Rasmussen desmiente que Romney sea el más elegible

Rasmussen:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows the President earning 43% of the vote if Texas Governor Rick Perry is the GOP nominee. Perry attracts support from 40%. Ten percent (10%) say they’d prefer some other candidate while seven percent (7%) are not sure.

If Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is the GOP candidate, the president leads 43% to 39%. In that match-up, 12% would prefer some other candidate and seven percent (7%) are not sure.

With former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney as his opponent, the president leads 46% to 38%. In an Obama-Romney contest, eight percent (8%) would look for a third party option while nine percent (9%) are not sure.

Si nos fijamos en detalles internos del análisis nos daremos cuenta de la inutilidad de estas encuestas que enfrentan al Presidente con posibles pero no definitivos rivales. El apoyo al Presidente entre los independientes está en los 40s bajos, y aún así lidera en la general por la falta de unanimidad entre los republicanos.

Perry lo hace mejor que Romney porque el apoyo de las bases es más intenso. Pero en este momento incluso él logra menos de tres cuartas partes del voto republicano. Bachmann y Romney menos de dos terceras partes del voto partidista. Cuando uno de ellos sea el nominado es de esperar que esté ganando más de 9 de cada 10 votos republicanos.

Perry leads Obama by 69 percentage points among Republicans. Bachmann leads by 61 among GOP voters and Romney by 59. The president leads all three among unaffiliated voters. However, the president’s support among unaffiliateds ranges from 41% to 44% and a quarter of unaffiliateds remain either undecided or interested in a third party option.

A Generic Republican leads the president by five percentage points.