viernes, 7 de octubre de 2011

Charlie Cook cree que Perry depende de sí mismo



Cook Report:
Clearly, most Republican voters would much prefer a very, very, very conservative nominee to the more buttoned-down Romney. (Even if he has shed his pinstriped suits and nice ties in favor of sports shirts and khakis, he still looks like he could be a Haggar slacks model.) It’s unclear whether they want, or will end up supporting, Perry—but, obviously, they want a Perry-like conservative. But it comes down to Perry’s capacity to turn the corner, to become a national, as opposed to a Texas or a Deep South, candidate.

Perry has shown a proclivity to step on his own body parts and will undoubtedly do so again. The question is whether he learns from his mistakes. If he does, he will be the GOP nominee and stands a fair chance of beating President Obama, given the horrific economy and the public’s loss of confidence in the president. If he doesn’t and isn’t more careful about what he says and how he says it, Perry will either lose the nomination, or he will win it and then lose a general election that’s there for the taking. Simple as that.

No one knows yet whether the controversy unleashed by The Washington Post report about a racially offensive name painted on a rock on land leased by Perry’s family has damaged his political prospects. Whatever Democrats and liberals think is irrelevant. Outside of New Hampshire and a few other states where independents can vote in Republican primaries, independents’ view of this controversy is also irrelevant in terms of the nomination. For now, what’s important is how conservatives and Republicans react to the story.

Maybe enough ambiguity surrounds when the word “Niggerhead” was painted over and when the rock was turned over that Perry can survive. (Too bad there are no Google Earth photos to settle this.) History teaches that it pays to be cautious before rushing to judgment about whether a controversy kills someone’s chances of capturing a party nomination (see Flowers, Gennifer; or Wright, Rev. Jeremiah). One factor is whether other shoes will drop that establish a pattern in Republican voters’ minds and reinforce doubts about Perry—or whether the story fades, pushed out of the news by Christie’s announcement, stock-market gyrations, Italian court rulings, and the dozens of other stories each day.

The Herman Cain boomlet is a puzzler. By traditional yardsticks of measuring a presidential candidate’s potential success, he falls short. For hard-charging conservatives who have become disillusioned with Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and now Perry, and who have resisted the appeal of Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, Cain may be the new flavor of the month. But without the apparatus, money, or expertise in actually winning a party’s nomination, it’s doubtful that he can go very far. The current flurry won’t keep the titans of business and finance on the sidelines; their skepticism will likely mirror that of the political pros and pundits.

2 comentarios:

Juan dijo...

Lo que tiene que hacer Perry es pasar al ataque. Atacar a Romney con Romneycare y presentarlo como un socialista.

A las críticas de la seguridad social y tal, presentarse como un straight talker, decir que los estados podrían hacerlo mejor pero que no considera en absoluto hacerlo para los que ya son mayores, sino para los JÓVENES, tiene que decir la palabra jóvenes, y si hace falta dar una edad concreta.

A las de la inmigración... pues lo que se lo ocurra.

Responder esas dos cosas rápido, con la mejor respuesta posible (pero currada y con confianza, no con cara de lelo) y luego machacar con Romneycare, llevarlo a todas las preguntas.

"Da igual si es a nivel estatal o federal, al nivel que sea usted está a favor del gobierno controlando la sanidad, de obligar a la gente a comprar seguro, de asfixiar a base de regulaciones al sector. Es una prueba evidente de que no confía en el libre mercado, de que igual que Obama cree en el socialismo para la sanidad, y por extensión para muchos otros temas, aunque lo camufle en un flip flopping constante para intentar confundir al electorado". "Usted y Obama creen en una sanidad de carácter socialista, y su truco de decir que en su caso es a nivel estatal es irrelevante. No confía en el mercado, en los emprendedores".

ETC ETC ETC. Y con confianza.

Ojo que yo no quiero que gane xD pero es incomprensible que no empiece a atacar a lo besita, y me refiero sobre todo en los debates, que en anuncios es muy fácil.

Antxon G. dijo...

Creo que Charlie subestima el potencial de Herman Cain. Se olvida de que para ponerlo todo patas arriba sólo necesitaría ganar en Iowa, como lo hizo Huckabee con menos dinero, teniendo con ese acto una influencia decisiva en todo lo que vendría después.

Iowa es un escenario pequeño, donde un candidato que nos ea un favorito nacional puede ganar. Y si eso ocurre, Perry queda muy perjudicado porque para él es obligado ganar en Iowa.

Charlie Cook se olvida de ese factor.