La enrevesada estrategia de Huntsman

Slate:

First, he's got to persuade all of New Hampshire's independents to vote for him. How's that going?

(...) "We've got a divide and conquer strategy," Huntsman says. "There are always going to be political extremes. Ten, fifteen percent on the right. Ten, fifteen percent on the other side."

It's a simple theory. I will now try to make it more complicated:

1. There are many serious Republican candidates vying for the conservative vote.
2. New Hampshire has semiopen primaries, which means independents can register with a new party on primary day and choose a Republican or Democratic candidate.
3. There is no Democratic primary this year, because there is no challenge to President Obama.
3a. What do reporters like almost as much as primary challengers? Speak-truth-to-power insurgent centrists!
4. These insurgent centrists, with no Democratic primary to vote in, could cross over and help give Huntsman a surprise victory in New Hampshire.
5. Huntsman surges, wins the nomination, and reluctantly-but-firmly takes the presidency from the nice guy who made him an ambassador.

There are holes in the theory. In 1996, the last time there was a GOP primary and no race on the Democratic side, the result was not a victory for moderation. It was a surprise win for Pat Buchanan. The founding myth of the Huntsman campaign is that he can repeat John McCain's strategy of winning independents, but McCain actually did very well with conservative Republicans. Also, even if he pulls off the New Hampshire upset, how does he survive in the other 49 states?

Good questions! In the meantime, Huntsman is going to meet every persuadable voter he can and charm them senseless. He's a fantastic retail politician. He avoids the Mitt Romney mistake of guessing demographic data about voters; he asks questions. He has a few lines that no one but a Tea Partier could disagree with.

(...) The people who like Huntsman the most tell me that they're Democrats or independents, or occasionally, tourists —this is the end of the summer, when working stiffs from Massachusetts and Connecticut to visit the lake. The tourists can't vote for him; the Democrats have to change their registrations weeks in advance of the primary, and are iffy about the prospect. Is a vote for Jon Huntsman worth a lifetime of mail from John Sununu?