viernes, 13 de mayo de 2011

Huckabee anunciará su decisión mañana

New York Times:
Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, will announce on Saturday whether he will run for president, the producer of his show on the Fox News Channel said Friday.

“Governor Huckabee will announce tomorrow night on his program whether or not he intends to explore a presidential bid,” Woody Fraser, the executive producer of “Huckabee” said in a statement. “He has not told anyone at FOX News Channel his decision.”

Senior political aides to Mr. Huckabee also said Friday they do not know what he will decide, raising suspicions that Mr. Huckabee will take a pass on another campaign. (...)
Según Ed Rollins, Huckabee no ha consultado nada con él, lo que le lleva a pensar que no se presenta:
(...) But Ed Rollins, who directed his 2008 campaign and has been organizing his 2012 campaign-in-waiting, said he has not been consulted.

“I’ve heard nothing, which indicates to me he’s not running,” Mr. Rollins said in an interview. (...)

Romney promete desmantelar el ObamaCare

Defendió que la reforma sanitaria de Massachusetts era necesaria para rebajar el coste de la asistencia sanitaria en su estado y enfrentar el creciente número de residentes no asegurados. La definió como una propuesta mucho más modesta que el ObamaCare y no como un programa gubernamental de seguro. Considera que el ObamaCare supone que el gobierno tome el control del sistema sanitario y augura un desastre económico. Es partidario de que los estados puedan experimentar.

Prometió que, en cuanto asuma la Presidencia, firmará una orden ejecutiva que dé facilidades a los 50 estados para renunciar al ObamaCare y empezar así el proceso para su completa revocación. Prometió que en su lugar emprenderá un programa de incentivos a los estados para que éstos aprueben sus propias reformas basadas en el mercado. Se propone restaurar el liderazgo de los estados para que administren su responsabilidad y sus recursos en materia sanitaria, ofrecer deducciones fiscales a los individuos que contraten su propio seguro y a las empresas que lo contraten para sus empleados, y convertir el sistema sanitario en un mercado de consumidores en lugar de un programa gubernamental.

Romney está abusando del look casual. El de ayer era un discurso de corbata.

jueves, 12 de mayo de 2011

"Candidate Democrats Most Fear"

Melinda Henneberger le dedica un reportaje a Jon Huntsman en Time con el gratificante título "el candidato presidencial republicano que los demócratas más temen." El tipo de pieza que contribuye a elevar el perfil del personaje. Incluye entrevistas con el protagonista, familia y asesores.
Republican presidential hopeful Jon Huntsman has just proved he can keep 1,100 graduating college kids awake for 17 minutes — and even led them in a popular local cheer about kicking ass. But Obama's lean, understated former ambassador to China is really here to prove he can mount a credible campaign against the man he was working for a week prior. In a brightly lit cinder-block room inside the sports arena where the University of South Carolina has held its commencement, the former Utah governor jokes that the stark setting of our interview — his first since returning to the U.S. — suggests he might be in for some "enhanced interrogation."

But if that's what I'm up to, then torture really doesn't work, because in several sittings and a couple of hours together over a week's time, I don't even come close to getting him to spill such puny secrets as whether he thinks we should be in Afghanistan or Libya ("There will be more to say about that"), in what ways he disagrees with Obama ("I don't want to get into specifics") or, for that matter, where he parts company with his fellow Republicans, including his distant cousin, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney ("It wouldn't be fair to offer an opinion without doing due diligence").

And as for whether or not Huntsman still belongs to the Church of Latter-day Saints, I know less than I did before I asked him. ("I'm a very spiritual person," as opposed to a religious one, he says, "and proud of my Mormon roots." Roots? That makes it sound as if you're not a member anymore. Are you? "That's tough to define," he says. "There are varying degrees. I come from a long line of saloon keepers and proselytizers, and I draw from both sides.")

Continúa (...)

Huntsman se hace con un hombre de Barbour

Race42012.com hizo una lista con los siete principales operativos de campaña que habían firmado con el comité de acción política de Haley Barbour antes de conocerse que el Gobernador de Mississippi no sería candidato a Presidente. Ahora el interés está en ver quién se hace con los servicios de estas personas. Jon Huntsman se ha hecho con uno de ellos.
(...) When Haley Barbour announced he wasn’t running for President, the big question quickly became: where will his campaign staff go? Specifically, Barbour made seven rather marquee hires during the run-up to his aborted bid that I am hereby dubbing “Haley’s Seven”:

Mike Dennehy (NH) – McCain’s campaign director (2000) and political director (2008)
Paul Young (NH) – McCain’s outreach coalition director (2008)
Jim Dyke – former RNC Communications Director; adviser to George W. Bush, Bill Frist, and Rudy Giuliani
James Richardson – former RNC Online Communications Director; worked on Dan Coats’ 2010 campaign, blogs at RedState
Rob Collins – expected to be Haley Barbour’s overall campaign manager; former top aide to Eric Cantor and staffer for Norm Coleman
Warren Tompkins (SC) – political consultant for Romney (2008), Bush-Cheney (2004), and Reagan-Bush (1984 and 1980)
Sally Bradshaw (FL) – campaign manager for both of Jeb Bush’s gubernatorial campaigns, worked on Romney’s FL campaign (2008)

As you can see, these seven folks represent a wealth of campaign talent spread over numerous different areas – from early states to establishment support to online presence. Where these seven folks will end up has been the topic of many postulations and guessing games since Barbour released them.

This morning comes news that the first one of them has signed on with a new suitor: James Richardson is going with Jon Huntsman. (...)

Gingrich ya es candidato



Es el primero de primera línea que anuncia candidatura oficialmente.

"Soy Newt Gingrich, y anuncio mi candidatura a Presidente de Estados Unidos porque creo que podemos devolver América a la esperanza y la portunidad, al pleno empleo, a la seguridad real, a un programa energético americano, a un presupuesto equilibrado.

(...) Trabajé con el Presidente Ronald Reagan en un periodo muy difícil. Logramos crear empleos de nuevo, que los americanos se sintieran orgullosos de América, y que la URSS desapareciera.

(...) "Trabajé para reformar la asistencia sanitaria, equilibrar el presupuesto, controlar el gasto, recortar impuestos para crear crecimiento económico... lo hemos hecho antes; podemos hacerlo otra vez."

(...) "Hay algunas personas a las que no les importa que América naufrague mientras ellos dominen los restos, pero tú y yo somos más sensatos."

(...) "Mirar a la realidad a la cara."

(...) "Tomar decisiones difíciles."

(...) "Terminar el trabajo." (...)

miércoles, 11 de mayo de 2011

Entre la ambición y el amor

Según ha comentado alguien de su círculo al Huffington Post, estamos juzgando equivocadamente la indecisión del Gobernador Mitch Daniels. El motivo de su vacilación es el miedo de su mujer a verse obligada a dar explicaciones sobre cierto episodio de su pasado -concretamente el haber abandonado a su marido y sus hijas hace dos décadas para casarse con otro hombre-. Siempre según esa fuente, el Gobernador sí desea presentarse, no tiene dudas. Si opta por no hacerlo será por ella.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels wants to run for president and is not in the process of convincing himself to do it, a close adviser said. The last hurdle remaining is ongoing discussions between him and his wife, Cheri Daniels, over whether she is ready to face questions about their past.

“I think he would like to do it,” the Daniels adviser told The Huffington Post by phone. “I actually think he’d have a decent chance of getting the nomination.”

The insight from a source close to the governor contradicts many of the reports that have focused on whether Daniels will run or not. Daniels has been portrayed -- and has in some ways portrayed himself -- as a reluctant potential candidate, someone who had hoped the GOP would find someone else to be their standard-bearer but is unimpressed with the candidates who have so far declared their intent to run.

The confirmation that the Daniels’ marriage is the last hurdle in front of a bid for the White House highlights the delicate situation in which the Governor finds himself.

In 1993, Cheri Daniels left her husband with their four daughters and married another man in California. She returned a few years later, reconciled with Daniels, and the two were remarried in 1997. That is, in a nutshell, the story. The national press first picked up on it last year when it was buried at the bottom of an 8,600-word Weekly Standard profile.

But much is unknown. Why did she leave Daniels? Why did she come back? That she would be reluctant to publicly answer such delicate questions in front of the nation seems only natural. (...)

Bachmann podría anunciar el 26 de mayo

The Daily Caller:

Iowa politicos tell The Daily Caller they expect Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann to announce her campaign for the White House at a Polk County GOP fundraiser the Tea Party star is headlining in Des Moines on May 26.

“My sense is she’s going to run,” Dave Funk, co-chair of the Polk County GOP in Iowa, told TheDC. Funk is organizing the fundraiser that will host Bachmann, and confirmed to TheDC that the congresswoman will be in Iowa for five days after the event.

Craig Robinson of the IowaRepublican told TheDC that he also has been hearing talk of an official announcement at the fundraiser. “People that are close to her would like to see her make a more formal step,” Robinson said. (...)

martes, 10 de mayo de 2011

Romney explicará su política sanitaria el jueves

Comunicado oficial de su comité exploratorio:
Mitt Romney to Lay Out Plan to Repeal and Replace Obamacare

Reforms to Empower States and Reduce Healthcare Costs

BOSTON, MA — The Romney for President Exploratory Committee today announced that Mitt Romney will present his plan to repeal and replace Obamacare with reforms that lower costs and empower states to craft their own health care solutions.

Date: Thursday, May 12, 2011

Time: 2:00 PM EDT

Participants: Mitt Romney

Location: University of Michigan Cardiovascular Center

Danto Auditorium

1500 E. Medical Center Drive

Ann Arbor, MI 48109-5852

Daniels vuelve a pedir "unas pocas semanas"

Según la WISH-TV 8 de Indianapolis:
Asked if he is closer on a decision regarding the 2012 race for President, Mitch Daniels said “yes” this morning. He declined to elaborate and said a final decision is still a “few weeks” away. (...)

lunes, 9 de mayo de 2011

Donantes de Iowa se reunirán con Christie

Según The Blaze:
Some of Iowa’s top Republican campaign contributors, unhappy with their choices in the developing presidential field, are venturing to New Jersey in hopes they can persuade first-term Gov. Chris Christie to run. The entreaty is the latest sign of dissatisfaction within the GOP over the crop of candidates competing for the chance to run against President Barack Obama in 2012.

Bruce Rastetter, an Iowa energy company executive, and a half-dozen other prominent Iowa GOP donors sought the meeting with Christie, the governor’s chief political adviser, Mike DuHaime, told The Associated Press. The get-together is set for the governor’s mansion in Princeton, N.J., on May 31.

The meeting speaks to what some Republicans nationally say is a lack of enthusiasm about the emerging roster of contenders. It’s also unusual because candidates typically court Iowans, who get the first say in presidential nominating contests, and not the other way around.

Christie, who was elected in 2009 and has drawn national attention for his tough talk and battles with Democrats, has explicitly and repeatedly rejected the idea of running for the White House. Yet that hasn’t deterred these Iowans.

“There isn’t anyone like Chris Christie on the national scene for Republicans,” Rastetter told the AP. “And so we believe that he, or someone like him, running for president is very important at this critical time in our country.”

It’s not the first instance this year of Iowa Republicans seeking to widen the 2012 field. A former state party chairman, Steve Grubbs, approached Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’ top aide in Indianapolis last month. Daniels expects to say in a few weeks whether he will enter the race. (...)

sábado, 7 de mayo de 2011

El cadáver de Bin Laden le da 5 puntos a Obama

La eliminación de Osama Bin Laden le ha supuesto al Presidente Barack Obama un incremento de 5 puntos en el índice de aprobación de Gallup. El pasado fin de semana estaba en el 46% y en el primer sondeo posterior a los felices acontecimientos se sitúa en el 51%, su nivel más alto en dos meses y medio. Rasmussen da cifras similares. Es una variación pequeña pero puede ser interesante si consigue mantener la tendencia.

George W. Bush experimentó un incremento de 7 puntos con la captura de Saddam Hussein en diciembre de 2003, partiendo de mejores números. Antes de la captura de Saddam, Bush se situaba en un más que aceptable 56% de aprobación. Después de la noticia saltó al 63%. Diez meses y medio después fue reelegido con el 51% de los votos.

Primer discurso de Huntsman tras regresar de China

Discurso optimista el que ha pronunciado el Gobernador Jon Huntsman ante los graduados de la Universidad de Carolina del Sur en el Colonial Life Arena de Columbia. No ha hecho ninguna referencia a su futuro pero ha dejado algunos indicios que hacen pensar que se presenta. Ha dedicado unas líneas a defenderse de los que lo cuestionan por haber servido como Embajador durante el mandato de Obama.

"Trabajad para mantener una América fuerte. Servirla si os lo piden. Yo fui llamado a servirla por un Presidente de un partido político diferente. Pero al final, aunque podamos no ser todos de un mismo partido, somos todos parte de una misma nación. Una nación que necesita vuestro don generacional, energía y confianza."

(...) "Vuestra generación tendrá una serie de circunstancias únicas que os hacen sentir como si vuestro futuro hubiera sido de algún modo descarrilado. Guerras, recesiones económicas, agitación social, revoluciones alrededor del mundo... y aún, en cada caso, nos recuperamos, aprendemos lecciones y nos volvemos incluso más fuertes. Nuestro sistema necesita un nuevo pensamiento. Necesitamos a una nueva generación de innovadores, líderes, atrevidos, empresarios, científicos, y activistas."

(...) "Sé que hay muchos en China que creen que su hora ha llegado, que los mejores días de América han terminado. Y hay probablemente algunos en este país que han perdido confianza y creen que China es la próxima gran cosa. Pero esta gente no ve las cosas desde mi anterior posición estratégica a 10,000 millas. La verdadera prueba de una nación no es cómo de bien lo hace en los buenos tiempos, sino cómo de bien lo hace cuando los tiempos son duros. Por lo que vi desde el extranjero, la pasión de América permanece tan fuerte hoy como siempre." (...)

Opina el padre

El industrial y filántropo Jon Huntsman padre, ha hablado con Forbes sobre las ambiciones presidenciales de su hijo:

(...) On Huntsman Jr.’s political career so far:

“When he left Utah as governor he had positive ratings from 80% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats. The state had a AAA credit rating.”

On his other experience:

“He has been ambassador to Singapore and China. He was a rockstar over there. He had to manage Sino-American relations including the trillions of trade dollars, the Dalai Lama, the Koreans, the Russians. The Chinese loved him. He is an exceptional individual. He was also president of our Huntsman Cancer Center.”

On his likeability as a person:

“He’s a motorcross rider, he does these long jumps. He’s a keyboard player. He had long hair and dropped out of high school to play in a band…He played with REO Speedwagon. I made sure I told him this was a temporary thing.”

Would Jr.’s campaign overlap too much with Mitt Romney’s? (Huntsman Sr. was co-chairman of Romney’s effort in 2008 and they all share the same Mormon faith.)

“Mitt and Jonny are third or fourth cousins. Mitt’s father was a dear and special friend to me when I was in the Nixon White house. But they are very different individuals. Jon Jr. is raising one his daughters as a Hindu [she's adopted from India]. He feels all people should exercise the faith of their heart. Also Jon’s issues are foreign policy. Put the two of them [Jr. and Romney] on the David Letterman Show and the public would think they are two very different people. One would arrive on a motorcycle and play the keyboard and have fun. It would be a fascinating campaign.”

So is he going to run or not?

“When you are in China for two years you are out of circulation. Before he gets too far out he wants to understand America’s needs and understand them thoroughly and deeply. I think he wants to be extremely well-prepared. If he finds there are challenges here and that he can put his arms around them…In a few weeks if he finds he can, then he wil feel comfortable proceeding. His father is clearly cheering him on.” (...)

Ron Paul recauda 1 millón en un día

El Congresista Ron Paul recaudó más de 1 millón de dólares (concretamente 1,028,436) el jueves, en una ofensiva de 24 horas organizada coincidiendo con su participación en el debate de Carolina del Sur. Es una demostración de que sigue en forma. En 2008 su campaña utilizó con frecuencia la táctica del Money Bomb. Se trata de atraer la atención de los grandes medios a través de recaudaciones masivas en las que sus partidarios donan dinero todos a un tiempo.

Rob Johnson será el campaign manager de Gingrich

Según Hotline On Call:
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R) has tapped Rob Johnson to manage his presidential campaign, Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler has confirmed to Hotline On Call. Johnson most recently ran Texas Gov. Rick Perry's (R) successful 2010 re-election effort. He's a well-known political operative in the Lone Star State and signed on with Gingrich as an adviser in March. (...)

viernes, 6 de mayo de 2011

Herman Cain fue el ganador para el Focus Group

La claridad, decisión y sentido del humor de Herman Cain cautivaron a los votantes del Focus Group de Fox News. Cain es el único de los cinco participantes que nunca ha sido un político profesional.

Debate de Carolina del Sur

Completo en cuatro partes.

Parte I



Parte II



Continúa: Parte III / Parte IV

jueves, 5 de mayo de 2011

Matemática electoral de Rove para el 2012

Artículo de Karl Rove, responsable de la última campaña de reelección de un Presidente:
(...) Since the 2008 election, 18 states have experienced a change in their number of electoral votes because of the decennial census. Some (mostly red ones) have gained electoral votes and some (mostly blue) have lost electoral votes. John McCain would have closed the gap by 14 electoral votes in 2008 if the contest had been run under the 2012 Electoral College distribution.

Most states are not in play. Mr. Obama will not win Utah and Wyoming, and the Republican nominee will not carry the District of Columbia or Rhode Island. But right now 14 states (with 172 electoral votes) are up for grabs.

Mr. Obama narrowly won three traditionally Republican states in 2008: Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina. Democrats last carried the first two in 1964 and the third in 1976.

(...) Ohio, with 18 electoral votes, and Florida, with 29, both went Democratic in 2008 (they went Republican in 2004), but the swing in each was less than the national average.

(...) There are nine other states that have frequently been battlegrounds in recent contests. There is every reason to believe they will be so again.

(...) If Mr. Obama loses the three states he narrowly carried in 2008 plus Ohio and Florida, then the GOP would win back the White House by swiping any one of the nine remaining battlegrounds. This is a good place for the party to be right now.

The GOP could benefit from the enthusiasm and new registrations generated in its primaries, just as Democrats did in 2008. It also helps that there are Republican governors in 10 of the 14 battleground states. Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus is planning a big ground game in these states to register, persuade and turn out the vote.

Team Obama can't afford to only play defense. They say they will make plays for Georgia, Arizona and Texas. The first is a long shot; the last two are either attempts to sucker the GOP into a defensive crouch or simply represent bravado. Neither state is likely to go Democratic.

The president's team is already focused on its Electoral College math project. According to CBS Radio's Mark Knoller, since January President Obama has made 40 stops in 15 states. Twelve stops were in battleground states and of the remaining 28 events, 15 were fund raisers in Democratic treasure houses like New York City, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

At this point, the 2012 election is shaping up to be much closer than 2008. Mr. Obama has the considerable benefits of incumbency but also a dismal record. The electoral map has shrunk for him: Key states that went for him last time are unlikely to do so again. This election is within the GOP's grasp. The quality of the Republican candidate's campaign and message will decide whether it becomes so. (...)

Gingrich oficializará su candidatura la semana que viene

POLITICO.com:

Newt Gingrich is set to launch his official White House bid within the next week, according to a spokesman.

Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler told The Associated Press that the former House Speaker would become a formal candidate ahead of his speech at the Georgia Republican Party's convention next Friday in Macon.

While Tyler offered no details on that announcement, he said Gingrich "will be a candidate for president" by the time he makes that speech.

Ahead of that announcement, Gingrich has opened a campaign office in Atlanta, just two floors above the Georgia Republican Party's headquarters.

As Gingrich moves toward making his presidential run official, Tyler said he has been tying up loose business details, including turning in the manuscript for a book and completing a film that was in the works with his production company.