Iowa y NH a un mes de las elecciones

Nate Silver:

Of the 11 competitive caucuses since 1980, the candidate leading in the polls a month in advance won them 8 times. That’s a pretty good batting average for Mr. Gingrich. As difficult as it is to poll the caucuses, surveys of Iowa have tended to be pretty reliable in the past.

It is important to note, however, that Mr. Gingrich’s lead is smaller than that of most candidates from past years. In the five prior cases where a candidate had a single-digit lead, he won twice but lost three times. The losses came in 1980, when Ronald Reagan lost to a better-organized candidate in George H.W. Bush, in 1988, when there was an essential four-way tie in the Democratic caucuses and the nominal leader, Gary Hart, lost to Richard Gephardt, and in 2004, when Howard Dean’s support collapsed and he lost to John Kerry.

Perhaps Mr. Romney can take solace from the comeback of Mr. Kerry, a candidate to whom he is sometimes compared. One might also be able to make a superficial comparison between Mr. Gingrich and Howard Dean, as both candidates are relatively brash and bombastic.

Then again, one thing that helped Mr. Kerry in 2004 was the collapse of Mr. Gephardt’s numbers in addition to Mr. Dean. Mr. Gephardt and Mr. Kerry were both fairly traditional candidates with their share of endorsements from unions and other Democratic groups, so Mr. Kerry was a logical candidate for Mr. Gephart’s supporters to turn to once he embarked upon an unappealing feud with another candidate, Joseph I. Lieberman.

By contrast, the other candidate to poll in the double-digits this time around is Ron Paul, who tends to attract his own breed of supporters and not the kind who would be inclined to vote for Mr. Romney. Nor is there any reason to think that Mr. Paul’s numbers will collapse. Instead, he has been gaining ground in Iowa and has a very strong organization there, which often allows a candidate to over-perform his polls on election day.

If I were setting odds as of this morning, I might assign Mr. Gingrich about a 45 or 50 percent chance of winning Iowa, followed by Mr. Paul at 25 percent and Mr. Romney at 15 percent, reserving a small possibility of a comeback by Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann or Rick Perry. Of course, much of this has to do with what you think about the robustness of Mr. Gingrich’s campaign overall and not just his Iowa polls. There are three debates in Iowa between now and the caucuses, which will undoubtedly go a long way toward determining the winner.



The New Hampshire polls have historically been a pretty rough guide this far out from the primary. Of the past 11 candidates to hold a lead in New Hampshire at a comparable point in the cycle, only 5 won. In some cases, like that of Walter Mondale in 1984 or Howard Dean in 2004, the candidate lost despite having a lead in excess of 20 or 30 points. Meanwhile, candidates have come back to win New Hampshire despite being as low as 5 percent (Gary Hart in 1984) or 10 percent (Pat Buchanan in 1996) in the polls. Thus, New Hampshire would still appear to be fairly wide open. Mr. Romney is the favorite in the state, but Mr. Paul, Mr. Gingrich and Jon M. Huntsman Jr., who has been gaining ground in recent surveys, also have plausible chances there.

Romney en Your World (Fox News)

Gingrich en On The Record (Fox News)

Continúa: Parte 2

Gingrich en The Kudlow Report (CNBC)

Huntsman en Hannity (Fox News)

Obama en Osawatomie, Kansas

Un siglo después de que Teddy Roosevelt propusiera en Osawatomie al gobierno como promotor de la justicia social, el Presidente Obama visitó ayer este pequeño pueblo de Kansas, estado natal de su madre blanca, por cierto, para proclamar que este es un momento decisivo para la clase media y para todos los que están luchando para entrar en ella, porque lo que está en juego en EEUU es si la gente trabajadora puede ganar lo suficiente para mantener a su familia, ahorrar algo de dinero, mantener la propeidad de una casa, o asegurarse su retiro.

Abogó por subir los impuestos a los más ricos y prorrogar los recortes fiscales para la clase media. También defendió las regulaciones financieras y pidió más inversión en educación.

Dan Quayle apoya a Romney

Gallup Daily: Gingrich 37%, Romney 22%

A partir de hoy, Gallup publicará cada día a la 1 pm (hora de la Costa Este) los resultados de un tracking poll nacional (encuesta repetida a intervalos regulares, en este caso a diario) para hacer un seguimiento constante de la nominación republicana.

Será interesante para ir viendo tendencias.

Gingrich arranca con una amplia ventaja.

Fotos de campaña: últimas llamadas

Jeb y Neil Bush haciendo llamadas de última hora a los votantas pidiendo el voto para su padre el día del Caucus de Iowa de 1980.

"Serial Hypocrisy" (para tv)

Ron Paul es el primer candidato de este ciclo electoral en lanzar publicidad negativa en tv. El objetivo: Newt Gingrich.

Ha convertido su web ad "Serial Hypocrisy", que en dos minutos exponía las contradicciones de Gingrich en temas variados como el cambio climático, el Medicare, o Freddie Mac, en un anuncio de tv de 60 segundos que se emitirá en Iowa.

Buddy Roemer, muy activo en New Hampshire

Aunque los medios no le prestan atención y las encuestas no registran su candidatura, el Gobernador Buddy Roemer continúa con su voluntariosa campaña contra los intereses especiales.

En la última semana ha hecho una media de dos eventos electorales por día en NH, generalmente en viviendas particulares con votantes que se pueden contar con los dedos de las manos.

Acepta todas las invitaciones. En lugar de ver una película después de una cena en casa con amigos, se puede invitar a Buddy Roemer a dar una charla.

Como ejemplo este house party en Deerfield, al sur de New Hampshire.

Los donantes le piden más agresividad a Romney

POLITICO.com:

Newt Gingrich’s surge is prompting the first signs of nervousness among top Mitt Romney supporters, some of whom are urging their candidate to take a more aggressive approach to arrest the former House speaker’s sudden rise.

Romney’s backers aren’t panicking — yet. But to many, especially among the GOP donor elite, Gingrich looks like Romney’s most formidable opponent to date, and a rival who requires a much more serious response than the previous conservative alternative, Herman Cain.

(...) “I have disagreed with his strategy,” said former Senate GOP Leader Trent Lott, an early Romney backer who has helped him raise money. “I think he could’ve closed the deal out before now. He’s run a little too much of a risk-averse campaign. I would have liked for him to have had a higher profile, been more aggressive — so it didn’t wind up as Romney and one other.”

Now that such a binary choice appears increasingly likely, some high-profile Romney contributors think it’s time to get tough with the former House speaker.

“I think he ought to be a little bit more aggressive now and much more aggressive shortly after the first of the year,” said Ted Welch, one of the country’s top Republican donors and Romney’s Tennessee co-chair.

Asked what other Romney contributors were saying, Welch, a former Republican National Committee finance chair, responded: “Most feel good about him — and say it’s time to be a little bit more aggressive and then accelerate as needed.”

Even as Romney donors remain confident of their candidate’s chances, they say the former Massachusetts governor will have to deliver a more explicit contrast message against Gingrich, whose long but familiar experience in national politics may make him more difficult to define in negative terms.

“Over the coming weeks, [Romney will] probably have to do that, draw a bit of a brighter line between their experiences and their lifetimes and how that has informed them as candidates,” said Peter Cianchette, a Maine-based Romney donor who was ambassador to Costa Rica under George W. Bush. “I believe he’ll do that in a way that is respectful, but yet really says that our job as candidates is to provide that bright line.”

As the race focuses on which candidate has “integrity, stature, selflessness and general leadership abilities,” Cianchette predicted, Romney will be the obvious choice.

(...) “If Newt is the nominee, he’ll hurt our chances everywhere — House, Senate, etc.,” said a Republican lobbyist who is backing Romney. “Everyone thinks Romney hangs on [and still wins the nomination]. I’m not so sure.”

This Romney supporter’s idea for pushback? “Marianne Gingrich needs to cut an ad in Iowa and South Carolina.”

That would be the candidate’s second wife, whom he divorced after carrying on an affair with his current wife, Callista.

Not every Romney supporter wants to go to that political equivalent of nuclear war right now, but conversations with high-profile backers of Romney reveal an unmistakable sense that Gingrich is for real and not a so-called “flavor of the month.”

(...) One former RNC chair said there’s “no question” that the Romney camp’s pulse has begun racing and that Boston is being urged to confront Gingrich.

“I do know that that the message is coming through to them that, ‘You need to have a third party going after Newt and if you can’t do it that way you’ve got to do it yourself,’” said the former chair.

(...) The debate now taking place among Romney’s supporters is whether — and how soon — such a newly sharpened focus ought to include direct attacks on Gingrich.

One high-profile GOP official said, because of the Cain collapse and the proximity of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, the answer is yes.

“He’s got to do it now and artfully,” said this Republican, suggesting a combined focus on Gingrich’s past policy positions and his purported lack of electability. “If you poke Newt he gets riled. They don’t have time to bank on [Gingrich imploding on his own].”

Huntsman confía en tener su oportunidad

Time:

To figure out what Huntsman’s been up to, I dropped in on a house party last Thursday night in tony Bedford, New Hampshire. The party was hosted by Dan Byrne, 60, who owns a consulting company. Byrne is an independent who voted for Joe Biden in the 2008 primary and Barack Obama in the general election. Huntsman delivered his stump speech with his usual eloquence, noting his economic plan and his foreign policy experience as President Obama’s ambassador to China. Byrne was impressed. “He’s moderate, well balanced, statesman-like and very smart,” Byrne said. Byrne says he’ll vote for Huntsman in the primary but would be torn if the choice is Huntsman versus President Obama in the general election.

In fact, many of those at the party — at least the five of the half dozen I spoke with — were Democratic-leaning independents. The questions ranged from where the governor stood on abortion–the questioner was pro-choice– to the extent of his green jobs plan. For virtually any other candidate in the field, except maybe Romney, this group would probably have been an unreceptive audience. A frequent comment about Huntsman that night: “He’s the sanest one running.”

In any other early-voting state but New Hampshire, this room would’ve been exceptional. Republican primary voters tend to be red meat conservatives — just look at Iowa, where evangelicals and home schoolers can swing the caucuses. But Huntsman chose early on not to contest the anti-Romney, Tea Party primary.

For Huntsman, New Hampshire is all important. A surprise win would catapult him into the top tier and give him momentum heading into Mormon-heavy Nevada, South Carolina and, crucially, Florida. Which is why Huntsman has invested heavily in the Granite State. He’s spent more days there than Romney and Gingrich. Huntsman’s Super PAC, Our Destiny PAC, partially funded by his billionaire father, who has at times been criticized for pushing his son’s political career in a Joe Kennedy-esque way, has been airing ads there.

That said, Huntsman hasn’t been breaking his back. He’s averaged 1.87 public events for the days he’s been in the state — 107 events over 57 days — according to WMUR’s James Pindell’s handy candidate tracker. (The campaign disputes this, saying he’s done 114 events over 51 days for an average of 2.23.) He isn’t hitting the panic button as Wesley Clark in did 2004, when after months of lackadaisical campaigning — one or two events a day — Clark scheduled a dozen events a day in the final month before the primary. “I’m feeling the forward motion. I think it’s very real. I think it’s palpable,” Huntsman told me after the Bedford party. “Nobody’s doing New Hampshire like we’re doing New Hampshire this cycle. I don’t know that you could fit in any more than we do.”

Huntsman is in a better place in New Hampshire polls than Clark was seven years ago. He recently broke double digits, thanks in part to his Super PAC. He had his strongest showing yet in CNN’s recent national security debate. And both George Will and Erick Erickson have said in the past week that Huntsman deserves a good look. “Romney is today where he was in New Hampshire four years ago. His support is wide but thin,” says Mark McKinnon, a GOP strategist and former adviser to President George W. Bush. “If [former House Speaker Newt Gingrich] wins Iowa, New Hampshire could quickly turn into a three-way race between Newt, Romney and Huntsman. At least Huntsman is headed north instead of south like Romney. And the key is which way you’re headed going into the final weeks.”

En Iowa, Gingrich se organiza a contrareloj

The Daily Caller:

Inside the quiet headquarters of Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign here are empty tables lining the wall.

These tables will soon be used by volunteers to dial potential caucus voters, something other Republican campaigns operating in the first state to vote in the 2012 race have long been doing.

But staffers with Gingrich’s campaign in Iowa on Monday morning were still waiting on a shipment of about 100 phones to arrive.

The campaign for the surging candidate — who is the front-runner in Iowa according to the latest Des Moines Register poll — is working furiously to get organized ahead of Iowa’s Jan. 3 caucuses and to get basic campaign tools like phones installed for volunteers.

While the former House speaker has surged in polls to the front of the pack here, his ground game has been non-existent in Iowa until just recently.

Gingrich only recently rehired his Iowa staff — some left the campaign in June — and opened up a headquarters in a modest office park outside of Des Moines last week.

It’s routine for presidential campaigns to use volunteers to make calls all day to Iowa Republicans to locate supporters and enlist help for the caucuses, said Tim Albrecht, a veteran of campaigns and the communications director for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad.

“It’s done through phone calls,” Albrecht told The Daily Caller of winning a caucus. “It’s not done through television ads. This isn’t a primary.”

“This is not people going to their usual voting location anytime between 7 a.m. and 9 p.m. casting a vote for their favorite candidate,” he said. “This is about showing up at 7 o’clock at maybe a school or maybe a church or maybe somebody’s living room — which is not your usual voting location — showing up on a cold winter night on Jan. 3 to cast your vote for your candidate.”

The campaign only has six paid staff in the state and no other offices.

Katie Koberg, a senior campaign adviser to Gingrich’s Iowa campaign, told The Daily Caller in an interview that Gingrich’s Iowa campaign is “lean, efficient, streamlined.”

“It’s not the number of offices you can open, and it’s not the number of people you can hire,” she said. “It always starts with and it always ends with the candidate and the message. And is the candidate and the message resonating? Absolutely. So if that’s working, then the other parts come into place.”

Koberg was among a handful of Gingrich staffers, both in Iowa and from the national campaign, who resigned en masse in June out of frustration with the campaign strategy put in place by the candidate. She returned to the campaign in November to help rebuild his state organization.

Steve Grubbs, who until this weekend led Herman Cain’s presidential campaign in Iowa — before the former Godfather’s Pizza CEO dropped out of the race, stressed the importance of a robust ground game that recruits precinct captains for caucus night.

“I would say Newt’s campaign is like a start-up business,” Grubbs told TheDC in an interview. “He suddenly has the financial resources and now he has to scale quickly.”

“On caucus night there are 1,800 precincts,” he said. “And most precincts will ask if there is somebody who will stand up and speak on behalf of a candidate. And to the extent that there are undecided voters in the room — and there are always a few — it’s important, I think, to have someone who makes a strong set of remarks for the candidate.”

He said former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Texas Rep. Ron Paul have the strongest ground organizations in the state.

“I think Gingrich is getting up to speed but he has a long way to go to catch up,” Grubbs said.

WaPo/ABC: Gingrich 33%, Romney 18%, Paul 18% en Iowa

The Washington Post:

With 33 percent support among likely caucus-goers in the new poll, Gingrich runs well ahead of his two main rivals, Romney and Paul, a libertarian whose passionate following and anti-government rhetoric have made him a durable force in the race. Both are at 18 percent.

But Iowa Republicans are far from decided. More than six in 10 potential caucus-goers say they could change their minds, and even among the likeliest attendees, fewer than half say they have definitely chosen a candidate.

Of the top three, Paul’s supporters are the most solid, followed by Gingrich’s and Romney’s.

Beyond the leaders, only Texas Gov. Rick Perry scores in the double digits, with 11 percent. Two candidates who have devoted as much or more time as any to the state — Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) and former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) — are in the single digits, at 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively. Running last among the major candidates is former Utah governor Jon Huntsman Jr., with 2 percent. Huntsman has staked his candidacy on a strong finish in New Hampshire.

Obama ahora quiere ser Teddy Roosevelt

Boston Globe:

President Barack Obama is channeling President Theodore Roosevelt, embracing a mantle of economic fairness for the nation's middle class Tuesday that draws parallels to the progressive reformer's calls for a "square deal" for regular Americans more than a century ago.

Obama intends to use a speech in small town Osawatomie, Kan. -- where Roosevelt delivered his "New Nationalism" address in 1910 -- to lay out economic themes of giving middle-class workers a fair shake and greater financial security, concepts the president will probably return to repeatedly during the 2012 campaign.

Only a month before Republican voters begin choosing a presidential nominee, the White House said Obama would describe this as a "make-or-break moment" for the middle class and those hoping to join it that demands balance and rules of the road to help strengthen working families.

"Now is not the time to slam on the brakes. Now is the time to step on the gas," Obama said Monday at the White House. "Now is the time to keep growing the economy, to keep creating jobs, to keep giving working Americans the boost that they need."

Obama is pressuring Congress to support an extension of a payroll tax cut that the White House says will give a $1,000 tax cut to a typical family earning $50,000 a year. The president is coupling that with efforts to renew a program of extended unemployment benefits set to expire Dec. 31.

(...) In Kansas, Obama plans to show that the economic struggles many Americans currently face are similar to the conditions when Roosevelt spoke in Osawatomie on Aug. 31, 1910, about a year after he left the White House. Roosevelt declared in the speech that he stood for a "square deal," which he said did not only mean "fair play under the present rules of the games, but that I stand for having those rules changed so as to work for a more substantial equality of opportunity and of reward for equally good service."

Republicans noted that Roosevelt also used the speech to denounce broken promises in politics, saying Obama had fallen short of rebuilding the economy, reducing the debt and curtailing special interests. Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski said the president was "desperately trying new slogans and messages to see what sticks because he can't figure out how to sell his last three years of high unemployment and more debt."

PPP: Gingrich 27%, Paul 18%, Romney 16% en Iowa

Public Policy Polling:

Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP's newest poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters with 27% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Rick Perry, 6% for Rick Santorum, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has gained 19 points since PPP's last poll of the race in early October. Also showing momentum are Paul whose support is up 8% and Bachmann whose support is up 5%. Romney has dropped 6 points since then with the other candidates mostly standing in place.

Gingrich's rise to the top is being fueled by strong support from seniors and the Tea Party. With voters over 65 he's at 37% leading Romney's 18% and Paul's 11% by 19 and 26 points respectively. With Tea Party voters Gingrich is at 35% with Bachmann actually coming in at second with 23%, Paul in third at 14%, and Romney all the way back at just 4%.

Paul's benefiting from the lack of action on the Democratic side this year. 20% of likely caucus goers are either Democrats or independents and with them he's leading the way with 28% to 18% for Gingrich and 13% for Romney and Bachmann. He's also very strong with younger voters, getting 23% with those under 45 to 21% for Gingrich, 16% for Bachmann, and 15% for Romney.

Huntsman en The Kudlow Report (CNBC)

Bachmann en The O'Reilly Factor (Fox News)

Dan Quayle anunciará que apoya a Romney

Es el primero del grupo de ex Presidentes, ex Vicepresidentes, ex nominados presidenciales o ex nominados vicepresidenciales que se pronuncia a favor de alguno de los candidatos.

The Associated Press:

Former Vice President Dan Quayle is endorsing Mitt Romney for president.

Republican officials on Monday told The Associated Press that Quayle plans to announce his support for the former Massachusetts governor Tuesday afternoon.

Romney has an event scheduled Tuesday in Paradise Valley, Ariz., where Quayle has a home.

Quayle served as vice president under President George H.W. Bush. He was a House member from Indiana for two terms and a U.S. senator.

A GOP official familiar with Quayle’s thinking says the former vice president is backing Romney because he views Romney as the most credible candidate in the race. The official requested anonymity to discuss Quayle’s endorsement ahead of the official announcement.

Rueda de prensa de Gingrich

Durante una recaudación de fondos en el Union League Club de Nueva York, el Speaker Gingrich ha dicho que quiere convertir los próximos comicios en una elección entre un Presidente (Obama) que quiere que las familias pobres sean dependientes de los programas de cupones de alimentos, y un candidato (él mismo) que quiere inculcar la ética del trabajo a los niños pobres de las comunidades de viviendas de interés social que no tienen referencias de trabajo en sus adultos, con iniciativas que les hagan comprender que el dinero se gana. Cree que ese contraste le permitirá competir en los 50 estados.

A continuación, ha respondido a las preguntas de la prensa sobre distintos asuntos de la campaña.