Por qué Romney puede ganar el martes, y por qué puede perder

First Read:

*** Splintered Tea Party support (and why Romney could win this thing): A second storyline is that the divided conservative vote in Iowa creates a path to victory for Romney. In last month’s NBC-Marist poll of Iowa, Gingrich had a large lead over Romney (and the other GOP rivals) among Tea Party supporters. But in this new poll, Tea Party supporters -- who make up about half of all likely caucus-goers -- are splintered. Santorum gets 20% from them, Romney and Paul get 17%, Gingrich 16%, Perry 15%, and Bachmann 10%. So six candidates are WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR among Tea Party supporters. Simply stunning. “This is the Romney dream scenario,” Miringoff says. “When you look at the Tea Party and conservatives, they are all splintered.” And it explains how Romney getting 25% of the vote on Tuesday -- the exact percentage he received when he finished in second in Iowa four years ago -- could put him in first this time around.

*** A lack of enthusiasm for Romney (and why he could still lose): So while Romney might benefit from a splintered conservative vote, his support isn’t the strongest. That honor goes to Santorum with 59% strongly supporting him. Next is Paul at 54%, then Perry at 52%, and Romney comes in fourth at 51%. Iowa voter Carolyn Erickson told NBC News yesterday that she is leaning toward Romney because her preferred candidate -- Bachmann -- is unlikely to win. "Even though I love Michelle Bachmann and would like to see her maybe be vice president or whatever, I just don't think that she has a chance.” So the danger for Romney is that people who are leaning to him (because of electability, etc.) don’t show up on Jan. 3.