Barómetros de OH y NH auguran una elección muy igualada

Suffolk University ha sondeado un condado de Ohio (Lake) y dos ciudades de New Hampshire (Epping y Milford) que acostumbran a votar por el candidato que termina ganando esos estados. El resultado otorga a Romney una ligera ventaja que no es concluyente porque los dos candidatos se mantienen por debajo del 50%.

In Lake County (Ohio), Romney led Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with Independent Richard Duncan receiving 4 percent and Stewart Alexander (Socialist Party) receiving 1 percent, while 2 percent were undecided and 4 percent refused a response. Romney led 49 percent to 44 percent among those planning to cast ballots and led 43 percent to 41 percent among those who had already voted. Duncan, an Ohioan listed on the presidential ballot, received most of his support from voters who have already cast ballots for him in Lake County, causing neither major candidate to reach a decisive 50 percent there.

“What better place to decide this presidential election than on the banks of Lake Erie,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “A word of caution about Lake County. It is widely recognized as an Ohio bellwether, correctly predicting the last four presidential elections. But there have been some elections where it has trended more Republican. That was the case in 1996 and 2008, where Lake County voted for the Democratic nominees who won, but still leaned more Republican than the statewide vote.”

Two New Hampshire towns, Epping and Milford, have mirrored the statewide New Hampshire vote in four out of four presidential elections going back to 1996. In Milford, Romney led Obama 51 percent to 46 percent and in Epping, a closer bellwether, Romney led Obama 49 percent to 47 percent.

En 2008, Obama ganó Ohio con el 51% de los votos y el condado de Lake con el 50%; ganó New Hampshire con el 54% y ganó Epping con el 53% y Milford con el 52%.