Herman Cain en John King USA (CNN)

"Better Deal"

Nuevo video del Gobernador Tim Pawlenty que recoge lo mejor de su charla económica en la Universidad de Chicago. El título, "The Better Deal For Economy", un eco retórico del "New Deal".

(Dicen que) Perry se presenta "en un 90%"

Según las fuentes de Matt Lewis, de The Daily Caller:

Two separate and reliable sources in Texas tell me serious preparations are being made for Governor Rick Perry, 61, to seek the Republican nomination for president.

Dave Carney and Rob Johnson — the former top Perry aides who on Thursday left Newt Gingrich’s floundering campaign — are said to be heading to Texas soon to join in on preparations for the run. I am told this is now “ninety percent likely to occur.” Additionally, Perry allies have begun holding meetings in the state and have been instructed to quietly reach out to contacts in early primary states. (...)

Romney no participará en el Straw Poll de Ames

Según el Wall Street Journal:

Mitt Romney will skip a key early test for Republican presidential candidates by forgoing the Iowa straw poll in mid-August, a decision that could recast the contest in the nation's first presidential nominating state.

The Iowa straw poll, held in Ames, is one of the landmark events of the nominating contest. Mr. Romney's decision sends the clearest signal yet that he doesn't want to wade deeply into the social issues that carry particular weight with Iowa Republicans and instead intends to present himself to voters nationally as a successful businessman who can improve the economy. (...)

El straw poll de Ames tendrá lugar el 13 de agosto. La decisión de Romney mete presión a Pawlenty. Si Pawlenty no queda entre los dos primeros, si es adelantado por Bachmann, Cain, o incluso por un ausente Romney, los medios pondrán en cuestión la viabilidad de su candidatura. Recordad que hasta el straw poll de 2007, el Senador Sam Brownback parecía la principal amenaza para Romney en Iowa. Tras ser derrotado para el segundo puesto por Huckabee, la campaña de Brownback murió.

Tradicionalmente, el ganador del Caucus de Iowa ha quedado primero o segundo en el straw poll del verano anterior.

Straw poll 1979

George Bush 36%
John Connally 15%
Bob Dole 15%
Ronald Reagan 11%
Howard Baker 8%

Caucus 1980

George Bush 32%
Ronald Reagan 30%
Howard Baker 15%
John Connally 9%
Phil Crane 7%

Straw Poll 1987

Pat Robertson 34%
Bob Dole 25%
George Bush 23%
Jack Kemp 14%
Pete du Pont 4%

Caucus 1988

Bob Dole 37%
Pat Robertson 25%
George Bush 19%
Jack Kemp 11%
Pete du Pont 7%

Straw Poll 1995

Bob Dole 24%
Phil Gramm 24%
Pat Buchanan 18%
Lamar Alexander 11%
Alan Keyes 7%

Caucus 1996

Bob Dole 26%
Pat Buchanan 23%
Lamar Alexander 18%
Steve Forbes 10%
Phil Gramm 9%
Alan keyes 7%

Straw Poll 1999

George W. Bush 31%
Steve Forbes 21%
Elizabeth Dole 14%
Gary Bauer 9%
Pat Buchanan 7%

Caucus 2000

George W. Bush 41%
Steve Forbes 30%
Alan Keyes 14%
Gary Bauer 9%
John McCain 5%

Straw Poll 2007

Mitt Romney 31%
Mike Huckabee 18%
Sam Brownback 15%
Tom Tancredo 14%
Ron Paul 9%
Tommy Thompson 7%

Caucus 2008

Mike Huckabee 34%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 13%
Ron Paul 10%
Rudy Giuliani 4%

Dimisiones en masa en Team Gingrich

Associated Press:

The entire top echelon of Newt Gingrich's presidential campaign resigned on Thursday, a stunning mass exodus that left his bid for the Republican nomination in tatters. But the former House speaker vowed defiantly to remain a candidate.

(...) Rick Tyler, Gingrich's spokesman, said that he, campaign manager Rob Johnson and senior strategists had all quit, along with aides in the early primary and caucus states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Other officials said Gingrich was informed that his entire high command was quitting in a meeting at his headquarters in Washington. They cited differences over the direction of the campaign.

"We had a different vision for victory," Tyler told The Associated Press. "And since we couldn't resolve that difference, I didn't feel I could be useful in serving him."

(...) In addition to Tyler, Johnson and Rials, aides who quit include senior adviser Sam Dawson, South Carolina director Katon Dawson, and New Hampshire director Dave Carney. The entire full-time staff in Iowa, six aides, also quit.

One of them, political director Will Rogers, left last week out of dissatisfaction with the direction of the campaign. (...)

Más rumores sobre Perry

Wall Street Journal:

(...) But over the past two weeks, political advisers and friends say, Mr. Perry has changed his tune on a possible presidential campaign. In private conversations, they say, the three-term governor said he worries that the current GOP contenders have yet to stir real excitement within the party and may struggle when facing President Barack Obama.

(...) Republican operatives in Washington and elsewhere say they have received calls recently from prominent Texas GOP donors seeking advice on how Mr. Perry might navigate a late entry into the field. It was unclear whether Mr. Perry or anyone on his team had instigated the calls.

Some of Mr. Perry's own top aides have had tentative discussions with unaffiliated campaign operatives who worked for previous Republican presidential candidates, according to people familiar with the exchanges.

At the same time, Mr. Perry, 61 years old, is making a number of national appearances this month, including an address next week to an annual dinner of the New York Republican Party. Last week he announced an August summit in Houston and invited all the nation's governors to attend. He described the event as a "day of prayer and fasting" focused on "the healing of our country." (...)

Giuliani se presenta, según el Weekly Standard

Lo afirma Bill Kristol, editor de la revista:

I'm told by two reliable sources that Rudy Giuliani intends to run for the GOP nomination for president in 2012. He may throw his hat in the ring soon.

Rudy's theory of the race: In the fall of 2007, he decided he couldn't compete with both Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire, and disastrously decided to try to pull back there and pitch his tent in Florida. This year, he'll commit everything to New Hampshire, where he thinks he has a good shot at beating Romney—whom he criticized there earlier this week. He then thinks he can beat whichever more socially conservative candidate(s) is left by winning what are still likely to be winner-take-all primaries in big states like California, New York, and New Jersey.

Rudy's message: I'm tough enough to put our fiscal house in order and to protect us from enemies abroad. The U.S. in 2012 is in bad shape—like New York in 1993. The budget crisis is as severe—and seemingly intractable—as the crime/welfare crisis was in New York then. Rudy dealt with that when people said it couldn't be done. He'll deal with this.

Isn't his abysmal 2008 campaign a disqualifier? Rudy's answer: Consider the New York parallel. Rudy lost to David Dinkins in 1989, making several unforced errors and running without a focused message. In 1993, as the streets of New York plunged into crisis, Rudy ran a disciplined campaign pledging to turn the city around. He won, and in a disciplined first term, he governed successfully.

It seems implausible that Rudy Giuliani could win the nomination. But it's an implausible year.

Joe Wilson apoya a Pawlenty en SC

El Gobernador Pawlenty se ha hecho con el apoyo del Congresista Joe Wilson en Carolina del Sur. Wilson representa al 2º Distrito de Carolina del Sur, que incluye parte de la capital, Columbia, y condados del límite con Georgia.

Republican presidential hopeful Tim Pawlenty secured a major endorsement in the early primary state of South Carolina on Wednesday, picking up the support of U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson.

Wilson will serve as co-chairman of the former Minnesota governor's campaign in South Carolina, traditionally a must-win primary state for any Republican candidate.

"Governor Pawlenty is the best man to get our nation back on the right track," Wilson said in a statement provided to CNN. "As South Carolinians get to know Governor Pawlenty, as I have, they will see someone with a remarkable record of conservative accomplishments in a politically tough state for Republicans, and someone who has the kind of bold vision for America's future that we need to defeat Barack Obama."

Pawlenty called Wilson "a strong conservative voice for the people of South Carolina" and said he is "honored" to receive the endorsement. (...)

Dick Morris pronostica un Romney vs. Bachmann

Sin descartar a Herman Cain. Al que sí descarta es a Pawlenty. Pero lo más llamativo es que describe al nuevo Romney, un candidato para el que rara vez ha tenido buenas palabras, como "reaganesco."

Huntsman: "Anuncio formal a finales de mes"

Entrevistado en National Review:

(...) I started our conversation by asking how close he was to making a decision. “We have basically decided as a family that we are very comfortable moving forward,” he replied, adding that there will be “a formal announcement, which we expect to take place at the end of the month.” I said that sounded like a “when,” not an “if”; he responded, “when.” A spokesman called a few minutes after the interview to clarify that while all signs point to a run, no final decision has been made. (...)

Santorum en On The Record (Fox News)

Herman Cain en The Situation Room (CNN)

Pawlenty en The Kudlow Report (CNBC)

T-Paw presenta su plan económico en la Universidad de Chicago

Ha propuesto eliminar impuestos sobre inversiones, sucesiones, intereses bancarios, y dividendos, y recortar en más de la mitad los impuestos a las empresas. También quiere simplificar el sistema del impuesto sobre la renta, fijándolo en un 10% para individuos que ganan hasta 50,000 dólares y parejas que ganan hasta 100,000 dólares, y en un 25% para salarios más altos.

Ha sugerido la privatización de Amtrak (la red interurbana de trenes), el servicio de correos, y las agencias hipotecarias Fannie Mae y Freddie Mac. Si es elegido Presidente, pedirá que se requiera el voto del Congreso para extender cualquier regulación, y de no ser así cancelará las regulaciones. Para reducir el gasto público, cree que el Congreso debería otorgar al Presidente una autorización de emergencia para congelar gastos.

Ha acusado a Obama de fomentar la guerra de clases: "Lamentablemente, el Presidente Obama es un campeón en la práctica de la guerra de clases. Elegido con un llamado de unidad y esperanza, se ha pasado tres años dividiendo a nuestra nación, atizando las llamas de la envidia de clase y el resentimiento para desviar la atención de sus propios fracasos y las dificultades económicas que han causado a Estados Unidos."

"In America: Anything Is Possible"

La campaña del Gobernador Romney ha lanzado un video con lo más destacado de las palabras pronunciadas por el candidato cuando anunció candidatura, realzando el significado del lema de indudable inspiración reaganiana escogido para su campaña de este año: "I believe in America".

El video, de buena factura, empieza con un amanecer en la Estatua de la Libertad y continúa con escenas de inmigrantes, granjeros, estudiantes, calles de grandes ciudades, e ingenios tecnológicos.

Romney pesca nuevos donantes

Washington Post:

As he ramps up his 2012 presidential bid, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (R) has been actively recruiting major donors who did not support him four years ago — with impressive results.

Romney, who collected more than $100 million in 2008, has recruited at least 18 heavy-hitters (or “whales” in the political fundraising parlance) to help him secure the nomination this time around.

“There have been a great number of new individuals that have agreed to be a member of Gov. Romney’s finance leadership team,” said national finance chairman Spencer Zwick. Zwick added that in nearly every case, the new members of the Romney fundraising inner circle have already hosted (or will soon host) an event for the former governor.

The list of new names is loaded with major contributors who backed Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in 2008 including: lobbyist Wayne Berman, who served as McCain’s national finance co-chair, New York Jets owner Woody Johnson, New York Yankees president Randy Levine, oil magnate Kit Moncrief, philanthropist Mica Mosbacher, former Ambassador to Spain George Argyros and former Ambassador to Belgium Sam Fox.

Romney also has two major donors previously committed to Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and his un-pursued campaign — attorneys Dan Dumezich and Bob Grand — as well as two people who had planned to back Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour’s presidential campaign: Austin Barbour, the nephew of the governor, and Bobbie Kilberg, the president of the Northern Virginia Technology Council and the 1993 lieutenant governor nominee in Virginia.

Lew Eisenberg, a major GOP money man who served as the co-chairman of the 2008 Republican National Convention, is also on board with Romney, as is Texas homebuilder Bob Perry, who has used his wealth to fund a number of conservative-aligned groups including Swift Boat Veterans for Truth in the 2004 election.

Perhaps most interestingly, Skybridge Capital managing partner Anthony Scarramucci, a former Obama donor, has signed on with Romney. (Scarramucci was a law school classmate of Obama but engaged in a high profile back-and-forth with the president in a town hall meeting last fall.)

(...) But what Romney is clearly hoping for when the 2012 presidential hopefuls report their fundraising totals on July 15 is a total staggering enough to not only cow his rivals, but make clear to fundraising fence-sitters that the time is now to get behind him.

Fundraising, especially in these (still) early days of a national race, is a sign of organization and support — two critical pieces to any winning puzzle. Money tends to beget money, as donors want to be with the person who looks like a winner. (...)

Romney en Piers Morgan Tonight (CNN)

Bachmann ficha a Ed Rollins

ABC News:

Experienced Republican operative Ed Rollins will play a key role, likely that of campaign manager, when Rep. Michele Bachmann announces her bid for the White House later this month, he told ABC News…

Rollins said he just returned from a two-week vacation and he was “trying to get his hands around” what it will take to put together a campaign organization for the Minnesota congresswoman and Tea Party favorite.

He also said he wanted to avoid some of the “stumbles” of other candidates in their initial campaign launches. Bachmann, he said, would be a “first-rate candidate, she deserves a great launch.”

Rollins, an experienced campaign manager, ran Mike Huckabee’s national bid in 2008 and helped Ronald Reagan win in the White House in 1984.

Rollins helped former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee win the 2008 Iowa caucus, the state where pundits think the socially-conservative Bachmann has the best chance of victory. Bachmann is expected to make her candidacy official later this month in Waterloo, Iowa the town where she was born. (...)

Mormons Rock!

Newsweek lleva a Mitt Romney en portada. La revista dedica un reportaje a los mormones, una minoría religiosa que está ganando visibilidad en diferentes ámbitos.

Huntsman en Littleton, NH

Última parada de su segunda visita a New Hampshire.

Santorum anuncia candidatura

El anuncio ha tenido lugar frente al palacio de justicia de su pueblo, Somerset, al suroeste de Pennsylvania. Ha dicho que está preparado para liderar el país y ha animado a las más de 500 personas presentes a "unirse a la lucha".

Ha acusado al Presidente Obama de estar quebrando la economía y la moral de América. Le ha culpado por el déficit y ha criticado su política energética. En el plano moral, le ha señalado por no reforzar el Acta de Defensa del Matrimonio y por permitir la financiación pública del aborto.

Una mujer del público ha caído desmayada mientras escuchaba sus palabras. El candidato y su señora han salido a socorrerla y después han pedido un minuto de silencio para rezar por su recuperación.