¿Puede Gary Johnson convertir New Mexico en competitivo?

Con una muestra muy favorable a Obama que incluye 52% de demócratas, 33% de republicanos y 12% de independientes (en 2008 hubo 44% D, 28% R , 28% I), PPP otorga a Obama solo 5 puntos de ventaja (49%-44%) en New Mexico. Pero lo que es verdaderamente interesante en el estudio es que la inclusión del libertario Gary Johnson, que si en algún sitio puede tener impacto es en New Mexico, donde fue Gobernador durante ocho años, perjudica un poco más a Obama que a Romney.

Gary Johnson's potential impact on the race in New Mexico just keeps on declining. In December he was polling at 23%. By April that was down to 15% and now we find him at only 13%. Interestingly he hurts Obama a little bit more than Romney, pulling the President's lead down to 42-38. He gets 24% of the independent vote, and a lot of his support is coming from more Democratic leaning independents.

Balance de las Primarias Republicanas de 2012

Ayer concluyeron oficialmente las primarias presidenciales republicanas de 2012 con la esperada victoria de Mitt Romney en Utah con el 93% de los votos. El ex Gobernador de Massachusetts se llevó los 40 delegados en juego, sumando un total de 1,512 delegados, según Associated Press. Supera en 368 delegados los 1,144 necesarios para salir nominado en la primera votación de la convención, y es probable que se haga también con una mayoría de los delegados de los candidatos que ya han renunciado a competir en la convención (Santorum, Gingrich y Huntsman). El único competidor que sigue en activo, Ron Paul, suma 158 delegados.

Por delegados,



Por estados ganados,



Romney (37 estados): Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nueva York, Carolina del Norte, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Dakota del Sur, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Virginia Occidental, Wisconsin y Wyoming.

Santorum (11 estados): Alabama, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Dakota del Norte, Oklahoma y Tennessee.

Gingrich (2 estados): Georgia y Carolina del Sur.

Por voto popular,

Gobernador Mitt Romney - 9,620,460 votos
Senador Rick Santorum - 3,898,874 votos
Speaker Newt Gingrich - 2,713,417 votos
Congresista Ron Paul - 2,039,214 votos
Gobernador Jon Huntsman - 84,693 votos
Gobernador Rick Perry - 54,769 votos
Congresista Michele Bachmann - 41,333 votos
Gobernador Buddy Roemer - 28,008 votos
Herman Cain - 13,629 votos
Gobernador Gary Johnson - 4,364 votos

Resultados de la primaria de Carolina del Sur

A pesar del mal tiempo, la participación superó las previsiones, con más de 600,000 votantes, batiendo el récord del duelo Bush v. McCain de 2000.

Con el 100% escrutado:

Newt Gingrich - 243,153 votos 40.4%
Mitt Romney - 167,279 votos 27.8%
Rick Santorum - 102,055 votos 17%
Ron Paul - 77,993 votos 13%
Herman Cain - 6,324 votos 1.1%
Rick Perry - 2,494 votos 0.4%
Jon Huntsman - 1,161 votos 0.2%
Michele Bachmann - 494 votos 0.1%
Gary Johnson - 213 votos 0%

UNH: Romney 39%, Gingrich 17%, Paul 17% en NH

The Boston Globe:

Newt Gingrich’s surge has slowed and Ron Paul has gained momentum, but Mitt Romney remains the clear front-runner in New Hampshire with a little more than two weeks until the nation’s first primary, according to a new Boston Globe poll.

Romney has the support of 39 percent of the state’s likely Republican voters, a drop of 3 percentage points since last month but a strong indication he is weathering Gingrich’s national comeback in a state vital to his campaign.

In the closely watched contest for second place, Gingrich and Paul are tied with 17 percent each, just ahead of Jon Huntsman, who has the support of 11 percent of likely Republican voters.

But as the race hurtles toward the Jan. 10 primary, Paul has been gaining the most in New Hampshire. His support has risen by 5 percentage points since November, while Huntsman has picked up 3 percentage points in the last month and Gingrich has gained 2.

The momentum for Paul raises the prospect that he, not Gingrich, could emerge as the strongest early challenger to Romney if the Texas congressman can hold on to his lead in Iowa and capture second place in New Hampshire.

The remainder of the Republican field remains largely sidelined in New Hampshire. Rick Santorum is in fourth place, with support from 3 percent of the state’s likely Republican voters, followed by Michele Bachmann at 2 percent and Rick Perry at 1 percent.

Buddy Roemer, a former Louisiana governor, and Gary Johnson, a former New Mexico governor, who have campaigned in New Hampshire but been ignored nationally, each drew less than 1 percent in the poll.

The live telephone survey of 543 likely Republican voters was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center between Dec. 12 and Dec. 19, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

(...) Despite Romney’s lead, the contest in New Hampshire remains in flux. Only a quarter of likely voters have definitely made up their minds, and nearly half of all voters remain undecided.

Gary Johnson buscará la nominación del Partido Libertario

POLITICO.com:

Gary Johnson will quit the Republican primaries and seek the Libertarian Party nomination instead, POLITICO has learned.

The former two-term New Mexico governor, whose campaign for the GOP nomination never caught fire, will make the announcement at a press conference in Santa Fe on Dec. 28. Johnson state directors will be informed of his plans on a campaign conference call Tuesday night, a Johnson campaign source told POLITICO.

The move has been expected for weeks — Johnson had run a New Hampshire-centric effort that never got him past a blip in the polls. He appeared at only two nationally televised debates, and only one in which other major candidates took part.

Johnson expressed deep disillusionment with the process as his libertarian message failed to catch fire and he received almost no attention for his bid. He soon began flirting with the Libertarians when it became clear that he was gaining no traction in GOP primaries.

PPP: Romney domina en New Hampshire

Public Policy Polling:

Mitt Romney has a significant lead in New Hampshire, getting 35% there to 19% for Ron Paul, 17% for Newt Gingrich, 13% for Jon Huntsman, 5% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Rick Santorum, 2% for Rick Perry, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

Romney's doing well with pretty much every key segment of the Republican electorate in the state. It's a rare place where he's winning Tea Party voters, 29-21 over Ron Paul. He's getting a full 50% of the vote with seniors, who will be a significant part of the vote. Voters think he has run the strongest campaign in the state (by a 35-12 margin over Paul), that he has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama (by a 38-14 margin over Gingrich), and there's also a certain feeling of inevitability about his victory in New Hampshire. 41% think he will win the state's primary to 12% for Gingrich with no one else in double digits.

Our New Hampshire poll reinforces our Iowa survey from last night showing Newt Gingrich's support fading away. Only 42% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative one. Gingrich is less popular in New Hampshire now than he was in the spring when he had a 45/36 favorability. And there's increasingly a sense that he doesn't have strong principles- only 34% think he does while 41% think he does not, numbers that pale in comparison to how Romney, Paul, and Huntsman come out on that question.

Huntsman's worked his way into double digits in New Hampshire but there's not much evidence he can continue to build on his support. The main group he's doing well with is the 21% of likely primary voters who report having voted for Barack Obama in 2008, where he has a 35-24 lead over Paul with Romney at 18%. But he's at only 8% with actual Republican voters, he's only the second choice for 10% of primary voters, and his favorability rating is still under 50% at 47/34. None of that speaks to his having much of a chance to catch up with Romney.

Paul gets a second place finish to complement his lead in Iowa and he's doing it with a similar formula in the Granite State. Among voters under 45 he's running only slightly behind Romney at 30-25. And with non-Republicans he's practically running even, getting 25% to 26% for Romney and 22% for Huntsman.

ARG: ventaja firme de Romney en NH; Paul sube con fuerza

Encuesta de American Research Group:

ARG New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

•Mitt Romney 35% (33%) {30%} [29%] (32%)
•Ron Paul 21% (12%) {12%} [4%] (8%)
•Newt Gingrich 16% (22%) {4%} [7%] (8%)
•Jon Huntsman 13% (8%) {10%} [0%] (0%)
•Michele Bachmann 4% (2%) {7%} [12%] (1%)
•Rick Perry 2% (2%) {13%} [2%]
•Rick Santorum 1% (1%) {2%} [2%] (0%)
•Buddy Roemer 0% (1%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
•Gary Johnson 0% (1%) {0%} [0%] (1%)
•Undecided 8% (9%) {12%} [18%] (8%)

PPP: Ron Paul puede ganar en Iowa

Public Policy Polling:

There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.

Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he's also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he's now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.

Paul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52/38) to +30 (61/31). There are a lot of parallels between Paul's strength in Iowa and Barack Obama's in 2008- he's doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters:

-59% of likely voters participated in the 2008 Republican caucus and they support Gingrich 26-18. But among the 41% of likely voters who are 'new' for 2012 Paul leads Gingrich 25-17 with Romney at 16%. Paul is doing a good job of bringing out folks who haven't done this before.

-He's also very strong with young voters. Among likely caucus goers under 45 Paul is up 30-16 on Gingrich. With those over 45, Gingrich leads him 26-15 with Romney at 17%.

-Among Republicans Gingrich leads Paul 25-17. But with voters who identify as Democrats or independents, 21% of the electorate in a year with no action on the Democratic side, Paul leads Gingrich 34-14 with Romney at 17%.

PPP: Gingrich 27%, Paul 18%, Romney 16% en Iowa

Public Policy Polling:

Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP's newest poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters with 27% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Rick Perry, 6% for Rick Santorum, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has gained 19 points since PPP's last poll of the race in early October. Also showing momentum are Paul whose support is up 8% and Bachmann whose support is up 5%. Romney has dropped 6 points since then with the other candidates mostly standing in place.

Gingrich's rise to the top is being fueled by strong support from seniors and the Tea Party. With voters over 65 he's at 37% leading Romney's 18% and Paul's 11% by 19 and 26 points respectively. With Tea Party voters Gingrich is at 35% with Bachmann actually coming in at second with 23%, Paul in third at 14%, and Romney all the way back at just 4%.

Paul's benefiting from the lack of action on the Democratic side this year. 20% of likely caucus goers are either Democrats or independents and with them he's leading the way with 28% to 18% for Gingrich and 13% for Romney and Bachmann. He's also very strong with younger voters, getting 23% with those under 45 to 21% for Gingrich, 16% for Bachmann, and 15% for Romney.

PPP: Gingrich le saca 30 puntos (!) a Romney en Florida

Public Policy Polling:

Newt Gingrich's momentum is continuing to build, and he now leads Mitt Romney by over 25 points in both Florida and Montana.

In Florida Gingrich is at 47% to 17% for Romney, 15% for Herman Cain, 5% for Ron Paul, 4% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Jon Huntsman, 2% for Rick Perry, 1% for Rick Santorum, and 0% for Gary Johnson.



In Montana Gingrich is at 37% to 12% for Paul, 11% for Romney, 10% for Bachmann and Cain, 5% for Perry, 3% for Huntsman, and 1% for Johnson and Santorum.

These two states really exemplify one of the key emerging trends in the Republican race- Gingrich isn't just rising, Romney's also falling. His 17% in Florida is down 13 points from 30% when we polled the state in late September. His 11% in Montana is down 11 points from 22% when we polled the state in June.

(...) The biggest reason for Newt Gingrich's rise is that he's picked up the voters of Herman Cain and Rick Perry as their campaigns have fallen apart. But these numbers make it pretty clear he's doing more than that- some of Mitt Romney's '25%' is starting to fall off and move toward Newt as well.

Confirma lo que ya señalaba la encuesta de InsiderAdvantage.

Fox News: Gingrich y Romney, empatados

Encuesta nacional de Fox News para la primaria republicana:

PPP: tenemos nuevo front-runner, otra vez

Public Policy Polling:

Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP's national polling. He's at 28% to 25% for Herman Cain and 18% for Mitt Romney. The rest of the Republican field is increasingly looking like a bunch of also rans: Rick Perry is at 6%, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum each at 1%.

Compared to a month ago Gingrich is up 13 points, while Cain has dropped by 5 points and Romney has gone down by 4. Although a fair amount of skepticism remains about the recent allegations against Cain there is no doubt they are taking a toll on his image- his net favorability is down 25 points over the last month from +51 (66/15) to only +26 (57/31). What is perhaps a little more surprising is that Romney's favorability is at a 6 month low in our polling too with only 48% of voters seeing him favorably to 39% with a negative opinion.

Gingrich's lead caps an amazing comeback he's made over the last 5 months. In June his favorability nationally with Republican voters plummeted all the way to 36/49. Now he's at 68/23, representing a 58 point improvement in his spread since then. As recently as August Gingrich was mired in single digits at 7%, and even in September he was at just 10%. He's climbed 18 points in less than 2 months.

There's reason to think that if Cain continues to fade, Gingrich will continue to gain. Among Cain's supporters 73% have a favorable opinion of Gingrich to only 21% with a negative one. That compares to a 33/55 spread for Romney with Cain voters and a 32/53 one for Perry. They like Gingrich a whole lot more than they do the other serious candidates in the race.

No recuerdo otra campaña en que hasta media docena de candidatos hayan ocupado la posición del front-runner en algún momento: Romney, Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich...

Kellyanne Conway: máxima fluidez en Iowa

POLITICO.com:

The race for Iowa is beginning in earnest with less than two months to go until the caucuses, and new polling numbers of the Hawkeye State shows it remains fluid - but with Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney ahead of the rest of the field.

The survey, taken by Kellyanne Conway's Polling Company for private clients, included hard support (definitely backing a candidate), moderately hard support (probably backing a candidate) and leaners.

Including all three categories, Cain leads the field with 20 percent, but is in a statistical dead heat with Gingrich, who gets 19 percent. Romney gets 14 percent.

Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul are tied for 10 percent, Rick Perry gets 5 percent, Rick Santorum 4 percent, Jon Huntsman 2 percent and Gary Johnson 1 percent.

Some 13 percent were undecided and 1 percent refused to answer. There were 501 phone interviews taken Nov. 11 to 13 of likely GOP caucus-goers.

Harvard/St. Anselm: Romney, claro favorito en NH; Cain subiendo

The Page:

Romney 38%
Cain 20%
Paul 13%
Gingrich 5%
Huntsman 4%
Perry 4%
Bachmann 3%
Johnson 1%
Santorum 1%

A new poll by the Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard University and the New Hampshire Institute of Politics at Saint Anselm College shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading the candidate field with 38 percent among likely voters in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. Businessman Herman Cain (20%) and U.S. Representative Ron Paul (13%) follow, with all remaining candidates polling at 5 percent or less.

The candidate ballot test appears far from settled; only 10 percent say that they are “definitely” voting for Mitt Romney, 6 percent say the same about Herman Cain -- and only 14 percent report they are “very satisfied” with the field of candidates.

CPAC Florida

Lo más interesante fueron los golpes que se lanzaron los dos favoritos.

Romney bromeó con la respuesta dada por Perry sobre inmigración en el debate: "Mi amigo el Gobernador Perry dice que si no otorgas beneficios a los inmigrantes ilegales, no tienes corazón... que te opongas a la inmigración ilegal no significa que no tengas corazón, significa que tienes corazón y cerebro."

Perry dijo que los americanos no necesitan elegir al más habilidoso debatiendo, sino al que sea más fiel a los valores conservadores. Describió a Romney como un político del "gran gobierno" y criticó la reforma santiaria de Massachsuetts: "El equivocado mandato sanitario del Gobernador Romney ralentizó el crecimiento de los ingresos y le costó a Massachusetts 18,000 empleos. Si el RomneyCare costó 18,000 empleos, pensar sólo en lo que le ocurrirá al resto de este país si el ObamaCare es aplicado."





Otros oradores:

Ron Paul
Gary Johnson
Jon Huntsman
Newt Gingrich

Debate en Orlando

Rick Perry empezó a la ofensiva, acusando a Mitt Romney de malinterpretar sus opiniones sobre la Seguridad Social y cuestionando sus posiciones en política educativa. Perry intentó recuperar la acusación de "flip-flopper" contra Romney en temas como la sanidad, el control de armas o el aborto. "Esperaremos hasta mañana y veremos con qué Mitt Romney estamos hablando realmente esta noche," dijo después de hacerse un pequeño lío.

Romney le contestó recordando que se ha mantenido firme en todas las posiciones escritas en su libro 'No Apology', mientras que Perry ha matizado o se ha distanciado de algunas de las cosas que escribió en su 'Fed Up!'.

"Hay un Rick Perry ahí fuera diciendo que el gobierno federal no debería estar en el negocio de las pensiones de los jubilados, que eso es inconstitucional. Así que será mejor que encuentres a ese Perry y le digas que deje de decir eso... Una razón para elegirme a mí es que sé lo que defiendo. Lo he escrito. Las palabras importan, y yo tengo la experiencia para hacer funcionar otra vez a este país."

El enfrentamiento directo entre Romney y Perry fue tan evidente que Jon Huntsman bromeó diciendo que existía peligro real de que se apalearan el uno al otro hasta la muerte. Aunque el Gobernador de Texas también recibió de otros rivales, no sólo de Romney, especialmente en inmigración. Llegó a decir que sus rivales no tienen corazón por oponerse a las becas escolares para hijos de inmigrantes, pero el aplauso del público fue para Rick Santorum al recordar que en Texas se estaba subvencionando la inmigración ilegal con el dinero de los contribuyentes.

Perry terminó el debate muy agobiado. Una vez más le faltó fluidez. Estamos asistiendo a la consecuencia lógica de una entrada tardía en la campaña. Se trata de un candidato que hasta hace apenas dos meses no se planteaba entrar en esta aventura y no se preparó bien para ello. Frente a él, está un Romney con cuatro años de experiencia en esto de ser candidato presidencial y con decenas de debates nacionales a sus espaldas.

La única duda que tengo con Romney es el cómo puede funcionar en las primarias su resistencia a dejarse llevar hacia posiciones más extremistas. Me explico, el tono general del debate se situó muy a la derecha, Bachmann prometió construir un muro en la frontera y eliminar el Departamento de Educación, Ron Paul prometió eliminar la ciudadanía a los hijos de inmigrantes ilegales nacidos en EEUU, Santorum dijo que proscribirá a los sindicatos de empleados públicos, Herman Cain llamó a eliminar la Agencia de Protección Medioambiental... mientras Romney se resistió a llamar socialista a Obama o habló bien de algunos aspectos de su reforma educativa.

Mientras el resto está más interesado en declarar fidelidad a principios innegables, el interés de Romney está en parecer presidencial. A veces me da la impresión de que Romney es el único que de verdad se presenta a Presidente. Los demás se olvidan de que están compitiendo para ser elegidos líderes de un país de más de 300 millones de habitantes y se comportan como si estuvieran en un concurso.

No sé si lo de Romney se debe a una destacada capacidad de disciplina o a un exceso de confianza que pueda terminar pagando en las primarias. Lo que tengo claro es que el enfrentamiento con Perry le está sirviendo a Romney para transformarse en un candidato mucho más fuerte y competitivo para la elección general, además de en un experto en debates, y eso debería preocupar en la Casa Blanca con un Obama que no tendrá debates hasta que lleguen los gordos en el último mes de campaña.



Continúa: Parte 2 / Parte 3 / Parte 4 / Parte 5 / Parte 6 / Parte 7 / Parte 8 / Parte 9 / Parte 10

Gary Johnson estará en el debate de mañana

The Daily Beast:

Johnson will be included in Thursday’s Fox News debate in Orlando, the first time he will share a stage with his eight rivals—over the objections of the Florida Republican Party.

The former New Mexico governor won the right to participate, according to Fox sources, by cracking 1 percent in the latest five national polls in which he was included—Fox News, CNN, McClatchy-Marist, ABC, and Quinnipiac—which was the criterion the network had set for inclusion.

Johnson is a quirky character, a libertarian who wants to legalize marijuana and is opposed to a border fence to stop illegal immigration. But he has attracted a passionate if tiny following while mostly flying below the media’s radar.

Gary Johnson recorrerá NH subido a una bicicleta

El Gobernador Gary Johnson se propone hacer en bicicleta una gira de 6 días por más de 20 ciudades de New Hampshire.

Presidential Candidate Gary Johnson will be making a 6-day, 458 mile bike ride across New Hampshire October 5-11.

The “Ride for Freedom” will begin in Milford and end in Manchester criss-crossing most of the state. He will be making stops to visit with residents along the way as well as planning to hold town hall meetings in evenings.

Stops include Milford, Concord, Gilford, Alton, Wolfeboro, Moultonborough, Meredith, Laconia, Fitzwilliam, Keene, Newport, Loudon, Durham, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Exeter, Manchester, Derry, Salem, Windham and Nashua.

Gary Johnson en America's Nightly Scoreboard (Fox News)

El ex Gobernador de New Mexico reiteró su oposición a la subida del techo de la deuda bajo cualquier circunstancia, y defendió su propuesta estrella de equilibrar el presupuesto federal para 2013 recortando el gasto público en un 43%, reduciendo el tamaño de la mayoría de departamentos del gobierno, incluído el Pentágono, y eliminando completamente otros como el Departamento de Educación.

Gary Johnson: 180,236 dólares en el segundo cuarto

180,236 dólares recaudados, de los cuales ha gastado ya 174,230 dólares. Le quedan 6,006 dólares. Fuente: FEC