jueves, 17 de mayo de 2012

Ojo a la primaria demócrata de Arkansas (22 de mayo)



Un abogado al que no conoce ni su madre podría darle un susto a Obama en Arkansas. No tendría ningún efecto práctico de cara a la nominación demócrata, pero sí un enorme valor simbólico.
A week ago, federal inmate and Democratic Presidential candidate Keith Judd pulled 42% of the West Virginia primary vote against incumbent Barack Obama.

The President’s 57% tally in a state that will be non-competitive in the fall was a signal of disillusionment among conservative Democratic voters who dominate West Virginia’s party politics.

Obama is likely to experience a similar wave of discontent from Fourth District Democratic voters in Arkansas.

In our latest Talk Business-Hendrix College Poll, conducted last Thursday, May 10, 2012, 38% of Democratic primary voters in the Fourth say they’re casting ballots for John Wolfe, a Tennessee attorney who filed paperwork to qualify for the Arkansas Democratic primary.

Less than half — just 45% — say they presently support Obama.

45% – Barack Obama
38% – John Wolfe
17% – Undecided

The poll was taken just one day after President Obama made public his support of gay marriage; however, Obama has never performed extraordinarily well among voters in rural Arkansas.
En Power Line señalan que el voto contrario a Obama en las primarias de su propio partido está siendo inusualmente alto en comparación con otros Presidentes que buscaron la renominación sin ningún adversario de peso (véase Bush, George W. o Clinton, Bill). A pesar de ello, los medios de comunicación tradicionales, que ya sabemos cómo se las gastan, no están cubriendo el asunto.

In Oklahoma, a motley crew of opponents got 43% of the primary vote against the president’s 57%. In Massachusetts, Obama got 89% of the vote, but someone else got 11%; the numbers were the same in Tennessee. In Alabama, Obama could muster only 80% of the Democratic vote. In Louisiana, it was 76-24, in Rhode Island, 83-17. Obama won North Carolina 79-21.
West Virginia was the most stunning result so far: Obama eked out a 59-41 win over a felon who is incarcerated in Texas. Among Democratic voters.

Next up, on Tuesday, is Arkansas. A poll taken last week showed Obama narrowly leading another flake candidate named John Wolfe by a mere seven points, 45-38. Obama could very well lose Tuesday’s primary; with a little help from Republicans, he will lose.

What is remarkable about this is that Obama has no real opponent. He is running weakly among his own Democrats against unknowns, cranks and felons. By rights, this should be a huge story. In 1968, Lyndon Johnson was driven from the White House when Eugene McCarthy garnered 42% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary–coincidentally, the same showing that the incarcerated felon made against Obama in West Virginia, and that a group of nobodies made in Oklahoma. So far, America’s reporters and editors have studiously averted their eyes from what is happening in the Democratic primaries. They have refused to cover the rebellion in the Democratic ranks, and will continue to do so unless and until Obama actually loses a primary. If that happens, they will have no choice but to report the fact.