PPP: empate en Nevada

Public Policy Polling:

Another good week for Cain.

Herman Cain is getting pretty close to being something more than the flavor of the month. PPP's newest polls find him with a double digit lead in Wisconsin, and running only a point behind Mitt Romney in Nevada. This now makes 4 weeks in a row where Cain's been on the top of our polls- in 9 surveys we've conducted over that period of time he's held the lead in 8 with this Nevada poll serving as the only exception.

In Wisconsin Cain's at 30% to 18% for Romney, 12% each for Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, 8% for Ron Paul, 5% for Michele Bachmann, 2% for Rick Santorum, and 1% each for Jon Huntsman and Gary Johnson.

In Nevada Romney's at 29% to 28% for Cain, 15% for Gingrich, 7% for Paul, 6% for Perry, 3% for Bachmann, 2% for Santorum and Huntsman, and 0% for Johnson.



Cain's numbers continue to represent a huge amount of momentum. He's gained 21 points from late July in Nevada, when he was at 7%. And he's gained 23 points from mid-August in Wisconsin where he was also at 7%. It's the Tea Party that continues to drive Cain's support. He's up 37-19 on Romney with those voters in Nevada with Gingrich in second at 20%. And in Wisconsin he gets 37% with them as well with Gingrich at 17%, Perry at 12%, and Romney all the way back in a tie for 4th with Ron Paul at 8%.

Las buenas noticias para Romney: la falta de una estructura de campaña de Cain en Nevada, y que el Tea Party no ha puesto todavía sus ojos en un candidato concreto.

Las malas noticias para Romney: en Team Romney ven a Cain como una amenaza menor. Pero si Cain es la alternativa que surge de Iowa y Carolina del Sur, el Tea Party se pondrá a su disposición, y eso compensará su falta de organización. Los insiders que dicen que su radar no está registrando ningún avance logístico de Cain, se olvidan de que el Tea Party ya tiene una organización montada fuera del partido, y que es la que impuso a Sharron Angle en Nevada sin el apoyo de ningún insider.