Gingrich exhibe retórica anti-establishment en This Morning (CBS)

Charlie Rose (CBS), destacado trilateralista y participante habitual en las reuniones del Club Bilderberg, le ha preguntado a Gingrich sobre por qué razón cree que está siendo atacado por los medios conservadores, incluso por personas que trabajaron con él en el Congreso.

"En muchos casos, es porque son parte del establishment," ha respondido Gingrich. "Mira sus vínculos, mira de dónde viene su dinero. Los establishments de Nueva York y Washington juntos quieren a alguien en quien pueden confiar: alguien como, por ejemplo, Romney, que elogió al Secretario del Tesoro Geithner, alguien que se sienta cómodo con su principal donante recibiendo 13, 15 o 20,000 millones de dólares en dinero del contribuyente. Dirán y harán prácticamente cualquier cosa para mantener vivo el sistema, y creo que reconocen que yo soy un genuino outsider. Sé mucho sobre Washington habiendo servido como Speaker. No tengo ningún vínculo con el establishment, y reestructuraré radicalmente el sistema. Ellos no quieren que se cambie. Están muy cómodos presidiendo la decadencia, ya que consiguen seguir jugando a sus juegos."

Romney en Today (NBC)

El candidato ha restado importancia al papel de sus asesores en la recuperación de su candidatura en la última semana, y ha preferido destacar su buena actuación en los debates.

"Ceo que puedes esperar que los asesores piensen que el trabajo de los asesores es muy, muy importante, pero fráncamente, creo que si retrocedes y miras dónde cambió el sentimiento, fue con los debates."

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Febrero representa un problema para Gingrich

First Read:

He has a February problem. For the next three weeks, there are four caucuses and no debates. So where does he make his move? Can he make a stand in Adelson’s Nevada (not likely because the GOP primary was more than a quarter Mormon), Arizona, or Minnesota?

Hillary Clinton ran into this after Super Tuesday when she was essentially tied with Obama on delegates and then he went on to rattle off a series of small-state victories in February. Clinton willed herself to Ohio, but, by then, in hindsight, the delegate match actually pointed to the fact it was closer to being over than maybe we all realized at the time.

Gingrich desperately wants to get to March because there are a slew of Southern primaries that could give him some much-needed victories.. That said, don’t expect the Romney campaign to make the same mistake they made after Iowa. Expect it not to let up on Gingrich this time like they did then

En la carretera

¿Qué hace un candidato en su autobús de campaña entre parada y parada? Ayer un fotógrafo de Associated Press acompañó a Mitt Romney en los 200 kilómetros que separan Naples de Miami, y captó al candidato haciendo un puzzle con su nieto, preparando un sandwich de crema de cacahuete y miel para merendar, utilizando su iPad, y siguiendo atentamente un mitin de Gingrich por televisión.

Memo de Team Gingrich: las primarias sólo están empezando

The Daily Caller:

An internal Gingrich campaign memo obtained by The Daily Caller shows the campaign is planning to continue long after Tuesday’s Florida primary, stating simply: “this race is just getting started.”

The memo, from National Political Director Martin Baker, notes Romney’s lack of conservative grassroots support, and stresses that Romney currently has just 33 of the 1144 needed (Gingrich has 25 of 1144).

“Regardless of who wins on Tuesday,” the memo says, “they will have less than 10% of the delegates they need to claim the nomination….”

(...) More than 20 percent of the available delegates (467) will be awarded on Super Tuesday, and the memo notes that, one of the Super Tuesday states is Georgia, with 76 delegates at stake. To put that in perspective, “even if Romney wins Florida on Tuesday, he will only have 83 total delegates; Newt’s home state could effectively cancel out his entire delegate count to date.”

The memo also describes Tennessee (58) and Oklahoma (43) as “favorable” Super Tuesday states, and notes that just one week after Super Tuesday (March 13), 90 delegates will be in play in Alabama and Mississippi. And if the point that a Florida loss is survivable wasn’t already hammered home, the memo notes, “these 90 [delegates] alone are more than the 83 Romney will have in hand on Wednesday morning if he wins Florida.”

Gingrich piensa a largo plazo

POLITICO.com:

Florida may well be a painful body blow, but Gingrich appears deadly serious about a long, bloody march all the way to Tampa — a scenario that is giving the GOP establishment nightmares.

(...) The new rules in which states will distribute their delegates proportionally instead of by winner-take-all rules means that Gingrich can keep accruing a sizable number of delegates even if Romney is besting him.

(...) Previewing his post-Florida message, Gingrich told reporters outside a megachurch here Sunday that he would seek to carry the Anybody But Mitt banner.

“When you take all the non-Romney votes, it’s very likely that at the convention there will be a non-Romney majority and maybe a very substantial one,” he said. “My job is to convert that into a Gingrich majority.”

Such Tampa talk has key party leaders worried.

Even as they breathe a sigh of relief about Romney’s apparent Florida turnaround, some party establishment types are nonetheless bracing for a protracted and ugly fight between factions that the GOP hasn’t seen for decades.

(...) Gingrich’s campaign is pointing to a group of Southern and Southwestern states with contests in March and April in which it thinks it will take at least a plurality of delegates: Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, Mississippi and Texas.

The campaign notes that after Florida, just 115 of the 2288 total delegates will have been awarded – just over 5 percent.

“The proportional nature of the upcoming contests essentially guarantees that no candidate will secure the nomination anytime soon, and the map gets better for us as we get deeper into the calendar,” said Gingrich adviser Kellyanne Conway.

Of course, presidential primary campaigns on the verge of losing the next state always like to take the long view. It’s especially crucial for Gingrich’s camp to make the case because Romney appears poised to do well in Nevada, Michigan and Arizona next month.

But Gingrich and his aides take heart in two factors unique to this campaign.

First, the former speaker has already collapsed twice and twice gotten back off the mat. If he can come back from losing his entire senior campaign staff, as he did last summer, and rebound from a shellacking and distant fourth-place finish in Iowa, why can’t he overcome a Florida loss?

Further, this primary has to date proved immune to momentum – each contest has been a discrete affair. Santorum got no bounce in New Hampshire after his virtual tie in Iowa and Romney enjoyed no boost in South Carolina after a convincing victory in New Hampshire. So even if Romney were to win big here Tuesday, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll immediately consolidate the party.

And, in addition to his limited future options, Gingrich’s past also suggests he’s in it for the long haul.

“He lost his first two races before he won in ’78,” noted Jackie Cushman, his daughter. “He just perseveres. I think of him as the Energizer bunny — he just keeps going.”

To keep beating the drum, Gingrich is going to need to step up his fundraising.

In a memo it released to the press Sunday night, the campaign said it is “now in a position where we will be able to respond to Romney’s ads in every state moving forward.”

What may be even more crucial, though, is whether casino magnate Sheldon Adelson keeps pumping money into Gingrich’s super PAC.

While he’s barred from coordinating plans, Gingrich will be in Las Vegas this week ahead of the Nevada caucuses and is likely to sit down with Adelson, according to sources.

Eventos de campaña en directo

Último día de campaña para Romney y Gingrich en Florida.

Santorum retoma la campaña después de la mejoría de su hija, pero no en Florida. Ya empieza a pensar en los estados que votarán en febrero. Estará en Minnesota y Missouri.

Ron Paul hoy descansa. Mañana estará en Colorado.

CNN Live emitirá hoy en vivo, entre otros, los siguientes eventos:

08:10 AM Race to 2012: Romney rallies supporters
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks with supporters in Jacksonville, Florida.

10:00 AM Race to 2012: Gingrich talks to voters
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks with potential primary voters in Pensacola, Florida.

01:00 PM Race to 2012: Gingrich in Tampa
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich addresses potential primary voters in Tampa, Florida.

02:15 PM Race to 2012: Romney meets with supporters
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney talks to supporters at a campaign rally in Dunedin, Florida.

03:00 PM Race to 2012: Gingrich rallies voters
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich addresses a grassroots rally in Fort Myers, Florida.

03:30 PM Race to 2012: Santorum in Missouri
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum discusses the economy, jobs and American competitiveness in Cottleville, Missouri.

06:00 PM Race to 2012: Gingrich goes to Orlando
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich speaks to potential primary voters in Orlando, Florida.

06:10 PM Race to 2012: Romney talks with seniors
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney addresses residents of The Villages senior community in Florida.

Última encuesta de Quinnipiac y penúltima de PPP en Florida

Quinnipiac University:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a 43 - 29 percent lead over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among Republican likely voters in Florida, the nation's first big-state presidential primary, according to Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 7 percent are undecided, but 24 percent say they might change their mind by tomorrow's election.

This compares to a 38 - 29 percent Romney lead in a January 27 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's survey, self-described conservatives go to Romney 40 - 31 percent. He gets 38 percent of white evangelical Christians to Gingrich's 33 percent and wins 40 percent of Tea Party members to Gingrich's 35 percent.

Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum each have 11 percent of likely primary voters today.

Romney gets a 64 - 25 percent favorability rating from likely primary voters, compared to 61 - 28 percent Friday. Gingrich has 51 - 42 percent favorability, compared to 50 - 28 percent Friday. Santorum is at 58 - 16 percent favorable, with a negative 35 - 45 percent for Paul.

"Gov. Mitt Romney is headed towards a double-digit victory that touches all the GOP bases," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Romney carries every part of the GOP coalition, including the parts central to Gingrich - self- described conservatives, white evangelical Christians and Tea Party supporters. If this margin holds up tomorrow, it's hard to see where Gingrich goes from here."

Public Policy Polling:

PPP's second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday's polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.

The reason we don't find Gingrich getting blown out by a double digit margin in Florida is that he's winning a lot of the same groups he did in South Carolina. He's up 37-33 with Evangelicals, 40-33 with Tea Partiers, and 36-29 with voters who describe themselves as 'very conservative.' The problem for him is that he's not winning those groups by the same kinds of margins that he did in the Palmetto State.

Romney continues to have a large lead in the bank in Florida. 34% of our respondents said they'd already voted and with those folks he has a 45-33 lead. That puts Gingrich in a position where he'd have to not only win the election day vote, but win it by 6 or 7 points to upset Romney in the state. The kind of reversal necessary to make that happen seems unlikely to occur in the next 48 hours.

Almost Romney's entire lead in Florida is coming from moderate voters. He has a 58-15 lead over Gingrich with them and only a 1 point advantage with the rest of the electorate. Other groups that continue to be a particular source of strength for Romney are seniors (48-32) and women (43-30).

We will have one final night of Florida tracking tomorrow.

El voto femenino, punto flaco de Gingrich en Florida

Romney prueba el lechón a la cubana

Acompañado de líderes del exilio anti-castrista, el Gobernador Romney visitó ayer Casa Marín, un popular restaurante cubano en Hialeah, a las afueras de Miami. Posó junto a un lechón asado, lo troceó, y lo sirvió.

InsiderAdvantage dice que Gingrich está recuperando terreno en FL

Newsmax:

A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sunday night of likely Republican voters in the state of Florida shows a significant surge for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

The poll has former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leading with 36 percent of voters, followed by Gingrich at 31 percent.

The Sunday results of 646 likely GOP voters are as follows:

Romney 36 percent
Gingrich 31 percent
Santorum 12 percent
Paul 12 percent
Other/Undecided 9 percent

"The race will be tighter than expected," Matt Towery, chief pollster of InsiderAdvantage told Newsmax.

Towery noted that his poll showed a surge for Romney on Wednesday, with him leading Gingrich by 8 points. The InsiderAdvantage poll was among the first to show Romney's resurgence after his dismal showing in the S. Carolina primary.

The InsiderAdvantage poll was also the first to show Gingrich's rise in S. Carolina and accurately forecast his win there.

"The trend is favoring Gingrich," Towery said, noting that while Romney's lead was still outside the margin of error of 3.8 percent, "It's not by much."

Towery said Gingrich is doing "substantially better" with men than Romney, 38 to 28, but the former House Speaker still faces a "gender gap," as women are still favoring Romney.

"Men are moving in droves to Gingrich and away from Romney," Towery said.

As for Florida's important Latino vote, InsiderAdvantage has Gingrich beating Romney by a large margin, leading 42 percent to 29 percent.

Michael C. Bender, de Bloomberg, escribía anoche en twitter:

Newt just stopped by press dinner table in Jax to say Insider Advantage poll will show him w/i 5 points. "The momentum is now w/ me."

Rasmussen: Romney amplía su ventaja en FL

Rasmussen:

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has opened a double-digit lead in Florida as the perception grows among Republican primary voters that he is the strongest general election candidate against President Obama. The state's GOP Primary is on Tuesday.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, conducted Saturday, shows Romney up by 16 points with 44% support. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is a distant second at 28%.

These figures reflect a significant turnaround over the past week. Last Sunday, just after his big win in the South Carolina Primary, Gingrich led Romney by nine. By the middle of this past week, Romney was back in control with an eight-point advantage. Despite all the ups and downs, the results today are very similar to polling results found in Florida three weeks ago, coming off Romney’s decisive victory in the New Hampshire Primary.

Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earns 12% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 10%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Republican voters are looking first and foremost for a candidate who can beat Obama. Earlier in the week, when Gingrich was leading in Florida, the Sunshine State's primary voters were evenly divided as to whether Romney or Gingrich would be the stronger general election candidate. By mid-week, as Romney regained the lead, he had a 15-point advantage over Gingrich on this question. Today, 53% believe that Romney is the strongest candidate against the president, and only 29% think Gingrich fits that role.

Romney en Pompano Beach, Florida

Pompano Beach forma parte del área metropolitana de Fort Lauderdale, al sureste de Florida.

El rap de Newt Gingrich

Tres jóvenes seguidores de Florida le han hecho un tema de rap que dice, “Yeah hot, hot, hot... hey everybody vote for Newt!”

El Las Vegas Review-Journal apoya a Romney

Es el periódico más vendido en Nevada, que vota el próximo sábado, y es muy conservador; para que os hagáis una idea, en 2010 apoyó a Sharron Angle.

Las Vegas Review-Journal:

This race is between former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia.

(...) But Mr. Gingrich's tenure as speaker was brief. He burned bridges and became a divisive figure for much of the electorate. After resigning from office in 1999 under pressure from his party, Mr. Gingrich became a political consultant.

Mr. Romney, on the other hand, has less political experience and a lifetime in the business world. His greatest strength is his command of economic issues and his understanding of what the private sector needs to create jobs. He has criticized the uncertainty President Obama and Congress have created by not passing budgets and refusing to provide businesses and investors with a predictable, permanent tax code. And he understands the economic ruin that lies ahead if Washington can't conquer its spending addiction. "We can't have a government that keeps spending more than it takes in, otherwise enterprise will not invest in America," he said.

Mr. Romney is pro-growth all the way. He wants the country to develop all its energy resources, not punish the oil, coal and gas sectors. He wants states and citizens to have more freedom to innovate. And perhaps most importantly, Mr. Romney is a Washington outsider, not a capital insider.

Nevada Republicans should attend their caucuses with two questions in mind. Who best represents their party? And who has the best chance to defeat President Obama? We believe Mitt Romney is the answer to both of those questions.

Gingrich en The Villages, Florida

The Villages es una exclusiva comunidad de jubilados que se encuentra a medio camino entre Tampa y Orlando. Con una población de cerca de 80,000 habitantes, la mayoría mayores de 55 años, es la ciudad que más rápido ha crecido en todo EEUU en la última década. En el año 2000 tenía sólo 8,000 habitantes, diez veces menos que ahora.

Hay ni más ni menos que 34,239 votantes afiliados al Partido Republicano en The Villages, y son de los que no se pierden una elección, así que se les considera "supervotantes", igual que a los cubanos de Miami. Y como pasa con los cubanos, a los republicanos de The Villages se les considera más afines a Romney: en 2008 McCain ganó la primaria de Florida, pero Romney se llevó el condado de Sumter, donde se encuentra la mayor parte de The Villages, por un cómodo 40%-28%.

El Speaker Gingrich ha llegado esta tarde a la ciudad. Se ha autoproclamado "legítimo heredero del movimiento de Reagan", casi nada, se ha referido a Romney como el "liberal de Massachusetts" (ya no es más el "moderado de Massachusetts"), ha arremetido contra el establishment y Wall Street, y ha hablado de empleo y política exterior.

Mañana llega Romney a la ciudad.

Romney pide a Gingrich que deje las excusas y se mire al espejo

El Gobernador Romney, durante un mitin hoy en Naples, al suroeste de Florida:

"(Gingrich) Está ahora buscando excusas. Ha estado en la tele esta mañana, yendo de una emisora a otra, quejándose sobre lo que piensa que son las razones de sus dificultades aquí en la Florida. Pero sabéis, ya tenemos un Presidente que pone muchas excusas, y las excusas han terminado. Es hora de producir. Creo que cada uno de nosotros, si fallamos en algo, si fallamos en los debates, o si fallamos a la hora de conseguir el apoyo de la gente, es hora de mirarse al espejo. Y en mi opinión, la razón por la que el Speaker Gingrich está encontrando dificultades en Florida es porque la gente de Florida ha visto los debates, han escuchado al Speaker, han escuchado a otros candidatos, y han dicho, '¿sabéis qué? Mitt Romney es el candidato que vamos a apoyar'...

"Señor Speaker, su problema en Florida no es que la audiencia (de los debates) sea demasiado silenciosa o demasiado enérgica. O que tenga oponentes que son duros. Su problema en Florida es que trabajó para Freddie Mac en un momento en que Freddie Mac no estaba haciendo lo correcto para el pueblo americano. Y usted estaba vendiendo su influencia en Washington cuando necesitábamos personas que defendieran la verdad en Washington."

Tiene a Gingrich donde quería.

Gingrich en This Week (ABC)

Ha vuelto el Newt Gingrich quejoso y enojado que tan poco atractivo resultó en la recta final de la campaña en Iowa. Nada que ver con el Gingrich gamberro y risueño que llegó a Florida hace siete días. Y el mérito hay que reconocérselo a Team Romney.

Esta mañana en This Week, hemos visto al ex Speaker a la defensiva.

Ha cuestionado el carácter de Romney, describiéndolo como alguien "fundamentalmente deshonesto."

"Digo que (Romney) no estaría donde está ahora, los debates de esta semana no hubieran sido como fueron, si hubiera dicho la verdad... Y creo que ese es un problema muy serio para alguien."

Ha acusado a Romney de hacer una "campaña de vilipendio" basada en afirmaciones "objetivamente falsas" y en un bombardeo por saturación de anuncios negativos.

Ron Paul en State of the Union (CNN)

El candidato insiste en que su estrategia pasa por ganar momentum en los estados que celebran caucuses. Y confirma su intención de permanecer como candidato hasta la convención. Dice que habrá momentos altos y bajos pero que en los momentos malos serán capaces de volver a levantarse.

La importancia del voto por adelantado

Nate Silver:

About one-third of Floridians have already voted. Since Mr. Gingrich only led Mr. Romney for a few fleeting days in the polls, that means that Mr. Romney should have banked an advantage, and that Mr. Gingrich would need to win by perhaps 5 or 10 points on Election Day to claim the state.

That could also lessen the impact of late-breaking developments in the news cycle — like Mr. Gingrich receiving the endorsement of Herman Cain.

NBC/Marist: Romney le saca 15 puntos a Gingrich en FL

NBC News:

Mitt Romney may be on his way to a decisive victory in the Florida GOP primary Tuesday, according to a new NBC/Marist poll.

Romney leads Newt Gingrich by 15 points, 42 percent to 27 percent in the crucial state. Rick Santorum is third with 16 percent, followed by Ron Paul with 11 percent. Just 4 percent said they were undecided.

"The bottom line in all this is Romney's sitting in the driver's seat going into Tuesday," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College, who conducted the poll.

(...) Romney beats Gingrich and the rest of the field by winning broadly across many subgroups -- those who are not Tea Party supporters (52 percent), those who are liberal or moderate (49 percent), make more than $75,000 a year (49 percent), identify as "conservative" (47 percent), and, in particular with women.

There was a stark gender gap between Romney and Gingrich. Women said they preferred Romney by 47-26 percent over Gingrich. The gap is closer with men, but Romney leads with them as well, 38-29 percent.

"He's winning both," Miringoff said, "but runs up the score among women."

Romney also does well enough with Tea Party supporters, splitting the vote with Gingrich. Gingrich leads among that group, 36 percent to 34 percent, with Santorum taking 22 percent. And, Romney runs even or leads Gingrich in the traditionally more conservative northern part of the state. In addition, more GOP primary voters said Romney represented their views on immigration than any other candidate.

Romney also leads among evangelical Christians, receiving the support of 34 percent, compared to 28 percent for Gingrich. Six-in-10 GOP primary voters said they believed Mormons are Christians. But even among those who say they don't believe so, Romney splits the vote with Gingrich. In 2008, born-again or evangelical voters made up 39 percent of the GOP primary in Florida, lower than the 60 percent who identified as such in Iowa and South Carolina.

Gingrich leads Santorum among "very conservative" voters 36 percent to 29 percent. Romney gets about a quarter of that group -- 24 percent.

But Gingrich would have a hard time arguing that a majority is voting against Romney, and that if Santorum were not in the race, he would win. When Santorum is removed from the equation, his vote splits off evenly between Romney and Gingrich -- and Romney leads Gingrich by an even wider 16-point margin, 49-33 percent.