El RNC elige presidente

Esta tarde conoceremos quién presidirá el Comité Nacional Republicano (RNC) los próximos dos años. Los 168 miembros del comité, seleccionados por los comités estatales, se reunirán en el Gaylord National Hotel & Convention Center de Oxon Hill, Maryland, y mediante votación secreta deberán decidir entre cinco candidatos: Michael Steele, el actual presidente, mal visto por los donantes; Reince Priebus, el insider con más apoyos y el más joven; Saul Anuzis, experto en nuevas tecnologías y redes sociales; Ann Wagner, una de las más eficientes recaudadoras del partido; y Maria Cino, asociada de Karl Rove.

Se requieren 85 votos, por lo que se espera que sean necesarias varias votaciones que pueden llevar horas. Podéis seguir el proceso en directo por C-SPAN (aquí) a partir de las 10:30 am hora local (16:30 hora de Europa continental). Está previsto que las voraciones empiecen hacia las 12:45 pm (18:45 pm).

Chris Cillizza (Washington Post) nos cuenta qué debemos esperar de las votaciones:

(...) Steele is expected to win a significant number of votes on the first ballot as a sort of "thank you" for his service and willingness to spread money and organizational resources around to states (and territories) that have typically been ignored by the RNC.

That vote total is estimated to be somewhere in the 40s although Steele allies insist he could win as many as 60 votes on the first ballot, which seems VERY improbable.

Assuming Steele comes up short of 60, which is generally regarded as a minimum number an incumbent chairman would need to maintain momentum heading into subsequent ballots, the second ballot will be the one to watch as the four other candidates seek to siphon off Steele's support.

That second ballot will be most important to Priebus who is a former Steele ally -- he ran the chairman's successful 2009 campaign -- and is expected to finish in a close second to Steele on the initial ballot (or perhaps even ahead of the incumbent).

If Priebus can claim a sizable chunk of Steele's support in the second round of voting, he could well position himself to win outright on a third ballot -- assuming other candidates bow out once the writing is on the wall.

If Priebus is unable to harvest a decent number of Steele first ballot backers, however, the weight of expectations for the frontrunner could be crushing -- allowing Wagner, Anuzis or even Cino to emerge as the momentum candidate in subsequent ballots. (...)

Jay Newton-Small (Time) nos cuenta cómo llega cada candidato:

(...) As it stands now, according Hotline's excellent tally, Steele is trailing Wisconsin GOP Chair Reince Priebus, a former Steele ally who ran Steele's 2009 campaign for chairman. Priebus has 41 confirmed votes, including today's endorsement by the powerful outgoing New Hampshire Republican Party Chairman John Sununu. Priebus is hoping to take the lead on the first ballot; in 2009, Steele's first ballot advantage over former RNC Chairman Mike Duncan set the tone and gave him momentum. Steele currently has 17 confirmed votes followed by Saul Anuzis and Ann Wagner with 14 votes apiece and Maria Cino with 12 votes. Which means the largest bloc – 70 votes – remains undecided.

(...) Of the other candidates, Cino has the most momentum of late. The former Bush Administration official has the support of Speaker John Boehner and former Vice President Dick Cheney. Boehner even stayed behind from last night's Tucson memorial service in order to attend a fundraiser for Cino. That said, the 168 highly localized RNC committee members often react negatively to inside-the-Beltway pressure: a Connecticut member Boehner called for Cino last week ended up announcing his support for someone else.

Former Missouri Republican Party chair Ann Wagner released a new biographic video this week, spotted in the footage of her backers was former President George H. W. Bush. She is one of the strongest – if not the strongest – fundraiser of the group and she could make a convincing case that she is most able to fix the RNC's money problems. She's also just come from chairing Roy Blunt's successful bid for Missouri's open Senate seat and Missouri is likely to be a key state in the 2012 presidential election.

Finally, Saul Anuzis has the backing of the party chairs in Iowa and South Carolina – two key primary states. He's a former party chairman in Michigan – a state where Republicans have made inroads of late. He has the advantage of being one of the 168 voting members and, aside from Steele, is the only one of the group who has run for chairman before. (...)