2016

Ya está en marcha el blog que dedicaré al seguimiento de las elección presidencial de 2016. Allí nos vemos.

http://enel16.blogspot.com

16: Chris Christie en New Hampshire

El Gobernador de New Jersey recorrió esta semana el estado de granito haciendo campaña a favor de la elección del republicano Ovide Lamontagne para Gobernador de New Hampshire.

Lamontagne, un conservador, tiene buenas opciones de llegar a la mansión del Gobernador en noviembre y de hacerlo, puede convertirse en el kingmaker de una hipotética primaria presidencial republicana dentro de cuatro (u ocho) años.

Hoy estará en New Hampshire el Gobernador Scott Walker, de Wisconsin, otro que suena como futuro candidato presidencial. Dará el keynote address en la convención estatal del GOP.

16: Santorum y Jindal en Iowa

Los dos supuestos presidenciables se unieron esta semana a la campaña para destituir a un juez liberal de la Corte Suprema de Iowa.

Ex Senador Rick Santorum, de Pennsylvania.



Gobernador Bobby Jindal, de Louisiana.

16: Bill (dice que) no sabe lo que hará Hillary

Bill Clinton ha comentado las ambiciones presidenciales de su mujer en Face The Nation (CBS):

"No lo sé. Ha trabajado duro durante 20 años. Tuvimos ocho años en la Casa Blanca, luego se presentó al Senado, sirvió ocho años en Nueva York, y luego inmediatamente se convirtió en Secretaria de Estado, y está cansada. Ha trabajado realmente duro. Creo que ha hecho un trabajo fabuloso. Estoy muy orgulloso de ella. Pero quiere retirarse un tiempo, una especie de reagrupación. Escribir un libro... Creo que tenemos que darle la oportunidad de organizar su vida y decidir qué quiere hacer. Yo no lo sé. Es una persona extraordinariamente capaz. Nunca he conocido a nadie que me pareciera mejor servidor público. Pero no tengo ni la menor idea de qué decidirá."

16: Hillary, una piedra en el camino de Cuomo

(Foto: AP)

The New York Times nos cuenta que el entorno del Gobernador de Nueva York ha estado sondeando a algunos líderes del partido, concretamente sondearon a un líder de la comunidad afroamericana durante la convención de Charlotte, para saber con qué apoyos contarían si Hillary también se presenta a las elecciones de 2016:

Mrs. Clinton complicates Mr. Cuomo’s ambitions in several ways. Despite the fact that she hails from Illinois, she is now viewed as a New Yorker and commands deep loyalty from the state’s Democratic establishment. And Mr. Cuomo, 54, reveres her husband, former President Bill Clinton; he views Mr. Clinton as a mentor who helped him begin a career in politics, according to Cuomo friends and associates.

The focus on Mrs. Clinton among Mr. Cuomo’s advisers was apparent during the Democratic convention. At one point, a key adviser to the governor approached the Rev. Al Sharpton to ask him if he would support Mrs. Clinton were she to run in 2016, according to a prominent New York Democrat with direct knowledge of the conversation.

“They are totally trying to figure out what she would do,” said the Democrat, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid alienating Mr. Cuomo.

Another Democrat close to Mr. Cuomo said the situation was making the Cuomo camp cranky, in part because the governor, a skilled strategic thinker, did not like to be captive to others’ ambitions.

And a top fund-raiser for Mr. Cuomo put it this way: “He’s got a former first lady and former New York senator in his sandbox, and that’s a mess for him. He’s got to wait and see what Hillary will do.”

(...) “In terms of the psychodrama of politics, it does not get any better than this,” the Democrat close to Mr. Cuomo said.

While Mr. Cuomo has deep affection for Mr. Clinton and calls him for advice, his relationship with Mrs. Clinton is less personal.

(...) In the weeks leading up to the convention, Mr. Cuomo, who served as the nation’s housing secretary under President Clinton, turned down offers from old associates of his father, former Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, and former colleagues from the federal housing department to talk quietly about his presidential prospects, as other prominent Democrats, like Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland, began planting the seeds for possible candidacies, according to a close Cuomo adviser.

Among those yearning for a Cuomo presidential campaign in 2016, a divide has emerged: some suggest that if Mrs. Clinton ran, the governor’s loyalty to Mr. Clinton would prevent him from joining the field.

But others reject the notion that Mrs. Clinton poses a serious obstacle to Mr. Cuomo, saying she is enjoying a political honeymoon right now but still has many of the weaknesses that plagued her in the past, including a polarizing image.

By contrast, they say, Mr. Cuomo is a fresh face whom Democratic officials, donors and activists will naturally want to court — provided that he wins re-election in 2014, when Mrs. Clinton will most likely be out of a job in politics.

16: Chris Christie se deja ver en Iowa

El Gobernador Chris Christie, de New Jersey, que el año pasado recibió en Trenton a varias delegaciones de republicanos de Iowa pidiéndole que se presentara a Presidente, recibió ayer una calurosa bienvenida en el estado del ojo de halcón.

Por la noche habló en una recaudación de fondos del GOP estatal en Altoona y antes ofreció su endorsement al Congresista Steve King en Sioux City. No habló de 2016 o 2020, pero cuando un político recorre 2,000 kilómetros para hacer campaña por un Congresista (uno entre 435) que tiene la reelección asegurada es porque algo quiere - el endorsement de King suele ser uno de los botines más preciados por los candidatos presidenciales republicanos en los Caucus de Iowa.

16: O'Malley hizo ayer su primera visita a Iowa

(Foto: AP)

The Baltimore Sun:

Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley was in this first-in-the-nation caucus state Sunday to give the keynote address to hundreds at a Democratic barbecue — a role frequently reserved for likely presidential candidates.

The invitation, and decision to speak, is a step on O'Malley's march toward national prominence and fuels speculation about a possible run for the White House in 2016. Previous headliners at Sen. Tom Harkin's annual "Steak Fry" include Barack Obama, Richard Gephardt, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.

"If you are a politician, you don't casually go to Iowa," said Katie O'Conner, who was one of Howard Dean's top advisers when he ran for president in 2004. "You are obviously thinking of something. You don't just go for the heck of going."

(...) The first question from the Iowa press corps: Is it difficult to begin testing the waters in Iowa before the 2012 election has been held? (O'Malley replied: "I don't know. That is not what I'm doing.")

O'Malley said he came as a surrogate for President Obama to Iowa, where the polls have him just about even with challenger Mitt Romney. He also cited his responsibilities as the chair of the Democratic Governors Association to help lay groundwork for the next gubernatorial election in Iowa. It is two years from now.

(...) Campaign strategists see the Steak Fry as an important way to reach hundreds of the Democratic activists who act as surrogates and organizers during Iowa's unusual caucus process. Rather than a simple primary election, Iowa voters meet — sometimes for hours — and hear speeches from the various campaigns before making their selection.

The Steak Fry "is a regular stop on the Iowa pre-caucus circuit," said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "O'Malley's obviously running for president if he can. Ergo, he needs to make an appearance, or more than one."

(...) The governor led the crowd of about 1,000 in the "forward not back" mantra he used a few weeks ago from Charlotte, N.C.

"We live in changing times. The question is: What kind of change to we want it to be?" O'Malley said. "How much less education do you really think would be good for our country?" he asked, a line he frequently uses.

He tailored the next question to the rural audience. "How many family farms can we no longer afford to save?" he asked.

The reception was mixed. Kate Ortiz, a 57-year-old teacher from Leon, Iowa, didn't like O'Malley's repeating the "forward not backward" lines. "His speechwriters, if he has any, need to tell him to drop the orchestrated crowd response," she wrote on a note that she left on a reporter's windshield. "I do not like feeling like an automaton repeating what I'm told to say."

Still, she liked parts of his speech and appreciated seeing him in person. "He sounded more like 'himself' today than a party-selected spokesman," she wrote. "I will be sure to pay attention when his name comes up again."

Others gushed. "You have a good governor," said Diane Pickle, a longtime Harkin volunteer. Touching her chest, she said: "I could follow him. He reminds me of Barack Obama."

La convención de Charlotte posiciona a los presidenciables demócratas de 2016

David Weigel, de Slate.com, palpó en la convención las sensaciones de los delegados demócratas sobre los posibles aspirantes presidenciales de 2016.

La conclusión es que todo depende de lo que haga Hillary (y yo añado que lo mismo se pensaba en 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, cuando se miraba a 2008). Del resto de presidenciables, Weigel coincide con otros observadores en que el Gobernador Deval Patrick, de Massachusetts, fue quien más gustó en el Time Warner Cable Arena.

Y parece que los más activos, los que se movieron siguiendo el clásico libro de jugadas de un potencial candidato presidencial en los tres días de convención, fueron el Gobernador Martin O'Malley, de Maryland, que no esconde su ambición, y la Senadora Amy Klobuchar, de Minnesota, fuera del radar hasta esta semana, que ha dado muestras de estar tanteando el terreno para el 2016.

The takeaway from this piece is the takeaway I got when I asked delegates to look Forward. Everybody loves Hillary.

“I was for Barack in 2008 and I’ll wait on her,” said South Carolina Democratic Chairman Dick Harpootlian, an early Obama supporter who memorably compared Bill Clinton to the late GOP operative Lee Atwater in the last Democratic primary in South Carolina. “The only buzz I hear is Hillary.”

This was a practically universal sentiment.

Delegates hadn't much thought about 2016, so gripped were they with fear that Barack Obama could lose. (It's a sound fear! Lose the presidency this time, and in 2016 either you're running to replace a Republican who's already moved the Supreme Court right, or you're running against an economic recovery, and out of power until 2020 at least.) But when I mentioned the next primary, Hillary Clinton was the universal placeholder. After Gov. Deval Patrick's Tuesday night speech, I heard just a little chatter about him. Less of that on Thursday, though. Who else does Politico put on the list?

Joe Biden. The power moves described in the Martin/Shultheis piece have Biden moving around Iowa's players at his whim. But he'll be 73 in 2016, and 74 after election day. We're just talking about him to be nice, aren't we?

Gov. Martin O'Malley. He began the week with a too-nuanced Sunday show hit that inspired every other reporter to ask Democrats if we were really "better off than we were four years ago." He continued it with a call-and-response speech that got at most 71 percent of the stadium chanting along, and that the Heathers in the press stand compared unfavorably to Patrick's.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar. She was everywhere -- Women's caucuses, delegate breakfasts, any dangerously empty-looking interview chairs -- which gets her Mentioned in these stories. She's up for re-election this year but lucked out when the Ron Paul-ified Minnesota GOP nominated one of their own to run against her.

Gov. John Hickenlooper. I don't think many people took notice of his speech -- he has an affable speaking style that informs but does not overwhelm. But he's from Colorado, and in post-convention chats last night, he sounded like he'd at least considered it.

Sen. Mark Warner. Again? We went through this in 2006, when the Democrats' narrow loss to George W. Bush convinced the pundit class that a Moderate would save the party. To believe in the Warner boomlet you have to believe that the party will lose in 2012 and become so depressed that it's willing to embraces Bowles-Simpson-ism.

Charlotte: Brian Schweitzer

16: Andrew Cuomo se apropia de la atención en Charlotte

El Gobernador Andrew Cuomo, de Nueva York, ha aterrizado hoy en Charlotte para presenciar el discurso de Obama pero antes ha visitado el hotel de los delegados de Nueva York para pronunciar un discurso apasionado, fuertemente partidista y con un indudable contenido nacional.

Ha criticado las políticas económicas de los republicanos y ha presentado a Nueva York como modelo para una agenda progresista para EEUU sobre impuestos, educación y matrimonios del mismo sexo.


Watch live video from capitaltonight on Justin.tv

16: O'Malley y Warner visitan a los delegados de Iowa en Charlotte

(Foto: Peter Hamby)

Des Moines Register:

He only spoke for seven minutes, but Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley stuck around for a long time afterward, taking photos with Iowans and patiently answering reporters’ questions.

It was get-to-know-you day for Democratic delegates from first-in-the-nation Iowa and politicians feeling out a possible White House bid in 2016.

Reporters went straight to the big question: Thinking about a run for president?

“I’m thinking about re-electing Barack Obama,” O’Malley told a scrum of reporters from the Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Business Insider, CNN, Virginia Pilot, Charlotte Observer, Politico, National Journal, BBC and others. “And that’s all I’m focused on.”

But O’Malley waxed on about his fondness for the Hawkeye State.

“I like Iowa. I know Iowa. I’ve spent some time in Iowa. Good people in Iowa,” he said. “It’s a great state.”

(Foto: Peter Hamby)

Des Moines Register:

U.S. Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, who described to the Iowa delegation this morning his successful business background in the cellphone industry.

Warner said he wants to look at the country’s problems from a businessman’s perspective.

“I’ll match my business credentials with anyone on the Republican side,” he told about 80 Iowa Democratic activists at the morning breakfast meeting at a banquet tent outside their hotel.

(...) After his 20-minute speech, the Des Moines Register asked him how he ended up at this breakfast – did the Iowa Democrats reach out to you or did you invite yourself?
“My understanding is they invited all of us,” he answered. “That’s what I understand.”

What are your plans for 2016?

“I’ve got no plans,” he said, as reporters from the Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Business Insider, CNN, the Virginia Pilot, Charlotte Observer, Politico, National Journal, the BBC and others pressed in around him with tape recorders

Would you be interested in running?

“I’ve got no plans.”

Nothing at all?

“I have no plans.”

After saying hello to the Iowa reporters and mentioning that he recognized the Register’s political columnist, Kathie Obradovich, he said: “I have no plans. If we don’t get not only this, not only a plan for going forward, but yu’ve heard other pitches from me, if we don’t deal with this debt and deficit issue in the coming year, it’s going to be a very different country in 2016.”

16: la mayoría de los aspirantes demócratas de 2016 se retirarán si Hillary se presenta, dice Hickenlooper

(Foto: Helen H. Richardson, The Denver Post)

En una charla con POLITICO ayer en Charlotte, el Gobernador John Hickenlooper, de Colorado, descartó presentarse a Presidente en 2016 y dijo que tampoco ve opciones realistas para otros Gobernadores si Hillary decide presentarse.

"Al menos la mitad de ellos se retirarían si ella estuviera ahí, sin duda. (El Gobernador de Maryland) Martin O'Malley es un buen ejemplo. Martin O'Malley ha sido siempre un fuerte aliado de los Clinton, y no puedo imaginar que se opusiera a ellos en una primaria... Creo que (el Gobernador de Massachusetts) Deval Patrick pasaría un mal rato. Los Clinton fueron gente importante que le ayudó. Le costaría muchos apoyos. La gente le preguntaría, ¿es esa la clase de amigo que eres?"

Lo mismo dijo sobre el Gobernador de Nueva York, Andrew Cuomo, que fue Secretario de Vivienda en la Administración Clinton, insinuando además lo que es un secreto a voces, que el resto de Gobernadores no sienten demasiado aprecio por el inaccesible político neoyorkino: "No lo conozco. No suele venir a los eventos nacionales de Gobernadores. Pero él es otro. ¿Estaría donde está sin los Clinton?"

Charlotte: Bill Clinton

En un discurso vintage de casi 50 minutos, probablemente más largo que el del propio nominado, el ex Presidente utilizó sus dotes de persuasión para validar las políticas de Obama. Explicó con más talento todo aquello que Chicago repite sin demasiado efecto: que el Presidente ha evitado que el país caiga en la depresión, que ha salvado la industria del automóvil, que el recorte de 716 millones al Medicare en el ObamaCare no afectará a los beneficiarios del programa que será solvente hasta 2024... Incluso hizo que pareciera creíble el dudoso retrato de Obama como un Presidente pragmático que busca el compromiso pero se ve obstaculizado por los republicanos.

Y, aunque mencionó una sola vez a Hillary, seguramente su mayor conquista fue la de preparar el terreno para una segunda candidatura de su mujer. La atmósfera de reconciliación con Team Obama, con un abrazo figurado seguido de uno literal, se asemejó a la rúbrica de un trato definitivo. Un hoy por ti, mañana por mí. Si Obama no apoya a Hillary mañana, parecerá un desagradecido.

Transcripción del discurso.

Charlotte: Elizabeth Warren

Cuchicheos de Charlotte

Parece que no habrá suelta de globos para Obama mañana. Es demasiado tarde para colocarlos en el techo del Time Warner Cable Arena.

The real news today from @jkuhnhenn -- there will NOT be balloons tomorrow. #2012

— Phil Elliott (@Philip_Elliott) septiembre 5, 2012

En la delegación de Maryland dan por hecho que su Gobernador, Martin O'Malley, ya tiene decidido presentarse a Presidente en 2016.

Ya don't say ... MT @jonathanalter Just heard from big Maryland pol on Charlotte street that O'Malley is almost definitely running in '16.

— Alex Burns (@aburnspolitico) septiembre 5, 2012

Fox News dice que en conversaciones privadas los demócratas están manifestando su preocupación por la desventaja en fondos:

Senior Democratic sources say that in closed-door meetings with campaign donors here at the convention, top Obama campaign officials like campaign manager Jim Messina are expressing increasing alarm over the fact that Republican Mitt Romney raised $100 million in the month of August alone, further expanding his cash edge.

The Democratic sources tell Fox News the Obama team is privately saying they believe the final days of the presidential race are now shaping up as a dramatic battle between money and demographics, with President Obama's advisers fearful that Romney will use his war chest to unleash a bombardment of television ads and ground game to turn out more white, working-class voters.

Nevertheless, the Obama team is saying in these private meetings they are still confident that they can win by exploiting their demographic edge with Hispanic, African-American and female voters, among others. As a result, the president's Thursday night acceptance speech is expected to be full of direct appeals to these voters.

(...) The fundraising questions come as campaign officials confirm a Washington Post report that Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, the former White House chief of staff, is stepping down from his honorary role as a co-chairman of the Obama campaign so that he can help juice fundraising by outside Democratic Super PACs.

16: Biden invitó a los delegados de Iowa a su palco

(Foto: AP/Charlie Neibergall)

Des Moines Register:

Members of the Iowa delegation spent time in Biden’s box at the convention hall on Tuesday night, State Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal said. But there was never even a hint that the vice president had anything in mind beyond the current campaign, Gronstal added.

Likewise, if delegates are getting any under-the-radar pings from the Clintons, they are keeping quiet. The negatives of nosing around Iowa are far greater than any benefit for Biden and Clinton at this stage.

Para los no iniciados que no entiendan dónde está el interés de esta información, lo explico: Iowa es el estado que cada cuatro años inaugura la carrera electoral por la Presidencia y a Biden se le supone interesado en competir por la candidatura demócrata en 2016.

16: O'Malley en horario de máxima audiencia

POLITICO habló con el Gobernador Martin O'Malley, de Maryland, en el backstage después de su discurso. Describió lo que se siente al pronunciar por primera vez un discurso en el prime-time de una convención nacional, y esquivó la inevitable pregunta sobre sus planes para 2016: "¡Dame un respiro!"

O'Malley, probablemente el demócrata que hasta ahora más abiertamente se está posicionando para dar el salto a las presidenciales dentro de cuatro años, habló entre las 9:55 y las 10:05, un horario privilegiado por el que muchos matarían. Fue su primera aparición ante una gran audiencia nacional para la que sigue siendo un desconocido.

Pero no ha recibido buenas críticas en The Baltimore Sun, el periódico más importante de su estado, que cree que desaprovechó la ocasión actuando más como un cheerleader que como un auténtico líder.

It was too big and felt far too artificial and gimmicky for the intimacy of TV.

By too big, I mean, in the gestures and expressions and movements of O'Malley. At times he almost seemed to mugging -- like a bad actor over-gesturing to make sure the people in the last row of the balcony could see his eyebrows move.

Only on TV, the camera is right in your face, and when you forget that and over-emote, you look either phony or silly no matter how real or substantial your words might be.
Only in O'Malley's case, the words were not very good either. The biggest mistake was trying to engage the audience in a call and answer chant/cheer: "President Obama is moving America forward, not back." Making it seem hokier was the fact that some in the audience had signs that read either "moving forward" or "not back" that they held up as he led them in the refrain.

Those potions of the speech felt staged, artificial and more like something suited to a high school rally than the stage of a national convention where several powerful and moving speeches had already been sounded Tuesday. Worst of all, it made O'Malley seem more like a cheerleader than the leader of the Democratic governors and a top contender for president in 2016. O'Malley has substance and smarts and all the tools to be great on TV, but that isn't what came through on the tube Tuesday night.

Charlotte: Julián Castro

Transcripción del discurso.

Charlotte: Martin O'Malley y Deval Patrick

Gobernador Martin O'Malley, de Maryland.



Gobernador Deval Patrick, de Massachusetts.

Charlotte: Cory Booker y Rahm Emanuel

Alcalde Cory Booker, de Newark.



Alcalde Rahnm Emanuel, de Chicago.