Daniels firmará ley anti-aborto

El Gobernador Mitch Daniels firmará la ley HEA1210 que prohibirá los abortos a partir del principio de la viabilidad (tercer trimestre) y eliminará la financiación pública de Planned Parenthood, la poderosa organización dedicada a prestar ese tipo de servicios conocidos como "planificación familiar".

Indiana se convertirá así en el primer estado de la Unión que corta el grifo a la Planned Parenthood. Un triunfo para el movimiento pro-vida y para los contribuyentes, y un indicio de que Daniels puede estar realmente interesado en la Presidencia. La jugada llega justo a tiempo para reconciliarlo con los conservadores sociales después de la polémica generada con su propuesta de tregua en asuntos sociales.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said today he will sign a controversial bill that cuts off government funding to Planned Parenthood, the nation's largest abortion provider.

(...) "I supported this bill from the outset, and the recent addition of language guarding against the spending of tax dollars to support abortions creates no reason to alter my position," said Daniels, a Republican. (...)

Huckabee inclinado a presentarse

Según Byron York:

(...) These days, among the people who have known and worked with Huckabee, there is a growing sense that he's leaning toward another run for the White House. What follows is based on conversations with a number of people close to Huckabee, but not with Huckabee himself.

(...) Huckabee's experience during a 29-stop tour last March to promote his book, "A Simple Government," made a big impression on him. In six stops in Iowa and five in South Carolina, as well as stops in Florida and elsewhere, he met large and receptive crowds -- the living, breathing embodiment of his high poll numbers.

During the tour, Huckabee started talking more frequently with friends and political associates. If he ran, what would a campaign look like? What would it cost? How would it work?

Huckabee knows a 2012 campaign wouldn't be the same as '08. Back then, he came out of nowhere, with no money, but with a small, devoted following among social conservatives. He won the Iowa caucuses with a tiny fraction of the resources Romney poured into the race.

This time around, Huckabee would undoubtedly have more donors and more support. But campaign finances are perhaps not as big a concern as personal finances. Huckabee has never had much money -- the governor of Arkansas was the lowest-paid in the nation during many of the 11 years he served -- and his '08 campaign was hampered by his need to make a living. Even as he stumped in Iowa and elsewhere, he had to take time off each month to make paid speeches. That's how he supported himself.

Now Huckabee, with his Fox program and other projects, is well paid for the first time in his life. But if he becomes a candidate, he'll have to leave Fox, as Gingrich and Rick Santorum have already done. (...)

Matthew Barzum será el finance chairman de Obama-2012

Lo cuenta el Boston Globe:

Matthew Barzun, a former Lincoln resident who is now US ambassador to Sweden, will give up his diplomatic post to work for President Obama's re-election by overseeing what some have projected could be the country's first $1 billion White House campaign, The Boston Globe has learned.

Barzun, a 40-year-old Harvard College graduate, will serve as national finance chairman for Obama for America, the president's Chicago-based campaign committee. He is replacing Penny Pritzker, the Chicago billionaire who helped raise nearly $750 million for Obama's 2008 campaign. (...)

Donald Trump en Las Vegas, Nevada

Habló ante un grupo de mujeres republicanas.



Continúa: Parte II / Parte III

Llega la hora de la verdad para Daniels

Mañana termina el curso legislativo en Indiana. Es la fecha límite que el Gobernador Mitch Daniels se autoimpuso para tomar una decisión sobre su futuro. La excusa tras la que se ha escondido todo el año.

Preguntado al respecto en las últimas horas por el Indianapolis Star, ha comentado que no habrá ningún anuncio a corto plazo (este fin de semana) porque todavía no hay decisión definitiva. Según él, ahora empieza la reflexión.

Gov. Mitch Daniels said this morning he has not yet decided whether to seek the Republican nomination for president, and won't announce a decision this weekend.

Daniels has said that he would announce his decision after the legislature concluded its session tomorrow. But Daniels told The Indianapolis Star that "it absolutely won't be (announced this weekend) because you can't announce a decision you haven't made."

He said he will now take some time to reflect on his decision, and while he won't keep people waiting long, he won't rush it.

But, he added, "the time to work on it is here."

He's been encouraged by many to run, he said, "and I feel some responsibility not to just keep them dangling."

RNC estaría explorando las implicaciones de una posible candidatura de Paul Ryan

Según Huffington Post:

Reince Priebus has begun exploring whether a presidential bid by House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) would have any impact on Priebus' ability to remain at the helm of the Republican National Committee, according to sources with intimate knowledge of the discussions.

Multiple sources who work for Ryan and speak with him on a regular basis said that the Budget Committee chairman has no intention of running for president in 2012. If there is any consideration at all within the Ryan camp about a 2012 run -- and that clearly remains a big if -- they are not ready to start talking about it.

"Paul is focused on representing his employers in Congress and serving as the Budget Committee chairman. His priorities are being the best husband and father he can be and doing his job to the best of his ability," said Susan Jacobson, finance director of Ryan for Congress. "He is not interested in running for president."

But Priebus' deliberations are the first real indication that those who are close to Ryan and who control levers of power in the GOP are taking the idea of a Ryan candidacy seriously.

Priebus and Ryan are both from Wisconsin, have known one another for years and talk regularly. They're slated to jointly headline a fundraiser Friday in Milwaukee along with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) and Sen. Ron Johnson (R). In addition, the RNC chairman’s comments at a breakfast Tuesday seemed to hint at the possibility of a Ryan candidacy. (...)

Trump: "Hoy estoy muy orgulloso de mí mismo"

Donald Trump está realizando una rápida visita de siete horas al área de Portsmouth, al sur de New Hampshire, donde tiene previsto visitar una fábrica, presidir una recaudación de fondos para el GOP estatal, y mantener un encuentro con votantes en una famosa marisquería.

Su llegada ha generado una expectación insólita. Nada más aterrizar en el Pease International Tradeport, ha montado una concurridísima rueda de prensa en la que se ha apuntado como una victoria propia la decisión de la Casa Blanca de publicar el certificado de nacimiento del Presidente.

Parte I



Parte II

Nacido en Honolulu a las 7:24 pm del 4 de agosto, 1961

(hacer click para ver más grande)

Obama hará público su certificado de nacimiento

Fox News:

The White House has released President Obama's long-form birth certificate, saying the document is "proof positive" the president was born in Hawaii.

White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer said the administration decided to release the full document in response to mounting questions about the president's birth. He noted that what started as Internet chatter had moved into the national political debate and ended up being discussed regularly on mainstream news outlets.

He said the president believed the matter was becoming a "distraction" from major issues.

Obama plans to discuss the release of the document Wednesday morning at the White House.

The document lists Obama's birthplace as Honolulu, Hawaii, and his birth date as Aug. 4, 1961. The hospital listed is Kapiolani Maternity & Gynecological Hospital. The name on the birth certificate is Barack Hussein Obama II. (...)

Petraeus descartado como candidato

La cadena ABC adelanta que el General David Petraeus será el nuevo Director de la CIA. Obama neutraliza así a un posible rival e integra a un republicano de enorme prestigio en su equipo de política exterior.

* Aprovechando que el Pisuerga pasa por Valladolid, enlazo las biografías en español que escribí hace dos años de casi todos los hombres que han dirigido la CIA desde Allen Dulles. Sirven para aproximarse a la historia de la política exterior de las distintas administraciones en el último meido siglo.

- Allen Dulles (1953-1961)
- John McCone (1961-1965)
- William Raborn (1965-1966)
- Richard Helms (1966-1973)
- James Schlesinger (febrero-julio 1973)
- William Colby (1973-1976)
- George Bush (1976-1977)
- Stansfield Turner (1977-1981)
- William Casey (1981-1987)
- William Webster (1987-1991)
- Robert Gates (1991-1993)
- James Woolsey (1993-1995)
- John Deutch (1995-1996)
- George Tenet (1996-2004)
- Robert Gates (2004-2006)

Ron Paul anuncia una campaña más potente que la última

Lo dijo en la presentación oficial de su comité exploratorio.

"Creo que hay literalmente varios millones de personas más preocupadas sobre las cosas de las que hablé hace cuatro años. Están preocupados por la economía, les preocupa que las condiciones se están deteriorando, y las cosas de las que hablé son ahora las más importantes. Es el gasto excesivo, el sistema de ayudas sociales, la política exterior, así como el sistema monetario. Y el número de gente que se ha vuelto consciente de esto está creciendo tremendamente, y se manifiestan por todo el país. Así que la expectativa es que ésta sea una campaña más significativa (que la de hace cuatro años)."

Obama pierde el respaldo de la industria de los fondos de inversión

Vía Wall Street Journal:

Hedge-fund managers made a big bet on Barack Obama and other Democrats in 2008. Now, with the 2012 contest gearing up, some prominent fund managers have turned their backs on the party and are actively supporting Republicans.

Daniel Loeb, founder of Third Point LLC, was one of the biggest Obama fund-raisers in 2008, rounding up $200,000 for him, according to campaign-finance records. In the decade prior, Mr. Loeb and his wife donated $250,000 to Democrats and less than $10,000 to Republicans.

But since Mr. Obama's inauguration, Mr. Loeb has given $468,000 to Republican candidates and the GOP, and just $8,000 to Democrats. Hedge-fund kings have feelings, too, and the president appears to have hurt them.

"I am sure, if we are really nice and stay quiet, everything will be alright and the president will become more centrist and that all his tough talk is just words," Mr. Loeb wrote in an email about four months ago expressing frustration with the president's posture toward Wall Street. "I mean, he really loves us and when he beats us, he doesn't mean it." The email, sent to eight friends, was widely circulated on Wall Street.

Mr. Loeb is part of a shift in political allegiance within the world of hedge funds that also includes such big names as Steven Cohen's SAC Capital Advisors and Kenneth Griffin's Citadel Investment Group. Managers and employees of hedge funds directed a majority of their contributions to the GOP in the 2009-2010 election season, a pattern not seen since 1996, when the industry was much smaller.

Continúa (...)

Evolución de las donaciones por empresa:

(hacer click para ver el gráfico en grande)

Daniels tendría un temor opresivo a ser candidato

Vía CNN:

One Republican official says it seems Daniels wants to be president, he just doesn't want to run for president.

Ron Paul convoca a la prensa en Des Moines, Iowa

Oficializará la creación de un comité exploratorio, según The Hill:

Texas Rep. Ron Paul (R) will announce he is forming a presidential exploratory committee on Tuesday in Iowa, the congressman said Monday.

The two-time presidential candidate is scheduled to make his announcement during a press conference in the state capital of Des Moines at 4:45 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. During the press conference, Paul will also name members of his campaign's Iowa leadership team, according to a source close to the congressman.

Romney en On The Record

Pawlenty en On The Record

Entre 60% y 70% de probabilidad de que Daniels se presente

John Harwood, corresponsal de la CNBC en Washington DC, escribe en su twitter:

#mitchdaniels confidant: Indiana Gov. now "60 to 70%" likely to seek 2012 GOP nomination

Ron Paul en The View

Barbour está fuera

Barbour no se presenta. Algunos lo esperaban después de que Nick Ayers firmara con Pawlenty, pero no deja de sorprender visto el alto nivel de actividad que ha mantenido fuera de Mississippi en los últimos dos meses.

Tres posibles teorías para explicar esta extraña decisión:

1) Apoyará a Pawlenty. Punto.

2) Ha estado contratando y organizando personal en nombre de una posible candidatura de Mitch Daniels para que el Gobernador de Indiana no tuviera que hacer nada en esta primera fase.

3) Huckabee le ha confesado que se presenta, y Barbour ha comprendido que con el ex Gobernador de Arkansas en competición no hay espacio para otro candidato sureño.

Declaración de la oficina del Gobernador Barbour:

"I will not be a candidate for president next year. This has been a difficult, personal decision, and I am very grateful to my family for their total support of my going forward, had that been what I decided.

"Hundreds of people have encouraged me to run and offered both to give and raise money for a presidential campaign. Many volunteers have organized events in support of my pursuing the race. Some have dedicated virtually full time to setting up preliminary organizations in critical, early states and to helping plan what has been several months of intensive activity.

"I greatly appreciate each and every one of them and all their outstanding efforts. If I have disappointed any of them in this decision, I sincerely regret it.

"A candidate for president today is embracing a ten-year commitment to an all-consuming effort, to the virtual exclusion of all else. His (or her) supporters expect and deserve no less than absolute fire in the belly from their candidate. I cannot offer that with certainty, and total certainty is required.

"This decision means I will continue my job as Governor of Mississippi, my role in the Republican Governors Association and my efforts to elect a new Republican president in 2012, as the stakes for the nation require that effort to be successful."

Trump explica por qué no acostumbra a votar

DONALD TRUMP en Fox & Friends: "En cuanto a la elección general, mi historial es muy bueno. Quiero decir que, hablando en general, me gusta votar. Os diré que soy un creyente de las votaciones. Pero cuando no se presenta un candidato republicano o cuando el republicano está previsto que reciba el 6.2% del voto, es en cierto modo bastante duro viajar 1,000 millas para votar."

¿Candidato Paul Ryan?

Según Ace of Spades todavía es posible:

(...) I’ve been wondering about this because I’d written off Ryan (“My kids are too small and my ego’s not big enough”) and yet there continue to be these mentions of him as a prospect by the conservative media.

I asked Bill Kristol about this at Breitbart’s book signing — I keep hearing Weekly Standard people, particularly, hint that Ryan is entertaining the idea of a run.

Joking around, he said, “Oh, we all just say that to each other [at the Weekly Standard]” — meaning, “We’re all psyching ourselves up with that and/or attempting to put out that rumor out there.”

Funny.

But I asked another journalist type (I won’t say who since I didn’t tell him I’d be quoting, it was a personal type question) and he said, “Well, he rules it out in his public statements but in his private statements…?” Not so much.

I asked, to be sure, if he was saying “Who knows what he says in private?” or if he was saying “I’ve heard what he says in private, and he’s not as firm on it as he is in public declarations.” He confirmed it was the latter.

I think the situation he’d be willing to consider it is if there’s no unifying, consensus figure in the primaries. (...)

Cuatro categorías

Charles Krauthammer clasifica a los posibles aspirantes presidenciales en cuatro categorías: candidatos serios, candidatos con escasas posibilidades, candidatos que probablemente no se presenten, y candidatos para 2016.

(...) Long shots

Michele Bachmann: Tea Party favorite. Appeals to Palinites. Could do well in Iowa. Hard to see how she makes her way through the rest of the primary thicket. A strong showing in debates and a respectable finish would increase her national stature for 2016. But for now: 20-1 to win the nomination.

Donald Trump: He’s not a candidate, he’s a spectacle. He’s also not a conservative. With a wink and a smile, Muhammad Ali showed that self-promoting obnoxiousness could be charming. Trump shows that it can be merely vulgar. A provocateur and a clown, the Republicans’ Al Sharpton. The Lions have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl.

The major candidates

Mitt Romney: Serious guy. Already vetted. Tons of private- and public-sector executive experience. If not for one thing, he’d be the prohibitive front-runner. Unfortunately, the one thing is a big thing: Massachusetts’s Romneycare. For an election in which the main issue is excessive government (see Axiom One), that’s a huge liability. Every sentient Republican has been trying to figure out how to explain it away. I’ve heard no reports of any success. Romney is Secretariat at Belmont, but ridden by Minnesota Fats. He goes out at 5-1.

Newt Gingrich: Smart guy. A fountain of ideas. No, a Vesuvius of ideas. Some brilliance, lots of lava. Architect of a historic Republican victory in 1994. Rocky speakership. Unfortunate personal baggage. 12-1.

Haley Barbour: Successful governor. Experienced Washington hand. Abundant charm. Baggage: Years of lobbying, unforced errors on civil rights, early neo-isolationist deviations. Rarely without a comeback, however. 7-1.

Tim Pawlenty: Formerly, unassuming, unprepossessing, solid two-term Minnesota governor. Currently, mouse that roars. Up-tempo style, middle-of-the-road conservative content. Apparently baggageless. Could be the last man standing. 5-1.

Mitch Daniels: Highly successful governor. Budget guru. Delightful dullness satisfies all axioms (see above). Foreign policy unknown, assuming he has one. Alienated some conservatives with his call for a truce on — i.e., deferring — social issues. If he runs, 6-1.

Likely not running

Mike Huckabee: Has a good life — hosting a popular TV show, making money, building his dream house in Florida. He’d be crazy to run. Doesn’t look crazy to me.

Sarah Palin: Same deal. Showed her power in 2010 as kingmaker and opinion shaper. Must know (I think) she has little chance at the nomination and none in the general election. Why risk it, and the inevitable diminishment defeat would bring?

Even less likely to run — the 2016 bench

A remarkable class of young up-and-comers includes Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley. All impressive, all new to the national stage, all with bright futures. 2012, however, is too early — except possibly for Ryan, who last week became de facto leader of the Republican Party. For months, he will be going head-to-head with President Obama on the budget, which is a surrogate for the central issue of 2012: the proper role of government. If Ryan acquits himself well, by summer’s end he could emerge as a formidable anti-Obama.

One problem: Ryan has zero inclination to run. Wants to continue what he’s doing right now. Would have to be drafted. That would require persuasion. Can anyone rustle up a posse? (...)

Santorum en Fox News Sunday

Trump desplaza a Palin en presencia mediática

Lo cuenta Nate Silver:

(...) During the month of November 2010, Ms. Palin’s name retrieved 777 hits, according to this technique. That represented just over half of the 1,533 citations for all 23 candidates combined.

So far this month, however, Ms. Palin has accounted for just 124 hits out of 1,090 total, or roughly 11 percent. Instead, her place has been taken by Mr. Trump, who has accounted for about 40 percent of the coverage.

The decline in media coverage for Ms. Palin tracks with a decline in her polling numbers. Whereas she was pulling between 15 and 20 percent of the Republican primary vote in polls conducted several months ago, she’s down to about 10 percent in most surveys now.

Mr. Trump, meanwhile, whose media coverage has increased exponentially, has surged in the polls, and is essentially in a three-way tie for the lead with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee over an average of recent surveys. (...)

Rollins cree que Huckabee se presentará

Ed Rollins, que fue el director nacional de su campaña en 2008, dice:

(...) Rollins told The Daily Beast's John Avlon that if Huckabee makes a decision sometime in the next few weeks, "we'll have plenty of time to put together a serious campaign team that can be very competitive."

"He's receiving quite a bit of counsel and encouragement," Rollins said. "He knows he has roughly a June 1 deadline to decide. Personally, it's my sense that he'll go for it this time." (...)

Huntsman ya tiene pollster

Mientras Daniels sigue compartiendo sus deliberaciones con todo periodista que quiera escucharle, sin hacer absolutamente nada para construir una campaña nacional, Huntsman no dice nada pero da pasos efectivos. Lo último ha sido contratar un pollster:

(...) Horizon PAC, the presidential campaign-in-waiting for former Utah governor Jon Huntsman, has hired Whit Ayres as its pollster.

“I think the Republican nominating contest is more wide open than at any time in my lifetime,” Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, said in a email to the Fix. He praised Huntsman, who is currently serving as the U.S. Ambassador to China, as a “fresh face and a new conservative voice”.

Ayres has also pledged to poll for Huntsman if and when he decides to run for president, he said. Ayres has done polling for the likes of Sens. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Bob Corker (Tenn.) and Lindsey Graham (S.C.). (...)

Gary Johnson anuncia candidatura en Concord, NH

Es el primero en anunciar candidatura oficial, saltándose la fase exploratoria.

Su página web: http://www.garyjohnson2012.com/

"Me presento a Presidente."

(...) "Estoy cualificado y tengo la capacidad y los conocimientos necesarios para el puesto. También tengo un buen historial."

(...) "Estados Unidos necesita un 'Presidente veto' ahora mismo, alguien que diga que 'no' a los gastos insanos y que pare la locura en la que se ha convertido Washington."

(...) "Tengo que hacerlo, y quiero hacerlo, muy bien en New Hampshire. Así que pasaré mucho tiempo en New Hampshire, donde con una buena actuación puedes pasar de la oscuridad a la prominencia de la noche a la mañana." (...)

Palin en Hannity

Roy Moore se une a la lista de candidatos

Fue Presidente del Tribunal Supremo de Alabama y alcanzó fama nacional por negarse a retirar un monumento a los Diez Mandamientos de la sede del tribunal después de que un juez dictara que la presencia del monumento iba en contra de la disposición constitucional que separa Iglesia y Estado.

Ayer entregó a la Comisión Electoral Federal (FEC) los documentos necesarios para formar un comité exploratorio:

(...) Republican Roy Moore, who believes he was wrongly removed from Alabama’s supreme court, will file federal paperwork today to create a presidential exploratory committee, he said in an interview this morning.

And the Iowa co-chairman for Arkansas’s Mike Huckabee 2008 Iowa campaign is shepherding him around the state on a volunteer basis.

Moore, 64, said the country needs a constitutional scholar in the White House.

“Our rights and liberties in this country hang by a very thin thread because justices and judges who are appointed, Republican and Democrats, so often don’t adhere to the constitution. They adhere to their own whims and predilections and feelings.”

(...) Moore will make 25 appearances this week on a 6 1/2-day tour of Iowa, home of the nation’s earliest caucuses, according to MoorePAC, a Gallant, Ala.-based political action committee.

(...) Danny Carroll, a former state legislator who is a full-time lobbyist for the Family Leader, a socially conservative advocacy group, is Moore’s lead Iowa contact.

“He’s my guy,” said Carroll, who worked for Huckabee’s campaign in the 2008 cycle. (...)

5 razones para no descartar a Palin

Las da Jay Newton-Small en Time:

1. She just launched a new website yesterday that could significantly boost her grassroots outreach and fundraising. On the site, supporters can ask Palin to appear at events, donate money to her political action committee and follow her latest musings on Facebook and Twitter. No, this isn’t a website for corporations looking to hire a speaker for $100,000 a pop — the kind of speech Palin’s been giving for the last two years. “I guess people could request almost anything but this is more for grassroots political events,” says Tim Crawford, SarahPAC’s treasurer. “Any corporate engagements we’d pass immediately on to the Washington Speaker’s Bureau,” which books Palin’s paid speeches. This is Palin’s first serious foray into online fundraising that harnesses her social network popularity. It will be interesting when her PAC reports its fundraising numbers in July how much dough the new site brings in. Sure, she’s still giving paid speeches and commenting on Fox News (unlike Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum). But this website is the clearest indication yet that she’s turning away from money making to focus on politics.

2. Palin has said repeatedly that she’d only get into the race if there was no other viable candidate. “I would consider it if there is no one else running who represents the common sense principles our country needs to secure our children and grandchildren’s futures,” she told me last November. Now, let’s look at the brouhaha stirred up by Donald Trump; can we seriously say the base isn’t hankering for a candidate with a little more flair? Unlike her more cautious potential rivals – ahem, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty — she didn’t just praise Paul Ryan for his budget — she actually endorsed the plan itself. As with her midterm endorsements in 2010, she’s making a bold play for the Tea Party vote. Of course, she may have some serious competition from Michele Bachmann, but Palin still has the potential to be queen of the Tea Party.

Continúa (...)

Huntsman competirá en Carolina del Sur

Según la CNN:

(...) “If he gets in the race, from everything I’ve heard, his plan would be to plant a flag in South Carolina,” said longtime Columbia-based strategist Richard Quinn, who helped John McCain win the state’s primary in 2008. “I really think we can win here.”

Quinn is working for Horizon PAC, Huntsman’s campaign-in-waiting, and will steer his presidential bid in South Carolina should the ambassador officially enter the race after his China post concludes on April 30.

He said New Hampshire and South Carolina – two of the four early states that allow independents to participate in their presidential primaries – “are ready for the arrival of a major new player.”

“I think moving from New Hampshire to South Carolina, that’s the traditional path,” Quinn said, mapping out Huntsman’s potential path to the nomination. “No disrespect to Iowa, but New Hampshire and South Carolina are two parts of a three part rocket, along with Florida.”

(...) Already, Huntsman is securing endorsements in the Palmetto State.

State. Sen. John Courson, who has correctly picked the winner of the South Carolina Republican primary in every contest since he supported Ronald Reagan in 1980, announced Monday that he plans to back Huntsman. (...)

* Entrada relacionada: Quinn no irá con Romney en Carolina del Sur

Pawlenty en rally del Tea Party de Des Moines, Iowa

Palin frente al Capitolio de Madison, Wisconsin

Pawlenty en rally de Americans for Prosperity en NH

Santorum en rally de Americans for Prosperity en NH

Cain en rally de Americans for Prosperity en NH

Roemer en rally de Americans for prosperity en NH

Nuevas fichajes de Huntsman

En Carolina del Sur:

(...) Jon Huntsman's potential presidential campaign has landed longtime South Carolina political operative Chris Allen, who will work for Huntsman if the ambassador to China runs for president. Allen, who was John McCain's South Carolina political director and is a former aide to former South Carolina governor Mark Sanford, would be working from the national office, though he would also be involved in the effort in the Palmetto State. "Jon Huntsman is the type of candidate who will appeal to a broad spectrum of voters in South Carolina and across the country," Allen said in a statement provided to The Fix. Veteran South Carolina strategist Richard Quinn has also joined Horizon PAC. (...)

En New Hampshire:

(...) The Utah-based political action committee that's expected to become the presidential campaign committee for outgoing Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman has set up a New Hampshire-specific committee with a former Bush (41) administration official as its chairman.

Huntsman supporter Peter Spaulding, a former Executive Councilor and prominent former John McCain backer, filed Horizon PAC-New Hampshire with the New Hampshire Secretary of State's office on Thursday.

Spaulding told the Primary Status that while he will be the PAC treasurer temporarily, the chairman is Wally Stickney of Salem.

Stickney headed the Federal Emergency Management Agency during the administration of President George H.W. Bush and was New Hampshire Commissioner of Transportation when John H. Sununu was governor in the early and mid-1980s. He has been under the proverbial radar politically for the past several years.

We've also learned that signing on as a supporter of a prospective Huntsman candidacy is Paul Chevalier, a former VFW state commander who headed Veterans for McCain during the 2008 New Hampshire campaign. Chevalier will be not be involved with the Horizon PAC because he is involved in the VFW-PAC, but if Huntsman runs, Chevalier will be on his team in some prominent capacity. (...)

Ron Paul crea una "cuenta exploratoria"

Según The Hill:

(...) Libertarian Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) has taken a step toward running for president in 2012, forming a fundraising account that allows him to test the waters for donor support.

Paul's political aide Jesse Benton confirmed Thursday that a so-called "testing the waters" account has been created for the potential candidate. The organization is not a full exploratory committee, but money from the account could be transferred into a campaign war chest should Paul officially choose to enter the fray. (...)

NH Journal entrevista a Barbour

El Gobernador de Mississippi está realizando una gira de dos días por diferentes ciudades de New Hampshire. La gira incluye una recepción en una residencia privada de Bow, un desayuno-coloquio en un restaurante francés de Manchester, un encuentro con votantes en una tienda de armas de Hooksett, y una reunión con un grupo organizado de mujeres republicanas del estado.

Ayer concedió una entrevista a Amelia Chasse, del NH Journal, en la que reitera su intención de competir por la victoria en la primaria de New Hampshire, en caso de que decida presentarse a las elecciones.

Primer objetivo: 2 millones de dólares en tres cenas

El Presidente Obama viaja hoy a Chicago para presidir tres eventos de recaudación de fondos que supondrán el pistoletazo de salida de un esfuerzo que pretende culminar con la difícil recaudación de 1,000 millones de dólares para la campaña de 2012.

La agenda de hoy consiste, por un lado, en un acto en el Navy Pier, con unos 2,000 asistentes, la mayoría jóvenes, que pagarán un mínimo de 100 dólares cada uno, y por otro lado dos cenas, para gente más exclusiva, en los restaurantes N9NE y MK, con una asistencia combinada de 225 comensales/donantes, algunos de los cuales contribuirán con 35,800 dólares por cabeza, el límite establecido por ley.

Entre los contribuyentes famosos estarán B. J. Armstrong y Derrick Rose, de los Chicago Bulls, Rashard Mendenhall, de los Pittsburgh Steelers, y la antigua leyenda de los Chicago Cubs de beisbol Ernie Banks. También asistirá el Alcalde Rahm Emanuel. El objetivo de esta noche es recaudar más de 2 millones de dólares para la Obama Victory Fund, un fondo conjunto del Comité Nacional Demócrata (DNC) y el comité de reelección del Presidente.

Último precedente: el Presidente George W. Bush celebró la primera cena de recaudación para su comité de reelección el 17 de junio de 2003, con una recaudación total de 3,5 millones de dólares. Obama empieza dos meses antes.

Santorum forma comité para "tantear el terreno"

Lo anunció en On The Record (Fox News).

Huntsman no quiere adelantar detalles sobre su futuro

A punto de volver a casa, Jon Huntsman ha concedido una entrevista a la cadena de televisión KSL-TV, filial de la NBC en Salt Lake City. Dice que todavía ni él mismo conoce la respuesta a la pregunta de si será candidato a Presidente.

"Volveremos a los Estados Unidos dentro de dos semanas y evaluaremos dónde nos encontramos en ese momento, miraremos opciones públicas y opciones privadas, y nos reuniremos en familia y discutiremos lo que haremos a partir de ahí."

Video Courtesy of KSL.com

Santorum podría anunciar comité exploratorio esta noche en Fox News

Según el Union Leader:

(...) Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum will discuss the next step he will be taking regarding a potential presidential candidacy on Wednesday night on the Fox News channel.

Santorum, a former Fox News contributor, will make the announcement on the program "On the Record" with Greta Van Sustern.

It's anticipated that Santorum, who announced on Monday that he will participate in a presidential debate in New Hampshire on June 7, will move closer to a candidacy, perhaps with the formation of an exploratory committee. (...)

Pawlenty en Piers Morgan Tonight (CNN)

GOBERNADOR PAWLENTY: "Vas a tener a Mitt Romney que empezará como el favorito, siendo el más conocido y el que más dinero tiene... y en el otro extremo tendrás quizás a Sarah palin, Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump, o no sé, puede que Hulk Hogan también se presente. ¿Quién sabe? Pero creo que entre esas dos partes, hay un papel para una persona seria que haya tratado con este tipo de asuntos. Vivimos en tiempos muy serios y el país enfrenta graves desafíos. Y si vamos a restaurar la promesa de América, vamos a tener que volver a un liderazgo que sea firme, claro y fuerte."

Media docena de reuniones en NY

Según POLITICO, el Gobernador Huckabee llevaría semanas manteniendo reuniones con posibles donantes, lo que, como mínimo, indica que hay un interés real por su parte de evaluar la competitividad de una hipotética campaña, y por lo tanto el deseo de presentarse.

(...) Meanwhile, Huckabee has been holding a string of about a half-dozen meetings with donors or bundlers in New York. primarily from the finance industry, over the past 6 weeks, three sources told POLITICO.

It's the first indication that Huckabee has been making any sort of move toward one of the factors he said would go into a decision about a second-chance presidential campaign in 2012 — raising enough funds to be competitive in the primary. (...)

Los próximos pasos de Romney

Roll Call detalla lo que le espera al Gobernador Romney en los próximos días: recaudaciones de fondos, reuniones de estrategia, y visitas a estados ricos en donantes.

(...) Having announced his presidential exploratory committee Monday, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will spend the next six weeks crisscrossing the country, primarily in a drive to raise enough money to separate himself from the other potential 2012 Republican candidates.

Romney is scheduled to hold a fundraiser at New York’s Harbor Club on Tuesday. Wednesday includes a national conference call with key campaign donors and bundlers to discuss strategy and fundraising goals for the exploratory phase of what is expected to be Romney’s second run for president. And he plans to hold a national fundraising call day on May 16 in Las Vegas; a similar event held in Boston in 2007 raised more than $6 million.

Romney’s itinerary is also likely to be heavy on visits to states with significant GOP donor communities — including California, Florida and Texas — with an additional emphasis on appearances in the early primary states.

“Everybody’s hustling for dollars now,” said a source close to the Romney exploratory effort. (...)

Wall Street Journal entrevista a Trump

DONALD TRUMP: "Creo que los republicanos están muy preocupados de que pueda presentarme como independiente. Yo soy muy conservador. El asunto es si me presentaré o no como independiente si no gano (las primarias republicanas), y creo que la respuesta es que probablemente sí... podría ganar como independiente... no lo hago por ninguna otra razón. Me gusta ganar."

Romney forma comité exploratorio

Lo ha anunciado por sorpresa en twitter, y ha lanzado este sencillo video grabado esta misma mañana en el campus de la Universidad de New Hampshire y editado en unas pocas horas. La austeridad de la producción y la puesta en escena parece buscada para contrastar con los efectos visuales del anuncio de Pawlenty y la artificialidad sin contenido del video de Obama.

Romney prefiere pronunciar un mensaje realista, bien razonado y centrado de forma exclusiva en la economía y el empleo, dejando claro de antemano que esta vez no entrará en guerras culturales. Y lo hace con un look casual. Con chaqueta y camisa de cuello abierto, se desprende del traje y la corbata que constituyeron su uniforme de campaña hace cuatro años.

(...) "I'm Mitt Romney. This morning I spoke with a number of students here at the University of New Hampshire. Like young people all over the country, they wonder whether they'll find good jobs when they graduate. Last week in Nevada I walked through a neighborhood with homes vacant or in foreclosure. Unemployment there is over 13%.

Across the nation over 20 million Americans still can’t find a job or have given up looking. How has this happened in the nation that leads the world in innovation and productivity? The answer is that President Obama's policies have failed. He and virtually all the people around him have never worked in the real economy. They just don’t know how jobs are created in the private sector. That's where I spent my entire career.

In 1985 I helped found a company. At first we had 10 employees, today there are hundreds. My work led me to become deeply involved in helping other businesses form innovative startups to large companies going through tough times. Sometimes I was successful and helped create jobs. Other times I wasn’t. I learned how America competes with companies in other countries. Why jobs leave, and how jobs are created here at home.

Later when I served as Governor of Massachusetts, I used the skills I had learned in 25 years in business to streamline state government, balance the budget every year, and restore a 2 billion dollar rainy day fund. From my vantage point in business and in government I've become convinced that America has been put in a dangerous course by Washington politicians and it has become even worse during the last two years. But I’m also convinced that with able leadership America’s best days are still ahead.

That’s why today I am announcing my exploratory committee for the Presidency of the United States. It’s time that we put America back on a course of greatness with a growing economy, good jobs and fiscal discipline to Washington.

I believe in America. I believe in the freedom and opportunity and the principles of our Constitution that have led us to become the greatest nation in the history of the earth and I believe that these principles will confirm America’s future as well. This effort isn’t about a person. It’s about the cause of American freedom and greatness. I'd like to ask you to join with us. Volunteer, donate or just pass this message along to a friend. Thanks so much." (...)

Ayers explica su decisión

En una carta dirigida a Ben Smith (POLITICO.com), Nick Ayers, que se instalará en Minneapolis a partir del 25 de abril, explica por qué ha decidido unirse al equipo del Gobernador Pawlenty:

I accepted the position with peace of mind and a deep confidence in the candidate, his family, and the mission ahead, but it was not an easy decision. I did not believe I would join a presidential campaign this cycle for a few reasons. Jamie and I wanted nothing more than to enjoy a quiet few years back home in Georgia with our friends, family, and church that we have missed so much while in Washington at the RGA. I was confident and hopeful Georgia would be the place where we would be permanently after the 2010 cycle. We have thoroughly enjoyed our time back in our home state since December. Running a presidential campaign would obviously pull us away from that.

Also, opportunities in the private sector were serious and abundant and would have allowed me to achieve a degree of personal financial security that my family has not yet had (at least as much financial security as any of us can have during the Obama presidency).

Last, I have other personal friends in addition to Governor Pawlenty that I respect who are running for president, or seriously considering it. The thought of making a public decision about supporting one of them I presumed would be difficult.

These factors and others had virtually ruled out my engagement into a presidential campaign. It was going to be much easier to sit on the sidelines in Georgia, enjoy the fruits of the private sector, and cheer on all of my friends as they jostled for the Republican nomination for president. That path would have been politically safe, financially sound, and personally very comforting. But it was not the right one.

Over the past six months, I have prayed deeply about my purpose in life and how best to utilize the talents God has given me. I wanted my decision to be wholly about how best to serve Him, not what was most politically or financially expedient for my family and me. As He often does in walks of faith, He has called me to a higher purpose. I believe that our Nation is truly on the wrong path. We need a new direction that is positive and hopeful. Simply said, we need new leadership. I believe that Governor Pawlenty is best positioned to provide that leadership. Therefore, I am pleased today to join Governor and Mrs. Pawlenty in their pursuit of the presidency.

My decision does not mean I think less of Haley Barbour, Jon Huntsman, Mitch Daniels or Newt Gingrich should they decide to run, because I do not. I know them all personally and believe in their intellect, capabilities, and principles.

My decision to join the Pawlenty campaign is in total affirmation of Governor Pawlenty's record as a conservative, two-term governor of a blue state, his character and principles and his vision for this Nation, which is second to no one running for president.

I am confident when Republican caucus-goers and primary voters begin seriously to examine what it is in a candidate that really matters, they will find that Governor Pawlenty is the complete package. Not only does his record in Minnesota match their priorities for the country, and his principles and integrity line up with theirs, but Republicans will also find that he is our best choice to unite the Party, compete in difficult regions of the country, and defeat President Obama. (...)

Trump en Fox & Friends

DONALD TRUMP: "Obviamente he puesto el dedo en la llaga porque están peleando conmigo (los demócratas). No les he oído decir nada sobre el señor Pawlenty o sobre ningún otro. Hablan sólo de Trump. Puedo asegurarte que soy su mayor pesadilla. No soy la persona a la que quieren enfrentarse. Ellos y yo lo sabemos."

Nick Ayers, campaign manager de T-Paw

Gran fichaje. A sus 28 años, Ayers es uno de los estrategas políticos jóvenes más brillantes del país. En los últimos cuatro años ha sido director ejecutivo de la Republican Governors Association (RGA), coordinando una recaudación record y el desembolso de 102 millones de dólares sólo en las midterms del año pasado.

(...) Governor Tim Pawlenty announced today that Nick Ayers, the former Executive Director of the Republican Governors Association, will lead the Pawlenty Presidential Exploratory Committee as campaign manager.

“Mary and I worked alongside Nick at the RGA. He is without question one of the best political talents in America. We are very excited Nick will lead our team. His leadership and record of winning tough races in every part of our country will provide even more momentum to our campaign to get America back on track". (...)

* Leer el perfil que le dedicó el Washington Post el año pasado.

Ron Paul ya está en fase exploratoria

Según The Daily Caller:

(...) Paul has filled out the paperwork for a presidential exploratory committee, a spokesman for Paul’s PAC Campaign for Liberty told The Daily Caller, although he has not official announced his candidacy. PAC spokesman Jesse Benton said they have all the forms prepared so that Paul can “flip the switch” as soon as he decides to run.

“I’d say this is a sign that he’s giving a really strong consideration to [running],” Benton said of the debate. “The money’s been great, the enthusiasm’s been great. … The polling in New Hampshire’s really strong so we’re feeling good.” (...)

La izquierda hace crack

Esta viñeta del dibujante John Cole en el The Times-Tribune de Scranton, Pennsylvania, simboliza la ruptura del Presidente Obama con las bases de la izquierda de su partido y la crisis política que amenaza lo que queda de su primer mandato después del acuerdo presupuestario que ha evitado el cierre del gobierno.

Como contrapartida, Obama ha aceptado reducir en 78,500 millones de dólares su propuesta presupuestaria, ha prometido que la Cámara de Representantes podrá debatir y votar la revocación de la reforma sanitaria, y ha dado luz verde a que se realice una auditoría exhaustiva de las concesiones del Obamacare que someterá el asunto a una exposición pública que no le conviene. Sólo ha podido salvar las subvenciones a los abortistas del Planned Parenthood, una causa elevada donde las haya, pero comprometiéndose a que el Congreso pueda votar su anulación en el futuro.

Cómo podría Bachmann capturar la nominación republicana

Mark McKinnon, el que fuera media adviser de Bush, escribe sobre ello en The Daily Beast:

(...) Though prone to gaffes and non-answer answers, she is a formidable fundraiser, an icon among Tea Party enthusiasts, draws cameras like flies, and her detractors are legion. And it's looking more and more likely she will run for president. Also, it's not a stretch to see how she could very likely win Iowa and we know what happens after that.

No, not Sarah Palin. Get ready for a conservative firebrand from Minnesota who may make memories of Palin pale quickly. We are talking about Rep. Michele Bachmann who, while Palin hesitates, has aggressively jumped into the fray. And while she's not my cup of tea (party), Bachmann would arguably be a stronger GOP candidate for president than Palin in 2012. She works harder, she's smarter, she has more discipline, more focus and, perhaps most important, she has fire in her belly.

Chair of the House Tea Party caucus and an outspoken champion of the movement, Bachmann raised more campaign cash in the 2010 congressional midterm elections than any other candidate. And her $2.2 million haul in the first quarter of 2011, mostly from small donors and before she has officially entered the race, tops former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.

Her “positive intensity” among Republicans and right-leaning independents, as measured by Gallup, is higher than Palin’s, even though her name recognition is far lower. Though political pundits pounce on her every misspeak and mangled factoid, while being far more forgiving of the president’s mispronunciations, and historical inaccuracies, she electrifies crowds and displays unnerving message discipline.

Her upstaging of the GOP’s response to the State of the Union address created consternation within the party, but got at least twice the attention and coverage as did Paul Ryan, who delivered the party’s formal response. Ninety percent of politics is showing up. And Bachmann is showing up in Iowa. And she's creating a lot of excitement among the conservative faithful. And Bachmann would fill the void left by Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), who decided not to run for president in 2012: She is both a fiscal and social conservative, which is what Iowa Republican primary voters like. If Mike Huckabee doesn't run, and Palin doesn't run, that leaves Rick Santorum as Bachmann's only real competition among these core voters. And he lost his last election by 16 points. (...)

Huntsman visitará Carolina del Sur el 7 de mayo

Según Hotline On Call:

(...) The former Utah governor will be the commencement speaker at the University of South Carolina's arts, sciences and honors colleges graduation on May 7. That's just two days after the first GOP debate, which is scheduled for May 5 in Greenville, S.C.

Strategists likely involved in a potential Huntsman candidacy tell Hotline On Call they'll urge him not to participate when he returns, and no decisions can be made until that time. Both the speech and the possible debate will be a quick turnaround for Huntsman - he'll leave China on April 30. (...)

Pawlenty recaudando fondos

Minnesota Public Radio informa de un gran evento de recaudación de fondos en Minneapolis para mediados de mayo:

(...) Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty's exploratory presidential campaign is planning a big fundraiser on May 18.

D'Amico and Sons catering confirmed to MPR News that Pawlenty's campaign has reserved the atrium space of International Market Square for an event that day.

Someone with knowledge of the event told us the evening gathering in Minneapolis is one of several scheduled around the country. It's not clear who is invited to the Minneapolis fundraiser, how much money will be raised or how many people will be there. D'Amico and Sons says the space can accommodate up to 1,200. (...)

El ex Gobernador de Minnesota celebró la semana pasada la primera recaudación de fondos para su comité exploratorio en el Salón de Té Ruso de Nueva York, y mañana celebrará otro al sur de San Francisco, en California:

(...) Tim Pawlenty heads to California this week to raise cash for his exploratory 2012 effort, at an event seeking the primary campaign maximum in a major rain-making state, POLITICO has learned.

The event, with a $2,500-a-head asking price, is a breakfast Friday morning at the Rosewood Sand Hill resort in Menlo Park, according to an invitation.

The hosts include former Rudy Giuliani 2008 donors Danna and Alex Slusky, former George W. Bush ambassador Gregory Slayton, and frequent Democratic donors Lisa and Greg Wendt, the invitation shows. (...)

Trump lo ve fácil

Lo ha dicho en una entrevista a Extra:

"(Obama) puede ser derrotado fácilmente por la persona adecuada... en realidad creo que ganar la nominación será más difícil que derrotar al Presidente."

Último discurso de Huntsman como Embajador

A tres semanas de abandonar el cargo, el Embajador Jon Huntsman aprovechó su intervención ayer en un foro de la Asociación de Estudios Americanos de Shanghai para pedir a las autoridades chinas respeto a los derechos humanos y criticar la detención del activista Ai Weiwei.

Lo cuenta la agencia EFE:

(...) "Mucho después de que me vaya de Pekín, futuros embajadores (estadounidenses) continuarán visitando a ciudadanos americanos como el doctor Feng Xue, que fue encarcelado injustamente por robo de secretos estatales y ahora está cumpliendo una condena de ocho años de cárcel lejos de su familia en los Estados Unidos", comenzó.

Tras el caso del geólogo de origen chino, declarado culpable de vender una base de datos comerciales del sector petrolero chino a una consultora estadounidense, dijo que los futuros embajadores "seguirán hablando en defensa de activistas sociales como Liu Xiaobo (Premio Nobel de la Paz 2010), Chen Guangchen y ahora Ai Weiwei".

"Los Estados Unidos nunca dejarán de apoyar los derechos humanos", llegó a afirmar, "porque creemos en la lucha fundamental por la dignidad humana y la justicia allí donde ocurra", y subrayó que "no lo hacemos porque nos opongamos a China, sino, al contrario, porque valoramos nuestra relación".

"Tanto el presidente Hu (Jintao) como el primer ministro Wen (Jiabao) han reconocido la universalidad de los derechos humanos, de manera que, hablando con franqueza, esperamos ir reduciendo con el tiempo esta brecha crítica (en las relaciones bilaterales) e impulsar hacia delante nuestra relación", concluyó.

En ese sentido, dijo que "sería un error que nosotros no escucháramos sus opiniones (de China) y no intentáramos entender la perspectiva china", pero criticó la costumbre de Pekín de evitar pronunciarse cuando se dan roces bilaterales.

"Cortar el diálogo y reprimir a los medios de comunicación no nos ayuda a entendernos unos a otros", señaló, "encender o apagar la relación como reacción a acontecimientos poco agradables es contradictorio con el objetivo de una relación positiva, cooperativa y en profundidad, que nuestros líderes quieren llevar a cabo".

"Cancelar reuniones como muestra de desagrado no nos animará a sentir un mayor respeto por los puntos de vista del otro, y evitar involucrarse directamente en los temas sensibles sólo minará los intereses respectivos de ambos países", protestó: "no podemos avanzar si, cuando surgen las diferencias, sólo uno se compromete plenamente". (...)

En torno a Obama-2012

Mark Halperin, analista político del Time, da respuesta a algunas interrogantes sobre la campaña de reelección del Presidente.


(...) Why did President Obama announce his re-election campaign in April?

He has no Democratic challenger (so far), and none of the major Republicans jockeying to run against him have officially entered the race. But Obama’s strategists want to open local offices in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada to make contact with swing voters and make mischief with the GOP opposition. And with Obama’s online donations likely to lag behind their 2008 pace (his policies and the realities of White House life have turned off some liberal supporters), the President’s money gatherers need to start banking checks. The mind-boggling target: $1 billion.

Will Obama’s 2012 campaign resemble 2008?

Aides say the President will try to focus on his Oval Office duties until fairly late in 2012 so that by the time he gets going, he’ll be running a sprint, not sprinting a marathon. Another difference: he’s no longer the scrappy outsider; he’s flying Air Force One. And his team will be split for the first time: 2008 campaign manager David Plouffe is ensconced in the White House, while strategist David Axelrod will run the campaign from Chicago. Obama advisers swear this won’t be a problem, but a bifurcated command has upended other campaigns before.

Is Obama the favorite or an underdog?

The favorite. Political bookmakers see Obama as better than even money to win a second term, thanks to his fundraising strength, political experience and skill — and the apparent weakness of the GOP field. But he will struggle to hold such swing states as Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado, opening up the Electoral College bowl. A Republican who can compete in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa will have a real chance to beat him. (...)

¿Avalancha Bachmann?

Chuck Todd en First Read:

(...) The Bachmann avalanche? As far as our poll’s look at the 2012 Republican field, the headline here is the fact that Donald Trump is tied for second in our hypothetical GOP trial heat and he actually leads among Tea Party supporters. This, to us, suggests both the weakness and the fluidity of the GOP field. But don’t let the Trump shiny metal object distract you from what could be a more significant story: Michele Bachmann. In a smaller five-way trial heat (featuring Romney, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Barbour, and Bachmann), Romney leads with 40% of Republican primary voters, followed by Newt at 20%, and T-Paw at 12%. But among those describing themselves as VERY CONSERVATIVE, Bachmann leads that field. If Trump is an asteroid who could turn into a pebble, Bachmann could be a snow ball that could turn into an avalanche. (...)

¿Miedo a Romney?

El Comité Nacional Demócrata (DNC) estaría presionando sin éxito a las autoridades de Massachusetts para que retrasen la primaria del estado al mes de abril. La primaria de Massachusetts está prevista para el 6 de marzo de 2012, sólo una semana después de Carolina del Sur.

Lo cuenta el Boston Globe:

(...) National Democratic leaders are asking state party officials to delay the Massachusetts presidential primary from March 6 until later in the spring, arguing in part that allowing the most Republican states to dominate the early voting would bolster the chances that a more conservative candidate will clinch the GOP nomination.

Democrats believe that the more conservative candidates would be polarizing in the national election and have less of a chance of defeating President Obama than a moderate Republican, such as Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts.

But the reception on Beacon Hill, where the Legislature and the governor would have to approve a delay, has not been positive. Senate President Therese Murray, whose support is critical, is said to be cool to the idea. Secretary of State William F. Galvin, the state’s chief election officer, said he is dead set against moving to an April date.

(...) In recent weeks, Tim Kaine, Democratic National Party chairman, and his staff have made personal appeals to local party officials by pointing to the party rules that would increase the Massachusetts convention delegation by 10 percent if the primary is held in April or even 15 percent if the primary is held as part of a regional cluster after March 20.

Senior Democratic officials have confirmed that one of the arguments that national Democrats are using to encourage later primaries and, most preferably, a regional primary in the Northeast is that this would better enable conservative forces in the GOP race to establish their candidacies. (...)

George Pataki medita si presentarse

Según el New York Post:

(...) Former Gov. George Pataki held a secretive lunch with supporters yesterday, fueling speculation that he might make a 2012 run for president. Pataki and five friends met in a private room at restaurant Solo in Midtown. His rep said, "It was not a fund-raiser. He got together with some friends and supporters . . . They did talk about politics, they talked about the future." As for a presidential run? "He's going to look at the field and look at what he's got going on, and make a decision based on those facts. He certainly hasn't ruled it out." But a source said, "His name is really low on the chatter list." (...)

Cuartel general de T-Paw en el One Financial Plaza

El equipo del Gobernador Tim Pawlenty ha firmado un contrato para adquirir el uso temporal de parte del noveno piso del One Financial Plaza como sede de operaciones de su campaña presidencial. El One Financial Plaza es un rascacielos de 28 plantas situado en el downtown de Minneapolis.

(...) The Tim Pawlenty for President Exploratory Committee has picked a home: In the former downtown Minneapolis offices of the Minneapolis-St. Paul Business Journal.

The committee is leasing about 5,000 square feet, or half of the ninth floor, in One Financial Plaza at 120 S. Sixth St., according to Nils Snyder, a downtown broker at NAI Welsh who represented Pawlenty's committee in the site search.

The Business Journal vacated the space earlier this year.

(...) The committee picked One Financial Plaza downtown largely because it was furnished with chairs and cubicles and the furniture was in good shape, Snyder said. (...)

Confirmada primera visita de Huntsman a NH

Será el 21 de mayo según el Union Leader:

(...) Three weeks after Jon Huntsman officially departs as the U.S. Ambassador to China, the potential Republican presidential candidate will be in New Hampshire.

The Primary Status has learned that Huntsman has been confirmed as the keynote commencement speaker at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester on May 21.

"We are very excited about it," said university spokesman Gregg Mazzola, who noted than then-Sen. Barack Obama was the SNHU commencement speaker in 2007. (...)

El NRSC gana la primera batalla en youtube

La parodia (ver video abajo) que el National Republican Senatorial Committee lanzó como anticipo del esperado anuncio de candidatura de Obama está siendo más popular que el "It Begins With Us" en youtube. Desde que se publicó el pasado viernes, el video del NRSC ha sido reproducido 668,080 veces (en 4 días y medio); el video de Obama ha tenido 183,244 reproducciones desde que se publicó ayer, y el primer día es el día fuerte. También en la escala de "me gusta/no me gusta" sale ganando la parodia.

Sorprende sabiendo lo atentos que son en Team Obama en el cuidado de este tipo de bobadas, capaces de sentar a medio centenar de jovenzuelos desocupados a no hacer otra cosa que reproducir el video para evitar una humillación de este calibre en el medio que mejor dominan.

Los acontecimientos apuntan a Rand Paul

Según Bernie Quigley en The Hill:

(...) The invasion of Libya presents the perfect possible political moment to him. Father Ron railed daily against the invasion of Iraq, but America at first required vengeance. We are not a commonly vengeful people, but will respond, as the bard Toby Keith so poignantly put it at the time, with “a boot in the ass” when we are injured, and that more than anything perhaps represented the heartland feelings about the Iraq war and 9/11. But Ron Paul had what might be called a “higher law” vision and it has now captivated almost 40 percent of younger Republicans.

We feel this time an active dislike but no particular vengeance against Libya about any specific hurt. Ron Paul’s arguments against the Iraq invasion might be listened to more thoughtfully when they come today from son Rand.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) says the 49 percent support of the Tea Party shows Americans are disinterested in it. But President Obama’s approval rating is much lower. And the times are moving toward Rand. Invariably, widespread social movements like the Tea Party move to one champion and representative. She or he has not yet been found. But it will not be any of the so-far-announced Republicans, nor will it be one like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker or Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who primarily serve the Republican traditions. The traditions are eroding. The world is beginning again. It may be Rand Paul. (...)

Un candidato en construcción

David Frum analiza a Mitt Romney. Cree que la proyección de una imagen poco auténtica se debe a la ausencia de momentos de crisis personal en su camino hacia el éxito. Demasiada perfección.

(...) Every time I see Mitt Romney speak, I am struck by three things:

1) How hugely personally impressive he is, in ways big and small. He remembers the names of people in the audience. He knows the policy. He can be very funny. He’s sharp, prepared, ready for any question. Underneath it all, he manifests personal character and decency. An audience member reproached him for running “too gentlemanly” campaigns in Massachusetts, praised Donald Trump for “taking the gloves off” against President Obama and demanded whether he was prepared to do the same. In a way that left the questioner nodding and smiling, Romney restated his preference for a campaign not based on personal attacks.

2) Romney has a tic of inserting caveats into his campaign boilerplate. For example, he blisteringly attacked President Obama for canceling the European missile defense program. Here was something the Russians wanted, and President Obama gave it away without getting anything in return. Yet Romney’s critique contained a clause to this effect, “Even if you wanted to cancel the program anyway…” Again and again, Romney would salt statements that his audience wanted to hear with little mental asterisks noting that maybe what they wanted to hear was not exactly accurate, or wise, or in accordance with his own private opinions. Ironically it is this unwillingness to do the full 100% pander that creates the impression of “inauthenticity.” A less honest man would seem more authentic, at least for the moment.

3) Romney is truly a candidate of upper America. In Las Vegas, he spoke movingly of the impact of unemployment. Yet he opened this fine passage in his talk with an anecdote about traveling out from the home of friends in North Las Vegas to tour other people’s foreclosed homes. He could view and empathize with the misfortune, but unmistakably he spoke of misfortune as something that happened to other people, people he did not know personally. American politics obviously has plenty of room for aristocrats. (See the Roosevelts, the Kennedys, the Bushes.) But typically, when people who start at the top enter politics, they either present themselves as tribunes of the under-privileged (like Teddy Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy), or else (like George W. Bush and to a certain extent Franklin Roosevelt) they tell a story of personal crisis and redemption.

Romney’s story is very impressive in its own way: born to a successful father, he achieved an even greater success of his own. Yet Romney seems to have arrived at his success so smoothly, so gracefully, and so without inner turmoil and pain as to open a huge gap between his experiences and those of virtually everyone else in the United States. If he is to be president, he must find a way to close it. (...)

Como en el 76

A Nate Silver (New York Times) la fila de candidatos republicanos de este año le recuerda a la de los demócratas de 1975-76.

(...) The 1976 Democratic field is the one that reminds me the most of this year’s Republican one.

The circumstances ought not to have been bad for Democrats. Richard Nixon had resigned in the face of impeachment, prompting big gains for the Democrats in the 1974 midterm elections. And there were plenty of brand names bandied about: of the 20 potential candidates whom pollsters inquired about in early 1975, a half-dozen had name recognition of roughly 80 percent or higher.

But all of them seemed flawed in some way, including the nominal frontrunner, George Wallace, who would have been an extremely problematic general-election nominee. Meanwhile, quite a few of the well-known Democrats declined to run. The candidate who eventually emerged was Jimmy Carter, who had only 1 percent of the support in early polls.

If you buy into the analogy with 2012, here are the lessons: First, the absence of a true frontrunner makes it easier for a dark-horse candidate to emerge — and that means not just a lesser-known name like Mitch Daniels, but also somebody whose chances are not being taken seriously at all so far. Second, though, the Republicans are not necessarily doomed in the general election just because their field looks weak right now: Mr. Carter did, after all, win the general election.

Then again, Mr. Carter won by only 2 points against Gerald Ford, an unelected vice president whose approval ratings spent most of their time in the low to mid-40s (and who barely survived a primary challenge). Mr. Carter got the job done, but there is a good case to be made that he underachieved and should have been a clearer winner.



(...)

* Otros años

Enero-Junio 1971



Enero-Junio 1979



Enero-Junio 1983



Enero-Junio 1987



Enero-Junio 1991



Junio-Diciembre 1991



Enero-Junio 1999



Enero-Junio 2003



Enero-Junio 2007