Karen Hughes: examinar a un vicepresidenciable es como hacerle una colonoscopia

Karen Hughes, que hace doce años ayudó a George W. Bush a buscar running-mate, describió así el proceso ayer en NBC:

"Es el equivalente político a una colonoscopia. Están examinando cada pulgada de la vida y el pasado de cada candidato. Y preferirían poder hacerlo lejos de los focos de la publicidad... Buscan a alguien que aporte algo que sirva para sumar, generalmente no solo a tu habilidad para hacer campaña, sino de manera más importante a tu habilidad para gobernar efectivamente una vez que eres elegido Presidente."

Condoleezza Rice se robó el show en el cónclave de Utah

ABC News:

Many of those same attendees said the star speaker of the weekend was former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who received and a standing ovation. Ambassador Charles Cobb, who served as ambassador to Iceland from 1989 to 1992, said Rice was "spectacular" and described her as a "very bright, sophisticated, articulate lady."

Husband-and-wife donors from Los Angeles who did not want to be identified said Rice's message was one of "America needing to take charge."

"We can't stand by and let things happen," the wife said. "If we do, someone else will take that leadership role."

They both described her address as an "impassioned plea" for the country to "stand up and take charge."

Donor Kent Lucken, an international banker in Boston who moved back to his home state of Iowa for six weeks before the caucuses to help Romney, said "she rocked it."

Attendees also heard from Sen. John McCain, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and many other GOP notables.

(...) Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, South Dakota Sen. John Thune, and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan were all on hand.

Tour por el cuartel general de Team Obama en Chicago

Las cámaras de C-SPAN nos acercan al cuartel general de la campaña de reelección del Presidente en el One Prudential Plaza, en el downtown de Chicago.

(click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

C-SPAN entrevista a David Axelrod

El estratega jefe de Team Obama comenta la estrategia de la campaña.

(click en la imagen para ver el video en otra ventana)

No hagan apuestas sobre quién será el VP de Romney

Es un consejo de Bob Schieffer, que ha cubierto muchas campañas.

Boston prepara un ejército de voluntarios mormones

Financial Times:

Wally Harkness is something of a walking billboard for Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential hopeful. Whenever he is on the road – which, as a sales manager for a Utah energy company, is often – he puts on his Romney T-shirt and spreads the Romney word.

“Wherever I am – Oklahoma, Texas, Arizona – I wear my Romney T-shirt,” says Mr Harkness, a 48-year-old father of five from Orem, just south of Salt Lake City.

“I’m not the least bit shy about walking around in my shirt and answering questions. Just the other day in Denver airport, I was talking to some students and got their minds thinking about the election.”

While at home in Utah, Mr Harkness spends evenings and Saturday mornings at Mr Romney’s state headquarters in a deserted shopping complex in Orem, making calls into battleground states as far afield as Michigan and Iowa.

Mr Harkness’ enthusiasm is not unusual in Utah, where Mr Romney enjoys a 90 per cent approval rating. Though the state is solidly Republican, part of the special zeal or Mr Romney here is due to the fact that he shares a religion – Mormonism – with as many as 70 per cent of the state’s residents.

The Romney campaign is planning to harness this energy by deploying an army of Utah supporters, like Mr Harkness, to states where the presidential race is close, such as neighbouring Nevada and Colorado. Such efforts could be crucial in battleground states that will decide the election.

Next week, the state’s Republican National Committee will send its first busloads of members – as many as 180 – to the Romney campaign “victory centre” in Mesquite, Nevada, to talk about their ground-game for winning the state.

In addition to hitting the neighbouring states, the Romney campaign and the RNC are also planning to use the energised Utahns to put “boots on the ground” further afield in places such as California and Idaho too.

“This is going to be so exciting,” says Thomas Wright, the ebullient chairman of the state’s Republican National Committee. “We are going to be able to take all these Utahns, who are so passionate about Mitt Romney, to the battleground states to our west and to our east.”

Much has been made of Barack Obama’s extensive grassroots network that helped propel him to the presidency in 2008, either by donating small sums online or getting out to spread his message of hope and change. But Mr Romney’s Mormon army could act as a counterweight to the president’s ground game in close races.

The missionary work that is at the heart of the Mormon religion – 1m have left home for two years to convert others to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints – could be good preparation for a Romney door-knocking and phone-calling outreach effort, given the long hours and rejection that such endeavours often entail.

(...) In Mr Romney’s Orem campaign headquarters, rows of computers and telephones sit in grey cubicles ready for volunteers like Mr Harkness. Above each is a picture of Mr Romney working the phones, with the caption “calls = votes”.

Chicago confía en tener ventaja en la calle

The Wall Street Journal:

Before heading out to register voters, a group of Obama campaign volunteers gets a pep talk and some last minute advice.

“Ask everybody,’’ a young aide tells them on a recent weekend.

Everybody means everybody.

Should they meet someone who can’t vote due to a felony conviction, they’re told to give contact information for a community organizing group that works to get voting rights restored.

“We’re going to do this one by and one,’’ says the aide.

Once again, the Obama high command is making a big bet on their ground operation. The aim is to flood the zone: open up offices in battleground states, call undecided voters, and swarm the shopping malls to register as many people as possible. In this way, Democrats hope to neutralize the Republican super PAC advantage by out-registering and out-working the GOP on the streets.

“We believe we have an absolute advantage on the ground,’’ Obama campaign manager Jim Messina said in an interview.

But Republicans believe the Obama ground game isn’t the fearsome force it used to be. They point to electoral setbacks that Democrats have endured in the years since team Obama built its grassroots network.

Wisconsin, for one.

Sean Spicer, communications director for the Republican National Committee, said the Wisconsin recall should have been an easy “layup’’ for Democrats given that the party had been busing in “every hippie liberal and union thug’’ to help oust Scott Walker, a Republican. Mr. Walker won handily.

“What’s the proof they can mobilize?’’ Mr. Spicer said.

Voter-registration figures show some softness on the Democratic side, suggesting the Obama ground game has work to do.

Third Way, a centrist think tank, has been studying registration trends in eight battleground states. The group released a report in May showing that since 2008, independent registration has been rising. Meantime, Republican registration has dropped by 157,000 in these states; Democratic registration by 841,000. Neither party’s brand has been faring all that well.

Vicepresidenciables en los talk shows domingueros

Marco Rubio en Meet The Press (NBC): "No discutiré más sobre el proceso (de selección) vicepresidencial. Hace dos meses decidí no discutirlo más. Creo que otras personas de las que se ha especulado están haciendo sabiamente exáctamente lo mismo... Basándome en su historial de toda al vida de tomar buenas decisiones, confío en que Mitt Romney va a hacer una gran selección para Vicepresidente."

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Tim Pawlenty ha dicho en Face The Nation (CBS): "Creo que puedo servir mejor al Gobernador Romney de otras maneras, especialmente como voluntario y portavoz en lugares a los que no puede ir. He animado a la gente de la campaña a que miren a otros candidatos."

Aunque matiza: "Cualquiera al que le pidieran servir en una posición como esa, estaría honrado de que se lo pidieran."

16: ¿está Jeb Bush posicionándose para una candidatura presidencial?

Reuters:

Ever since Jeb Bush left the Florida governor's mansion in 2007 with favorable ratings after two terms, speculation has swirled about his political future.

(...) When he said he supported a modest tax increase along with spending cuts to help reduce the federal debt, Bush joked, "This will prove I'm not running for anything." Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the presumed Republican presidential nominee, and the party leadership oppose any and all tax hikes.

Comments like these have only fueled speculation that Bush is positioning himself to run for president - in 2016. According to this scenario, his breaking with the party on issues such as taxes is meant to stake out a platform that will move it back to the moderate center and away from more divisive social issues, while also seeking more common ground on issues such as education and immigration.

The best argument for doing that, of course, would be if Romney, running on more conservative positions, fails to unseat President Barack Obama this year.

"Jeb Bush is following a pattern we see with ambitious presidential candidates," said Jamie Chandler, a political scientist at Hunter College, New York. "Just like Romney did in 2004, he's raising his public profile and increasing his speech activity now for a potential run in four years."

If Romney wins, Bush would be a likely cabinet candidate, perhaps as education secretary, said Chandler. But any presidential ambitions would have to wait until 2020. By then he would be almost 68, just a year younger than Reagan in 1990, the oldest U.S. president to be sworn into office.

Not everyone is convinced Bush has such a game plan. Some of the people who know him best say he is not that calculating. They say he is speaking out because he is deeply loyal to the Republican Party and worried about the issues he holds dear.

"It's more about helping the cause than helping himself. He will always call it the way he sees it," said Jorge Arrizurietta, a top Republican fundraiser in Miami and a former adviser to Jeb Bush. "I can't tell you that he's got a master plan, but there is a broad consensus in the party that Jeb should stay involved and consider a run at the right moment."

(...) Bush's conservative record in government gives him more "flexibility" to speak freely, said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "He's got a record that's appealed to the base. That overrides any apostasy on the campaign trail."

Bush secured his bona fides with social conservatives in 2003 with his controversial order to reinsert the feeding tube of Terri Schiavo, a brain-injured woman who had been in a coma for 15 years. The family was divided over whether to keep her alive, but right-to-life activists pushed the matter all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Bush made his biggest mark as governor in education policy, securing a number of reforms with a conservative slant. He signed a measure giving public schools an annual grade based on student test scores and rewarded them with state funds accordingly.

He encouraged charter schools, which are publicly funded but typically run by private corporations, and instituted a statewide voucher program - later struck down by the state Supreme Court - that let hundreds of students in failing public schools enroll in private and religious schools at taxpayer expense.

The state has posted strong growth in reading and math scores, according to recent federal data, with most of the gains coming during the Bush administration.

(...) "Jeb wants to be a leader on the big issues of the day ... Whether he's influencing the 2012 debate or the 2016 debate, or even 2020, that's not the question," said Chuck Cobb, a close friend of the Bush family and former undersecretary of commerce in the Reagan administration. "Does Jeb want to be a leader? Yes. Does Jeb have to be the leader of the United States to do that? I think not."

(...) His education work gives Bush a platform to proselytize fellow Republican lawmakers and governors. He has been to a dozen states over the past 15 months to promote the "Florida formula," in the process establishing a network that would serve him well in a national campaign.

Bush "has turned into a kind of Johnny Appleseed of education reform, carrying ideas around the country and planting them wherever he can," said Chester Finn Jr., an education policy analyst and president of the Thomas B. Fordham Institute, an education think tank in Washington.

One of those ideas, which resonates with the party base, is to aggressively promote the idea that teachers unions are impediments to reform.

Education could be a way for Bush to build political coalitions, since the cause of improving America's schools crosses party lines.

(...) Even though they have their differences, Bush has earned the respect of the Tea Party. "Jeb Bush is a very solid conservative and a likable guy. Many people like me wish he was president," says Florida Tea Party Chairman Everett Wilkinson, a Palm Beach County political consultant.

Some Democrats also admit to a sneaking regard for him. "I think he is the most dangerous Republican candidate," says Freddy Balsera, a public relations consultant in Miami and Hispanic adviser to the Obama campaign. "He's a real conservative who understands Latino voters better than even many Latino elected officials," he added.

Hispanic voters were deeply opposed to the war in Iraq and blame George W. Bush for the recession. But by 2016 that may be less relevant.

Certainly, Jeb's family remains proud of the Bush brand. His granddaughter, born last year, was named Georgia H.W. Bush.

"I know that there's Bush fatigue right now, but I think Jeb can overcome that," says Ros-Lehtinen. "I hope that he runs for president. I think that's where he belongs."

"RomneyWorld" se reúne en las montañas de Utah (fotos)

(click para ver las fotos en grande)

"RomneyWorld" se reúne en las montañas de Utah

The New York Times:

They schmoozed with Mitt Romney at a barbecue cookout at the Olympic Park, pressing him on labor regulations and the threat of a nuclear Iran as downhill skiers performed midair flips behind them.

They rubbed elbows with Beth Myers, who is running Mr. Romney’s vice-presidential search, in the packed lobby bar of the Chateaux at Silver Lake, over $15 glasses of Scotch.

And they mingled with Mr. Romney’s wife, Ann, during an intimate “Women for Romney victory tea,” held on an umbrella-shaded patio in this resort town.

The Romney campaign, whose fund-raising prowess has defied assumptions about President Obama’s financial advantages, offered wealthy donors and bundlers an extraordinary level of access to the candidate, his staff members, advisers and family this weekend at a three-day retreat that even seasoned political contributors said dwarfed previous presidential powwows.

Mr. Romney’s political operation seemed to all but shut down and relocate to the mountains of Utah. At least 15 senior campaign figures flew in for what blue-blazered guests from Texas, North Carolina and New York dubbed Republicanpalooza, delivering briefings on the effectiveness of Mr. Romney’s and Mr. Obama’s commercials and spinning them through the latest polling data, which they said showed the race as a dead heat.

(...) The Romney campaign offered donors who gave $50,000 or raised $100,000 intimate seminars and discussions featuring leading Republican lights, past and present: Karl Rove, Condoleezza Rice, James Baker III, John McCain and Jeb Bush, whose presence represented a symbolic embrace of a candidate who struggled to win over the disparate elements of his party in the bruising primary.

“Everyone is coming here to rally around the Romney flagpole,” said Cheryl Halpern, a filmmaker who attended with her husband, Fred, a real estate developer from New Jersey. The pair went to a special Sabbath dinner at the retreat featuring kosher fare.

At times, the scene here at a compound of high-altitude ski lodges seemed like an imitation Republican National Convention. In the span of a few moments, William Kristol, the editor of The Weekly Standard, greeted Michael Chertoff, George. W. Bush’s secretary of homeland security, at an outdoor cafe as Mary Matalin, the conservative commentator, whizzed by in an extended-cab golf cart and Mr. Romney’s brother, Scott, approached in a pair of shiny black pants from Prada. (Guests noted that Scott Romney’s current and ex-wives were in attendance.)

Brenda LaGrange Johnson, a former United States ambassador to Jamaica who previously attended donor retreats held by President George W. Bush in Texas, said there was no comparison with Mr. Romney’s event here. “This is much more thorough,” she said. “This is much more extensive.”

Donors were unabashed about their desire to have face time with those who might constitute the brain trust in a Romney White House. David A. Wish, a Florida doctor and Romney fund-raiser, said that in order to sell the candidate to potential contributors, “we need one-on-one time with the people who make decisions.”

Soon after, Mr. Wish cornered Eric Fehrnstrom, a senior adviser, for a brief chat.

(...) The Romney campaign took pains to personalize the experience. Arriving guests received beige Vineyard Vines canvas bags embroidered with the campaign slogan “Believe in America.” Inside was a Romney-branded navy blue baseball cap and pins that designated donation levels. The campaign’s fund-raising chief, Spencer Zwick, signed 450 welcoming letters.

Donors attended policy discussions and round tables (like “Innovation in America” co-hosted by Ken Langone, a founder of Home Depot) that were tailored to their interests, both political and financial. Representative Connie Mack of Florida spoke at a session on energy policy. Ms. Matalin talked about the media, humorously recalling her conversation with Vice President Dick Cheney after he accidentally shot a friend on a hunting trip. And Ms. Rice addressed the need for renewed American leadership around the world, in a speech several guests called “electrifying.”

(...) Mr. Romney mixed with guests at an elaborate dinner at the foot of steep ski jumps and a winding bobsled course used in the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics. Over barbecued beef, chicken and salmon, guests whispered advice on swing states and asked him about his chances against Mr. Obama, whose name was employed in an acronym by several attendees — “A.B.O.,” anybody but Obama.

Mr. Baker, the secretary of state under the first President George Bush, said the retreat reminded him of a conference that Gerald Ford held in Vail, Colo., as he laid the groundwork for his campaign against Jimmy Carter in 1976.

“That’s what I see going on here,” Mr. Baker said in an interview. “We are going to have a different result. This year we are going to win.”

On Thursday night, Mr. Rove held court on a hotel balcony with about a half-dozen financial executives, who peppered him with questions about Mr. Romney’s chances.

(...) After Mr. Rove walked away, the gaggle of men excitedly recounted the conversation, reveling in their access.

“That’s the price of admission right there,” one donor said to another. “Your six minutes with Rove.”

The Washington Post:

If Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign were listed on the stock market, then those populating Utah’s luxurious Deer Valley resort this weekend were its biggest shareholders. They showed off silver lapel pins signifying their elite status, carried around custom Vineyard Vines canvas totes and exuded collective amazement after watching Olympic ski jumpers do flips into a giant swimming pool.

But mostly they were here to take stock of their investment, Romney. And after two days of intimate mingling with the presumptive Republican nominee and his senior advisers at a rarefied retreat in Park City, they have grown bullish, saying they taste victory like never before in Romney’s six-year quest for the presidency.

“The tide is turning in Mitt’s favor,” said Bobbie Kilberg, a top fundraiser from Virginia. “There’s a real sense here that he can win, and it’s not just that people are being Pollyannaish. You can feel it in the air. . . .This place is full of kinetic energy.”

Jindal, ¿nuevo favorito de las bases?

Hot Air:

After a long run at the top, Marco Rubio has been overtaken by Bobby Jindal as Hot Air’s pick for vice president. Allen West came in third, followed by Paul Ryan and Condoleezza Rice. Over 2300 votes were cast:

"Stage"

Priorities USA Action, el Super PAC de Obama, insiste con Bain Capital.

MIKE EARNEST (ex trabajador de Ampad): "De la nada, un día, nos dijeron que construyeramos un escenario de 30 pies. Reunimos a los hombres y construimos ese escenario de 30 pies, sin saber para qué era. Días después, nos reunieron a los tres turnos en el almacén. Un grupo de personas salieron a ese escenario, y nos dijeron que la fábrica está cerrada y todos estáis despedidos. Miré a ambos lados, miré a la gente, y todos acabábamos de perder nuestros empleos. No teníamos ingresos. Mitt Romney hizo más de un millón de dólares cerrando nuestra fábrica, y devastó nuestras vidas. Resultó que construir aquel escenario fue como construir mi propio ataúd. Y me pone enfermo."

¿Qué quiere Ron Paul?

The Washington Post:

Texas Rep. Ron Paul raised $1.8 million in May — even though he announced half way through the month he would no longer compete in primaries. He ended the month with nearly $3.3 million in the bank.

Paul’s continued fundraising ability is s yet more proof that he was never running a traditional campaign but rather overseeing a cause that operated largely independent of election results. And it also suggests that Paul and his supporters could throw a wrench into former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s plans at the Republican National Convention — whether or not the libertarian-leaning lawmaker is offered a formal speaking slot.

In recent interviews with CNN and MSNBC, Paul intimated that he is not expecting a speaking slot at the convention, but that he does want a debate.

“I’m not sure I will have a public presence, but we will have a presence, the organization,” he told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Wednesday morning. “All I want to do, if I don’t get a speech on the floor in the convention, all I want to do is have a meeting and say, ‘Look, we have numbers, we have people, we have enthusiasm, we believe in something. Why don’t you pay a little attention?’” Paul said. “And actually I think they are.”

On CNN, he added: “I would like to have these conventions mean something and continue to debate and decide what we as a party actually believe in.”

Taxpayers pitch in for the convention and should get more than a heavily scripted, four-day pep rally, Paul argued: “Everybody pays for this, 18 million dollars to pay for this, and you’re not allowed to have a discussion,” he said.

Of course, what Paul wants out of the convention is directly at odds with the orderly and predictable event that Romney and his team covet.

History suggests that all of Paul’s talk could just as easily fizzle as create a real problem for Romney in Tampa at the end of August.

(...) “We are running a delegate program for Tampa — its a delegate assistance program,” said Doug Wead, a senior adviser to Paul. “We will have a whip team and more.”

Given that, Romney might need to placate the Paul contingent in some way. (The future ambitions of Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Ron’s son, should help.)

“Governor Romney has a lot of respect for Dr. Paul and the energy his supporters bring to the process,” said Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul. “We look forward to broad participation at the Tampa convention and know the Paul enthusiasts will have their voices heard.”

People in Paul’s orbit say the candidate’s dialogue with the Republican National Committee have been constructive and fair.

After the election, Paul, who is stepping down from the House, will devote himself to his so-called “Campaign for Liberty” full-time. Whether he uses that perch to antagonize the GOP or promote it might depend on what happens in August.

Ryan sí está en la lista de Romney

Robert Costa dice en National Review:

I’m reliably informed that Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the Budget Committee chairman, has submitted paperwork to the Romney campaign. Sources confirm that he is being vetted for the vice-presidential nomination.

(...) For their part, Ryan and his team remain mum on the issue, telling NRO: “Respecting their campaign’s internal process, we’re not going to comment.”

"En brusco declive"

Bill O'Really (Fox News) resume los factores que están erosionando el poder presidencial de Obama.

Obama en Tampa, Florida

Después de su intervención en la conferencia anual de NALEO, el Presidente celebró un mitin en una universidad de Tampa. La ciudad que albergará la convención republicana dentro de dos meses, se encuentra en el condado de Hillsborough, uno de los más disputados de Florida y, por tanto, del país. En 2000, Gore ganó el condado por 3 puntos; en 2004, Bush se lo llevó por 7 puntos; y en 2008, fue Obama quien se lo llevó también por 7 puntos.



Hubo tropezón presidencial al saltar al escenario.

¿Te casas? Dona tus regalos de boda a Obama

La última iniciativa de Chicago para recaudar fondos. Visto en CBS News:



Aunque parezca una broma, va en serio.

Teruel, digo... el voto blanco existe

Aunque los medios de comunicación y los expertos se pasen los días discutiendo sobre el impacto de las minorías en las elecciones, RealClearPolitics nos recuerda que el voto blanco también existe:

President Obama does not currently have enough white support to win re-election even if he retains his minority base from 2008. At the same time, electoral data indicates Mitt Romney has not yet attracted enough of these white voters to capitalize on Obama's weakness.

Pundits often note that Romney cannot win with his current level of Hispanic support. That's likely true. But so is the converse: Obama cannot win with his level of white support unless white swing voters withhold their votes from Romney as well.

Today, fewer whites back Obama than any Democratic candidate since Walter Mondale. Romney does not need to emulate Ronald Reagan to win. Should he match Reagan’s share of the white vote in 1984 -- presuming all else remains constant since 2008 -- Romney would rout Obama.

Of course, America has changed since Reagan. Non-Hispanic whites were 89 percent of the electorate when Reagan first won the White House in 1980. They were 85 percent in 1988. By 2008, whites were 74 percent. That shift has upended the electoral landscape. But only so much.

(...) The white margin to watch: 61-39. That’s the rough break-even point. Obama likely needs more than 39 percent of whites to assure re-election. Romney likely needs at least 61 percent of whites to assure Obama’s defeat (or 60.5 in some scenerios). These are estimates based on an electorate that matches the diversity of 2008 or is slightly less white. It presumes the Electoral College outcome does not diverge from the winner of the popular vote (loose talk aside, it’s only happened four times in U.S. history).

Thus, Obama can do a little worse than Dukakis, and Romney must perform a little better than Bush circa 1988. Whites favored Reagan in 1984 by a 64-35 margin. They favored Bush in 1988 by a 59-40 margin. Four years ago, whites favored McCain by a 55-43 margin.

Only 37 or 38 percent of whites back Obama today, according to the Gallup Poll’s authoritative weekly averages since early April (which have a larger sample size than most polls combined). The rub for Romney? In those same matchups, Romney only wins 54 percent of whites. Other surveys show the same. CNN’s latest pegged the white margin at 53-39. FOX News’ latest, 51-35. Ipsos-Reuters, 53-38. The Pew Research Center's polls have, however, shown Obama stronger this year. Its recent survey placed the margin at 54-41.

Writ large, Obama appears below his floor with whites. But so does Romney. Obama has too few whites saying yea to a second term. And Romney has converted too few nays to his side. Notably, the same share of whites say they will vote for Obama as approve of his job performance.

These whites constitute, by far, the largest share of the swing vote. The president depends on Hispanics to partly compensate for his weakness with whites. That’s possible in some states like Florida, Colorado and Nevada. But Latinos are less than a 10th of the electorate in every other swing state.

Obama en la conferencia anual de NALEO

Un resumen de lo que ha dicho.

La historia reciente dice que el VP nunca suele ser el que más suena

RealClearPolitics:

On July 14, 1996, former New York Congressman Jack Kemp appeared on CNN's "Inside Politics," where he criticized bluntly the campaign being run by Bob Dole, who was failing in his effort to make competitive the general election race against President Clinton.

"We've been on defense -- there's no doubt about it," Kemp said of the Republican nominee’s campaign.

For good measure, he added that “hoping for the collapse of the Clinton administration” was “no way to run for president.”

As a Dole surrogate, Kemp’s comments could scarcely have been more off-message.

Furthermore, Kemp’s history of clashes with the Kansas senator over both policy and personality appeared to eliminate any chance that Dole might consider naming the former football star to the Republican ticket.

The VP possibility seemed so remote at the time of the CNN interview that Wolf Blitzer did not even ask Kemp about it and instead inquired about Colin Powell becoming Dole’s pick and whether Kemp might be interested in a Cabinet position.

No one watching could have predicted the events of less than a month later, when Kemp arrived in Russell, Kan., by chartered jet and accompanied by a Secret Service contingent -- to be introduced to the nation as Bob Dole’s running mate.

The surprising vice-presidential choice in 1996 was far from unique in modern Republican presidential politics.

While every eventual GOP nominee in the last five non-incumbent presidential cycles began the race as a favorite, the same cannot be said of their VP picks, all of whom were initially regarded inside the Beltway echo chamber either as blips on the political radar or not on the screen at all.

After Vice President George H.W. Bush wrapped up the Republican nomination in 1988, his aides quietly circulated a list of running-mate possibilities, which included both Dole and Kemp among the favorites.

According to a Washington Post story in July of that year, former President Richard Nixon had offered Bush some advice: make the “short list” appear to be as long as possible.

"Once you get it down to two or three people," Nixon told him, "see to it that a dozen or so names get out in the press. It'll be a sop to everyone on the list, and it will keep the press off the trail."

The eventual pick that year, Dan Quayle, scarcely got any ink as a serious possibility until just before Bush added him to the ticket on the second day of the Republican National Convention in New Orleans.

Twelve years later and one cycle removed from Dole’s surprise selection of Kemp, Texas Gov. George W. Bush became the latest GOP presidential nominee to go with a running mate who had previously made none of the early lists of supposedly top-tier contenders for the job.

Dick Cheney, who helmed Bush’s vice-presidential search committee, had not been on the national media’s radar as a possibility in his own right until Cheney changed his voter registration from Texas to Wyoming just days before he was selected in late July 2000 -- a move that was understood to have been done for Constitutional considerations. (The 12th Amendment prohibits electors from casting votes for someone from their state for both president and vice president.)

Throughout the summer of 2008, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty were the two names most frequently mentioned at the top of the public lists of contenders to become John McCain’s running mate.

As the speculation game went into overdrive -- with a major assist from the new media environment and the intense public interest in all facets of that year’s campaign -- McCain aides whispered to two well-known journalists false information about the timing and identity of the standard-bearer’s VP pick, which helped to throw the rest of the pack off the scent.

Though a handful of conservative opinion-makers touted Sarah Palin, and the Alaska governor was included on some news outlets’ lists, her ultimate selection was widely considered the most surprising choice in modern American political history.

CBS News political director John Dickerson, who covered his first presidential campaign as an embedded reporter in 1996, said that the VP guessing game is always replete with pure speculation and serves mainly to fill a vacuum during the summer doldrums, when there is a relative scarcity of major campaign news.

“Vice presidential picks are important because they tell us something about how the guy at the top of the ticket thinks and how he might run his presidency,” Dickerson said. “None of that can be adequately evaluated by talking about whether Carroll Campbell is going to be Bob Dole’s VP pick. From a news standpoint, it’s one of the least nourishing pieces you can do. It tells us nothing.”

CNN’s John King, who has broken the news of at least three vice-presidential picks over the last 24 years, said that the changing nature of the news business has encouraged campaigns to facilitate “pretend lists” to reporters who are eager for even the smallest nibble.

“Especially in the Romney campaign, where so few people really know, you’ll see these stories that say who senior advisers like,” King said. “OK, that’s great, but they’re not making the decision. The stories are informative in that they tell you that Pawlenty or Portman’s held in high regard, but they don’t tell you who Beth Myers and Romney are thinking about.”

Members of Romney’s Boston-based staff often marvel privately at the extent to which the selection process -- being led by Myers, his longtime confidante -- has been kept secret from almost everyone inside the campaign, never mind those on the outside.

“It’s the one thing that goes on in this building that I know absolutely nothing about,” one Romney aide said. “They have that thing on lockdown.”