Sigue la incertidumbre sobre el calendario de primarias

First Read (MSNBC):

*** Calendar chaos? The GOP presidential field is mostly set, the future debates (including our NBC-Politico one on Sept. 7) are scheduled, and the full-fledged campaigning has already begun. The one thing we’re missing: an actual primary calendar. According to Republicans monitoring this subject, there are two different timeline scenarios. The first is the RNC-sanctioned February start date: Iowa goes Feb. 6, New Hampshire Feb. 14, Nevada, Feb. 18, South Carolina Feb. 28, and Super Tuesday is March 6. The second is the more chaotic January (or even December) start date: States like Arizona and Florida -- risking losing half their delegates and other penalties -- set their primaries early, pushing Iowa, New Hampshire, and other states into January or earlier. Which scenario is more likely? Although this remains a fluid situation, one plugged-in Republican eyeing the calendar process for one of the campaigns says there’s a “99%” chance it begins in early January instead of February. So start making your New Year’s Eve plans in Des Moines now. Or at least buy refundable air tickets.

*** So when will we know? Per NBC’s John Bailey, Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) must announce the date of her state’s primary at least 150 days in advance. So if she wants to set it on Jan. 31, which seems to be the case, the announcement has to come on or before Sept. 2. Meanwhile, Florida’s committee to select a primary date has until Oct. 1 to determine a date. (Oct. 1 is the RNC’s deadline for a state changing its primary/caucus date.)

*** And how long will it last? There are also two scenarios for how long the primary season will last. One is the early knockout -- like in ‘04 -- when John Kerry essentially wrapped up the Democratic nomination after winning both Iowa and New Hampshire. And two is the long, bloody battle -- a la ’08 -- when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton duked it out until June. Given that the earlier states will award their delegates proportionally and given that the later states (like California in June) can be winner-take-all, there’s an increasingly likelihood that the GOP nomination fight won't mathematically end until May or June. That could either help the eventual nominee (Obama's long primary season helped put Indiana and North Carolina into play), or hurt him/her (with just five months to focus on the general election against a sitting president).

*** A final calendar point to chew on: You could argue that the still-fluid primary calendar might benefit Perry, if the race (as expected) turns into a Romney-vs.-Perry battle. Consider that many of the post-Iowa/New Hampshire/South Carolina contests will take place in the South. For instance, Super Tuesday on March 6 will feature Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. (It also features Massachusetts and Vermont.) The next week brings us primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. Then on March 24 comes Louisiana. And to see Perry's strength in the South, just look at the latest Gallup poll, which shows him leading Romney in the South, 39% to 12%. The good news for Romney: He has the money advantage (which helps in a long race) and these states will award delegates proportionally (which allows him to rack up delegates even if he loses the state). But you can see how important Florida -- whenever that primary occurs -- will be to Romney and his momentum heading into those Super Tuesday (and beyond) states.