El impuesto único como tabla de salvación

The Washington Post:

“The flat tax is fairly simple and easier to explain, which may help Perry who to date has failed to make a coherent case for why he’s better on the economy than his rivals with private sector experience like [Mitt] Romney and [Herman] Cain,” said Sarah Huckabee, a Republican operative who headed former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty’s Iowa presidential bid earlier this year.

It’s the simplicity of the flat tax that makes it so politically appealing. Nearly all Americans — but especially Republicans — are fed up with the oftentimes baffling complexity of the current tax code and yearn for something better.

The idea of wiping out the entire tax code then in favor of a single tax bracket appeals to most peoples’ common sense. And, politically, it’s far easier to explain a flat tax in a 30-second television ad than trying to explain a more elaborate plan. (Worth noting: Romney has a 59-point economic plan.)

“It’s killer politics in New Hampshire,” said one veteran Republican operative not affiliated with any of the presidential candidates. New Hampshire, which will hold the first primary vote of the 2012 race, has long been home to flinty fiscal conservatives who are decidedly resistant to taxes.(The state has no income or property tax.)

But, simply embracing a flat tax won’t be enough for Perry, according to several GOP strategists.

First, he has to prove that he is simply not “me too-ing” Cain, who has made huge political strides in recent weeks with a heavy reliance on his “9-9-9” tax reform plan.

“The follower position usually loses out to the leader position,” said one senior party strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly. “The key is whether Perry can articulate the merits of the plan in a way that makes him sound like a true believer, rather than making it sound like a ‘catch-up to Cain’ political stunt.”

Sal Russo, a California-based Republican consultant, added that Perry “has to sell it, along with his energy plan and other ideas, as a prescription to create jobs and restore American prosperity.”

Looming over the discussion of the political efficacy of the flat tax is wealthy businessman Steve Forbes, who ran for president in 1996 and 2000 with the flat tax at the center of his policy platform. (Forbes is advising Perry on his proposal, according to a well-placed source.)

On neither occasion did he win the Republican nomination, but his advisers in that race insist that the flat tax proposal was a major boon to his campaign.

“The flat tax as Steve’s signature idea was more popular in the polls that any candidate,” said John McLaughlin who conducted survey research for both of Forbes’ presidential bids. “Steve started at zero in the polls against [former Kansas Sen. Bob] Dole. ... We were probably one more primary win away from knocking him out.”

Of course, Forbes also came under heavy criticism for the flat tax plan — the same sort of criticism that Perry can expect to be launched at his proposal.

For example, Dole ran ads attacking Forbes’ flat tax as a tax hike on middle class families; “the typical New Hampshire household will pay $2,000 more in taxes, and we lose our property tax deduction and our mortgage interest deduction,” said the narrator in one Dole-sponsored commercial.

Proposing a flat tax will win Perry attention — much of it positive. But, the selling of the policy will be key. Is this an idea whose time has come? Or simply the latest gimmick that will raise middle class taxes and leave a gaping revenue hole?