Huckabee y Palin, los más temidos por los donantes de Romney en caso de una convención abierta

The Daily Caller:

Michael Steele irked fellow GOPers while serving as chairman of the Republican National Committee by speaking excitedly about the possibility of a brokered convention.

“You know, we’re going to end up with a brokered convention, a convention that’s going to mean something!” Steele reportedly told big money donors while chairman, according to the soon-to-be released book “Inside the Circus.”

Steele served as chairman of the Republican National Committee from Jan. 2009 to Jan. 2011. Under his leadership, the RNC mandated that some states no longer award all of their delegates to the winner of primary contests — which makes it harder for a candidate to lock up the nomination earlier.

The Daily Caller obtained a copy of the new eBook, authored by Mike Allen and Evan Thomas, ahead of its Tuesday release.

(...) “This guy thinks it should go all the way to the convention,” one of the businessmen is reported to have said to a Romney adviser after hearing Steele’s comments. “Isn’t that bad?”

The eBook also reports that GOP donors supporting Romney worry that a brokered convention could lead to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee or former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin being drafted onto the party’s ticket.

The authors quote a fundraiser who said “slightly more than half the delegates” to the convention “are evangelicals” who wouldn’t get behind alternative candidates like “Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush and Paul Ryan.”

“It’s probably Huckabee-Palin or Palin-Huckabee,” the fundraiser said.

The authors reported that that scenario was “enough to scare the Wall Street crowd into getting out their checkbooks” for Romney.

Palin, dispuesta a ayudar en una convención abierta

Eric Bolling (Fox News): "Si uno de los candidatos no consigue suficientes delegados, se podría ir a una convención abierta. Si eso ocurre, y alguien le dice, 'Gobernadora, estaría usted interesada,' ¿estaría usted interesada?"

Gobernadora Palin: "En primer lugar, creo que se podría llegar a eso... Si tuviera que cerrarse hoy todo el proceso de nominación, podríamos estar viendo una convención abierta... Así que creo que, dentro de unos meses, si ese es el caso, todas las posibilidades están abiertas sobre quién estará dispuesto a sacrificarse para servir a su país... Yo haría todo lo que pudiera por ayudar."

Palin: votaría por Newt en Carolina del Sur

Sarah Palin en Hannity: "Si tuviera que votar en Carolina del Sur, para que esto continuara, votaría por Newt."

Kristol insiste en que no es tarde para nuevos candidatos

Bill Kristol:

It's not out of the question that someone else could still present himself in mid-December to the citizens of Iowa (Hi there, Mike Huckabee! Hello, Sarah Palin!). Or, if Iowa (January 3), New Hampshire (January 10) and South Carolina (January 21) produce fragmented results, and the state of the race is disheartening to Republicans, a late January entry by another candidate isn't out of the question, either. Couldn't Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio win the January 31 Florida primary as a write-in candidate in such circumstances?

With a splintered field in a turbulent time in an Internet age, there are more possible outcomes in today's politics than are dreamt of in the philosophy of inevitability.

La ruta de un nuevo candidato

Nate Silver:

With the recent struggles of Herman Cain and Rick Perry, we may be in for yet another round of rumors about Republican candidates entering the presidential race late.

(...) The filing deadline has already passed in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. So a candidate who entered now could not get her name on the ballot in those states, although some states, like New Hampshire, allow for write-in votes.

However, the candidate could participate in caucuses, including the Jan. 3 caucus in Iowa and the February caucuses in Maine, Nevada, Colorado and Minnesota, which do not have rigid filing deadlines.

She would also potentially be able to participate in the primaries in Arizona and Michigan on Feb. 28, which are the next primaries following a four-week gap after Florida. Arizona’s filing deadline is not until Jan. 9. Michigan’s deadline is a little tricky. The nominal deadline is Nov. 15, but candidates can also get on the ballot by petition if they collect 10,000 voter signatures by Dec. 9.

So the path for Sarah Palin or another late-entering candidate would look something like this:

1. Devote all your attention to Iowa and perform impressively enough there — ideally by winning — that you appear to be viable.

2. Watch as the other candidates duke it out in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida and hope that no one candidate sweeps them, in which case the winner is probably on his or her way to the nomination. Maybe you can run a write-in bid if you think it can get you favorable media attention, but this would mostly be for show.

3. Consider how likely you are to win the caucuses in Maine, Nevada, Colorado and Minnesota in early February. If you think you can win them or otherwise perform well, make a strong play in one or more of the states. Otherwise spend your time in Arizona and Michigan while finding some other way to manage expectations and stay in the news.

4. Arizona and Michigan vote on Feb. 28. It is probably essential that you win at least one of these states.

If the candidate were able to accomplish each of these things, her late start would probably not be much of a barrier to her from that point onward.

(...) Still, the door is at least theoretically open for Ms. Palin, Mr. Christie or even Tim Pawlenty to run. And it won’t close anytime soon: California will not vote until June.

I don’t mean that entirely as a joke. It’s been a long time since we had a brokered convention. But if the nomination were stalemated after the first dozen or two states had voted, or if it seemed as if an “unelectable” candidate were in danger of being nominated, a candidate like Mr. Christie could potentially enter the race very late, demonstrating his popular support by performing strongly in late-voting states like California, Ohio and North Carolina and then winning the nomination as a consensus choice on the floor of the convention.

These scenarios, as fun as they would be for campaign reporters, are not at all likely. Probably, the beneficiary of all the difficulties in the conservative half of the Republican electorate will be Mr. Romney. But if the Republican electorate just does not take to Mr. Romney once the voting begins, the party will still have to find a nominee somehow.

Rumor: Palin podría reconsiderar su decisión de no presentarse

Gina Gentry Loudon en twitter:

Hot Air:

The ballot deadlines have passed in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, which means there are three possibilities.

One: It’s not true.

Two: It is true but she’s going to run third party, which means she doesn’t have to worry about primary deadlines.

Three: It’s true and she’s going to run as a Republican, having been lured back into the race by the vacuum on the right after Perry’s collapse and Cain’s sudden vulnerability. What about NH, SC, and FL, though? Well, in theory she could run hard in Iowa, win there, and then immediately start campaigning in states with later primaries while Romney, Perry, and Cain duke it out over the rest of the early states. That would be awfully risky given the momentum that Romney would have if, as expected, he wins in New Hampshire and Florida, but the media would love the suspense of watching Palin defy the conventional playbook by skipping traditional early “must wins.”

Imagine the drama if Romney steamrolled Perry and Cain and turned up on Super Tuesday with only Palin, the Iowa winner, left to stop him. Gut-check time for Republican voters: Would they opt grudgingly for Mitt on grounds that Palin might be unelectable or would they rally to Palin on “Anyone But Romney” grounds?

Palin: por qué no me presento

Explicó sus motivos en On The Record (Fox News)

Sarah Palin no se presenta

Con esta carta, la ex Gobernadora de Alaska ha dado un disgusto tremendo a sus seguidores, muchos de los cuales habían dejado sus empleos para empezar a organizar movimientos de base para respaldar una posible campaña.

October 5, 2011
Wasilla, Alaska

After much prayer and serious consideration, I have decided that I will not be seeking the 2012 GOP nomination for President of the United States. As always, my family comes first and obviously Todd and I put great consideration into family life before making this decision. When we serve, we devote ourselves to God, family and country. My decision maintains this order.

My decision is based upon a review of what common sense Conservatives and Independents have accomplished, especially over the last year. I believe that at this time I can be more effective in a decisive role to help elect other true public servants to office – from the nation’s governors to Congressional seats and the Presidency. We need to continue to actively and aggressively help those who will stop the “fundamental transformation” of our nation and instead seek the restoration of our greatness, our goodness and our constitutional republic based on the rule of law.

From the bottom of my heart I thank those who have supported me and defended my record throughout the years, and encouraged me to run for President. Know that by working together we can bring this country back – and as I’ve always said, one doesn’t need a title to help do it.

I will continue driving the discussion for freedom and free markets, including in the race for President where our candidates must embrace immediate action toward energy independence through domestic resource developments of conventional energy sources, along with renewables. We must reduce tax burdens and onerous regulations that kill American industry, and our candidates must always push to minimize government to strengthen the economy and allow the private sector to create jobs.

Those will be our priorities so Americans can be confident that a smaller, smarter government that is truly of the people, by the people, and for the people can better serve this most exceptional nation.

In the coming weeks I will help coordinate strategies to assist in replacing the President, re-taking the Senate, and maintaining the House.

Thank you again for all your support. Let’s unite to restore this country!

God bless America.

– Sarah Palin

Firma de abogados llama a estados clave en nombre de Palin

POLITICO.com:

Ken Vogel and I both have sources telling us that calls were made on behalf of a mystery candidate to various early states to determine presidential filing deadlines.

The calls were made by representatives of the law firm Baker Hostetler - a firm that employs lawyer Mark Braden, who represents Sarah PAC, her political action committee.

Hay tiempo y espacio para nuevos candidatos

Es lo que cree Walter Shapiro, uno que cuando algunos todavía no habíamos nacido ya estaba cubriendo campañas presidenciales:

This weekend in Little Rock, Bill Clinton and an all-star cast of political alumni will celebrate the twentieth anniversary of his formal entry into the 1992 presidential race. But the candidate decision that did the most to bequeath Clinton the Democratic nomination did not occur until December 20, 1991. That was when New York Governor Mario Cuomo decided not to board the chartered plane waiting at the Albany airport to whisk him to New Hampshire to file his last-minute papers to enter the first primary.

That’s right—Cuomo got to wait until late in the Christmas shopping season to decide whether to run for president. Despite the frustration of the press corps at his Hamlet on the Hudson act, Cuomo’s prospects in the February 18 New Hampshire primary were bright. As Jack Germond and Jules Witcover wrote in their chronicle of the 1992 campaign, Mad as Hell, “Mario Cuomo was not Bruce Babbitt forced to ride a bicycle across Iowa in 1987 trying to win a little press attention … Cuomo was a national figure whose campaign from the start inevitably would draw heavy television network and newspaper coverage.”

What gives this Cuomo retrospective currency is the conventional wisdom that it is already too late for Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, or even the eternally dithering Rudy Giuliani to enter the GOP race. Somehow 60 days to the New Hampshire primary was long enough back in 1992, when social media referred to chatty local TV anchors. But in an age of Fox News (launched in 1996), Facebook, Internet fund-raising, and non-stop political coverage, the new political orthodoxy is that 100 days is insufficient for a candidate unless you are Napoleon mounting a comeback. Why is it that faster-than-ever political communication automatically dictates an elongated campaign season?

(...) There is certainly an opening for another top-tier GOP contender. The press is already showing signs of boredom with the Mitt Romney versus Rick Perry smack-downs—especially if they drag on until April or May. GOP voters give off a whiff of dissatisfaction with both Perry’s competence and Romney’s chameleon history. With the erratic Newt Gingrich again scoring in double-digits in national polls and pizza magnate Herman Cain suddenly getting a burst of attention, a none-of-the-above narrative is gaining traction in the Republican Party.

(...) There is an illusion that starting early prepares a candidate to craft deft responses to attacks on weak spots in his political record or his personal life. In truth, almost every campaign scrambles when it is on the firing line. Months of campaigning did not prevent Barack Obama from flailing in 2008 when Jeremiah Wright’s sermons suddenly dominated the headlines. Back in the fall of 2000, George W. Bush, the embodiment of a tightly scripted candidate, was blindsided when the press unearthed a drunk-driving arrest in Maine. If he enters the GOP race, Christie will undoubtedly have some rocky moments, but it is questionable whether starting early would have made that much difference in how the fledgling New Jersey governor responds.

Make no mistake, some deadlines matter in presidential politics like the precise dates for getting on primary ballots. Although the entire GOP primary calendar is in flux, the best guess is that the deadline for filing for the Florida primary will be Halloween, with other early states like New Hampshire following soon after. While Henry Cabot Lodge did win the 1964 New Hampshire GOP primary on a write-in vote, resorting to that pencil-based strategy would be a daunting price for, say, Christie to pay for his indecisiveness.

The enduring truth is that weird things can happen when voters are dissatisfied with the choices they are offered in the presidential primaries. Late in the 1976 primary season, Democrats yearning for an establishment nominee like Hubert Humphrey tried to organize an ABC (Anybody But Carter) movement. As a result of these machinations, Jimmy Carter lost 10 primaries in May and June to Frank Church and Jerry Brown, two candidates who only began actively campaigning with the first crocuses of spring. The stop-Carter effort ultimately foundered, but it is an enduring reminder of the power of buyer’s remorse in presidential politics.

Every signal suggests that politics this year is as unsettled as the overall national mood. Jump-starting a campaign was certainly not a panacea for Tim Pawlenty, who might actually be an intriguing figure in the GOP race if he had entered it about now. Some year some candidate is going to reinvent the rules about starting early, which really only date back to George McGovern in 1972 and Carter in 1976.

In a 21st century media age—when images can be forged in minutes—it may matter less when you get in the presidential race than what you do when you get there. Sometimes I think that the Republicans just might nominate the first conservative who rescues a kitten from a tree while the Fox News cameras are rolling.

Límite Halloween

El 31 de octubre es la fecha límite para los nuevos candidatos que quieran competir en Florida. Naturalmente, pueden renunciar a hacerlo e inscribirse dos semanas más tarde en New Hampshire o hacerlo cuando les apetezca en Iowa. Incluso esperar hasta el año nuevo como se hacía antiguamente e inscribirse en grandes estados como NY, California, Ohio o Pennsylvania, pero no sería realista.

CNN:

Possible presidential hopefuls like former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie may have more on their minds than trick-or-treaters and costumes this Halloween.

The date usually associated with candy-seeking children this year also marks the deadline to file to get on the Florida Republican primary ballot, likely to be held on January 31, 2012. It is the first of many deadlines candidates must meet in order to appear on the ballots in various state presidential primary contests.

The filing deadline for South Carolina's GOP primary is the following day, November 1. Other states with November filing deadlines include Michigan and Missouri, which require candidates to file paperwork by the 15th and the 22nd respectively.

In New Hampshire, state law says that the filing period ends the third Friday in November, which is the 18th, but Secretary of State William Gardner has the authority to change the filing period to accommodate an earlier primary date. The Granite State was tentatively scheduled to hold its primary in February, but will likely hold its contest in January to defend its first-in-the-nation status.

December marks at least three state filing deadlines: Tennessee (the 6th), Oklahoma (the 7th), and Texas (the 12th), all of which will hold primaries on March 6, 2012, also known as Super Tuesday.

At least two other Super Tuesday states have filing deadlines in early 2012. Massachusetts has a January 6 deadline while Vermont's deadline is January 9.

Arizona, which recently moved its presidential primary to February 28, also has a January 9 candidate filing deadline.

Caucuses, which are run by state parties, do not have the same rigid filing procedures as primaries, which are usually run by the state. The Iowa Republican caucuses, for example, have no official candidate filing deadline.

Palin en On The Record (Fox News)

La Gobernadora Palin reapareció con una enorme bandera en el pecho pero no aclaró nada sobre lo suyo.

Palin, a sólo días de tomar una decisión

New York Times:

Ms. Palin, a one-time Alaska governor, is reportedly just days away from deciding whether to run for president.

In the meantime, her Twitter feed and Facebook page have gone silent for the last 10 days. Her Web site has not been updated recently. And Ms. Palin has not appeared on Fox News for a week, since before the last Republican presidential debate.

In a letter to donors late last week, Tim Crawford, the chief of her political action committee, wrote that Ms. Palin was “on the verge of making her decision of whether or not to run for office.”

Mr. Crawford noted that “someone must save our nation from this road to European socialism,” and asked for money as a way of demonstrating support if she throws her hat in the ring. He gave no clue to her decision, though he added that time is “running out.”

In fact, the political clock is ticking away. Ms. Palin now faces serious deadlines in October that, if missed, could keep her name off the presidential primary ballot. The first of those comes on Oct. 15. By that date, Ms. Palin’s election team must deliver a letter of candidacy to the secretary of state in Utah if she wants her name to appear on that state’s ballot.

Utah is by no means a critical primary state, especially in a race that features two Mormon candidates, not to mention the former governor of the state. Ms. Palin could decide that she does not need her name to appear.

But Florida comes next. By Oct. 31, that state’s Republican Party must deliver to state officials the list of candidates who are running for president there. It is a ballot she has to be on if she wants the Republican nomination.

(...) If Ms. Palin tells them she is running, aides will move quickly to incorporate a campaign committee, probably in Delaware. They will have to find a headquarters building. (An aide promised it would not be inside the Washington Beltway.) Calls will be placed to 15 or 20 wealthy supporters to begin preparing for a fund-raising blitz.

And she will have to quickly change her status at Fox, which has already forced out two other contributors (Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum) for pursuing the presidency. A spokeswoman for Fox News said Ms. Palin would be treated similarly if she makes definitive steps toward setting up a campaign.

Any of those moves would leak out quickly, and the people around Ms. Palin know it. When Ms. Palin formed her political action committee, it quickly became public knowledge.

CNN: Perry sigue en cabeza

Aunque Romney ha recortado su desventaja respecto al sondeo anterior de 12 a 7 puntos.

Gingrich está en alza.

Bachmann, hundida.

CNN/ORC International Poll:

According to the survey, which was released Monday, 28 percent of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say they support Perry as their party's presidential nominee, with Romney at 21 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is at ten percent, with Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who's making his third bid for the White House, former Godfather's Pizza CEO and radio talk show host Herman Cain, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, all at seven percent. The poll indicates that Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota is at four percent, with former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at three percent and former Utah Gov. and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman at one percent.

Palin has flirted with a bid for the GOP nomination, but the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee has not taken any concrete steps towards launching a campaign. Taking Palin out of the mix produces a similar result: 30 percent for Perry, 22 percent for Romney, 11 percent for Gingrich, and all other candidates in single digits.

The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, after last Thursday's debate in Orlando, Florida.

Romney muy fuerte y sin rival claro en NH; Paul y Huntsman, al alza

Suffolk University:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has surged among Republican voters in New Hampshire, and Rick Perry is a distant fourth, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH TV) poll of likely voters in New Hampshire’s GOP presidential primary.

Romney has opened up a 27-point lead over his nearest rival in New Hampshire, and pundits may have to rethink predictions of a two-man GOP race between Romney and Perry.

Romney (41 percent) gained 5 points since June, followed by Ron Paul (14 percent), and Jon Huntsman (10 percent). Huntsman and Paul gained 6 percent each since the last poll.

The single-digit tier consisted of Perry (8 percent), Sarah Palin (6 percent), Michele Bachmann (5 percent), and Newt Gingrich (4 percent), while Rick Santorum and Buddy Roemer each received 1 percent. Eleven percent of likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters were undecided.

Romney se coloca en cabeza en Intrade

Mitt Romney ha tomado la delantera en el mercado de predicciones Intrade.com después de los debates. Es un mano a mano entre Romney y Perry. Los demás cada vez cuentan menos para los especuladores.

Mitt Romney 39.9%
Rick Perry 37.8%
Sarah Palin 5%
Jon Huntsman 4.9%
Michele Bachmann 3.1%
Ron Paul 3%

Palin con el Tea Party en Manchester, New Hampshire

Sigue sin dar pistas sobre sus supuestas ambiciones presidenciales.

Ha repetido las líneas generales de su discurso del sábado, pero ha añadido una referencia a Romney sin mencionarlo por su nombre.

"Ahora estamos viendo que más y más gente se da cuenta de la fuerza de este movimiento de base. Y quieren involucrarse. Yo digo, de puta madre. Mejor tarde que nunca, especialmente para alguno de esos candidatos. ¿Vale?"

Sarah Palin en Indianola, Iowa (fotos)

Mucho culto a la personalidad, fenómeno fan, y referencias a 2012 en el rally de ayer en Indianola.

Palin con el Tea Party en Indianola, Iowa

Gritos de "run, Sarah, run!" se han escuchado antes, durante y después de su discurso, pero la ex Gobernadora de Alaska no ha soltado prenda sobre sus planes para 2012.

No afirma ni niega nada pero suena como un candidato, y uno muy fiero. Ha dirigido duros ataques contra Obama y la dirección del país. Ha dicho que sus "políticas fallidas y liderazgo incompetente" están lastimando al país y que la crisis es más profunda que el miedo a una recaída recesiva o la vergüenza por la degradación del crédito, y que ésta no cesará hasta que se restaure todo lo que es libre, bueno y correcto sobre América.

Ha extendido las críticas a todos los políticos profesionales de ambos partidos y a lo que ha llamado "clase política permanente", a la que ha acusado de capitalismo clientelista (favoritismos, subvenciones por amiguismo, etc.).

“Run, Sarah, run!”

Sarah Palin llegó anoche a Iowa para su esperada aparición de hoy en un rally del Tea Party.

Des Moines Register:

Minutes after Alaska’s Sarah Palin arrived at the Machine Shed Restaurant in Urbandale tonight, the crowd of a couple hundred started up a chant of “Run, Sarah, run!”

Palin beamed, then asked Iowans about themselves as she shook hands and posed for photographs.

The possible presidential candidate didn’t make a speech and left for her Des Moines hotel with her husband, Todd, about half an hour after she arrived.

When a reporter asked Palin what she thinks about the current GOP competitors, she answered: “Happy with the field of candidates. I always think that there’s room for more, though, because spirited debate and more competition will allow an even better discourse and more rigorous discourse that the public deserves.”

Podéis seguir el rally del Tea Party en directo aquí. Llueve en Indianola. Está previsto que Palin hable a la 1:15 pm hora central.