Escenarios con y sin Christie

First Read:

*** If Christie doesn’t run: So what happens if Chris Christie, as so many in GOP circles assume, decides against running for president? We see essentially three scenarios. The first is that much of the GOP establishment -- after watching Perry struggle over the past few weeks -- begins to coalesce around Romney (just see David Brooks this morning). That doesn’t mean Romney’s a sure bet to stroll through the primaries, but he becomes the obvious man to beat. “You are going to see the flower bloom on Romney” if Christie takes a pass, a GOP strategist unaffiliated with any of the presidential campaigns tells First Read.

A second scenario: The conservative vote coalesces around Perry (or another anti-Romney conservative), which becomes dangerous for Romney. Just look at the new Washington Post/ABC poll, which shows the combined Perry-Cain-Bachmann percentage (39%) beating the combined Romney-Gingrich percentage (32%). (Gingrich seems to be an “establishment” placeholder in many of these polls, despite the TYPE of campaign he’s running, so that’s why we include him with Romney.)

A third scenario if Christie doesn’t run? Perhaps someone else tries to get into the race. But with most likely some 90 days until Iowa, that person’s chances of impacting the GOP contest become less and less as each day goes by.

*** But if he DOES: Yet if Christie decides to take the presidential plunge, here’s what you can expect. One, the rest of the fall will be all about the New Jersey governor -- his record, his position on the issues, even his mini-controversies (that NY-NJ tunnel, the helicopter ride, the Disney World trip during the East Coast blizzard). Two, his performances at the debates in October, November, and December will matter (just ask Perry). And three is an unknown: Does he, in the short run, compete against Perry (and possibly Cain, too) for the title of anti-Romney alternative? Or is he competing with Romney for the establishment vote? It all depends on how some of his less-than-conservative positions get framed in the presidential prism. And this is where things get tricky. While the conservative ELITE might get behind Christie and excuse some of his conservative positions, don’t be surprised if there’s more room for a Perry or Cain to keep/gain traction on the more conservative side of the aisle. So then it becomes a true three-way race going into the early contests.