Huntsman confía en tener su oportunidad

Time:

To figure out what Huntsman’s been up to, I dropped in on a house party last Thursday night in tony Bedford, New Hampshire. The party was hosted by Dan Byrne, 60, who owns a consulting company. Byrne is an independent who voted for Joe Biden in the 2008 primary and Barack Obama in the general election. Huntsman delivered his stump speech with his usual eloquence, noting his economic plan and his foreign policy experience as President Obama’s ambassador to China. Byrne was impressed. “He’s moderate, well balanced, statesman-like and very smart,” Byrne said. Byrne says he’ll vote for Huntsman in the primary but would be torn if the choice is Huntsman versus President Obama in the general election.

In fact, many of those at the party — at least the five of the half dozen I spoke with — were Democratic-leaning independents. The questions ranged from where the governor stood on abortion–the questioner was pro-choice– to the extent of his green jobs plan. For virtually any other candidate in the field, except maybe Romney, this group would probably have been an unreceptive audience. A frequent comment about Huntsman that night: “He’s the sanest one running.”

In any other early-voting state but New Hampshire, this room would’ve been exceptional. Republican primary voters tend to be red meat conservatives — just look at Iowa, where evangelicals and home schoolers can swing the caucuses. But Huntsman chose early on not to contest the anti-Romney, Tea Party primary.

For Huntsman, New Hampshire is all important. A surprise win would catapult him into the top tier and give him momentum heading into Mormon-heavy Nevada, South Carolina and, crucially, Florida. Which is why Huntsman has invested heavily in the Granite State. He’s spent more days there than Romney and Gingrich. Huntsman’s Super PAC, Our Destiny PAC, partially funded by his billionaire father, who has at times been criticized for pushing his son’s political career in a Joe Kennedy-esque way, has been airing ads there.

That said, Huntsman hasn’t been breaking his back. He’s averaged 1.87 public events for the days he’s been in the state — 107 events over 57 days — according to WMUR’s James Pindell’s handy candidate tracker. (The campaign disputes this, saying he’s done 114 events over 51 days for an average of 2.23.) He isn’t hitting the panic button as Wesley Clark in did 2004, when after months of lackadaisical campaigning — one or two events a day — Clark scheduled a dozen events a day in the final month before the primary. “I’m feeling the forward motion. I think it’s very real. I think it’s palpable,” Huntsman told me after the Bedford party. “Nobody’s doing New Hampshire like we’re doing New Hampshire this cycle. I don’t know that you could fit in any more than we do.”

Huntsman is in a better place in New Hampshire polls than Clark was seven years ago. He recently broke double digits, thanks in part to his Super PAC. He had his strongest showing yet in CNN’s recent national security debate. And both George Will and Erick Erickson have said in the past week that Huntsman deserves a good look. “Romney is today where he was in New Hampshire four years ago. His support is wide but thin,” says Mark McKinnon, a GOP strategist and former adviser to President George W. Bush. “If [former House Speaker Newt Gingrich] wins Iowa, New Hampshire could quickly turn into a three-way race between Newt, Romney and Huntsman. At least Huntsman is headed north instead of south like Romney. And the key is which way you’re headed going into the final weeks.”