El tema central de al entrevista fue si sus libros y su reality show la ayudan o la perjudican de cara a una hipotética campaña presidencial.
viernes, 17 de diciembre de 2010
Thune: "estudiando detenidamente una candidatura presidencial"
John Thune concedió ayer una entrevista a la WKXL, una estación de radio de Concord, en New Hampshire. No aclaró demasiado en su primera intervención para un medio del estado que celebrará la primera primaria.
(...) Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) told a New Hampshire radio station Thursday he's taking a "hard look" at a run for president in 2012 and that there's "a very good possibility" he'll head to the Granite State early next year.
"We're taking a hard look at it," Thune said of a potential 2012 bid. "It's obviously a very big undertaking but, as you know, the Granite State figures prominently into anybody who wants to succeed at that task."
(...) "We don't have visits on the schedule right now, but we're still putting together next year's schedule, and that's a very good possibility," Thune said. "Obviously, the early states and New Hampshire's critically important role in the primary process is something we fully recognize. ... If we decide to move forward, you can expect to see us up there." (...)
(...) Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) told a New Hampshire radio station Thursday he's taking a "hard look" at a run for president in 2012 and that there's "a very good possibility" he'll head to the Granite State early next year.
"We're taking a hard look at it," Thune said of a potential 2012 bid. "It's obviously a very big undertaking but, as you know, the Granite State figures prominently into anybody who wants to succeed at that task."
(...) "We don't have visits on the schedule right now, but we're still putting together next year's schedule, and that's a very good possibility," Thune said. "Obviously, the early states and New Hampshire's critically important role in the primary process is something we fully recognize. ... If we decide to move forward, you can expect to see us up there." (...)
Saint Louis o Charlotte
Una de esas dos ciudades albergará la Convención Demócrata de 2012. Quedan descartadas Cleveland y Minneapolis, según fuentes internas del partido.
(...) With the site of the 2012 Democratic convention expected to be decided in a matter of weeks, insiders in the selection process believe it has come down to a choice between St. Louis and Charlotte, N.C., with the other two finalist cities, Minneapolis and Cleveland, all but out of the running.
All four have pluses and minuses when it comes to the logistical and political considerations that factor into the pick for a convention locale. But the party seems to be leaning against Minneapolis largely because Republicans held their 2008 convention in St. Paul. And while Ohio has battleground state allure, Cleveland's convention facilities are seen as subpar; the Nov. 2 defeat of Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland further hurt the city's chances.
Continúa (...)
(...) With the site of the 2012 Democratic convention expected to be decided in a matter of weeks, insiders in the selection process believe it has come down to a choice between St. Louis and Charlotte, N.C., with the other two finalist cities, Minneapolis and Cleveland, all but out of the running.
All four have pluses and minuses when it comes to the logistical and political considerations that factor into the pick for a convention locale. But the party seems to be leaning against Minneapolis largely because Republicans held their 2008 convention in St. Paul. And while Ohio has battleground state allure, Cleveland's convention facilities are seen as subpar; the Nov. 2 defeat of Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland further hurt the city's chances.
Continúa (...)
jueves, 16 de diciembre de 2010
Thune en Imus In The Morning
El Senador John Thune ha pasado por el programa de Don Imus para comentar el acuerdo sobre la extensión de las exenciones tributarias. Pero también ha tenido que hacer frente a una pregunta más incómoda, sobre el voto de los republicanos en contra de una ley que ofrecería asistencia sanitaria a los que participaron en las operaciones de rescate del 11-S. Los senadores republicanos amenazaron con bloquear la ley hasta que no se aprobara la extensión de los recortes de impuestos, y cumplieron la amenaza hace unos días. Thune ha dicho que el proyecto necesita cambios y que hasta ahora faltó tiempo para que hubiera debate y se pudieran presentar enmiendas.
Barbour: "en primavera"
El Gobernador Haley Barbour, de Mississippi, entrevistado por el Jackson Clarion Ledger.
(...) At age 63, Gov. Haley Barbour said deciding to run for president means resolving to "spend the rest of your productive life doing this." The decision won't come for months or without long talks with wife Marsha, the governor said.
"The idea that 'Boy, anybody would want to be president' is said by people who don't know much about being president," Barbour said. "It's a big, big decision. I'm not in any hurry to make the decision. I've got time. But I feel like I need to make a decision by this spring, and that's what I intend to do."
Barbour, during a visit with The Clarion-Ledger editorial board Wednesday, said if he does jump into the 2012 race, "it's going to be because I think I can do a better job of producing economic growth and job creation" than any other Republican candidate. The Democratic leadership in Washington has failed, he said.
"We're sitting here on what might as well still be a recession on Main Street Mississippi, and the biggest impediment to economic growth is the uncertainty created by our own government," Barbour said.
Barbour said he would not make a decision until after the upcoming legislative session, requiring his full attention.
"It's all consuming," he said. "If you don't have the fire in your belly and you're not willing to be totally focused on making this a success, you're not going to be successful."
Barbour's ability to stockpile cash heading into early primary states could place him in good standing in a crowded GOP primary, said Stephen Ansolabehere, a professor of government at Harvard University. Barbour is a fund-raising powerhouse from his time with the Republican National Committee in the 1990s and as head of the Republican Governors Association.
"What we will see on the Republican side is somebody emerge who is able to show they can get the organization up and running and raising money and my guess is that somebody like Haley Barbour or (Indiana Rep.) Mike Pence will surprise people in their ability to raise money," Ansolabehere said. (...)
(...) At age 63, Gov. Haley Barbour said deciding to run for president means resolving to "spend the rest of your productive life doing this." The decision won't come for months or without long talks with wife Marsha, the governor said.
"The idea that 'Boy, anybody would want to be president' is said by people who don't know much about being president," Barbour said. "It's a big, big decision. I'm not in any hurry to make the decision. I've got time. But I feel like I need to make a decision by this spring, and that's what I intend to do."
Barbour, during a visit with The Clarion-Ledger editorial board Wednesday, said if he does jump into the 2012 race, "it's going to be because I think I can do a better job of producing economic growth and job creation" than any other Republican candidate. The Democratic leadership in Washington has failed, he said.
"We're sitting here on what might as well still be a recession on Main Street Mississippi, and the biggest impediment to economic growth is the uncertainty created by our own government," Barbour said.
Barbour said he would not make a decision until after the upcoming legislative session, requiring his full attention.
"It's all consuming," he said. "If you don't have the fire in your belly and you're not willing to be totally focused on making this a success, you're not going to be successful."
Barbour's ability to stockpile cash heading into early primary states could place him in good standing in a crowded GOP primary, said Stephen Ansolabehere, a professor of government at Harvard University. Barbour is a fund-raising powerhouse from his time with the Republican National Committee in the 1990s and as head of the Republican Governors Association.
"What we will see on the Republican side is somebody emerge who is able to show they can get the organization up and running and raising money and my guess is that somebody like Haley Barbour or (Indiana Rep.) Mike Pence will surprise people in their ability to raise money," Ansolabehere said. (...)
Daniels: "a finales de abril"
El Gobernador Mitch Daniels, de Indiana, entrevistado por WANE-TV.
Sobre 2012:
(...) "I think the decision has to come at the end of this General Assembly session, if not before. No later than that," said Daniels . "In fairness to people from all over the place -many of whom I've only read about before- who like this idea [of Daniels running for president], I owe them some kind of an answer."
The General Assembly must wrap up its session by the end of April. Daniels said twice during Wednesday's 30-minute interview that his decision will come no later than that. He also said he has a more practical reason for setting the late April deadline: if he were to run, that would be the latest he could begin to effectively organize a campaign.
Daniels said he'll be weighing two major factors as he decides whether to pursue a White House bid. The first is whether he can run and still "do duty" to his current job, and the second is whether his wife and four daughters are willing to go along with the idea. (...)
Sobre el acuerdo para extender recortes de impuestos:
(...) If he does run, the governor's shown he's not shy about weighing in on the issues of the day. For instance, he was willing on Wednesday to wade in the thick weeds of the recent deal between President Obama and Capitol Hill Republicans to extend all of the Bush tax cuts as well as unemployment benefits.
While saying there was "plenty not to like" in the deal, Daniels went on to say, "I'm not sure they [ Republicans ] had a better option given the position of Speaker Pelosi and the position of the president. At least keep taxes from going up [for right now] and then maybe have a go at changing and fixing some of these things in a new and different Congress." (...)
Sobre 2012:
(...) "I think the decision has to come at the end of this General Assembly session, if not before. No later than that," said Daniels . "In fairness to people from all over the place -many of whom I've only read about before- who like this idea [of Daniels running for president], I owe them some kind of an answer."
The General Assembly must wrap up its session by the end of April. Daniels said twice during Wednesday's 30-minute interview that his decision will come no later than that. He also said he has a more practical reason for setting the late April deadline: if he were to run, that would be the latest he could begin to effectively organize a campaign.
Daniels said he'll be weighing two major factors as he decides whether to pursue a White House bid. The first is whether he can run and still "do duty" to his current job, and the second is whether his wife and four daughters are willing to go along with the idea. (...)
Sobre el acuerdo para extender recortes de impuestos:
(...) If he does run, the governor's shown he's not shy about weighing in on the issues of the day. For instance, he was willing on Wednesday to wade in the thick weeds of the recent deal between President Obama and Capitol Hill Republicans to extend all of the Bush tax cuts as well as unemployment benefits.
While saying there was "plenty not to like" in the deal, Daniels went on to say, "I'm not sure they [ Republicans ] had a better option given the position of Speaker Pelosi and the position of the president. At least keep taxes from going up [for right now] and then maybe have a go at changing and fixing some of these things in a new and different Congress." (...)
Debates
Ya hay cinco debates programados para las primarias republicanas. Habrá más.
Abril, 2011: debate organizado por Politico.com y MSNBC en la Reagan Presidential Library, en Simi Valley, California.
Mayo, 2011: debate organizado por Fox News en Greenville, Carolina del Sur.
Junio, 2011: debate organziado por CNN y el Union Leader en Manchester, New Hampshire.
Octubre, 2011: debate organizado por Fox News en Florida.
Febrero, 2012: ABC News y WMUR-TV organizarán un debate en Manchester, New Hampshire, después del caucus de Iowa y antes de la primaria de New Hampshire.
Abril, 2011: debate organizado por Politico.com y MSNBC en la Reagan Presidential Library, en Simi Valley, California.
Mayo, 2011: debate organizado por Fox News en Greenville, Carolina del Sur.
Junio, 2011: debate organziado por CNN y el Union Leader en Manchester, New Hampshire.
Octubre, 2011: debate organizado por Fox News en Florida.
Febrero, 2012: ABC News y WMUR-TV organizarán un debate en Manchester, New Hampshire, después del caucus de Iowa y antes de la primaria de New Hampshire.
miércoles, 15 de diciembre de 2010
Decisión de Steele enfurece a los donantes
La decisión de Michael Steele de presentarse a un nuevo mandato el próximo mes de enero ha sido mal acogida por casi todos los estratos del GOP. Los más molestos son los grandes donantes que amenazan con seguir donando su dinero a organizaciones paralelas en lugar de al RNC, si Steele gana un segundo mandato.
(...) “If Mr. Steele were to prevail, it will further alienate the party’s major financial supporters and most active fundraisers,” said Wayne Berman, a top Washington lobbyist and bundler who served as the McCain presidential campaign’s finance chairman in 2008. “His arrogant style, cult of personality and embarrassing mismanagement are sources of great discontent with the major fundraisers of the party.”
Should Steele return as chairman, Berman added, it will spur many donors to do what they did in 2010 and “support the many successful third-party groups.”
(...) Al Hoffman, a longtime GOP contributor in Florida who did two separate stints as RNC finance chairman in President Bush’s first term, was just as withering: “The donor community has virtually no faith or confidence in Michael Steele’s to be the keeper of the keys.”
“The long and short of it is I have a hard time finding any major donor who would trust him to straighten out the RNC and run a principled and ethical fundraising operation,” said the Floridian. “Whose going to give to him as long as he’s at the helm? Not me. My own slogan is now, Anybody But Steele.”
(...) Mel Sembler, another Floridian who also once served as the RNC’s Finance Chairman, expressed worry that if Steele continued atop the party it would make it more difficult for donors in the state to raise the $50 million needed for the GOP’s 2012 convention in Tampa.
“They’re spending money like drunken sailors up there,” Sembler said of the RNC, alluding to news accounts of how much the party was already paying to plan the convention. “And because of that major donors are concerned about how [the local organizers] will spend their money.”
(...) Asked about Steele’s decision to run, Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) allowed that it’s “his prerogative,” before adding that “there are other people already in the race.”
Pressed on whether Steele would be a good leader heading into the 2012 presidential campaign, Thune, a potential White House contender, voiced what is on the mind of many in the GOP.
“There’s a concern about him stepping up the pace on fundraising,” he said. “That’s a valid one, obviously. I think he’ll have to address that or at least come up with a way of addressing that in his argument to continue in the job.”
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) went a step further, saying he was "looking for alternatives.”
"I appreciate his service, but 2012 is real important,” DeMint said of Steele.
A handful of the nation’s GOP governors, including Mississippi Gov. and former RNC Chairman Haley Barbour, have already indicated a desire for change atop the party. (...)
(...) “If Mr. Steele were to prevail, it will further alienate the party’s major financial supporters and most active fundraisers,” said Wayne Berman, a top Washington lobbyist and bundler who served as the McCain presidential campaign’s finance chairman in 2008. “His arrogant style, cult of personality and embarrassing mismanagement are sources of great discontent with the major fundraisers of the party.”
Should Steele return as chairman, Berman added, it will spur many donors to do what they did in 2010 and “support the many successful third-party groups.”
(...) Al Hoffman, a longtime GOP contributor in Florida who did two separate stints as RNC finance chairman in President Bush’s first term, was just as withering: “The donor community has virtually no faith or confidence in Michael Steele’s to be the keeper of the keys.”
“The long and short of it is I have a hard time finding any major donor who would trust him to straighten out the RNC and run a principled and ethical fundraising operation,” said the Floridian. “Whose going to give to him as long as he’s at the helm? Not me. My own slogan is now, Anybody But Steele.”
(...) Mel Sembler, another Floridian who also once served as the RNC’s Finance Chairman, expressed worry that if Steele continued atop the party it would make it more difficult for donors in the state to raise the $50 million needed for the GOP’s 2012 convention in Tampa.
“They’re spending money like drunken sailors up there,” Sembler said of the RNC, alluding to news accounts of how much the party was already paying to plan the convention. “And because of that major donors are concerned about how [the local organizers] will spend their money.”
(...) Asked about Steele’s decision to run, Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) allowed that it’s “his prerogative,” before adding that “there are other people already in the race.”
Pressed on whether Steele would be a good leader heading into the 2012 presidential campaign, Thune, a potential White House contender, voiced what is on the mind of many in the GOP.
“There’s a concern about him stepping up the pace on fundraising,” he said. “That’s a valid one, obviously. I think he’ll have to address that or at least come up with a way of addressing that in his argument to continue in the job.”
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) went a step further, saying he was "looking for alternatives.”
"I appreciate his service, but 2012 is real important,” DeMint said of Steele.
A handful of the nation’s GOP governors, including Mississippi Gov. and former RNC Chairman Haley Barbour, have already indicated a desire for change atop the party. (...)
Pawlenty en On The Record (Fox News)
Habló de la reforma sanitaria y el acuerdo para extender las rebajas de impuestos. Sobre esto último dijo que "símplemente no podemos permitir que los impuestos suban" aunque este "no es el convenio que yo hubiera negociado."
Cambios en el staff de la Casa Blanca
Politico.com nos adelanta hoy detalles sobre la próxima reorganización del staff de la Casa Blanca. Lo más destacado es la entrada de David Plouffe, campaign manager de Obama en 2008, que en los últimos dos años ha estado al frente de Organizing for America, una organización creada para mantener activa la infraestructura y la operación política de 2008 a través de proyectos de movilización comunitaria en favor de las políticas del Presidente. A partir de enero se convertirá en "senior adviser" y trabajará a tiempo completo en la Casa Blanca.
Plouffe trabajará con el Jefe de Gabinete interino Pete Rouse que tiene todas las papeletas de continuar de forma permanente en su puesto. Plouffe será el hombre fuerte de la oficina presidencial, con control sobre la agenda política y la estrategia de comunicaciones, asumiendo parte de las responsabilidades del dimitido Rahnm Emanuel, y de David Axelrod (senior adviser) y Jim Messina (Adjunto al Jefe de Gabinete) que se marcharán en primavera a Chicago a preparar la campaña de reelección.
Rouse será un Jefe de Gabinete de bajo perfil, relagado a labores de coordinación y logística. Y Phil Schiliro, hasta ahora director de asuntos legislativos, pasará a ser su número dos. Dan Pfeiffer, hombre muy cercano al Presidente, continuará como director de comunicaciones (es el tercero en dos años), y Robert Gibbs será sustituído como Secretario de Prensa con la excusa de mandarlo a trabajar para la campaña de re-elección. El Vicepresidente Joe Biden ganará protagonismo en la sombra como enlace de la Administración con el Congreso -ha sido el principal negociador en el acuerdo sobre impuestos y lo está siendo también para la ratificación del nuevo START.
El nuevo equipo tendrá la misión de levantar la moral a un personal muy tocado después del éxodo masivo de figuras clave (el propio Emanuel, Christina Romer, Peter Orszag, James Jones, Larry Summers, etc.), y buscar modos ingeniosos de hacer avanzar la agenda presidencial en el Congreso después de dos años acostumbrados a trabajar con grandes mayorías demócratas. Rahm Emanuel era un táctico, un hombre de resultados inmediatos. Ahora habrá que pensar más en una estrategia a medio y largo plazo, porque no existirán las soluciones instantáneas. El otro gran reto será modificar la imagen de Obama. Según los críticos, el modelo de dirección de Emanuel, inspirado en su experiencia en el legislativo, ha convertido a Obama en un "primer ministro a la europea" sin la mística del "Presidente". Tendrán que volver a elevar su figura.
* El año pasado escribí biografías en español de todos los Jefes de Gabinete de la historia. Aquí las dejo porque en ellas se explica un poco el funcionamiento del personal de las diferentes administraciones. El mejor ha sido James Baker. El más poderoso Sherman Adams.
John Steelman (1946-1953)
Sherman Adams (1953-1958)
Jerry Persons (1958-1961)
Vacante (1961-1965)
W. Marvin Watson (1965-1968)
Jim Jones (1968-1969)
H.R. Haldeman (1969-1973)
Al Haig (1973-1974)
Donald Rumsfeld (1974-1975)
Dick Cheney (1975-1977)
Vacante (1977-1979)
Hamilton Jordan (1979-1980)
Jack Watson (1980-1981)
James Baker (1981-1985)
Donald Regan (1985-1987)
Howard Baker (1987-1988)
Ken Duberstein (1988-1989)
John Sununu (1989-1991)
Samuel Skinner (1991-1992)
James Baker (1992-1993)
Mack McLarty (1993-1994)
Leon Panetta (1994-1997)
Erskine Bowles (1997-1998)
John Podesta (1998-2001)
Andrew Card (2001-2006)
Joshua Bolten (2006-2009)
Rahm Emanuel (2009-2010)
martes, 14 de diciembre de 2010
Thune replica a Romney
El Senador John Thune ha aprovechado su intervención en el Senado para criticar a los que se oponen al acuerdo para extender por dos años los recortes de impuestos, recordándoles que oponerse al plan implica dejar que los recortes de impuestos expiren en dos semanas. No ha mencionado a Romney pero todos los observadores han querido ver en sus palabras el primer ataque contra el más fuerte de sus futuros rivales.
(...) South Dakota Sen. John Thune took a veiled swipe at Mitt Romney on the Senate floor Tuesday, saying it’s “easy” and “possibly even politically expedient to stand on the sidelines and criticize” the tax cut proposal backed by President Obama and GOP congressional leaders.
“Inaction is not an option, and advocating against this proposal is no different than advocating for higher taxes,” Thune said in a Tuesday afternoon speech. Thune voted to advance the proposal in the Senate on Monday. Just a handful of Republicans, including possible 2012 candidate Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), opposed it.
(...) Thune, who is contemplating a bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012, said the proposal isn’t perfect but that not backing it amounts to a tax increase.
“If we wait for the perfect proposal, the perfect agreement, then American families and American small businesses are going to pay higher taxes just two weeks from now," Thune said. "That’s not a scare tactic; that’s not political posturing. That ... is simply a fact.”
It’s a preview of what will likely be a major Thune campaign theme: While others were out campaigning for president or hosting Fox News shows, he was in the Senate’s trenches fighting against the most damaging pieces of Obama’s agenda, including health care and repealing the Bush tax cuts for the nation’s highest earners. (...)
Romney y la insontitucionalidad del ObamaCare
El Boston Herald se pregunta cómo puede afectar a Mitt Romney la batalla legal sobre la constitucionalidad de una parte de la reforma sanitaria de Obama, por aquello de su ley sanitaria de Massachusetts.
(...) “The longer this goes on and the more it’s in the headlines, the worse for Romney,” said Larry Sabato, who heads the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “When will it get to the Supreme Court? At least a year. That puts it right in the middle of the presidential political season — which would be a nightmare for Romney.”
(...) “Obviously he’s got a problem regardless of how the courts rule,’’ Sabato said. “He’s got a political problem here, not a legal problem.
Romney’s spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom lauded Hudson’s ruling yesterday, repeating Romney’s argument that states should have the power to control their own health-care systems, not federal officials.
“The ruling supports Mitt Romney’s view that Obamacare is an unconstitutional power grab by Washington. We should repeal the law and return to the states the power to determine their own health-care solutions,” said Fehrnstrom in a statement.
Andy Smith, a University of New Hampshire political professor, said the Virginia ruling could provide some “cover” for Romney.
“It gives him more credence to say that what happened in Massachusetts was OK because it was done within state boundaries,” Smith said. “But I would imagine he feels that the less said about health care, the better.” (...)
(...) “The longer this goes on and the more it’s in the headlines, the worse for Romney,” said Larry Sabato, who heads the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “When will it get to the Supreme Court? At least a year. That puts it right in the middle of the presidential political season — which would be a nightmare for Romney.”
(...) “Obviously he’s got a problem regardless of how the courts rule,’’ Sabato said. “He’s got a political problem here, not a legal problem.
Romney’s spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom lauded Hudson’s ruling yesterday, repeating Romney’s argument that states should have the power to control their own health-care systems, not federal officials.
“The ruling supports Mitt Romney’s view that Obamacare is an unconstitutional power grab by Washington. We should repeal the law and return to the states the power to determine their own health-care solutions,” said Fehrnstrom in a statement.
Andy Smith, a University of New Hampshire political professor, said the Virginia ruling could provide some “cover” for Romney.
“It gives him more credence to say that what happened in Massachusetts was OK because it was done within state boundaries,” Smith said. “But I would imagine he feels that the less said about health care, the better.” (...)
Pawlenty gana el "Christmas Card Race" en Iowa
La competición por ser el primer candidato en enviar postales de felicitación navideña a las gentes de Iowa. Lo paga su comité de acción política.
Romney: "un mal trato"
Artículo de opinión de Mitt Romney en USA Today. El ex Gobernador de Massachusetts critica el acuerdo tributario entre la Casa Blanca y los líderes republicanos del Congreso porque cree que la extensión de los recortes de impuestos debería ser permanente. En su opinión, una extensión de sólo dos años no servirá para atajar la incertidumbre que existe en el mundo de los negocios.
Why tax cut is a bad deal
(...) Death and taxes, it is said, are life's only two certainties. But in the wake of President Obama's tax compromise with congressional Republicans, only death retains the status of certainty: The future for taxes has been left up in the air. And uncertainty is not a friend of investment, growth and job creation.
The deal has several key features. It reduces payroll taxes, extends unemployment benefits and keeps current tax rates intact. So far, so good. But intermixed with the benefits are considerable costs of consequence. Given the unambiguous message that the American people sent to Washington in November, it is difficult to understand how our political leaders could have reached such a disappointing agreement. The new, more conservative Congress should reach a better solution.
The deal keeps current tax rates from rising to pre-Bush era levels for two years. But in 2013, unless Congress acts again, rates will increase dramatically.
Continúa (...)
Why tax cut is a bad deal
(...) Death and taxes, it is said, are life's only two certainties. But in the wake of President Obama's tax compromise with congressional Republicans, only death retains the status of certainty: The future for taxes has been left up in the air. And uncertainty is not a friend of investment, growth and job creation.
The deal has several key features. It reduces payroll taxes, extends unemployment benefits and keeps current tax rates intact. So far, so good. But intermixed with the benefits are considerable costs of consequence. Given the unambiguous message that the American people sent to Washington in November, it is difficult to understand how our political leaders could have reached such a disappointing agreement. The new, more conservative Congress should reach a better solution.
The deal keeps current tax rates from rising to pre-Bush era levels for two years. But in 2013, unless Congress acts again, rates will increase dramatically.
Continúa (...)
lunes, 13 de diciembre de 2010
1,000 millones de dólares
Chris Cillizza especula en el Washington Post con la posibilidad de que el Presidente Obama recaude 1,000 millones de dólares en su campaña de reelección, para gastar en la elección general si no tiene primarias. Dice que la fuerza de los grupos externos del GOP motivará más donaciones demócratas, aunque ignora que la ausencia de la emoción de las primarias de 2008 puede aletargar las donaciones por internet. 1,000 millones es improbable aunque no imposible.
En 2008, Obama recaudó un total de 750 millones de dólares, frente a los 370 millones de McCain. 410 millones durante las primarias y el resto después gracias a que renunció a la financiación pública. McCain recaudó 220 millones de dólares durante las primarias pero, al acogerse a la financiación pública, no pudo recaudar más de 84 millones de dólares después de la Convención. La decisión resultó definitiva en el resultado de las elecciones. Por ejemplo, Obama gastó 136 millones de dólares en la última semana de campaña; McCain sólo 26 millones. En Virginia, Obama gastó 24 millones en anuncios de televisión; McCain sólo 7 millones.
Los republicanos están avisados. El test del dinero será más importante que nunca para elegir candidato.
En 2008, Obama recaudó un total de 750 millones de dólares, frente a los 370 millones de McCain. 410 millones durante las primarias y el resto después gracias a que renunció a la financiación pública. McCain recaudó 220 millones de dólares durante las primarias pero, al acogerse a la financiación pública, no pudo recaudar más de 84 millones de dólares después de la Convención. La decisión resultó definitiva en el resultado de las elecciones. Por ejemplo, Obama gastó 136 millones de dólares en la última semana de campaña; McCain sólo 26 millones. En Virginia, Obama gastó 24 millones en anuncios de televisión; McCain sólo 7 millones.
Los republicanos están avisados. El test del dinero será más importante que nunca para elegir candidato.
Steele no se retira (según Fox News)
Después de mantener lo contrario toda la mañana, Fox News dice ahora que Michael Steele anunciará que se presenta a la relección.
(...) “Controversial Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, who last month presided over the GOP’s biggest electoral gain since 1938, will announce tonight that he is running for reelection. FOX News has just learned that from two RNC members. Steele plans to throw his hat into the ring during a conference call with RNC members at 7:30 pm tonight, these sources have told us. Steele is said to be amused by these false reports of his retirement and intentionally kept his plans secret for the past month in order to flush out competitors for the post, FOX has learned.” (...)
(...) “Controversial Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, who last month presided over the GOP’s biggest electoral gain since 1938, will announce tonight that he is running for reelection. FOX News has just learned that from two RNC members. Steele plans to throw his hat into the ring during a conference call with RNC members at 7:30 pm tonight, these sources have told us. Steele is said to be amused by these false reports of his retirement and intentionally kept his plans secret for the past month in order to flush out competitors for the post, FOX has learned.” (...)
Steele inclinado a dejar la presidencia del RNC
Michael Steele tiene previsto dirigirse a las 7:30 pm (hora de la Costa Este) de esta tarde a los miembros del Comité Nacional Republicano (RNC), para entendernos el comité ejecutivo nacional del Partido Republicano. Los rumores apuntan a que Steele anunciará que renuncia a presentarse a un segundo mandato como presidente del RNC. Para situar su decisión en contexto leer esto.
Ya hay cinco candidatos oficiales a sucederle: Saul Anuzis, ex presidente del partido en Michigan; Ann Wagner, ex presidenta del partido en Missouri; Gentry Collins, ex director político del RNC; Reince Priebus, presidente del partido en Wisconsin; y Maria Cino, ex jefa de estrategia del RNC. En los próximos días podría unirse a la lista el ex Senador Norm Coleman, presidente de American Action Network and Forum, uno de los grupos externos más activos de este ciclo electoral.
Maria Cino es la favorecida por el aparato político de Bush. Su candidatura fue presentada la pasada semana en una cena privada en la casa de la consultora política Mary Matalin en una zona exclusiva de Alexandria, Virginia, en los suburbios de Washington DC. A la cena asistieron el ex Vicepresidente Dick Cheney, el ex presidente del RNC Ed Gillespie, algunos congresistas, y cerca de 400 donantes republicanos a los que Cino expuso sus planes sobre recaudación de fondos y financiación del partido.
Cualquiera diría que es la favorita pero no lo es porque no es uno de los 168 miembros del comité con derecho a voto, y podría generar división interna. Los miembros actuales del comité tienen más posibilidades de salir elegidos. Por eso Reince Priebus aparece en principio como el favorito después de los sorprendentes éxitos del GOP en Wisconsin. Priebus puede ser del agrado tanto de la vieja guardia como de los hasta ahora leales de Steele, y ya ha anunciado sus primeros apoyos.
(...) That roster includes Steve King and Mary Buestrin, Priebus's fellow RNC members from Wisconsin, Illinois state Republican Party chairman Pat Brady, Sharon Giese of Arizona and Bruce Hough of Utah.
Priebus's proximity to Steele is a problem for some who believe it makes him a party to Steele's shortcomings. But Priebus has demonstrated he has supporters beyond the dwindling number of Steele allies on the committee. On Friday, Priebus formally rolled out endorsements from Georgia's Alec Poitevint, Mississippi's Henry Barbour, Curly Haugland of North Dakota and Mark Hillman of Colorado. Minnesota state GOP chairman Tony Sutton will also vote for Priebus.
Brady, Poitevint, Barbour and King are particularly influential members of the committee and may be able to bring additional votes with them. Brady has been encouraging Priebus to run for months, while Barbour is seen as a proxy for his well-respected uncle, former RNC chairman and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour. (...)
Pawlenty presume de su historial reformista en el WSJ
El Wall Street Journal publica esta mañana un artículo de opinión escrito por Tim Pawlenty. El Gobernador critica el poder de los sindicatos de empleados públicos, y recuerda sus acciones en Minnesota para forzar a los sindicatos de empleados gubernamentales a aceptar reformas.
(...) The rise of the labor movement in the early 20th century was a triumph for America's working class. In an era of deep economic anxiety, unions stood up for hard-working but vulnerable families, protecting them from physical and economic exploitation.
Much has changed. The majority of union members today no longer work in construction, manufacturing or "strong back" jobs. They work for government, which, thanks to President Obama, has become the only booming "industry" left in our economy. Since January 2008 the private sector has lost nearly eight million jobs while local, state and federal governments added 590,000.
Federal employees receive an average of $123,049 annually in pay and benefits, twice the average of the private sector. And across the country, at every level of government, the pattern is the same: Unionized public employees are making more money, receiving more generous benefits, and enjoying greater job security than the working families forced to pay for it with ever-higher taxes, deficits and debt.
(...) Over the last eight years in Minnesota, we have taken decisive action to prevent our problems from becoming a state crisis. Public employee unions fought us virtually every step of the way. Mass transit employees, for example, went on strike for 44 days in 2005—because we refused to grant them lifetime health-care benefits after working just 15 years. It was a tough fight, but in the end Minnesota taxpayers won.
We reworked benefits for new hires. We required existing employees to contribute more to their pensions. We reformed our public employee health plan and froze wages.
We proved that even in deep-blue Minnesota, taxpayers can take on big government and big labor, and win. In coming years, that fight will have to be joined throughout the country in city halls, state capitals and in Washington, D.C.
Reformers would be wise to adopt three overriding principles.
First, we need to bring public employee compensation back in line with the private sector and reduce the overall size of the federal civilian work force. Mr. Obama's proposal to freeze federal pay is a step in the right direction, but it falls well short of shrinking government and eliminating the pay premium enjoyed by federal employees.
Second, get the numbers right. Government should start using the same established accounting standards that private businesses are required to use, so we can accurately assess unfunded liabilities.
Third, we need to end defined-benefit retirement plans for government employees. Defined-benefit systems have created a financial albatross for taxpayers. The private sector dropped them years ago in favor of the clarity and predictability of defined-contribution models such as 401(k) plans. This change alone can save taxpayers trillions of dollars. (...)
(...) The rise of the labor movement in the early 20th century was a triumph for America's working class. In an era of deep economic anxiety, unions stood up for hard-working but vulnerable families, protecting them from physical and economic exploitation.
Much has changed. The majority of union members today no longer work in construction, manufacturing or "strong back" jobs. They work for government, which, thanks to President Obama, has become the only booming "industry" left in our economy. Since January 2008 the private sector has lost nearly eight million jobs while local, state and federal governments added 590,000.
Federal employees receive an average of $123,049 annually in pay and benefits, twice the average of the private sector. And across the country, at every level of government, the pattern is the same: Unionized public employees are making more money, receiving more generous benefits, and enjoying greater job security than the working families forced to pay for it with ever-higher taxes, deficits and debt.
(...) Over the last eight years in Minnesota, we have taken decisive action to prevent our problems from becoming a state crisis. Public employee unions fought us virtually every step of the way. Mass transit employees, for example, went on strike for 44 days in 2005—because we refused to grant them lifetime health-care benefits after working just 15 years. It was a tough fight, but in the end Minnesota taxpayers won.
We reworked benefits for new hires. We required existing employees to contribute more to their pensions. We reformed our public employee health plan and froze wages.
We proved that even in deep-blue Minnesota, taxpayers can take on big government and big labor, and win. In coming years, that fight will have to be joined throughout the country in city halls, state capitals and in Washington, D.C.
Reformers would be wise to adopt three overriding principles.
First, we need to bring public employee compensation back in line with the private sector and reduce the overall size of the federal civilian work force. Mr. Obama's proposal to freeze federal pay is a step in the right direction, but it falls well short of shrinking government and eliminating the pay premium enjoyed by federal employees.
Second, get the numbers right. Government should start using the same established accounting standards that private businesses are required to use, so we can accurately assess unfunded liabilities.
Third, we need to end defined-benefit retirement plans for government employees. Defined-benefit systems have created a financial albatross for taxpayers. The private sector dropped them years ago in favor of the clarity and predictability of defined-contribution models such as 401(k) plans. This change alone can save taxpayers trillions of dollars. (...)
Ron Paul no descarta presentarse
La nueva mayoría republicana, con la aprobación del futuro Speaker John Boehner y del futuro Líder de la Mayoría Eric Cantor, otorgó hace unos días al Congresista Ron Paul (R - Texas) la presidencia del Subcomité sobre Política Monetaria de la Cámara de Representantes, el subcomité que dentro del Comité de Servicios Financieros se encarga de la supervisión de las actividades de la Reserva Federal.
La designación es un enorme premio para el ala libertaria del GOP, pero también una maniobra para mantener entretenido a Paul en los próximos dos años. El Congresista promete revolucionar el subcomité. Ya ha dicho que está pensando en llamar a testificar a los oficiales de la Fed y promover leyes para auditar o cerrar el banco central. Pero, de momento, tampoco descarta una nueva campaña presidencial en 2012.
(...) “I’d say it’s at least 50-50 that I’ll run again,” he said, adding that he would look at where the economy is. (Aides add that it would depend a lot on what his wife, Carol, says.) (...)
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