Public Policy Polling:
Mitt Romney looks to be headed for another pair of victories in Tuesday's primaries. Maryland is likely to be a blow out with Romney at 52% to 27% for Rick Santorum, 10% for Newt Gingrich, and 9% for Ron Paul. Wisconsin should be a good deal closer. There Romney's at 43% to 36% for Santorum, 11% for Paul, and 8% for Gingrich.
Romney's starting to have some success with groups that have generally been key components of Santorum's base over the last two months. For instance he leads with Tea Party voters in both states, 43-34 in Maryland and 46-38 in Wisconsin. He's also becoming more competitive with Evangelical voters, leading 43-36 with them in Maryland and trailing only 47-35 with them in Wisconsin. In the states where Santorum's been victorious he's generally won Evangelicals by a much wider margin than that.
The only thing keeping Santorum competitive in Wisconsin is the state's open primary. He actually trails Romney 50-36 with Republican voters but 40% of those saying they're likely to vote are either independents or Democrats and with those folks Santorum leads 37-32, making it more competitive overall. If those non-Republicans don't actually end up turning out Romney can expect to win by a wider margin.
Among voters who decided 'in the last few days,' 9% of the Wisconsin electorate, Santorum leads Romney 52-27. That makes you wonder whether Paul Ryan's late endorsement of Romney was much of a game changer.
Newt Gingrich might not be ready to leave the GOP race for President, but the party base is ready for him to. In Wisconsin 63% of voters think he should drop out, while 27% think he should continue on. In Maryland it's 57% who believe he should drop out to 33% who believe he should stay in.