lunes, 2 de abril de 2012

PPP: Romney se encamina a una doble victoria mañana



Public Policy Polling:
Mitt Romney looks to be headed for another pair of victories in Tuesday's primaries. Maryland is likely to be a blow out with Romney at 52% to 27% for Rick Santorum, 10% for Newt Gingrich, and 9% for Ron Paul. Wisconsin should be a good deal closer. There Romney's at 43% to 36% for Santorum, 11% for Paul, and 8% for Gingrich.

Romney's starting to have some success with groups that have generally been key components of Santorum's base over the last two months. For instance he leads with Tea Party voters in both states, 43-34 in Maryland and 46-38 in Wisconsin. He's also becoming more competitive with Evangelical voters, leading 43-36 with them in Maryland and trailing only 47-35 with them in Wisconsin. In the states where Santorum's been victorious he's generally won Evangelicals by a much wider margin than that.

The only thing keeping Santorum competitive in Wisconsin is the state's open primary. He actually trails Romney 50-36 with Republican voters but 40% of those saying they're likely to vote are either independents or Democrats and with those folks Santorum leads 37-32, making it more competitive overall. If those non-Republicans don't actually end up turning out Romney can expect to win by a wider margin.

Among voters who decided 'in the last few days,' 9% of the Wisconsin electorate, Santorum leads Romney 52-27. That makes you wonder whether Paul Ryan's late endorsement of Romney was much of a game changer.

Newt Gingrich might not be ready to leave the GOP race for President, but the party base is ready for him to. In Wisconsin 63% of voters think he should drop out, while 27% think he should continue on. In Maryland it's 57% who believe he should drop out to 33% who believe he should stay in.

6 comentarios:

Anónimo dijo...

Acabo de ver que Chris Christie viaja hoy a Israel y se entrevista con el Primer Ministro Netanyahu y con el Peresidente Simon Peres. ¿Es un indicador de que Chris Christie es el favorito para VP? ¿Tiene algo que ver con la elección de runing mate por parte de Romney?.

A mi juicio creo que es significativo. La elección de Chris Christie supone competir en estados difíciles para los republicanos como Pensilvania e incluso New Jersey donde la populariddad del gobernador va en aumento.

Dejo hay la pregunta.

Un abrazo para todos

Casto Martín

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

Nada que ver. Todos los gobernadores acostumbran a visitar Israel, y especialmente los que tienen muchos judíos en sus estados.

libertarian dijo...

Esto es acojonnate

Tu mismo pones en la barra lateral que hay 3 primarias hoy... y la noticia habla de doblete de Romney

Que pasa con la prensa..que porque Santorum no participa ya no existe la de DC.. o es que hay que hacer apagon a un resultado de Ron Paul superior al 15%

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

Es que la encuesta es de Wisconsin y maryland, así que dificilmente puedo decir que va a hacer triplete.

Cuando pongo PPP seguido de dos puntos quiere decir, "PPP dice"... ¿y qué es lo que dice? Que va a ganar Maryland y Wisconsin. No dice nada de DC. No hay encuestas de DC.

libertarian dijo...

De todas formas.. hace tiempo que se vienen luciendo los del PPP con sus sondeos

Antxon Garrogerrikabeitia dijo...

Es una firma demócrata.