Tras una gira de dos días por el Medio Oeste y un fin de semana de descanso en Camp David, el Presidente Obama ha vuelto a la Rose Garden Strategy, esa que popularizó Gerald Ford en 1976 y que consiste en hablar desde la Casa Blanca para parecer presidencial.
Desde la Sala Este de la Casa Blanca, Obama ha propuesto extender los recortes de impuestos de Bush solo a las familias que ganan menos de 250,000 dólares al año, y dejarlas expirar para los demás.
Los republicanos abogan por extender de forma permanente todas las ventajas fiscales.
lunes, 9 de julio de 2012
Obama recaudó 71 millones en junio
President Barack Obama's re-election campaign announced Monday that it, along with the Democratic National Committee, raised $71 million in June from more than 706,000 donors.
The amount lags far behind the $106 million Mitt Romney and the Republican National Committee raised last month, a number the campaign made official early Monday.
(...) "But we still got beat - and not by a little bit," Ann Marie Habershaw, chief operating officer for Obama for America, said in the email. "If we lose this election, it will be because we didn't close the gap enough when we had the chance."Son 35 millones menos que lo recaudado por Romney. Demasiada diferencia. Es más de lo que recaudó el mes pasado (60 millones) pero menos de lo que recaudó en junio de 2008 (74 millones).
Los malabarismos de Obama en el "cinturón del óxido"
The Washington Examiner:
Obama's bus tour was aimed at the historically Democratic Rust Belt territory. Since the United Steelworkers, United Auto Workers and United Rubber Workers organized the steel, auto and rubber factories in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown and Toledo, this has been prime Democratic territory.
Even in 1984, when Ronald Reagan was winning a 59 to 40 percent landslide, this Rust Belt -- 19 counties in northern and eastern Ohio and 14 counties in western Pennsylvania -- voted 52 to 47 percent for Walter Mondale. It was 12 points more Democratic than the national average.
If these 33 counties had been a single state, they would have cast 19 electoral votes for Mondale, more than doubling the 13 he won from his native Minnesota and the District of Columbia.
In the 1980s, the Rust Belt was still smarting from factory closings and heavy job losses in the recession of the late 1970s. Most of those lost union-wage jobs never came back, and angry laid-off factory workers and their families were unpersuaded by the Reagan campaign's claim that it was "morning in America."
In the years since, the economy of the Rust Belt has changed. The biggest employers in Cleveland and Pittsburgh these days are not steel mills but hospital complexes.
There has been considerable outmigration of young people, and from 1980 to 2010, the population of these 33 counties declined by 7 percent while the national population increased by 36 percent. If they were a single state, they would have 14 electoral votes, down from 19 three decades ago.
The aging electorate of the Rust Belt remains Democratic, and these counties voted 56 to 42 percent for Barack Obama. But that means that they were only 3 percent more Democratic than the national average.
The polling data suggest Obama is not running as strong in the Rust Belt counties this year. The bus tour was undoubtedly aimed at pushing his numbers up.
But he seems to have been left with little to say. No wonder he resorted to making jokes about his family and adding, "People've been commenting: I need to gain some weight."
As if to compensate, he ate some grits -- a staple once you get an hour of so south of Washington, but not so much up north.
But what else could he talk about? Certainly not the Environmental Protection Agency's rules shutting down coal-fired electric plants. Nor his decision blocking the Keystone XL oil pipeline.
He could hail the development of fracking in the region's Marcellus shale natural gas formation in the region, except for the fact that regulators in his administration seem intent on shutting it down.
He could repeat his calls for "investment" in education, but even if you don't regard that as a political payoff to the teachers unions, the dividends are going to be a long time coming in.
And calls for investment in infrastructure may lead people to recall his chuckling admission that there are no shovel-ready projects, thanks to regulatory and legal roadblocks.
The uncomfortable fact is that Obama doesn't have a convincing economic story to tell. The recovery summer promised for 2010 and for 2011 and again for 2012 has yet to arrive.
Obama needs majorities in the Rust Belt counties to carry Ohio and Pennsylvania again. But last week's bus tour shows he's having difficulty in this historically Democratic territory.
Rob Portman y la importancia del condado de Hamilton (Cincy)
Ohio’s economy will no doubt play a major role – the major role – in how Ohioans decide between Romney and Obama this fall.
And the perception of that economy might look quite different depending on where you live.
If you are in southeast Ohio’s Pike County, with the highest unemployment rate at 12.6 percent, it might look very bleak. If you are in western Ohio’s Mercer County, it might look a lot better, with a state low of 4.2 percent unemployment.
Either way, Ohio will play a crucial role in this election.
Kyle Kondik, a northeast Ohio native who is a political analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, wrote an analysis of Ohio’s political map this week that shows that while Ohio’s influence in presidential elections may fade in the future “it looms large in 2012.”
For Obama, Kondik said, northeast Ohio – where the highest concentration of Democrats is – is the key. Nearly six of 10 of Obama’s 2008 votes came from northeast Ohio’s 20 counties in 2008.
“A friend and fellow northeast Ohio native sometimes suggests that the old Western Reserve – a part of northeast Ohio that once was part of Connecticut- should just break away from Ohio and form a new state,’’ Kondik wrote. “That would probably be just fine for northeast Ohioans – and also for Republicans in the rest of the state, because northeast Ohio is the region that allows Democrats to sometimes win presidential elections in the Buckeye State.”
Mack Mariani, an assistant professor of political science at Xavier University, said he tends to doubt that Obama will be able to gin up the kind of enthusiasm he did in those Democratic strongholds four years ago.
“This is not 2008,’’ Mariani said. “You can’t expect President Obama to work up the kind of numbers he did four years ago, when there was real excitement surrounding his candidacy.”
The winning coalition that Obama put together in 2008 included the three big counties that dominate the political map of Ohio – Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton, Kondik said. Those three counties made up 29 percent of the vote; and Obama took 62 percent.
He won by 258,542 votes in Cuyahoga County and 116,223 in Franklin County. Obama’s margin was only 29,537 in Hamilton County.
Hamilton County is the “swingy population center of the otherwise bedrock Republican southwest” and is the key county to watch on election night, Kondik wrote.
“If Obama holds it,” Kondik said, “he’s in a good position to win.”
If Romney turns to Rob Portman, Ohio’s junior senator and a Cincinnati favorite, as his running mate, that may be a very difficult task to pull off – no matter what argument Obama makes on the pocketbook issues Ohioans care about most.Os cuento. Ohio ha sido históricamente un estado complicado para los demócratas. Con el 51% del voto, Obama se convirtió en 2008 en el primer demócrata desde Lyndon Johnson en superar la barrera del 50% en Ohio (Clinton podía decir, "gracias Ross Perot"). Y para superar el 50%, necesitó mejorar los porcentajes de John Kerry en 77 de los 88 condados, mientras McCain empeoraba los porcentajes de Bush en 82 condados, es decir, en casi todo el estado.
La clave para Obama fue una movilización sin precedentes en Cleveland y Columbus, pero su mayor proeza fue llevarse el condado de Hamilton (Cincinnati) por unos 30,000 votos, convirtiéndose en el primer demócrata en 44 años (otra vez desde Lyndon Johnson) que ganaba ese condado. Algo que ocurre una vez en una generación. Cuatro años antes, George W. Bush había ganado Ohio gracias a una victoria de 5 puntos en el condado de Hamilton (después de un rally masivo en el estadio de los Cincinnati Reds de béisbol dos días antes de la elección), y a victorias de más de 30 puntos en los tres condados que rodean a Hamilton y que contienen suburbios de Cincinnati: Butler, Warren y Clermont (en Clermont llegó a superar a Kerry en 41 puntos, 70%-21%). Obama lógicamente perdió esos tres ultraconservadores suburbios de Cincy, pero lo hizo entre 5 y 10 puntos mejor que Kerry.
De Cincinnati y sus suburbios han salido cinco Presidentes republicanos: William Henry Harrison, Ulysses Grant, Rutherford Hayes, Benjamin Harrison y William Howard Taft (si sumamos a Garfield, McKinley y Harding, que no eran de Cincy, Ohio ha dado ocho Presidentes, todos republicanos... bueno, uno whig, en realidad). Ninguna otra ciudad del país puede presumir de algo así. La ciudad ha ganado 22 premios anuales a la responsabilidad fiscal por sus políticas presupuestarias. En su área metropolitana es donde el GOP ha de empezar a reconstruir cualquier esperanza de devolver Ohio a su realidad anterior a 2008.
Y el caso es que Rob Portman es de Cincinnati, un producto de su colegio de abogados, fábrica de Presidentes. En su elección para el Senado en 2010 se llevó el condado de Hamilton por 20 puntos. Una elección presidencial es otra historia, pero su base electoral está ahí, en ese punto tan especial que une Medio Oeste, Sur y Este a través del río Ohio. ¿Podrá Romney resistir la tentación de (casi) meter Ohio en su saco este verano con una sola decisión?
PostData: de regalo, os dejo un rally de Reagan en Cincinnati en 1984. El tío se llevó el condado de Hamilton por cerca de 30 puntos. Eso ya es pasarse.
Cantidad exacta recaudada por Romney en junio: 106.1 millones
Today, Romney for President, Romney Victory, and the Republican National Committee announced fundraising totals of $106.1 million in June. The campaign and RNC have approximately $160 million cash on hand.
(...) FAST FACTS About Romney For President, Romney Victory, and RNC Fundraising:
· $106.1 Million Raised In June· 94% Of All Donations Received In June Were $250 Or Less· $22.3 Million Raised By Donations Under $250 In June· 536,729 Donations Received Under $250 In June· Approximately $160 Million Cash On Hand· Contributions Received From All 50 States And Washington, D.C.
Boston prepara los detalles para el anuncio del VP; falta por decidir cuándo se hará
The Washington Post:
With the prospective vice presidential candidates fanning out as campaign-trail surrogates, Romney and his closest counselors have entered the final stages of selecting the ultimate surrogate — a running mate.
There are seven weeks remaining until the Republican National Convention in Tampa, and Romney has a few important strategic decisions to make before then: not only who to name as a vice presidential nominee, but also when and how to do so.
Will Romney follow the precedent of both parties in 2008 by waiting until a few days before the start of his convention to announce his pick? Or will he elect to name a running mate sooner to effectively double the Republicans’ ability to raise money and campaign against an incumbent president and vice president?
And if Romney goes the early route, will he make the announcement over the next 2 1 / 2 weeks before he departs for Europe to begin a foreign trip? Or will he wait until he returns from overseas in early August, when the campaign will be competing against the London Olympics for media attention?
Romney campaign officials would not comment on the confidential vice presidential selection process but said nothing has been determined.
“No decisions have been made about decisions,” one adviser said.
When Romney was asked by CBS News last week when he might announce his choice, he said, “I can’t tell you that. I have an idea in mind, but that’s something I’m keeping close with my team.”
(...) At Romney headquarters in Boston, top staffers are readying for an announcement. A senior staff for the eventual nominee is beginning to be assembled, while the digital team is planning a swift rollout designed to maximize engagement and fundraising from supporters online. The goal, advisers said, is to have an infrastructure ready once Romney makes the decision.
As they eye the calendar, Romney’s advisers said they are weighing the pros and cons of timing.
Steve Duprey, who traveled in 2008 with Republican nominee John McCain as a senior adviser, said the Romney campaign would be smart to name a running mate soon — in part, he said, because the Democrats already are in “full-time campaign mode.”
“The drawbacks are you lose the surprise and excitement of the convention,” Duprey said. “Big deal. Who cares? Surprise is overrated. This is an election about competence and reviving our economy, and I think it shows seriousness of purpose if you pick your person earlier and you have them out on the road.”
Iowa: grandes expectativas, grandes decepciones
The Des Moines Register:
Last week, The Des Moines Register interviewed 23 Republican and independent Iowa Poll respondents who helped carry Obama in the first-in-the-nation caucuses and general election in Iowa in 2008. Eighteen of them said they definitely would not vote for Obama this year.Leyendo esto, no es de extrañar que Obama tenga previsto volver mañana a Iowa, por segunda vez en el último mes y por cuarta vez en lo que va de año.
One explanation for their dearth of enthusiasm can be summed up by the news on the first Friday morning of each month: the unemployment report. Each lackluster economic report, like the one two days ago that pinpointed the jobless rate unchanged at 8.2 percent, reinforces the sense among Iowans that the country is on the wrong track.
But each former Obama voter interviewed by the Register offered a different take on what bugs them.
Smith, the 51-year-old small business owner from Clive, explained her disappointment this way: She was drawn to Obama’s message that “we’re not red states, we’re not blue states, we’re the United States." But now the nation seems even more divided, she said.
The federal debt deeply concerns Smith, who re-registered as a Republican in 2010. Smith, who works in the advertising industry, said she and her husband “cut out all the extras” in 2008 during the recession. Thirteen workers dwindled to seven today, and her husband does the cleaning. The family’s lake home seemed like an expense beyond their means, so they sold it.
“We as a country need to finally learn the lesson that we don’t have the money,” she said.
The day last month when the U.S. Supreme Court made its ruling to uphold the controversial federal health care law, Smith made her first contribution to Romney: $100.
Young people lifted Obama onto their shoulders four years ago, but with unemployment among recent college graduates at historic highs, some said they’re hanging up on him now.
At age 16, Des Moines student Megan La Suer witnessed the hubbub of the 2008 Democratic caucuses with her parents, both Obama backers. “People were going crazy,” she said. “Everybody was really excited.”
La Suer was too young to vote in November 2008 or she would have cast a ballot for Obama, she said. But after studying health care and economics at the University of Iowa, she came to her own conclusions about the federal budget and economic policy.
“The big thing is I want to have a job when I graduate,” said La Suer, now 20. “Obama has promised that, and I don’t think we’ve seen the results that he’s promised.”
This summer, La Suer co-founded Students for Mitt Romney.
Some of Obama’s Iowa support has leached to Ron Paul. Disabled Guthrie Center resident Leo Kenzie, 65, is an independent voter who caucused for Obama four years ago. He now backs Paul for president.
“Obama did the typical political thing — he said a bunch of things before he got elected, but he hasn’t come through with it,” Kenzie said.
It’s a common theme among Obama defectors. Four years ago, Iowans hung on his every word. Headlines reflected the gushiness people felt for this new leader, and tears streamed the night he won.
Pollster J. Ann Selzer said Iowans expected an abundance of hope and change, “but anyone who steps into that much enthusiasm is bound to fail. We call it ‘anticipointment.’ ”
Gallup: igualdad en los swing states
Un empate técnico en los 12 estados competitivos en este punto de la campaña puede ser motivo de preocupación para Obama porque 1) en la lista de 12 estados, Gallup ha incluido algunos estados muy inclinados en los últimos años hacia los demócratas como Michigan, New Mexico y Wisconsin, y no ha incluido, sin embargo, estados inclinados hacia los republicanos como Indiana, Arizona o Missouri, y 2) Obama es quien está apostando fuerte por una campaña temprana de anuncios (en Ohio ha gastado 22 millones ya, Romney 6; en Virginia 11 millones, Romney 3; en Iowa 8-3; en Florida Obama ha gastado 15 millones más, y así en todos los estados).In a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of swing states, an overwhelming majority of voters remember seeing campaign ads over the past month; most voters in other states say they haven't. In the battlegrounds, one in 12 say the commercials have changed their minds about President Obama or Republican Mitt Romney — a difference on the margins, but one that could prove crucial in a close race.At this point, Obama is the clear winner in the ad wars. Among swing-state voters who say the ads have changed their minds about a candidate, rather than just confirmed what they already thought, 76% now support the president, vs. 16% favoring Romney.(...) Obama and his allies have outspent Romney's side on ads so far by almost a third. Although the TV spots didn't start earlier than in recent elections, there have been more than ever before — including a negative flood from the new breed of super PACs — and they are continuing without the traditional summertime letup.In the 12 battleground states, the race is all but tied. Obama leads Romney 47%-45% among 1,200 registered voters in the poll June 22-29 — a tick closer than Obama's 48%-44% lead among 2,404 voters in the rest of the USA over the same period.
Los anuncios sí están consiguiendo generar algunas dudas sobre Romney, un candidato todavía desconocido para muchos votantes. Pero eso no parece que vaya unido a un cambio en las opiniones sobre Obama, al que los votantes ya conocen demasiado bien.
Otro motivo de inquietud para el Presidente debe ser la ya muy comentada brecha en el entusiasmo:
Swing-state voters are a bit more enthusiastic about voting this year than those living elsewhere, perhaps reflecting the attention they're given in TV ads and candidate visits. Nearly half of those in battleground states are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for president this year. Just under three in 10 aren't keen about it.
In the battlegrounds, the most enthusiastic voters outnumber the least enthusiastic ones by 17 percentage points. In the non-battlegrounds, the difference is 12 points.The USA TODAY Poll shows that Republicans, who lagged in enthusiasm in the last swing states survey, have gained an edge now. That may reflect growing comfort with Romney becoming the nominee now that the GOP primaries are over. Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 30% say they are extremely enthusiastic about voting, up 5 points from the spring.Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 23% are extremely enthusiastic, a 3-point dip from the last survey.
domingo, 8 de julio de 2012
Romney espera recaudar 3 millones hoy en los Hamptons
Los Hamptons es una exclusiva zona de Long Island donde la jet set neoyorkina (potentados de Wall Street, clases nobles, artistas y otras celebridades) suele ir a descansar los fines de semana y los veranos. Desde los tiempos de Clinton ha sido una gran fuente de dólares para los demócratas, pero este año parece que lo es más para Romney.
Mr. Romney is expected to pull in $3 million from an event at the Creeks, the estate of Ronald O. Perelman, the billionaire financier and Revlon chairman, where tickets range from $5,000 for lunch to $25,000 for a V.I.P. photo reception. Another will be held at the home of Clifford M. Sobel, an ambassador to Brazil under President George W. Bush, and a final dinner will take place at the Southampton estate of the billionaire industrialist David H. Koch, where the going rate for entry is $75,000 a couple and $50,000 a person.Mr. Romney’s campaign seeks secrecy when it comes to its fund-raising events, but organizers suggested that these would not be the showstoppers of the Democratic events of yore. As one member of his finance team put it, “There’s enough interest in stopping Obama that you don’t need to hire entertainment and celebrity chefs.” Besides, the real estate should be entertainment enough.At Mr. Koch’s estate, the guests will be treated to one-of-a-kind scenery as they wait for face time with a possible president. Tucked into the Southampton dunes, Mr. Koch’s home is valued at about $18 million by the real estate Web site Zillow, which reports that it has seven bedrooms and nine bathrooms. Its backyard is the sea.But the jewel of the day is Mr. Perelman’s. With 9 fireplaces, 40 rooms and an expansive wine cellar, his estate makes the Koch spread look modest by comparison. Sitting on 57 acres, it was built for the painter Albert Herter in 1899, and when it last went up for sale in 1991 (for $25 million), The New York Times described it as “the largest and most spectacular estate in the Village of East Hampton, with more than a mile of frontage on Georgica Pond and a view of the Atlantic Ocean beyond.” That article also said that an American Conifer Society Bulletin — for tree enthusiasts — had called its grounds “the eighth wonder of the horticultural world” and “the most outstanding private conifer collection in the United States, a living work of art.”(...) And among the longtime conservative stalwarts listed as hosts of the Sunday events (Mr. Koch, Lewis M. Eisenberg, Wayne L. Berman, Woody Johnson) are others, most hailing from finance, who, according to campaign filings, have previously donated to Mr. Kerry, the Clintons and, in one case, John Edwards.“The Republicans are super-energized out here,” said Andrew Sabin, the precious-metals magnate and a host of the event at Mr. Perelman’s house, who cited the weekend’s $3 million figure. “And they’re getting a lot of interest from Democrats. But a lot of Democrats are afraid to tell you where they are.”Neither campaign would comment for this article. And neither would Mr. Perelman — who stayed an independent even as he became a Clinton booster — agree to an interview. But in a statement, he said: “Mr. Romney is a longtime good friend. I was asked if I would open my home and I am happy to do so. I think the governor will continue to be an effective powerful leader.”
Chicago sube el tono dramático de sus ruesgos a los donantes
Inmediatamente después de conocerse que Romney recaudó más de 100 millones en junio, Jim Messina, campaign manager de Obama, envió un e-mail pidiendo más esfuerzo a los donantes. El tono alarmista del e-mail refleja una preocupación real pero también forma parte de la estrategia para concienciar a los donantes:
President Barack Obama says he's not worried about Mitt Romney's prodigious fundraising. But his campaign sounded the alarm Friday about the Republican standard-bearer's eye-popping $100 million haul in June and warned Democrats to open their wallets--before it's too late.También el Vicepresidente Joe Biden envió un mensaje similar a los donantes:
"If we don't take this seriously now, we risk finding ourselves at a point where there is too much ground to make up," Obama campaign manager Jim Messina said in an email request for cash. Subject line: "URGENT."
"Romney and the Republicans announced yesterday that they brought in more than $100 million in June. For context, that's about what we raised in April and May combined," Messina wrote.
"We're still tallying our own numbers, but this means their gap is getting wider, and if it continues at this pace, it could cost us the election," he said, asking for immediate donations that he promised "can start reversing this trend in just a few hours."
Messina name-checked the Koch brothers, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, and Karl Rove—all bogeymen to liberals.
¿Casting de vicepresidenciables? (Parte II)
Tim Pawlenty y Bobby Jindal hicieron campaña por Romney el viernes en Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, coincidiendo con la presencia de Obama en la ciudad.
Portman visita NH pero niega haberse reunido con Romney
Potential vice presidential pick Rob Portman told reporters on Saturday that he has no plans to meet with presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney, even though the two are spending time in the same state.
Speculation has been heavy about the prospect of Romney using his vacation in Wolfeboro, N.H., as a chance to meet with those on his VP short list, and news of the Ohio senator visiting the Granite State for a fundraiser only fanned the rumor flames. But Portman says he won't be dipping his toes into Lake Winnipesaukee."Some of you, I know, have been asking, you know, whether I've been to Wolfeboro," Portman told members of the press. "The answer is no. However, I have been on four college campuses in the last 48 hours."The trip, Portman said, is about helping his youngest pick a school. But even if his visit here does not involve a sit down with the man who could dub him the next vice presidential nominee, his swing through New England is not only about his daughter's higher education choices.Portman spoke to media before attending a Saturday fundraiser for the New Hampshire GOP. On Monday he'll fundraise in Boston for Romney's Victory Fund. And between them, he'll head to Maine to meet with someone who knows a bit about the vice presidency -- former President George H.W. Bush.
sábado, 7 de julio de 2012
El GOP de Iowa consolida en junio su ventaja en votantes registrados
Des Moines Register:
Republicans increased their lead over Democrats in Iowa voter registrations last month to more than 21,000.Es un vuelco importante respecto a 2008. Hace cuatro años, cuando Obama se llevó el estado por unos 145,000 votos de ventaja sobre McCain, los demócratas superaban a los republicanos en 106,000 votantes registrados. Hace ocho años, cuando Iowa apoyó la reelección de Bush por unos 10,000 votos, los republicanos superaban a los demócratas en 4,400 votantes registrados.
(...) 619,452 Iowa voters are now registered Republican, compared to 598,074 Democrats. Both parties, however, are outnumbered by No Party voters, at 655,457.
Democrats held a lead in registrations for several years beginning in mid-2006, but fell behind Republicans earlier this spring.
Iowa es un estado históricamente demócrata (el hogar de Henry Wallace), pero en 2004 ya dio síntomas alentadores para los republicanos: con una victoria nacional de dos puntos y medio, Bush se llevó el estado; en cambio, en 1988, su padre no fue capaz de ganar el estado a pesar de ganar a nivel nacional por cerca de ocho puntos. Es un estado muy blanco.
"The Problem"
Chicago lanza un nuevo anuncio anti-Romney.
GOBERNADOR ROMNEY (en un debate de las primarias): "A los chinos les entra la risa cada vez que se llevan nuestros empleos y mucho de nuestro futuro. Y no estoy dispuesto a dejar que eso ocurra."
NARRADOR: "Hizo una fortuna dejando que ocurriera. Documentos publicados recientemente muestran que las firmas de Mitt Romney fueron pioneras ayudando a compañías a subcontratar manufactura a otros países, incluyendo China. Alardeando que eran una ventanilla única para sus requisitos de subcontratación. Mitt Romney no es la solución. Es el problema."
Llama la atención la timidez de Boston a la hora de responder a estos ataques, y lo poco que están gastando hasta ahora en anuncios en comparación con Obama. Dicen que no quieren contribuir a desviar la atención hacia asuntos secundarios, y quieren someter a Obama a un auténtico bombardeo en los 60 últimos días de la campaña porque los anuncios de TV de otoño son los que ganan elecciones. Creen que Obama está mojando su pólvora, gastando balas antes de tiempo. Pero se están arriesgando a que Obama defina en términos muy negativos a un Romney todavía indefinido, que es lo que les ocurrió a Kerry y Dole. Aunque Romney no tendrá límites a la hora de gastar dólares en otoño, al no acogerse a la financiación pública, como sí hicieron Dole y Kerry.
GOBERNADOR ROMNEY (en un debate de las primarias): "A los chinos les entra la risa cada vez que se llevan nuestros empleos y mucho de nuestro futuro. Y no estoy dispuesto a dejar que eso ocurra."
NARRADOR: "Hizo una fortuna dejando que ocurriera. Documentos publicados recientemente muestran que las firmas de Mitt Romney fueron pioneras ayudando a compañías a subcontratar manufactura a otros países, incluyendo China. Alardeando que eran una ventanilla única para sus requisitos de subcontratación. Mitt Romney no es la solución. Es el problema."
Llama la atención la timidez de Boston a la hora de responder a estos ataques, y lo poco que están gastando hasta ahora en anuncios en comparación con Obama. Dicen que no quieren contribuir a desviar la atención hacia asuntos secundarios, y quieren someter a Obama a un auténtico bombardeo en los 60 últimos días de la campaña porque los anuncios de TV de otoño son los que ganan elecciones. Creen que Obama está mojando su pólvora, gastando balas antes de tiempo. Pero se están arriesgando a que Obama defina en términos muy negativos a un Romney todavía indefinido, que es lo que les ocurrió a Kerry y Dole. Aunque Romney no tendrá límites a la hora de gastar dólares en otoño, al no acogerse a la financiación pública, como sí hicieron Dole y Kerry.
Los datos de empleo se parecen más a 1992 que a 2004
Battleground Watch:
There have been plenty of articles talking about how the Obama campaign is hoping for a repeat of 2004 (close but successful re- election in a recovering economy) but fears a repeat of 1992 (referendum on the incumbent over too slow of recovery). Today’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics paints a very gloomy jobs picture in an all-too-slow recovery.
(...) Within the context of Presidential politics, it is curious to see where Obama rates within the two campaigns this cycle has been compared to: 1992 and 2004.
Any one data point, good or bad, can be dismissed as an anomaly but monthly averages and trends tell a much more fair story. The average monthly jobs created this past quarter was 75,000/month. In 1992, the average in the second quarter was 114,000 while the average in the second quarter of 2004 was 213,000.
At the same juncture in each of the comparative election cycles President Obama is dramatically underperforming his peers. What is more troubling for the President is the trend line. Looking at a chart of his year-to-date monthly jobs reports, we see the figures converging downward with 1992 rather than steadily improving (like 2004) or accelerating upward (like 1984).
From this juncture through the election day in 1992 the monthly jobs report averaged 106,000 jobs gained. The great difference between 1992 and today is the Bush 41 economy was steadily improving from weak and negative jobs reports in the first quarter while the Obama economy is steadily declining from reasonable and comparatively better jobs figures in the first quarter. Also, Bush 41′s first quarter GDP was 4.5% in a year of 3.4% GDP growth. President Obama’s first quarter GDP was 1.9%, his second quarter GDP is expected closer to 1.5% and the full-year GDP is expected remain below 2.0%.
The Obama campaign would like to maintain the argument that this election is more similar to 2004 than 1992, but to do so would be to dismiss a great many things. First and foremost, the 2004 election was about national security (remember John Kerry’s convention? Hint: Obama was there). There was little to no discussion about the economy (honestly, does anyone remember a meaningful economic dispute during that campaign?).
Add to the fact that, as shown above, the 2004 jobs picture was dramatically better than the 2012 malaise and you see the Obama hope for a 2004 repeat fades quickly. For the remainder of 2004, the monthly jobs report averaged 169,000 jobs gained. That level of job growth is still weak, mind you, but far surpasses reasonable expectations for the Obama economy.
But jobs aren’t the only difference. In addition to jobs, GDP in the first quarter of 2004 was 2.7% in a year where annual GDP was 3.5%. As discussed above, Obama’s 2012 GDP almost certainly will not exceed 2.0%.
Following all the recent jobs report, the weak manufacturing report earlier this week signalling domestic economic contraction, and the global economic slowdown, a rapid pick-up in jobs into the election driving a repeat of the 2004 election is simply not in the cards. Unfortunately for the campaign in Chicago, more and more of the economy and re-election prospects for President Obama are looking like a repeat of 1992.
viernes, 6 de julio de 2012
Romney: los datos de empleo son una patada en las tripas para la clase media
El candidato ha interrumpido sus vacaciones para comentar los datos de desempleo en una tienda de Wolfeboro, New Hampshire.
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