Caucus de Nevada

El Partido Republicano de Nevada empezará a ofrecer resultados a través de twitter, a partir de las 8 pm (hora de la Costa Este), y el escrutinio se completará algunas horas después con los resultados de un recinto especial que votará a partir de las 10 pm.

Romney esperará resultados en el hotel Red Rock de Las Vegas. Gingrich dará una rueda de prensa en el famoso hotel Venetian de Las Vegas, que es propiedad de su mayor contribuyente, Sheldon Adelson. Ron Paul está ya en Minnesota, y Rick Santorum en Colorado.

Hoy no estaré actualizando porque es un caucus fácil de seguir, aunque largo. Como siempre, os dejo medios para seguir los resultados:

Escrutinio: NVGOP / CNN / NYT / POLITICO.com.

TV: CNN / CNN Live / C-SPAN.

Aquí tenéis la lista de los mejores twitteros políticos de Nevada.

Recordad todo lo que hay que saber del Caucus de Nevada y las 5 cosas que hay que mirar, según POLITICO.

Y os dejo también a la deliciosa Ann-Margret, una de las mujeres vivas más sexy del planeta, con Elvis Presley en 'Viva Las Vegas'. Dos instituciones en la ciudad del pecado.

Más resultados de pequeños recintos de Nevada

Peter Hamby (CNN):

Leader of precinct 7601 announces the final tally: "It's Mitt 40 ... to some others that were a lot less." (Paul 6, Newt 3, Santorum 1).

Romney wins Nevada precinct 7352 in a walk: Mitt 31, Ron Paul 5, Newt Gingrich 5, Rick Santorum 1.

Romney gana cómodamente en dos pequeños recintos de NV

CNN:

Ballots have been counted for one precinct caucusing at Becker Middle School in Las Vegas. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won precinct 3807 with 36 votes, followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who had 8 votes. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum both took 3 votes.

Before the ballots were cast, six people spoke on behalf of the candidates. Three spoke in favor of Paul, and three spoke for Romney.

After the speeches, ballots were distributed and voters made their picks.

The New York Times:

It was democracy in action for the 22 Republicans who gathered in Room 207 of Palo Verde High School on Saturday morning to caucus.

No one was in charge. Dr. Rob Fisher, an anesthesiologist, took it upon himself to walk down the hall and speak with officials organizing the 26 precincts caucusing at the high school, which is in an upscale part of Las Vegas called Summerlin. A Mormon church is one block away.

“I guess what I’m called is a precinct captain,’’ Dr. Fisher said when he returned. He explained that anyone present could speak on behalf of a candidate, in alphabetical order of their names on the ballot: Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

There were no speakers for Mr. Gingrich, Mr. Paul or Mr. Santorum.

Norm Jenkins, 72, who runs a vehicle leasing company, stood to speak for Mr. Romney. “I’m a businessman,’’ he began. “I think we need someone who has proved he is a leader, not only in turning companies around.’’

(...) Ballots were cast. The results were announced: 1 for Mr. Gingrich, 2 for Mr. Paul, 19 for Mr. Romney, 0 for Mr. Santorum.

No one seemed to know how that tally would translate into the votes at the state party convention, which would chose delegates for the national convention.

There was some surprise that Mr. Paul had not had received more votes.

“The Ron Paul people were much bigger and they spoke up last time” in 2008, Dr. Jenkins said.

En el centro de llamadas

Los voluntarios de Mitt Romney en Las Vegas dejaron los teléfonos por un momento para escuchar al candidato, que les pidió un último esfuerzo antes del caucus.

Los metódicos mormones

BuzzFeed:

How, exactly, have they gotten so organized?

"We heard about it from some friends in our [LDS] ward," said one woman standing outside a rally held in a Las Vegas hotel supply warehouse. "We're so glad we could make it." Another Mormon standing nearby chimed in, "Everyone we know is voting for Mitt!"

The secret to the grassroots success lies, in part, in the unique national structure and scrupulous record-keeping of the Utah-headquartered Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. While the church itself is politically neutral, it contains the structural groundwork for one of the most organized and effective voting blocs in the country—something Romney is poised to capitalize on.

In contrast with most other religions in the country, the Mormon Church is nationally organized in a strict, top-down fashion, like a corporation. Every congregation in the U.S. reports back to church headquarters in Salt Lake. Whenever an individual is baptized -- either as a child or as a convert -- local ministers take down the person’s name, address, phone number, and e-mail address, and feed the information into a national database maintained by officials in Salt Lake (and only accessible to certain church leaders).

From there, the individuals are assigned to geographically-determined congregations -- or “wards” -- of about 200-300, which they attend on Sundays. Their contact information is filtered into a local “ward list,” which is distributed to all local congregants for planning purposes--from coordinating Sunday school, to working out the logistics for church barbeques.

(...) The church expressly forbids using these directories for non-religious purposes, but that doesn’t deter many politically active Mormons from working their ward lists to get out the vote. Reports abound of members blasting out congregational e-mails soliciting support for partisan causes and candidates. One Southern California ward received several e-mails urging congregants to vote for an LDS politician running for local office. And in nastier example of the practice, ward lists in Alpine, Utah were used to spread an anonymous smear campaign against a candidate on the eve of a local election.

Several Mormons told BuzzFeed that as the 2012 primaries heated up, they started to see their fellow congregants use ward lists to organize local efforts for Romney.

(...) Exit polls in 2008 showed that about 25 percent of Nevada caucus-goers self-identified as Mormon -- and Romney won that primary handily. This time around, polling indicates that he’s headed for a similarly dominant victory, and if it happens, local Latter-day Saints will no doubt deserve a chunk of the credit.

Much like how Iowa’s Christian home-school vote advanced its own grassroots efforts for Mike Huckabee largely independently of his campaign, there’s no evidence that Team Romney is officially coordinating with Mormon congregations. But anecdotal evidence suggests that a highly motivated base of Mormon supporters has effectively taken advantage of the LDS infrastructure to help Romney.

Gingrich cambia la tradicional fiesta por una rueda de prensa

National Journal:

Instead of the traditional election night party, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will hold a press conference after the Nevada Caucus on Saturday, raising new speculation about his future in the race.

An e-mail sent to reporters on Saturday morning set the Las Vegas press conference for 11 p.m. to midnight Eastern time.

Gingrich has had a rough time on the trail ahead of the Nevada Caucus, the first presidential contest in the West. Sources in or close to his campaign gave reporters incorrect information that Donald Trump would endorse Gingrich (he endorsed rival Mitt Romney). Gingrich also missed a meeting with the Silver State's popular governor, Brian Sandoval, a Rick Perry supporter who was viewed as a possible Gingrich endorsement after Perry dropped out and endorsed the former House Speaker, according to The New York Times.

Maine empieza a votar, con Romney y Paul de favoritos

POLITICO.com:

With the spotlight on Nevada, most people have probably forgotten that Maine’s caucuses also begin today.

Most of the state’s caucuses will be held on Saturday, but they continue this week and the results won’t be announced until Feb. 11. Delegates won’t actually be awarded, however, until the state convention in May.

Up until this point, Ron Paul is the only GOP contender to have visited the state this cycle. Paul and Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who won the state four years ago, are considered the heavy favorites.

Maine Republicans say it’s a two-man race between Paul and Romney, one Romney is likely to win even though he has not yet personally visited the state in this presidential race.

Charlie Webster, the chair of the Maine Republican Party, said Romney is an established brand in Maine, his good reputation buttressed by his tenure as governor of nearby Massachusetts. He has also fundraised for the state GOP.

“Romney’s been here a lot. He was here during the last election cycle. He’s worked for the congressional candidates…he’s been around,” Webster said. “He actually has been here a lot — not in this cycle — but he’s pretty well known here.”

Romney, Webster said, “laid the foundation” early for a strong Maine showing, estimating that the two-time presidential candidate has visited the state more than 10 times since 2006.

(...) But Paul is attempting to better his third-place showing in Maine from 2008. His strategy is a laser-like focus on the caucus states that award delegates proportionally, allowing him to amass delegates even if he doesn’t finish first in a race.

On Paul’s trip to Maine the last week of January, as the streets of many towns were coated with snow, he steadily packed venues. His schedule focused on locations on or near college campuses, where he is a favorite of younger voters. He had a private meeting with Maine Gov. Paul LePage, a tea-party favorite. and nabbed the endorsement of L.L. Bean heiress Linda Bean.

Paul’s efforts shouldn’t be discounted, said Steve Abbott, a former chief of staff of staff to Maine U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, who ran for Maine governor in 2010.

“Ron Paul did very well in the last round of caucuses in 2008. It was definitely sort-of what you’re still seeing now: some college students, some disaffected conservatives, some libertarians,” he said. “I’d expect him to do very well, relatively, in these caucuses.”

Lo que hay que saber del Caucus de Nevada

Casi todos los recintos abrirán entre las 9 de la mañana y las 3 de la tarde (hora del Pacífico). El partido empezará a dar a conocer resultados de al menos 16 de los 17 condados a partir de las 5 de la tarde (hora del Pacífico, 8 de la noche en la Costa Este). El condado de Clark (Las Vegas) tendrá un caucus nocturno en uno de sus recintos, así que los resultados se darán a conocer horas más tarde.

Habrá unos 2,000 recintos de caucus por todo el estado. Sólo pueden participar los votantes que se hayan registrado como republicanos antes del 21 de enero. Hay 468,174 republicanos registrados, aproximadamente un 35% del total de votantes registrados, pero al ser caucuses, y en un mal día para un estado donde se trabaja especialmente los fines de semana, se espera una baja participación. En 2008 tomaron parte 44,315 votantes; para hoy los expertos vaticinan unos 50,000 votantes.

Esa baja participación favorece a Romney porque otorga mayor influencia a los mormones (hay 175,149 mormones en Nevada, desconozco cuántos de ellos son republicanos registrados pero en 2008 fueron más de una cuarta parte de los asistentes al caucus). El otro gran beneficiado por la baja pricipación puede ser Ron Paul, para quien desbancar a Gingrich en el segundo puesto sería un logro que le permitiría recuperar el protagonismo perdido después de sus cuartos puestos en Carolina del Sur y Florida.

El mapa de Nevada es muy simple. Tiene 17 condados pero sólo 2 tienen peso. El primero es el condado de Clark (Las Vegas), donde se concentra el 71% de la población, y de donde salió el 54% de los votos en el caucus de hace cuatro años. Romney ganó entonces el condado con un 58%. El otro condado que hay que seguir es Washoe (Reno-Sparks), el segundo más poblado, de tendencia más conservadora. El 85% de los recintos del caucus se localizan en estos dos condados.

Nevada reparte 28 delegados que se distribuirán proporcionalmente.

Cathy McMorris Rodgers, en la lista de vicepresidenciables republicanos

The Daily Caller:

Although largely unknown outside her district in eastern Washington state, Republican Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers could be the next U.S. vice president.

First elected in 2004, McMorris Rodgers is now in her second term as vice chairman of the Republican Conference, which makes her the highest-ranking Republican woman on Capitol Hill. She has built a significant amount of behind-the-scenes clout, and has become one of her party’s most influential leaders on issues like international bailouts, earmark reform and the fight against Obamacare.

McMorris Rodgers also has the kind of compelling life story that political operatives always look for. The daughter of produce farmers who operated a fruit stand, she was the first member of her family to attend college. She earned her MBA from the University of Washington in 2002. By the age of 24, she was a member of the state House of Representatives.

Married to a retired U.S. Navy commander, McMorris Rodgers is also one of only eight women to have ever given birth while serving in Congress, and the only woman who has done it twice.

Her first child, Cole, was born a month premature and was diagnosed with Down syndrome. That experience led her to form a bipartisan Congressional Down Syndrome Caucus, which educates lawmakers about the disorder and aims to protect Americans who have it.

(...) Many big names have been floated for the Republicans’ vice presidential slot this year, but GOP candidates have tended more towards dark horse picks in recent decades — like Quayle, Palin and Dick Cheney. As a young conservative well known by the press if not the public, McMorris Rodgers is a contradiction: a familiar outsider, a seasoned political pro working just under the radar.

(...) Having a vice presidential nominee from a western state could also be an asset on a Republican ticket, [veteran Republican strategist Kellyanne] Conway argued.

“The West will be a battleground,” she said. “If you have somebody on the ticket from the western states, it might force Obama to spend more time out west when he’d really like to be in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and the Midwest.”

For now, though, McMorris Rodgers is staying coy about her vice presidential prospects.

“It’s hard for me to imagine the nominee would actually approach me, you know?” she told TheDC when asked whether she’d consider taking the job. “I think I’ll just leave it at that, and we’ll see where it goes.”

Un dato: apoya a Romney desde el año pasado.

Gingrich explica por qué no felicitó a Romney en FL

Newt Gingrich en Situation Room (CNN): "Gastaron 5 veces más que yo para textualmente, 'destruir a Newt Gingrich'. Creo que eso no se merece felicitaciones. Creo que es reprensible. Creo que es deshonesto y vegronzoso."

Romney en Henderson, Nevada

Ron Paul en Piers Morgan Tonight (CNN)

El caos amenaza la campaña de Gingrich

POLITICO.com:

Gingrich’s Nevada campaign, in other words, is a mess.

For a candidate who vows to fight on until the Tampa convention, with many miles to go before a nominee is selected, his operation here and in the next few states after this isn’t likely to inspire much confidence in his ability to compete with Mitt Romney.

With just one day to go before the Nevada caucuses, his campaign isn’t using its most potent weapon: Gingrich himself. The former House speaker used to hold daily press conferences to beat up on Mitt Romney, but did only one this week. The drumbeat of daily appearances has slowed dramatically.

The campaign is mostly bumbling around the Silver State, scheduling events only to cancel them, spending virtually nothing on advertising or infrastructure and demonstrating an inability to drive a message. He hasn’t been endorsed by a single Nevada elected official and there are serious tensions between his state and national staff over scheduling.

“It shows how difficult it is to put a quick organization and quick schedule together and try to make the most of a four-day campaign,” Las Vegas-based GOP strategist Robert S. Uithoven said. “It’s a four-year campaign versus a four-day campaign here in Nevada.”

In an ominous sign for Gingrich, the problem isn’t confined to Nevada. He’s also flying by the seat of his pants in the next round of states that will vote on Tuesday — Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. He doesn’t have much infrastructure in the first two states — Gingrich hired a spokesman Thursday in Colorado — and isn’t even on the ballot in Missouri. His campaign has been unable to say if he’ll even visit those states ahead of their votes.

Amerikanuak

Elko, Nevada, una tierra de vascos.

En familia

Mamá Fischer y sus cinco hijos dan la bienvenida a Romney en Elko, Nevada.

Romney en Sparks, Nevada

El Gobernador Romney evita ya hablar de sus rivales republicanos y pone toda su atención en Obama. Durante una visita a un almacén de suministros en Sparks, el candidato ha exculpado al Presidente de la crisis económica, pero sí le ha responsabilizado de haberla empeorado por haber dedicado su Presidencia a sacar adelante las prioridades de sus bases y sus amigos, en lugar de concentrarse en la economía.

Gingrich: Romney es un "Obama-lite"

De campaña en el Stoney's Rockin' Country de Las Vegas, el Speaker Gingrich ha dicho que Romney no es lo suficientemente bueno para ser nominado como candidato republicano. Lo ha descrito como un "Obama de poco peso", un "pequeño cupón para alimentos", y un "candidato aprobado por George Soros".

Tarkanian: Romney o Paul en Nevada

The Street:

Two Nevada polls have tapped Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich as the top two candidates in the state, but the Nevada Republican Party chair guesses the caucuses will come down to Romney and Ron Paul.

The most recent surveys could come as a surprise because Paul has campaigned heavily in the state -- where he finished second in the 2008 GOP presidential race -- while Gingrich hadn't open offices in Nevada until the past week.

"I hear a little bit more Mitt Romney chatter than Ron Paul, but the amount of tea party folks and libertarians that we have out here has just grown more and more," Amy Tarkanian said in an interview. "If I had to guess, it's going to be between one of those two, absolutely."

(...) Tarkanian also pointed out that Gingrich's ground game in Nevada seems to have been too little too late.

(...) "We have a huge Ron Paul following out here, and a huge Mitt Romney following. ... Those two never left our state," Tarkanian said. "They are both organized like I've never seen, they have coalitions put together like I've never seen; Ron Paul even has a [Latter-day Saint's Church] coalition ... so not all the Mormon's are going to go to Mitt Romney."

El Reno Gazette-Journal apoya a Romney

Reno Gazette-Journal:

Mitt Romney is the best — the only — choice for Nevada Republicans when they consider the four presidential contenders in their caucuses on Saturday.

Of those remaining, the former Massachusetts governor is the candidate who best represents the long-held values of Republican Party. Equally important, he is the one candidate who can be elected and the one best able to deal with the political realities in Washington, D.C., to accomplish what he and his party hope to accomplish if he’s elected president of the United States... Seguir leyendo

Es el periódico más vendido en el área metropolitana de Reno-Sparks. En 2008 ya apoyó a Romney. Pero su influencia entre los republicanos es menor porque tiene una línea editorial demócrata.

En Nevada el endorsement importante para un republicano es el del Las Vegas Review-Journal, el más vendido y el más conservador. Y Romney ya lo tiene. El Gazzette-Journal de Reno, el Las Vegas Sun, o el Nevada Appeal de Carson City, son de tendencia demócrata.

Caucus de Nevada: cada condado va a su rollo

First Read:

Frankly, the process is a bit of a joke: The caucus places start and stop at different times throughout the state. Every county but Clark County (Vegas) will be closed issues results by 8:00 pm ET, Clark County (except one location) closes has results at 10:00 pm ET, and one special caucus – at the Adelson Educational Complex -- closes has results between 11:00 pm and 11:30 pm ET to allow Jews observing the Sabbath to participate.

As the Atlantic’s Ball writes, “Each county was allowed to set its own caucus procedures this year, leading to a divergent array of start times and rules across the state… The bizarre arrangement leaves the door open to all kinds of campaign hijinks. Party officials say attendees at the evening caucus will have to sign an affidavit swearing that they didn't already vote earlier, and their names will be checked against the voter rolls.” There are 28 delegates at stake, and they will be divided up proportionally. Note: The earliest networks will call the race is at 10:00 pm ET, when the final caucus sites close.

Eventos de campaña en directo

Romney, Paul y Gingrich estarán en Nevada en este último día de campaña para el Caucus de mañana.

Gingrich está haciendo una apuesta arriesgada por Nevada. No está gastando dinero, pero sí tiempo. Todos sus actos de campaña de hoy serán en Las Vegas. Todas sus apariciones desde que salió de Florida han sido en Nevada. Mientras, Santorum dará hoy cinco mítines en Missouri, ya ha estado en días anteriores en Colorado, y se está anunciando por tv en Minnesota.

CNN Live emitirá en vivo estos actos de campaña:

10:30 AM America’s Choice 2012: Santorum rally
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum holds a rally for supporters in Hannibal, Missouri.

11:10 AM America’s Choice 2012: Romney roundtable
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney participates in a business roundtable in Sparks, Nevada.

01:30 PM America’s Choice 2012: Gingrich rally
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich rallies supporters in Las Vegas.

02:00 PM America’s Choice 2012: Santorum in Missouri
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum hosts a campaign rally in Fulton, Missouri.

03:00 PM America’s Choice 2012: Paul rallies supporters
GOP presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul participates in a rally with supporters in Pahrump, Nevada.

03:25 PM America’s Choice 2012: Romney rally
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney holds a grassroots rally with supporters in Elko, Nevada.

05:00 PM America’s Choice 2012: Santorum’s ‘conversation’
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum is joined by Focus on the Family’s James Dobson for “A Conversation on Faith, Freedom and the American Family” in Columbia, Missouri.

08:15 PM America’s Choice 2012: Romney gets out vote
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney participates in a get out the vote rally with supporters in Henderson, Nevada.

08:30 PM America’s Choice 2012: Santorum rally
GOP presidential candidate Rick Santorum hosts a campaign rally with supporters in Lee’s Summit, Missouri.

08:30 PM America’s Choice 2012: Paul in Las Vegas
GOP presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul greets some of his supporters in Las Vegas.

10:30 PM America’s Choice 2012: Gingrich at church
GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich visits the International Church of Las Vegas.