association event just now that he's not running for president.

Asked by the group's president Ken Law about reports that he had sent messages to New Hampshire supporters to keep their powder dry, Giuliani joked that they must have gone missing, according to one attendee.

And he added definitively, "If it's too late for Chris Christie, it's too late for me."

It had become clear that Giuliani was not planning to run again, as some of his former and closest supporters have started moving toward Mitt Romney.

He also had an analysis of the race in which he said that Rick Perry has "the heart" of the GOP electorate, and Romney has "the head." And he noted that Perry had backed him in his own race, and that he might be partial to him - although he did not say whether he would endorse anyone, the attendee said.

Un primer indicio de que Giuliani no se presenta

POLITICO.com:

New York Rep. Michael Grimm endorsed Mitt Romney today, becoming the first in the state's congressional delegation to pick a candidate.

Grimm represents Staten Island, a far more conservative area than most New York City congressional districts. He was elected as part of the 2010 GOP wave that saw the Republicans pick up more than 60 seats, including six in blue-state New York.

Grimm is close with former Staten Island Borough President Guy Molinari, who endorsed Romney last week.

(...) But Molinari is very close to Rudy Giuliani, who campaigned extensively for Grimm last year. And while the former New York City mayor continues to say he's still deciding about a run, the moves by both men make clear that his die-hard backers see the possibility of it as essentially gone.

Hay tiempo y espacio para nuevos candidatos

Es lo que cree Walter Shapiro, uno que cuando algunos todavía no habíamos nacido ya estaba cubriendo campañas presidenciales:

This weekend in Little Rock, Bill Clinton and an all-star cast of political alumni will celebrate the twentieth anniversary of his formal entry into the 1992 presidential race. But the candidate decision that did the most to bequeath Clinton the Democratic nomination did not occur until December 20, 1991. That was when New York Governor Mario Cuomo decided not to board the chartered plane waiting at the Albany airport to whisk him to New Hampshire to file his last-minute papers to enter the first primary.

That’s right—Cuomo got to wait until late in the Christmas shopping season to decide whether to run for president. Despite the frustration of the press corps at his Hamlet on the Hudson act, Cuomo’s prospects in the February 18 New Hampshire primary were bright. As Jack Germond and Jules Witcover wrote in their chronicle of the 1992 campaign, Mad as Hell, “Mario Cuomo was not Bruce Babbitt forced to ride a bicycle across Iowa in 1987 trying to win a little press attention … Cuomo was a national figure whose campaign from the start inevitably would draw heavy television network and newspaper coverage.”

What gives this Cuomo retrospective currency is the conventional wisdom that it is already too late for Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, or even the eternally dithering Rudy Giuliani to enter the GOP race. Somehow 60 days to the New Hampshire primary was long enough back in 1992, when social media referred to chatty local TV anchors. But in an age of Fox News (launched in 1996), Facebook, Internet fund-raising, and non-stop political coverage, the new political orthodoxy is that 100 days is insufficient for a candidate unless you are Napoleon mounting a comeback. Why is it that faster-than-ever political communication automatically dictates an elongated campaign season?

(...) There is certainly an opening for another top-tier GOP contender. The press is already showing signs of boredom with the Mitt Romney versus Rick Perry smack-downs—especially if they drag on until April or May. GOP voters give off a whiff of dissatisfaction with both Perry’s competence and Romney’s chameleon history. With the erratic Newt Gingrich again scoring in double-digits in national polls and pizza magnate Herman Cain suddenly getting a burst of attention, a none-of-the-above narrative is gaining traction in the Republican Party.

(...) There is an illusion that starting early prepares a candidate to craft deft responses to attacks on weak spots in his political record or his personal life. In truth, almost every campaign scrambles when it is on the firing line. Months of campaigning did not prevent Barack Obama from flailing in 2008 when Jeremiah Wright’s sermons suddenly dominated the headlines. Back in the fall of 2000, George W. Bush, the embodiment of a tightly scripted candidate, was blindsided when the press unearthed a drunk-driving arrest in Maine. If he enters the GOP race, Christie will undoubtedly have some rocky moments, but it is questionable whether starting early would have made that much difference in how the fledgling New Jersey governor responds.

Make no mistake, some deadlines matter in presidential politics like the precise dates for getting on primary ballots. Although the entire GOP primary calendar is in flux, the best guess is that the deadline for filing for the Florida primary will be Halloween, with other early states like New Hampshire following soon after. While Henry Cabot Lodge did win the 1964 New Hampshire GOP primary on a write-in vote, resorting to that pencil-based strategy would be a daunting price for, say, Christie to pay for his indecisiveness.

The enduring truth is that weird things can happen when voters are dissatisfied with the choices they are offered in the presidential primaries. Late in the 1976 primary season, Democrats yearning for an establishment nominee like Hubert Humphrey tried to organize an ABC (Anybody But Carter) movement. As a result of these machinations, Jimmy Carter lost 10 primaries in May and June to Frank Church and Jerry Brown, two candidates who only began actively campaigning with the first crocuses of spring. The stop-Carter effort ultimately foundered, but it is an enduring reminder of the power of buyer’s remorse in presidential politics.

Every signal suggests that politics this year is as unsettled as the overall national mood. Jump-starting a campaign was certainly not a panacea for Tim Pawlenty, who might actually be an intriguing figure in the GOP race if he had entered it about now. Some year some candidate is going to reinvent the rules about starting early, which really only date back to George McGovern in 1972 and Carter in 1976.

In a 21st century media age—when images can be forged in minutes—it may matter less when you get in the presidential race than what you do when you get there. Sometimes I think that the Republicans just might nominate the first conservative who rescues a kitten from a tree while the Fox News cameras are rolling.

Giuliani envía un emisario a NH para evaluar apoyos

Associated Press:

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani dispatched a key emissary to New Hampshire on Wednesday to gauge their interest in his possible presidential bid.

One of the mayor's closest political advisers, Jake Menges, hosted private meetings with a host of key Republicans in the state, including Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas, likely gubernatorial candidate Kevin Smith, Congressman Charlie Bass and GOP activist Stephen Talarico, owner of Manchester Harley-Davidson.

"Jake said to me, 'Just keep your powder dry for another few weeks,'" Talarico told The Associated Press.

(...) Smith, a Giuilani supporter in 2008, said he met with Menges in a Manchester coffee shop Wednesday afternoon.

"They were just gauging my thoughts about whether there's room for his candidacy," Smith said. "I told them that my sense, based on the calls for (New Jersey Gov.) Chris Christie to get in, is there's still some discontentment among Republicans and there could be a spot for another candidate. That being said, time is certainly winding down."

Menges did not indicate a timeline for Giuliani's final decision.

Giuliani en el National Press Club

Aunque la mayoría de su intervención estuvo relacionada con el décimo aniversario del 11-S, el ex Alcalde de Nueva York dijo algunas cosas interesantes sobre 2012.

Da la impresión de que es improbable que se presente:

"Si creo que estamos verdaderamente desesperados, entonces puede que me presente. Es así como fui elegido Alcalde de NY... ¿Sabes cual era mi eslogan? 'No puedes hacerlo peor.'"

Es consciente de lo difícil que le resultaría ganar las primarias:

"Creo que si me presentara, tendría opciones de ganar la Presidencia... Pero lo tendría complicado para ser nominado. Soy realista y entiendo cómo funciona el sistema de primarias."

Cree que cualquiera de los favoritos republicanos podría derrotar a Obama:

"Si (Obama) continúa aferrado a ideas extremadamente irreales sobre nuestra economía y esas ideas irreales son confirmadas por el pobre rendimiento de nuestra economía, no importa que alguien sea del ala derecha, del ala centro o de ningún ala, van a derrotar a Obama porque el pueblo americano dirá, 'demos una oportunidad a otra cosa. Esto no funciona.' Si la elección fuese hora mismo, creo que el Presidente perdería contra cualquiera de los dos o tres principales republicanos que se presentan."

Continúan los esfuerzos para reclutar al candidato ideal

Wall Street Journal:

(...) "Do I think the field is complete yet? I would have thought so, but I've got to be honest. I think there could be a few more surprises," said New Hampshire Republican Party Chairman Jack Kimball.

There are few firm signs either Mr. Christie or Mr. Ryan will take the leap, but aides acknowledge the pressure. In Aspen, Colo., a few days ago, former Reagan administration official William Bennett took Mr. Ryan on a long hike, urging him to consider a presidential bid, according to people knowledgeable about the discussion.

Mr. Ryan's deficit-reduction plan has been roundly criticized by Democrats, but Republican insiders see him as the candidate with the intellectual heft to beat Mr. Obama in debates.

Mr. Christie, too, has been on the receiving end of many recent calls to get into the race. But Christie advisers have put the word out to unaligned donors and party elites in recent days that he has no plans to run.

"The intensity of the recruitment efforts has certainly increased to a new level, but nothing has changed in terms of the governor's plans," said Christie adviser Mike Du Haime.

(...) An unease also persists among big fund-raisers. "A lot of major bundlers are just kind of sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how things play out," said Ray Washburne, a top Pawlenty fund-raiser who has yet to commit to another campaign.

The challenge lies in the fact that the ideal contender, even more than normal, has to check two contradictory boxes: He or she has to appeal to the GOP's energized tea-party and social-conservative wings, while also assuring the party's elites of the ability to reach out to more moderate swing voters who usually decide general elections.

"Most people in the center-right realize that Obama is eminently beatable. Yet they don't feel that they are hearing a compelling message of how the leading Republican candidates are going to dig the country out of the economic quagmire that it's in, and they are searching for that message," said Fred Malek, a GOP fund-raiser who remains unaligned with any candidate.

There are others still in the wings. Former New York Gov. George Pataki has put out feelers in recent days, but his entry as a moderate Republican has gotten little encouragement, senior Republicans said Sunday. Rep. Peter King (R., N.Y.) said former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is still pondering a run and should decide within days.

(...) Some GOP operatives say that time may have already run out for anyone beyond Ms. Palin to enter the race. "To develop a national campaign, you have to have been in a serious planning mode for months by now," said Phil Musser, a Pawlenty adviser. (...)

Giuliani en Hannity (Fox News)

Cree que las tácticas negociadoras de los líderes republicanos del Congreso en el debate sobre el techo de la deuda están siendo "poco convincentes" y acusa a Obama de no ser un lider: "Esto es porque un Presidente no lidera. Quiero decir, republicanos, demócratas, luchando entre ellos en el Congreso... El Presidente nunca ha explicado cómo lo haría él. ¡Esto es vergonzoso! No hay plan. Esto sería como si yo cuando era Alcalde de Nueva York, dijera, 'no voy a hacer un presupuesto, dejaré al consejo municipal que lo haga'... lo ha hecho todo de ese modo. Nadie sabe qué diablos está haciendo. Cogimos a un tipo que nunca ha hecho un presupuesto y lo pusimos a manejar el mayor presupuesto del mundo. Por supuesto, lo va a fastidiar".

Sobre si se presenta o no ha dicho que decidirá a "finales de agosto, finales de septiembre".

Giuliani en State of the Union (CNN)

Parece dispuesto a presentarse si ve un hueco: "Creo que tengo el mejor historial en términos de haber hecho ya (en NY) algo similar a lo que el país necesita que se haga en este momento."

Los expertos creen que anunciará su candidatura el Día del Trabajo (el primer lunes de septiembre), y coincide con lo que ha anticipado: "Probablemente a finales de verano, podré resolverlo completamente (si me presento o no)."

Giuliani decidirá "muy pronto"

Boston Globe:

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani will decide whether to run for president “very soon,” his New Hampshire spokeswoman said today.

Giuliani will visit New Hampshire this Thursday and Friday, yet spokeswoman Alicia Preston said he is not expected to announce his plans on this trip.

“But shortly afterward, we’ll hear what his final decision is,” she said.

Giuliani will meet with a variety of interest groups in first presidential primary state. (...)

Giuliani se presenta, según el Weekly Standard

Lo afirma Bill Kristol, editor de la revista:

I'm told by two reliable sources that Rudy Giuliani intends to run for the GOP nomination for president in 2012. He may throw his hat in the ring soon.

Rudy's theory of the race: In the fall of 2007, he decided he couldn't compete with both Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire, and disastrously decided to try to pull back there and pitch his tent in Florida. This year, he'll commit everything to New Hampshire, where he thinks he has a good shot at beating Romney—whom he criticized there earlier this week. He then thinks he can beat whichever more socially conservative candidate(s) is left by winning what are still likely to be winner-take-all primaries in big states like California, New York, and New Jersey.

Rudy's message: I'm tough enough to put our fiscal house in order and to protect us from enemies abroad. The U.S. in 2012 is in bad shape—like New York in 1993. The budget crisis is as severe—and seemingly intractable—as the crime/welfare crisis was in New York then. Rudy dealt with that when people said it couldn't be done. He'll deal with this.

Isn't his abysmal 2008 campaign a disqualifier? Rudy's answer: Consider the New York parallel. Rudy lost to David Dinkins in 1989, making several unforced errors and running without a focused message. In 1993, as the streets of New York plunged into crisis, Rudy ran a disciplined campaign pledging to turn the city around. He won, and in a disciplined first term, he governed successfully.

It seems implausible that Rudy Giuliani could win the nomination. But it's an implausible year.

Rumor: Giuliani "muy cerca" de presentarse

Lo dice Jan Crawford (CBS) en su twitter:

Rudy is "very close" to jumping into the presidential race, Rep. Peter King says at a dinner in DC tonight.