Es el segundo ex asesor de Huckabee en Iowa que firma con otro candidato.
Lo cuenta Peter Hamby:
(...) One of the strategists who engineered Mike Huckabee's victory in the 2008 Iowa caucuses is going to work for another Republican, one more indicator that the former Arkansas governor isn't eying a repeat presidential bid in 2012.
Huckabee's Iowa political director in 2008, Wes Enos, has signed on as a consultant with Michele Bachmann's political action committee as the Minnesota congresswoman and Tea Party hero mulls a bid for the Republican presidential nomination. An adviser to Bachmann confirmed the hire.
(...) Enos becomes the second former Huckabee adviser to switch teams: Eric Woolson, who helmed Huckabee's Iowa operation in 2008, plans to advise former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's likely presidential bid. (...)
lunes, 4 de abril de 2011
Mensaje de Obama a sus seguidores
Texto escrito personalmente por el Presidente Obama y enviado por email a sus partidarios:
“Today, we are filing papers to launch our 2012 campaign. We're doing this now because the politics we believe in does not start with expensive TV ads or extravaganzas, but with you -- with people organizing block-by-block, talking to neighbors, co-workers, and friends. And that kind of campaign takes time to build. So even though I'm focused on the job you elected me to do, and the race may not reach full speed for a year or more, the work of laying the foundation for our campaign must start today."
“Today, we are filing papers to launch our 2012 campaign. We're doing this now because the politics we believe in does not start with expensive TV ads or extravaganzas, but with you -- with people organizing block-by-block, talking to neighbors, co-workers, and friends. And that kind of campaign takes time to build. So even though I'm focused on the job you elected me to do, and the race may not reach full speed for a year or more, the work of laying the foundation for our campaign must start today."
Obama lanza su campaña de re-elección con un web video
Cede el protagonismo a una serie de partidarios entre la gente corriente que explican por qué apoyan la re-elección del Presidente. La ausencia de Obama sugiere que, al igual que Bush en 2003, la implicación del Presidente en la campaña en estos primeros meses no va a ser directa, limitándose a los actos de recaudación de fondos.
sábado, 2 de abril de 2011
Pawlenty con los College Republicans de Iowa
El ex Gobernador de Minnesota fue ayer el orador principal en la convención anual de la Iowa Federation of College Republicans, en Des Moines.
Romney visita el barrio con más embargos del país
El Gobernador Romney, vestido informal con unos jeans y una camisa azul remangada y sin corbata, visitó ayer un barrio del norte de Las Vegas, en Nevada, que es la zona con más ejecuciones hipotecarias de todo el país. Mantuvo un encuentro con un matrimonio que ha visto cómo el valor de su casa disminuía más de 210,000 dólares en los últimos años, y recorrió el vecindario lleno de casas embargadas.
viernes, 1 de abril de 2011
Bachmann recaudó 2.2 millones en el primer trimestre
Buenas cifras de recaudación de Michele Bachmann en el primer trimestre del año. Inusualmente altas en una fase tan temprana para un miembro de la Cámara de Representantes que no se llame Ron Paul. Ha recaudado más dinero que Mitt Romney en el mismo periodo. Las cifras auguran que la suya puede ser una candidatura presidencial más que viable.
(...) Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, one of the most aggressive fundraisers on Capitol Hill, collected $1.7 million for her re-election campaign during the first three months of the year, a Bachmann adviser told CNN Friday.
And since that money sits in a federal account, it can be transferred to a presidential campaign account should the Tea Party favorite officially join the race for the Republican nomination in 2012…
All told, she raised $2.2 million in the first quarter of 2011.
That total is greater than the $1.9 million raised during the same period by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, considered the national frontrunner in the GOP presidential race. (...)
(...) Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, one of the most aggressive fundraisers on Capitol Hill, collected $1.7 million for her re-election campaign during the first three months of the year, a Bachmann adviser told CNN Friday.
And since that money sits in a federal account, it can be transferred to a presidential campaign account should the Tea Party favorite officially join the race for the Republican nomination in 2012…
All told, she raised $2.2 million in the first quarter of 2011.
That total is greater than the $1.9 million raised during the same period by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, considered the national frontrunner in the GOP presidential race. (...)
Obama registrará su candidatura en cuestión de días
Lo cuenta Lynn Sweet en el Chicago Sun-Times. La razón de tanta prisa es que quieren empezar a recaudar fondos cuanto antes porque preocupan los grupos externos vinculados al GOP que en 2008 no existían pero que en 2012 amenazan con gastar grandes cantidades de dinero para atacar al Presidente de forma independiente desde antes incluso de que se defina quién será su rival.
(...) President Obama will register with the Federal Election Commission as a 2012 re-election candidate as early as Monday, I've learned, clearing the way for what may be the biggest campaign fund-raising drive in the nation's history -- not counting Obama-allied independent fund-raising in the works.
Democratic National Committee spokesman Hari Sevugan told me Thursday, "No decision has been made," but I've heard from a campaign insider that the papers will be quietly filed in a few days, with more of a kickoff -- via an Obama video and-or text message -- to come later.
The FEC registration means the Obama team may start collecting contributions for the Obama 2012 Victory fund, which is being established.
Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina has been previewing strategies with megadonors in Washington at DNC meetings last month and last Monday night in Chicago, when he headlined an event for Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) donors. The Obama 2012 national headquarters will be in Chicago's Prudential Building.
Messina has been telling the elite donor ranks Obama will have to raise "north of $750 million," a reference to the amount raised for 2008 -- and the $1 billion the Obama money machine may need for 2012.
Messina has been saying he is worried that outside GOP allied groups -- especially ones that GOP strategist Karl Rove advises -- will be running ads early on.
Earlier in March, a Rove-advised group, Crossroads GPS, spent $750,000 in one-week for an anti-union national cable buy slamming Obama. These early spots will be Obama hits masquerading as "issue" ads, trying to soften up Obama while the many GOP presidential contenders fight it out in their primaries.
Because of the outside money threat, the Obama team, which discouraged independent spending for Obama in 2008, is open to it in 2012. Two trusted former White House staffers are exploring creation of such a group to counter Rove: Sean Sweeney, who was chief of staff for Mayor-elect Rahm Emanuel when he was Obama's chief of staff, and former deputy press secretary Bill Burton. (...)
(...) President Obama will register with the Federal Election Commission as a 2012 re-election candidate as early as Monday, I've learned, clearing the way for what may be the biggest campaign fund-raising drive in the nation's history -- not counting Obama-allied independent fund-raising in the works.
Democratic National Committee spokesman Hari Sevugan told me Thursday, "No decision has been made," but I've heard from a campaign insider that the papers will be quietly filed in a few days, with more of a kickoff -- via an Obama video and-or text message -- to come later.
The FEC registration means the Obama team may start collecting contributions for the Obama 2012 Victory fund, which is being established.
Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina has been previewing strategies with megadonors in Washington at DNC meetings last month and last Monday night in Chicago, when he headlined an event for Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) donors. The Obama 2012 national headquarters will be in Chicago's Prudential Building.
Messina has been telling the elite donor ranks Obama will have to raise "north of $750 million," a reference to the amount raised for 2008 -- and the $1 billion the Obama money machine may need for 2012.
Messina has been saying he is worried that outside GOP allied groups -- especially ones that GOP strategist Karl Rove advises -- will be running ads early on.
Earlier in March, a Rove-advised group, Crossroads GPS, spent $750,000 in one-week for an anti-union national cable buy slamming Obama. These early spots will be Obama hits masquerading as "issue" ads, trying to soften up Obama while the many GOP presidential contenders fight it out in their primaries.
Because of the outside money threat, the Obama team, which discouraged independent spending for Obama in 2008, is open to it in 2012. Two trusted former White House staffers are exploring creation of such a group to counter Rove: Sean Sweeney, who was chief of staff for Mayor-elect Rahm Emanuel when he was Obama's chief of staff, and former deputy press secretary Bill Burton. (...)
Tres factores para la derrota de Obama
Matthew Dowd, estratega jefe de la campaña de reelección del Presidente Bush en 2004 y del Gobernador Schwarzenegger en 2006, cree que derrotar a Obama en 2012 dependerá de la combinación de tres factores.
(...) First, the economy in 2012 has to be either stagnant or in decline in the 10 or so key electoral states (especially the ones in the Midwest) as he heads into the election. This would mean that the economy is creating very few net jobs in 2012 and that prices (including food and gas) are still rising.
Second, no new major international crisis arises that causes people to rally behind Obama because of his competent handling of it. And I emphasize the words “new,” “major,” and “competent.” Afghanistan and Iraq devolving again into a problem will not help Obama, and actually may hurt him because our country has basically moved on from the situation in both places.
Third, a Republican nominee has to emerge who is charismatic; is a very good communicator; is in touch with the country’s economic and social needs; and is a new brand of GOP leader whom many younger voters can connect with. Think of what it took in 1980 to defeat the Democratic incumbent—Ronald Reagan and crises galore.
All three factors must converge for Obama to lose, and two of them are needed to drive his job approval down to a place, as I have written before, that makes it difficult for him to win. As one can see, these three elements don’t include how much money the Democratic National Committee and Obama have at their disposal; how much cash the Republican National Committee or the Republican nominee raises; the quality of each campaign staff; the legislative machinations of Congress; or the use of modern technology in the campaigns (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, etc.). Those are all tactical factors that, ultimately, will have little influence on whether Obama wins or loses.
Two of these factors—the economy and an international crisis—are basically out of the GOP’s hands (in many ways, they are out of the Obama campaign’s control as well). Republicans should only be concerned with nominating the candidate who can give them a shot at winning if the two other factors are in place. And note that I didn’t add longtime political office-holding to the qualifications. Experience is nice, but it isn’t necessary in this environment. (...)
(...) First, the economy in 2012 has to be either stagnant or in decline in the 10 or so key electoral states (especially the ones in the Midwest) as he heads into the election. This would mean that the economy is creating very few net jobs in 2012 and that prices (including food and gas) are still rising.
Second, no new major international crisis arises that causes people to rally behind Obama because of his competent handling of it. And I emphasize the words “new,” “major,” and “competent.” Afghanistan and Iraq devolving again into a problem will not help Obama, and actually may hurt him because our country has basically moved on from the situation in both places.
Third, a Republican nominee has to emerge who is charismatic; is a very good communicator; is in touch with the country’s economic and social needs; and is a new brand of GOP leader whom many younger voters can connect with. Think of what it took in 1980 to defeat the Democratic incumbent—Ronald Reagan and crises galore.
All three factors must converge for Obama to lose, and two of them are needed to drive his job approval down to a place, as I have written before, that makes it difficult for him to win. As one can see, these three elements don’t include how much money the Democratic National Committee and Obama have at their disposal; how much cash the Republican National Committee or the Republican nominee raises; the quality of each campaign staff; the legislative machinations of Congress; or the use of modern technology in the campaigns (Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, etc.). Those are all tactical factors that, ultimately, will have little influence on whether Obama wins or loses.
Two of these factors—the economy and an international crisis—are basically out of the GOP’s hands (in many ways, they are out of the Obama campaign’s control as well). Republicans should only be concerned with nominating the candidate who can give them a shot at winning if the two other factors are in place. And note that I didn’t add longtime political office-holding to the qualifications. Experience is nice, but it isn’t necessary in this environment. (...)
jueves, 31 de marzo de 2011
Bachmann entrevistada por The Daily Caller
CONGRESISTA BACHMANN: "Esto no es un juego para mí. Es una decisión muy seria, una decisión trascendental, y no voy a precipitarme... Si digo a la gente que voy a hacer algo, o que voy a luchar por ellos, lo hago. Aunque los medios dominantes me ataquen, estoy dispuesta a luchar por ellos. Esa es una cosa que yo creo que me diferencia. La gente sabe que soy auténtica, soy sincera, pueden contar conmigo. No voy a mentirles o decirles lo que quieren escuchar. No pongo mi dedo en el viento para comprobar los vientos políticos para ver hacia qué lado deberíamos ir. Soy fuerte y soy de principios."
Op-ed de Romney en USA Today
Nuevo artículo de opinión de Mitt Romney en el USA Today. Acusa al Presidente de no haber hecho lo suficiente para hacer frente al desempleo.
(...) Sometimes truth arrives from the most unexpected sources. Christina Romer, President Obama's former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, said last week that she was dismayed at Washington's lack of focus on jobs.
"I frankly don't understand why policymakers aren't more worried about the suffering of real families," Romer said. "We need to realize that there is still a lot of devastation out there." She called the 8.9% unemployment rate "an absolute crisis."
How bad is it? Last week, in the blue-collar community of Taunton, Mass., the annual jobs fair was canceled because not enough companies came forward to offer jobs.
Defining Deviancy Down was the title of Daniel Patrick Moynihan's seminal account of how American society came to condone previously stigmatized conditions and behavior. Moynihan focused on the growing acceptance of the deinstitutionalization of the mentally ill, the expansion of single-parent families and the violence in inner cities. To his examples, we can now add joblessness.
Last year, unemployment averaged a shocking 9.6%. The previous year, at 9.3%, was only marginally better. So far in 2011, it has fallen to 8.9%. A consensus has emerged among some economists and politicians that we must accept historically high levels of unemployment over the next several years. Best case forecasts see a range between 7.5% and 8%
Continúa (...)
(...) Sometimes truth arrives from the most unexpected sources. Christina Romer, President Obama's former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, said last week that she was dismayed at Washington's lack of focus on jobs.
"I frankly don't understand why policymakers aren't more worried about the suffering of real families," Romer said. "We need to realize that there is still a lot of devastation out there." She called the 8.9% unemployment rate "an absolute crisis."
How bad is it? Last week, in the blue-collar community of Taunton, Mass., the annual jobs fair was canceled because not enough companies came forward to offer jobs.
Defining Deviancy Down was the title of Daniel Patrick Moynihan's seminal account of how American society came to condone previously stigmatized conditions and behavior. Moynihan focused on the growing acceptance of the deinstitutionalization of the mentally ill, the expansion of single-parent families and the violence in inner cities. To his examples, we can now add joblessness.
Last year, unemployment averaged a shocking 9.6%. The previous year, at 9.3%, was only marginally better. So far in 2011, it has fallen to 8.9%. A consensus has emerged among some economists and politicians that we must accept historically high levels of unemployment over the next several years. Best case forecasts see a range between 7.5% and 8%
Continúa (...)
miércoles, 30 de marzo de 2011
El círculo íntimo de Bachmann
Chris Cillizza nos presenta a algunas de las personas más relevantes que rodean a la Congresista Michele Bachmann y que podrían formar parte de su campaña.
(...) * Ed Brookover: Brookover is an old hand in Washington Republican politics, having served as the political director at the National Republican Congressional Committee in the 1996 and 1998 election cycles. He’s also done stints at the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican National Committee. Brookover is currently the head of the political practice at Greener & Hook, a GOP consulting firm.
* Rebecca Donatelli: Donatelli specializes in online fundraising and strategy. She served as Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) chief Internet consultant for his 2000 and 2008 presidential bids. Donatelli also worked for former Alaska governor Sarah Palin following the 2008 campaign but the two parted ways after only a few months.
* Tom McGill: McGill broke into campaign politics in 2004 working for the re-election bid of President George W. Bush in Minnesota. McGill then helped head up fundraising for then Rep. Mark Kennedy’s (R-Minn.) 2006 Senate bid and, in 2008,served as deputy national finance director for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign. He also helped raise money for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul.
* Andy Parrish: Parrish currently serves as Bachmann’s chief of staff in her congressional office but has long connections to her, having served as her campaign manager in her first run for Congress in 2006. Parrish rejoined Bachmann’s political world last year when he served as a consultant to her re-election race and then signed on as chief of staff after the 2010 midterms.
* Guy Short: Short served as a general consultant to Bachmann during her 2010 campaign and was primarily tasked with raising the astounding $13.5 million that she collected over the past two years. Based in Denver, Short was along for Bachmann’s trip to Iowa last week. Short previously served as chief of staff to Colorado Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) who lost her bid for re-election in 2008.
* Kent Sorenson: Sorenson, elected to the Iowa state Senate in 2010, has already pledged his support to Bachmann if she runs and has helped make introductions for her during her recent forays into the Hawkeye State. Sorenson is among the most conservative members of the Iowa legislature — he drew national press for submitting a bill that would require a candidate for president to produce a birth certificate — and is regarded as a leader of the tea party movement in Iowa. (...)
(...) * Ed Brookover: Brookover is an old hand in Washington Republican politics, having served as the political director at the National Republican Congressional Committee in the 1996 and 1998 election cycles. He’s also done stints at the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican National Committee. Brookover is currently the head of the political practice at Greener & Hook, a GOP consulting firm.
* Rebecca Donatelli: Donatelli specializes in online fundraising and strategy. She served as Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) chief Internet consultant for his 2000 and 2008 presidential bids. Donatelli also worked for former Alaska governor Sarah Palin following the 2008 campaign but the two parted ways after only a few months.
* Tom McGill: McGill broke into campaign politics in 2004 working for the re-election bid of President George W. Bush in Minnesota. McGill then helped head up fundraising for then Rep. Mark Kennedy’s (R-Minn.) 2006 Senate bid and, in 2008,served as deputy national finance director for former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign. He also helped raise money for the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul.
* Andy Parrish: Parrish currently serves as Bachmann’s chief of staff in her congressional office but has long connections to her, having served as her campaign manager in her first run for Congress in 2006. Parrish rejoined Bachmann’s political world last year when he served as a consultant to her re-election race and then signed on as chief of staff after the 2010 midterms.
* Guy Short: Short served as a general consultant to Bachmann during her 2010 campaign and was primarily tasked with raising the astounding $13.5 million that she collected over the past two years. Based in Denver, Short was along for Bachmann’s trip to Iowa last week. Short previously served as chief of staff to Colorado Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R) who lost her bid for re-election in 2008.
* Kent Sorenson: Sorenson, elected to the Iowa state Senate in 2010, has already pledged his support to Bachmann if she runs and has helped make introductions for her during her recent forays into the Hawkeye State. Sorenson is among the most conservative members of the Iowa legislature — he drew national press for submitting a bill that would require a candidate for president to produce a birth certificate — and is regarded as a leader of the tea party movement in Iowa. (...)
"The 5 craziest"
Steve Kornacki (Salon.com) ha hecho un TOP-5 de los candidatos presidenciales republicanos más disparatados de las últimas décadas. Para él son Phil Crane, Pat Robertson (en la foto practicando boxeo en New Hampshire en 1988), Pat Buchanan, Robert Dornan y Alan Keyes.
(...) 1. Rep. Phil Crane -- 1980
The heir to Donald Rumsfeld's old House seat, Crane came to Congress in 1969, a Goldwater campaign veteran made good. He spent the '70s racking up one of the most conservative voting records in the House and, in the wake of Ronald Reagan's unsuccessful 1976 White House bid, set out to run for the presidency himself in 1980. (His theory was that Reagan, because of age and his two failed bids for the GOP nod, would end up passing on '80, leaving Crane to gobble up "New Right" support.)
Crane's politics weren't really more conservative than Reagan's, but unlike the Gipper, he didn’t know how to mask his extremism with warmth and charm. Instead, he conformed to the popular image of a far-right whacko, purchasing (for instance) 30-minute blocks of time to air a speech in which he held up the Bible and quoted from it in an effort to establish America's Christian roots. He also attracted unwanted attention when, at the height of the campaign, he was sued by Richard Viguerie, the direct mail pioneer, for unpaid bills.
More damaging, though, was the wrath of Bill Loeb, the notoriously vengeful publisher of New Hampshire's largest (and most conservative) newspaper, the Union-Leader. Fearful that Crane's presence in the race would hurt Reagan, Loeb skewered him in a series of front-page editorials, then commissioned a devastating story that used anonymous sources to portray Crane as a serial philanderer with a drinking problem. The story attracted national attention and helped Loeb achieve his goal: Crane finished a distant fifth in Iowa and won only 2 percent in New Hampshire. (Years later, he would publicly admit to a drinking problem and seek treatment.)
2. Pat Robertson -- 1988
Continúa (...)
Pawlenty en Hannity
Cree que la economía volverá a empeorar en 2012, en las fechas precedentes a las elecciones.
GOBERNADOR PAWLENTY: "Creo que nos dirigimos a un doble hundimiento recesivo. Es mi visión personal. Creo que han inundado la economía con dinero fiduciario de un modo que va a tener una vuelta de la inflación hasta un nivel que creo que va a ser muy problemático... Puede que parezca que haya una mejoría temporal porque han insuflado artificialmente dinero del gobierno a la economía. Eso tendrá consecuencias, tan seguro como que estamos sentados aquí."
GOBERNADOR PAWLENTY: "Creo que nos dirigimos a un doble hundimiento recesivo. Es mi visión personal. Creo que han inundado la economía con dinero fiduciario de un modo que va a tener una vuelta de la inflación hasta un nivel que creo que va a ser muy problemático... Puede que parezca que haya una mejoría temporal porque han insuflado artificialmente dinero del gobierno a la economía. Eso tendrá consecuencias, tan seguro como que estamos sentados aquí."
El fervor no se compra
George Bush y John Connally en 1979. (Foto: Bettmann/CORBIS)
Retrocedemos al verano de 1979. En plena fase exploratoria, el Gobernador Ronald Reagan tuvo que dar explicaciones por las malas cifras recaudatorias de su operación política. En el segundo trimestre del año, su comité exploratorio había sido superado en recaudación por John Connally, George Bush, e incluso el Congresista Phil Crane. Había reunido sólo 1.4 millones de dólares, de los que ya se había gastado 1.3 millones en viajes y pagos al personal de la campaña.
Las cosas sólo fueron a peor a lo largo de 1979. En el mes de septiembre, su comité estaba en números rojos, con una deuda de 500,000 dólares. En los meses que siguieron tuvo que decidir entre echar el cierre o aceptar fondos federales que restringirían su libertad para recaudar dinero pero que eran el único modo de superar las dificultades de la primera etapa. Incuso con la sesión de primarias iniciada, tuvo que hacer frente a una reestructuración radical del personal de la campaña.
Frente a él, un organizadísimo y bien financiado George Bush dispuesto a comprar el Caucus de Iowa. Desde finales de 1978, todos los gastos de personal y viajes de Bush eran financiados por el Fund Limited Government y el Congressional Leadership Committee, dos comités de acción política creados para ese propósito por su amigo James Baker y el multimillonario texano Robert Mosbacher. Esas dos organizaciones contribuyeron además a más de una veintena de candidatos republicanos a cargos estatales de todo el país con 10,000 dólares para cada uno, para tejer una amplia red de apoyos políticos a la candidatura presidencial de Bush.
El ex director de la CIA contaba entre sus donantes con altos ejecutivos de compañías petroleras texanas como Pennzoil, Haggar Slacks, McCormick Oil & Gas, Houston Oil & Minerals, y Texas Instruments. A los que había que sumar a sus partidarios en el establishment y la comunidad financiera de Nueva York, Greenwich y Boston. Sus donaciones permitieron al candidato construir un perfil nacional viajando a 46 estados, cubriendo más de 96,000 millas en 1978, cuando aún ni siquiera era candidato.
John Connally estuvo incluso mejor financiado que Bush. El ex Secretario del Tesoro recaudó un total de más de 12 millones de dólares para las primarias, que ajustándolo a la inflación y al coste de la vida hoy en día sería más del doble. Por si fuera poco, era de todos los candidatos el que proyectaba una imagen más presidencial, con buena planta, pelo plateado, trajes caros, y una oratoria articulada. En aquella época estaba de moda la serie de TV 'El hombre de los seis millones de dólares', cuyo protagonista era un ex astronauta reconstruído biónicamente que podía correr y saltar largas distancias, una especie de hombre perfecto y caro, así que Connally empezó a ser llamado "el candidato biónico."
La prensa le colgó la etiqueta de candidato del Big Business que él lucía orgulloso. Reunió el apoyo de numerosos peces gordos de la política sureña, atraídos por su conversión de demócrata a republicano que encarnaba la evolución de la región. Renunció a Iowa y New Hampshire, y dirigió todos sus recursos a Carolina del Sur. Tuvo al Senador Strom Thurmond recorriendo el estado con él. Tuvo el apoyo del único ex Gobernador republicano del estado, de los alcaldes de las principales ciudades, y de los periódicos más importantes. Trabajó duro, se subió a un bus y recorrió todos los condados, día tras día, doce horas al día, y gastó todo su botín... pero el día de la primaria Reagan se hizo con el 55% de los votos y Connally llegó a duras penas al 30%. 12 millones de dólares gastados para ganar 1 delegado.
Reagan tuvo a Atwater trabajando para él, acusando a Connally de pretender comprar el voto de los negros, y repartiendo ejemplares de A Texan Looks At LBJ, un libro que exponía los trapos sucios de Lyndon Johnson y contenía más de una docena de referencias a Connally, que había sido amigo íntimo y aliado político del ex Presidente.
Eso sin duda jugó en contra de Connally, pero la verdadera razón de su derrota la había comprendido días antes de la primaria. Una mañana, su mujer Nellie entabló un diálogo con un tipo en un pequeño aeropuerto del estado. Le habló de su marido y le pidió su voto. El tipo se le quedó mirando y le dijo: "Yo estoy con Ronald Reagan. Siempre he estado con Ronald Reagan. Siempre estaré con Ronald Reagan desde la cabeza hasta los dedos de los pies."
Reagan tenía menos dinero pero era el candidato preferido de los republicanos de base. Había dejado huella en el 76 con una campaña que le llevó hasta la convención, y todos los que entonces salieron a votarle estaban con él en el 80. Llevaban cuatro años esperando una segunda oportunidad y su compromiso con el candidato era casi religioso.
Romney vivió en 2008 la experiencia de Bush y Connally: su dinero, organización, disciplina y profesionalidad no pudieron hacer frente en Iowa, New Hampshire y Carolina del Sur a dos candidatos mucho peor financiados. Este año la lección es extensible también a Huntsman, Barbour, Pawlenty o Daniels, frente a los Huckabee, Bachmann o Palin de turno, candidatos con una primera base de apoyos limitada pero muy intensa y leal.
Caras nuevas
En una entrevista al Washington Post, el Senador Jim DeMint predijo este fin de semana que con la campaña más avanzada surgirán nuevos candidatos, cree que gobernadores.
(...) “If no one is an immediate frontrunner, I think you might see a whole new cast of Republican candidates in the next few months ... there are a number of names bubbling around, particularly governors who have realized that doing some basic common sense things tends to inspire Americans.” (...)
Y Chris Cillizza se ha puesto a indagar en la lista de gobernadores republicanos:
(...) Of the 25 Republican governors, 20 of them were elected or appointed in 2009 and 2010. That relative newness makes it difficult — rhetorically and organizationally -- for any of the 20 to quickly pivot to a presidential race.
The obvious exception to that rule is New Jersey’s Chris Christie who, in less than two years on the job, has emerged as a straight-talking superstar for Republicans nationally. While Christie has repeatedly said he is not ready to make a run for president, there are still many in the party who believe — hope may be a more accurate word — that Christie will reconsider if the field appears weak by the summer.
We’ve written before that if he ran, Christie would occupy an obvious slot in the field as a tea-party aligned economic conservative, a profile that would obviously appeal to DeMint who would have occupied similar space in the race had he chosen to pursue a bid.
It still seems an unlikely prospect, however. One plugged-in Republican operative suggested that there is a “10 percent” chance that Christie runs.
Beyond Christie, the only other potential candidate who could immediately step into the race with a real following is Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker who endeared himself to Republicans nationwide with his stand-off against organized labor earlier this year. But having just weathered that traumatic political moment, it’s hard to imagine Walker moving into the presidential field.
Other newly-elected governors with bright futures at the national level — South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, Nevada’s Brian Sandoval, New Mexico’s Susana Martinez,Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett — seem content to let their stars rise more slowly.
So, if you assume that none of the newest governors will run, you are left with five people: Govs. Rick Perry (Texas), Mitch Daniels (Ind.), Bobby Jindal (La.), Dave Heineman (Neb.) and Butch Otter (Idaho) — all of whom were elected in 2007 or earlier.
Neither Heineman nor Otter have any sort of national profile. Jindal is actively running for a second term this November, making it impossible for him to simultaneously put the pieces of a presidential bid together. Perry is intriguing but might struggle with being viewed as the second coming of George W. Bush. Plus, Perry’s 2010 campaign manager Rob Johnson and longtime political consigliere Dave Carney have signed on with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign, moves that suggest the Texas governor isn’t likely to be a surprise late entrant into the race.
That leaves Daniels, who has been actively considering the race for months. Daniels keep his own counsel — a rarity in politics — and so no one really knows what he is thinking about the race. But, from his own public pronouncements as well as those from his wife, we do know that Daniels’ family is not entirely on board — to put it kindly — with the idea of a national bid. Daniels has also been pilloried of late by social conservatives for his now infamous call for a “truce” on social issues. (...)
(...) “If no one is an immediate frontrunner, I think you might see a whole new cast of Republican candidates in the next few months ... there are a number of names bubbling around, particularly governors who have realized that doing some basic common sense things tends to inspire Americans.” (...)
Y Chris Cillizza se ha puesto a indagar en la lista de gobernadores republicanos:
(...) Of the 25 Republican governors, 20 of them were elected or appointed in 2009 and 2010. That relative newness makes it difficult — rhetorically and organizationally -- for any of the 20 to quickly pivot to a presidential race.
The obvious exception to that rule is New Jersey’s Chris Christie who, in less than two years on the job, has emerged as a straight-talking superstar for Republicans nationally. While Christie has repeatedly said he is not ready to make a run for president, there are still many in the party who believe — hope may be a more accurate word — that Christie will reconsider if the field appears weak by the summer.
We’ve written before that if he ran, Christie would occupy an obvious slot in the field as a tea-party aligned economic conservative, a profile that would obviously appeal to DeMint who would have occupied similar space in the race had he chosen to pursue a bid.
It still seems an unlikely prospect, however. One plugged-in Republican operative suggested that there is a “10 percent” chance that Christie runs.
Beyond Christie, the only other potential candidate who could immediately step into the race with a real following is Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker who endeared himself to Republicans nationwide with his stand-off against organized labor earlier this year. But having just weathered that traumatic political moment, it’s hard to imagine Walker moving into the presidential field.
Other newly-elected governors with bright futures at the national level — South Carolina’s Nikki Haley, Nevada’s Brian Sandoval, New Mexico’s Susana Martinez,Pennsylvania’s Tom Corbett — seem content to let their stars rise more slowly.
So, if you assume that none of the newest governors will run, you are left with five people: Govs. Rick Perry (Texas), Mitch Daniels (Ind.), Bobby Jindal (La.), Dave Heineman (Neb.) and Butch Otter (Idaho) — all of whom were elected in 2007 or earlier.
Neither Heineman nor Otter have any sort of national profile. Jindal is actively running for a second term this November, making it impossible for him to simultaneously put the pieces of a presidential bid together. Perry is intriguing but might struggle with being viewed as the second coming of George W. Bush. Plus, Perry’s 2010 campaign manager Rob Johnson and longtime political consigliere Dave Carney have signed on with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign, moves that suggest the Texas governor isn’t likely to be a surprise late entrant into the race.
That leaves Daniels, who has been actively considering the race for months. Daniels keep his own counsel — a rarity in politics — and so no one really knows what he is thinking about the race. But, from his own public pronouncements as well as those from his wife, we do know that Daniels’ family is not entirely on board — to put it kindly — with the idea of a national bid. Daniels has also been pilloried of late by social conservatives for his now infamous call for a “truce” on social issues. (...)
martes, 29 de marzo de 2011
Pawlenty en Morning Joe (MSNBC)
Ha dicho que la actuación de Obama en Libia ha sido "tímida y tardía" y que ahora el Presidente se encuentra atrapado por haber subordinado el poder y los intereses de EEUU a la Liga Árabe y las Naciones Unidas.
"Una de las cosas que dije el 7 de marzo es que deberíamos haber establecido ya la zona de exclusión aérea. Lo apoyé. Creo que la misión humanitaria y las acciones para evitar una carnicería eran importantes. Pero tener en cuenta que entonces los rebeldes tenían un sustancial momentum, tenían a Gadafi contra las cuerdas, estaba hablando abiertamente, según las informaciones de la prensa, de abandonar el poder voluntariamente. Y creo que la amenaza de la puesta en práctica de una zona de exclusión aérea entonces hubiera abierto para los rebeldes una rápida y relativamente más fácil ventana de oportunidad para deshacerse de Gadafi."
También ha hablado de Siria: "Tienes a Bashar Assad. Este es un individuo al que muchos en Estados Unidos consideraron equivocadamente un reformista, un agente de cambio. Es un terrorista, un asesino. Si yo fuera Presidente, no hubiera reconocido y legitimado a esta administración siria, una de las más siniestras del mundo, enviando un embajador a Siria, como hizo el Presidente Obama. Yo empezaría por retirar al embajador, denunciaría públicamente a Siria, y hablaría al pueblo sirio sobre cómo Estados Unidos comparte sus esperanzas y sueños."
Y ha dicho que no comparte los esfuerzos de Donald Trump para exigir el certificado de nacimiento de Obama: "No creo que debieramos plantear ese asunto. Creo que el Presidente Obama nació en los Estados Unidos."
"Una de las cosas que dije el 7 de marzo es que deberíamos haber establecido ya la zona de exclusión aérea. Lo apoyé. Creo que la misión humanitaria y las acciones para evitar una carnicería eran importantes. Pero tener en cuenta que entonces los rebeldes tenían un sustancial momentum, tenían a Gadafi contra las cuerdas, estaba hablando abiertamente, según las informaciones de la prensa, de abandonar el poder voluntariamente. Y creo que la amenaza de la puesta en práctica de una zona de exclusión aérea entonces hubiera abierto para los rebeldes una rápida y relativamente más fácil ventana de oportunidad para deshacerse de Gadafi."
También ha hablado de Siria: "Tienes a Bashar Assad. Este es un individuo al que muchos en Estados Unidos consideraron equivocadamente un reformista, un agente de cambio. Es un terrorista, un asesino. Si yo fuera Presidente, no hubiera reconocido y legitimado a esta administración siria, una de las más siniestras del mundo, enviando un embajador a Siria, como hizo el Presidente Obama. Yo empezaría por retirar al embajador, denunciaría públicamente a Siria, y hablaría al pueblo sirio sobre cómo Estados Unidos comparte sus esperanzas y sueños."
Y ha dicho que no comparte los esfuerzos de Donald Trump para exigir el certificado de nacimiento de Obama: "No creo que debieramos plantear ese asunto. Creo que el Presidente Obama nació en los Estados Unidos."
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Dos nuevos fichajes de Huntsman en NH
Lo adelanta el Union Leader:
(...) The Granite Status has learned that Paul Collins, a nearly 30-year political campaign organizer and former congressional and U.S. Senate chief of staff, and Brad Blais, a key player in U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass' 2010 campaign, are joining the Horizon PAC as consultants to organize its political operations in the first-in-the-nation primary state.
(...) The Granite Status learned independently that Collins and Blais will be the key personnel in the leadoff primary state along with former Executive Councilor Peter Spaulding, who disclosed earlier this year that he would support a Huntsman candidacy. Former state employment security chief Richard Brothers has also been mentioned in some reports as a potential Huntsman backer.
(...) Collins has been involved in New Hampshire politics since 1982, when he worked for the campaign, and then in the administration, of then-Gov. John H. Sununu, who, ironically, emerged recently as a fierce Huntsman critic.
(...) Collins from 1996 to 2008 was campaign manager and chief of staff for Sununu's son _ U.S. Rep. and, later, U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu. After the younger Sununu lost a reelection bid in 2008, Collins re-joined John H. Sununu in early 2009 as executive director of the Republican State Committee.
In 2010, Collins worked as a top advisor to U.S. Senate candidate Bill Binnie. He left Binnie's campaign to work in a similar capacity for Republican U.S. House candidate Sean Mahoney. Both Binnie and Mahoney lost their bids in Republican primaries last September.
Blais worked with Collins on John E. Sununu's 2008 campaign, as an intern at the state Republican Party and then on the Mahoney campaign. Last fall, he was field director for U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass' campaign, managing day-to-day operations and the building of a field organization. (...)
(...) The Granite Status has learned that Paul Collins, a nearly 30-year political campaign organizer and former congressional and U.S. Senate chief of staff, and Brad Blais, a key player in U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass' 2010 campaign, are joining the Horizon PAC as consultants to organize its political operations in the first-in-the-nation primary state.
(...) The Granite Status learned independently that Collins and Blais will be the key personnel in the leadoff primary state along with former Executive Councilor Peter Spaulding, who disclosed earlier this year that he would support a Huntsman candidacy. Former state employment security chief Richard Brothers has also been mentioned in some reports as a potential Huntsman backer.
(...) Collins has been involved in New Hampshire politics since 1982, when he worked for the campaign, and then in the administration, of then-Gov. John H. Sununu, who, ironically, emerged recently as a fierce Huntsman critic.
(...) Collins from 1996 to 2008 was campaign manager and chief of staff for Sununu's son _ U.S. Rep. and, later, U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu. After the younger Sununu lost a reelection bid in 2008, Collins re-joined John H. Sununu in early 2009 as executive director of the Republican State Committee.
In 2010, Collins worked as a top advisor to U.S. Senate candidate Bill Binnie. He left Binnie's campaign to work in a similar capacity for Republican U.S. House candidate Sean Mahoney. Both Binnie and Mahoney lost their bids in Republican primaries last September.
Blais worked with Collins on John E. Sununu's 2008 campaign, as an intern at the state Republican Party and then on the Mahoney campaign. Last fall, he was field director for U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass' campaign, managing day-to-day operations and the building of a field organization. (...)
"En algún momento... no necesariamente en 2012"
Son palabras de Peter Huntsman sobre las ambiciones presidenciales de su hermano Jon:
(...) “There is a real need in this country for a politician who can have a focus on economic progress and economic development and deficit reduction,” said Peter Huntsman, chief executive officer of Huntsman Corp., the Salt Lake City-based chemicals company their father founded.
“He is interested at some point” in running for president, he said. “That’s not necessarily in 2012.” (...)
(...) “There is a real need in this country for a politician who can have a focus on economic progress and economic development and deficit reduction,” said Peter Huntsman, chief executive officer of Huntsman Corp., the Salt Lake City-based chemicals company their father founded.
“He is interested at some point” in running for president, he said. “That’s not necessarily in 2012.” (...)
lunes, 28 de marzo de 2011
Nacido en NY el 14 de junio de 1946
Donald Trump ha facilitado su certificado de nacimiento a Newsmax y se ha sumado a las voces que exigen al Presidente Obama que haga lo mismo para probar que nació en EEUU, condición exigida para ocupar legalmente la Casa Blanca.
"Me ha llevado una hora conseguir mi certificado de nacimiento. Es inconcebible que, después de cuatro años de cuestionamientos, el Presidente todavía no haya presentado su certificado de nacimiento. Símplemente pido al Presidente Obama que enseñe al público su certificado de nacimiento. ¿Por qué le está concediendo tanta importancia a todo esto? (...) Fui a las mejores ecuelas y fui un buen estudiante, y es inconcebible para mi cerebro que ningún doctor, ninguna enfermera, nadie haya dado el paso de verificar el nacimiento, sólo el Gobernador. ¿Él lo recuerda? ¿El Gobernador? ¿Un nacimiento de hace 50 años? ¡Vamos! Se está tirando por un puente por su partido. (...) Ronald Reagan, George Bush presentaron su certificado de nacimiento. ¿Por qué Obama no lo hace?"
Los captadores de fondos de Pawlenty
Chris Cillizza (Washington Post) nos presenta a las 16 personas que manejarán las finanzas de la campaña presidencial del Gobernador Tim Pawlenty:
(...) Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty will unveil a 16-person fundraising team today, as he prepares for the gargantuan task of raising the tens of millions of dollars he’ll likely need to win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
The finance operation will be overseen by Brian Haley, who is currently serving as national finance director for Pawlenty’s Freedom First PAC and previously held that same title for Sen. John McCain’s leadership political action committee.
Katie McBreen will be Haley’s deputy, coming off a successful stint as finance director for Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran’s 2010 campaign. McBreen previously worked for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 2008 presidential bid.
(...) Here’s the full list — with titles and geographic focuses — for Pawlenty’s finance team:
Brian Haley, national finance director
Kate McBreen, deputy national finance director
Trisha Hamm, Minnesota finance director
Chrissy Scherer, associate finance director
Andrea Evans, finance consultant (Arizona)
Paige Lance Hahn, senior finance consultant (Mid-Atlantic)
Ann Herberger, senior finance consultant
Pam Kinsey, senior finance consultant (Midwest)
Paige Marriott, senior finance consultant
Alison McIntosh, senior finance consultant (Texas)
Rick Nelson, finance consultant (Minnesota and national)
Gretchen Picotte, senior finance consultant (Florida)
Katie Behnke/Kristin Strohm, finance consultants (Colorado)
Cassandra Vandenberg, senior finance consultant (California)
Shanna Woodbury, finance consultant (Minnesota and national)
Sue Walden, finance consultant (Texas) (...)
(...) Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty will unveil a 16-person fundraising team today, as he prepares for the gargantuan task of raising the tens of millions of dollars he’ll likely need to win the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.
The finance operation will be overseen by Brian Haley, who is currently serving as national finance director for Pawlenty’s Freedom First PAC and previously held that same title for Sen. John McCain’s leadership political action committee.
Katie McBreen will be Haley’s deputy, coming off a successful stint as finance director for Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran’s 2010 campaign. McBreen previously worked for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s 2008 presidential bid.
(...) Here’s the full list — with titles and geographic focuses — for Pawlenty’s finance team:
Brian Haley, national finance director
Kate McBreen, deputy national finance director
Trisha Hamm, Minnesota finance director
Chrissy Scherer, associate finance director
Andrea Evans, finance consultant (Arizona)
Paige Lance Hahn, senior finance consultant (Mid-Atlantic)
Ann Herberger, senior finance consultant
Pam Kinsey, senior finance consultant (Midwest)
Paige Marriott, senior finance consultant
Alison McIntosh, senior finance consultant (Texas)
Rick Nelson, finance consultant (Minnesota and national)
Gretchen Picotte, senior finance consultant (Florida)
Katie Behnke/Kristin Strohm, finance consultants (Colorado)
Cassandra Vandenberg, senior finance consultant (California)
Shanna Woodbury, finance consultant (Minnesota and national)
Sue Walden, finance consultant (Texas) (...)
Cuartel general de Obama en el One Prudential Plaza
Según Lynn Sweet (Chicago Sun-Times):
(...) The Obama 2012 national headquarters will be at One Prudential Plaza, I've learned exclusively, a skyscraper whose south front faces Grant Park, where President Obama held his 2008 election night victory rally.
The building -- completed in 1955 and known to Chicagoans by its original name, the Prudential Building -- at 130 E. Randolph is a very short walk from Obama's 2008 headquarters, which was on the 11th floor of 233 N. Michigan. Obama's team has been scouting locations in Chicago for weeks and settled on the Prudential Building in part because of the ability to make it a secure location.
A source inside the Obama operation confirmed what I learned on my own -- that the headquarters will be in the Prudential Building and that a skeleton crew of Obama 2012 staffers are already in Chicago, including Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina. The headquarters is not yet up and running; it will open for business at a later date.
I've also learned that when President Obama hits Chicago for a Democratic National Committee event April 14, it will be one of a series of gatherings around the country in April -- at Democrats' best donor cities -- kicking off the Obama 2012 campaign.
The DNC is running Obama's political operation until Obama registers as a 2012 presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission, which will allow him to create a committee to accept political contributions. Until the Obama 2012 committee is formed, the DNC is raising money that will benefit Obama's drive for a second term. (...)
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