Paul tiene ahora un 44% de posibilidades de ganar en Iowa

Según el modelo de previsión de Nate Silver:

Mr. Paul also leads our forecast. The model gives him a 44 percent chance of winning Iowa based on the current standing of the candidates and the historic uncertainty of polling-based forecasts. Mr. Romney has a 32 percent chance of winning, while Mr. Gingrich’s chances have crashed to 15 percent.

There remains a chance that Mrs. Bachmann, Mr. Perry or Rick Santorum could become a factor in Iowa. Mr. Paul and Mr. Romney are in a somewhat favorable position for now with support split about evenly between these three candidates. But there is still time for any of them to finish at 20 percent or higher with a late surge. The three — especially Mr. Santorum and Mrs. Bachmann — have reasonably strong favorability ratings, so voters could rally behind one of them if they appear to have late momentum.