16: Hillary, una piedra en el camino de Cuomo

(Foto: AP)

The New York Times nos cuenta que el entorno del Gobernador de Nueva York ha estado sondeando a algunos líderes del partido, concretamente sondearon a un líder de la comunidad afroamericana durante la convención de Charlotte, para saber con qué apoyos contarían si Hillary también se presenta a las elecciones de 2016:

Mrs. Clinton complicates Mr. Cuomo’s ambitions in several ways. Despite the fact that she hails from Illinois, she is now viewed as a New Yorker and commands deep loyalty from the state’s Democratic establishment. And Mr. Cuomo, 54, reveres her husband, former President Bill Clinton; he views Mr. Clinton as a mentor who helped him begin a career in politics, according to Cuomo friends and associates.

The focus on Mrs. Clinton among Mr. Cuomo’s advisers was apparent during the Democratic convention. At one point, a key adviser to the governor approached the Rev. Al Sharpton to ask him if he would support Mrs. Clinton were she to run in 2016, according to a prominent New York Democrat with direct knowledge of the conversation.

“They are totally trying to figure out what she would do,” said the Democrat, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid alienating Mr. Cuomo.

Another Democrat close to Mr. Cuomo said the situation was making the Cuomo camp cranky, in part because the governor, a skilled strategic thinker, did not like to be captive to others’ ambitions.

And a top fund-raiser for Mr. Cuomo put it this way: “He’s got a former first lady and former New York senator in his sandbox, and that’s a mess for him. He’s got to wait and see what Hillary will do.”

(...) “In terms of the psychodrama of politics, it does not get any better than this,” the Democrat close to Mr. Cuomo said.

While Mr. Cuomo has deep affection for Mr. Clinton and calls him for advice, his relationship with Mrs. Clinton is less personal.

(...) In the weeks leading up to the convention, Mr. Cuomo, who served as the nation’s housing secretary under President Clinton, turned down offers from old associates of his father, former Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, and former colleagues from the federal housing department to talk quietly about his presidential prospects, as other prominent Democrats, like Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland, began planting the seeds for possible candidacies, according to a close Cuomo adviser.

Among those yearning for a Cuomo presidential campaign in 2016, a divide has emerged: some suggest that if Mrs. Clinton ran, the governor’s loyalty to Mr. Clinton would prevent him from joining the field.

But others reject the notion that Mrs. Clinton poses a serious obstacle to Mr. Cuomo, saying she is enjoying a political honeymoon right now but still has many of the weaknesses that plagued her in the past, including a polarizing image.

By contrast, they say, Mr. Cuomo is a fresh face whom Democratic officials, donors and activists will naturally want to court — provided that he wins re-election in 2014, when Mrs. Clinton will most likely be out of a job in politics.

Obama en Milwaukee, Wisconsin

El Presidente visitó ayer un estado que en 2008 ganó por 14 puntos y que no ha votado por un republicano en unas presidenciales desde la avalancha de Reagan en 1984.

Obama llevaba 220 días sin pisar Wisconsin. Desde su última visita en febrero, Romney ha hecho en el estado 17 eventos en 9 días completos.

Team Obama no contaba con tener que defender esos 10 votos electorales en la recta final de la campaña. Empezó a comprar anuncios en Wisconsin hace solo 10 días y Joe Biden ha estado allí dos veces en las últimas tres semanas.

Paul Ryan en Orlando, Florida

Jeb Bush acompaña a Paul Ryan al Versailles (vídeo)

Biden en Concord, New Hampshire

Jeb Bush acompaña a Paul Ryan al Versailles

(Foto: Innerarity/REUTERS)

Jeb Bush y todo el pelotón cubano-americano con Ileana Ros-Lehtinen y los hermanos Díaz-Balart a la cabeza han acompañado esta mañana a Paul Ryan en una visita al célebre Restaurante Versailles, en la Calle Ocho de la Pequeña Habana, en Miami.

16: Chris Christie se deja ver en Iowa

El Gobernador Chris Christie, de New Jersey, que el año pasado recibió en Trenton a varias delegaciones de republicanos de Iowa pidiéndole que se presentara a Presidente, recibió ayer una calurosa bienvenida en el estado del ojo de halcón.

Por la noche habló en una recaudación de fondos del GOP estatal en Altoona y antes ofreció su endorsement al Congresista Steve King en Sioux City. No habló de 2016 o 2020, pero cuando un político recorre 2,000 kilómetros para hacer campaña por un Congresista (uno entre 435) que tiene la reelección asegurada es porque algo quiere - el endorsement de King suele ser uno de los botines más preciados por los candidatos presidenciales republicanos en los Caucus de Iowa.

Romney defiende a su campaña

CBS ha publicado un adelanto de una entrevista que Scott Pelley le hizo hace dos días al candidato republicano en su avión de campaña para 60 Minutes. En el fragmento, Pelley le pregunta si su campaña necesita un cambio de rumbo, a lo que Romney responde que "no necesita un cambio. Tenemos una campaña que está empatada con un Presidente titular de los Estados Unidos." Y recuerda que la campaña no es responsable de sus patinazos, como lo del 47%. "No fue la campaña. Ese fui yo. Tengo una campaña muy efectiva que está haciendo un muy buen trabajo. Pero no todo lo que digo es elegante. Y quiero dejarlo muy claro, quiero ayudar al 100% de los americanos."

Romney en Las Vegas, Nevada

Obama en Woodbridge, Virginia

Romney publica su declaración de impuestos de 2011 y un resumen de los 20 años anteriores

Romney for President Inc.:

Regarding the newly-filed 2011 Tax Return:

• In 2011, the Romneys paid $1,935,708 in taxes on $13,696,951 in mostly investment income.

• The Romneys’ effective tax rate for 2011 was 14.1%.

• The Romneys donated $4,020,772 to charity in 2011, amounting to nearly 30% of their income.

• The Romneys claimed a deduction for $2.25 million of those charitable contributions.

• The Romneys’ generous charitable donations in 2011 would have significantly reduced their tax obligation for the year. The Romneys thus limited their deduction of charitable contributions to conform to the Governor's statement in August, based upon the January estimate of income, that he paid at least 13% in income taxes in each of the last 10 years.

(...) Regarding the PWC letter covering the Romneys’ tax filings over 20 years, from 1990 – 2009:

• In each year during the entire 20-year period, the Romneys owed both state and federal income taxes.

• Over the entire 20-year period, the average annual effective federal tax rate was 20.20%.

• Over the entire 20-year period, the lowest annual effective federal personal tax rate was 13.66%.

• Over the entire 20-year period, the Romneys gave to charity an average of 13.45% of their adjusted gross income.

• Over the entire 20-year period, the total federal and state taxes owed plus the total charitable donations deducted represented 38.49% of total AGI.

Romney, respaldado sobre el terreno por una operación conservadora mucho mayor que la de 2008

(Foto: Jim Young / Reuters)

The Washington Post nos habla de la operación conservadora (más allá de Boston y el RNC) para movilizar votantes a favor del GOP que puede resultar en entre dos y tres puntos adicionales a lo que el candidato consiga por sí mismo:

In the key battleground states, Obama’s celebrated network of organizing experts and neighborhood captains is being challenged by a conservative coalition that includes the National Rifle Association, the billionaire-backed Americans for Prosperity and a newly muscular College Republicans organization with a $16 million budget.

(...) In Florida, for example, Republican legislation, since overturned in the courts, effectively dampened pro-Democratic voter registration efforts during critical months in 2011 and 2012, resulting in registration gains for Republicans in the crucial Tampa Bay area since the 2008 election.

In Ohio, the evangelical group behind a successful anti-same-sex-marriage amendment that helped mobilize conservative voters in 2004 says it has a network of 10,000 churches and a database of millions of rural voters who will be targeted with in-person visits and voter guides. And in Wisconsin, a traditionally Democratic state, conservatives have built a house-by-house turnout machine already tested in the successful campaign to fight a union-backed recall of GOP Gov. Scott Walker in June.

Several recent stumbles by Romney have provoked a stream of media coverage about his chances in November and Obama’s widening lead in recent polls. But on the ground, the battle remains close. Experts say that if Obama’s lead in key states extends beyond a few percentage points, even the most effective field operation on the right may not be enough to prevent a Romney loss. But, they say, the operation can add two to three points to the Republican’s total and, in a close contest, that could be a significant difference.

(...) One of the major players on the right is Americans for Prosperity, a group co-founded by conservative billionaire David Koch. The group plans to spend $125 million on the 2012 campaign, half of it devoted to field organizing in political battlegrounds. AFP has 116 staff members on the ground targeting 9 million voters the group has found to be “up in the air” about how to assess Obama’s economic record, said its president, Tim Phillips.

The group has honed many of its techniques in Wisconsin, where it spent millions on the effort to keep Walker in office. The group there is deploying a new smartphone application, Prosperity Knocks, to guide canvassers to the right doors. Of the group’s 120,000 members in Wisconsin, it has 4,000 super activists, dubbed “Prosperity Champions,” who have participated in multiple actions, the group says.

“This is a totally new ballgame,” said Luke Hilgemann, the Wisconsin director for AFP, who oversees 12 full-time staff members and thousands of volunteers in his state. “We’re matching the left and exceeding them in lots of things that we’re doing.”

(...) In Ohio and other states, an emerging force in conservative voter outreach is the College Republican National Committee, which has expanded this year to 63 paid, full-time field staff members and has formed a joint super PAC with American Crossroads, the group founded in part by Karl Rove, who was an adviser to President George W. Bush, to target young voters.

Gun enthusiasts will be hearing with greater intensity this year from the NRA, which spent an estimated $30 million in 2008 and plans to focus less this year on television advertising and more on voter recruiting. The group has hired 25 campaign field directors and posted them in battleground states, while it has begun churning out hundreds of thousands of pieces of targeted literature, said Chris Cox, the group’s chief political strategist.

"Salvará"

Marco Rubio asegura a los jubilados que Romney fortalecerá el Medicare. El anuncio, que se está emitiendo en Florida, también ha salido en inglés.

Obama gastó más que Romney en agosto; Super PACs republicanos gastaron más que Super PACs demócratas

The Wall Street Journal:

President Barack Obama and the Democratic National Committee spent more than $122 million on his re-election campaign in August—about $10 million more than Mitt Romney and the Republican National Committee —according to detailed fundraising reports released late Thursday.

(...) Mr. Obama's campaign spent some $50 million on ads last month, with heavy investments in Virginia, Ohio and Florida, three battleground states where he continues to lead in the polls.

Mr. Romney's campaign and the RNC spent $112 million during the month. The campaign alone spent less than $14 million on ads, according an analysis of federal filings. Overall, however, Mr. Romney and a group of pro-Republican super PACs have spent more on television than have Mr. Obama and his backers.

Romney empezó septiembre con 168.5 millones; Obama, con 125.2 millones

Team Romney arrancó la campaña por la elección general a comienzos de este mes con una importante ventaja financiera sobre Team Obama, según la Comisión Electoral federal (FEC).

Romney + RNC tenían en el banco 168.5 millones de dólares. Obama + DNC tenían 125.2 millones. 88.8 de los 125.2 millones de Obama son propiedad de su campaña, mientras que de la cantidad de Romney solo 50.4 millones pertenecen a su campaña y el resto es propiedad del RNC. Aunque a efectos prácticos es lo mismo, Obama tendrá más flexibilidad para decidir en solitario cómo, cuándo y dónde gastar, y Romney tendrá que acordar con el RNC.

Los documentos de la FEC también revelan que el Super PAC de Obama, Priorities USA Action, recaudó por primera vez en agosto más dinero que el Super PAC de Romney, Restore Our Future (10.1 millones frente a 7 millones).  Pero Restore Our Future sigue teniendo algo más de dinero en el banco (7.4 millones frente a 4.8 millones).

Los principales donantes de Restore Our Future fueron Robert Parsons, dueño de una compañía de sitios web, y OdysseyRe Holdings, una compañía con sede en Connecticut, con 1 millón cada uno.

A Priorities USA Action donó 2 millones el millonario James Simons, de la industria de fondos de inversión de capital de riesgo, y el abogado Steve Mostyn y la empresaria de medios Anne Cox Chambers dieron 1 millón cada uno.

American Crossroads sigue siendo el Super PAC más potente con 9.4 millones recaudados en agosto y 32 millones en el banco. Entre sus donantes de agosto, los habituales: el constructor texano Bob Perry, el petrolero texano Clayton Williams, el propietario de caballos B. Wayne Hughes, entre otros.

Romney en Sarasota, Florida

Gran Encuentro con Barack Obama (Univisión)

El Presidente dijo que se postula a un segundo mandato porque todavía tiene trabajo que hacer.

Defiende que no aseguró que cumpliría todas las promesas realizadas en 2008, que lo único que aseguró fue que trabajaría duro para cumplirlas. Considera su mayor fracaso el no haber podido sacar adelante una reforma migratoria, de lo que culpó a la oposición republicana, y dijo a los hispanos que reelegirle en noviembre es el modo de obligar a la oposición a sentarse a negociar la reforma.

Acusó a Romney de no estar en contacto con la realidad si considera que la mitad del país quiere ser dependiente del gobierno.

Del ataque contra diplomáticos americanos en Libia dijo que están investigando y que todavía es pronto para saber si fue obra de Al Qaeda.

Ann Romney en Clive, Iowa

Ann Romney en Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Boston mira al Oeste

(Foto: Reuters)

En contra de lo que pensaban las dos campañas (¿os acordáis cuando Chicago hace un año decía que su nuevo mapa se apoyaría más en NV, CO, AZ que en OH?), en los últimos sondeos Colorado y Nevada están dando signos de ser más asequibles para Romney que Ohio o Virginia. Por ello, Boston y el RNC han decidido destinar allí más personal, tiempo y recursos.

ABC News:

With polls showing Mitt Romney locked in tight races with President Obama in Colorado and Nevada, the Republican National Committee — in conjunction with the Romney campaign — is beefing up its operation in the two western battlegrounds.

GOP officials tell ABC News that the RNC is “adding additional staff” in both states — some of whom are being re-assigned from their posts in New Mexico (though the officials noted they “are maintaining offices and staff” there.)

Colorado, with its nine electoral votes, and Nevada, with six, are shaping up to be two of the mostly closely contested states on the 2012 map. The latest polls give Obama only a slight edge in both places.

(...) The Republican presidential nominee will hold a public campaign event in Colorado this weekend for the first time since early August. And he heads to Nevada on Friday for an afternoon rally in Las Vegas. It will be his sixth trip to Nevada since April.

(...) GOP sources tell ABC they have already “passed the 1 million voter contact mark” in both states. In Nevada, Republicans say they have made “4 times more phone calls and 12 times more door knocks than this time in 2008″ and in Colorado: “4 times more phone calls and 6 times more door knocks than this time” four years ago.

La reelección contra pronóstico de Harry Reid en Nevada hace dos años llevó a muchos analistas a pensar que los demócratas tenían a Nevada definitivamente en el saco, pero tal vez todos nos olvidamos de que Reid es mormón, como el 12% de la población de Nevada, y entre la población electoralmente activa posiblemente sean más.

Qué anuncio conecta mejor y por qué

El encuestador Frank Luntz ha analizado dos recientes anuncios de tv de los dos candidatos.

Se pregunta por qué Romney no empezó hace un mes a emitir el spot titulado "The Romney Plan," que considera más efectivo que los anteriores (llega a marcar por encima del 60 entre los demócratas).

A Obama le advierte del peligro de ir siempre en negativo en lugar de responder a las preguntas que se hacen los votantes indecisos: quién parará el despilfarro en Washington, quién creará y salvaguardará empleos, y quién los entiende mejor.