Nadie quiere ser el primero

The New York Times repasa esta mañana el estado de la carrera por la nominación presidencial republicana.

Los nombres más conocidos (Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich) prefieren entrar tarde en la competición porque no necesitan de una gran inversión para darse a conocer, y los Gobernadores en funciones (Daniels y Barbour) tienen que esperar a que cierre la sesión legislativa en sus estados, en primavera en el mejor de los casos. Esto deja a otros poco conocidos y con pocos compromisos (sobre todo Pawlenty que deja de ser Gobernador en enero y lo tiene claro, y en menor medida Thune que es Senador y parece menos decidido) ante la oportunidad de aprovechar mejor los primeros meses de 2011.

Lots of Republican Toes in the 2012 Waters, but No Rush to Dive In

(...) Tim Pawlenty, the departing governor of Minnesota, is gearing up for a book tour in January and highlighting his opposition to the new federal health care law.

Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi is trying to persuade donors to remain neutral until he decides whether to make a bid for the White House.

And Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, is quietly courting top-shelf contributors and trying to keep his old team together.

But for all the maneuvering, not one of the possible 2012 Republican presidential contenders is planning to make a formal announcement before early next year or even later. Seeking to avoid the scrutiny and expenses that come with opening a full-fledged campaign, the potential candidates, including Sarah Palin and former Gov. George E. Pataki of New York, are instead quietly testing campaign messages, wooing local activists and trying to assess the shifting political climate.

(...) Senator John Thune of South Dakota is making inquiries to top Republican operatives and has amassed a $7.2 million Senate campaign account that he could use in a presidential run. Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, introduced himself to a new generation of Republicans by holding candidate training sessions in early-voting states. And former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas is returning to Iowa, where he won the caucuses in 2008, to headline a major gathering of conservative Christians.

(...) The roster of potential Republican contenders also includes Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Representative Mike Pence of Indiana, and Rick Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania. All have made at least some movements — from baby steps to significant efforts — toward a presidential bid.

At this time four years ago, the Republican candidates to succeed President George W. Bush were already well along in filling out their campaign staffs. Senator John McCain announced his team and opened an exploratory committee in early December, a benchmark that seems unlikely for any candidate this year.

Strategists with several potential candidates said that all of the campaigns wanted to avoid becoming ensnared in the bidding war for top talent that took place in 2006 and ultimately drove up salaries and expenditures long before the real contours of the nominating contest were known. The political terrain is made more uncertain by the new Republican majority in the House and a field of contenders that could have several late entrants like Ms. Palin, whose fund-raising capacity is potentially strong enough that she could wait until relatively late in the process to decide whether to run.

(...) Mr. Romney is seen by Republicans as being closest to running, even though his advisers said he had not completely decided. Mr. Pawlenty is also seen as almost certainly running, particularly because he has surrounded himself with some of the earliest operatives from Mr. Bush’s 2000 campaign.

Mr. Huckabee and Ms. Palin, both of whom appeal to social conservatives, must weigh whether to risk their contracts at the Fox News Channel and other ventures to run for president. Mr. Gingrich also must decide whether it is worth setting aside his lucrative speaking career.

Advisers to Mr. Barbour and Mr. Daniels said they were unlikely to decide until the end of their legislative sessions next spring. Associates of Mr. Daniels said he had been hashing out the family toll that a presidential run takes. His wife, Cheri Daniels, has not always embraced the traditional first lady role in Indiana and is said to have reservations. (...)