Encuestas finales de Rasmussen y Battleground Poll

Rasmussen: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll of Election 2012 shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate.

Both candidates are viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide.

When it comes to the economy, 50% trust Romney more, while 47% have more confidence in the president.

(...) Rasmussen Reports figures include both those who have already voted and those likely to vote. Among those who have already voted, 43% are Democrats and 33% Republican. Among those expected to vote today, 39% are Republican and 37% Democrat. Overall, 39% of voters are projected to be Democrats and 37% Republicans.

One key to the outcome on Election Day will be the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate. In 2008, approximately 74% of voters were white. Among those who have already voted, 67% are white. Among those expected to vote today, 77% are white.

En 2008, Rasmussen pronosticó Obama 52%, McCain 46% y el resultado final fue Obama 52.9%, McCain 45.7%.

En 2004, Rasmussen pronosticó Bush 50.2%, Kerry 48.5% y el resultado final fue Bush 50.7%, Kerry 48.3%.

Battleground Poll: Obama 47%, Romney 47%; con un modelo de votantes probables más ajustado, Romney 51%, Obama 48%.

The final POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — conducted Sunday and Monday — shows Mitt
Romney and President Barack Obama each claiming 47 percent nationally.

Independents break for Romney by 15 points, 47 percent to 32 percent.

Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Obama leads 49 percent to 43 percent.

(...) The potentially more important number is a combination nationally of those who have already voted and those who call themselves “extremely likely” to vote. Romney leads this group by 3 percent, 51 percent to 48 percent.

Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who helps conduct the bipartisan poll, expects that many who say they are likely to vote will not wind up turning out. Among the 80 percent of those surveyed who he believes are most likely to actually vote, Romney leads by 3 points, 51 percent to 48 percent. Among the 70 percent he believes are most likely, Romney leads by 2 points, 51 percent to 49 percent.

“So in no case at any level does Obama break that 50 percent mark,” Goeas said early Tuesday. “I think you’re probably looking at a 2-point Romney win at this point … Then the question becomes: What about the Electoral College?”

Lake, the Democratic pollster, expressed confidence in an Obama victory. While Romney leads in the South, the Central Plains and the Mountain States, Obama is on top in the Northeast, Midwest and West.

“We’re behind the regions where there are no swing states, except Colorado,” she said.

En 2008, Battleground Poll pronosticó Obama 52%, McCain 47%, y en 2004, Bush 50%, Kerry 46%.

La media de las últimas encuestas nacionales otorga a Obama una ventaja de medio punto si el electorado es D+5. Romney gana los independientes por 8 puntos.



Hace cuatro años el electorado fue D+7 y Obama ganó por 7 puntos.