Balance de las Primarias Republicanas de 2012

Ayer concluyeron oficialmente las primarias presidenciales republicanas de 2012 con la esperada victoria de Mitt Romney en Utah con el 93% de los votos. El ex Gobernador de Massachusetts se llevó los 40 delegados en juego, sumando un total de 1,512 delegados, según Associated Press. Supera en 368 delegados los 1,144 necesarios para salir nominado en la primera votación de la convención, y es probable que se haga también con una mayoría de los delegados de los candidatos que ya han renunciado a competir en la convención (Santorum, Gingrich y Huntsman). El único competidor que sigue en activo, Ron Paul, suma 158 delegados.

Por delegados,



Por estados ganados,



Romney (37 estados): Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nueva York, Carolina del Norte, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Dakota del Sur, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Virginia Occidental, Wisconsin y Wyoming.

Santorum (11 estados): Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Dakota del Norte, Oklahoma y Tennessee.

Gingrich (2 estados): Georgia y Carolina del Sur.

Por voto popular,

Gobernador Mitt Romney - 9,620,460 votos
Senador Rick Santorum - 3,898,874 votos
Speaker Newt Gingrich - 2,713,417 votos
Congresista Ron Paul - 2,039,214 votos
Gobernador Jon Huntsman - 84,693 votos
Gobernador Rick Perry - 54,769 votos
Congresista Michele Bachmann - 41,333 votos
Gobernador Buddy Roemer - 28,008 votos
Herman Cain - 13,629 votos
Gobernador Gary Johnson - 4,364 votos

Buddy Roemer tira la toalla

Sí, puede que lo hayamos olvidado,  pero el ex Gobernador de Louisiana seguía siendo oficialmente candidato a la Presidencia. El ex demócrata convertido en republicano reformista se había declarado candidato independiente después de fracasar en su intento de conseguir la nominación republicana con una plataforma populista de denuncia de los grupos de intereses especiales que dominan la política. Sin dinero e incapaz de atraer la atención de los medios y el público, hoy se ha dado por vencido.

USA Today:

Buddy Roemer has ended his presidential campaign -- again.

The former Louisiana governor and Democrat-turned-Republican said on his website that he's giving up his bid for the White House as an independent. In February, he dropped his GOP campaign.

"After 17 months of a wonderful campaign, the lack of ballot access in all 50 states makes the quest impossible for now," Roemer said, vowing to continue his fight against special interests in politics.

Roemer, who was never invited to any of the major televised GOP primary debates, had a longer than long shot chance. He gained a following on Twitter with his posts about the dangers of big money in campaigns.

Resultados de la primaria de Puerto Rico

Con el 83% escrutado:

Mitt Romney 98,375 votos 82.88%
Rick Santorum 9,524 votos 8.02%
Buddy Roemer 2,622 votos 2.21%
Newt Gingrich 2,431 votos 2.05%
Fred Karger 1,702 votos 1.43%
Ron Paul 1,452 votos 1.22%
Otros 2,590 votos 2.18%

PPP: Gingrich 34%, Romney 28%, Paul 15% en SC

Public Policy Polling hará entrevistas telefónicas al final de cada uno de los días que quedan para la primaria de Carolina del Sur.

Resultados de las entrevistas telefónicas de anoche:

Newt Gingrich led Mitt Romney 34-28 in PPP's South Carolina polling last night, the first of what will be three nights of tracking. Ron Paul at 15%, Rick Santorum at 14%, Rick Perry at 5%, and Buddy Roemer at 3% round out the field.

This is not a case of Romney imploding. His support has been pretty steady in the 28-30% range in our South Carolina polling so far. But Gingrich has risen from 23% to 34% over the last two weeks, benefiting from declining support for Santorum and also from undecided voters moving into his camp.

It's clear that the debate Monday night did a lot to help Gingrich's prospects in the state. 56% of voters say they watched it, and with those folks Gingrich's lead over Romney is 43-27. Romney still has a 29-22 advantage on Gingrich with those who didn't tune in.

Gingrich is starting to consolidate his support with some of the more conservative parts of the South Carolina electorate. He has a 50-18 advantage on Romney with Tea Party voters. He's up 39-23 with those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' And he even has a 37-20 advantage with evangelicals.

Gingrich is clearly flying high. The big question now is whether ABC's interview with his ex-wife tonight will stifle all this momentum. For instance, will his strong support from evangelicals remain intact after they hear accusations that he wanted an 'open marriage?'

Rick Perry's exit from the race shouldn't make a huge difference. He was only polling at 5% and his supporters were evenly divided on their second choice with 26% each picking Gingrich and Romney. It's possible though that his endorsement will cause more of those supporters to move in Gingrich's direction.

Just for fun on this poll we tested the alternative universe in which Stephen Colbert had been allowed on the South Carolina ballot and he gets 8%, putting him in 5th place and ahead of Perry's 6%. Perry joins Jon Huntsman as GOP candidates who have trailed Colbert in our South Carolina polling and then exited the race.

Colbert's 8% is up from 5% in a poll we conducted two weeks ago, making him the only candidate besides Gingrich and Paul whose support has risen since that time.

We will conduct our first post-Perry, post-Marianne Gingrich interviews tonight. Expect fresh numbers sometime between 10 and 11 PM.

PPP: ligera ventaja de Romney en SC; Paul subiendo

Public Policy Polling:

Mitt Romney continues to hold a modest lead in South Carolina's Republican primary for President. He's at 29% to 24% for Newt Gingrich, 15% for Ron Paul, 14% for Rick Santorum, 6% for Rick Perry, 5% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Buddy Roemer.

Things haven't changed too much at the top in the last week. Romney is down 1 point from his pre-New Hampshire standing, while Gingrich has gained a point. There's more movement in the middle. Paul has gained 6 points to move into 3rd place, while Santorum has dropped by 5 points. Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman have each picked up a single point and remain in 5th and 6th place respectively.

Why is Romney winning South Carolina? Voters there are overwhelmingly focused on the economy this year and that's working to his advantage. 39% say jobs and the economy are their top issue, closely followed by 34% who pick government spending and reducing the debt. Asked who they trust most on economic issues 35% pick Romney to 25% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, and 10 for Santorum. And despite the attacks on it this week Romney's business background is an asset for him. 58% have a favorable opinion of his record in business to just 27% with a negative view of it.

Another reason Romney's doing well and that Santorum's doing poorly is that social issues just aren't at the front of voters' minds this year...and Romney's neutralizing him on that front anyway. Just 4% of voters say that's their top concern this year. And when it comes to the candidate voters trust most on social issues Santorum only beats Romney 23-21 with Gingrich at 19% and Paul at 14%. Romney's also basically running even with evangelicals, getting 27% to 28% for Gingrich and 17% for Santorum. It's a pretty safe bet that he's going to win the state if he can maintain that standing. His religion continues not to be too much of an issue with only 23% of voters saying they'd be uncomfortable with a Mormon as President.

Three other reasons Romney continues to be the favorite in South Carolina:

-South Carolinians, more so than we've found in New Hampshire and Iowa, are concerned about electability. 50% say they're most concerned about a candidate's ability to beat Barack Obama, while 37% place a bigger priority on the candidate's positions on the issues. New Hampshire voters were more concerned about issue stances by a 55-37 margin on that question and Iowa voters were by a 54/31 spread. The more voters care about electability, the better Romney's chances are and he leads Gingrich 35-27 with those folks.

-There's a growing sense of inevitability that Romney will win the nomination. 46% think he'll get the nod to 16% for Gingrich with no one else even hitting double digits...voters generally like to pick a winner and there's a very strong feeling in South Carolina that will be Romney.

-South Carolina is likely to have an older electorate than both Iowa and New Hampshire did, and Romney's greatest strength continues to be with senior citizens. He's up 35-25 on Gingrich with them and we project that they will make up almost 30% of the vote.

Resultados de la primaria de New Hampshire

Con el 95% escrutado:

Romney 95,669 votos 39.4%
Paul 55,455 votos 22.8%
Huntsman 40,903 votos 16.8%
Gingrich 22,921 votos 9.4%
Santorum 22,708 votos 9.3%
Perry 1,709 votos 0.7%
Roemer 919 votos 0.4%

Romney se convierte en uno de los candidatos más votados de la historia de la primaria republicana de New Hampshire. Si mal no recuerdo, al menos en la época moderna, sólo superado por los espectaculares 115,545 votos que logró McCain en 2000. Supera los 72,983 votos que obtuvo Reagan en 1980 y que en su día supusieron una de las mayores victorias hasta ese momento.

Y se convierte en el primer candidato republicano que, no siendo Presidente en ejercicio, consigue el doblete ganando Iowa y New Hampshire.

Encuesta de Suffolk para NH

Mitt Romney 37% [33%]
Ron Paul - 18% [20%]
Jon Huntsman - 16% [13%]
Rick Santorum - 11% [10%]
Newt Gingrich - 9% [11%]
Buddy Roemer - 1% [2%]
Rick Perry - 1% [1%]
Indecisos - 7% [12%]

Baja el número de indecisos, y parecen estar optando por Romney y Huntsman. Romney sube (4 puntos en un día) por primera vez en una semana, coincidiendo con los ataques más duros de sus rivales y la prensa.

Encuesta de Suffolk para NH

Mitt Romney - 33%
Ron Paul - 20%
Jon Huntsman - 13%
Newt Gingrich - 11%
Rick Santorum - 10%
Buddy Roemer - 2%
Rick Perry - 1%
Indecisos - 12%

Romney baja (2 puntos en un día, 8 puntos en cinco días) pero ninguno de sus cuatro perseguidores supera claramente el 20% ni baja del 10%. Hay un atasco de candidatos. Ron Paul sigue igual que ayer; Huntsman, Gingrich y Santorum suben dos puntos cada uno.

Hay un 12% de indecisos todavía. Así que una sorpresa a lo Gary Hart todavía no es del todo imposible para Paul o Huntsman, aunque haría falta una tormenta de nieve como la de aquel día.

PPP: Romney se mantiene fuerte en NH; sube Huntsman

Public Policy Polling:

Mitt Romney continues to be headed for a comfortable win in New Hampshire. PPP's final poll there finds him with 35% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Jon Huntsman, 12% for Newt Gingrich, 11% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Buddy Roemer, and 1% for Rick Perry.

Romney's support has been remarkably consistent over the course of PPP's three Granite State tracking polls, never straying from 35-36%. He's the most popular of the candidates in the state, with a 60/34 favorability rating. And he also has the most committed supporters...85% of them say they're definitely going to vote for him and when you look at the race just among those whose minds are completely made up his lead over Paul expands to 40-19.

The excitement in New Hampshire on Tuesday night will probably be the battle for second place. There Huntsman has the momentum. His support is up from 12% to 16%, while Paul's has declined from 21% to 18% over the last week and a half. Huntsman's favorability (55/30) is far better than Paul's (43/51) and 13% of voters list Huntsman as their 2nd choice compared to only 5% for Paul.

All of these same arguments for Huntsman potentially overtaking Paul could have been applied to Santorum overtaking Paul on our Iowa poll last weekend and of course that's what did happen when it was finally time to count the votes.

Even if Huntsman does pull the second place finish though it's hard to see that translating into much success further down the line. Among actual Republican voters Huntsman finds himself in 5th place at just 11%. But 40% or more of the electorate on Tuesday will be non-Republican and Huntsman's greatest strength is with Obama voters, among whom he gets 35% to 25% for Paul and 19% for Romney. The problem for him is there won't likely be another primary where 25% of the voters chose Obama in 2008.

UNH: Romney 41%, Paul 17%, Huntsman 11% en NH

University of New Hampshire:

In the final WMUR New Hampshire Primary poll, Mitt Romney holds a 24 percentage point lead over his closest rival -- 41% of likely Republican Primary voters said they would vote for Romney. But there is a fierce battle for second and third place with Ron Paul getting 17% of the vote, followed by Jon Huntsman (11%), Rick Santorum (11%), and Newt Gingrich (8%).

“All of the candidates behind Romney have a good chance finishing anywhere between second and fifth place,” said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center. “New Hampshire voters historically have made up their minds in the final days before the election and campaign activities in the final days matter, but this will be harder for Gingrich and Santorum as they are not running ads in the campaign’s final days.” Rick Perry (1%), Buddy Roemer (1%), and Michele Bachmann (1%) each get 1% of the vote.

But while there are only three days until the Primary, voters are taking their time deciding who they will support, though likely NH Republican Primary voters have begun to solidify their support. In the most recent poll, 44% say they have definitely decided who they are going to vote for, 27% are leaning towards a candidate, and 29% are still trying to decide.

PPP: Romney 30%, Gingrich 23%, Santorum 19% en SC

Public Policy Polling:

Mitt Romney's taken a modest lead in South Carolina. He's at 30% there to 23% for Newt Gingrich and 19% for Rick Santorum. None of the other candidates hit double digits- Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1% round out the field.

Romney's benefiting from very strong personal favorability numbers in the state- 60% of voters see him favorably to only 29% with a negative opinion, numbers that far outstrip anything he ever posted in our Iowa polling. And he also has the most committed support out of the leading contenders. 67% of his supporters say they'll definitely vote for him, compared to only 59% of Gingrich and 44% of Santorum's voters who say that. Among 'solidly committed' voters Romney's lead expands to double digits at 37% to 26% for Gingrich and 15% for Santorum.

Gingrich may be in second place right now but the candidate who would have the best chance of beating Romney in South Carolina is Santorum. He edges out Romney as the candidate with the best favorability rating at 63/21. We tested hypothetical head to head match ups between Romney and the other leading Republican candidates in the instance that were some drop outs before the primary. Romney defeats Gingrich handily in such a match, 49-35. But Santorum runs only slightly behind Romney at 45-40.

There are two things that taken together might make it possible for Santorum to upset Romney in South Carolina. The first is both Gingrich and Perry dropping out. Gingrich's voters prefer Santorum over Romney 52-37 and Perry's do by a 54-41 margin. Either of them dropping out would give Santorum a big boost.

The other thing that would give Santorum the potential for an upset is a Jim DeMint endorsement. 31% of voters say his nod would make them more likely to vote for a candidate. That compares to 15% for Lindsey Graham, 14% for Nikki Haley, 13% for Mark Sanford, and 11% for John McCain. There's no doubt who has the greatest potential to be a king maker in the Palmetto State.

Encuesta de Suffolk para NH

Suffolk University:

Mitt Romney 39% [40%]
Ron Paul 17% [17%]
Newt Gingrich 10% [9%]
Jon Huntsman 9% [8%]
Rick Santorum 9% [11%]
Rick Perry 1% [1%]
Buddy Roemer 0% [0%]
Indecisos 15% [15%]

Encuesta de Suffolk para New Hampshire

Suffolk University:

Romney - 41%
Paul - 18%
Santorum - 8%
Gingrich - 7%
Huntsman - 7%
Roemer - 1%
Perry - 0%
Indecisos - 17%

Caucus de Iowa: victoria de Romney por 8 votos

Mitt Romney 30,015 votos 24.6%
Rick Santorum 30,007 votos 24.5%
Ron Paul 26,219 votos 21.4%
Newt Gingrich 16,251 votos 13.3%
Rick Perry 12,604 votos 10.3%
Michele Bachmann 6,073 votos 5%
Jon Huntsman 745 votos 0.6%
Herman Cain 58 votos 0.1%
Buddy Roemer 31 votos 0%

PPP: Romney 36%, Paul 21%, Gingrich 13% en NH

Public Policy Polling:

PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds everything pretty much as it was a week and a half ago with one exception: Newt Gingrich's support continues to plummet in the state, allowing Ron Paul to move into a clear second place.

Mitt Romney continues to have a solid lead in the state with 36% to 21% for Paul, 13% for Gingrich, 12% for Jon Huntsman, 7% for Michele Bachmann, and 3% each for Buddy Roemer, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum. Every candidate is within 2 points of their standing when PPP polled New Hampshire 2 weekends ago with the exception of Gingrich, who has dropped from 17% to 13%.

There's little to suggest anyone could come from behind to defeat Romney in New Hampshire. He has the best favorability numbers in the state at 63/32 and 78% of his supporters are strongly committed to him, higher even than Paul's number on that front. 44% of voters think he has the best chance of beating Obama with Gingrich the next closest at 11%. 40% think he has run the strongest campaign in the state, with the next closest Paul at 15%. And there's a sense of inevitability about him- 47% think he will win the state 13% for Paul with no one else in double digits. Romney's even winning the Tea Party vote 26-20 over Gingrich, a feat he's not managing in too many states.

Paul's second place standing in New Hampshire is being driven by the same groups he's doing well with in Iowa: young people and non-Republicans. With voters under 45 Paul actually leads Romney by a 27-24 margin. But Romney is destroying Paul 46-11 with seniors, accounting for most of his overall advantage. With non-Republicans, almost 40% of the vote in New Hampshire, the race is very close with Romney at 27%, Paul at 24%, and Huntsman at 21%. But with actual Republican voters Romney has the 42-19 advantage.

UNH: Romney 39%, Gingrich 17%, Paul 17% en NH

The Boston Globe:

Newt Gingrich’s surge has slowed and Ron Paul has gained momentum, but Mitt Romney remains the clear front-runner in New Hampshire with a little more than two weeks until the nation’s first primary, according to a new Boston Globe poll.

Romney has the support of 39 percent of the state’s likely Republican voters, a drop of 3 percentage points since last month but a strong indication he is weathering Gingrich’s national comeback in a state vital to his campaign.

In the closely watched contest for second place, Gingrich and Paul are tied with 17 percent each, just ahead of Jon Huntsman, who has the support of 11 percent of likely Republican voters.

But as the race hurtles toward the Jan. 10 primary, Paul has been gaining the most in New Hampshire. His support has risen by 5 percentage points since November, while Huntsman has picked up 3 percentage points in the last month and Gingrich has gained 2.

The momentum for Paul raises the prospect that he, not Gingrich, could emerge as the strongest early challenger to Romney if the Texas congressman can hold on to his lead in Iowa and capture second place in New Hampshire.

The remainder of the Republican field remains largely sidelined in New Hampshire. Rick Santorum is in fourth place, with support from 3 percent of the state’s likely Republican voters, followed by Michele Bachmann at 2 percent and Rick Perry at 1 percent.

Buddy Roemer, a former Louisiana governor, and Gary Johnson, a former New Mexico governor, who have campaigned in New Hampshire but been ignored nationally, each drew less than 1 percent in the poll.

The live telephone survey of 543 likely Republican voters was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center between Dec. 12 and Dec. 19, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

(...) Despite Romney’s lead, the contest in New Hampshire remains in flux. Only a quarter of likely voters have definitely made up their minds, and nearly half of all voters remain undecided.

ARG: triple empate en Iowa

American Research Group:

12/19-22/11; 600 likely Republican caucus-goers, 4% margin of error

Iowa

2012 President: Republican Caucus

Paul 21%
Romney 20%
Gingrich 19%
Perry 9%
Bachmann 8%
Huntsman 6%
Santorum 4%
Roemer 1%

ARG: ventaja firme de Romney en NH; Paul sube con fuerza

Encuesta de American Research Group:

ARG New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

•Mitt Romney 35% (33%) {30%} [29%] (32%)
•Ron Paul 21% (12%) {12%} [4%] (8%)
•Newt Gingrich 16% (22%) {4%} [7%] (8%)
•Jon Huntsman 13% (8%) {10%} [0%] (0%)
•Michele Bachmann 4% (2%) {7%} [12%] (1%)
•Rick Perry 2% (2%) {13%} [2%]
•Rick Santorum 1% (1%) {2%} [2%] (0%)
•Buddy Roemer 0% (1%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
•Gary Johnson 0% (1%) {0%} [0%] (1%)
•Undecided 8% (9%) {12%} [18%] (8%)

Buddy Roemer, muy activo en New Hampshire

Aunque los medios no le prestan atención y las encuestas no registran su candidatura, el Gobernador Buddy Roemer continúa con su voluntariosa campaña contra los intereses especiales.

En la última semana ha hecho una media de dos eventos electorales por día en NH, generalmente en viviendas particulares con votantes que se pueden contar con los dedos de las manos.

Acepta todas las invitaciones. En lugar de ver una película después de una cena en casa con amigos, se puede invitar a Buddy Roemer a dar una charla.

Como ejemplo este house party en Deerfield, al sur de New Hampshire.

ARG: Gingrich 50%, Romney 19% en Florida

The Corner:

Results from an American Research Group poll of likely GOP primary voters in Florida: Newt Gingrich (50 percent), Mitt Romney (19 percent), Herman Cain (10 percent), Jon Huntsman (3 percent), Rick Perry and Ron Paul (2 percent), Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and Buddy Roemer (1 percent).