¿Es la nominación de Perry salvo que falle?

Es lo que piensa Jonathan Chait, de The New Republic:

Perry isn't a lock, but something has to happen to take him down, or he will win. Political pundits have been dismissing Perry's lead by claiming that early polls "mean nothing." But when you examine this view closely, it turns out to mean "early polls meant nothing in the 2007-2008 cycle." In general, early polls mean a great deal in Republican primaries. They're not perfect, but they are strong indicators.

Obviously, you can't be certain about anything, and you have to make human judgments about the field. Does a candidate's lead represent a name recognition bubble that's likely to pop once voters learn more about the candidate's history or platform? (Think Joe Lieberman 2004.) When I look at the GOP field, I see an incredibly vulnerable Mitt Romney just waiting for someone to point out all the ways he's flouting the party's most deeply held beliefs, and see Rick Perry as both the man to do it and a a perfect embodiment of the party id.

Comparte opinión John Ellis, primo de Bush, que a principios de semana decía en Business Insider que sólo los debates de septiembre y octubre separan a Perry de la nominación:

Once Labor Day has passed, there will be five debates, in quick succession, on the GOP presidential candidates' calendars. These will be important tests for Perry. If at the end of two or three, it's clear that he's every bit the equal of Mitt Romney on matters of policy and politics, then the Perry juggernaut becomes all but unstoppable. Romney's "I'm the only electable one" argument will vanish and the party's base will nominate one of their own. If Perry stumbles badly in the debates, Romney's campaign gets a second wind.

Knowing that the only things standing between Perry and the GOP nomination are a couple of "good enough" debate performances, the GOP "establishment" faces a choice: they can cross their fingers and hope for the best or mount a sustained negative campaign to destroy Perry with the party's base. It is likely that, after Labor Day, a sustained negative campaign against Perry will be launched.

(...) The real test, then, will be the five upcoming debates. If Perry does well enough in those to convince the base that he can command the national stage, then the caucus and primary season won't be long. It'll be over before you know it.

Fotos de campaña: un candidato delante de casa

Dos mujeres observan curiosas al Senador Eugene McCarthy hablando con la prensa en Indiana, en abril de 1968.

Perry: 600,000 dólares en una hora

Es lo que recaudó ayer durante una comida en Fort Worth, Texas.

The Star-Telegram:

In about an hour Tuesday, Gov. Rick Perry swept through town, energizing local Republicans and adding about $600,000 to his presidential campaign war chest.

Perry, who emerged as the front-runner for the GOP nomination shortly after jumping into the race, attended a $2,500-per-person fundraiser at noon at the City Club.

Obama busca un villano

The Hill adelanta en líneas generales la estrategia que seguirá Team Obama en los próximos meses:

He needs a villain and fast.

Enter Congress, the villain set to return to work next week. It clocks in with a 13 percent approval rating, having suffered more from the July brawl over the debt ceiling than even Obama.

When GOP lawmakers return, the president and his team are ready to deliver a flurry of attacks, castigating Congress for inaction on jobs, being on the wrong side of taxes and eager to destroy social safety net programs. If Obama and his team have their way, Americans will come to see every Republican as a Tea Party extremist.

(...) By forcing the GOP to take positions on key economic issues like the payroll tax cut and tax cuts for the rich, Obama and his team are hoping to draw out and lock down the president’s 2012 challengers.

Crece la impaciencia entre algunos aliados de Romney

POLITICO.com:

The Boston powers insist that they’re not panicking over Perry’s burst into the lead in a series of recent national polls. Two top officials separately said the numbers were inflated by the Texan’s strong early showing in the South.

Still, Romney supporters are starting to grow anxious.

“Perry has certainly changed the mix of the race,” said former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, a Romney supporter and fundraiser. “I do think [Romney] needs to step it up several notches. The low-key campaign has served well him well to this point but coming out of Labor Day, he needs to be a lot more aggressive. The low-profile strategy is not going to work this fall.”

South Carolina state Rep. Nathan Ballentine, also a Romney backer, said Perry had garnered “a lot of buzz” in the Palmetto State.

“For a lot of people who were waiting around, he’s going to be the one they hop on with,” said Ballentine, who, before learning that Romney had reconsidered attending DeMint’s forum, said he wished Romney would do just that.

Neither Lott nor Ballentine said they thought their candidate should directly take on Perry, but other senior Republicans believe that the Texan could ultimately stand in the way of Romney’s path to the nomination.

“The world has changed in the primary,” said veteran GOP consultant Mike Murphy, who worked for Romney in his 2002 gubernatorial race. “They have to decide how and where they beat Perry. The passive strategy — where they have name ID and none of their opponents do — is not working anymore.”

Perry will be an especially formidable rival to Romney if Michele Bachmann and other GOP contenders fade, leaving primary voters with a stark choice between the former Massachusetts governor and an alternative who meets both ideological and electoral muster.

“A binary choice between somebody who appears to be an electable, clearly conservative candidate and Romney is a tough fight for Romney,” said Republican strategist Terry Nelson, who had been working for Tim Pawlenty.

But Romney’s gurus point to three important but as yet unknown factors to explain why they’re not ready to reach for their rifle.

As long as the final field remains uncertain, the caucus and primary calendar unset and Perry’s ability to hold up over a series of debates and heightened media scrutiny unknown, they say they’re reluctant to make any hard and fast strategic decisions.

In state-by-state terms, this means they’re going to keep playing wait-and-see in Iowa and South Carolina, where they’ve limited Romney’s presence this year, until it becomes more clear who will be in the mix.

Christie descarta presentarse con una certeza del 100%

En una entrevista en The Daily Beast:

His brash hurricane performance only stoked some Republicans' belief that the N.J. governor is the man to beat Obama. But Christie tells John Avlon he doesn't "feel it."

(...) It seems that every move Christie makes these days is accompanied by the drumbeats of a draft movement. Billionaire businessmen, conservative commentators, and grassroots Tea Party enthusiasts—they’ve all been begging him to get in the 2012 presidential race, despite his repeated resistance.

“It's incredibly flattering,” Christie says, “but I've been pretty clear about it. I know what I want do and what I don't want to do.” Rarely has a fat man tried harder not to get a date.

Less than two years ago, Christie was barely a blip on the national political radar screen—just a U.S. attorney with 130 successful prosecutions, 125 Springsteen shows and 300-plus pounds under his belt. But the seeker is never as popular as the sought, and petitioners point out that the last rookie New Jersey governor pushed into a presidential run was Woodrow Wilson in 1912—precisely 100 years ago. This, they argue, is Chris Christie’s moment.

(...) He unexpectedly won a Virginia Tea Party straw poll in October 2010 and the odes from the talk-radio crowd soon made the jump from grassroots to grass tops, with business leaders singing praises along with party mandarins. Rarely do politicians find such a broad and deep swell of support at precisely the time their party is looking for a candidate who can appeal to independents and beat an incumbent president. It is foolish to think that this momentum can be preserved for four years. So why not run now?

“Cause I just don't feel it,” Christie says leaning back in his chair. “In the end this is an extraordinarily personal decision … If I felt it, I'd think about doing it. If I don't feel it, then I can't do it. It's really not a lot more complicated than that.”

So does that mean Chris Christie is willing to say with 100 percent certainty that he will not run for president in 2012? “Yes,” he says. And as simple as that, the dreams of a hundred high-profile donors and activists go up in smoke, as with the draft campaigns for Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee, and Paul Ryan before Christie.

Ron Paul en The Kudlow Report (CNBC)

Ron Paul en Anderson Cooper 360 (CNN)

Santorum en la Universidad de Pennsylvania

Respondiendo a las preguntas de un grupo de estudiantes.

Mucha actividad de candidatos en NH en los próximos días

Jon Huntsman presentará hoy su plan de empleo en Hudson, New Hampshire, e iniciará una gira de seis días por el estado:

Huntsman will continue talking about the jobs plan for the remainder of his six-day campaign visit to New Hampshire.

On Sept. 1 at 8 a.m., Huntsman will speak to a “Politics and Eggs” gathering at Saint Anselm College and then address a Concord Chamber of Commerce Business Roundtable at the law offices of Orr and Reno at 12:30 p.m.

On Sept. 2 at 10:30 a.m., Huntsman will tour Granite State Manufacturing on Joliette Street in Manchester.

His two stops scheduled for Sept. 3 are at the Concord Gun Show at the Everett Arena at 10 a.m. and then at the Hopkinton Fair at 4:30 p.m.

On Sept. 4, Huntsman will meet voters at the Alton Fair at Sibley's at The Pier in Alton Bay.

On Labor Day, Sept. 5, he will march in the VFW Post 4368 Labor Day Parade in Milford at 1 p.m. and then speak at the Salem-Windham Republican Labor Day Picnic at the Salem-Derry Elks Lodge in Salem.

Ron Paul estará en NH mañana y pasado:

Ron Paul will make his third visit to New Hampshire in three weeks on Thursday, Sept. 1, and Friday, Sept. 2.

Paul will host a town hall meeting on Thursday at 7 p.m. at New England College in Henniker and then make business stops in Manchester and Salem on Friday.

The business stops are not open to the public, the Paul campaign said.

Rick Perry participará en dos house parties el sábado:

UnionLeader.com reported that last year's Republican nominee for governor, John Stephen, and his brother, Chuck, will host presidential hopeful Rick Perry when Perry comes to New Hampshire next Saturday, Sept. 3.

Invitations have gone out to meet to Perry at Chuck Stephen's Manchester home from 1 to 3 p.m. that day.

Although John Stephen is interested in Perry, as illustrated by him co-hosting the event, he has not endorsed the Texas governor — at least not yet.

Later that afternoon and evening, Perry supporter former U.S. Sen. Gordon Humphrey will host a reception for Perry at Humphrey's home in Chichester.

Mitt Romney estará con el Tea Party el domingo y el lunes desayunará en un country club:

His campaign says he will appear at a Tea Party Express Reclaiming America Tour event in at Rollins Park in Concord on Sunday, Sept. 4 at 6 p.m.

He will host a pancake breakfast at the Derryfield Country Club in Manchester at 8:30 a.m. on Monday, Sept. 5 (Labor Day) before heading to South Carolina.

Romney's wife, Ann, will take his place marching in the Milford VFW Labor Day Parade on Monday afternoon.

Más de 400 recaudadores reclutados

Fuentes de la campaña de Perry aseguran a iWatch News que ya han reclutado más de 400 grandes recaudadores (los que recaudan cifras de cuatro ceros para arriba) y que contemplan reclutar hasta 1,000. Debe ser cierto porque de no serlo tenderían a rebajar expectativas.

Rick Perry’s GOP presidential campaign has rapidly assembled an impressive roster of bundlers who have each signed up to bring in sums ranging from $50,000 to $500,000.

Two veteran fundraisers for the Perry campaign, in interviews with iWatch News, put the number of recruited bundlers at more than 400 and as high as 1,000. A third said the number was “multiples” of President Obama’s bundlers.

The Obama campaign listed 271 bundlers who had raised $50,000 or more at the end of June, accounting for about 40 percent of the $86 million that the campaign collected jointly with the Democratic National Committee.

The Perry campaign appears to have made huge strides, considering it is less than a month old.

“The Perry campaign is off to a fast start on the finance side,” Mississippian Henry Barbour, who has pledged to raise $500,000, told iWatch News. At this early stage, Barbour added, it looks like the campaign “will be able to perform at a similar level, if not exceed, what Bush did in 2000 and McCain did in 2008. It’s impressive.”

Tuesday night in Dallas, at the chic Fairmont Hotel, Perry’s fundraising firepower will be out in force. An A-list of Texas donors and money rustlers have signed up as Dallas hosts including a few billionaires or near billionaires like: buyout mogul Harold Simmons, Ross Perot Jr. of the eponymous Perot Group and leveraged buyout executive Tom Hicks.

(...) This money marathon is part of the campaign’s drive to quickly raise $10 million, mostly out of the Lone Star state, say Perry fundraisers. To achieve that goal the bundlers will be crucial since individual donations are limited to $2,500 per election.

Asked how many bundlers the campaign had signed up, campaign spokesman Mark Miner, said, “We’re not going to comment on our fundraising strategy and goals.” Miner said no decision has been made about publicly releasing the names of bundlers, as the Obama campaign has done but no Republican campaigns thus far.

Since mid- August when Perry announced he was running, his campaign has lured away some Romney bundlers to work for the Texas governor. At least two Florida bundlers for Romney, businessmen Anthony Leon and Jim Holton, have moved over to help Perry. Further, insurance executive A.K. Desai, a leading Florida fundraiser for Romney in 2008, has agreed to host an event for Perry on Sept. 13 in the Tampa area.

Next month Perry is scheduled to do several fundraisers in California, New York City and Washington, D.C.

Vuelven las preguntas sobre Hillary

Durante la sesión informativa diaria del pasado lunes, un veterano reportero le preguntó al Secretario de Prensa si están seguros en la Casa Blanca de que Hillary Clinton no se va a presentar a las primarias demócratas de 2012.

Q: Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders said -- and this is a quote -- "One of the reasons the president has moved so far to the right is there is no primary opposition to him." And my question: Why is the president certain that Hillary won't run against him? (Laughter.)

MR. CARNEY: You win the award for originality today.

Q: Thank you very much.

MR. CARNEY: The president is focused not on any election -- he's focused right now on doing his job to grow the economy, create jobs, ensure that Americans who are in the path of this hurricane are taken care of. That's what he's focused on.

Q: I understand. You're running away from this question. I mean, can you guarantee that -- are you sure that --

MR. CARNEY: You'd have to ask --

Q: -- Hillary is not going to run?

MR. CARNEY: You'd have to ask her. We're fairly confident --

Q: That she won't?

MR. CARNEY: -- that we need to focus on the task at hand.

Romney en un rally del Tea Party por primera vez

CNN:

For the first time, Mitt Romney will headline a major national tea party rally.

On Labor Day the Republican presidential candidate will join the Tea Party Express' "Reclaiming America" bus tour in Manchester, New Hampshire, organizers tell CNN.

Romney en la convención de Veterans of Foreign Wars

Romney ha criticado la política de seguridad nacional anémica de Obama, ha expresado su oposición a la propuesta de la administración de recortar en 400,000 millones el presupuesto de Defensa, y ha defendido que su experiencia en el sector privado lo convierte en el candidato más cualificado para gestionar ese presupuesto.

También se ha referido a su experiencia privada para lanzar lo que ha sido interpretado como una crítica velada a Perry.

"Yo soy un empresario conservador. He hecho la mayor parte de mi vida fuera de la política, tratando problemas reales en la economía real. Los políticos de carrera nos han llevado a este desastre y símplemente no saben cómo sacarnos."

Perry se escapa en Carolina del Sur

Viendo los últimos resultados de Public Policy Polling para la primaria republicana de Carolina del Sur podemos concluir que SC es para Perry lo que NH para Romney.

There might not be a state that betters symbolizes the fundamental shift that's occurred in the Republican Presidential race over the last few months than South Carolina.

When PPP last polled there in early June, Mitt Romney led everyone in the field by at least 15 points. But now with Rick Perry's entry Romney has lost almost half of his support. That leaves Perry with a 20 point lead- he's at 36% to 16% for Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Herman Cain, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 5% for Ron Paul, 4% for Rick Santorum, and 2% for Jon Huntsman.

Voters on the far right side of the Republican spectrum have been dying for a candidate they can call their own and Perry is filling that void. With folks describing themselves as 'very conservative,' which is the largest segment of the GOP electorate in South Carolina, Perry's at 44% to 14% for Bachmann, with Romney mired in single digits at 9%.

La historia dice que el que gana la primaria de Carolina del Sur gana la nominación republicana (lo hicieron Reagan, Bush, Dole, Bush y McCain). Para tranquilidad de Romney hay que señalar que ésa es sólo una historia de 30 años ya que esta primaria fue establecida en 1980 como primera primaria sureña en el calendario, lo que sí nos da una idea del grado de influencia que ha adquirido el Sur en el GOP de las últimas décadas y eso ya no sé si es tan tranquilizador para Romney.

Fotos de campaña: Goldwater en Sunset Boulevard

El Senador Barry Goldwater se dirige a sus seguidores en la piscina del Hotel Beverly Hills de Sunset Boulevard, en el condado de Los Angeles, en primavera de 1964.

Goldwater se encuentra en una cerrada lucha por la nominación republicana con el Gobernador Nelson Rockefeller. La primaria de California se considera vital con sus 86 delegados que serán adjudicados en bloque al ganador, y la clave estará en el condado de Los Angeles que representa el 36% del total del voto estatal. Goldwater da por perdidos más de 50 de los 58 condados del estado, pero sabe que ganará en los populosos San Diego y Orange, y todo dependerá de L.A.

Perry en su tradicional fuente de dólares

Después de recaudar dólares en Colorado y Oklahoma, Rick Perry celebra hoy sus primeros dos grandes eventos de recaudación de fondos (oficiales) en territorio de Texas: al mediodía una comida en Fort Worth y por la noche un gran evento en el Hotel Fairmont de Dallas dividido en tres partes según lo que se pague, con una recepción general para todos, una recepción VIP para los donantes más generosos, y una cena privada. Serán actos cerrados a la prensa.

KERA-TV de Dallas:

Perry is in north Texas today raising funds to fuel his Presidential bid. That's typical, says SMU Political Scientist Cal Jillson, because presidential hopefuls of any party come here for money. Perry has 20 years of Texas fundraising resources.

Jillson: He will make very heavy use of Texas because that's where his donor list is thickest, and so he can go around Texas and pick the low-hanging fruit.

Perry's spokesperson says fundraising events in Fort Worth and Dallas will be closed to the media. Jillson says that's typical too.

Jillson: Fundraising is to some extent is nasty business when you show it publicly. So the candidates like to speak directly to those who have the ability to give large amounts of money. And they don't necessarily want to be seen doing it, they want their public events public and their private events as private as possible.

Jillson says donors don't necessarily want to be seen publicly either. In addition, candidates sometimes say in private what they would not say in public.

Además de los eventos programados para esta semana, su campaña también ha confirmado seis eventos en California (San Diego, Los Angeles y Silicon Valley) para la segunda semana de septiembre.

El esquema será el mismo: entradas de 1,000 dólares para cenar, el máximo permitido de 2,500 por cabeza para tener recepción VIP y hacerse fotos con el candidato, y los recaudadores que consigan reunir personas que sumen más de 50,000 dólares tendrán ocasión de ser anfitriones de su propio evento y más privilegios VIP.

@PerryTruthTeam

@PerryTruthTeam es una cuenta de twitter creada recientemente por el equipo del Gobernador Perry que se dedicará a rebatir y corregir los errores o informaciones falsas que publiquen los medios sobre el candidato.

The Dallas Morning News:

By no means is Rick Perry the first politician to use social media on the campaign trail. But he's one of the first to bring an age-old campaign tactic to Twitter: attacking/defending using campaign surrogates.

Perry's campaign in recent days has set up an official satellite Twitter account, @PerryTruthTeam, that, so far, has sent out tweets attacking President Obama's record or pointing to mistakes in news coverage that is unfavorable to Perry.

Accuracy in Media, a conservative media blog, describes the account as a "truth squad" that will "attempt to correct errors in the mainstream media about the GOP presidential hopeful." In one tweet (embedded above), for instance, the account calls out New York Times columnist Paul Krugman about jobs data that questioned Perry's record.

El éxito de Bachmann con los donantes judíos

El New York Post se hace eco de las dificultades que están encontrando en Team Romney con los donantes judíos por el rumor de que Bachmann es judía:

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is facing a new challenge: He's having trouble raising money from some Jewish donors who mistakenly believe one of his opponents, Michele Bachmann, is Jewish.

Some Jewish donors are telling fund-raisers for Romney, a Mormon, that while they like him, they'd rather open their wallets for the "Jewish candidate," who they don't realize is actually a Lutheran, The Post has learned.

(...) Now, with this latest hiccup among Jewish donors, some in Romney's camp have been wondering whether Bachmann and her allies are pushing the "Jewish" rumor to help their own fund-raising, sources said.

She has enjoyed strong popularity among Jewish voters and often talks about her stay on a kibbutz during the summer of 1974, when she was a teenager.

In a speech to the American Israel Political Action Committee last year, Bachmann recalled being guarded by soldiers while working on the kibbutz.

(...) Bachmann also told an AIPAC gathering earlier this year that she and her family make sure each year to attend at least one Jewish-theme play or movie.

El apellido Bachmann es de origen hebreo, de ben chayim, hijo de la vida, con dos n-s deletreado en alemán. Creo.

Recaudación de Romney por estados

Smart Politics ha estudiado la procedencia de las contribuciones a Mitt Romney por estados en el segundo trimestre de 2011.

Utah sigue siendo su estado número uno en donaciones per capita, como ya lo fue hace cuatro años. La novedad está en el segundo puesto de Connecticut (quinto hace cuatro años) que evidencia mayor respaldo del establishment republicano ya que la ciudad de Greenwich en Connecticut es uno de los lugares de refugio de esa élite. En el mismo sentido puede interpretarse la escalada de Nueva York (decimoquinto hace cuatro años) hasta el sexto puesto este año. En el Top-5 se mantienen su estado Massachusetts, el Distrito de Columbia, y Idaho, el segundo mayor bastión mormón de la Unión después de Utah.

Gráfico con los 20 estados que más han donado a Romney:

(hacer clic para ver más grande)

Super PAC pro-Huntsman

POLITICO.com:

Is this the Huntsman family fund we’ve been waiting for?

Our colleagues at POLITICO Influence note today that a new independent expenditure committee, Our Destiny PAC, has been set up to support Jon Huntsman’s presidential campaign. The treasurer is Thomas Muir, whom the New York Times identified over the weekend as a Huntsman Corporation executive.

Muir holds the title of vice president at the company. In addition, he is vice president and treasurer of the Huntsman Cancer Foundation, an organization that Jon Huntsman Sr. founded and currently chairs, and that Jon Huntsman Jr. once ran. So Muir is pretty well embedded in the network of Utah-based Huntsman institutions.

One of the biggest questions about Huntsman’s campaign has been how – if at all – the candidate would leverage his family’s massive fortune in a presidential race. Huntsman put up some of his own money at the start of his bid, but that doesn’t scratch the surface of what his parents could throw into an independent expenditure group. It’s not clear whether Our Destiny PAC is the beginning of that kind of effort or a more standard-issue IE campaign.

Bachmann en Miami, Florida

La Congresista Michele Bachmann concluyó ayer su gira de cuatro días por Florida con la comunidad cubanoamericana de Miami. Primero visitó el Museo de la Asociación de Veteranos de Bahía de Cochinos, siendo nombrada miembro honorífico del mismo, y después tomó un cafesito cubano en el Restaurante Versailles, en la emblemática Calle Ocho, en el corazón de La Pequeña Habana.

Cuando uno quiere tomar el pulso al exilio cubano debe ir al Versailles, un restaurante inaugurado en los años 60 por cubanos que reían, lloraban si querían, y ansiaban la libertad y que desde entonces ha sido punto de encuentro del activismo anti-castrista, de los chicos de Mas Canosa, de espías, de artistas como Celia Cruz y Olga Guillot, de Presidentes (allí han estado Bush varias veces, Reagan o Clinton) y de mandatarios extranjeros cuando están de paso en la ciudad.

Bachmann estuvo acompañada de varios políticos cubanoamericanos como su colega el Congresista David Rivera, el comisionado del condado Esteban Bovo y el legislador estatal Carlos López-Cantera.

El plan de Romney para derrotar a Perry

Marc A. Thiessen (Washington Post) ha estado en contacto con Team Romney y nos explica cual es el plan para ganar a Perry:

Romney’s campaign strategists are certainly spending a lot of time poring over Perry’s positions — and developing a plan to stop the surging Texas governor.

Romney has been criticized for refusing to engage Perry, but his campaign advisers see no need to do so now. They point out that the Democratic National Committee is going after Perry, hundreds of reporters hoping to make names for themselves are scouring his life and record, and other candidates that Perry has passed in the polls are determined to take him down. Why should Romney attack Perry directly when the Democrats, the liberal media and Michele Bachmann will do it for him? Romney’s strategists note that Perry will have to survive five debates in six weeks — ample opportunity for Bachmann to “rip his eyes out” (as she did to Tim Pawlenty) or for Perry to blow himself up.

If Perry fails to implode and continues to surge in the polls, Romney eventually will have to go on the attack — an assault his advisers say will commence “at a time of our choosing.” Romney strategists are quick to note that in his book, “Fed Up!,” Perry writes that “By any measure, Social Security is a failure” and calls the program “something we have been forced to accept for more than 70 years now” that was created “at the expense of respect for the Constitution and limited government.”

Look at what happened to Paul Ryan when he proposed a plan to save Medicare, they say. Romney’s campaign will argue that Perry is against the very idea of Social Security and Medicare, and that he will use Perry’s book to scare seniors in early-primary states with large retiree populations, such as Florida and South Carolina.

The Romney campaign also plans to use immigration to drive a wedge between Perry and his conservative base, by highlighting Perry’s opposition to a border fence and legislation he signed in 2001 allowing the children of illegal immigrants to attend Texas colleges and universities at in-state tuition.

(...) Team Romney intends to undermine Perry’s appeal on the right by painting him as the anti-government candidate who has spent most of his life in government — first as a state legislator, then as agriculture secretary, lieutenant governor and governor.

(...) The Romney campaign will argue that Perry repels independents and can’t win in key swing states such as Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — while Romney can.

Perry promete obligar a Obama a pisar California

Declaraciones de hace unos días en una recaudación de fondos en Aspen, Colorado, recogidas por POLITICO.COM:

I’m not enough of a pollyanna to tell you that somehow we’ve figured out how to carry California, but I promise you the current president will have to go there and campaign.

As a matter of fact, I intend to make him go there and campaign often, because we’re going to have a true message of hope and prosperity. And people of this country, no matter what their political beliefs may be, whether they’re left or right on the scale, they know the future of America is at stake, that getting America back to work is the real key. And that’s what we’re going to be about every day, giving people hope and sharing with them vision to get America working.

Bachmann en Naples, Florida

Fotos de campaña: el candidato reacio

El Gobernador Adlai Stevenson saluda a la muchedumbre mientras sale de su cuartel general para dirigirse al Anphitheatre de Chicago a aceptar la nominación presidencial después de haber sido nominado en la tercera votación por los delegados de la Convención Demócrata de 1952.

Stevenson no había participado en las primarias y se había negado a ser reclutado como candidato hasta la misma convención, pero, gracias a los pactos de trastienda del Presidente Truman, fue elegido por encima de un Estes Kefauver que había logrado más de 3 millones de votos en las primarias.

Perry en la convención de Veterans of Foreign Wars

Veterano de la Fuerza Aérea él mismo, ha agradecido a todos los veteranos por su servicio, con un saludo especial para los héroes de Vietnam.

Ha propuesto como doctrina militar el no enviar tropas a la guerra si no exite un plan de victoria y los recursos necesarios para alcanzarla (es lo que han dicho todos los Presidentes antes de ser Presidentes).

También ha dicho que las tropas americanas no deben ser enviadas bajo el mando de comandantes extranjeros. "Las tropas americanas deberían ser lideradas por comandantes americanos."

(Actualización) El fiscal general de SC apoya a Huntsman

El acto de apoyo ha tenido lugar en el Capitolio de Carolina del Sur, en Columbia.

Huntsman en Fox & Friends

Habla del plan de empleo que presentará el miércoles en New Hampshire adelantándose a Obama y Romney.

Ames dejó la campaña de Pawlenty en números rojos

Huffington Post:

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's exit from the Republican primary was likely hastened by the fact that his presidential campaign was in debt, several sources tell The Huffington Post.

Pawlenty, the sources say, was out of cash, his campaign having spent heavily in the lead-up to Ames, hoping for a better score than what he got.

It's not clear, however, how much debt Pawlenty has actually accrued. Requests for comment to former Pawlenty aides were declined.

One source suggested the campaign's debt was as high as $500,000, but another source with closer knowledge of the campaign deemed that figure far exaggerated. The official tally will be revealed on Oct. 15, when Pawlenty must deliver another filing to the Federal Election Commission. (...)

Sin duda la deuda acumulada precipitó su renuncia a continuar en campaña. De haber continuado habría tenido que endeudarse más e hipotecar su futuro. Nadie lo querría como running-mate y lo tendría difícil para volver a presentarse hasta saldar la deuda. John Glenn tardó 23 años en pagar las deudas de su campaña presidencial de 1984.

El fiscal general de SC apoya a Huntsman

El Gobernador Huntsman se ha hecho con el apoyo del primer oficial constitucional en activo de Carolina del Sur que se ha posicionado en la campaña presidencial. Es el fiscal general del estado Alan Wilson.

CNN:

Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman will pick up the endorsement of South Carolina’s attorney general Monday morning.

Alan Wilson, son of U.S. Rep. Joe Wilson, confirmed to CNN that he is behind the “South Carolina campaign announcement” the Huntsman team released Sunday evening.

The former U.S. ambassador to China and Utah governor will join Wilson for the 10:30 a.m. announcement at the South Carolina Statehouse.

Semana de recaudación de fondos para Perry

Después de un discurso esta mañana en la convención de los Veterans of Foreign Wars en San Antonio (a Romney se le espera mañana), el Gobernador Perry iniciará una intensa gira con eventos de recaudación de fondos en ocho ciudades del suroeste: hoy en Tulsa y Oklahoma City (Oklahoma); mañana en Fort Worth y Dallas (Texas); el miércoles en Austin y Houston (Texas) y en New Orleans (Louisiana); y el jueves en Midland y San Antonio (Texas). La semana pasada celebró sus primeros actos de recolección de fondos en Aspen y Denver (Colorado).

Al ser Gobernador en ejercicio, tendrá que ajustarse a algunas normas de la Comisión de Bolsa y Valores que no se aplican a otros candidatos:

Perry will be hamstrung by new Securities and Exchange Commission rules that inhibit donations from financial services company employees to sitting governors. The regulations are intended to limit contributions that could influence state contracting decisions.

For this and other reasons, Perry is likely to be more reliant on a familiar network of corporate and construction barons and conservative fundraisers who backed his campaigns for governor, as well as a cluster of ‘super PACs,’ the new entities that can legally raise unlimited sums from wealthy donors, including corporations, for independent campaign efforts.

Anita Perry

KXAN-TV, filial de la NBC en Austin, hace un esbozo de la mujer de Rick Perry.

Hija de médico, y enfermera de profesión, la escuela de enfermería de la Texas Tech lleva su nombre.

Es la primera Primera Dama de Texas que estando en el cargo ha tenido un trabajo remunerado aparte de sus obligaciones como esposa del Gobernador.

Bachmann en Sarasota, Florida

Huntsman en Road to the White House (C-SPAN)

Continúa: Parte 2 / Parte 3 / Parte 4

Fotos de campaña: Plains, Georgia

El cuartel general de la campaña presidencial del Gobernador Jimmy Carter en su pueblo natal de Plains, Georgia, en 1976.

Al menos en una primera fase, el equipo de Carter dirigió sus operaciones nacionales desde esta casita que había servido como estación de trenes de Plains desde 1888 hasta 1951, año en que cesó todo transporte público en este pequeño pueblo de pocos cientos de habitantes.

La casa había sido adquirida por la familia Carter años antes para utilizarla como almacén de su granja de cacahuetes. En abril de 1975 fue convertida en cuartel electoral y en escenario habitual de las conferencias de prensa del candidato Carter. Era un edificio demasiado pequeño por lo que mientras la operación crecía hubo que ir habilitando más oficinas en un hotel de Atlanta, la capital del estado.

De esta casa salió en enero de 1977 el "Cacahuete Especial", un tren de Amtrak que llevó a los vecinos del pueblo a la inauguración presidencial de Carter en Washington DC. Fue la única vez que volvió a funcionar como estación de trenes después de 1951.

Ron Paul en Fox News Sunday

Ron Paul en el Polk County GOP Picnic, en Iowa

Perry en el Polk County GOP Picnic, en Iowa

McCotter en el Polk County GOP Picnic, en Iowa

Es Thaddeus McCotter, Congresista por Michigan y candidato presidencial (the-longest-of-long-shots), por si alguien no lo conoce todavía.

Herman Cain es el hijo favorito de Georgia

El empresario superó al especialista Ron Paul en un straw poll organizado por el GOP de Georgia. El otro hijo de Georgia, Newt Gingrich, quedó en cuarto lugar.

– Herman Cain, 232 votos (26%)
– Ron Paul, 229 votos (25.7%)
– Rick Perry, 179 votos (20%)
– Newt Gingrich, 162 votos (18%)
– Mitt Romney, 51 votos (6%)
– Michele Bachmann, 29 votos (3%)
– Rick Santorum, 4 votos (0.4%)
– Jon Huntsman, 3 votos (0.3%)
– Thaddeus McCotter, 1 votos (0.1%)

Rueda de prensa de Perry en West Des Moines, Iowa

Habló sobre la Décima Enmienda y la Seguridad Social.



Y sobre la seguridad fronteriza.

Perry en Ottumwa, Iowa

El Gobernador Perry ofreció un discurso y respondió a preguntas del público en una cafetería de Ottumwa.

"Si estáis a favor del status quo en América, yo no soy vuestro hombre," dijo al público.

Enumeró los empleos destruidos en Iowa desde que Obama es Presidente y recordó que uno de cada ocho habitantes del estado vive de los cupones para alimentos.

Preguntado por una mujer sobre la concepción de la Seguridad Social como un programa de ayuda social, comparó el programa con el esquema Ponzi, una estafa piramidal.

"Es un esquema de Ponzi para la gente joven. La idea de que por estar trabajando y pagando a la Seguridad Social hoy en día, el programa actual va a estar ahí para ellos es una mentira. Es una mentira monstruosa para esta generación, y no podemos hacerles eso."

El coste de la seguridad de Perry permanecerá en secreto hasta las elecciones

Washington Post:

Since Rick Perry joined the presidential race this month, his campaign entourage has included not just the standard array of political advisers and aides, but a squad of Texas law enforcement agents.

The security forces scout and secure locations days in advance. Well before the governor’s visit to Tommy’s Country Ham House in Greenville, S.C., the weekend of Aug. 20, more than a half-dozen suited and armed agents were giving orders to the crowd of more than 400.

How much is this ever-present phalanx of state policemen costing the taxpayers of Texas? They won’t know at least until after next year’s presidential election, thanks to a provision, tucked into a school finance bill in July, that will keep the governor’s travel records sealed for 18 months.

Ron Paul: la respuesta de la FEMA no es necesaria

Coincidiendo con la amenaza del Huracán Irene sobre la Costa Este, el Congresista Ron Paul pide a la FEMA (Agencia Federal para el Manejo de Emergencias) que no meta sus narices en el asunto.

"Deberíamos ser como en 1900... Yo vivo en la costa del Golfo (de México). Hemos tratado con huracanes toda la vida. Galveston está en mi distrito... No hay nada mágico en la FEMA. Son una gran contribución al déficit y sinceramente no tienen un penique en el banco. Deberíamos estar coordinados pero coordinados voluntariamente con los estados. Un estado puede decidir. No necesitamos a alguien en Washington."

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

No reaccionar sobremanera y esperar a ser el nominado por defecto

Es lo que le recomienda Ross Douthat (New York Times) a Romney:

The first primary isn’t for four months — an eternity in politics. Perry has been exposed to the national spotlight for all of two weeks. He hasn’t shared a stage with the other candidates yet, hasn’t spent much time on the trail, hasn’t had to wed the vision of his candidacy to the more perishable reality of a campaign. In the next round of debates, Michele Bachmann and the lesser right-wing contenders will have every incentive to attack Perry, because he’s siphoning away their kind of voter. If Sarah Palin gets into the race (which I still doubt), she’ll have to take the fight to Perry as well. Meanwhile, unless Jon Huntsman starts getting traction, Romney doesn’t have to worry about any of the rival candidates making a play for his core supporters. (If Perry is the only plausible alternative, the Massachusetts governor has the moderate-East Coast vote locked up.) And once it becomes clear that Chris Christie (alas!) isn’t riding over the hill to save them, he can probably count on a steady drumbeat of favorable press from a movement-conservative establishment that’s heretofore been keeping him at arm’s length. So why not wait and see a little bit, let Perry have his moment in the sun, and save his punches for the months when more voters start to pay attention?

The greatest danger to Romney’s candidacy — the thing that could destroy him long before the voting even started — has always been that a more appealing establishment candidate would enter the race, catch fire, and swipe his core constituency out from under him. But so far, the men who could have played this role have either passed on the race entirely (Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Haley Barbour, Jon Thune), flamed out early (Tim Pawlenty), or failed to move the needle (Huntsman). This has left Romney in exactly the position he wanted to occupy: He’s the most electable guy in the field, and he’s probably going to be the default choice for an establishment that can live with him even if it doesn’t love him.

Los asesinos de Kennedy (5)

Episodio Los testigos en tres partes.



Continúa: Parte 2 / Parte 3

Bachmann en Jacksonville, Florida

Participó en un acto del First Coast Tea Party en una cafetería de la playa.

Prometió desmantelar la EPA (Agencia de Protección Medioambiental) porque cree que destruye empleos, y el Departamento de Educación que no existía hasta que Jimmy Carter lo creó en 1979 como pago a los sindicatos por su apoyo.

NH Journal entrevista a Ron Paul

Después de un desayuno con votantes en una cafetería de Portsmouth, New Hampshire.

Segundo viaje de Perry a Iowa

Esta tarde hará dos paradas en el estado.

Des Moines Register:

Texas Gov. Rick Perry is adding an Ottumwa stop today before his speech at a Polk County GOP forum.

This will be the second trip to Iowa for Perry, who announced his candidacy in South Carolina on the day of the Iowa straw poll.

The Ottumwa stop will be a meet and greet at 3:05 p.m. at the Vine Coffeehouse, 1207 N. Jefferson St.

He ends his day at a Polk County GOP picnic, from 5 to 7:30 p.m. at Jalapeño Pete’s at the Iowa State Fairgrounds. Fellow Republican presidential candidates Ron Paul and Thaddeus McCotter are also scheduled to speak.

Perry, líder en menciones online, para bien y para mal

Washington Post:

Mentions of Perry in the 5,000-plus online media outlets General Sentiment monitors soared to nearly 90,000 from Aug. 18, the date of our last Mention Machine post, through Aug. 26.

Over the same period, Romney registered a relatively puny 15,150 mentions, nearly six times less than Perry’s number.

Perry was also dominating the conversation on social-media channels, including blogs, Facebook and Twitter during that time period. Perry was mentioned 30,365 times on social media since last Thursday, while Romney got 3,231 mentions on the same media, amounting to a mere one-tenth of Perry’s attention.



(...) What about the tone of those talking about Romney and Perry on Twitter or Facebook, commenting on blogs or writing articles about them? General Sentiment assigned a score to each mention of the candidates on the entire Web (both social and news media) to determine negative or positive sentiment on a scale of negative ten to positive ten.

The winner? Romney came out ahead of Perry in a landslide with a net positive score of 218, while Perry had a net positive of 66. The scores, however, varied significantly according to the days on which they were measured.

Romney only spent one of the eight days we monitored sentiment in negative territory, earning a negative 31 this past Sunday. However, Perry ended the day with negative net scores three times, bottoming out at negative 40 on Wednesday.



The sentiment scores indicate that being on top may come with a higher negative price tag. But in Perry’s case, it looks as if a bright, albeit harsh spotlight, may well be worth it. Only time will truly tell.

Fotos de campaña: el burro Jack

El burro Jack no parece impresionado con la noticia de que Richard Nixon ha sido nominado por la Convención Republicana de 1968.

El burro como símbolo y mascota del Partido Demócrata se remonta a la elección de 1828, cuando los detractores de Andrew Jackson le llamaban burro despectivamente por su carácter terco y este respondió utilizando el burro en sus materiales de campaña y convirtiendo su testarudez en una cualidad positiva.

Sábado con donantes y líderes evangélicos

First Read (MSNBC):

A week after he wrapped up his opening campaign swing through three primary states, Gov. Rick Perry will reportedly huddle Saturday with donors and evangelical supporters at a Fredericksburg, Texas ranch.

The event is to be held at the ranch of Jim Leininger, a San Antonio physician and school voucher advocate who has long been a financial backer of Perry's. A search of the Texas Tribune's campaign finance tracker shows that Leininger has given Perry over $200,000 in contributions since 2000.

Per the Dallas Morning News: "In some quarters, he's seen as saving Perry's political career with a last-minute infusion of $1.1 million to fuel Perry's 1998 victory as lieutenant governor. Perry was in a tight race against Democrat John Sharp when Leininger guaranteed the $1.1 million loan to Perry's campaign. That allowed a $1 million advertizing blitz and helped him squeak out a victory."

Other attendees at the meeting will include, the Morning News reports: Southern Baptist leader Paul Pressler, WallBuilders founder David Barton, and evangelist Rick Scarborough.

Perry: Washington es un lugar de mala muerte

Reuters:

"Look, I am not an establishment figure -- never have been and frankly I don't want to be. I dislike Washington. I think it's a seedy place," he said.

Creo que en DC no le van a votar...

La prudente estrategia de Romney en peligro

Hasta ahora la estrategia del Gobernador Romney se ha basado en ataques diarios contra Obama y en la no intervención contra sus rivales republicanos. Con la llegada de Perry puede verse obligado a cambiar.

Reuters:

(...) "So far he (Romney) has really played it safe. I really think that strategy can't continue with Rick Perry in the race," said Krystal Ball, a Democratic strategist and former Congressional contender in Virginia.

"If Romney is going to stay in the game, he has to take more risks."

(...) "So far, the Romney strategy to not be reactive to the 'flavor of the week' is smart. But it's only in hindsight when we know if someone was a flash in the pan or not," said Franklin, a professor at the University of Wisconsin.

(...) "My sense is that Romney's strategy is based on the assumption that Bachmann, Perry and others, even Rick Santorum, will fight it out among themselves," said Donna Robinson Divine, professor of government at Smith College in Northampton, Massachusetts.

"Then, Romney will be able to claim that he is focusing on the real issue -- capturing the White House. It has been a sound strategy. Whether he has to change it at this point is unclear."

Divine said the danger is that Romney's campaign could lose control of the message; this week's pro-Perry opinion polls could be the start of such a trend.

"The polls create a certain narrative that could force Romney to change tactics," said Divine.

(...) Ultimately, though, strategists think Romney, who has a large campaign funding warchest, will be ready for hand-to-hand combat if he needs to.

"I suspect if he sees Perry approaching some kind of tipping point, Romney will engage him," said Divine. (...)

Pataki no se presenta

CNN:

Former New York Gov. George Pataki will not run for the Republican presidential nomination, a source close to him told CNN.

Pataki, who had been flirting with a White House bid for months, was scheduled to appear this weekend in the key early voting state of Iowa.

Speculation was that the former three-term governor would announce his candidacy Saturday at the Polk County Republican fundraiser.

But the source said that Pataki, who seriously considered running, has decided instead to forgo a run for the GOP nomination.

Los asesinos de Kennedy (4)

Episodio El chivo expiatorio.

Ver video.

Huntsman en Your World (Fox News)

GOBERNADOR HUNTSMAN: "Me gustan mis posibilidades. Si esta (las encuestas) hubiera sido la realidad en 2008, Fred Thomson sería Presidente. Howard Dean hubiera sido Presidente en 2004. ¿Cuántos front-runners hemos tenido ya en varios meses? Probablemente cuatro o cinco. Nadie está prestando atención, nadie está sintonizado con la excepción de las personas de dentro. Me gustan nuestras posibilidades porque nuestro mensaje es franco, es honesto, está basado en mi historial y en una conversación de sentido común con la gente que está sufriendo una tormenta económica de categoría cinco en este país."

Huntsman en NewsHour (PBS) (entrevista completa)

Bachmann en North Charleston, Carolina del Sur

Town hall meeting de Bachmann con el Congresista Tim Scott.

Romney en Exeter, New Hampshire

Romney habla del criterio para escoger running-mate: que sea alguien que pueda ser Presidente.

Huntsman en NewsHour (PBS)

GOBERNADOR HUNTSMAN: "Como Presidente no titubearía para pedir un sacrificio a toda nuestra gente, incluso a aquellos que están en lo más alto de la gama de ingresos. No hablo de subir impuestos, digo que hay contribuciones que también ellos pueden hacer."

Todo apunta a que Pataki anunciará el sábado en Iowa

The Iowa Republican:

Former three-term Governor George Pataki (R – N.Y.) has confirmed that he will not only be speaking at this Saturday’s Polk County Republican Picnic and Road to the White House 2012 Presidential Forum, but that he may have “a major announcement” to make.

If Pataki will announce he will be running for President, it could not have come at a worse time for front runner Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts. With recent Iowa, New Hampshire, and now national polls showing Conservative Texas Governor Rick Perry may be stealing the front-runner label, Romney simply can’t afford to start splitting the party establishment vote with the more moderate Pataki.

The biggest impact in Iowa though (where Romney is not currently campaigning), could be how the Iowa Republican establishment reacts. Governor Terry Branstad and his allies, known to be more idealogically moderate, looked to be signaling recently that they might be inclined to support the Texas Governor, despite Perry’s Tea Party credentials. Will the Brandstad group, who has already tried to lure New Jersey Governor Chris Christie into the race, instead get behind Pataki; the lone, viable moderate who will be running in our state?

Fotos de campaña: protección

El Servicio Secreto rodea al candidato Jesse Jackson mientras concede una entrevista en la pista de un aeropuerto, durante la campaña por la nominación demócrata de 1984.

Sigue la incertidumbre sobre el calendario de primarias

First Read (MSNBC):

*** Calendar chaos? The GOP presidential field is mostly set, the future debates (including our NBC-Politico one on Sept. 7) are scheduled, and the full-fledged campaigning has already begun. The one thing we’re missing: an actual primary calendar. According to Republicans monitoring this subject, there are two different timeline scenarios. The first is the RNC-sanctioned February start date: Iowa goes Feb. 6, New Hampshire Feb. 14, Nevada, Feb. 18, South Carolina Feb. 28, and Super Tuesday is March 6. The second is the more chaotic January (or even December) start date: States like Arizona and Florida -- risking losing half their delegates and other penalties -- set their primaries early, pushing Iowa, New Hampshire, and other states into January or earlier. Which scenario is more likely? Although this remains a fluid situation, one plugged-in Republican eyeing the calendar process for one of the campaigns says there’s a “99%” chance it begins in early January instead of February. So start making your New Year’s Eve plans in Des Moines now. Or at least buy refundable air tickets.

*** So when will we know? Per NBC’s John Bailey, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) must announce the date of her state’s primary at least 150 days in advance. So if she wants to set it on Jan. 31, which seems to be the case, the announcement has to come on or before Sept. 2. Meanwhile, Florida’s committee to select a primary date has until Oct. 1 to determine a date. (Oct. 1 is the RNC’s deadline for a state changing its primary/caucus date.)

*** And how long will it last? There are also two scenarios for how long the primary season will last. One is the early knockout -- like in ‘04 -- when John Kerry essentially wrapped up the Democratic nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire. And two is the long, bloody battle -- a la ’08 -- when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton duked it out until June. Given that the earlier states will award their delegates proportionally and given that the later states (like California in June) can be winner-take-all, there’s an increasingly likelihood that the GOP nomination fight won't mathematically end until May or June. That could either help the eventual nominee (Obama's long primary season helped put Indiana and North Carolina into play), or hurt him/her (with just five months to focus on the general election against a sitting president).

*** A final calendar point to chew on: You could argue that the still-fluid primary calendar might benefit Perry, if the race (as expected) turns into a Romney-vs.-Perry battle. Consider that many of the post-Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina contests will take place in the South. For instance, Super Tuesday on March 6 will feature Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. (It also features Massachusetts and Vermont.) The next week brings us primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. Then on March 24 comes Louisiana. And to see Perry's strength in the South, just look at the latest Gallup poll, which shows him leading Romney in the South, 39% to 12%. The good news for Romney: He has the money advantage (which helps in a long race) and these states will award delegates proportionally (which allows him to rack up delegates even if he loses the state). But you can see how important Florida -- whenever that primary occurs -- will be to Romney and his momentum heading into those Super Tuesday (and beyond) states.

Más sobre el discurso de Palin el 3 de septiembre en Iowa

ABC News:

(...) Peter Singleton, the head of the Iowa chapter of the independently run group Organize4Palin who moved to the state almost a year ago to volunteer for the non-campaign, said he doesn’t think Palin will make an explicit announcement Sept. 3. But he believes it will be “clear” from her “major” and “important” speech that Palin is getting into the race.

Singleton said he thinks the speech will start a “conversation with the American people” and focus on “who we are as a people and what’s at stake in this election and what the primary debate will be on our side.” He said he believes the speech will “lay out her vision for the country, returning to the vision of the founders,” something Palin often speaks about.

Singleton spoke like a soldier waiting to be called into battle.

“We are just soldiers holding on to a patch of ground,” he said of Organize4Palin’s volunteers. “We will know when the general is in when we hear the jets roar overhead. We will be ready when she gets in. We are pouring over our maps of the drop zone.”

And, to Singleton, they are working independently of the “general.”

“The general is doing what she needs to do,” he said. “We don’t worry about the general, we worry about our job.” (...)

De Gobernador de NY a Presidente

Ante la que parece inminente entrada del Gobernador George Pataki en la carrera presidencial, Your News Now repasa la historia de los Gobernadores de Nueva York en elecciones presidenciales. Cuatro llegaron a Presidente cuando el estado era de largo el más poblado de la Unión, pero desde que perdió esa condición en favor de estados como California y Texas los políticos de NY han casi desaparecido de las campañas nacionales.

If recent history is any guide, former Governor Pataki probably won't become the 45th President of the United States. New Yorker's haven't fared well in presidential runs since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was in the White House in the 40s.

As former Governor George Pataki prepares for a possible presidential campaign, he could join an exclusive list of governors who moved from Albany's Eagle Street to D.C.'s Pennsylvania Avenue. There's Roosevelts Teddy and Franklin, Grover Cleveland and Martin Van Buren.

"We have a long history that says anyone who moves into Eagle Street, whether he or she likes it or not, and we're yet to have a she, they are immediately considered to be potentially the next president or vice president of the United States. It's a rich tradition," Assemblyman Jack McEneny said.

But then there's another, longer list of New York governors who made White House runs and failed. Charles Evans Hughes lost to Woodrow Wilson. Al Smith lost to Herbert Hoover. William Seward lost to Abraham Lincoln.

And no, Governor Tom Dewey did not defeat Harry Truman. Nelson Rockefeller ran three times for the Republican nomination to no avail. He was later appointed vice president by Gerald Ford.

Rockefeller is the last New York governor to actually launch a presidential campaign. In fact, the Hall of Governors here in the Capitol could be considered a Hall of Also-Rans. Nearly every governor elected in the last century has at least thought of running for president. Averill Harriman considered it, as did Hugh Carey. Mario Cuomo was famously called Hamlet on the Hudson for wavering on whether to launch a campaign. He ultimately declined. New York hasn't seen a governor nominated by a major party since 1948, coinciding with the state's loss of clout on the national level.

"The population has shifted. We invented air conditioning. We sent it down South. People began to look at Texas and Florida. Now they're up there with the top states and you watched the shift of power and industry follow the air conditioning to the South," McEneny said. (...)

Por qué Rick Perry no es Wesley Clark o Fred Thompson

Viendo el irresistible ascenso de Rick Perry en los sondeos nacionales para la nominación republicana se hace imposible eludir la comparación con dos casos recientes.

El General Wesley Clark fue el último en incorporarse a la competición por la nominación demócrata de 2004. Anunció candidatura el 17 de septiembre de 2003 y se unió a un pelotón liderado por un Howard Dean al que todavía no se tomaba demasiado en serio.

Los medios introdujeron a Clark como la opción ideal para enfrentar a Bush en una campaña dominada por la guerra y la política exterior. Tuvo un protagonismo mediático desmedido en las semanas previas e inmediatamente posteriores a su entrada y rápidamente se colocó en cabeza en Gallup.



Hace cuatro años tuvimos un caso similar con el ex Senador Fred Thompson que entraba en la carrera el 6 de septiembre de 2007 para saciar la necesidad de las bases republicanas de tener un candidato ideológicamente más puro. No llegó a encabezar las encuestas pero debutó con un impresionante 22% como principal alternativa conservadora a Giuliani.



Clark y Thompson cayeron a la misma velocidad que surgieron. En seis semanas todo volvió a donde estaba antes de su llegada.

¿Puede repetirse con Perry? Puede. Pero hay una diferencia: Clark no era un político y se empezó a sentir perdido en una campaña exigente; Fred Thompson llevaba un lustro retirado de la política y su última campaña se remontaba a 1996; y Rick Perry es un político, ha competido y ganado en 9 elecciones, desde 1984 hasta la actualidad ha tenido una elección cada dos o cuatro años, la última en 2010 con una dura primaria además de la elección estatal.

Los asesinos de Kennedy (3)

Episodio El encubrimiento.

Bush contará el 11-S tal como él lo vivió

El 28 de agosto National Geographic estrenará George W. Bush: The 9/11 Interview, un documental sin más narración que las respuestas del Presidente Bush a preguntas de Peter Schnall sobre sus recuerdos de aquel día que definió su Presidencia.

Un adelanto.

Estrategia de Romney y posibles escenarios

Nate Silver (New York Times):

Mr. Romney retains a reasonably large lead in New Hampshire for now. The danger is that, if Mr. Perry were to win Iowa convincingly, he could clear the field of other conservative candidates. New Hampshire has a lot of moderate and independent voters — but it is still majority conservative. And although Mr. Romney holds a solid lead over each of the individual conservatives, he does not hold a lead over them collectively: Mr. Perry, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich together have in excess of 50 percent of the vote there, based on a trendline constructed from recent polls of the state, as compared to 34 percent for Mr. Romney. If, for example, Mr. Perry were to knock out Mrs. Bachmann, Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Cain by winning Iowa, picking up most of their votes, the New Hampshire contest would become very tight.



Mr. Romney has adopted a slow-and-steady strategy since the beginning of the campaign, one which has de-emphasized Iowa. Instead, the idea would be to pick up delegates in the early going in friendly territory, particularly in caucus states where his organizational and monetary advantages should give him some help. Although the race might remain tight for the first month or two of the primary campaign, Mr. Romney would then hope to grab some big prizes once states started to vote on a winner-take-all basis in the spring, including large coastal states where Mr. Romney’s relative moderation could be an advantage.

But the linchpin of that strategy has always been New Hampshire. If Mr. Romney does not win there, Republicans may decide that although Mr. Perry is not an optimal general election candidate, Mr. Romney has fallen too far behind him and it is best to rally around Mr. Perry rather than having a prolonged and bloody primary battle. There is also some chance that another moderate candidate who had performed relatively well in New Hampshire, like Mr. Huntsman or Mr. Giulaini, could lay claim to being the alternative to Mr. Perry. On a more fundamental level, the question would be how Mr. Romney could hope to beat Mr. Perry elsewhere on the map if he hadn’t beaten him in New Hampshire, which ought to be among Mr. Romney’s best states.

These concerns would be less acute for Mr. Romney if a candidate like Mrs. Bachmann won Iowa. She has less of a national profile and her victory might be viewed as more of a one-off. Mr. Perry, for instance, could well survive a second or third place finish there, hoping to regroup in South Carolina or Florida. That means that Mrs. Bachmann and Mr. Perry would continue to split the conservative vote for some period of time, allowing Mr. Romney to clear his New Hampshire hurdle at a minimum.

Unfortunately for Mr. Romney, Mr. Perry’s national surge does show some signs of transferring into Iowa. The only poll there since he officially entered the race shows him ahead of Mrs. Bachmann, with 21 percent of the vote to her 15 percent, with Mr. Romney stuck in between at 18 percent.

The question for Mr. Romney is whether his New Hampshire lead is robust enough to survive a win by Mr. Perry in Iowa. If not, Mr. Romney will need to involve himself more in Iowa. (...)