Matemática electoral de Obama

CNN:

They know that the 2012 election will likely be decided by a razor-thin margin. It will be a battle for every vote.

(...) Team Obama is focused on finding multiple ways to get to 270 electoral votes.

First, the president is aiming to win all the states John Kerry won in 2004. That would bring him to 246 electoral votes -- including Pennsylvania's mother lode of 20. Add in New Mexico, which the president won in 2008, and that's five more electoral votes. Now he's at 251.

Then it gets hard. The final 19 electoral votes would come through a process of mix and match.

The scenario getting the most buzz inside the beltway: locking in Virginia -- 13 electoral votes -- and North Carolina -- 15 electoral votes -- which would get him to 279.

Democratic operatives like the demographics of these states because they see an influx of the young, highly educated workers who tended to be Obama voters in 2008.

But some Republicans doubt Obama can take North Carolina, in particular, pointing to its high unemployment rate -- currently around 10.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- and voting history -- Obama only won the state by 14,000 votes in 2008 (or 1%) and it went for the Republican candidate in seven out of the past eight elections. Before Obama, Jimmy Carter in 1976 was the last Democrat to win North Carolina.

A win in Florida -- with its 29 electoral votes -- would also do the trick. But if Florida's popular junior Sen. Marco Rubio is on the Republican ticket, the state could suddenly be out of reach. Even without Rubio, it will be a tough battleground state.

There are other paths to the 19 electoral votes they need.

Ohio has 18 electoral votes (yes, they still plan to campaign there) plus any of these other states: Nevada (6), Iowa (6), Colorado (9) or even Arizona (11), which, thanks to its growing Latino population, could now be in play.

(...) However, the Obama team has alternate routes to 270 if they lose some of the Kerry states.

For example, if he loses Pennsylvania -- which would take him down to 226 -- but wins North Carolina (15), Virginia (13) and Colorado (9), and adds two of the following three states -- Iowa (6), New Mexico (5), Nevada (6) -- he crosses 270.

Or he could lose Pennsylvania -- down to 226 -- and Wisconsin -- down to 216 -- but pick up Florida (29), North Carolina (15) and Virginia (13) and he crosses the finish line. Add Ohio (18) and Arizona (11) to the list of options and the possibilities grow.

Of course one wonders whether the president could sweep other battleground states if he can't prevail in Pennsylvania and hold the Kerry map.

Any road map to victory requires one big dose of reality: the president will have to fight hard to win votes in any battleground state -- old or new -- given the state of the economy.

And that won't be easy.