2012: Como en el 76

martes, 5 de abril de 2011

Como en el 76

A Nate Silver (New York Times) la fila de candidatos republicanos de este año le recuerda a la de los demócratas de 1975-76.

(...) The 1976 Democratic field is the one that reminds me the most of this year’s Republican one.

The circumstances ought not to have been bad for Democrats. Richard Nixon had resigned in the face of impeachment, prompting big gains for the Democrats in the 1974 midterm elections. And there were plenty of brand names bandied about: of the 20 potential candidates whom pollsters inquired about in early 1975, a half-dozen had name recognition of roughly 80 percent or higher.

But all of them seemed flawed in some way, including the nominal frontrunner, George Wallace, who would have been an extremely problematic general-election nominee. Meanwhile, quite a few of the well-known Democrats declined to run. The candidate who eventually emerged was Jimmy Carter, who had only 1 percent of the support in early polls.

If you buy into the analogy with 2012, here are the lessons: First, the absence of a true frontrunner makes it easier for a dark-horse candidate to emerge — and that means not just a lesser-known name like Mitch Daniels, but also somebody whose chances are not being taken seriously at all so far. Second, though, the Republicans are not necessarily doomed in the general election just because their field looks weak right now: Mr. Carter did, after all, win the general election.

Then again, Mr. Carter won by only 2 points against Gerald Ford, an unelected vice president whose approval ratings spent most of their time in the low to mid-40s (and who barely survived a primary challenge). Mr. Carter got the job done, but there is a good case to be made that he underachieved and should have been a clearer winner.