Contando sólo a los candidatos ya anunciados, con Perry, Palin y Giuliani fuera, Romney es el favorito en las cuatro regiones de la Unión, incluso en el Sur, aunque su mayor ventaja sigue estando en el Oeste.
Fuente: Gallup
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta encuestas. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta encuestas. Mostrar todas las entradas
jueves, 28 de julio de 2011
Gallup: tirón regional de los candidatos
Perry es el favorito del Sur, mientras que el gran bastión de Romney, en contra de lo que es natural en un ex Gobernador de Massachusetts, no está en el Este sino en el Oeste (en 2008 ya arrasó en Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Idaho y Montana frente a McCain y obtuvo un buen resultado en California). Giuliani le iguala en el Este.
Contando sólo a los candidatos ya anunciados, con Perry, Palin y Giuliani fuera, Romney es el favorito en las cuatro regiones de la Unión, incluso en el Sur, aunque su mayor ventaja sigue estando en el Oeste.
Fuente: Gallup
Contando sólo a los candidatos ya anunciados, con Perry, Palin y Giuliani fuera, Romney es el favorito en las cuatro regiones de la Unión, incluso en el Sur, aunque su mayor ventaja sigue estando en el Oeste.
Fuente: Gallup
jueves, 14 de julio de 2011
Gallup: Obama vs. "Generic Republican"
Obama pierde por 8 puntos frente a un candidato republicano genérico (un candidato sin nombre ni cara, del que sólo sabemos que representa al GOP) en Gallup. Es la mayor desventaja en lo que va de año.
En esta fase temprana de la campaña, con un incumbent bien conocido por todos por un lado, y muchos aspirantes aún por conocer por el otro, este puede ser un indicador más interesante que los horse-race polls (enfrentamientos directos con candidatos no nominados) porque sirve para valorar la vulnerabilidad del incumbent y la disposición del electorado a cambiar de Presidente si se le ofrece un buen candidato al que poder votar.
En esta fase temprana de la campaña, con un incumbent bien conocido por todos por un lado, y muchos aspirantes aún por conocer por el otro, este puede ser un indicador más interesante que los horse-race polls (enfrentamientos directos con candidatos no nominados) porque sirve para valorar la vulnerabilidad del incumbent y la disposición del electorado a cambiar de Presidente si se le ofrece un buen candidato al que poder votar.
lunes, 11 de julio de 2011
Bachmann, favorita en Iowa
El sondeo ha sido realizado por Voter/Consumer Research, firma fundada por Jan van Lohuizen, pollster de Bush durante muchos años. Se ha entrevistado a 500 probables participantes en el caucus republicano de Iowa.
miércoles, 6 de julio de 2011
Universidad de NH: Romney 35%, Bachmann 12%
Romney mantiene una cómoda ventaja en New Hampshire, doblando sin problemas al más inmediato perseguidor, aunque baja 6 puntos respecto al anterior sondeo. Bachmann es la única que sube, triplicando apoyos: pasa del 4% al 12% en esta última actualización. Gingrich cae, pierde dos tercios de su intención de voto. Perry es incluido por primera vez. El resto se mantienen estáticos.
University of New Hampshire Survey Center:
Mitt Romney 35%
Michele Bachmann 12%
Rudy Giuliani 7%
Ron Paul 7%
Rick Perry 4%
Sarah Palin 3%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Herman Cain 2%
Jon Huntsman 2%
Newt Gingrich 1%
Gary Johnson 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Buddy Roemer 0%
Indecisos 21%
La otra buena noticia para Romney es que lleva cinco meses ininterrumpidos derrotando a Obama en New Hampshire. Sólo son 4 votos electorales, pero en una elección igualada pueden ser un tesoro. Que se lo pregunten a Al Gore.
(...) In a hypothetical presidential race between Romney and President Barack Obama, Romney leads with 47 percent of the vote to Obama's 43 percent. Romney has held a lead over Obama since February. (...)
University of New Hampshire Survey Center:
Mitt Romney 35%
Michele Bachmann 12%
Rudy Giuliani 7%
Ron Paul 7%
Rick Perry 4%
Sarah Palin 3%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Herman Cain 2%
Jon Huntsman 2%
Newt Gingrich 1%
Gary Johnson 1%
Rick Santorum 1%
Buddy Roemer 0%
Indecisos 21%
La otra buena noticia para Romney es que lleva cinco meses ininterrumpidos derrotando a Obama en New Hampshire. Sólo son 4 votos electorales, pero en una elección igualada pueden ser un tesoro. Que se lo pregunten a Al Gore.
(...) In a hypothetical presidential race between Romney and President Barack Obama, Romney leads with 47 percent of the vote to Obama's 43 percent. Romney has held a lead over Obama since February. (...)
domingo, 26 de junio de 2011
Encuesta de Des Moines Register para el Caucus de Iowa
Resultados:
Mitt Romney 23%
Michele Bachmann 22%
Herman Cain 10%
Newt Gingrich 7%
Ron Paul 7%
Tim Pawlenty 6%
Rick Santorum 4%
Jon Huntsman 2%
Conclusiones:
Romney puede mantener el tipo en Iowa con una inversión 0 en publicidad y con alguna que otra visita. El 25% que le votó en el caucus de 2008 parece dispuesto a mantener su voto de salida mientras no surja un candidato nuevo.
Bachmann es la principal beneficiada por la ausencia de Huckabee. Mañana anunciará formalmente candidatura con un esperado mitin en su pueblo natal, Waterloo, en Iowa. Su valor va a crecer.
Pawlenty es el gran damnificado. Para un Gobernador no puede haber nada peor que quedar eclipsado por una congresista de tu propio estado que encima es nativa de un estado vital para tu estrategia.
El sondeo se hizo entre el domingo y el miércoles de la pasada semana, antes de que Pawlenty empezase a lanzar publicidad en la tv de Iowa. El próximo sondeo puede ser clave para ver hasta dónde puede llegar Pawlenty. Ser el único candidato en antena (aunque su inversión sigue siendo sorprendentemente limitada) debería reflejarse en un significativo aumento de su intención de voto.
Pawlenty ha tenido toda la primera mitad del año para consolidarse en Iowa y afrontar la posible entrada de Perry con una importante base de votantes leales. Pero en lugar de empezar a lanzar publicidad hace dos meses, ha preferido seguir el ritmo y los plazos marcados por un Romney que le saca cuatro años de ventaja. Ahora tiene que apostarlo todo al straw poll de Ames.
Que ninguna de las alternativas a Romney sobresalga por encima de este en un estado que no entra en los planes del front-runner tiene que ser muy estimulante para Rick Perry. Si el Gobernador de Texas entra en campaña, puede asomarse rápidamente a la cabeza del grupo en Iowa quitando parte del voto a Romney y Bachmann, y atrayendo la casi totalidad del voto que ahora está comprometido con candidatos que no van a ningún lugar.
Mitt Romney 23%
Michele Bachmann 22%
Herman Cain 10%
Newt Gingrich 7%
Ron Paul 7%
Tim Pawlenty 6%
Rick Santorum 4%
Jon Huntsman 2%
Conclusiones:
Romney puede mantener el tipo en Iowa con una inversión 0 en publicidad y con alguna que otra visita. El 25% que le votó en el caucus de 2008 parece dispuesto a mantener su voto de salida mientras no surja un candidato nuevo.
Bachmann es la principal beneficiada por la ausencia de Huckabee. Mañana anunciará formalmente candidatura con un esperado mitin en su pueblo natal, Waterloo, en Iowa. Su valor va a crecer.
Pawlenty es el gran damnificado. Para un Gobernador no puede haber nada peor que quedar eclipsado por una congresista de tu propio estado que encima es nativa de un estado vital para tu estrategia.
El sondeo se hizo entre el domingo y el miércoles de la pasada semana, antes de que Pawlenty empezase a lanzar publicidad en la tv de Iowa. El próximo sondeo puede ser clave para ver hasta dónde puede llegar Pawlenty. Ser el único candidato en antena (aunque su inversión sigue siendo sorprendentemente limitada) debería reflejarse en un significativo aumento de su intención de voto.
Pawlenty ha tenido toda la primera mitad del año para consolidarse en Iowa y afrontar la posible entrada de Perry con una importante base de votantes leales. Pero en lugar de empezar a lanzar publicidad hace dos meses, ha preferido seguir el ritmo y los plazos marcados por un Romney que le saca cuatro años de ventaja. Ahora tiene que apostarlo todo al straw poll de Ames.
Que ninguna de las alternativas a Romney sobresalga por encima de este en un estado que no entra en los planes del front-runner tiene que ser muy estimulante para Rick Perry. Si el Gobernador de Texas entra en campaña, puede asomarse rápidamente a la cabeza del grupo en Iowa quitando parte del voto a Romney y Bachmann, y atrayendo la casi totalidad del voto que ahora está comprometido con candidatos que no van a ningún lugar.
martes, 28 de diciembre de 2010
Frágil favoritismo de Romney
No me gusta mirar encuestas todavía, pero me interesa la de Public Policy Polling para Florida porque evidencia la debilidad de Romney como front-runner. Atrae al votante republicano pragmático, al que busca al candidato más serio y de mayor estatura, al que piensa "cualquiera menos Palin". Pero cuando a ese votante se le plantean varias alternativas "serias", los números de Romney caen. Su base de apoyos no es fiel.
(...) When PPP first polled Florida Republicans in March about who they wanted as their 2012 nominee 52% of them picked Mitt Romney when given the choices of him, Mike Huckabee (who got 21%), and Sarah Palin (who received 18%).
When PPP next asked Florida Republicans about 2012 in July Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul's names were added into the mix and although Romney maintained the lead it wasn't nearly as strong. He was at 31%, followed by Palin and Gingrich at 23%, Huckabee at 15%, and Paul at 6%.
When PPP asked about it in late October even more names were in the pool and Romney's support declined even further. He was down to 28% with Palin at 22%, Huckabee and Gingrich at 15%, and a variety of other Republicans combining for 8%.
Now Romney's lead in Florida is completely gone. The poll we did last week found him at only 21%, behind Huckabee's 23%, with Gingrich at 18%, Palin at 13%, and others combining for a total of 15%.
Why has Romney fallen so far? I think part of the reason he polled so well earlier in the year is that he was the anti-Palin. Palin's favorability numbers with GOP voters in Florida are a good deal worse than they are most places and Romney did well in those earlier surveys as one of the few named alternatives to her. As more response options were provided in later polls the anti-Palin sentiment was diffused across several candidates and Romney's mile wide but inch deep support declined further and further and further to where it is now.
Romney's chances at the Republican nomination really might be contingent on a small pool of candidates running- the more 'reasonable' folks there are in the mix the worse Romney does because he doesn't have a real solid base of support. If there are 5 'competent' folks who have been Governors or Senators running it may be hard for any of them to break out as a strong alternative to Palin should she make the race. (...)
(...) When PPP first polled Florida Republicans in March about who they wanted as their 2012 nominee 52% of them picked Mitt Romney when given the choices of him, Mike Huckabee (who got 21%), and Sarah Palin (who received 18%).
When PPP next asked Florida Republicans about 2012 in July Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul's names were added into the mix and although Romney maintained the lead it wasn't nearly as strong. He was at 31%, followed by Palin and Gingrich at 23%, Huckabee at 15%, and Paul at 6%.
When PPP asked about it in late October even more names were in the pool and Romney's support declined even further. He was down to 28% with Palin at 22%, Huckabee and Gingrich at 15%, and a variety of other Republicans combining for 8%.
Now Romney's lead in Florida is completely gone. The poll we did last week found him at only 21%, behind Huckabee's 23%, with Gingrich at 18%, Palin at 13%, and others combining for a total of 15%.
Why has Romney fallen so far? I think part of the reason he polled so well earlier in the year is that he was the anti-Palin. Palin's favorability numbers with GOP voters in Florida are a good deal worse than they are most places and Romney did well in those earlier surveys as one of the few named alternatives to her. As more response options were provided in later polls the anti-Palin sentiment was diffused across several candidates and Romney's mile wide but inch deep support declined further and further and further to where it is now.
Romney's chances at the Republican nomination really might be contingent on a small pool of candidates running- the more 'reasonable' folks there are in the mix the worse Romney does because he doesn't have a real solid base of support. If there are 5 'competent' folks who have been Governors or Senators running it may be hard for any of them to break out as a strong alternative to Palin should she make the race. (...)
viernes, 12 de noviembre de 2010
El ranking de Cillizza (WaPo)
Chris Cillizza (Washington Post) ha hecho su primer ranking para la nominación republicana a partir de conversaciones mantenidas con varios estrategas republicanos:
(...) 1. Mitt Romney: Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, spent the entire 2008 cycle trying to win over skeptics with a be-everywhere-do-everything, Energizer Bunny sort of approach to the presidential race. His style in advance of the 2012 race has been strikingly different; Romney has picked his issues -- economic ones, mostly -- carefully and avoided wading into every fight with President Obama or intraparty squabble. The goal seems clear: to make Romney look like the adult in the room. And, to date, it's worked well -- establishing him as a candidate of serious purposes who won't be distracted by the shiny objects thrown in front of him. Romney also has, by far, the most intricate and able political and financial organization in the race -- a machine that can instantly be turned on whenever he decides to announce for president. Challenges remain, most notably explaining to Republican primary voters why the healthcare bill he passed in Massachusetts is different from what Congress passed earlier this year.
2. Sarah Palin: There is no one more difficult to fit into the Line than the former Alaska governor and 2008 presidential nominee. On the one hand, she is the only real rock-star level candidate on the Republican side -- the sort of politician who could draw huge crowds in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina without much effort. She is also the face of the tea party movement, a movement that demonstrated its ability to upset the establishment apple cart during a series of Senate primaries over the last year. And yet, Palin has a skeleton organization (at best) and seems to operate from personal pique as often as from genuine political calculation. If Palin does decide to run -- and we tend to think, based on her public pronouncements, she is leaning that way -- she would be a (and maybe the) prime mover in the race.
3. Tim Pawlenty: Tpaw had, by any account, a very solid 2010 cycle -- touring the country in support of Republican candidates while putting together the sort of fundraising and staff operations necessary to run for president. Pawlenty was, literally, everywhere over the past year -- making regular stops in Iowa and New Hampshire even as many of his rivals for the nomination shied away from doing so. That sort of head start is exactly what the governor of Minnesota needed as he is, without question, the least well known of the top tier 2012 candidates. It remains to be seen whether Pawlenty can perform when the national spotlight shines on him -- as it will soon enough -- but his spade work over the last two years has put him into place as a serious contender.
4. Haley Barbour: Barbour proved his political skills -- yet again -- as chairman of the Republican Governors Association in the 2010 cycle. The Mississippi governor turned the RGA into the fundraising flagship within the party and helped recapture key swing states likes Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania for the party. Combine that performance with Barbour's affable nature and popularity with Republican activists and he has a shot at the nomination -- although it remains to be seen how large a liability his resume (southern governor, ex-lobbyist) will be.
5. John Thune: The South Dakota Senator is the buzz candidate of the moment among the Washington chattering class. (Make sure to read Steve Hayes' terrific Thune profile in the Weekly Standard.) Thune looks like a president, has surrounded himself with a top-tier consulting team and is sitting on more than $7 million that could be used to jumpstart as presidential race. Questions linger over how badly Thune wants to run (and "want to" makes a big difference in a presidential primary fight) and whether he could overcome his vote for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) back in 2008.
Continúa (...)
(...) 1. Mitt Romney: Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, spent the entire 2008 cycle trying to win over skeptics with a be-everywhere-do-everything, Energizer Bunny sort of approach to the presidential race. His style in advance of the 2012 race has been strikingly different; Romney has picked his issues -- economic ones, mostly -- carefully and avoided wading into every fight with President Obama or intraparty squabble. The goal seems clear: to make Romney look like the adult in the room. And, to date, it's worked well -- establishing him as a candidate of serious purposes who won't be distracted by the shiny objects thrown in front of him. Romney also has, by far, the most intricate and able political and financial organization in the race -- a machine that can instantly be turned on whenever he decides to announce for president. Challenges remain, most notably explaining to Republican primary voters why the healthcare bill he passed in Massachusetts is different from what Congress passed earlier this year.
2. Sarah Palin: There is no one more difficult to fit into the Line than the former Alaska governor and 2008 presidential nominee. On the one hand, she is the only real rock-star level candidate on the Republican side -- the sort of politician who could draw huge crowds in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina without much effort. She is also the face of the tea party movement, a movement that demonstrated its ability to upset the establishment apple cart during a series of Senate primaries over the last year. And yet, Palin has a skeleton organization (at best) and seems to operate from personal pique as often as from genuine political calculation. If Palin does decide to run -- and we tend to think, based on her public pronouncements, she is leaning that way -- she would be a (and maybe the) prime mover in the race.
3. Tim Pawlenty: Tpaw had, by any account, a very solid 2010 cycle -- touring the country in support of Republican candidates while putting together the sort of fundraising and staff operations necessary to run for president. Pawlenty was, literally, everywhere over the past year -- making regular stops in Iowa and New Hampshire even as many of his rivals for the nomination shied away from doing so. That sort of head start is exactly what the governor of Minnesota needed as he is, without question, the least well known of the top tier 2012 candidates. It remains to be seen whether Pawlenty can perform when the national spotlight shines on him -- as it will soon enough -- but his spade work over the last two years has put him into place as a serious contender.
4. Haley Barbour: Barbour proved his political skills -- yet again -- as chairman of the Republican Governors Association in the 2010 cycle. The Mississippi governor turned the RGA into the fundraising flagship within the party and helped recapture key swing states likes Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania for the party. Combine that performance with Barbour's affable nature and popularity with Republican activists and he has a shot at the nomination -- although it remains to be seen how large a liability his resume (southern governor, ex-lobbyist) will be.
5. John Thune: The South Dakota Senator is the buzz candidate of the moment among the Washington chattering class. (Make sure to read Steve Hayes' terrific Thune profile in the Weekly Standard.) Thune looks like a president, has surrounded himself with a top-tier consulting team and is sitting on more than $7 million that could be used to jumpstart as presidential race. Questions linger over how badly Thune wants to run (and "want to" makes a big difference in a presidential primary fight) and whether he could overcome his vote for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) back in 2008.
Continúa (...)
Primarias muy abiertas según PPP
Public Policy Polling completó ayer su serie de encuestas por estados para las primarias republicanas de 2012. No soy muy amigo de estos sondeos tempranos porque no me parecen de ninguna utilidad ya que la historia demuestra que a estas alturas el votante tiende a nombrar al candidato del que más ha oído hablar. Sólo se puede concluir que el voto está muy fracturado entre los candidatos más conocidos, que rozan el 20 o 25% en el mejor de los casos. No hay ninguno entre esos famosos que aglutine un consenso suficiente y eso puede terminar abriendo paso a uno de los menos conocidos.
Mientras el voto esté muy fracturado, la gran beneficiada es Sarah Palin puesto que levanta más excitación. Tiene una base corta pero apasionada. Romney aparece como un front-runner débil aunque su posición en New Hampshire es muy sólida y supone una enorme ventaja estratégica para atar la nominación. Mientras otros candidatos necesitarían ganar o hacerlo mejor de lo esperado en Iowa para después tener opciones en New Hampshire, Romney podría permitirse quedar último en Iowa y seguiría siendo como mínimo competitivo en New Hampshire. Aunque eso puede cambiar.
New Hampshire
Mitt Romney 40%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Sarah Palin 10%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Mike Pence 3%
Mitch Daniels 1%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 19%
Colorado
Mitt Romney 22%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Sarah Palin 17%
Mike Huckabee 14%
Tim Pawlenty 6%
Mike Pence 3%
John Thune 2%
Mitch Daniels 1%
Someone else/Undecided 18%
California
Mitt Romney 25%
Sarah Palin 18%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Mike Huckabee 15%
Mike Pence 3%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
Mitch Daniels 1%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 19%
Pennsylvania
Mike Huckabee 23%
Mitt Romney 16%
Sarah Palin 16%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Mitch Daniels 2%
Mike Pence 2%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 22%
Florida
Mitt Romney 28%
Sarah Palin 22%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Mike Huckabee 15%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Mike Pence 2%
Mitch Daniels 1%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 12%
Wisconsin
Sarah Palin 18%
Mike Huckabee 15%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Mitt Romney 12%
Tim Pawlenty 8%
Mike Pence 2%
Mitch Daniels 2%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 28%
Minnesota
Tim Pawlenty 19%
Sarah Palin 18%
Mike Huckabee 14%
Newt Gingrich 11%
Mitt Romney 11%
Mike Pence 3%
Mitch Daniels 3%
John Thune 2%
Someone else/Undecided 18%
Maine
Sarah Palin 23%
Mitt Romney 18%
Mike Huckabee 16%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Mike Pence 2%
Mitch Daniels 1%
John Thune 0%
Someone else/Undecided 23%
Texas
Sarah Palin 22%
Mike Huckabee 20%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Mitt Romney 15%
Mike Pence 3%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Mitch Daniels 2%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 20%
Virginia Occidental
Sarah Palin 25%
Mike Huckabee 22%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Mitt Romney 15%
Mike Pence 2%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
Mitch Daniels 1%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 17%
Illinois
Mike Huckabee 18%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Sarah Palin 14%
Mitt Romney 12%
Tim Pawlenty 7%
Mitch Daniels 6%
John Thune 2%
Mike Pence 1%
Someone else/Undecided 23%
Connecticut
Mitt Romney 28%
Mike Huckabee 15%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Sarah Palin 11%
Mike Pence 5%
Tim Pawlenty 5%
Mitch Daniels 4%
John Thune 2%
Someone else/Undecided 18%
Mientras el voto esté muy fracturado, la gran beneficiada es Sarah Palin puesto que levanta más excitación. Tiene una base corta pero apasionada. Romney aparece como un front-runner débil aunque su posición en New Hampshire es muy sólida y supone una enorme ventaja estratégica para atar la nominación. Mientras otros candidatos necesitarían ganar o hacerlo mejor de lo esperado en Iowa para después tener opciones en New Hampshire, Romney podría permitirse quedar último en Iowa y seguiría siendo como mínimo competitivo en New Hampshire. Aunque eso puede cambiar.
New Hampshire
Mitt Romney 40%
Mike Huckabee 13%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Sarah Palin 10%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Mike Pence 3%
Mitch Daniels 1%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 19%
Colorado
Mitt Romney 22%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Sarah Palin 17%
Mike Huckabee 14%
Tim Pawlenty 6%
Mike Pence 3%
John Thune 2%
Mitch Daniels 1%
Someone else/Undecided 18%
California
Mitt Romney 25%
Sarah Palin 18%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Mike Huckabee 15%
Mike Pence 3%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
Mitch Daniels 1%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 19%
Pennsylvania
Mike Huckabee 23%
Mitt Romney 16%
Sarah Palin 16%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Mitch Daniels 2%
Mike Pence 2%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 22%
Florida
Mitt Romney 28%
Sarah Palin 22%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Mike Huckabee 15%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Mike Pence 2%
Mitch Daniels 1%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 12%
Wisconsin
Sarah Palin 18%
Mike Huckabee 15%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Mitt Romney 12%
Tim Pawlenty 8%
Mike Pence 2%
Mitch Daniels 2%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 28%
Minnesota
Tim Pawlenty 19%
Sarah Palin 18%
Mike Huckabee 14%
Newt Gingrich 11%
Mitt Romney 11%
Mike Pence 3%
Mitch Daniels 3%
John Thune 2%
Someone else/Undecided 18%
Maine
Sarah Palin 23%
Mitt Romney 18%
Mike Huckabee 16%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Mike Pence 2%
Mitch Daniels 1%
John Thune 0%
Someone else/Undecided 23%
Texas
Sarah Palin 22%
Mike Huckabee 20%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Mitt Romney 15%
Mike Pence 3%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Mitch Daniels 2%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 20%
Virginia Occidental
Sarah Palin 25%
Mike Huckabee 22%
Newt Gingrich 15%
Mitt Romney 15%
Mike Pence 2%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
Mitch Daniels 1%
John Thune 1%
Someone else/Undecided 17%
Illinois
Mike Huckabee 18%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Sarah Palin 14%
Mitt Romney 12%
Tim Pawlenty 7%
Mitch Daniels 6%
John Thune 2%
Mike Pence 1%
Someone else/Undecided 23%
Connecticut
Mitt Romney 28%
Mike Huckabee 15%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Sarah Palin 11%
Mike Pence 5%
Tim Pawlenty 5%
Mitch Daniels 4%
John Thune 2%
Someone else/Undecided 18%
martes, 9 de noviembre de 2010
Ranking del National Journal
Tomando en cuenta puntos fuertes y debilidades, y factores como la financiación o la infraestructura de campaña, el National Journal ha hecho un ranking para la nominación presidencial republicana de 2012.
(...)
1. MITT ROMNEY
The GOP has a history of nominating the person who has stood in line, and after finishing second behind John McCain in 2008, Romney is now that person. He's got the necessary infrastructure, fundraising ability, and intangibles to be the undisputed front-runner, but how convincingly he answers nagging questions about his individual mandate in Commonwealth Care will determine how long he keeps the top spot.
2. TIM PAWLENTY
Like Romney, Pawlenty is acting like a traditional candidate, putting together the staff and resources necessary to jump in with both feet. He’s certainly got the executive experience and conservative credentials, but early reviews of his public appearances make us wonder whether he's exciting enough to inspire a primary audience. Our burning question: Does “Minnesota Nice” play in presidential primary politics?
3. JOHN THUNE
He’s young, presidential-looking, and in tune with the base – all of which endears him to primary crowds. He has the smarts and savvy to go with battle-tested campaign skills (see: Daschle, Tom). Is John Thune in 2010 what Barack Obama was in 2006? Not yet – but if primary voters are looking for a fresh face to lead the GOP into a new, conservative era, Thune could be the guy. His biggest vulnerability is his 2008 vote for TARP, an explanation for which he’s already rehearsing.
4. HALEY BARBOUR
Many believe Barbour is the best tactician, and one of the best politicians, in the Republican Party. His tenure at the Republican Governors Association was a virtually unqualified success, and he can claim credit for down-ballot wins, too. But as the Mississippian himself points out, he's a lawyer, a lobbyist, and a politician – three strikes in an atmosphere that distains the establishment.
5. MIKE HUCKABEE
Whether Huckabee is serious about running or just wants his name out there to make money is an unsolved mystery. But no one should underestimate the most charismatic man in the field. He won Iowa once, he can do it again. Still, fiscal conservatives don’t like Huck, and he’ll have to answer for releasing a criminal who murdered four police officers in Washington state late last year.
6. SARAH PALIN
As with Huckabee, we question Palin's intentions. We’d take her potential candidacy more seriously if she weren’t banking millions from books, speaking engagements, and reality shows. Is she only keeping her name in the 2012 conversation to stay relevant? One thing is for sure: Palin has a stronger connection to an ascendant base than any other candidate. But if she's serious about running, she will need to assemble precisely the sort of traditional campaign she has eschewed in the past.
7. NEWT GINGRICH
Newt is greeted like a rock star at every GOP rally he attends, and the activist class claims he's the party’s sharpest policy mind. But he has flirted with an Oval Office run in the past without making the leap, which makes us wary of taking him too seriously. Making book-tour stops in Iowa only sells more books – it doesn't get him any delegates. If he does run, his banter about anti-colonialism, food stamps, and Hitler will make it hard for him to tack back to the middle if he were to secure the nomination.
8. MIKE PENCE
The surprise winner at the Values Voter Summit straw poll is serious about running, given his decision to withdraw from his House leadership post. But is he running for president or for governor of Indiana? His speech this month at the Detroit Economic Club indicates the former. Pence connects with tea party voters, but any House member faces a tough climb if he wants to run for the White House.
9. MITCH DANIELS
Indiana's successful two-term governor is getting the kind of early buzz any White House contender would kill for. But his decision to call for a “truce” on social issues, which angered social conservatives, put him on the wrong side of a key constituency before his campaign even began. While he’s been meeting with GOP power players to map out a potential run, Daniels has also been unusually honest about the fact that toying with a White House run is a great way to stay relevant.
10. CHRIS CHRISTIE
He’s the Republican flavor of the moment, thanks to high-profile battles with New Jersey teachers unions and Trenton Democrats. But the charismatic former prosecutor has spent the last two months finding a thousand different ways to promise that he’s not running. A draft movement will have to be very persuasive – and incredibly well-funded – to have a shot.
11. RICK PERRY
The thrice-elected Texas governor maintains he is uninterested in living in Washington, but a national book tour and his unabashed courtship of tea party conservatives hints otherwise. Bringing up the 10th Amendment during his tough primary bid was a smart move, and it solidified his place among a segment of GOP-primary voters who may prove essential to deciding the 2012 nominee.
12. BOBBY JINDAL
We believe the Louisiana governor is a more likely candidate in 2016 than he is in 2012, but he remains a man to watch in the upcoming cycle. Jindal has to run for reelection in 2011, giving him at most a three-month turnaround before Iowa voters caucus. Still, Jindal has a noted policy mind and an impeccable record of fiscal conservatism. He's a player, even if only for vice president.
13. RICK SANTORUM
Santorum has been quietly interviewing potential staffers and is beginning to pile the few eggs he has into the Iowa basket, hoping the stars align and voters are so divided between top-tier candidates that he can pull a Huckabee and carry the conservative vote. Sure, he's a long shot, but the only candidate who unabashedly entered the 2004 contest so early was Howard Dean, who went from obscurity to front-runner before falling flat.
14. JIM DEMINT
DeMint has been forward in claiming credit for conservative primary victories over establishment favorites, and he's no stranger to bashing his own party when it's not conservative enough for his taste, something that's popular with the base. But he's equally insistent that he won't be running in 2012, and he's made no moves that suggest he isn't being honest. If he runs, DeMint would be a force to be reckoned with – but he's ranked here for now because of the magnitude of that "if."
15. R. PAUL
In 2008, Ron Paul was little more than a sideshow. He generated big crowds and unparalleled excitement, but was unable to convert that grassroots energy into the votes needed to compete in key early states. Suddenly, Paul's message is a lot more popular – so much so that his son is an incoming senator from Kentucky. Who's the messenger for that message in 2012? Ron? Rand?
On the bubble: John Cornyn, Gary Johnson, Bob McDonnell, George Pataki, Marco Rubio
(...)
(...)
1. MITT ROMNEY
The GOP has a history of nominating the person who has stood in line, and after finishing second behind John McCain in 2008, Romney is now that person. He's got the necessary infrastructure, fundraising ability, and intangibles to be the undisputed front-runner, but how convincingly he answers nagging questions about his individual mandate in Commonwealth Care will determine how long he keeps the top spot.
2. TIM PAWLENTY
Like Romney, Pawlenty is acting like a traditional candidate, putting together the staff and resources necessary to jump in with both feet. He’s certainly got the executive experience and conservative credentials, but early reviews of his public appearances make us wonder whether he's exciting enough to inspire a primary audience. Our burning question: Does “Minnesota Nice” play in presidential primary politics?
3. JOHN THUNE
He’s young, presidential-looking, and in tune with the base – all of which endears him to primary crowds. He has the smarts and savvy to go with battle-tested campaign skills (see: Daschle, Tom). Is John Thune in 2010 what Barack Obama was in 2006? Not yet – but if primary voters are looking for a fresh face to lead the GOP into a new, conservative era, Thune could be the guy. His biggest vulnerability is his 2008 vote for TARP, an explanation for which he’s already rehearsing.
4. HALEY BARBOUR
Many believe Barbour is the best tactician, and one of the best politicians, in the Republican Party. His tenure at the Republican Governors Association was a virtually unqualified success, and he can claim credit for down-ballot wins, too. But as the Mississippian himself points out, he's a lawyer, a lobbyist, and a politician – three strikes in an atmosphere that distains the establishment.
5. MIKE HUCKABEE
Whether Huckabee is serious about running or just wants his name out there to make money is an unsolved mystery. But no one should underestimate the most charismatic man in the field. He won Iowa once, he can do it again. Still, fiscal conservatives don’t like Huck, and he’ll have to answer for releasing a criminal who murdered four police officers in Washington state late last year.
6. SARAH PALIN
As with Huckabee, we question Palin's intentions. We’d take her potential candidacy more seriously if she weren’t banking millions from books, speaking engagements, and reality shows. Is she only keeping her name in the 2012 conversation to stay relevant? One thing is for sure: Palin has a stronger connection to an ascendant base than any other candidate. But if she's serious about running, she will need to assemble precisely the sort of traditional campaign she has eschewed in the past.
7. NEWT GINGRICH
Newt is greeted like a rock star at every GOP rally he attends, and the activist class claims he's the party’s sharpest policy mind. But he has flirted with an Oval Office run in the past without making the leap, which makes us wary of taking him too seriously. Making book-tour stops in Iowa only sells more books – it doesn't get him any delegates. If he does run, his banter about anti-colonialism, food stamps, and Hitler will make it hard for him to tack back to the middle if he were to secure the nomination.
8. MIKE PENCE
The surprise winner at the Values Voter Summit straw poll is serious about running, given his decision to withdraw from his House leadership post. But is he running for president or for governor of Indiana? His speech this month at the Detroit Economic Club indicates the former. Pence connects with tea party voters, but any House member faces a tough climb if he wants to run for the White House.
9. MITCH DANIELS
Indiana's successful two-term governor is getting the kind of early buzz any White House contender would kill for. But his decision to call for a “truce” on social issues, which angered social conservatives, put him on the wrong side of a key constituency before his campaign even began. While he’s been meeting with GOP power players to map out a potential run, Daniels has also been unusually honest about the fact that toying with a White House run is a great way to stay relevant.
10. CHRIS CHRISTIE
He’s the Republican flavor of the moment, thanks to high-profile battles with New Jersey teachers unions and Trenton Democrats. But the charismatic former prosecutor has spent the last two months finding a thousand different ways to promise that he’s not running. A draft movement will have to be very persuasive – and incredibly well-funded – to have a shot.
11. RICK PERRY
The thrice-elected Texas governor maintains he is uninterested in living in Washington, but a national book tour and his unabashed courtship of tea party conservatives hints otherwise. Bringing up the 10th Amendment during his tough primary bid was a smart move, and it solidified his place among a segment of GOP-primary voters who may prove essential to deciding the 2012 nominee.
12. BOBBY JINDAL
We believe the Louisiana governor is a more likely candidate in 2016 than he is in 2012, but he remains a man to watch in the upcoming cycle. Jindal has to run for reelection in 2011, giving him at most a three-month turnaround before Iowa voters caucus. Still, Jindal has a noted policy mind and an impeccable record of fiscal conservatism. He's a player, even if only for vice president.
13. RICK SANTORUM
Santorum has been quietly interviewing potential staffers and is beginning to pile the few eggs he has into the Iowa basket, hoping the stars align and voters are so divided between top-tier candidates that he can pull a Huckabee and carry the conservative vote. Sure, he's a long shot, but the only candidate who unabashedly entered the 2004 contest so early was Howard Dean, who went from obscurity to front-runner before falling flat.
14. JIM DEMINT
DeMint has been forward in claiming credit for conservative primary victories over establishment favorites, and he's no stranger to bashing his own party when it's not conservative enough for his taste, something that's popular with the base. But he's equally insistent that he won't be running in 2012, and he's made no moves that suggest he isn't being honest. If he runs, DeMint would be a force to be reckoned with – but he's ranked here for now because of the magnitude of that "if."
15. R. PAUL
In 2008, Ron Paul was little more than a sideshow. He generated big crowds and unparalleled excitement, but was unable to convert that grassroots energy into the votes needed to compete in key early states. Suddenly, Paul's message is a lot more popular – so much so that his son is an incoming senator from Kentucky. Who's the messenger for that message in 2012? Ron? Rand?
On the bubble: John Cornyn, Gary Johnson, Bob McDonnell, George Pataki, Marco Rubio
(...)
domingo, 7 de noviembre de 2010
Huckabee, Romney y Palin los front-runners
Los nombres más conocidos (Huckabee, Romney, Palin) acaparan de momento todas las encuestas sobre intención de voto para la nominación republicana sin un favorito claro.
CNN/Opinion Research Corp.:
A nivel nacional
Mike Huckabee 21%
Mitt Romney 20%
Sarah Palin 14%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Otros 33%
Iowa
Mike Huckabee 21%
Mitt Romney 21%
Sarah Palin 18%
Newt Gingrich 7%
Otros 20%
New Hampshire
Mitt Romney 39%
Sarah Palin 18%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Otros 19%
Carolina del Sur
Sarah Palin 25%
Mike Huckabee 24%
Mitt Romney 21%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Elección General
Barack Obama (D) 52% - Sarah Palin (R) 44%
Mike Huckabee (R) 52% - Barack Obama (D) 44%
Mitt Romney (R) 50% - Barack Obama (D) 45%
Barack Obama (D) 49% - Newt Gingrich (R) 47%
AOL News:
Rasmussen:
(...) Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin attracts an enviable 82 percent approval rating among Republicans who are likely to vote in primary elections, according to a new survey from Rasmussen Reports. In a week in which Palin and fellow former Govs. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee traded places near the top in surveys crystal-balling the 2012 election, Rasmussen now finds that the three also are the best-liked of the 14 top party players among GOP primary voters.
Palin’s popularity quotient includes 50 percent who have a very favorable opinion of her, while just 17 percent view her unfavorably, including 8 percent very unfavorably, according to the survey findings.
Tied at 79 per cent favorability are former Massachusetts Gov. Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee. And 17 percent hold unfavorable opinions of the two men, both of whom ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.
For Huckabee, that includes very favorables of 43 percent, while 37 percent have a very favorable impression of Romney. Their very unfavorables are in low single-digits.
It’s a dead heat between Romney, Huckabee and Palin when likely primary voters are asked whom they would vote for if the primary took place today. (...)
CNN/Opinion Research Corp.:
A nivel nacional
Mike Huckabee 21%
Mitt Romney 20%
Sarah Palin 14%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Otros 33%
Iowa
Mike Huckabee 21%
Mitt Romney 21%
Sarah Palin 18%
Newt Gingrich 7%
Otros 20%
New Hampshire
Mitt Romney 39%
Sarah Palin 18%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Otros 19%
Carolina del Sur
Sarah Palin 25%
Mike Huckabee 24%
Mitt Romney 21%
Newt Gingrich 10%
Elección General
Barack Obama (D) 52% - Sarah Palin (R) 44%
Mike Huckabee (R) 52% - Barack Obama (D) 44%
Mitt Romney (R) 50% - Barack Obama (D) 45%
Barack Obama (D) 49% - Newt Gingrich (R) 47%
AOL News:
Rasmussen:
(...) Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin attracts an enviable 82 percent approval rating among Republicans who are likely to vote in primary elections, according to a new survey from Rasmussen Reports. In a week in which Palin and fellow former Govs. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee traded places near the top in surveys crystal-balling the 2012 election, Rasmussen now finds that the three also are the best-liked of the 14 top party players among GOP primary voters.
Palin’s popularity quotient includes 50 percent who have a very favorable opinion of her, while just 17 percent view her unfavorably, including 8 percent very unfavorably, according to the survey findings.
Tied at 79 per cent favorability are former Massachusetts Gov. Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee. And 17 percent hold unfavorable opinions of the two men, both of whom ran unsuccessfully for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.
For Huckabee, that includes very favorables of 43 percent, while 37 percent have a very favorable impression of Romney. Their very unfavorables are in low single-digits.
It’s a dead heat between Romney, Huckabee and Palin when likely primary voters are asked whom they would vote for if the primary took place today. (...)
Suscribirse a:
Entradas (Atom)