POLITICO/George Washington University: empate estadístico

POLITICO:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from last Monday through Thursday — shows Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percent, 49 to 48 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but reflects a race that remains statistically tied.

Obama estaría ganando el voto temprano por 8 puntos; hace cuatro años a estas alturas lo estaba ganando por 15 puntos.

Obama leads by 8 points among those who have already voted, 53 to 45 percent. These early voters represent 15 percent of the electorate, with many more expected to vote in the next few days — though Hurricane Sandy could change that.

El entusiasmo sigue favoreciendo a Romney.

But the GOP nominee maintains a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent.

By any measure, the race is neck-and-neck: 43 percent say they will “definitely” vote Romney, compared to 42 percent who say the same of the president.

Continúa la brecha de género.

(...) Obama leads among women by 11 points, 54 to 43 percent.

(...) Men, meanwhile, support Romney over Obama by 12 points, 55 to 43 percent.

Romney gana entre los independientes.

Romney, though, is again winning independents. Driven largely by the economy, the Republican now leads with this set of swing voters by 10 points, 50 to 40 percent.

Los votantes confían más en Romney en economía.

And the economy threatens to derail the president as much as ever: 54 percent overall disapprove of how he’s handled the most overwhelmingly important issue in the campaign. That’s the highest level since August. Nearly six in 10 disapprove of how the president is handling the budget and spending. And 56 percent believe the country is on the wrong track — 48 percent strongly so.

Romney is favored by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent, both on the questions of which candidate will better grow the economy and create more jobs. Significantly more strongly disapprove of his job performance, 44 percent, than strongly approve, 37 percent.

Among those who describe pocketbook issues as their top concern, which is 7 in 10 voters, Romney leads 56 to 41 percent.

La favorabilidad de Romney sigue subiendo. La de Obama se mantiene.

Romney’s personal favorability has also continued to grow in the wake of the debates. He’s now viewed positively by 52 percent of respondents, up from 47 percent at the start of the month. Only 43 percent view him unfavorably, the lowest number since the primaries.

While Obama’s overall favorability is roughly the same, 51 percent, he finds himself underwater in the suburbs. Only 44 percent of suburban voters view Obama positively, compared to 54 percent who see him unfavorably. It’s a significantly bigger spread in rural America, but it’s offset by his 65 percent favorability in urban areas.

Obama gana en política exterior y en empatía con la clase media.

Obama maintained the nine-point foreign policy advantage he carried into the third and final debate last Monday, which focused on the subject. Asked which candidate has a better foreign policy, Obama is ahead 52 to 43 percent.

That debate in Florida also helped the president retake the lead on which candidate is the stronger leader, 49 to 46 percent, a four-point swing his direction from last week. Obama also grew his lead on the question of who “shares your values” from two to three points.

Obama retains an edge on other substantive issues. He’s up 2 points on which candidate has the better tax policy, six on who is better for Medicare and 13 on who stands up more for the middle class.

Tradicionalmente, aparte de la encuesta periódica, el Battleground Poll también hace una proyección de voto basándose en un modelo más apretado de votantes probables, que POLITICO no lleva en su artículo. La proyección de esta semana anticipa una victoria de cinco puntos para Romney:

The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent.  The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

(...) The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll.  Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.

The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.  Goeas is a Republican, Lake a Democrat.  The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.

Aquí podéis ver el grado de fiabilidad de la proyección del Battleground Poll en años anteriores.