Des Moines Register:
1. DISORGANIZATION IN IOWA
Gingrich’s relative lack of organization handicaps him. He didn’t open an Iowa headquarters until last weekend, just 34 days before the caucuses. (Organizing took a long hiatus after his entire Iowa staff quit in early June, citing the candidate’s lackadaisical fundraising and campaigning.)
(...) Gingrich’s team is crunched for time to make voter ID calls to find his supporters and then create a strategy to keep them in their camp.
Gingrich was short on cash when other campaigns were buying lists of previous caucusgoers from the Republican Party of Iowa. Romney and Paul have target lists saved from prior presidential runs.
An “energy advantage” can make up for organization deficiencies, strategists said, but final “make the sale” contacts help.
“It’s boots on the ground,” Huckabee said of a successful caucus strategy. “They have to know who’s going to be there on caucus night: They need to list names and phone numbers. If they don’t have (it) at this point, it’s probably too late to get it.”
2. POUNDING FROM RELIGIOUS RIGHT
Iowa evangelical ministers have mobilized this month, thinking they need to guide their congregations away from the danger they see in a vote for Gingrich.
(...) 3. ELEVATOR RIDE TO THE TOP BY RIVALS
In a year of candidates rising and falling in the polls, did Gingrich correctly time his last-minute leap, or could someone else stick a hand in the elevator before the door closes?
Iowa history proves that come-from-way-behind leaps are possible, even in the last few weeks.
(...) 4. SURGE BY PERRY OR ROMNEY
Campaign strategists are on the watch for a potential surge from Perry, who has yet to have his second look. His paid media blitz and nonstop bus tour could snag a top three finish in Iowa, analysts said.
Gingrich is fortunate, just as Romney had been, that Christian conservatives in Iowa have not settled on one candidate. Their support is distributed to several social conservatives in the race. If evangelicals were to break for Perry late, he would have a real shot at the top tier.
Or, conservatives could come to the conclusion that Romney is the serious candidate who doesn’t light them on fire but can be trusted to govern the country, strategists said.
(...) 5. IF KINGMAKERS TURN AWAY
The “zipper” warnings from Christian conservatives are designed to stop endorsements from the Family Leader and its leader, Bob Vander Plaats.
Romney backer Christopher Rants, a fellow Sioux Citian, said an endorsement by the Family Leader “is worth something for its ability to activate people and to have their imprimatur.”
A nod from the Christian advocacy group, or, separately, from U.S. Rep. Steve King, would be huge for Gingrich because he could tap into networks that would supplement his organization.
Rivals worry that Gingrich is Vander Plaats’ obvious pick, because Gingrich chipped in nearly $200,000 toward Vander Plaats’ successful effort last fall to oust three Iowa Supreme Court justices who had participated in the ruling that legalized same-sex marriage.
(...) 6. BATTERING BY NEGATIVE ADS
(...) 7. INTOLERANCE FOR SLY PUNCHES
Staying positive is a tactic that has worked in the past.
(...) 8. HAMMERING BY FOX NEWS TALKERS
Iowa Republicans who like getting their news and opinions from Fox News are getting an earful from conservative commentators — Brit Hume, George Will, Dick Morris, Charles Krauthammer and others — questioning whether the GOP should pin its Obama-takedown hopes on Gingrich.
They’re hounding Gingrich for his Newt-against-the-world attitude, for being his own worst enemy and for stepping on capitalism when he accused Romney of “bankrupting people.”
In a television-driven election cycle, talkers on Fox and other networks could sway Iowans’ opinions more than negative advertising, GOP strategists said.
(...) 9. SEEDS OF DOUBT FROM ALL CORNERS
The anti-Gingrich drilling extends beyond TV.
(...) 10. QUICK SWING BY UNDECIDED VOTERS
No candidate has Iowa in a lock.
The polls tell you which candidate Iowans liked best that particular day, said strategist Mike Murphy, a Republican from California. Unlike general election polling, which doesn’t see wild swings in the last few weeks, caucus polling can quickly herd a new direction.
“We are taking pictures of birds moving around here,” Murphy said. “You have to be very careful thinking this is going to be a breeze — 16 days is a long time.”
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