Romney, Perry niegan estar detrás de la historia de POLITICO

The Daily Caller:

With questions swirling about whether Politico’s Sunday night article exposing allegations of sexual harassment against GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain in the 1990s was an attack from the left or the right, Texas Governor Rick Perry’s campaign emphasized to The Daily Caller on Monday that the candidate now trailing Cain in the polls had nothing to do with the story.

“Not true,” Perry spokesman Mark Miner wrote in an email to TheDC when queried about speculation that the Perry campaign had anything to do with the report which charges that as CEO of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s Cain was accused of sexual harassment by two unnamed females.

Some observers are already pointing out that with GOP candidates jockeying to position themselves as the anti-Mitt Romney, Perry — who is currently trailing Cain in national polls and even slightly in his home state of Texas – would be the most likely to benefit from a Cain downfall.

Sunday night, following Politico’s publication of the article, on Fox News Channel’s “Geraldo at Large” conservative pundit Ann Coulter and liberal commentator Juan Williams gave dueling hypotheses over who was behind the article.

Coulter alleged that it was liberals who fear “strong, conservative black men.” Williams asserted that it is the Republican establishment.

“The negative research is in overdrive right now. Here is where Ann Coulter and I are going to go head to head,” said Williams. “She points to the liberals; they have been after Herman Cain. They have been saying he’s a bad apple….The news here is not about the liberal establishment. This is coming out of conservative precincts. This is the conservative Republican establishment going after Herman Cain because he’s lasting too long and is too much of a threat.”

Whoever was behind the story, the Perry camp is explicitly denying that it had anything to do with the Sunday story that Cain panned as “baseless” on Monday.

The Perry campaign added that it does not plan to issue a statement on the allegations against Cain.

Update: Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul firmly denied that the Romney campaign had any involvement with the story to TheDC Monday afternoon.

Cain contará más detalles esta noche en On The Record

La entrevista ha sido grabada hace unas horas y se emitirá esta noche en Fox News.

Byron York (Washington Examiner) ha tenido acceso a algunos detalles:

Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain for the first time has offered a detailed recollection of what led an employee of the National Restaurant Association to lodge a sexual harassment charge against him when he was CEO of the organization.

Cain spoke in response to detailed questioning from Fox News' Greta van Susteren, who led Cain through the facts of the case in an extended interview. That interview was taped to be shown on Fox Monday night.

Cain told van Susteren that he remembered one woman who was a writer in the Association's communications department. "I can't even remember her name, but I do remember the formal allegation she made in terms of sexual harassment," Cain said. "I turned it over to my general counsel and one of the ladies that worked for me, the woman in charge of human resources. They did investigate…and it was found to be baseless."

Van Susteren asked Cain how often he saw the woman. "I might see her in the office because her office was on the same floor as my office," Cain said. Van Susteren asked whether the woman traveled with Cain, who spent a lot of time on the road speaking to restaurant associations around the country. "No, never," Cain said.

Cain said the woman was "younger than I was," but he could not recall her age. Pressed, he said, "It would have had to have been late 30s, early 40s."

Van Susteren asked what Cain did that led to the accusation. There were reportedly more than one accusations in the complaint, but Cain said he recalled just one incident. "She was in my office one day, and I made a gesture saying -- and I was standing close to her -- and I made a gesture saying you are the same height as my wife. And I brought my hand up to my chin saying, 'My wife comes up to my chin.'" At that point, Cain gestured with his flattened palm near his chin. "And that was put in there [the complaint] as something that made her uncomfortable," Cain said, "something that was in the sexual harassment charge."

Van Susteren asked whether the woman complained at the time. "I can't recall any comment that she made, positive or negative."

Cain also offered new information about the settlement of the case. Politico, which broke the sexual harassment allegation story, said that the woman received a money settlement "in the five-figure range." When van Susteren asked about that, Cain said, "My general counsel said this started out where she and her lawyer were demanding a huge financial settlement…I don't remember a number…But then he said because there was no basis for this, we ended up settling for what would have been a termination settlement." When van Susteren asked how much money was involved, Cain said. "Maybe three months' salary. I don't remember. It might have been two months. I do remember my general counsel saying we didn't pay all of the money they demanded."

As for reports that a second woman also complained about his behavior, Cain said, "I am totally unaware as to any formal charges coming from this other person." Cain said he was told the woman's name by reporters at Politico. "I have no knowledge that she made a formal complaint," Cain said.

Cain told van Susteren that the woman worked in the Restaurant Association's government affairs department, working with the group's political action committee. He said he seldom saw her. As to the allegation that he might have made what Politico quoted as "an unwanted sexual advance" during a trip to Chicago, Cain said, "When we were at the restaurant show, I was constantly talking with different staff members about different issues. If I had a private conversation with her, I don't recall it."

"Weather Vane"

Y mientras todos miramos a Herman Cain, la campaña continúa.

El Gobernador Jon Huntsman sigue su particular cruzada anti-Romney en New Hampshire, su pequeño universo, con el lanzamiento de una web ad que plasma en imágenes lo que el otro día dijo en una entrevista: que Romney es como "una veleta perfectamente lubricada."

El video se incluye en la serie iniciada con el mono que daba volteretas hacia atrás, y está claro que busca lograr un efecto viral en internet.

Cuidado con Perry en Wisconsin, señor Presidente

Rasmussen dice que Wisconsin (ganado por Obama por 14 puntos en 2008) es hoy un estado competitivo. Y por alguna misteriosa razón que desconozco, Rick Perry lo hace especialmente bien allí.

Y canta

Cain se ha arrancado a cantar He Looked Beyond My Faults en el National Press Club.

Dice así:

Amazing Grace .. Siempre será mi canto de alabanza.
Porque fue la gracia, que me trajo la libertad,
No sé, por qué Jesus vino a amarme así.
Miró más allá de mis faltas y vio mi necesidad.

Cain se defiende en el National Press Club

La aparición de Herman Cain en el National Press Club estaba pensada para hablar de política fiscal, pero todo lo relativo a la historia de POLITICO.com es lo que quedará registrado:

"Número uno, en toda mi experiencia de 40 años en los negocios, nunca he acosado sexualmente a nadie. Número dos, mientras estaba en la Asociación Nacional de Restaurantes, fui acusado de acoso sexual. Fálsamente acusado, debo añadir. Fui fálsamente acusado de acoso sexual, y cuando los cargos fueron presentados, como líder de la organización, me recusé a mí mismo y dejé que el consejero general y la oficina de recursos humanos lo trataran. Y se concluyó después de la investigación que no tenía base."

Preguntado sobre si tiene alguna idea de si la campaña de alguno de sus rivales está detrás de la historia, ha dicho que lo desconoce: "No tengo ni idea. No conocemos la fuente que está detrás de esta caza de brujas, que es lo que realmente es."

Fotos de campaña: truco o trato

Dos chicos con máscaras de Jimmy Carter y Ronald Reagan, preparados para salir a pedir golosinas y caramelos en la noche de Halloween de 1980. Faltan cuatro días para las elecciones.

Huckabee nos recuerda cómo funcionan estas cosas

The Huffington Post:

When asked on Laura Ingraham's radio show Monday morning if it was likely the scoop was provided by another Republican campaign, Huckabee agreed with the suspicion and questioned the legitimacy of the Politico report, saying, "Quite frankly, knowing some of the reporters involved -- they're not that good."

Huckabee recalled similar tactics involved in his own 2008 presidential campaign and accused other campaigns of hiring investigators to dig through his trash and show up at his children's elementary schools posing as federal inspectors.

"It's insane -- one of the fundamental things a candidate will spend money on is [opposition] research," Huckabee told Ingraham.

Cain dice que fue falsamente acusado

En Happening Now (Fox News).

HERMAN CAIN: "Nunca he acosado sexualmente a nadie. Fui acusado falsamente cuando estaba en la Asociación Nacional de Restaurantes y digo falsamente porque, tras la investigación, se demostró que las denuncias eran infundadas."

"Si la Asociación Nacional de Restaurantes llegó a un acuerdo, ni siquiera era consciente de ello y espero que no fuese por mucho. Si hubo un acuerdo, fue manejado por alguno de los otros oficiales de la asociación."

El campaign manager de Cain niega las acusaciones

Mark Block en The Daily Rundown (MSNBC):

"Herman Cain nunca ha acosado sexualmente a nadie. Punto. Fin de la historia. Los únicos que hablaron públicamente sobre la historia en ese artículo son los que estaban en la mejor posición para saberlo."

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Apartando a Cain del mensaje

Esta semana era crucial para Herman Cain para establecerse como candidato importante, con intervenciones programadas en foros públicos capitalinos como el American Enterprise Institute y el National Press Club.

Sea casual o no la fecha elegida por POLITICO.com para lanzar su historia, el primer efecto se ha conseguido: la semana en que Cain se proponía ganar estatura en Washington DC, la tendrá que dedicar a defenderse de la acusación. Las ideas que exponga en esos foros sobre política fiscal pasarán a un completo segundo plano.

El primer ejemplo lo acabamos de tener en el American Enterprise Institute. El único pasaje de su intervención que está ocupando titulares es que se ha negado a comentar la historia de POLITICO.com.

POLITICO abordó a Cain antes de lanzar la historia

POLITICO.com:

In a tense sidewalk encounter Sunday morning outside the Washington bureau of CBS News — where the Republican contender had just completed an interview on “Face the Nation” — Cain evaded a series of questions about sexual harassment allegations.

Cain said he has “had thousands of people working for me” at different businesses over the years and could not comment “until I see some facts or some concrete evidence.” His campaign staff was given the name of one woman who complained last week, and it was repeated to Cain on Sunday. He responded, “I am not going to comment on that.”

He was then asked, “Have you ever been accused, sir, in your life of harassment by a woman?”

He breathed audibly, glared at the reporter and stayed silent for several seconds. After the question was repeated three times, he responded by asking the reporter, “Have you ever been accused of sexual harassment?”

"Doer"

Segundo anuncio de tv de Rick Perry en Iowa.

Gobernador Perry: "Si estáis buscando un político insustancial o un tipo con mucha habilidad con el teleprompter, eso ya lo tenemos y está destruyendo nuestra economía. Yo soy un emprendedor, no un charlatán.

En Texas, hemos creado el 40% de los nuevos empleos de todo el país desde junio de 2009 y hemos recortado un record de 15,000 millones de nuestro presupuesto estatal. Y dicen que no podemos hacerlo en Washington. Bien, están equivocados. Necesitan irse."

Cain supera a Perry en Texas

Encuesta de la Universidad de Texas:

Team Cain se defiende atacando

El portavoz de la campaña de Cain ha emitido este comunicado:

Inside the Beltway media attacks Cain.

Fearing the message of Herman Cain who is shaking up the political landscape in Washington, Inside the Beltway media have begun to launch unsubstantiated personal attacks on Cain.

Dredging up thinly sourced allegations stemming from Mr. Cain’s tenure as the Chief Executive Officer at the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s, political trade press are now casting aspersions on his character and spreading rumors that never stood up to the facts.

Since Washington establishment critics haven't had much luck in attacking Mr. Cain's ideas to fix a bad economy and create jobs, they are trying to attack him in any way they can.

Sadly, we’ve seen this movie played out before – a prominent Conservative targeted by liberals simply because they disagree with his politics.

Mr. Cain -- and all Americans, deserve better.

Cain acusado de "conducta inapropiada" (acoso sexual)

Es una exclusiva de POLITICO.com:

During Herman Cain’s tenure as the head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s, at least two female employees complained to colleagues and senior association officials about inappropriate behavior by Cain, ultimately leaving their jobs at the trade group, multiple sources confirm to POLITICO.

The women complained of sexually suggestive behavior by Cain that made them angry and uncomfortable, the sources said, and they signed agreements with the restaurant group that gave them financial payouts to leave the association. The agreements also included language that bars the women from talking about their departures.

In a series of comments over the past 10 days, Cain and his campaign repeatedly declined to respond directly about whether he ever faced allegations of sexual harassment at the restaurant association. They have also declined to address questions about specific reporting confirming that there were financial settlements in two cases in which women leveled complaints.

POLITICO has confirmed the identities of the two female restaurant association employees who complained about Cain but, for privacy concerns, is not publishing their names.

Continuar leyendo.

Dos palabras: character assassination.

Perry en Fox News Sunday

Iowa, la tentación de Romney

New York Magazine:

The ambivalence toward Iowa on Team Romney is rooted in a history at once recent and terrifically traumatic. In 2008, the former Massachusetts governor spent more than $10 million on the caucuses, blanketing the airwaves with more than 8,000 ads and deploying an army of organizers—on the theory that if he could pull off a victory and then repeat the feat a few days later in New Hampshire, where he had led in the polls for much of 2007, he could effectively pocket the nomination before his rivals even knew what hit them.

But, of course, it was not to be. Instead, Romney was beaten—beaten bloody, beaten senseless—in Iowa by Mike Huckabee, who spent virtually nothing and yet still came away with a stunning nine-point triumph. The loss was humiliating for Romney; moreover, it was crippling. Limping into New Hampshire, he was soundly thumped there by John McCain, and that was pretty much all she wrote.

No surprise, then, that this time around the Romney campaign has pursued a dramatically different strategy in Iowa: a rigorous minimalism replacing the balls-out maximalism of four years ago. In addition to the paucity of in-person visits, Romney has aired no TV ads; declined to participate in the straw poll in August; failed to show up for another major Iowa event (the Faith & Freedom Coalition dinner) last month and will forgo yet another (the state GOP’s annual Ronald Reagan Dinner) this Friday; and employs just a skeleton staff of five (a senior strategist, a state director, and three field staffers). His campaign’s message to Iowa, in other words, hasn’t quite been “Drop dead,” but no one could remotely mistake it for “Let’s roll,” either.

(...) Thus is the situation in Iowa—apparently, potentially—presenting Romney with an unexpected and golden opportunity. With social conservatives split among a handful of candidates, including Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich as well as Perry and Bachmann, a last-­minute burst of organizing and advertising might allow the national front-runner to steal a victory in the caucuses. And if he did, Romney would then be poised to execute the plan that tanked him in 2008: a one-two punch of wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he is far ahead right now, that would probably amount to a knockout blow to Perry, the only candidate in the Republican bunch with the financial wherewithal to wage an extended national primary campaign.

There are three problems with this scenario, however. The first has to do with Romney’s support in Iowa. In 2008, he carried 25 percent of the caucus vote, a proportion nearly identical to the share he currently commands in the Iowa polls. Is this a hard ceiling for him? It may not be: An influx of new, secular, and economically minded caucusgoers might push his total higher. But it may be, and if it is, there is a chance that social conservatives might yet coalesce behind an alternative candidate, boosting him or her to roughly 30 percent of the vote and denying Romney his win.

(...) If Romney decides to go all-in in Iowa, the national story line will shift in a direction that the candidate and his team have successfully kept it from doing all year—making the caucuses, instead of New Hampshire, the first test of his strength, and making central the question of whether Romney can slay the demons of 2008. “Iowa will become all about Mitt the minute he gets in it,” says a Republican operative unaligned with any campaign. “This will tell us whether Mitt Romney has really matured. If he’s grown up into a guy who could be president, he won’t do it. I think Iowa is Lucy and the football for him.”

A number of Romney’s senior advisers are broadly sympathetic to this view. But others are increasingly tempted to take the plunge. Below the radar, Romney’s people in Iowa have labored long and mightily to maintain the network of activists and volunteers who were behind the governor in the last go-round. And with each passing day that the field remains fragmented and Perry remains unable to revivify himself, the lure of Iowa only grows for those in Romney’s Boston brain trust.

Herman Cain en Face The Nation (CBS)

Bachmann en This Week (ABC)

Ron Paul en State of the Union (CNN)

¿Podría Gingrich resucitar a lo McCain?

The Washington Post:

In an election season that already has taken more than its share of unlikely turns, few moments have seemed more improbable than the crowd scene Friday afternoon at a Chick-fil-A along a busy suburban thoroughfare here. At least 400 people jammed the restaurant, leaving those in the back straining to get even a glimpse of a man whose presidential candidacy had been left for dead not five months ago.

Against the glassed-in playground stood Newt Gingrich, microphone in hand, promising: “If you’re with me, I think we will win the most decisive election in modern times, and I think we will win it by a shockingly big margin.”

It is probably stretching things to declare that the former House speaker has made a comeback after the collapse of his debt-ridden campaign in June, when most of his top political operatives abandoned him.

But as the size of the Chick-fil-A throng suggested, there are signs that Republicans are giving Gingrich another look. Fundraising has picked up after his strong debate performances and amid the continued frostiness that many activist Republicans feel toward presumed front-runner Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor.

One by one, hot new alternatives to Romney have arisen and stumbled: first Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, then Texas Gov. Rick Perry. Former Godfather’s Pizza chief executive Herman Cain has shot up in the polls, though his vulnerabilities become more apparent with every news cycle. So more than a few who have been turning out lately to see Gingrich are wondering: Could he be the next would-be Cinderella to try on the not-Romney slippers?

(...) While Gingrich’s political career has seen a series of resurrections and reinventions, his recent setback shook him more deeply than any had before.

(...) “We went through the two worst months in my career. I would say June and July were the hardest months, worse than the two defeats [in his first House races] in ’74 and ’76,” Gingrich said, spooning his way through a bowl of soft-serve ice cream.

Former campaign insiders were giving the media a picture of him as hopelessly undisciplined and gaffe-prone, more interested in selling his books and screening his movies than in campaigning. American Solutions, the once-vast advocacy organization he had established, went out of business.

His income, largely from the sales of his books and movies, fell to “dramatically smaller than it was — more dramatic than we intended would be the right way to put it,” he said. And with the revelation of Gingrich’s six-figure tabs at Tiffany, even his shopping habits became a national punch line.

“We were being beaten up on every front. We were getting beaten up by the media. We had consultants who were leaving us in debt while attacking us, which I thought was astonishingly unprofessional. We were making transitions in our businesses that turned out to be much harder than I thought they would be,” he said. “And because of the intensity of the news media attacks, it became very hard to raise money.”

He said he hadn’t grasped the full extent of his campaign’s financial precariousness, which still included more than $1 million in debt in its third-quarter filing, because “I was looking at cash on hand and didn’t realize they weren’t paying the bills.”

Even the elements were conspiring against him. The August earthquake that left most of the Washington area unscathed did significant damage to his McLean home; days later, Hurricane Irene flooded his basement.

“It’s very funny, because as bad as it got — pretty miserable — [his wife] Callista would say to me, ‘You just have to wait until the debates.’ She said the gamble in this campaign is that when you get into the debates, people will decide you’re real,” Gingrich said.

His performances did get him noticed — this time, in a good way. “You look at Newt Gingrich and you can’t help but have the reaction, ‘Gosh, what could have been?’ ” self-proclaimed kingmaker Rush Limbaugh told his radio listeners after the Sept. 12 debate in Tampa. “Newt was like the adult in the room.”

(...) Gingrich is clearly having a good time, even as he continues to campaign on a shoestring.

“I have no conflicts,” he said. “I have no consultant near me trying to get me to be who I’m not.” His stump speech lasts an hour, touching on an eclectic array of subjects that include brain research and “rebalancing” the judicial system.

As of Thursday morning, he said, his campaign had raised $1 million in October, which is more than it did in the previous months combined. With the new resources, he expects to open five offices in each of the three earliest states — Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — within the next two weeks.

Perry no renunciará a los debates

CNN:

Ending speculation that he planned to skip upcoming presidential debates, Rick Perry announced Saturday he would attend four scheduled debates next month.

Perry committed to debates in Michigan on November 9; South Carolina on November 12; Washington, DC, on November 22; and Arizona on November 30, a Perry spokesman said. He will also attend a November 19 forum in Iowa.

Bachmann en Fairfield, Iowa

Ron Paul en Des Moines, Iowa

DMR: empate técnico en Iowa

Des Moines Register:

Herman Cain and Mitt Romney top The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll, with the retired pizza executive edging the former Massachusetts governor 23 percent to 22 percent in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

(...) In the new poll, Congressman Ron Paul of Texas is the only other candidate in double digits, in third place with 12 percent.

(...) Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, winner of the Iowa straw poll, has seen her popularity wane. In the June Iowa Poll, she enjoyed support of 22 percent of respondents, trailing poll leader Romney by a single percentage point. She has dropped to 8 percent and fourth place in the new poll.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry was not yet a candidate when the June poll was conducted. But he soared to the top of national polls when he entered the race in August. However, after a string of much-criticized debate performances, his star dimmed nationally. He’s at 7 percent in the new Iowa Poll, tied with former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich for fifth place.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has spent more time in Iowa than any other candidate, visiting more than 70 of Iowa’s 99 counties. But at 5 percent support, he continues to lag most of the field.

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who is not campaigning in Iowa, gets 1 percent.

La encuesta del Des Moines Register es la encuesta reina del Caucus de Iowa. Priorizan el factor humano, manejan información precisa de los caucuses de años anteriores, y no sólo suelen clavar el resultado sino también la afluencia de votantes.

Herman Cain en Homewood, Alabama

Gingrich en Greenville, Carolina del Sur

Durante un town hall meeting, Gingrich destacó su experiencia en Washington DC para diferenciarse de Herman Cain.

"Conozco la rama legislativa donde mi historial es razonablemente real y conozco también la rama ejecutiva, y tengo una idea muy clara de lo que no funciona."

Perry en Manchester, New Hampshire

En una recaudación de fondos para Cornerstone Action, un think tank de New Hampshire.

La estrategia sureña de Cain

The Associated Press:

He's doing things his own way.

Cain has carved out an unorthodox — some say impossible — path to the White House, largely eschewing early voting states to focus heavily on the South. It's a region where tea party groups, social conservatives and evangelical voters that make up the backbone of his support hold sway.

Cain hasn't set foot in Iowa or New Hampshire for weeks. Instead, he's barnstormed through Tennessee and Alabama, states that don't hold primaries until March.

"The South looks very, very good for us," Mark Block, Cain's campaign manager, said in an interview with The Associated Press. "Do the early states matter? Of course. But they are not everything."

Block argues that next year's compressed primary calendar means more states will play larger roles. So instead of scurrying around New Hampshire trying to win over skeptics, the campaign team is revving up support in states where Cain's small government, anti-tax message and church revival-style delivery resonate with voters.

Cain was trying to show that in Alabama, where enthusiastic, overflow crowds greeted him at every stop. In Talladega, residents were visibly excited by the first visit from a presidential candidate in modern memory.

"I heard that FDR waved from the train once when he came through," said Jeanne Rasco, who had turned out for a packed Cain rally at a historic theater on the city square. "I think it shows he cares about our values. He's one of us," she said.

Cain himself plays up his Southern roots: His drawl grows a little thicker and he mentions God a little more frequently, to suit the crowd. "I am in Alabama because Alabama matters," Cain said at the state's party headquarters. "Ya'll are my neighbors."

Herman Cain en Birmingham, Alabama

En el popular restaurante Sweet Bones Alabama.



Continúa: Parte 2

30 republicanos y 14 demócratas inscritos en NH

A las 5 de la tarde de ayer se cerró el plazo para inscribirse como candidato en la primaria de New Hampshire.

La oficina del Secretario de Estado de NH, Bill Gardner, ha publicado la lista con todas las candidaturas inscritas. Hay 30 republicanos y 14 demócratas. De la mayoría de ellos no hemos oído hablar en nuestra vida.

Por ejemplo, uno de los rivales a los que tendrá que hacer frente el Presidente Obama en la primaria demócrata es Vermin Supreme, un ciudadano de Massachusetts que se presenta con el lema "emperador para un nuevo milenio" y que entre sus promesas electorales incluye una orden ejecutiva que obligue a todos los ciudadanos a cepillarse los dientes.

Bachmann en The Situation Room (CNN)

Romney en Manchester, New Hampshire

Union Leader entrevista a Perry

Ver entrevista completa (C-SPAN).

Nashua Telegraph entrevista a Ron Paul

"Backflip"

Web ad de Jon Huntsman que repasa los cambios de postura de Romney y lo compara con un mono de juguete que da volteretas hacia atrás.

Jon2012girls

Las hijas de Jon Huntsman tratan de ayudar a su padre con esta parodia del video de Mark Block.

Sustituyen el humo del tabaco por pompas de jabón.

Herman Cain en McClellan, Alabama

Herman Cain ha iniciado hoy una gira de dos días por Alabama, pequeño estado sureño que no votará hasta marzo.

En su primera parada ha prometido que, si es Presidente, para empezar, firmará una orden ejecutiva para recortar un 10% del presupuesto de todas las agencias federales, y después las personas que coloque al frente de dichas agencias deberán encontrar otro 10% de ahorro.

A los escépticos les ha dicho que está en esto para ganar.

Ha recuperado su característico sombrero negro.

Perry se inscribe en New Hampshire

El Gobernador Rick Perry se ha inscrito esta mañana como candidato en la primaria de New Hampshire. Lo ha querido hacer personalmente, como Romney, Gingrich, Huntsman y Santorum.

Después de firmar la declaración de candidatura y entregar un cheque de 1,000 dólares, el candidato ha emprendido una mini-gira de pocas horas por el estado que tendrá tres paradas: una recepción en Concord, una entrevista con el consejo editorial del Union Leader, y una cena en Manchester.

Huntsman en The Situation Room (CNN)

Necesitado de generar titulares para seguir vivo en esta campaña, el Gobernador Huntsman ha descrito a Romney como "una veleta perfectamente lubricada."

La frase es divertida y por eso ahora la estemos comentando, pero el candidato no tiene ni pizca de sentido del humor. No se puede soltar una cosa así con tanta formalidad.

Fotos de campaña: "retail politics"

Unos hombres juegan a las cartas en una humeante cafetería griega de New Hampshire mientras el Senador Estes Kefauver (de pie en el centro) hace campaña, en febrero de 1952.

Team Cain bajará el ritmo para proteger más al candidato

The Daily Beast:

Herman Cain has made one high-profile blunder after another since his unlikely surge to the top of the GOP presidential polls. By the normal rules of political discourse, he should be back to peddling pepperoni any day now.

He has somehow managed to emerge unscathed—but his team is determined to stop the bleeding.

“We’re trying to slow down a little bit, make sure he’s rested, make sure he’s focused,” says J.D. Gordon, the campaign’s vice president for communications. The goal is to achieve a “more deliberate pace… so we don’t make those kinds of mistakes.”

Gordon says his boss has been doing as many as seven or eight events a day, “and when you do that and don’t use a Teleprompter, sometimes you can make a mistake… People understand he’s not a career politician; he’s very spontaneous, they know how fast he’s going. People give him more leeway than they would someone who’s in Congress or a governor.”

Romney y Perry, los favoritos de K Street

The Washington Post:

K Street is playing an increasingly central role in the 2012 presidential race, as hundreds of lobbyists representing some of the world’s largest corporations and trade groups pour money into Republican coffers.

The main beneficiary so far is Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor and equity-fund executive, who is banking on strong support from the business community to propel his White House bid.

More than 100 registered lobbyists have contributed to Romney, giving nearly $200,000 in direct donations, according to a Washington Post analysis of donor and lobbying records. A team of lobbyist fundraisers has also bundled together nearly $1 million in contributions for Romney’s campaign, disclosure records show.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who entered the race in August, took in at least $72,000 in contributions from 42 lobbyists through September, plus $77,000 bundled by a bank executive. Dozens of Washington lobbyists have also given money to trailing candidates Jon Huntsman Jr., Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, the analysis shows.

(...) The lobbyists who have donated to GOP candidates so far represent a broad swath of corporate interests, including technology firms lobbying for a tax holiday on overseas profits and oil companies hoping to preserve lucrative tax breaks on energy.

On Wednesday morning, for example, Romney attended a breakfast fundraiser at the American Trucking Association sponsored by more than a dozen K Street heavy-hitters. Hosts included longtime GOP fundraiser Wayne Berman, who represents the American Petroleum Institute and many others; GOP lobbyist Mark Isakowitz, whose lengthy client list includes banks, oil companies and technology firms; and Alex Mistri of the Glover Park Group, which briefly represented Solyndra, the solar-energy firm that went bankrupt after getting a $530 million government loan guarantee.

Perry, whose financial base lies in the oil fields of Texas, also has worked to make inroads into Washington’s lobbying community, recruiting donors to help bundle together contributions and seeking advice from K Street professionals. Last week, Perry held a series of private policy meetings with about 45 lobbyists, trade group executives and conservative leaders at the National Association of Wholesaler Distributors, whose president and government relations chief are key Perry fundraisers.

(...) Cultivating donors on K Street has been central to Romney’s fundraising efforts, aimed in part at cementing his reputation as the candidate of establishment Republicans. One key fundraiser this year was a “Lawyers for Romney” luncheon at Patton Boggs, Washington’s largest lobbying firm with $40 million in billings last year. Hosts including former senator Trent Lott (R-Miss.) raised $5,000 or more, with individual donations starting at $1,000, according to an invitation.

Romney’s top lobbyist fundraiser is Patrick J. Durkin, managing director of Barclays Capital, who raised $355,000 through September, disclosures show.

Cain recauda más de 3 millones en lo que va de octubre

CNN:

Herman Cain's chief-of-staff, Mark Block, said on CNN Thursday night the campaign has raised more than $3 million since the beginning of October and reported 65,000 donors.

"We've actually doubled in a little over a month, and that's what we're seeing in our grassroots activism growth," Block said on CNN's "Out Front with Erin Burnett."

The figure represents a huge surge in the campaign's fundraising, and totals more than money raised in the previous three previous months combined.

Herman Cain en Springdale, Arkansas

Habló ante 1,500 invitados que pagaron 50 dólares cada uno para verle.

El dinero recaudado irá para el Partido Republicano de Arkansas.

Romney en Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

En una recaudación de fondos en el Consol Energy Center.

Herman Cain en Corpus Christi, Texas

En una reunión de mujeres republicanas.

"What's Next?"

El ascenso de Herman Cain ha dejado a Rick Santorum sin electorado.

Y el ex Senador de Pennsylvania intenta reaccionar con este web ad que busca generar desconfianza hacia Cain entre los conservadores sociales.

¿Podría Romney dar la batalla en Maine?

Critical Insights:

(hacer click para ver más grande)


Maine ha sido un estado poco receptivo a candidatos conservadores modernos, pero es un estado republicano clásico en la medida en que esto es posible en Nueva Inglaterra. Por ejemplo, es uno de los dos únicos estados que jamás votó por FDR. Tiene Gobernador republicano (conservador) y sus dos Senadoras en Washington son republicanas (liberales). En unas condiciones adecuadas, podría estar abierto a considerar a un republicano de Massachusetts.

Romney sería el primer candidato republicano del Noreste en 64 años (desde 1948), y de Nueva Inglaterra en 88 años (desde 1924). La creciente falta de competitividad de los republicanos en esa región ha ido acompañada del desplazamiento del centro de gravedad del partido hacia el Sur y el Oeste. Quién sabe si la presentación de un candidato de Nueva Inglaterra, después de tanto tiempo, pudiera abrir alguna oportunidad inesperada para el GOP.

Fotos de campaña: ajustando los cables

El Gobernador Ronald Reagan se dispone a dar un mitin en una granja de Liberty, Missouri, cuando dos técnicos le colocan un micrófono para grabar sus palabras y utilizarlas después en un anuncio de radio y tv, en la campaña de 1980.

A simple vista parece que le estén dando cuerda al candidato.

Bachmann concentra todos sus recursos en Iowa

The Daily Caller:

Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann now has 10 full-time campaign staffers in place in Iowa, where the Minnesota congresswoman appears to be counting on a strong finish to propel her back into the top GOP tier.

“We have a strong, experienced organization in place that is equipped to build upon Michele Bachmann’s historic victory in the Republican Party of Iowa Straw Poll this summer,” national campaign manager Keith Nahigian said.

The Bachmann campaign also announced Thursday that Hawkeye State political veteran Eric Woolson will serve as Iowa campaign manager. He managed former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s victorious Iowa campaign in 2008.

Más town hall meetings y menos debates

First Read:

*** Perry to skip debates after Nov. 9? The fall debate season hasn’t been kind to Rick Perry, and his campaign is now suggesting he will limit his participation in future debates after the CNBC debate in Michigan on Nov. 9.

“We’re about 60 days away from votes being cast,” Perry Communications Director, Ray Sullivan said on CNN, per Bloomberg. “The candidates need to spend time in Iowa doing those town halls and spending a lot more time with the voters, who oftentimes have the best questions and press the candidates the hardest.” Sullivan went on to say, “We’re taking each of these as they come, examining the schedule and examining the opportunities and the opportunity costs.”

And Perry spokesman Mark Miner told Politico: "We said we would do Michigan but the primaries are around the corner and you have to use your time accordingly." If you've followed Perry's career closely and if you've read the "Eggheads" about the Perry way of doing this on the campaign trail, this shouldn't come as a surprise. Perry's folks believe in the retail campaign strategy; it's a Perry strength, one he's yet to be able to showcase which is why they want off the debate trail.

Publicidad viral y televisión

The Daily Beast:

In the two hours after Herman Cain’s “Smoking Man” video was released to the public, it was watched more than 100,000 times. Two days later, it had tallied nearly 700,000 views on the campaign’s YouTube channel alone—a total that doesn’t count multiple airings on cable-TV news for free. It also spurred a sharp spike in the Cain campaign's online fundraising.

“We knew that it would be popular, but we didn’t know it would do this,” Michael Johnson, the Cain campaign’s director of new media, told me. “It was shot in the span of several minutes in front of a casino while the campaign was in Vegas for the debate … There wasn’t any script written—it was just Mark [Block, the campaign’s chief of staff] talking about what he thought needed to happen to fire up our troops.” Mission accomplished.

This might finally be the election cycle when viral video gets some respect while breaking the chokehold that broadcast-TV advertising buys have on campaign budgets. The roughly 45 percent of total campaign funds that end up being spent on TV ads is no longer commensurate to their actual power or reach. Instead, it’s starting to look like a racket, reflecting a political-consultant playbook first fashioned in the 1980s that’s resistant to change.

Make no mistake—we’re talking big bucks. The 2012 presidential-election cycle is expected to easily exceed $6 billion when all is said and done. The 2010 congressional midterms alone produced $3.6 billion in expenditures, outpacing the entire 2000 presidential campaign. And while the average percentage of the total “advertising buy” that media consultants take home has decreased from 20 percent to 10 percent, it is still major money for first making, and then placing, the ads on TV stations.

The catch is that viral videos only reach the most active voters—the folks who are plugged in and following politics, rather than general-election persuadables and undecideds. But that approach is entirely consistent with trends like micro-targeting and the play-to-the-base philosophy propagated by Karl Rove and his inheritors. And there is already evidence of viral videos’ success in shifting presidential-primary momentum.

(...) “Internet videos are a critical component of any modern political campaign, and a good one early on can help introduce a candidate, raise money, raise awareness, and set the tone,” says Ken Kurson, a partner and executive vice president at Jamestown Associates, a national media firm based in Princeton, N.J. “Unconstrained by the shackles of ‘27 seconds plus disclaimer,’ there’s opportunity to be much more creative and substantive.”

But there is still the pervasive sense that online video is merely a means to an end, a way to feed the TV beast. “The 2008 Obama campaign was the Internet campaign,” says Kenneth M. Goldstein of Campaign Media Analysis Group, a Kantar Media company. “You know what they did on the Internet? Raised a lot of money. You know what they did with all that money? Spent it on TV.”

But can’t candidates get a bigger bang for the buck doing more targeted cable and online viral videos rather than broadcast-advertising buys?

“In primaries, yes,” acknowledges Goldstein. “But that depends on the primary and expectations about turnout … There’s probably less direct-mail fundraising than there was 10 years ago. But the fact of the matter is, there’s more money in politics in general.”

That ever-growing pie is one of the dynamics that allow many contemporary media consultants to justify keeping the same ratio of TV-to-Internet expenditures in place.

“TV is both the most overrated and most effective media buy—especially for general elections,” says Brent Seaborn of TargetPoint Consulting. “What makes a video go viral is still a mystery—there is no established formula—but it can be very effective in targeted outreach, the kind you want in primaries. I would say that earned media, particularly TV exposure, is the most undervalued component of a campaign … And to the extent that [news media] will notice a viral video, it is as, or more, valuable than the number of organic impressions.”

The rules of the game are shifting because convergence is finally occurring. “It matters less and less every year what screen you watch ads on,” attests Republican consultant Rick Wilson of Intrepid Media. “I’m just as likely to watch CNN on an iPad as a TV screen.”

Cain en Hannity (Fox News)

Herman Cain, caso único

Nate Silver:

Herman Cain, the Georgia businessman who has never held elected office, is tied for the lead in national polls of Republican voters — or perhaps even slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, as he was in Tuesday night’s New York Times/CBS News poll. Mr. Cain has also led in most recent polls of the Iowa caucuses and the South Carolina primary, has taken the lead in Ohio, and is close to Mr. Romney in Florida. If all you had to go on was the polls, you might think that Mr. Cain was the favorite to win the Republican nomination.

But then there are the nonpolling factors, some of which can be objectively measured and some of which cannot, but which would generally point toward Mr. Cain as being a second- or third-tier candidate. Mr. Cain has no endorsements from Republican members of Congress or Republican governors, and very few from officials in key early voting states. He has raised very little money. He has not hired well-known names for his campaign staff. He does not have traditional credentials. He has run for elected office just once before. He has begun to get a fair amount of media coverage, but the tenor of it has been fairly skeptical. His campaign commercials have been … interesting.

Has there ever been a candidate with such strong polling but such weak fundamentals? Almost certainly not, at least not at this relatively advanced stage of the race.

(...) By this stage in the race, the polling and the fundamentals usually match up pretty well. Where there are exceptions, and there haven’t been many, they are usually candidates who have strong fundamentals but weak polling, rather than (as in Mr. Cain’s case) the other way around. Prominent examples of this would include Lamar Alexander in both 1996 and 2000, Phil Gramm in 1996, and perhaps someone like Chris Dodd in 2008.

Where would Mr. Cain fit into this chart? He’d be a huge outlier. If you knew only about Mr. Cain’s polling and were trying to predict how strong his fundamentals were based on the precedents established by past candidates, your initial guess would be off by about 4.5 standard deviations, which amounts to a 1-in-300,000 outlier.



The fact that Mr. Cain has made it this far with such apparently weak fundamentals — we’re less than 10 weeks away from the Iowa caucuses — is itself remarkable. It implies that there is either something fundamentally unusual about this year’s Republican nomination process, or perhaps that some sort of “new normal” has been established and that the old rules of how you win a nomination no longer carry as much weight.

(...) There is simply no precedent for a candidate like Mr. Cain, one with such strong polling but such weak fundamentals. We do have some basic sense that both categories are important. This evidence is probably persuasive enough to say that Mr. Cain’s chances are much less than implied by his polling alone. They may, in fact, be fairly slim.

But slim (say, positing Mr. Cain’s odds at 50-to-1 against) is much different than none (infinity-to-1 against). We don’t know enough about the way these factors interact, and we can’t be sure enough that the way they’ve interacted in the past will continue on into the future, to say that Mr. Cain has no chance or effectively no chance.

Frankly, I think it is quite arrogant to say that the man leading in the polls two months before Iowa has no chance, especially given that there is a long history in politics and other fields of experts being overconfident when they make predictions.

Santorum en Greenville, Carolina del Sur

En una house party.

La esperada encuesta del Register saldrá el sábado

Des Moines Register:

Results of a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the race for the Republican presidential nomination will be released this weekend.

Highlights of the poll will be released at 7 p.m. Saturday at DesMoinesRegister.com. In-depth analysis of the results will be published in the Des Moines Sunday Register.

This is the second Iowa Poll of the 2012 caucus cycle. In the first poll of likely Republican caucusgoers, published in late June, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney edged U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota to lead the field. Since then, former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota has left the race, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry has joined it.

The Iowa Poll is a Register exclusive since 1943. Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducts the Iowa Poll for the Register.

Fox News: Cain, front-runner nacional

Fox News:

Herman Cain takes the lead in the Republican presidential nomination contest as GOP voters continue to deny Mitt Romney clear front-runner status.

A Fox News poll released Wednesday shows support for Cain has quadrupled among GOP primary voters since late August. At that time, he stood at 6 percent. After three September debates, he jumped to 17 percent. And now Cain leads the pack at 24 percent.

While it’s the first time Romney has trailed Cain, it’s the second time he’s been ousted from the lead since July. Romney receives 20 percent -- a new low for him. That’s down from 23 percent last month and a high of 26 percent in early August.

Newt Gingrich now comes in third with 12 percent -- edging out Rick Perry. The former speaker -- like Cain -- has seen his support quadruple since late August.

Perry’s support has dropped to 10 percent, down from 19 percent in September. After his mid-August announcement, Perry captured 29 percent of the vote and took the front-runner role from Romney.

At 9 percent, Ron Paul stays in the top five.

Cain is particularly popular among Republican primary voters who identify as being a part of the Tea Party: he captures 32 percent to Romney’s 8 percent among this group. Cain also has a wide 15 percentage-point advantage over both Romney and Gingrich among white evangelicals.

Huntsman en Top Line (ABC)

Ron Paul en Special Report (Fox News)

Perry en Your World (Fox News)

Romney con Bob McDonnell en Fairfax, Virginia

En este video podéis ver en acción al más que posible ticket republicano.

CNN/Time: Romney, el rival a batir en todos los estados

Sondeo de CNN/Time:

In Iowa, which will hold its caucuses on January 3 and is traditionally the first state to vote in the race for the nomination, 24% of registered Republicans say they are backing Romney, who's making his second bid for the presidency, with Cain, the former Godfather's Pizza CEO and radio talk show host, at 21%. Romney's three point margin is within the survey's sampling error.

According to the Iowa poll, 12% support Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who is making his third run for the White House, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry each at 10%, Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota at 6%, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at 2%, and former Utah Gov. and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman at 1%.

According to the New Hampshire poll, conducted among registered Republicans and among registered independents who voted in the 2008 GOP primary, 40% say if the primary were held today, they would cast ballots for Romney, with Cain at 13%, Paul at 12%, Huntsman at 6%, followed by Gingrich at 5%, Perry at 4%, Bachmann at 2% and Santorum at 1%.

(...) It's a dead heat in South Carolina, which will hold its primary on Jan. 21 and traditionally is the first southern state to vote along the road to the White House. According to the poll in the Palmetto State, Romney has the support of 25% of self-identified Republicans or independents who lean towards the GOP, with Cain at 23%. Romney's two-point margin is well within the survey's sampling error.

Paul follows at 12%, with Perry at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, Bachmann at 4% and Huntsman and Santorum each registering at 1%. South Carolina has no party registration and all registered voters may participate in January's GOP primary, but self-identified Democrats rarely vote in the Republican contest.

Florida will hold its primary on January 31, voting fourth in the primary and caucus calendar. According to the poll, three out of ten Republicans say they back Romney, with Cain at 18%. Gingrich and Perry each grab 9% support, with Paul at 6%, Bachmann at 4%, and Huntsman and Santorum at 1%.

Advertencia: este sondeo es de votantes registrados, no de votantes probables. Otros sondeos que hemos visto, por ejemplo en Iowa, han sido de "likely caucus goers"; este es de "registered republicans".

Herman Cain en La Marque, Texas

Cerca de 4,000 personas en un acto organizado ayer por el Tea Party.

Fotos de campaña: backstage

Interior de la carpa que protege al Presidente cuando entra y sale de la limusina en el backstage de un mitin electoral. La foto está tomada durante una parada del Presidente Bush en Traverse City, Michigan, en verano de 2004.

Romney aclara su posición sobre la ley antisindical de Ohio

El Gobernador Romney ha estado esta mañana en Virginia, apoyando a los candidatos republicanos en las elecciones a la Legislatura. Le ha acompañado el Gobernador Bob McDonnell. No se ha hablado de endorsements.

El candidato ha aprovechado una rueda de prensa para cortar la polémica creada por su ambigüedad de ayer en Ohio.

"Apoyo la pregunta dos (del referéndum) y el esfuerzo del Gobernador Kasich para restringir la negociación colectiva en Ohio."

El regreso de los fondos no regulados

Slate.com:

Soft money is coming back to national politics, and in a big way. And we can blame it all on a single sentence in Justice Anthony Kennedy’s opinion in 2010’s controversial Citizens United decision—a sentence that was unnecessary to resolve the case.

In this election cycle, “superPACs” will likely replace political parties as a conduit for large, often secret contributions, allowing an end run around the $2,500 individual contribution limit and the bar on corporate and labor contributions to federal candidates.

(...) The court’s declaration that independent spending does not corrupt has spawned the Super-PAC and the unraveling of campaign finance law. The unraveling went like this.

First, if independent spending cannot corrupt, then an individual’s contributions to an independent group cannot corrupt. (Gone was the $5,000 contribution limit to political action committees—or PACs—which only spend independently to support or oppose federal candidates.)

Second, if an individual’s contributions to one of these “Super-PACs” cannot corrupt, then neither can a corporation’s or a labor union’s. (Corporations now have a way to influence elections anonymously, thus avoiding the risk of alienating customers.)

Third, if an individual has a constitutional right both to contribute to a candidate and to spend independently, then a PAC should be able to do the same thing simply by having two bank accounts. (Every PAC is now a Super-PAC.)

All of this has spawned a shadow campaign in which each presidential candidate has his or her own supportive Super-PACs, and contributors can curry favor with the candidates by giving unlimited sums to the Super-PACs. Even worse, thanks to holes in our disclosure laws, it is possible to use other organizations as money launderers to keep Super-PAC contributions’ ultimate sources secret from the public. And Super-PACs like American Crossroads may have found a way to make ads with the candidates themselves without losing their label as “independent” spenders.

Malabarista Romney

Hace unos meses, el Gobernador John Kasich y la Legislatura republicana aprobaron en Ohio una ley para limitar los derechos de negociación colectiva de empleados públicos. Dentro de un par de semanas habrá un referéndum para revocar la ley y los sindicatos están ganando la batalla de la opinión pública concentrando el debate en la defensa de ciertos colectivos populares (policías, bomberos) en lugar de en el gasto público.

En ese contexto llegó ayer el Gobernador Romney a Ohio para ayudar al GOP local a movilizar al electorado de cara al referéndum, pero después se negó a tomar una postura pública en el asunto. Entró en contradicción. Dijo que apoya los esfuerzos del Gobernador pero que no se posiciona en el referéndum.

El hecho, algo así como intentar hacer un malabarismo con 10 pelotas a la vez sin perder el equilibrio ni dejar que caigan al suelo, ha resucitado la polémica de sus cambios de postura en temas fundamentales y amenaza con alterar el relato de su campaña en los medios.

First Read:

*** Say anything? What hurt Hillary Clinton after that Oct. 30, 2007 debate wasn't her exact answer on drivers’ licenses for illegal immigrants. Rather, it was that the entire exchange (and the days after) reinforced a negative narrative about Hillary -- namely that she was willing to say or do anything to get elected as president.

Similarly, Mitt Romney's rough day yesterday didn't have as much to do with his actual position (or non-position) on Ohio's anti-collective-bargaining law as it raised doubts about his conservative bona fides. To recap: On the day of a debate (moderated by one of us), on the day of a brand-new poll, and two weeks before the election, Romney walked in a call center for the Ohio GOP on Issue 2, and he refused to take a position on it, even though he's endorsed it before. It was an unforced error.

Mejora la recaudación de Gingrich

NBC News:

"As of today, [we] raised more money in October than we raised in the entire last quarter. And we have more donors as of 2 days ago than we've had all the last quarter," Gingrich said.

Campaign spokesman R.C. Hammond confirmed to NBC News that Gingrich "surpassed the $800,000 mark today." According to the campaign, they have received 11,200 donations this month at an average of $75. Three out of four donors are first-time contributors.

Obama en The Tonight Show (NBC)

"Creating Jobs"

El primer anuncio de tv de Rick Perry en Iowa tiene un tono positivo y se centra en la creación de empleos.

Se emitirá entre los días 25 y 31 de octubre en las áreas de Cedar Rapids, Des Moines y Sioux City. Va incluido en una compra de 175,000 dólares.

GOBERNADOR PERRY: "Como Presidente, crearé al menos 2.5 millones de nuevos empleos. Y sé algo de eso. En Texas creamos más de 1 millón de nuevos empleos, mientras el resto de la nación perdía más de 2 millones.

Empezaré abriendo los campos americanos de gas y petróleo. Eliminaré las regulaciones del Presidente Obama que perjudican a otros fuentes de energía doméstica como el carbón y el gas natural. Esto creará nuevos empleos y reducirá nuestra dependencia del petróleo de países que odian a América."

Perry en The O'Reilly Factor (Fox News)

Huntsman en Special Report (Fox News)

Gingrich se inscribe en NH y firma el compromiso anti-impuestos

El Speaker Newt Gingrich también ha querido realizar en primera persona los trámites para inscribirse en la primaria de New Hampshire.



Después ha firmado el famoso compromiso anti-impuestos del estado y ha posado con el simbólico hacha gigante.

Políticamente incorrecto. Rebelde. Anti-establishment.

Carter Eskew, que lideró el equipo creativo de Al Gore en las elecciones de 2000, comenta en el Washington Post el desconcertante web ad de Cain y Block. Le ha gustado.

Ed and I both woke up this morning thinking about Herman Cain’s new ad. Ed thinks it’s insane; I have a different take.

Yes, the ad, which is probably intended as a way of jump-starting a non-existent organization, features a likely first: a campaign manager operating on no sleep and too many caffeine counter-stimulants endorsing his own candidate. Is campaign manager Mark Block, featured in the ad, someone of significance in conservative circles? Someone who can dog-whistle Republican activists? Maybe Ed knows.

And the smoking is very interesting; it seems perfect for the Cain anti-establishment message. What could be more rebellious than smoking? (Scenes of smoking haven’t been allowed in product ads for years.) And, finally, there is Cain himself at the end, enjoying it all, with a style of grin not fit for description on a family blog. Cain is all about letting his freak flag fly, and this ad waves it high.

Una escena icónica

PPP: empate en Nevada

Public Policy Polling:

Another good week for Cain.

Herman Cain is getting pretty close to being something more than the flavor of the month. PPP's newest polls find him with a double digit lead in Wisconsin, and running only a point behind Mitt Romney in Nevada. This now makes 4 weeks in a row where Cain's been on the top of our polls- in 9 surveys we've conducted over that period of time he's held the lead in 8 with this Nevada poll serving as the only exception.

In Wisconsin Cain's at 30% to 18% for Romney, 12% each for Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, 8% for Ron Paul, 5% for Michele Bachmann, 2% for Rick Santorum, and 1% each for Jon Huntsman and Gary Johnson.

In Nevada Romney's at 29% to 28% for Cain, 15% for Gingrich, 7% for Paul, 6% for Perry, 3% for Bachmann, 2% for Santorum and Huntsman, and 0% for Johnson.



Cain's numbers continue to represent a huge amount of momentum. He's gained 21 points from late July in Nevada, when he was at 7%. And he's gained 23 points from mid-August in Wisconsin where he was also at 7%. It's the Tea Party that continues to drive Cain's support. He's up 37-19 on Romney with those voters in Nevada with Gingrich in second at 20%. And in Wisconsin he gets 37% with them as well with Gingrich at 17%, Perry at 12%, and Romney all the way back in a tie for 4th with Ron Paul at 8%.

Las buenas noticias para Romney: la falta de una estructura de campaña de Cain en Nevada, y que el Tea Party no ha puesto todavía sus ojos en un candidato concreto.

Las malas noticias para Romney: en Team Romney ven a Cain como una amenaza menor. Pero si Cain es la alternativa que surge de Iowa y Carolina del Sur, el Tea Party se pondrá a su disposición, y eso compensará su falta de organización. Los insiders que dicen que su radar no está registrando ningún avance logístico de Cain, se olvidan de que el Tea Party ya tiene una organización montada fuera del partido, y que es la que impuso a Sharron Angle en Nevada sin el apoyo de ningún insider.

Perry presenta su plan de impuestos y gasto público

El Gobernador Rick Perry ha presentado su plan de reforma fiscal y de gasto público en una fábrica de plásticos a las afueras de Greenville, Carolina del Sur.

La propuesta estrella consiste en otorgar al contribuyente la posibilidad de elegir entre optar a un impuesto fijo sobre la renta del 20% o conservar su actual tasa impositiva.

El plan incluye algunos regalitos populares para la clase media, como el mantener las actuales exenciones fiscales para familias con ingresos inferiores a 500,000 dólares al año, y la eliminación de los impuestos a los beneficios de la Seguridad Social.

Para ilustrar la simplicidad de su plan, su campaña ha facilitado un impreso de declaración del tamaño de una tarjeta postal.

También propone bajar el impuesto de sociedades al 20%, eliminar el impuesto a los dividendos tasados como aumento de capital en vez de como ingresos ordinarios, y a las ganancias de capital a largo plazo.

En cuanto a políticas de gasto público, propone una enmienda de presupuesto equilibrado, prohibir la asignación de fondos federales destinados a proyectos especiales de los legisladores, y recortar el gasto federal en un 18% del PIB con la idea de equilibrar el presupuesto antes de 2020.