Romney reunió a más de 5,000 en San Diego

Mitt Romney reunió ayer a más de 5,000 personas en el parque Balboa de San Diego. Lo destaco por ser la mayor multitud que concentra en lo que lleva de campaña. No es extraño que haya sido en San Diego. La segunda ciudad más poblada de California, situada junto a la frontera de Tijuana, México, es un histórico bastión del GOP, cuna de políticos republicanos como Pete Wilson o Duncan Hunter, y el lugar elegido por Reagan para cerrar todas sus campañas electorales (para Gobernador y para Presidente).

Sus blancos anglosajones son más derechistas, puede que por la proximidad de la frontera, y es menos diversa y más tradicional que otras grandes ciudades californianas como Los Angeles, San Francisco u Oakland. Hay muchos hispanos (una cuarta parte de la población del centro urbano) pero muy pocos negros (apenas un 6%) tratándose de una ciudad de millón y medio de habitantes. Y sus suburbios, sitios como La Jolla (donde el propio Romney tiene una casa), Del Mar, Poway o Rancho Bernardo, albergan a blancos de clases muy altas y a familias de militares retirados.

Si inventáramos un estado al sur de Los Angeles, una California del Sur, que incluiría los conservadores San Diego y Orange, el segundo y tercer condados más poblados de California, y el quinto y sexto condados más poblados de toda la Unión,  sería uno de los estados más leales al GOP y le otorgaría unos cuantos votos electorales que al juntarlo con Los Angeles, San Francisco y la costa del Norte, se evaporan.

Chicago no encuentra un buen eslogan esta vez

The Hill:

President Obama’s campaign has yet to find a clear 2012 reelection slogan that carries the heft of 2008’s “Change You Can Believe In,” raising worries among his supporters — and hopes among Republicans — that he is having trouble articulating a concise case for a second term.

“It’s a problem because in 2008 he had an absolute winner of a slogan in ‘hope and change,’” said Tobe Berkovitz, a Boston University professor and expert on political advertising. “It said it all, and the things that he has tried so far this time haven’t worked in the same way.”

Berkovitz is not sure that the Obama team can conjure something so effective this time around, and suggests the campaign is “struggling to find a core message.”

Obama formally launched his campaign this month with the message of “Forward,” but one senior Democratic Party official told The Hill that people who thought that would be the campaign’s lasting official slogan should “stay tuned.”

Obama at various times over the past year has taken “Winning the Future,” “A Fair Shot,” “An America Built to Last,” and “We Can’t Wait” for test drives, but none has found lasting traction. Vice President Biden has suggested one possible bumper sticker slogan: “GM’s alive; bin Laden’s dead.”

The president’s Twitter feed earlier this week featured a picture of him throwing a football at Chicago’s Soldier Field along with the words “Clear eyes, full hearts.” The slogan concludes with “can’t lose” and is borrowed from the TV show “Friday Night Lights.” It has been adopted as a semi-official rallying call by Obama loyalists, and can be seen displayed on walls—and a chalkboard or two —around the reelection team’s Windy City headquarters.

At rallies and fundraisers this month, Obama insisted that this bid still incorporates the foundational themes of his successful 2008 quest.

“If people ask you what this campaign is about, you tell them, it’s still about hope,” Obama told supporters at a rally in Columbus earlier this month. “You tell them it’s still about change.”

Jen Psaki, who served as deputy communications director in the Obama White House and as a press secretary during the 2008 campaign, sought to reinforce the message of continuity.

She said that although “we’re at a different time,” it was nonetheless the case that Obama is “still the person arguing that we can bring about change.”

But Pete Snyder, the chairman of the Republican Virginia Victory 2012 group, said the message isn’t working, equating Obama’s current slogan to the ignominious attempt by Coca Cola to introduce “New Coke” in the 1980s.

“It’s rather interesting that ‘Forward’ appears to be 100 percent about the past,” Snyder said. “If you go to any Obama event now they’re playing the same music from 2008 and trying to gin up the same vibe. It’s like a bunch of aging hippies looking for that old time feeling.”

Presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney faces his own challenges on messaging, however.

Perhaps the most memorable slogan Romney’s team has come up with so far is “Obama Isn’t Working”, a barely disguised co-option of a famous poster that helped British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher ascend to the premiership of her country a generation ago.

Romney seems to have settled on “Believe in America” as an overarching slogan, but his search has also included other options, like “More jobs, less government.”

Republican consultant Kim Alfano argued that Romney has, for the moment, foundation enough simply by virtue of being the alternative to the president.

“Later in the campaign, he needs to give voters more,” she said. “But his message right now simply has to be ‘I’m not Barack Obama.’”

Obama faces difficulties on several fronts in trying to conjure a new message. 
The nation’s continuing economic troubles make it virtually impossible to run on a message as unambiguously optimistic as President Reagan’s 1984 “Morning in America” ad.

More broadly, the mere fact that Obama now has a record of both achievements and disappointments, makes him less of a blank canvas onto which voters can project their own desires.

“Forward” dominates Obama’s headquarters and the merchandise — and Democrats insist it will be the primary slogan during the campaign, even if it is augmented.

“The country has a decision to be made between going forward or going back,” the Democratic official said. “The more we thought about it, [“Forward”] is the right frame for the discussion we’re having with the American voters.”

La secuela de Hope and Change

John Heilemann ha escrito en la revista New York un reportaje de ocho páginas absolutamente imprescindible sobre los entresijos de Team Obama, con entrevistas a David Plouffe y Jim Messina: 

David Plouffe sits in his White House office, just a few steps from the Oval, staring at an oversize map of these United States. It’s late afternoon on May 9, two hours after Barack Obama’s declaration that his evolution on gay marriage has reached its terminus. The president is down the hall and on the phone, discussing his decision’s theological implications with several prominent African-American pastors—while Plouffe is being queried about its political dimensions by a querulous Caucasian reporter. The map at which Plouffe is gazing isn’t the electoral kind with the states shaded blue and red; as a federal employee, he notes wryly, “I’m not permitted to have one on the wall.” But given the way his head is hardwired, I’m pretty sure Plouffe is seeing those colors regardless.

The question of whether Obama’s new stance narrows or widens his path to victory in November is one that Plouffe and his comrades have been agonizing over since early this year, when their boss returned from vacation and told them he wanted to take the plunge. The possible political benefits are clear: jazzing up young voters, ginning up gay dollars. As are the costs: turning off socially conservative Democrats and independents, particularly in four pivotal swing states—Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia. But as to the net effect of the announcement on Obama’s ability to accumulate 270 electoral votes, his adjutants are unable to render a firm verdict. “I think there is more upside potential than downside potential,” Plouffe says. “But is there a scenario where it’s harder? Yes.” ... Continúa.

Romney alcanzará hoy los 1,144 delegados

The Washington Post:

For so long, he was the putative front-runner, the nominal front-runner, the weak front-runner. Then he became the all-but-certain nominee. And by Tuesday night, he’ll be able to ditch those modifiers.

Willard Mitt Romney is about to do what his father didn’t and no one in his church ever has. With Tuesday’s Texas primary, he is poised to secure the 1,144 delegates required to clinch the Republican presidential nomination at the party’s August convention.

It seems like forever ago that Rick Santorum and Newt Ging­rich were waving Etch a Sketches at their rallies in a last-ditch bid to stop Romney’s march to the nomination. The long slog of primaries effectively ended on April 3 with Romney’s victory in Wisconsin. Three weeks after that, the former Massachusetts governor returned to New Hampshire, where he launched his campaign on a windswept farm one year ago this week, to claim the mantle of nominee.

But it should become official on Tuesday, when Texas voters are expected to push Romney over the finish line in the delegate race. And with that, the Republican Party will have selected an unlikely standard-bearer for 2012: a New Englander in a party rooted in the South; a man of moderate temperament in a party fueled by hot rhetoric; a Mormon in a party guided by evangelical Christians; a flip-flopper in a party that demands ideological purity.

(...) After a year of criticism that he didn’t have the strength or shrewdness to take on President Obama, Romney has emerged from the bruising primary as a formidable adversary. With the race firmly in general-election mode, he is a more disciplined campaigner than he was a few months ago and has pulled even with Obama in many national and swing-state polls.

However reluctantly they may have settled on Romney, most Republicans are now rallying behind him. On Monday, about 5,000 people — one of the largest crowds of his campaign — turned out to see him pay tribute to veterans in San Diego.

Romney started sensing that enthusiasm on a cold morning three days after Christmas. He awoke in Muscatine, Iowa, and headed to a coffee shop for a quick campaign stop. It was before dawn, but his supporters had filled the cafe, snaked down a hallway and lined up in the street. Romney’s top strategist, Stuart Stevens, said he overheard a woman telling her child, “We’re here to see the next president.”

For a campaign used to having to place robo-calls and blast out e-mails to generate a crowd, this was a shock. A few hours later in Clinton, Iowa, another shock: So many people turned out to see Romney give his stump speech at Homer’s Deli & Sweetheart Bakery that he gave a second speech at Rastrelli’s, an Italian restaurant across the street.

“What a crowd! What a welcome!” Romney gushed, a little bewildered. “This response in Clinton comes as a bit of a surprise, I have to tell you.”

Now, five months later, Romney is set to make history as the first Mormon to become a major party’s presidential nominee. At age 65, he has finally achieved what his hero — his father, George — did not.

Romney conmemora el Memorial Day

El Gobernador Mitt Romney ha escogido el Museo y Centro Memorial de Veteranos de San Diego, en California, para rendir tributo a los caídos. Ha estado acompañado por el Senador John McCain.

Obama conmemora el Memorial Day

El Presidente Barack Obama ha rendido homenaje a los caídos en el Cementerio Nacional de Arlington, al otro lado del río Potomac, con la tradicional ofrenda floral en la Tumba del Soldado Desconocido y un breve discurso institucional en el Memorial Amphitheater que ha aprovechado para recordar que "por primera vez en nueve años, nuestros soldados ya no están luchando y muriendo en Iraq."

Memorial Day

Último lunes de mayo. El Día de los Caídos.

16: Gingrich le da un consejo a O'Malley

Ayer en Meet The Press (NBC), Newt Gingrich le dio un consejo al Gobernador Martin O'Malley, de Maryland, si piensa presentarse a Presidente en 2016: "Recauda mucho dinero."

Gingrich dijo que el dinero es "un problema de nivel básico" en lo que considera "un proceso brutal," y aconsejó a O'Malley que "tienes que estar preparado y, en segundo lugar, entender que pasarás dos o tres años en la carretera."

El Gobernador de Maryland es el actual presidente de la Democratic Governors Association y suena mucho como posible candidato para 2016.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Ferris Bueller, un héroe americano

Chicago descubre que la cosa es seria

BuzzFeed:

Two difficult weeks for President Obama have shaken the overwhelming confidence of his campaign in Chicago and of Democratic leaders in Washington, and prompted a depressing realization: This is, at best, 2004, not 1996. At worst it's 1992.

Democrats had taken comfort for months in the Republican Party’s seeming inability to get behind Mitt Romney, Obama’s healthy lead in the polls, and equally healthy job growth. And for a few, fleeting, moments, Democrats thought the election might just be easy. But Republican division appears to have been merely an artifact of primary politics, and Mitt Romney has proved a consistent, if unglamorous campaigner.

And this week, amid poor economic indicators and continuing voter frustration, Democrats returned to the harsh reality that this election is going to be anything but a walk in the park.

“There was this sense maybe a month or two ago that Obama was really riding high — that he had gotten his base behind him and the economy was doing better and it had this Clinton vs. Bob Dole 1996 feeling — that he was going to cruise,” said one 2008 Obama aide who does not work for this year’s campaign. “And now it feels like it’s going to be really tough — a 2004 race.”

Indeed the campaign is shaping up to be a close-combat battle for one percent of swing voters in a few hundred precincts across three or four states.

That’s not to say the Obama campaign hasn’t been preparing for a tough fight — they have — but they’ve also adopted a confident, and at times arrogant, attitude toward their opponent.

From naming their elevators after cars (Cadillac I and Cadillac II) to private conversations with reporters, the campaign has rarely taken Romney seriously, focusing their efforts on mitigating the host of electoral wildcards like the economy.

Now, nobody’s laughing.

Moreover, a campaign that two months ago seemed infallible has proven to be very capable of making mistakes. Obama’s aides were taken aback when Vice President Joe Biden publicly backed same sex marriage — and spent a week punishing him for speaking out in the press. Long preparation for attacks on Romney’s time at Bain Capital, aimed at changing the narrative, nevertheless left them flat-footed when Republicans (and even a few Democrats) counter-attacked. Romney, who stumbled into the Republican nomination, scored his first tactical victory of the general election and further shored up the Republican base in the process.

“The attacks on Bain have the consequence of seeming to unite the party behind Romney, and that makes this attack perhaps a little clumsy,” said the former Obama aide.

Chris Lehane, a former Clinton White House official and Democratic political operative, cast the past two weeks as the establishment of the “natural waterline” in the presidential race.

“The polls are reflecting where the country is — a 47-47, 48-48 country,” he said, noting the similarity to the environment George W. Bush faced for reelection. “It took Romney a while to solidify his support, but if Romney really won Iowa, won South Carolina, this is where the race would have been in February and where we’d be through the fall.”

El recall del Gobernador de Wisconsin y su impacto en noviembre

The Washington Post:

[Republican Wisconsin Gov. Scott] Walker made national headlines last year when he eliminated most collective-bargaining rights for public employee unions, triggering huge protests. The fight put friends, neighbors and family members on opposite sides and left the state as polarized as any in the nation. It will culminate in next month’s recall election, only the third for a sitting governor in U.S. history.

But there is more at stake on June 5 than the question of whether Walker remains in office or is replaced by Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. To Bradtke, saving Walker’s job is a crucial step toward making Wisconsin a competitive battleground in November and electing a Republican president who deals with budgetary issues nationally the way Walker has in Wisconsin.

The recall contest “is the second most important election in the country this year,” he said.

(...) At first blush, Wisconsin may look daunting for Romney. The state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan three decades ago. But that is a deceptive indicator of the state’s politics overall. Four years ago, Barack Obama coasted to victory here by a margin of 14 points, but George W. Bush nearly won the state in 2000 and 2004. And Republicans scored major victories in 2010, taking over the governor’s office and a Senate seat.

Karl Rove, Bush’s top political adviser in both those campaigns, argues that the results of Walker’s recall election and the margin of the vote will offer the first genuine clues as to whether Wisconsin’s political environment is similar to four years ago or has reverted to the nail-biter status of 2000 and 2004. “This will give a very clear indication of whether Wisconsin and the industrial Midwest will be up for grabs this year,” Rove said.

Mike Tate, the Wisconsin Democratic chairman, said he remains confident the grass-roots energy that triggered the recall can carry Barrett to victory. But he does not need to wait for the results of the recall election to predict that the state will be a battleground this fall, despite what happened here in 2008.

“I think this is Kerry-Bush Wisconsin ’04,” he said, referring to the presidential contest that ended up with Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) winning the state by just two-tenths of a percentage point — 11,000 votes out of 3 million cast.

“This electorate was never as blue as it was in ’08 and never as red as it was in ’10,” Tate added. “Those were dynamic swings that were subject to national momentum. This is now and I think will remain a state that is very, very closely divided.”

(...) Republicans have treated the recall election as if it were part of its national effort in 2012. The Republican Governors Association has spent more than $8 million since March. Walker has been or will be joined on the campaign trail by a string of fellow governors, including Virginia Gov. Robert F. McDonnell, the association’s chairman; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the group’s vice chairman; Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal; South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley; and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty.

The Wisconsin Republican Party, with assistance from the Republican National Committee, has made more than 2.5 million calls identifying voters. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, a former Wisconsin Republican chairman, said the party has “done more work in this state than in any state in the country. That’s all going to help us in November.”

The Democratic Governors Association has spent more than $3 million to help Barrett. But in contrast with the GOP effort, the past two weeks have produced grumbling that national Democrats are not doing enough to help defeat Walker. As a result, the Democratic National Committee sent out a fundraising appeal for Barrett and President Obama’s campaign publicly announced that it has invested about $1 million in its grass-roots organization in the state that can be tapped for Barrett on June 5.

Tate argued that the race will turn on who can get their voters to the polls in a state where undecided voters are only a tiny percentage of the electorate. If Barrett was to win, it would be a significant blow to the GOP. But Democrats recognize the implications for November of a clear win for Walker.

Many national Democrats, including some Obama advisers and some national union officials, were unenthusiastic about trying to recall Walker this year. They saw Walker as weakened by the political turbulence he touched off and therefore someone who would be vulnerable in a 2014 reelection campaign. They also worried that a recall campaign five months before the November election would be a hugely costly undertaking. They feared that it could leave their forces exhausted and, if Walker were to win, demoralized heading into November.

* Enlace relacionado: Lo que hay en juego en Wisconsin

Hay 7 estados clave

Para Associated Press:

President Barack Obama faces new warning signs in a once-promising Southern state and typically Democratic-voting Midwestern states roughly five months before the election even as he benefits nationally from encouraging economic news.

(...) If the election were today, Obama would likely win 247 electoral votes to Romney's 206, according to an Associated Press analysis of polls, ad spending and key developments in states, along with interviews with more than a dozen Republican and Democratic strategists both inside and outside of the two campaigns.

Seven states, offering a combined 85 electoral votes, are viewed as too close to give either candidate a meaningful advantage: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.

"As of today, the advantage still lies with the president, but there is a long and hard road ahead in this election," said Tad Devine, who was a top strategist to Democratic presidential candidates Al Gore and John Kerry but isn't directly involved in this year's race.

(...) The race is expected to be close, and the past six weeks have been volatile.

North Carolina is a case in point.

Obama announced his support for gay marriage on May 9, one day after 60 percent of North Carolina voters approved a constitutional ban. "That issue definitely hurts him down there," said veteran Republican presidential campaign strategist Charlie Black, a top aide to 2008 nominee McCain. Black's not directly involved in this year's race but is an informal adviser to Romney.

North Carolina's high African American and young voter population, keys to Obama's 2008 wins there, give him the edge, aides say. And the president so far has spent heavily there, $2.7 million on television, according to reports provided to the AP.
But Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue gave Republicans an opening by not seeking re-election this year. And union leaders, a key Democratic constituency, are upset that this summer's Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., is being held in a state where union rights are weak.

In Wisconsin, embattled Republican Gov. Scott Walker's improving fortunes as a contentious June 5 recall election approaches could alter that state's landscape. Walker, who sparked mass protests by signing anti-union legislation last year, has pulled narrowly ahead of Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in recent polls.
If Walker survives, Romney aides say they have a real chance to carry Wisconsin, which no Republican has done since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

"I don't think there's been any better dress rehearsal for a presidential election than what's going on in Wisconsin right now," said Rich Beeson, political director for the former Massachusetts governor.

Indeed, the Wisconsin recall could signal a GOP shift in an arc of states from Iowa to Pennsylvania that have reliably voted Democratic in presidential elections for a generation.

"Whether Walker wins or doesn't is going to be a big indicator of how Wisconsin goes, and how the whole upper Midwest goes," said Iowa's Republican Gov. Terry Branstad.

Romney has signaled plans to contest Iowa, where Obama's 2008 caucus win propelled him to the Democratic nomination. Romney also sees opportunity in his native Michigan, where Democratic presidential candidates have won since 1988.

Bright spots are developing for Obama, too.

Public polls this month showed the president narrowly ahead in Virginia, a Southern state Republicans had carried nine times before Obama won it in 2008. Obama's advantage among Latino voters is moving New Mexico his way. Neither campaign nor the super PACs have advertised there, despite close finishes in 2000 and 2004.

(...) Obama has had an edge in getting out his message. For nearly two months, his campaign has aired spots across 11 states, heaviest in Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Virginia, according to the ad-tracking reports.

Romney has only been airing ads for two weeks in four states. But super PACs that support him have helped shave Obama's advertising edge, airing $10 million in ads across 10 states.

Obama aides point to an edge in state-by-state organizing that could be the deciding factor in a close election. While Romney is quickly arranging with the Republican National Committee to deploy staff to various battlegrounds, Obama's campaign has been up and running for years.

Said Democratic strategist Devine: "The president and his campaign have a real and potentially decisive advantage on the ground."

El mayor fan de Romney

Jim Wilson, un vendedor de seguros jubilado de Virginia, recorre el país con su camioneta haciendo campaña a favor de Mitt Romney. Desde el verano pasado, ha recorrido más de 40,000 millas siguiendo al candidato, visitado 15 estados, y participado en 150 eventos de campaña.

¿Mala campaña o mala economía?

En el conservador The Washington Free Beacon creen que las dificultades de Obama en el último mes se deben a errores propios y a una campaña mal llevada:

We are rapidly approaching the moment at which Washington reevaluates the Obama campaign’s reputation for competence and expertise. Every week, one or several of Obama’s surrogates trip over their own words; every day, Jim Messina and David Plouffe and David Axelrod must scratch their heads in wonder at the mess they are creating. One gaffe is an isolated event. Two is an embarrassment. But three or more form a pattern, one that is damaging not only Obama’s precarious chances for reelection but also the fortunes of the Democratic Party.

The most recent trouble arrived last Sunday in the person of Newark Mayor Cory Booker, who went fantastically off message when he said his fellow Democrats’ attacks on Mitt Romney’s background in private equity are “nauseating.” The Obama for America hazardous waste disposal team leapt into action, forcing Booker to record a hostage-video-like recantation of his comments by the end of the day. It was too late, though. Booker had tested the waters of intra-Democrat dissent and had found they were warm. Dianne Feinstein, Chris Coons, Steve Rattner, Ed Rendell, Artur Davis, Harold Ford Jr., Mark Warner, and Joe Manchin all followed him in.

What Obama intended as an attack on the business practices of Bain Capital transmogrified into a debate over the fairness of that attack. The press hates hypocrites, and it did not take much digging to report that Obama raised more from private equity in the 2008 cycle than any other candidate, and that the president’s negative ad buy went up on the very day he held a $35,800 per plate fundraised in New York City with the president of private equity firm Blackstone.

(...)  Obama may spend close to a billion dollars demonizing Bain, only to find that when the national exit poll comes out the night of November 6, “private equity” will not rank at the top of the public’s priorities. There is also a larger danger with shifting the focus of the campaign to such ancillary topics as whether private equity is good or bad: When you run a tactical campaign that targets the news cycle, you run the risk of having the attacks backfire. That is exactly what happened in the case of Booker, and what has happened in other cases as well.

(...) In February, the president’s Chicago team jettisoned the political identity Obama had been building for years. He had already turned off independents by outsourcing legislation to the left-liberals in Congress in 2009, ignoring the bright flashing neon DANGER sign that was Scott Brown’s victory in 2010, and waiting until the last minute to release an economic plan that had no chance of passing in 2011. But it was not until the New York Times reported that Obama had reversed his position on raising money for the Super PACs he had once called a “threat to our democracy” that the bloom truly came off the New Politics rose.

This purported reformer was a classic politician who broke promises and compromised ideals in a relentless quest for cash. Lacking a popular record of accomplishment, and having betrayed his reputation for youthful, sunny, bipartisan Hope and Change, Obama had no other choice but to run a negative campaign in which he tried to paint the alternative candidate as too frightening to govern. So here we are.

(...) The “war on women” message was conceived as a way to frighten all the single ladies into turning out for Obama in the fall. But that narrative quickly collapsed when Democratic strategist Hilary Rosen appeared on CNN in April and proclaimed that Ann Romney had not worked “a day in her life,” a remarkably stupid attack on stay-at-home mothers that Obama Super PAC donor Bill Maher “explained” by saying, “What she meant to say, I think, was that Ann Romney has never gotten her ass out of the house to work.”

America was thus treated to the spectacle of the president, his wife, and the vice president all defending Ann Romney’s honor, and of the White House press secretary pretending that he did not know the well connected Democratic player who had stepped on the campaign’s message. Making matters worse, the Free Beacon revealed that both the White House and Senate Democrats pay female staffers less than male ones.

Joe Biden’s May 6 appearance on Meet the Press turned into a similar disaster when the vice president said he was “absolutely comfortable” with same-sex marriage. That put Biden at odds with his boss, who at that time opposed “men marrying men, women marrying women.” Education Secretary Arne Duncan sided with Biden the next morning. Soon the media wanted to know whether Obama agreed with his subordinates. It was a treat to watch the condescending and preening White House press secretary being pummeled for 21 minutes with questions he could not answer because his bosses at the White House and at the campaign hadn’t the faintest clue of what to do.

Here, too, money was the foremost concern. Major fundraisers in the LGBT community were threatening to withhold cash if Obama did not endorse gay marriage. Jay Carney could not dodge press inquiries forever. ABC correspondent Robin Roberts was rushed from New York to D.C., where the president informed her that Sasha and Malia had helped him evolve into a supporter of same-sex marriage. The timing could not have been worse. The interview aired the day after North Carolina, which had been a swing state and where the Democrats will hold their convention in September, banned gay marriage and civil unions with 61 percent of the vote. Team Obama, however, managed to tell reporters—somehow while keeping a straight face—that they had been planning such a shift all along. The public doesn’t buy it.

Por contra, en el liberal The New Yorker creen que la culpa de los problemas de Obama está solo en la mala economía:

In attempting to rally the base and raise money, Obama has moved from one issue to another over the past few weeks. Surely, he needs to articulate a clearer vision of where he intends to take the country and how he intends to kick-start a slowing economy. But just because Joe Biden can’t keep quiet and Corey Booker and Steve Rattner object to attacks on Romney’s record at Bain Capital, it doesn’t mean that Obama’s campaign is imploding. Biden is Biden. Seizing an early opportunity to try and define the presumptive G.O.P. candidate as an out-of-touch rich guy makes strategic sense—even if it causes some dissension in the Wall Street wing of the Democratic Party.

Much of what is happening in the media has nothing to do with the President’s I.Q., or with poor old Joe Biden, or with the missteps of David Axelrod, Jim Messina, and the rest of Obama’s campaign Rottweilers out in Chicago. It is about commentators catching up with the polling numbers and the economic data, which have been indicating for some time that this is going to be a very close race. Having largely written off Romney’s chances in the first few months of this year, the pundits now have to explain why he is suddenly leading Obama in some polls and running very close in others. One obvious, but not necessarily accurate, explanation is that Obama is screwing up.

I ran through some polling data last week. Several surveys published this week confirm it is a dangerous time to be running for reelection. According to TPM’s poll tracker, almost two thirds of Americans still believe the country is on the wrong track, and according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, more than four in five voters think the economy isn’t in good shape. Just sixteen per cent of respondents said they personally are better off than when Obama took office: thirty per cent say they are in worse shape.

In circumstances such as these, virtually any incumbent would be facing a tough reelection race, and Obama is no exception. For several months, though, the internecine warfare of the G.O.P. primary and a sharp drop in the unemployment rate, which raised hopes that the economic slump might finally be coming to an end, obscured the picture. It is the fading of these factors, rather than any major stumbles on Team Obama’s part, that explain why Mitt Romney is smiling these days.

The Politico story gives Romney credit for focussing on the economy and playing to his strengths, but that is nothing new. He has been trying to do that all along. A few months back, when the unemployment rate was falling and things appeared to be looking up, his message that Obama doesn’t know what he is doing didn’t resonate. Now it does—even though, as I pointed out yesterday, much of what he is saying is guff. Fifty-five per cent of respondents to the ABC News/WaPo poll said they disapprove of the President’s handling of the economy—a finding that is mirrored consistently in other surveys.

Attacking Romney’s record at Bain Capital will serve to reinforce doubts about his job-creation skills. But they won’t do much to change people’s opinions of the President’s competence as an economic manager. On this front, the critics of his campaign have a point. Rather than simply targeting Romney, the White House needs to be much more forceful in defending its economic record over the past few years, and in laying out proposals to create more jobs. A good place to start would be the American Jobs Act of 2011, large parts of which the Republicans in Congress refused to pass. Here’s a little example the President should be emphasizing in speeches and campaign ads: if the G.O.P. had enacted the whole of the package, tens of thousands of teachers who were laid off by cash-strapped states would still have their positions.

All sides agree that the election will come down to the economy. If Obama pushes a coherent message on jobs and prosperity, one that combines a critique of Romney and the G.O.P. with a positive vision for his second term, the odd slipup here or there won’t matter very much—not nearly as much as how the next few months of economic statistics come in. Most voters don’t read Politico, or TPM, or follow Twitter all day. They will judge Obama based upon their overall impression of his record, and on the basis of how much they trust him compared to his rival.

Romney se reunió con Rand Paul

National Review:

Sources close to Senator Rand Paul tell National Review Online that Paul and Mitt Romney had a private meeting on Wednesday. Details of the topics discussed are hazy, but Paul — the son of Texas congressman (and presidential candidate) Ron Paul — reportedly found the meeting productive.

The one-on-one conversation in the nation’s capital lasted 30 minutes. Sources say the tone was cordial but it wasn’t meant to be an exchange of pleasantries. The Kentucky Republican focused his questions on policy.

(...) For now, there’s no word from Paul World beyond that; no word on whether Romney sought an endorsement or brokered a deal regarding the Tampa convention. But it’s clear Romney is intent on wooing Senator Paul, who has been touted by his father’s aides as a potential presidential candidate down the road.

Charlie Cook ve una elección muy igualada

Charlie Cook:

All signs point to a presidential race that will be very tight. Neither candidate seems capable of pulling away.

Not much in the just-released NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conflicts with the story line that we’re going to see a lot of close races this fall. Democratic pollster Peter Hart and Republican poll-taker Bill McInturff found that 48 percent of the 1,000 American adults interviewed (including a subsample of cell-phone users) approve of the job that President Obama has done. This percentage is 2 points short of the 50 percent approval rating that would signal he is a favorite for reelection. A rating below 46 percent suggests that a president is toast. Obama is right in the middle—in the 47 percent to 49 percent zone—suggesting an equal chance of winning or losing.

One source of good news for Democrats is that Obama draws a 51 percent approval rating on foreign policy; the bad news is that voters don’t seem likely to vote on foreign-policy matters this year. Conversely, the president got his worst approval rating on the economy: Just 43 percent approve of his handling of economic matters while 52 percent disapprove. Unfortunately for Democrats, the economy is the issue that does seem to be of paramount importance to voters.

(...) In terms of the presidential trial-heat figures, among registered voters, Obama leads Romney by 4 percentage points: 47 percent to 43 percent, with 11 percent saying they are unsure. Well-known and well-defined incumbents generally draw fewer undecided voters in the end than lesser-defined challengers do, so for incumbents, what you see is what you get. Generally, though, an incumbent with 49 or 50 percent will fall over the finish line first. Final polls of 47 or 48 percent signal more trouble.

Gallup (1948-2004)

Ahora que Gallup lleva ya más de un mes sondeando la intención de voto de Obama y Romney, rescato este post que contiene datos de la evolución de la intención de voto en todas las elecciones desde 1948 hasta 2004. La igualdad de este año recuerda mucho a la de 2004.

El favorito de los insiders

The Washington Post le dedica hoy un perfil de cuatro páginas al Senador Rob Portman. Cuando eso ocurre es que los rumores sobre su favoritismo para ser el running-mate de Romney, van en serio.

He had received a phone call just that morning from a supporter furious about yet another newspaper story suggesting that he was boring. It was not the best of days for Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, a man thought to be on Mitt Romney’s list of possible running mates. “I told my staff that I’m so boring that I didn’t even know I was boring,” he said at a large conference table, surrounded by several expressionless members of his staff.

He calmly turned and smiled at them.

The first rule for anyone interested in becoming a vice presidential nominee is that you can’t appear to be interested in becoming a vice presidential nominee. A corollary is that you should never seem to be very upset over criticism about your perceived lack of charisma or any other quality that might aid a vice presidential nominee, lest you look interested in becoming a vice presidential nominee. The whole pursuit is a real headache.

“However the press wants to characterize it is fine,” Portman said, and smiled again.

For weeks, Portman’s name has been among those at the top of Republican vice presidential possibilities. For weeks, ever since he played a vital role in aiding Romney narrowly beat Rick Santorum in the Ohio primary, the buzz about Portman’s status in the vice presidential sweepstakes has been intense, much of it fueled by theories about how he might help Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee, carry this critical swing state against President Obama...  Continúa.

El ruido en torno a Portman ha aumentado desde que la semana pasada National Journal reveló que los insiders republicanos y demócratas de la capital lo ven como el candidato más sólido.

Ohio GOP Sen. Rob Portman has been atop all the lists.

One of the latest appeared in National Journal magazine. When it asked a panel of Democratic and Republican "Congressional Insiders"  which of the most-talked-about vice presidential selections in Congress would make the best pick, Portman won by a landslide.

Fifty-eight percent of Democrats the magazine queried selected Portman, as did 50 percent of Republicans.

One Democrat called him "a solid, well-vetted family man who can sell to Middle America."

"Smart, seasoned guy from a swing state; carries a lot of Bush-era fiscal baggage, though," said another.

Republican described him as a "safe pick" with "the most proven record of backbone and rhetorical restraint," and hypothesized that "he could likely deliver Ohio."

10 posibles running-mates de Romney (Parte II)

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie

Bottom Line Republicans would love to see him debate Joe Biden. Christie can be electrifying on the stump and brutally effective in taking down his opponents. He worked hard for Romney, but he'd be a running mate who could overshadow the top of the ticket.

Vital Stats
Age: 49
Birthplace: Newark, N.J.
Family: Mary Pat Foster (wife); Children: Andrew, Sarah, Patrick and Bridget
Religion: Roman Catholic
Current job: governor of New Jersey
Previous experience: U.S. attorney for the District of New Jersey, member of the Morris County Board of Chosen Freeholders
What They've Said: "If Gov. [Mitt] Romney were to come and talk to me about it, I'd listen, because I love my party enough and I love my country enough to listen."

Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H.

Bottom Line OK, so she's never held any elected office other than U.S. senator, and she's been in the Senate less than two years. But Kelly Ayotte is no novice. She served for five years as New Hampshire's attorney general. Oh, and she's a woman. Downside: a Romney/Ayotte ticket may be too much New England for a party that doesn't stand much chance of actually winning in New England.

Vital Stats
Age: 48
Birthplace: Nashua, N.H.
Family:Joe Ayotte (husband) ; Children: Katherine & Jacob
Religion: Roman Catholic
Current job: U.S. Senator for New Hampshire
Previous experience: N.H. state attorney general (2004-2009), U.S. senator (2010-present)
What They've Said: "I just got elected to the Senate by the good people of New Hampshire and that has been and will continue to be my only focus," Ayotte told the Nashua Telegraph.

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell

Bottom Line As a governor, attorney general and retired Army lieutenant colonel from swing state Virginia, McDonnell checks a lot of boxes. But his clumsy handling of the transvaginal ultrasound bill in Virginia didn't exactly help his case.

Vital Stats
Age: 57
Birthplace: Philadelphia, but moved to Fairfax County, Va., at 1 year old
Family: Maureen Gardner of McLean, Va. (wife) ; Children: Jeanine, Cailin, Rachel and twins, Bobby and Sean
Religion: Roman Catholic
Current job: governor of Virginia
Previous experience: 21 years in Army, including time on reserve, seven terms in the Virginia House of Delegates, three years as state attorney general, two years as governor
What They've Said: "I'd be very interested. It is a swing state. I'm not asking for the call. I'm not looking for the call."

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal

Bottom Line His 2009 response to President Obama's state of the union address was a flop, but Jindal is considered one of the smartest and most effective Republican governors in the country and that's enough to guarantee he gets a good look by the Romney team.

Vital Stats
Age: 39
Birthplace: Baton Rouge, La.
Family: Supriya (wife); Children: Selia Elizabeth, Shaan Robert and Slade Ryan
Religion: Roman Catholic
Current job: governor of Louisiana
Previous experience: director of Louisiana Health and Hospitals Department (1996-98), executive director of the National Bipartisan Commission on the Future of Medicare (1998-99), president of the University of Louisiana system (1999-2001), principal policy advisor to the secretary of Health and Human Services (2001-03), U.S. congressman (2004-2006), governor (2008-present)
What They've Said: "No, I will not be V.P."

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty

Bottom Line We know his campaign for president flopped, but blame that on tactics (who bets the farm on the Ames straw poll?). This Sam's Club Republican can help Romney with two groups: evangelicals and working class voters. And he's not as boring as you think. He wants us to take him off our list, but we are not going to do it.

Vital Stats
Age: 51
Birthplace: St. Paul, Minnesota
Family: Mary Anderson (wife); Children: Anna, Mara
Religion: Baptist
Current job: Lawyer
Previous experience: Governor of Minnesota (2003 - 2011), Majority Leader of the Minnesota House of Representatives (1999 - 2003).
What They've Said: "No, I've taken my name off that list."

10 posibles running-mates de Romney (Parte I)

Jonathan Karl (ABC News) ha elaborado las fichas de los 10 vicepresidenciables republicanos que más suenan:

Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio

Bottom Line He's Mr. Experience. Congressman, senator, member of the cabinet (twice). He has a proven ability to win, by a landslide, in Ohio. You think he's boring? Nah, this guy goes kayaking -- in China.

Vital Stats

Age: 56

Birthplace: Cincinnati

Family: Jane Portman (wife); Children: Jed, Will and Sally

Religion: Methodist

Current job: U.S. senator from Ohio

Previous experience: director of the Office of Management and Budget, U.S. trade representative, member of the U.S. House of Representatives

What They've Said: "No, not for me."

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.

Bottom Line He's young, he's Hispanic, he's from Florida and conservatives love him. When asked about being a VP candidate, he first said "no," but now Rubio says, "no comment." He's got both star power and Average Joe credentials -- this guy is still paying off his student loans.

Vital Stats

Age: 40

Birthplace: Miami
Family: Jeanette Dousdebes (wife); Children: Amanda, Daniella, Anthony and Dominic
Religion: Catholic

Current job: U.S. senator for Florida

Previous experience: speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, member of the Florida House of Representatives

What They've Said: "I'm not going to be the vice president."

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush

Bottom Line He says he doesn't want the job. The country may not yet be ready for another Bush. But Jeb could help deliver Florida, appeal to Hispanics and nobody would doubt his qualifications. And this: Romney has known him longer than anybody else on this list.

Vital Stats

Age: 59

Birthplace: Midland, Texas

Family: Columba (wife); Children: George P., Noelle, John Ellis (Jeb, Jr.)

Religion: Roman Catholic (since 1995)

Current Job: co-chairman of the Barbara Bush Foundation for Family Literacy

Previous experience: founded think-tank The Foundation for Florida's Future, governor of Florida (1999-2007)

What They've Said: "There is a strong field to pick from, but Marco Rubio, to me, would be the best choice."

Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis.

Bottom Line He's the man with the plan. Romney has already embraced Ryan's controversial budget, so why not go all in? He's got ideas and energy and conservatives may like Ryan even more than Rubio. Democrats, by the way, would love this pick.

Vital Stats

Age: 42
Birthplace: Janesville, Wis.

Family: Janna Ryan (wife); Children: Elizabeth, Charles and Samuel

Religion: Roman Catholic

Current job: chairman of the House Committee on the Budget

Previous experience: political speechwriter for 1996 vice presidential candidate Jack Kemp, legislative director for then-Sen. Sam Brownback

What They've Said: "I would have to consider it, but it's not something I am even thinking about right now because I think our job in Congress is pretty important."

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels

Bottom Line Daniels firmly said no when it came to running for president, but he's left the door open to being on the ticket. The man knows budgets and speaks Romney's language when it comes to focusing on the economy. Under Gov. Daniels, Indiana actually ran a surplus.

Vital Stats

Age: 63

Birthplace: Monongahela, Pa.

Family: Cheri (wife); Children: Meagan, Melissa, Meredith and Maggie

Religion: Presbyterian

Current job: governor of Indiana

Previous experience: chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (1983-84), chief political advisor and liaison to President Ronald Reagan (1985-87), president and CEO of conservative think tank the Hudson Institute (1987-90), director of the Office of Management and Budget (2001-03), governor (2004-present)

What They've Said: "I don't know, I've always felt that no citizen should say in advance, 'If asked to serve, I won't.'"

Romney en Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

El Gobernador Romney visitó ayer una charter school (escuela pública experimental, escuela concertada, escuela autónoma subsidiada, o como se le quiera llamar) de Carroll Park, uno de los barrios más negros y demócratas de Philadelphia, territorio hostil, para promover los beneficios de la tradicional familia biparental y discutir su plan educativo en una mesa redonda con maestros.

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