Convención abierta y candidato de consenso. ¿Posible?

The Washington Times:

True, it has been generations since a presidential nominating convention actually made that decision, although, admittedly, this idea pops up every four years. The last contested GOP convention that went beyond the first ballot was 1948, when Thomas Dewey was chosen on the third ballot - and went on to lose to Harry Truman. For the Democrats it was 1952, when Adlai Stevenson was chosen also on the third ballot - and went on to lose to Dwight Eisenhower. The longest was the Democratic convention of 1924 that went on for more than two weeks and took 103 ballots to nominate John Davis, who lost to Calvin Coolidge.

There may be a pattern there. As G. Terry Madonna and Michael Young point out in their insightful Dec. 6, 2007, article “What if the conventions are contested?” “It is no coincidence that brokered conventions ended after networks began to televise them. The 1952 convention is instructive. Actually settled on the first ballot when Dwight Eisenhower beat Robert Taft, the intraparty brawling that preceded the Eisenhower victory appalled thousands who watched it on TV.”

In fact, hotly contentious conventions - whether the GOP in 1912 or the riotous Democratic Chicago convention in 1968 - often augur poorly for the general election. But whether good news or bad, five odd features of this season’s GOP primary process suggest inconclusiveness.

First is the much-mentioned weak front-runner, Mitt Romney. He has consistently commanded about 25 percent in the polls. Is that a floor or a ceiling? Conservatives urgently want to nominate an undoubted and solid conservative. With Republican primary voters increasingly conservative over the last generation, it would be curious if the GOP nominated the least perceived conservative two times running - first Sen. John McCain in 2008 and then Mr. Romney in 2012.

Second, equally paramount with nominating a conservative, GOP primary voters urgently want to defeat the incumbent, and they hold that passion more powerfully than we have seen in living memory. The conviction that the incumbent is plunging the nation into soon-to-be-irreversible, statist decline is driving the voters both to want to choose the most electable candidate and to make sure they pick a candidate with the conviction and capacity to radically reverse course and re-establish traditional, conservative American values and programs.

But do those strong feeling help Mr. Romney - seen by many as the most electable - or do they hurt him because he is not seen as committed to his conservative policies? Will the wild voter preference swings for and then away from various true conservative, non-Romney candidates continue as the voters feel this election is too important to make a quick - and possibly, wrong - choice?

Third, unlike previous primaries, the candidates announced late, they are underfunded - even Mr. Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry - there is little advertising and there are smaller state campaign operations with fewer paid and volunteer staff members.

Fourth, perhaps most important, with constant cable television debates drawing very high viewerships, talk radio, Internet and social media, this is the most nationalized and earliest primary process we have ever seen.

(...) Fifth, consider also that the GOP changed its winner-take-all rules. Now, any state that holds a primary or caucus before April 1 must award its delegates on a proportional basis, rather than the winner-take-all method. This means that a front-runner with, say, a 38 percent plurality in a six-way split field will get only 38 percent of the delegates instead of 100 percent. This will keep second-tier candidates in the hunt and deny the front-runner the steamroller effect that usually delivers a de facto winner in the GOP by February.

And here is the kicker. If we do go into the August convention with no candidate holding a majority of the delegates, then the door is open to nonprimary candidates being nominated after the first inconclusive ballot. Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee or others could get in the race. Or a brilliant speech by Newt Gingrich could take the convention by storm.

Break out the Nicorettes and flavored vodkas. We could be in for a modern version of smoke-and-whiskey-filled rooms in Tampa next August.

Newsmax:

Elements within the Republican Party are dreaming of a deadlocked convention that will hand the GOP’s standard to a Jeb Bush or a Chris Christie, candidates they believe are best suited to make Barack Obama a one-term president.

Under the scenario batted around by party leaders and pundits, the top tier candidates battle it out state by state, dividing up the wins and delegates until they stumble into the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla., in late August with no winner. Deal making fails to crown any of the candidates and the field is opened up.

Former Florida Gov. Bush, New Jersey Gov. Christie or Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels gets the nomination, upsetting nearly 60 years of presidential nominating history.

“Yes, I have heard such talk from a few senior Republicans, including one officeholder,” University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato told Newsmax. “Why? They are dissatisfied with the field and hope that at a convention, a deadlock would produce a stronger nominee, such as Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, or the like---a candidate who didn't want to run but would be willing to undertake a short general election race.

“I have said the same thing to each one: This is a pipe dream with at best a tiny chance of happening.”

Regardless, the thought has piqued the interest of political correspondents, talk show hosts and the former head of the Republican National Committee Michael Steele.

(...) NBC correspondent Andrea Mitchell wondered who would carry the conservative flag if “Cain implodes.”

“Could it be Newt Gingrich? I would suggest he has so many flaws from his record that that would be a hard sell,” she said. “Is there a scenario? And you know the rules far better than anyone, Michael. Under these new rules, is there some sort of scenario where at the end of the day there could be a brokered convention – but could Jeb Bush come into it or someone else at the end of the day?”

Steele replied that for that to happen you would have “to have a scenario where you have two maybe three people going into the convention that are close in the delegate numbers.

“But what would happen in that situation is that the pressure would be on to really gravitate to one of those folks, to have a fourth person or third person come out of the blue and get the nomination would just upheave the whole thing. Because then you're having a conversation about a Jeb Bush coming in in August to run for the presidency in November.”