Agasajando a la prensa

Mitt Romney sorprendió ayer con una tarta de cumpleaños a Maeve Reston, reportera de Los Angeles Times, y repartió patatas fritas entre los miembros de la prensa que está siguiendo su campaña.

Más publicidad negativa que nunca

The Daily Beast:

No, it’s not your imagination. Things are uglier than ever in the Sunshine State.

A staggering 92 percent of the political ads run in Florida over the last week of the campaign have been negative.

“For as long as I’ve been in politics, 14 years, journalists call me and ask if this is the most negative election ad atmosphere I've ever seen,” says Kenneth Goldstein, president of Kantar Media CMAG, which tracks content and targeting of political advertising. “And every year I say, Don’t be ridiculous."

“But this year it's true. This primary season is the most negative it's ever been,” asserts Goldstein. “I have absolutely never seen television advertising so negative in a Republican presidential primary.”

This tsunami of sleaze is being propelled by unprecedented advertising buys. The Romney campaign and its associated super PAC, Restore Our Future, have spent $15.3 million in Florida over the past month alone, according to Maggie Haberman of Politico. To put this in perspective, John McCain spent $11 million on ads during his entire 2008 primary campaign. Back on this side of Citizens United, Newt Gingrich and his billionaire-backed super PAC have “only” spent an estimated $3 million—giving Romney a 5-to-1 spending advantage in the Sunshine State.

(...) “The Romney camp made a very clear decision that this was going to be somebody's Waterloo,” says Rick Wilson, a legendary Republican operative and CEO of Florida-based Intrepid Media. “In the past, a 60-40 positive to negative ratio in ads used to be considered a heavy load. But that world is just gone.”

“The scope and effectiveness of their negative campaigning have been breathtaking—and it’s all paid off,” says Wilson. “They figured out on the fly that Romney showing fight and backbone—not being a squishy-soft, mealy-mouthed, half-assed campaigner—could bear dividends with conservatives. Because everything comes down to 'will we have a candidate who takes it hard to Obama?'…And he's narrowed the gap. Tea Party conservatives are split between Romney and Gingrich—which would have been unimaginable in South Carolina.”

“This is all because they shaped the battlefield a month in advance, starting by going off on Gingrich's baggage—Freddie and Fannie, his electability, sitting on the couch with Nancy Pelosi—and they never backed off, which is a common mistake,” concludes Wilson. “They realized that Gingrich is like a zombie—if you don't shoot him in the head he'll just go and go and go.”

(...) The barrage of negative ads has been effective—Newt’s momentum coming off a South Carolina win seems to have been stopped by Romney’s money. It’s a play we saw in Iowa, where CMAG concluded that 45 percent of the total ads aired were anti-Newt, pushing Gingrich from first to fourth in a matter of weeks. Gingrich’s brief attempt to honor Reagan’s 11th commandment was not rewarded with popular support. In Florida, a must-win state for Romney, the decision was made to go all in: “In the last two weeks, they decided that the campaign would have the same level of negative as the super PAC,” asserts Wilson. “They realize that the fig leaf is off—and they're using the same kind of messages, just as hard and vigorous.”

Traditionally, there have been risks associated with going negative. “One of the reasons you don’t generally see a lot of negative ads in primaries is that it can be a murder-suicide,” says Kenneth Goldstein. “Think of Gephardt versus Dean in the ‘04 Iowa caucus. You might end up helping a third candidate, like Kerry and Edwards, in that case. But this is now seen as a two-person race—Romney versus Gingrich—and so there seems to be less to lose.”

Última encuesta de PPP en FL: Romney 39%, Gingrich 31%

Public Policy Polling:

PPP's tracking of the Florida Republican primary wraps up with Mitt Romney at 39%, Newt Gingrich at 31%, Rick Santorum at 15%, and Ron Paul at 11%. Our three days of tracking found very little movement in the race: Romney was at 39-40% every day, Gingrich was at 31-32% every day, Santorum was at 14-15% every day, and Paul was at 9-11% every day.

The lack of movement in the final 72 hours of the campaign is a far cry from the dramatic shifts Florida Republicans made in their preferences over the last four months. In late September we found Mitt Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich by 20 points in the state. By late November, as he surged nationally, Gingrich had taken a 30 point led over Romney. But then our first poll in early January, after poor performances by Gingrich in Iowa and New Hampshire, found Romney back on top by 15 points. Riding a (short lived) wave of momentum off his South Carolina victory, Gingrich led our Florida poll last week by 5 points. By the end of the week the race had swung back to Romney and over the last three days his lead has been steady in the 7-8 point range.

One thing Romney did a great job of was getting his voters out early. With the third of the electorate who have already cast their ballots he leads 45-32. That means Gingrich would have to win election day voters by somewhere in the 6-8 point range to pull off the Florida upset, but we find that Romney still has a 36-30 advantage with those are waiting to vote tomorrow.

Romney will win in Florida tomorrow because he's winning his core groups of support by wide margins, while holding Gingrich to single digit advantages with his key constituencies. Romney is winning moderates by 39 (53-14), seniors by 12 (46-32), and women by 12 (42-30). Meanwhile Gingrich is only up 8 with Tea Partiers (39-31) and 6 with Evangelicals (38-32), groups he won by huge margins in South Carolina.

Lo que hay que saber de la primaria de Florida

Es día de primarias en Florida. Las urnas abrirán a las 7 de la mañana y la mayoría cerrarán a las 7 de la noche (en el Panhandle a las 8).

Como es una "primaria cerrada", sólo pueden votar aquellos que estuvieran ya registrados como republicanos cuando se entró en el año nuevo. No son pocos. Constituyen un electorado más largo que lo que hemos visto en Iowa, NH y Carolina del Sur. Más largo incluso que la suma de todos los votos emitidos en esos tres estados. Y también más diverso.

Casi 4.1 millones de republicanos están llamados a las urnas hoy en Florida, y 630,000 ya han votado por adelantado. En 2008 participó el 51% de los republicanos registrados, 1.9 millones. Este año hay unos 300,000 republicanos registrados más que entonces, así que una participación similar, del 51%, serían algo más de 2 millones de votos. Aunque el resultado parece menos incierto que entonces, así que los expertos pronostican que votarán entre 1.5 y 2 millones.

Los condados que hay que seguir con mayor atención por el número de votos que aportan son: Miami-Dade (Miami), Palm Beach (West Palm Beach) y Broward (Fort Lauderdale) en el sureste; Pinellas y Hillsborough en la bahía de Tampa; Orange (Orlando) en la Florida central; Brevard en la costa espacial; y Duval (Jacksonville) en el extremo noreste.

A Florida le correspondían 99 delegados en la Convención Nacional Republicana, pero el partido la castigó por adelantar su primaria, y se ha quedado en 50 delegados. El ganador de la primaria se llevará los 50. Pero la cosa no es tan sencilla. Estamos en Florida y ya conocéis la afición de este estado a meterse en líos electorales. Según las normas, basta que un republicano registrado presente una protesta formal al comité nacional del partido, para que este se vea obligado a reconsiderar el sistema de adjudicación de delegados antes de la convención. Así que si la nominación está igualada, podría haber más adelante una disputa por los delegados de Florida.

Romney canta "America the Beautiful"

Romney en The Villages, Florida

Mitt Romney cerró ayer su campaña en Florida con un rally nocturno al aire libre, cantando 'America the Beautiful' con los jubilados de The Villages. No hizo mención a Gingrich y se concentró en Obama. Prometió revocar el ObamaCare y aseguró a los jubilados que no les va a quitar el Medicare y la Seguridad Social.

Romney tenía programados eventos para esta mañana pero los ha cancelado y ha optado por descansar y esperar resultados en un hotel de Tampa. Es la señal más evidente de que su equipo da por hecho que lo tiene ganado; por el contrario, Gingrich va a estar visitando recintos electorales.

(click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

Gingrich en Orlando, Florida

En su último acto de ayer, un desafiante Newt Gingrich predijo una victoria decisiva para hoy y atacó a Romney, a Obama, a los medios, y a Goldman Sachs. "Estoy en esta carrera donde Ronald Reagan estaba en 1976... Vamos a decir la verdad, vamos a derrotar una campaña de grandes mentiras con una campaña de grandes verdades, vamos a derrotar al poder del dinero con el poder de la gente, vamos a ir hasta el final, hasta la convención, y vamos a ganar en Tampa, y voy a ser el nominado con vuestra ayuda."

Romney en Hannity (Fox News)

Gingrich en Hannity (Fox News)

Continúa: Parte 2

Ron Paul en The Kudlow Report (CNBC)

Santorum en John King USA (CNN)

Brett O’Donnell, el "game-changer" de la primaria de Florida

The Washington Post:

The call went out the night Mitt Romney lost the South Carolina primary.

Brett O’Donnell, award winning debate-coach to college students and presidential candidates alike, was needed in Florida, where Romney would be preparing for two televised debates over the next five days that could be pivotal to his chances of winning the state’s Jan. 31 primary.

O’Donnell was in Tampa the next day, and less than 48 hours later, a pithier and more combative Romney showed up Jan. 23 to debate Newt Gingrich, who had dominated two such televised gatherings in South Carolina in performances strategists credited with propelling him to victory there Jan. 21.

Romney’s feistier delivery and more aggressive style that night -- reprised Jan. 26 in Jacksonville -- may have helped turn the tide for him in Florida, where polls show him surging.

(...) It came as no surprise to campaign operatives and debate specialists who have worked with O’Donnell and call him a master coach, as adept at preparing candidates to make their points succinctly as he is at pumping them up before they take the stage.

“Brett actually studied and taught debate at the highest levels before bringing his considerable chops to politics,” said Mark McKinnon, a Republican strategist who worked with O’Donnell on former President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign.

Romney, 64, deserves most of the credit for his improved debate performances last week, McKinnon said, adding: “But having Brett O’Donnell aboard for debate prep is going to raise the level of anyone’s game, because Brett is simply the best in the business.”

Romney: es triste ver a Gingrich

Visiblemente contento y en mangas de camisa en un rally al sol en Dunedin, en la zona de la bahía de Tampa, el Gobernador Romney se ha referido a la exasperación de Gingrich:

"¡Dios mío! Sé que el Speaker no está contento. El Speaker Gingrich no está muy entusiasmado estos días... Lo sé, es triste. Ha estado haciendo aspavientos para perseguirme por una cosa o por otra, ya lo habéis visto y habéis negado con la cabeza. Ha sido terriblemente revelador el verlo. Creo que la razón por la que no le va bien es por esos dos últimos debates, ¿no creéis?"

Gingrich firma un poster que compara a Romney con Obama

Durante el rally de Tampa, Gingrich ha firmado y ha mostrado al público el poster de un seguidor en el que se podía leer, "no te engañes, ObamaCare es RomneyCare."

Gingrich en Tampa, Florida

Michael Reagan, hijo mayor del Presidente Reagan, y Herman Cain, han presentado a Newt Gingrich en un rally celebrado en un hangar de un aeropuerto de Tampa. Los mítines en los hangares son frecuentes en las últimas horas de una campaña para volver rápidamente al avión y salir pitando hacia otra ciudad.

El candidato ha recordado a sus seguidores que mañana es un día grande de verdad. Les ha dicho que sigue peleando a pesar de que Romney ha gastado "17.5 millones de dólares en falsedades", y ha mencionado una encuesta de Dixie Strategies con una muestra de unos 2,500 votantes probables, que hablaba de empate técnico hace dos días.

Ha cerrado su intervención pidiendo ayuda a los votantes para enviar mañana un mensaje en forma de victoria a George Soros, Goldman Sachs, y compañía. "Necesitamos vuestra ayuda: os necesitamos en Facebook, os necesitamos twiteando, os necesitamos en el correo electrónico. Necesitamos que llaméis a la gente, y, soy un anticuado, os necesitamos hablando cara a cara con la gente."

Romney resta importancia a Gingrich

Los periodistas le preguntan en el avión qué opina sobre la promesa de Gingrich de seguir hasta la convención pase lo que pase mañana, y el Gobernador Romney responde:

"Ese es habitualmente un indicio de que crees que vas a perder. Cuando dices, 'voy a seguir sin importar lo que ocurra', eso normalmente no es una buena señal. Yo estoy esperanzado en conseguir los delegados que necesito y estar en la convención con el número que se necesita para ser el nominado. Pero todo el mundo tiene derecho a permanecer (en la carrera) mientras quiera."

Jai Alai

En esta semana dedicada al gran estado de la Florida no podía dejar de dedicar una breve entrada a la cesta punta, el deporte más rápido del mundo, o "Jai Alai" ("fiesta alegre" en euskera) como lo llaman los miamenses.

Es hoy un negocio en crisis por la irrupción de la lotería estatal y otros sistemas de apuestas más cómodos, pero hace tres décadas era el entretenimiento estrella de Florida, deporte rey del capitalismo desenfrenado, junto con las carreras de caballos y de galgos. Allí solían ir los pelotaris vascos a hacer el dinero que en Euzkadi era inimaginable hacer, a enfrentarse a las estrellas locales, como el legendario Joey Cornblit.

Había frontones en Miami, Tampa, West Palm Beach, Orlando, Daytona Beach, que más que recintos deportivos eran templos del juego, con decenas de ventanillas para apostar, con sus salones para jugar al póker, tragaperras, canódromos. Todavía quedan algunos. Otros están fuera de servicio o se han readaptado a la nueva realidad.

El Jai Alai de Miami fue a mediados de los 80 escenario de un capítulo de la mítica serie 'Miami Vice', que mostraba lo más chic de la Miami de aquella época.

Gingrich acusa a Romney de hacer una "campaña de mentiras"

Esta mañana en Pensacola, el Speaker ha dicho refiriéndose a Romney, "No puedes llegar a ser Presidente si no tienes el coraje de decirle la verdad al pueblo americano."

Suffolk: Romney 47%, Gingrich 27% en Florida

Suffolk University:

Mitt Romney – 47%
Newt Gingrich – 27%
Rick Santourm – 12%
Ron Paul – 9%
Indecisos – 5%

¿Newt '12 = Reagan '76?

Walter Shapiro, desde la experiencia de quien ha cubierto como periodista nueve campañas presidenciales, ve paralelismos entre la campaña de Gingrich y la de Reagan, pero no la del 80, sino la del 76:

Obviously, Gingrich is no Reagan even if Callista is channeling her Inner Nancy. But there are surprising affinities between Newt’s political situation today and the 65-year-old Reagan’s outsider status during his 1976 challenge to Jerry Ford. Declaring his candidacy in November 1975 at the National Press Club in Washington, the former two-term California governor declared in words that have a contemporary ring, “Our nation’s capital has become the seat of a buddy system that functions for its own benefit—increasingly insensitive to the needs of the American worker who supports it in taxes.”

But after losing the New Hampshire primary to Ford by 1,317 votes (in an echo of this year’s Iowa caucuses, the tally was later disputed), Reagan was on the ropes as he (another echo) trailed in the polls leading up to the Florida primary. As Jules Witcover recounts in Marathon, his chronicle of the 1976 campaign, Ford told reporters aboard Air Force One, “Florida is really the key. If we win and win very well in Florida, they ought to know that they can’t win.” Not only did Reagan lose Florida, but he also was walloped by 19 percentage points in Illinois, the state of his birth. After Illinois, according to Witcover, Reagan aides discussed among themselves (without consulting the candidate) whether “to make contact with the Ford people and let them know that Reagan was ready to withdraw gracefully.”

But Reagan, with his campaign $2-million in debt and his plane about to be grounded because of non-payment of bills, found his issue (the Panama Canal), as he pulled off a stunning upset in the North Carolina primary. That victory and follow-up wins in other southern primaries fueled Reagan as he carried his fight against Ford and the GOP establishment to the floor of the Kansas City convention. Something tells me that Gingrich remembered that Reagan story line as he boldly declared during a Saturday press conference that—regardless of the Florida outcome—“I will go all the way to the convention.”

None of this guarantees that political history will repeat itself as either tragedy or farce. But again and again, the largely youthful campaign press corps has sold Gingrich short. Maybe Florida is indeed the end of the line for Gingrich’s frail hopes to be the GOP nominee. But all it takes for Gingrich to prove that he is not yesterday’s man is a GOP primary electorate that remembers yesterday—and the day before.

"Latinos para Newt"

Spot dirigido a los cubano-americanos.