Juego de expectativas en Ames

First Read (MSNBC):

(...) One, Pawlenty needs a strong showing -- it’s hard to envision him winning the GOP nomination without finishing first or a very strong second on Saturday.

Two, if Pawlenty has a lot riding on Ames, so does Bachmann, who’s looking to keep her front-runner status in the Hawkeye State, particularly with Perry now entering the field, too.

Three, don’t overlook Romney; even though he’s not making a major play in Ames (in fact, he’s in New Hampshire today), he’s had the ability to pull off strong straw poll showings in past.

And four, don’t forget about Ron Paul, who expects to finish no worse than third (Herman Cain also has said he’s expecting a top-three showing).

Every major unaffiliated veteran Iowa Republican strategist believes Bachmann, Pawlenty, and Paul will be the top 3, just unclear of order. The chatter we hear out here goes like this: Bachmann's organization may be too Des Moines-centric; Pawlenty has the best organization, but there's been little passion on the trail and he's struggled to get folks to show up at events; Paul's campaign is much more sophisticated than it was four years.

Also, many smart Iowa GOPers tell us: keep an eye on Santorum: he's been TIRELESS; If there is a surprise top-3 finisher, it could be him. (...)