Crónica del más espectacular ascenso y caída de un candidato presidencial

(Foto: AP)

Jay Root, reportero de The Texas Tribune que siguió la campaña presidencial del Gobernador Rick Perry, ha escrito "Oops!", una crónica de 213 páginas sobre cómo se produjo la caída de la una vez prometedora campaña del un día favorito entre los aspirantes republicanos de 2012, el preferido del Tea Party, el niño bonito de la política texana que en treinta años no había perdido una elección.

Según Root, hubo una confluencia de factores: la improvisación por entrar tarde en campaña, la falta de descanso, problemas de salud del candidato, la división del personal de la campaña en facciones rivales.

The Week adelanta cuatro cuestiones que se revelan en el libro:

1. Perry got no sleep the night before his "oops" Root reveals that during the debate debacles, Perry "was just very sleepy," says Taylor Berman at Gawker. The candidate, who had undergone back surgery in July 2011, had painful sensations in his leg and foot that were keeping him up at night. As Root puts it, after the surgery sidelined him, he went from being a light sleeper to being an insomniac, and it showed. The morning before one debate the governor told his travel aide: "I didn't sleep a wink." A Florida GOP official who met the candidate during one commercial break told reporters she could tell he was in physical distress: "His hand was so cold, like ice. And he was sweating. I don't know what it was, but something was definitely wrong."

2. Everyone was shocked by his disastrous debates During one debate, Perry gave "a rambling, incoherent attack" in which he tried to accuse Mitt Romney of being a flip-flopper, says Connor Simpson at The Atlantic. Root says an ABC News reporter, Arlette Saenz, turned to him and asked, "Was he like this in Texas?" Root, often called on to provide similar perspective, was at a loss. "Honey, we're in uncharted waters," he told Saenz. "Behind the scenes, Perry's team was just as confused as anyone. Their guy was awful, and they knew it."

3. The belated diagnosis for Perry's fog: Sleep apnea Armchair medical experts chalked up Perry's mental lapses to painkillers prescribed after his back surgery, say Ashley Killough and Kevin Bohn at CNN, but the campaign maintained he had stopped taking them. Advisers called in sleep specialists, who diagnosed sleep apnea, Root says, a disorder affecting one in 10 men, causing "loud snoring and temporary lapses in breathing that disrupt normal sleep." Perry's doctors prescribed a breathing machine that pushes a constant flow of air through the breathing passages, which helped. "Perry, an exercise junkie, soon got back to normal once he was able to work out again." By then it was too late, Root says. "The narrative had already been set. He was becoming an afterthought."

4. Perry was going down in flames — even without "oops" One thing Root's account makes clear, says Joe Holley at the Houston Chronicle, is that "even if Perry had slept like a baby for eight hours a night," he didn't stand a chance of acing a brutal, unforgiving presidential campaign. The "multitudinous gaffes" were just the tip of the iceberg. There was also "infighting and feuding at the top and the candidate's woeful ill-preparedness." Those factors alone "would have been enough to doom the campaign." The historically memorable "oops" moment "was merely the coup de grace."

16: Rick Perry mantiene sus ambiciones presidenciales

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Balance de las Primarias Republicanas de 2012

Ayer concluyeron oficialmente las primarias presidenciales republicanas de 2012 con la esperada victoria de Mitt Romney en Utah con el 93% de los votos. El ex Gobernador de Massachusetts se llevó los 40 delegados en juego, sumando un total de 1,512 delegados, según Associated Press. Supera en 368 delegados los 1,144 necesarios para salir nominado en la primera votación de la convención, y es probable que se haga también con una mayoría de los delegados de los candidatos que ya han renunciado a competir en la convención (Santorum, Gingrich y Huntsman). El único competidor que sigue en activo, Ron Paul, suma 158 delegados.

Por delegados,



Por estados ganados,



Romney (37 estados): Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nueva York, Carolina del Norte, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Dakota del Sur, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Virginia Occidental, Wisconsin y Wyoming.

Santorum (11 estados): Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Dakota del Norte, Oklahoma y Tennessee.

Gingrich (2 estados): Georgia y Carolina del Sur.

Por voto popular,

Gobernador Mitt Romney - 9,620,460 votos
Senador Rick Santorum - 3,898,874 votos
Speaker Newt Gingrich - 2,713,417 votos
Congresista Ron Paul - 2,039,214 votos
Gobernador Jon Huntsman - 84,693 votos
Gobernador Rick Perry - 54,769 votos
Congresista Michele Bachmann - 41,333 votos
Gobernador Buddy Roemer - 28,008 votos
Herman Cain - 13,629 votos
Gobernador Gary Johnson - 4,364 votos

Pensando en Texas, Santorum persigue el apoyo de Perry

CNN:

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum met with former opponent Rick Perry earlier this week, CNN confirmed Friday.

"We viewed it was a courtesy visit," Perry's spokesman Ray Sullivan said, without discussing specifics of the conversation.

The meeting, held in Austin, came Tuesday just hours before Santorum faced disappointing losses in Wisconsin, Maryland and the District of Columbia.

(...) While it's not known what Perry and Santorum discussed when they met Tuesday, the Texas governor's spokesman said, "Perry remains a Newt backer."

In recent days, Santorum has publicly set his eye on Texas, saying a win in the Lone Star State, with its 152 delegates at stake–next month would be a game changer for his campaign.

This wasn't the first time the two Rick's had talked since the Texas governor ended his campaign. During a visit to San Antonio last month, Santorum said he had spoken with Perry several times prior in the weeks following Perry's departure from the race.

Gingrich piensa en Perry

Fox News informa que Gingrich planea ofrecerle la Vicepresidencia a Rick Perry con meses de antelación para unir el voto conservador, pensando en una convención abierta.

Sources close to the Gingrich campaign say preliminary "what-if" conversations are underway that could lead to a Gingrich-Perry ticket being announced prior to the Republican National Convention at the end of August.

Gingrich insiders hope forming a predetermined ticket with Perry will unite the evangelical, Tea Party and very conservative voters that make up the core of the GOP.

As discussions got underway, a spokesman for Texas Gov. Rick Perry released a statement saying, "Gov. Perry thinks Newt Gingrich is the strongest conservative to debate and defeat President Obama and truly overhaul Washington. The speculation is humbling but premature."

El movimiento recordaría al de Reagan con Schweiker en el 76, en aquel caso para atraer el apoyo de los delegados liberales, que resultó ser un fracaso.

Llama la atención que la información se filtre cinco meses antes de la convención, cuando el candidato tiene poco más de 100 delegados. Puede que sea un gesto dirigido a los conservadores de Alabama y Mississippi.

Post-debate: Rick Perry ejerce de portavoz de Gingrich

Contratando

Esta foto ha sido tomada por Mark Preston (CNN) en la CPAC. Ahora que les está llegando el dinero de golpe, Team Santorum está contratando personal entre los activistas de la CPAC. Se calcula que por la CPAC han pasado este año cerca de 10,000 de los mejores activistas conservadores del país.

Romney gana en un recinto de Burnswick

Burnswick, una localidad del condado de Cumberland, en Maine, ha hecho públicos esta mañana los resultados de su caucus:

Romney - 53 votos
Santorum - 28 votos
Paul - 24 votos
Gingrich - 1 voto
Perry - 1 voto

Hace cuatro años, los resultados de este mismo recinto fueron: 49 votos para Romney, 22 para McCain, y 10 para Paul.

Se supone que el condado de Cumberland es el mejor condado de Romney.

Debate en Tampa

Hubo un cambio de papeles respecto a otros debates. El hasta ahora frío Romney se mostró más beligerante que nunca. Repitió varias veces la palabra "deshonrado" para definir la salida de Gingrich de la Cámara de Representantes y puso sobre el tapete la relación profesional de su adversario con Freddie Mac, utilizando palabras gruesas. "Puedes llamarlo como quieras," dijo en relación al contrato de 1.6 millones de dólares del gigante hipotecario con la firma de consultoría de Gingrich. "Yo lo llamo tráfico de influencias."

Gingrich aparcó la fiereza de sus últimas actuaciones para dar una imagen más presidencial. Discreto y confiado, quiso tranquilizar al establishment dando prueba de que no es un demagogo a todas horas. Dijo que no quería dedicar la noche a ir detrás de la "desinformación" de Romney, se quejó de que el debate se estuviera volviendo personal y desagradable, y ni siquiera se molestó en rebatir algunos ataques específicos. Otros los utilizó a su favor, como su pasado apoyo al plan de medicamentos recetados del Medicare, que puede ser de utilidad con la amplia comunidad de jubilados y veteranos de Florida.

El debate no aportó información nueva, ni momentos grandiosos como los de la semana pasada. Hubo bastante acuerdo en los asuntos locales, como la exploración espacial (en Florida está la famosa costa espacial en torno al Centro Espacial Kennedy), los subsidios al azúcar, o la exploración de hidrocarburos en la costa. En inmigración, los candidatos coincidieron en la necesidad de impulsar la parte más militar del Dream Act (la inscripción en las Fuerzas Armadas como camino para la regularización de jóvenes inmigrantes).

Preguntados sobre cómo responderían a la noticia de la muerte de Fidel Castro, Romney y Gingrich compitieron por ver quién la tenía más grande para satisfacción del exilio anti-castrista.

"Antes de nada, daría gracias al cielo porque Fidel Castro ha vuelto con su Creador," empezó Romney, prometiendo que promoverá la demoracia en Cuba. Y no se olvidó de mencionar a Wilman Villar, el disidente cubano muerto hace unos días después de una prolongada huelga de hambre.

"No creo que Fidel Castro vaya a conocer a su Creador. Va a ir a otro lugar," sentenció Gingrich.

Santorum y Paul estuvieron en un segundo plano. El moderador no les hizo ninguna pregunta en los primeros diez minutos. El ex Senador repitió algunos argumentos utilizados en Carolina del Sur para contrastar sus credenciales conservadoras con las de los front-runners. Y el Congresista estuvo menos implicado en el debate porque no está compitiendo en Florida.

Recuento de delegados después de SC

Gingrich ha ganado 23 de los 25 delegados de Carolina del Sur, gracias a su victoria a nivel estatal y en 6 de los 7 distritos congresionales del estado. Faltan por adjudicar 2 delegados del 1º distrito que seguramente irán para Romney.

No hay acuerdo sobre cómo estaría ahora mismo el reparto general de delegados. Ya sabéis cómo es esto, algunos medios incluyen los votos de miembros del RNC, una especie de superdelegados, y el cálculo de los delegados de Iowa, que en realidad no se deciden hasta junio, varía también según los medios.

Según CNN:

Romney - 31 delegados
Gingrich - 26 delegados
Paul - 10 delegados
Santorum - 8 delegados

Según Associated Press:

Romney - 33 delegados
Gingrich - 25 delegados
Santorum - 14 delegados
Paul - 4 delegados
Huntsman - 2 delegados
Perry - 2 delegados

Se necesitan 1,144 para salir nominado en la convención.

Resultados de la primaria de Carolina del Sur

A pesar del mal tiempo, la participación superó las previsiones, con más de 600,000 votantes, batiendo el récord del duelo Bush v. McCain de 2000.

Con el 100% escrutado:

Newt Gingrich - 243,153 votos 40.4%
Mitt Romney - 167,279 votos 27.8%
Rick Santorum - 102,055 votos 17%
Ron Paul - 77,993 votos 13%
Herman Cain - 6,324 votos 1.1%
Rick Perry - 2,494 votos 0.4%
Jon Huntsman - 1,161 votos 0.2%
Michele Bachmann - 494 votos 0.1%
Gary Johnson - 213 votos 0%

La campaña de Rick Perry en 90 segundos

We Ask America: Gingrich 32%, Romney 28%, Paul 13% en SC

We Ask America:

PPP: Gingrich 35%, Romney 29% en SC

Public Policy Polling:

Thursday may have been one of the most eventful days of the Republican campaign so far, but the state of the race in South Carolina didn't change much. Newt Gingrich continues to lead Mitt Romney by 6 points, 35-29, with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum each tied for third at 15%.

Revelations from the Marianne Gingrich interview haven't taken a toll on Newt's image yet. For the first time in our South Carolina tracking this month his favorability is better than Romney's, with 53% of voters holding a positive opinion of him compared to 51% for his chief competitor.

Gingrich's lead with evangelicals held steady today at 40-22 over Romney. He's also doing well with Tea Party voters (46-21), registered Republicans (38-30), voters describing themselves as very conservative (41-21), men (39-27), and voters in the Upstate (36-25).

Romney is leading with non-evangelicals (39-30), independents (30-26), moderates (44-23), and women (32-31). The problem for him is that all of those groups are a minority within the South Carolina Republican electorate.

Both Gingrich (81%) and Romney (79%) have supporters who are pretty firmly committed to them. 81% of Paul's supporters say they'll definitely vote for him as well. Santorum has the voters most likely to abandon him for one of the more viable contenders in the final 36 hours, with 32% of them saying they could end up voting for someone else. Gingrich is the second choice of 45% of Santorum voters open to changing their minds, compared to 22% for Romney.

Things look good for Newt. He has the lead, his support seems to have more room to grow than Romney's, and so far he's not seeing any ill effects from his ex-wife going to the media. It's important to note though that many average South Carolina voters- the non-political junkies- will get their first exposure to the Marianne Gingrich story in the morning paper or on the news sometime tomorrow. That may or may not end up having a big impact on his numbers. But it's important to keep in mind.

PPP: Gingrich 34%, Romney 28%, Paul 15% en SC

Public Policy Polling hará entrevistas telefónicas al final de cada uno de los días que quedan para la primaria de Carolina del Sur.

Resultados de las entrevistas telefónicas de anoche:

Newt Gingrich led Mitt Romney 34-28 in PPP's South Carolina polling last night, the first of what will be three nights of tracking. Ron Paul at 15%, Rick Santorum at 14%, Rick Perry at 5%, and Buddy Roemer at 3% round out the field.

This is not a case of Romney imploding. His support has been pretty steady in the 28-30% range in our South Carolina polling so far. But Gingrich has risen from 23% to 34% over the last two weeks, benefiting from declining support for Santorum and also from undecided voters moving into his camp.

It's clear that the debate Monday night did a lot to help Gingrich's prospects in the state. 56% of voters say they watched it, and with those folks Gingrich's lead over Romney is 43-27. Romney still has a 29-22 advantage on Gingrich with those who didn't tune in.

Gingrich is starting to consolidate his support with some of the more conservative parts of the South Carolina electorate. He has a 50-18 advantage on Romney with Tea Party voters. He's up 39-23 with those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' And he even has a 37-20 advantage with evangelicals.

Gingrich is clearly flying high. The big question now is whether ABC's interview with his ex-wife tonight will stifle all this momentum. For instance, will his strong support from evangelicals remain intact after they hear accusations that he wanted an 'open marriage?'

Rick Perry's exit from the race shouldn't make a huge difference. He was only polling at 5% and his supporters were evenly divided on their second choice with 26% each picking Gingrich and Romney. It's possible though that his endorsement will cause more of those supporters to move in Gingrich's direction.

Just for fun on this poll we tested the alternative universe in which Stephen Colbert had been allowed on the South Carolina ballot and he gets 8%, putting him in 5th place and ahead of Perry's 6%. Perry joins Jon Huntsman as GOP candidates who have trailed Colbert in our South Carolina polling and then exited the race.

Colbert's 8% is up from 5% in a poll we conducted two weeks ago, making him the only candidate besides Gingrich and Paul whose support has risen since that time.

We will conduct our first post-Perry, post-Marianne Gingrich interviews tonight. Expect fresh numbers sometime between 10 and 11 PM.

Rasmussen confirma la remontada de Gingrich en SC

Rasmussen:

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has now surged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final Rasmussen Reports survey of the South Carolina Republican Primary race with the vote just two days away.

The latest telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in the state finds Gingrich with 33% support to Romney’s 31%. Two days ago, before the last debate, it was Romney by 14 percentage points.

Texas Congressman Ron Paul now runs third with 15% of the vote, followed by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum at 11%. Paul's support is steady while Santorum's support has dropped five points since Monday. At the beginning of the month, just after Santorum’s strong showing in the Iowa caucuses, he ran second to Romney with 24% of the vote.

Texas Governor Rick Perry continues to run last with two percent (2%) support. He has dropped out of the race today and endorsed Gingrich. One percent (1%) of likely primary voters like some other candidate in the contest, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(...) Nearly one-in-three primary voters (31%) in South Carolina say they still could change their minds, and it’s unclear how Perry’s withdrawal, the growing dispute over Romney’s taxes or a televised interview this evening with one of Gingrich’s former wives might impact the contest. Six percent (6%) still haven’t made a choice yet. Sixty-two percent (62%) now are certain of how they will vote on Saturday, including nearly 70% of those supporting Gingrich, Romney, Santorum and Paul. Just 37% of Perry voters have made up their minds at this point.

Gingrich holds a two-to-one lead over Romney among both Very Conservative and Tea Party Republicans in the state. The former Massachusetts governor holds a far more modest lead among Somewhat Conservative voters and those who are not members of the grassroots movement.

Evangelical Christians prefer Gingrich by 37% to 21% margin, with Paul and Santorum at 16% and 15% respectively. Romney leads among all other religious groups.

Despite continuing criticism of Romney’s record as a businessman, 62% of all South Carolina primary voters now feel his business record is primarily a reason to vote for him, while just 22% view it as chiefly a reason to vote against him. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.

By a narrow 36% to 31%, primary voters think Romney would do a better job than Gingrich managing the economy. Seventeen percent (17%) feel Paul would do a better job.

La razón es esta.

ARG: Gingrich 33%, Romney 32% en SC

American Research Group:

Newt Gingrich leads the South Carolina Republican presidential primary with 33% and is followed closely by Mitt Romney with 32%. Ron Paul is in third place with 19% and Rick Santorum is in fourth place with 9%.

In a similar survey conducted January 11-12, 2012, Romney was leading Gingrich 29% to 25%. Since that survey, Romney has gained 3 percentage points and Gingrich has gained 8 percentage points. Gingrich is matching his high of 33% in a November 2011 survey.

Tea Party support has given Gingrich the lead. A total of 43% of Tea Party supporters say they will vote for Gingrich, up from 28% in the January 11-12 survey. Since that survey, Rick Perry has lost 7 percentage points among Tea Party supporters, Paul has lost 3 percentage points, and Romney and Santorum have lost 2 percentage points.

Gingrich leads Romney 37% to 36% among self-identified Republicans, followed by Paul with 15%. Paul leads among independents and Democrats with 33%, followed by Gingrich with 17%, Romney and Perry with 15% each, and Santorum with 11%.

(...) Gingrich leads Romney among men 37% to 36%, followed by Paul with 19%. Among women, Gingrich leads Romney 29% to 28%, followed by Paul with 19%, and Santorum with 14%.

Gingrich leads Romney 35% to 30% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will definitely vote, followed by Paul with 20%.

Perry: suspendo mi campaña y apoyo a Newt Gingrich

El Gobernador Rick Perry ha querido dejar claro que él nunca deja una pelea, y que su retirada es un "repliegue estratégico" porque la misión es más importante que el hombre que la lleve a cabo.

Ha ofrecido su apoyo a Gingrich, al que ha descrito como un "visionario" y "un líder conservador que traerá un cambio real."

Perry se retirará y apoyará a Gingrich

POLITICO.com:

Rick Perry is expected to drop out later this morning at an 11 a.m. press conference, two sources confirmed to POLITICO. He's also expected to endorse Newt Gingrich, the sources confirmed.

Sources told POLITICO that Gingrich and Perry had a secret meeting to discuss a possible endorsement.

Gingrich had been assiduously lobbying Perry officials in recent days, POLITICO has learned. The former House speaker has repeatedly texted Perry manager Joe Allbaugh.

It gives the surging Gingrich a huge boost heading into the final debate tonight, and the South Carolina primary on Saturday, in which he's already closing in on Mitt Romney.

Perry has indicated he plans to support Gingrich, two sources confirm. Gingrich wrote the forward to Perry's states rights' tome, "Fed Up!"

His decision to bow out was first reported by CNN.

NBC/Marist: hay un antes y un después del debate

NBC News:

With two days until South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds a 10-point lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of the GOP contest in that state.

But a day after Monday night’s Republican debate – where Gingrich’s performance was considered strong and Romney’s uneven – the poll also shows the former speaker gaining considerable ground on the GOP frontrunner.

Overall in the two-day survey – conducted Monday and Tuesday – Romney gets the support of 34 percent of likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina, including those who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate.

He’s followed by Gingrich at 24 percent, Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 16 percent, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 14 percent, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 4 percent.

Yet the numbers are strikingly different before and after the debate on Monday, when Romney stumbled over whether he would release his tax records (he later said he would do so in April). Also in that outing, Gingrich drew cheers – and even a standing ovation from some – in response to a question about whether his rhetoric about food stamps and janitorial work for poor children was racially insensitive.

(...) On Monday before the debate, Romney led Gingrich in the poll by 15 points, 37 percent to 22 percent. But on Tuesday, that advantage narrowed to just five points, 31 percent to 26 percent.

“The numbers on Tuesday were very different than the numbers on Monday,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey.

And they were especially different among the most conservative segments of the GOP electorate in South Carolina.

On Monday, Gingrich held a five-point lead over Romney among those describing themselves as “very conservative,” 32 percent to 27 percent, with Santorum getting 24 percent.

But the next day, Gingrich’s percentage with this group jumped up to 35 percent, Santorum’s declined to 20 percent and Romney’s sunk to 19 percent.

Among Tea Party supporters on Monday, Romney edged Gingrich, 35 percent to 27 percent. But on Tuesday, the numbers flipped – with Gingrich at 34 percent and Romney at 27 percent.